European Outlet Shopping Update May 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
European Outlet Centres – Current Position Today there are XXX outlet centres operating across Europe (excluding Turkey) with a gross lettable floor space provision greater than 5,000 m². This map shows the major schemes, categorised by FSP’s four tier price position.
Source: FSP
2
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
2008 - 2017 Sales Growth FSP has estimated the size of the European market every year since 2008.
Source: FSP
3
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
2017/18 – Highlights Month
Outlet Centre / Operator
Country
News
May
Villefontaine
FR
The Village: the new brand village opens 30 minutes from Lyon
May
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
May
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
May
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
May
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
May
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
May
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
May
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
April
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
April
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
April
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
March
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
February
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
February
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
February
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
January
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
January
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
January
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
January
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
December
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
December
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
December
Factory Warsaw Ursus
PL
Neinver and TH Real Estate has completed purchase of Warsaw retail outlet Source: FSP
4
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
2017 – Highlights Month
Outlet Centre / Operator
Country
News
November
Scotch Corner Richmond
XXXX
XXXX
November
McArthurGlen - Malaga
XXXX
XXXX
November
McArthurGlen
XXXX
XXXX
November
Alpes The Style Outlets
XXXX
XXXX
November
Atlantic Village
XXXX
XXXX
October
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
October
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
October
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
September
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
September
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
August
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
July
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
July
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
July
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
June
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
June
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
June
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
June
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
June
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
Source: FSP
5
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Outlet Supply Per Capita – May 2018 The adjacent chart compares the provision of outlet centre floor space per capita across a selection of European countries. On average there are XXX people for every square metre of outlet centre floor space in Europe XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXX
NB Excludes minor schemes below 5,000 sqm e.g. Kilver Court (UK), Galerie Fanal (FR) and Space Outlet (IT)
6
May 22, 2018
Source: FSP
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
The Leading Markets – 2017 Trading Performance
Country
Outlet Centres
Total Area (gross Total Sales (€Bn sqm) ex VAT)
Average Size (sqm)
Average Sales (€Mn ex VAT)
Average Sales Density (€/sqm)
Italy
XX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXXX
United Kingdom
XX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXXX
Germany
XX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXXX
France
XX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXXX
Spain
XX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXXX
Netherlands
XX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXXX
Austria
XX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXXX
Switzerland
XX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXXX
Poland
XX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXXX
Russia
XX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXXX
Portugal
XX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXX
XXXXX
1
NB Excludes minor schemes below 5,000m 2 e.g. Kilver Court (UK), Galerie Fanal (FR) and Space Outlet (IT)
2
NB UK density excluding Bicester Village €3,645/m2 (£295/ft2) Source: FSP
7
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Outlet Centre Formats – Performance & Mix Outlet Villages are the most popular format in Europe, accounting for XX% of total outlet centre floor space and XX% of sales. The charts below illustrate some of the reasons behind this popularity.
Source: FSP
8
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Top 30 European Outlet Centres
Source: FSP
9
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Appendix Customer Demand
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Outlet Shopper Demand
Source: FSP
11
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Outlet Development Capacity – May 2018
Source: FSP
12
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
European Outlet Centres – Development Capacity Development of outlet centres has historically matched the Europe’s population distribution, however there are still a number of geographical gaps e.g. Frankfurt, Lviv, and Odessa XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
13
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Investors and Operators
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Leading Investors Share of Total Turnover
Share of XXXXX Area
Source: FSP
15
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Leading Operators – Market Share
Source: FSP
16
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Top 4 Operators – Share of Sales & Space
Source: FSP
17
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Top 4 Operators – Retail Mix Advantage
