European Outlet Shopping June 2017
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
European Outlet Industry Update Introduction Recent News and Emerging Trends Occupiers Industry Update Conclusions
2
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Recent News and Emerging Trends
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
2016 – Highlights Month
Outlet Centre / Operator
Expansion
Country
News
January
Fleetwood Freeport
UK
Celebrates 20 years – sales up 5% in 2015
January
London Designer Outlet
UK
Strong Christmas trading – sales up 12%
January
Mill Green Designer Outlet
UK
Secretary of State gives go–ahead for 26,50sqm upscale outlet centre in the West Midlands
February
McArthurGlen Troyes / Roubaix
FR
Ares acquires McArthurGlen Troyes and Roubaix for €200m
February
Roppenheim The Style Outlets
FR
Records 28% increase in sales and 26% increase in footfall over winter sales period
March
Fashion House Bucharest
RO
2015 Sales growth of 10.5% vs 2014
March
Metropolitan Outlet, Bydgoszcz
PL
Opening Spring 2018 – Neinver to operate
March
The Outlet / Junction One
UK
Acquired by Tristan Capital Partners for €58m
March
Torino Outlet Village
IT
Arcus to open 19,500sqm outlet village 23 March 2017
April
Fashion Outlet in Zevenaar
NL
Wins planning approval
April
City Outlet Bialystok
PL
2.5 m visitors in first year of trading
April
Designer Outlet Wolfsburg
DE
Bayerische Versorgungskammer purchases site for €125m (5%)
April
Hackney Walk
UK
First phase - 12 units – opens
April
Viaduc Village
FR
IDEC takes over project near Millau viaduct – TORG to operate
April
Fashion Outlet Leipzig
DE
Phase 1 (11,000sqm) opens – Neinver to operate
May
Bicester Village
UK
Value Retail reports 6.3 million visits in 2015 - €35,354 /sqm sales density
May
Designer Outlet Algave
PO
IKEA / ROS begin construction - due to open 2017
May
Rosada Fashion Outlet
NL
8,000sqm Phase 2 opens
June
Designer Outlet Croatia
HR
IKEA / ROS to start construction of 15,000sqm near Zagreb in 2017 - opening in 2018
June
Freeport Braintree
UK
Hugo Boss to open new Green, Orange and Hugo concept store
June
Gunwharf Quays
UK
Armani to open new store
June
McArthurGlen Provence
FR
70% leased - Planned opening Spring 2017 Source: FSP
4
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
2016 – Highlights Month
Outlet Centre / Operator
Performance Country
News
June
The Village, Villefontaine
FR
Foundation stone laid
July
London Designer Outlet
UK
Like for like sales up 24% in the 4 weeks after Brexit vote
July
VIA Outlets
ES
Acquires Festival Park, Mallorca
August
Freeport Talke
UK
Barbour opens new store
August
Neinver
CZ
Neinver partners with The Prague Outlet to create Prague The Style Outlets
September
Deltapo Outlet
IT
Plans to open in 2017
September
Grantham Outlet Village
UK
Plans for 25,000 sqm outlet village launched by Roja Developments
September
Honfleur
FR
Resolution / Advantail have pre-let 50%. Construction underway. Opening Autumn 2017
September
Sambil Madrid Outlet
ES
Leisure and Outlet centre opens March 2017
October
De Bradelei
UK
Operator of 3 small UK outlet centres in administration
October
Fashion House Moscow
RU
Phase 2 opens - 4,500 sqm
October
Princess Quay, Hull
UK
Next to anchor Realm's Princes Quay development
October
Rosada Fashion Outlet
NL
Sales up 54% since opening of Phase 2
October
Villadecans - The Syles Outets
ES
Neinver and TH Real estate opens new 19,800 sqm outlet centre near Barcelona
November
Kildare Killage
IE
Like for like sales up 8% - footfall up 30%
November
Lowry Designer Outlet
UK
Plans announced for new food terrance
November
Neinver / TH Real Estate
November
McArthurGlen Malaga
ES
Construction of 30,000 sqm outlet village to start in Q1 2017, with opening in 2018
December
Dalton Park
UK
7% uplift in footfall and 12% increase in sales following opening of Phase 2 in September
December
VIA Outlets
December
Kilver Court
UK
Announces to add 5,000 sqm in 4 phases by 2021
December
Scotch Corner Outlet Village
UK
Secretary of State gives go–ahead for new 23,381sqm upscale scheme following Public Inquiry
Neinver / TH Real Estate acquire six sites from IRUS Fund
