Preparing Australian agriculture and food systems to thrive in a more volatile world

PERSPECTIVE

Preparing Australian agriculture and food systems to thrive in a more volatile world Words by Frank Sperling, Dr Katherine Wynn, Erin McClure and Dr Rose Roche The growth of Australian agriculture Australia is the world’s driest inhabited continent. It encompasses regions with some of the highest annual and inter-annual rainfall variability in the world. Much of its interior and most of its landmass is either classified as arid or semi-arid.

The remainder is characterised by a great diversity of climates ranging from tropical to temperate and associated agroecological zones.1 Within these given environmental settings, Australian agriculture has succeeded in producing more food than its population requires. In 2022-23, supported by favourable rainfall patterns and commodity prices, farm gate output climbed to a new record high at more than $92 billion, placing the ambition of realising $100 billion by 2030 within reach.2,3 More than 70% of the agricultural produce is destined for overseas.4 This international focus has also shaped the evolution of the agricultural system. The vastness of the landscape and demand for bulk commodities has led to intensified farming at scale, with the number of Australian farms persistently declining, while the average farm size is increasing.4

Taking a systems perspective on food While on aggregate the performance of Australia’s agricultural system can be viewed as a success story, a more systemic perspective on how food is produced and consumed reveals a range of challenges. Agriculture

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is exerting a significant footprint on Australia’s natural resources, amounting to more than 55% of landuse, 24% of water extraction and 11% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2020-21.4 Soil loss and environmental degradation are undermining the productive potential of land in several regions, while also threatening Australia’s biodiversity.5 Despite being one of the world’s wealthiest nations with the capacity of its food system to feed more than 80 million people and being deemed as one of the most food secure countries in terms of aggregate production, food and nutritional security is not a given for every Australian. More than 48% of households experienced anxiety about having enough food, and 3.7 million households (36%) faced either moderate or severe food insecurity during the last year.6 This means that these households had to limit the variety and quality of their food choices or even skip meals. Access to healthy diets is uneven.7 Obesity and diet related illnesses are on the rise.8 Food loss and waste is higher per capita than in other comparable high-income countries,9 while transportation bottlenecks present challenges for farmers to get their produce to markets or for remote and rural communities to consistently access affordable and healthy food.

A shifting risk landscape The risk landscape continues to evolve and become more complex as Australia’s agri-food systems increasingly face challenges beyond

past experiences. Australia’s catastrophic 2019-2020 bushfire season was followed by the disastrous 2021 and 2022 eastern Australian floods. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exert a strong influence on the inter-annual variability of Australia’s climate, with recent years witnessing repeated shifts between the El Nino and La Nina phases of ENSO. Drier-than-usual conditions and increased drought risk during El Nino, in conjunction with a positive IOD, created favourable conditions for the widespread bushfires in 2019-2020.10 Subsequently, La Nina brought above-average rainfall, contributing to flood events. The impacts of climate change are already visible and superimposed on existing climate variability, exacerbating temperature and other climatic extremes.11 For example, attribution studies conclude that the fire risk during the 20192020 bushfire season was further increased due to climate change.12 The recent climatic disaster events were intersected by the shock and economic disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and volatilities associated with market disruptions and geopolitical instability. This required pivoting the market orientation for some of the affected food commodities. Reviews during and following the pandemic highlighted Australia’s reliance on importing value added food ingredients and the concentration of food processing infrastructure.13 This reliance creates connectivity

challenges and associated vulnerabilities, particularly for remote regions.

Overall, recent years have seen a confluence of biophysical and socioeconomic shocks, which are superimposed on existing stressors, and have uncovered the interdependencies embedded in Australia’s agri-food system.

Changing global outlook for development The need to comprehensively manage risks and build more resilient food systems, comes at a time when food systems globally are confronted with multiple and competing demands and long-term development gains are being eroded.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were formulated and then endorsed as part of Transforming Our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in 2015,14 in the wake of the great strides that were made towards the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).15 The end of poverty and hunger seemed within reach, if enough resources and continuous commitment were provided.16,17 The spirit of international collaboration towards a better future was further exemplified by the Paris Agreement on climate change reached in the same year, where the international community committed itself to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to confine warming 1.5°C, while strengthening adaptation to climate change.18 The outlook has changed since then. From 2015 onwards progress towards zero hunger (SDG 2) first stagnated and then began to reverse. As a result of a series of climate and environmental shocks, the proliferation of conflicts and war, the impacts of the pandemic, rising food prices and other factors, relative and absolute hunger levels are now higher than they were in 2015 and an additional 122 million people suffered hunger in 2022 compared to pre-pandemic levels in 2019, thereby remaining at similar level as in 2021.19

