The Ukraine War: What to Watch for in Ukraine’s Spring Offensive – And When Will the Fighting End?

• While Ukraine’s counteroffensive may enjoy some success, it is unlikely to result in outright military defeat of Russia. The war is likely to continue in the medium- to long-term (US Defense officials have consistently counseled US defense manufacturers to anticipate the war to continue for as long as five years).

• Ukraine has an advantage of morale, quality of equipment, and operational/tactical capability. Russian forces are exhausted, ill-equipped, poorly trained, and demoralized. But Russia has an advantage of manpower and has begun mitigating logistical and production constraints.

• The counteroffensive likely will play out into October. US officials we have spoken with have counseled against judging the reported outcomes so far and caution in trusting early reports as both sides try to shape the narrative.

• Watch for increased risk to critical infrastructure (e.g., dams, nuclear power plants, gas and ammonia pipelines) as fighting increases and intensifies.

Source: UK Defense Ministry; The Economist