THE HIGH WATER MARK
THE HIGH WATER MARK
The Newsletter of the Floodplain Management Association August 2025 - Volume 35, Issue 3
Mission: To promote the common interest in reducing flood losses and to encourage the protection and enhancement of natural floodplain values.
Chair Brent Siemer City of Simi Valley 805.583.6805
Vice Chair Vince Geronimo Geronimo Engineering (916) 993-4606
Treasurer David Smith WEST Consulting (760)500-4145
Secretary Millicent Cowley-Crawford Woodard & Curran 415-321-3421
Past Chair Michael C. Nowlan Wood Rodgers, Inc. 916.326.5277
Director
Brittney Duncan Clark County RFCD 702-685-0000
Director John Moynier 626-440-2389
Director Debbie Neddenriep Carson Water Subconservancy District debbie@cwsd.org
Director Darren Suen San Joaquin Area Flood Control Agency darren.suen@sjafca.org
Director Mary Keller Placer County mkeller@placer.ca.gov
Director Rohini Mustafa Riverside County Flood Control and Water Conservation District romustaf@rivco.org
Director Remi Candaele Q3 Consulting rcandaele@q3consulting.net
Director Satish Kumar Wood Rodgers skumar@woodrodgers.com
Director Kayla Kelly-Slatten KSS Strategies, LLC.
Director Roger Leventhal Marin County DPW roger.leventhal@marincounty.gov
Director Clark Barlow AtkinsRealis clark.barlow@atkinsrealis.com
Strengthening Our Nation’s Levee System
At Forgen, we leave the planet better than we found it. Our geotechnical and specialty civil construction capabilities are applied each day to restore and strengthen our nation’s levee system for generations to come.
• Floodplain Studies
Hydrology
Hydraulics • Flood Forecasting/ Warning • Dam Safety • Sediment & Scour
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LETTER FROM THE CHAIR – “STAY ON TARGET”
Brent Siemer
What Does the Future Hold?
As I approach this final chapter of my professional journey and also prepare to pass the reins of FMA to the next generation, I find myself reflecting more often on a question that grows with each passing year: What does the future hold? Not just for me personally, but for our field, for our association, and most importantly, for those who will come after us.
Over the past 50 years, we have witnessed profound transformations. Not just incremental advances, but true paradigm shifts, changes as dramatic and complete as the metamorphosis of a caterpillar into a butterfly. The pace of innovation has been relentless, reshaping the landscape of our work, our relationships, and our lives. Will this increasing velocity of change continue? Or will it evolve into something even more unpredictable and unrecognizable?
I can vividly remember my first significant investment in technology: a handheld HP-25 calculator, which I purchased in 1975 for $250. At the time, I was making less than $3 an hour, so that was no small expense. But it felt revolutionary. The HP-25 didn’t just perform calculations, it required an entirely new way of thinking using “Reverse Polish Notation.” And it was more than just a device; it was a tool that altered the way I approached problem-solving.
But I also remember the serious debates surrounding it: Was it fair to use an electronic calculator in an academic setting? Was it a symbol of privilege to own one? Were my classmates put at a disadvantage if I were to use it when taking a test? In those days, we were still transitioning from the slide rule, a reliable, but cumbersome tool, that had served engineers and scientists for decades. But this technology was as threatening as it was inviting. Could it be embraced fairly? Wisely?
Fast-forward to today, and that old calculator has become a relic, literally a museum piece. Tools far more powerful than the HP-25 now live in our pockets, in our phones, watches, and even in our home appliances. What once constituted a technological and financial leap is now taken for granted. The kinds of calculations we once spent minutes working through can now be done in milliseconds, often automatically. That leap, from the slide rule to the smartphone, wasn’t just a change in tools; it engendered a change in mindset. And it’s a transformational process that continues to this day.
And yet, with every technological leap forward, we also introduce new complexities, and sober contradictions. While technology has connected us globally, it has also, at times, distanced us locally. I’ve sat in restaurants and watched couples dine together, with each absorbed by separate screens. I’ve visited my grandchildren only to be
greeted not with hugs and stories, but with the back of a VR headset and the pixelated landscape of Minecraft. It’s as though the very tools designed to bring us closer have, in many ways, built invisible walls between us.
So, I return to that central question: What does the future hold? Let’s try to answer it with the timeless journalistic framework: Who, What, Where, When, and Why.
Who will carry the torch of the Floodplain Management Association into the future?
It’s a humbling, and at times an extremely amusing thought, to imagine today’s “Emerging Professionals” as tomorrow’s seasoned veterans. Some of them may one day be seen as “relics” by those yet to come. But the real answer to who lies not in speculation, but in the actions we take today. Who are we influencing? Who are we mentoring? Who are we inviting into leadership roles? Who are we inspiring to stay the course through difficult times? Who will be our thought leaders? The future will be built by those we empower now. Perhaps the most influential figure in floodplain management fifty years from now is a student sitting in a classroom today, one who has yet to write their first policy paper or attend their first FMA conference. Our responsibility is to light the path, provide the tools, offer the encouragement, and provide the wisdom that they will need.
What will be the defining challenges of the next era?
Today, we wrestle with climate adaptation, environmental equity, and sustainable infrastructure. But years from now, these challenges may seem almost quaint in retrospect. Tomorrow’s challenges may involve managing water in an era of unprecedented climate variability, extreme droughts followed by flash floods, rising sea levels devastating entire coastlines, and increasingly frequent 1000-year storms that occur every few years. We may face ethical dilemmas that we can scarcely imagine today: How do we relocate entire communities? How do we equitably distribute climate adaptation resources? How do we manage AI-driven infrastructure systems that learn and evolve on their own?