UN estimates also suggest that 75 million more people suffered extreme poverty in 2022 than before the pandemic, while the Ukraine war and other conflicts and the cost-of-living crisis further push millions more into poverty.20 Meanwhile, the drop in greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) due to travel restrictions, lockdowns and reduced economic activity during the pandemic was short-lived.21 Global emission levels and atmospheric GHG concentrations have reached new record levels. Recent revised estimates suggest that the carbon budget to stay within the 1.5°C global warming limit will be used up within the next six years if current trends in emission rates continue.22 This places the world on a warming trajectory which together with pollution and the continuous erosion of the natural resource base, increasingly threatens global food security and human welfare.

Food systems are pivotal to sustainability The transformation of the global food system is generally recognised as pivotal for sustainable development.

The global food system at present is a primary driver of land use change, biodiversity loss, pollution and climate change while also being vulnerable

to these changes.23,24 Resolving the tension between delivering food and nutritional security, economic, social and environmental objectives through improved production practices, consumption behaviours and enabling conditions holds the key to regaining momentum towards the SDGs and Paris Agreement.

Being strongly embedded in the global context, this presents both challenges and opportunities to Australia’s agri-food system.

A multi-stakeholder consultation process led by the CSIRO identified a portfolio of measures and entry points of action to reshape Australian food systems.25 These are focused on enabling access to healthy and sustainable diets, minimising waste and improving circularity, facilitating Australia’s transition to net zero emissions, aligning resilience with socioeconomic and environmental sustainability and increasing value and productivity. This roadmap is intended as a contribution to deepening and integrating the stakeholder dialogue across the components of Australia’s food systems.

Preparing for multiple futures The Ukraine war, the Middle East conflict and shifting geopolitical alliances are a further illustration that we are confronted with deep

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PERSPECTIVE

uncertainties about the future. In the face of pressing global challenges will we live in a more fragmented world or will international collaboration ultimately prevail in the future? Will larger scale energy transitions gain sufficient traction to limit global warming close to 2°C or will we have to prepare Australia’s food system for a much warmer world and the associated consequences? Are we ready to contain another pandemic or other shock events?

Preparing for one scenario and ignoring the probability of other possible, high-impact futures will be insufficient. In an uncertain, multipolar world, Australia’s agrifood systems need to be agile and prepared for multiple futures. What are the key attributes and targets for Australia’s agri-food system and how will our ability to reach these targets be influenced under different national and global scenarios?

To help answer some of these questions and inform the discourse CSIRO is exploring through Ag2050,26 a new transdisciplinary multi-year initiative engaging diverse stakeholders, a range of narratives and scenarios and their implications for the evolution of Australia’s farming systems until 2050. This will require aligning resource availability, food and fibre production across the value chain to optimise the economic, social and environmental

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sustainability of Australia's agri-food system.

The benefit of acting now By strengthening the capacities of our agri-food system to anticipate, absorb, adapt and transform to diverse change scenarios, Australia can position itself as a national and international solution provider. The need to improve risk management and sustainability practices is globally recognised and evident in processes and collaborations emerging around the first ever United Nations Food System Summit (UNFSS) held in 2021.27 The UN Secretary-General’s report of the two-year stocktake summit in 2023 (UNFSS+2) highlighted that 126 countries had submitted food system pathways in the context.28 The climate conference (COP28) of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) held in the United Arab Emirates in late 2023 included a dedicated focus on the relevance of food systems to mitigating and adapting to climate change resulting in a declaration by 159 countries.29 Australia recently updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to the UNFCCC, detailing its ambition for economy-wide emission reductions by 43% in 2030 relative to 2005 and achieving net zero by 2050.30

Through identifying opportunities and enabling contributions, our agri-food and land-use sectors will be important in turning these ambitions into reality. Advancing and supporting sustainable and resilient practices and innovation will not only benefit Australians but also be an opportunity to export solutions abroad, given that Australia’s agrifood system operates from the tropics to the temperate region

Acknowledgements This article benefited from reviews given by Dr Pablo Juliano and Dr Patrick Mitchell. The authors are also grateful for helpful comments provided by Dr Javier Navarro Garcia.

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Frank Sperling is a Senior Principal Research Scientist with CSIRO Agriculture and Food.

Dr Katherine Wynn is Lead Economist and Agriculture and Food Lead at CSIRO Futures.

Erin McClure is a Senior Strategy Consultant at CSIRO Futures.

Dr Rose Roche is Principal Research Scientist and Lead of Ag2050, CSIRO Agriculture and Food. f

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