Acquires Zweibrucken, Villa Do Conde, Seville and Wroclaw for €587m
Source: FSP
5
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
2017 – Highlights Domination Month
Outlet Centre / Operator
Country
Innovation
News
January
Lakeside Village, Doncaster
UK
Lakeside Village sales rise 5% during 2016
January
Rosada Fashion Outlet
NL
Acquired by McArthurGlen from Resolution
January
Zsar Outlet
FI
Nike, Hugo Boss, Guess and Le Creuset announced – Phase 1 now 80% leased or reserved
February
Hermes
UK
Braintree Freeport, Clarks Village and Junction 32 post sales growth of 6.7% in 2016
February
Gloucester Quays
UK
Ted Baker to open 220sqm store
March
Royal Quays
UK
Xtreme Bounce leases 2,200sqm for a new trampoline and family entertainment area
March
Wroclaw Fashion Outlet
PL
Via Outlets rebrand Factory Outlet Wroclaw – new brands include Puma, and Mountain Warehouse
April
McArthurGlen Roermond
NL
11,500sqm Phase 4 extension opens
April
McArthurGlen Provence
FR
McArthurGlen open 23rd European outlet centre
April
McArthurGlen Parndorf
AT
5,500sqm extension opens – 20 new stores include Under Armour
April
Designer Outlet Remscheid
DE
20,000sqm development receives building permit
April
Roppenheim The Style Outlets
FR
Sales rise 18% and visitors rise 16% in 2016
May
Land Securities
UK
Acquires Braintree Freeport, Clarks Village and Junction 32 for £332.5m from Hermes
May
Batavia Stad
NL
5,500sqm extension opens
May
Livingston Designer Outlet
UK
On the market for c.£100m – 6% yield
May
McArthurGlen
IT
Italian outlets record double digit sales growth in 2016
May
Kildare Village
IE
Phase 3 planning application lodged – 29 new shops
June
Dalton Park
UK
Sales up 10%, footfall up 16% in year following extension
June
Designer Outlet Croatia
HR
Work begins on 15,000sqm scheme near Zagreb - opening in 2018
June
Billund Quality Outlets
DK
Resolution form joint venture with Lalandia to develop scheme next to Legoland
June
Peakside Capital
PL
Peakside Capital sells three Polish outlet centres to Deutsche Asset Management
June
Princes Quay, Hull
UK
Realm opens pioneering outlet deck in shopping mall Source: FSP
6
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Expansion
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
8
9
10
11
12
Outlet Supply Per Capita – June 2017 Country
Italy
Count of Outlet Centres (>5km2)
Total Area (gross m2) 2017
Population in Population 2017 (million) per m2
28
707,088
59.8
85
Austria
3
86,100
8.6
100
Switzerland
5
83,000
8.5
102
Portugal
3
98,750
10.3
104
United Kingdom
43
622,550
65.5
105
Spain
25
434,912
46.1
106
France
25
421,982
64.9
154
4
105,700
17.0
161
Poland
13
226,345
38.6
170
Germany
17
304,490
80.6
265
5
99,500
143.4
1,441
Netherlands
Russia
Source: FSP
NB Excludes minor schemes below 5,000 sqm e.g. Kilver Court (UK), Galerie Fanal (FR) and Space Outlet (IT) 13
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Performance
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
2008 - 2017 Sales Growth
Estimated Total Turnover (€m, exc. VAT)
20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2008
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: FSP
15
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
The Leading Markets – 2017 Performance Country
Outlet Centres
Total Area (gross sqm)
Total Sales (€Bn ex VAT)
Average Size (sqm)
Average Sales (€Mn ex VAT)
Average Sales Density (€/sqm)
United Kingdom
43
622,550
€3.78
14,478
€87.9
€6,073
Italy
28
707,088
€3.48
25,253
€124.2
€4,917
Germany
17
304,490
€1.92
17,911
€113.2
€6,319
France
25
421,982
€1.78
16,879
€71.2
€4,216
Spain
25
434,912
€1.65
17,396
€66.0
€3,796
Poland
13
226,345
€0.52
17,411
€40.3
€2,316
Austria
3
86,100
€0.55
28,700
€184.9
€6,444
Switzerland
5
83,000
€0.48
16,600
€96.9
€5,838
Russia
5
99,500
€0.41
19,900
€81.2
€4,079
Netherlands
4
105,700
€0.88
26,425
€219.5
€8,308
Portugal
3
98,750
€0.34
32,917
€114.2
€3,471
1
NB Excludes minor schemes below 5,000 sqm e.g. Kilver Court (UK), Galerie Fanal (FR) and Space Outlet (IT)
2
NB UK density excluding Bicester Village €4,455/sqm (£295/sqft)
16
Source: FSP FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Top 20 European Outlet Centres Rank
Name
Country
Operator
Open Year
Format
Price Position
Gross Lettable Area (m2)
1 Value Retail - Bicester
United Kingdom
Value Retail
1995 Outlet Village
Luxury
22,071
2 McArthurGlen - Roermond
Netherlands
McArthurGlen
2001 Outlet Village
Luxury
46,700
3 McArthurGlen - Serravalle
Italy
McArthurGlen
2000 Outlet Village
Luxury
50,000
4 Value Retail - La Vallee
France
Value Retail
2001 Outlet Village
Luxury
21,400
5 Outlet City
Germany
Holy AG
2006 Town Street
Luxury
40,750
6 McArthurGlen - Parndorf
Austria
McArthurGlen
1998 Outlet Village
Luxury
36,500
7 Foxtown Mendrisio
Switzerland
Silvio Tarchini
1995 Outlet Mall
Luxury
30,000
8 McArthurGlen - Veneto
Italy
McArthurGlen
2008 Outlet Village
Luxury
32,500
9 McArthurGlen - Cheshire Oaks
United Kingdom
McArthurGlen
1995 Outlet Park
Upscale
31,123
Italy
McArthurGlen
2006 Outlet Village
Upscale
27,000
11 McArthurGlen - Castel Romano Italy
McArthurGlen
2003 Outlet Village
Luxury
31,200
12 Value Retail - Las Rozas
Spain
Value Retail
2000 Outlet Village
Luxury
22,000
13 Value Retail - La Roca
Spain
Value Retail
1998 Outlet Village
Luxury
24,500
14 Gunwharf Quays
United Kingdom
Land Securities
2001 Outlet Mall
Upscale
21,368
15 McArthurGlen - La Reggia
Italy
McArthurGlen
2010 Outlet Village
Luxury
26,400
16 McArthurGlen - Neumunster
Germany
McArthurGlen
2012 Outlet Village
Upscale
27,000
17 Value Retail - Fidenza
Italy
Value Retail
2003 Outlet Village
Luxury
20,767
18 Value Retail - Wertheim
Germany
Value Retail
2003 Outlet Village
Luxury
21,000
19 McArthurGlen - York
United Kingdom
McArthurGlen
1998 Outlet Mall
Upscale
22,761
20 Value Retail - Ingolstadt
Germany
Value Retail
2005 Outlet Village
Luxury
21,000
10 McArthurGlen - Barberino
Source: FSP
17
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Dominance
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Leading Operators – Market Share Country
Europe
United Kingdom
Italy
France
Poland
Spain
Germany Others
McArthurGlen
26.9%
25%
45%
16%
0%
0%
23%
34%
Value Retail
16.4%
25%
6%
27%
0%
31%
19%
7%
VIA Outlets
6.0%
0%
0%
0%
9%
11%
9%
16%
Neinver
5.7%
0%
6%
8%
42%
23%
2%
0%
Land Securities
3.7%
17%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Marques Avenue
2.8%
0%
0%
27%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Multi Outlet Management Italy
2.6%
0%
13%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
ROS Retail Outlet Shopping GmbH
2.1%
0%
2%
0%
23%
0%
7%
1%
Realm
2.0%
9%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Promos
1.6%
0%
8%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Advantail
1.4%
0%
0%
13%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Boundary Mill
1.2%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Peel Outlets
0.8%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Fashion Outlet Group
0.7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
Fashion House
0.7%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3% Source: FSP
19
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Leading Operators – Market Share Growth 45% 40%
% Share of Total Sales
35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0%
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: FSP
20
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Leading Investors Share of Total Turnover
Share of Floor Area
TH Real Estate: 10%
Value Retail & Ptnrs: 17%
TH Real Estate: 19%
VIA Outlets: 6%
Value Retail & Ptnrs: 5%
VIA Outlets: 8%
McArthurGlen & Ptnrs: 4%
McArthurGlen & Ptnrs: 6%
Neinver-TH: 6% Neinver-TH: 5% Land Securities: 3%
Land Securities: 4% Blackstone: 3%
Others: 34%
Silvio Tarchini: AEW Europe: 2% 2% Deutsche AM.: 2%
Others: 52%
Blackstone: 5% Silvio Tarchini: 1% AEW Europe: 3% Deutsche AM.: 3%
Source: FSP
21
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Innovation
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Planned Openings in 2017 & 2018 (New Sites) Country
Location
Name
Name
Year
GLA (sqm)
Czech Republic
Prague
Prague The Style Outlets
Neinver
2017
20,000
Portugal
Loulé
Designer Outlet Algarve
Retail Outlet Shopping
2017
17,000
France
Honfleur
Honfleur Normandy Outlet
Advantail
2017
13,000
United Kingdom
London
O2 Arena
Anschutz Entertainment Group
2018
20,000
France
Lyon
The Village, Villefontaine
Compagne De Phalsbourg
2018
20,000
Spain
Zaragoza
Torre Village Outlet
Retail Outlet Shopping
2018
20,000
Poland
Gliwice
Outlet Silesia
Blue Ocean
2018
20,000
Netherlands
Amsterdam
Amsterdam The Style Outlets
Neinver
2018
18,000
Germany
Werl
Werl The Style Outlets
Neinver
2018
17,000
Spain
Malaga
McArthurGlen Malaga
McArthurGlen
2018
17,000
Germany
Solingen
MyUrbanOutlet
2018
16,000
Croatia
Zagreb
Designer Outlet Croatia
Retail Outlet Shopping
2018
15,000
Poland
Toruń
Outlet Toruń
Blue Ocean
2018
14,000
Russia
St Petersburg
Fashion House St Petersburg
Fashion House
2018
13,000
Finland
Vaalimaa
Zsar Outlet Village
East Finland Real Estate
2018
12,000
Poland
Bydgoszcz
Metropolitan Outlet
Neinver
2018
11,500
Germany
Wuppertal
City Outlet Wuppertal
Retail Outlet Shopping
2018
10,000
France
La Cavalerie
Viaduc Village
The Outlet Resource Group
2018
7,500 Source: FSP
23
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Outlet Industry Expansion 350000
Floorspace Added (m²)
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Central Europe
Northern Europe
Southern Europe
Western Europe
Source: FSP
24
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Outlet Development Capacity – with Planned Openings
Source: FSP
25
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Occupiers
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Globalising Brands
27
Local Market Expansion
28
Young Brands
29
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
1479
1474
1538
1543
1626
Brand Urbanisation
30
Industry Update
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Current Position
Source: FSP
32
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Conclusion
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Conclusion Despite relatively weak economic growth and the disruptive influence of online shopping, outlet centres continue to perform very well It is FSP’s belief that outlet will continue to perform strongly into the future Development activity slowed in 2014, 2015 and 2016 but it will pick up in 2017, 2018 and 2019 There remains capacity to develop between 40 and 70 new outlet centres across Europe, although some of this capacity will be absorbed by expansions of existing sites New development opportunities are becoming more marginal, requiring developers / operators to adapt the outlet format to better fit local consumer, leisure and tourist markets Strong investor interest, particularly for assets managed by the industry’s leading operators has led to a marked increase in asset values. Funding for new development continues to be problematic and there is a large pipeline of in-fill developments With top quality stock in short supply, greater understanding of performance drivers is encouraging format and locational innovation, which is widening the definition of the outlet concept. This innovation is creating opportunities for new investors and this is likely to fuel continued development of new schemes for many years to come
FSP June 2017 34
June 29, 2017
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
Ken Gunn Managing Director
Miranda Botcherby Associate Consultant
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS
T+44(0)1494 474740 M+44(0)7773 779919 F+44(0)1494 474262
T+44(0)1494 474740
19 Manor Courtyard Hughenden Avenue High Wycombe UK, HP13 5RE
Ken@fspretail.com
Miranda@fspretail.com
F+44(0)1494 474262
T +44(0)1494 474740 F +44(0)1494 474262 fspretail@fspretail.com www.fspretail.com www.snap-shop.co.uk
Š 2017 Fripp, Sandeman and Partners Ltd. Whilst efforts have been made to verify the accuracy of the information presented in this Report, neither Fripp Sandeman and Partners Ltd, nor its affiliates, can accept any responsibility or liability for reliance by any person on the information presented. The contents of this Report are strictly confidential in nature and should not be circulated.
FSP RETAIL BUSINESS CONSULTANTS