Source: FSP
18
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Occupiers
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Top 25 Occupiers – May 2018
Source: FSP
20
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Top European Outlet Brands - 2018
Source: FSP
21
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
The Leading Markets – Occupier Growth
Source: FSP
22
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
The Leading Markets – Occupiers
Source: FSP
23
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
2017/18 Brand Expansion
Source: FSP
24
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Expanding Occupiers in Key Markets
Source: FSP
25
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Evolving Fashion Markets
Source: FSP
26
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Development Activity
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Planned Openings in 2018 & 2019 (New Sites)
Source: FSP
28
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Outlet Industry Expansion
Source: FSP
29
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Outlet Industry Expansion
Source: FSP
30
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Outlet Development Capacity – with Planned Openings
Source: FSP
31
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Investment Opportunities
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Key Performance Driver
Source: FSP
33
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
FSP Brand Model
Source: FSP
34
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Investment Opportunities
Source: FSP
35
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Conclusion
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Conclusions
37
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
About FSP
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Key Facts About FSP Founded in 1977. Now part of St Ives Group Advise owners, developers, managers and occupiers of retail property Experienced team of 20 people, with retailing backgrounds Unique Retailer and Outlet Centre Databases Pan European demographic and expenditure data Working with many of the leading players in the European property market Specialist knowledge and track record in Shopping Centres, Retail Parks and Outlet Centres Experience includes over 100 Outlet Centre projects in 30 countries Recognised throughout Europe as leading authority upon Outlet Centre shopping Since January 2011, FSP has worked in Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovakia, Switzerland and Ukraine
39
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
FSP European Projects FSP projects include: Shopping Centres Retail Parks Outlet Centres Leisure Parks High Streets Transport Hubs Central London Specialists Markets Mixed Use Offices
40
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
FSP track record – Outlet Centres Billund Quality Outlets, Billund (DK) – Feasibility & Leasing Support
City Outlets Paris, Paris (FR) – Feasibility & Leasing Support Crespina Outlet Village, Pisa (IT) – Feasibility Designer Outlet Leipzig, Brehna (DE) – Pre Acquisition Designer Outlet Soltau, Soltau (DE) – Pre Acquisition Designer Outlet Wolfsburg, Wolfsburg (DE) – Pre Acquisition Honfleur Outlet Village, Honfleur (FR) – Feasibility & Leasing Support Landquart Village, Chur (CH) – Pre Acquisition L’Usine Chanel Outlet, Calais (FR) – Tenant Mix Strategy McArthurGlen Swindon, Swindon (UK) – Feasibility McArthurGlen Troyes, Troyes (FR) – Tenant Mix Strategy Mill Green Designer Outlet, Cannock (UK) - Feasibility Nailloux Outlet Village, Toulouse (FR) – Trading Gap One Fashion Outlet, Bratislava (SK) – Feasibility & Leasing Support Prague The Style Outlets, Prague (CZ) – Feasibility & Leasing Support Premier Outlets Center, Budapest (HU) – Trading Gap Rosada Factory Outlet, Roosendaal (NL) – Pre Acquisition
Scotch Corner The O2, London (UK) – Feasibility & Leasing Support Valmontone Outlet, Rome (IT) – Initial Pre Acquisition Zsar Outlet Village, Vaalimaa (FI) – Feasibility & Leasing Support 41
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
FSP Services for Investors and Developers FSP consultancy services: Identify how outlet centres are currently performing Quantify scope for sales and income growth Identify occupier risk and sustainable rental income Quantify how additional space or improved mix will increase sales and income Understand opportunities to reposition underperforming assets Add industry insight, occupier performance and customer insight to strategies
Add best practice and innovation to create successful development projects Brief investors on prospects for successful development / acquisitions Make a compelling case for target occupiers to lease space
42 42
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
FSP Services for Outlet Brands Interactive European Outlet Centre Map Zoom in and out using Google maps Classifies European outlet centres by retail mix Click to see size, age, operator and retail mix details Free to use at; https://www.fspretail.com/products/interactive-outlet-centremap/ Outlet Insight Europe wide site profiling using consistent data Reports drive time population, purchasing power and fashion demand plus retail mix and site details Compares selected site against brand’s portfolio Compares selected site against industry averages Outlet Location Strategy Prioritises target countries and ideal portfolio size Prioritises target sites based upon mix and customers Identifies under-performing sites for rationalisation 43
May 22, 2018
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Ken Gunn Managing Director T+44(0)1494 474740 M+44(0)7773 779919 F+44(0)1494 474262 Ken@fspretail.com
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS 19 Manor Courtyard Hughenden Avenue High Wycombe UK, HP13 5RE T +44(0)1494 474740 F +44(0)1494 474262 fspretail@fspretail.com www.fspretail.com www.snap-shop.co.uk
Š 2018 Fripp, Sandeman and Partners Ltd. Whilst efforts have been made to verify the accuracy of the information presented in this Report, neither Fripp Sandeman and Partners Ltd, nor its affiliates, can accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on the information presented. The contents of this Report are strictly confidential in nature and should not be circulated.
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS