The US House of Representatives: Can Either Party Break Out with a Sizeable Majority?

A four-seat GOP majority in the House – with a loud GOP dissent faction – makes the current majority fragile. It was not much better than the last Congress for Democrats in the majority.

• Speaker McCarthy is constantly at risk of a motion to vacate the Chair (a no-confidence vote). It only takes one Republican member to rise and call for such a no-confidence vote. And he only has a fourseat majority.

• McCarthy’s first major threat was/is the debt ceiling vote. The 12 appropriation bills are next and require incredible party discipline. But McCarthy must placate the Dissidents in some way, and the economic outlook are all critical factors for the Republicans.

• Does President Biden’s recent move to the center suggest the Democratic Party will move with him and recruit a new class of more moderate House candidates?

Appendix: The US Electoral Calendar - What to Watch and When