The complexity of these challenges will demand more than technical expertise. Tomorrow’s obstacles may even require frameworks we haven’t even begun to conceive. It will require a deep sense of empathy, inclusivity, and a systems-thinking approach that bridges engineering, sociology, economics, and ecology. These problems will be interconnected, and so must be our solutions.
Where will our work be done?
In just the past few years, we’ve seen the workplace revolutionized. Virtual meetings, remote sensing technologies, digital twins of infrastructure systems; these are becoming standard. But in embracing the digital, are we losing something vital? Have we sacrificed our sense
of place? That sense of place, of shared geography and community, all matter deeply in floodplain management. After all, water flows through real terrain, affecting real people, in real communities, in real time.
Will future floodplain managers conduct their work entirely through augmented reality and autonomous systems, never stepping foot into a watershed? Or will we seek a hybrid model, one that blends the analytical precision of digital tools with the irreplaceable insights of boots-on-the-ground experience? I hope it’s closer to the latter. For there is still no substitute for standing transfixed by a river, watching the swirls of its current, and listening to the stories of those who have lived with it. As we embrace these new tools, let us not lose sight of the value of human presence and shared spaces.
When is perhaps the most pressing question of all.
Too often, we delay action in favor of more planning, more discussion, more waiting for the “right time.” But if there’s one truth that has followed me through my career, it’s this: There is no perfect time. The time to act, to innovate, to mentor, to lead, is always now.
As the saying goes, “Tomorrow never comes, except at Joe’s Crab Shack, where free crab is always promised tomorrow.” The humor, of course, is that “tomorrow” never comes. If we wait for perfect conditions, we risk never moving forward at all. Let us not defer what can be started today. So, whether it’s adopting a new framework, engaging in a tough conversation, or initiating a longoverdue change, the moment is now. It is always now.
Why is perhaps the most profound and enduring question. Each of us arrived at this profession by a different path. Some were drawn by technical interest, others by personal experience with flooding, or a desire to make a difference in their communities. For many of us, there is a shared reverence for water: its beauty, its necessity, its power. But beneath those different paths lies a common reverence for water. We are not simply engineers, planners, or administrators, we are stewards.
We are drawn to the water not only because it sustains us, but because it humbles us. It is at once our ally and our adversary, shaping both landscapes and lives. Thus, floodplain management is a calling rooted in respect for a force that is both life-giving and life-taking. Water connects us, and it constantly reminds us of our vulnerability and interdependence. To manage floodplains is to participate in a long tradition of stewardship, resilience, and care, not just for the built environment, but for the people who inhabit it.
Vision 2075 – One Person’s Ruminations
Let us imagine the year 2075. Humanity has the capability to build cities on Mars, perhaps even to manipulate weather, control floods with smart systems, or even
terraform landscapes here on earth. We may possess technologies that allow all this, yet despite all that, vast portions of Earth’s population still reside along rivers, lakes, and coastlines, continually vulnerable to the forces of water. Will the years between now and 2075 be remembered as a time of missed opportunities, or as a turning point? A period when we chose, collectively, to prioritize resilience over short-term gain? To collaborate instead of compete? To elevate equity and sustainability as guiding principles, not afterthoughts? Or will we look back on the intervening decades as overlooked possibilities, as decades of deferred decisions and missed opportunities?
On the other hand,
Or will 2075 reveal a different narrative? One in which humanity chose to invest in resilience and sustainability. One in which FMA and its dedicated members became catalysts for transformative progress, guiding communities through shifting floodplains, rising waters, and complex climate realities. A future in which we learned not just to adapt to nature, but to live in harmony with it.
I would like to believe that the Floodplain Management Association, through its work, its people, and its values, will help write the better version of that history. That we will not simply react to change but help to shape it. That we will not merely manage floods but lead in creating communities that thrive alongside water.
In
closing…
As I step aside, the reins now lie firmly in your hands. My time may be ending, but the work continues, and the story is far from finished. If I’ve learned anything, it’s that the future is not some distant abstraction. It begins today, in each conversation, each initiative, and each decision. So, I leave you with one final question, not just rhetorical, but actionable:
What will you do? Today?
Warm regards,
Brent Siemer Chairman, Floodplain Management Association
SAVE THE DATE
Floodplain Management Association Annual Conference
September 2-5, 2025
Hyatt Regency, Sacramento, CA
Visit – www.floodplain.org
FEDERAL/NATIONAL NEWS
For an Update of the latest disaster declarations visit: www.fema.gov/disasters
Information on Flood Insurance Reform – Rates and Refunds: www.fema.gov/flood-insurance-reform-rates-and-refunds
ADVISOR UPDATE
FEMA Updates for FMA Board:
Due to changes in federal priorities, FEMA will indefinitely be unable to provide tailored updates to the FMA Board or newsletter. If you have a unique FEMA issue, feel free to reach out to FMA and we will advise to the best of our abilities.
STATE NEWS
CALIFORNIA
GENERAL UPDATES
DWR Advances Groundbreaking Climate-Resilient Flood Mapping Through FEMA Partnership
A groundbreaking flood mapping study completed by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) shows that climate extremes will significantly increase major flooding in the coming decades, highlighting the urgent need for stronger state and regional flood management efforts to prepare for and address these rising risks and more frequent flood events.
Research has consistently shown that as the climate warms, the atmosphere holds more moisture — intensifying the strength and destructive potential of major atmospheric rivers reaching California. In response to the growing flood risk, DWR partnered with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) under the Cooperating Technical Partners Program to complete a groundbreaking flood mapping study that represents a major advance in climate-resilient flood planning. By integrating future climate scenarios into flood inundation modeling, this innovative effort delivers more accurate information for communities, planners, and emergency managers. It equips them to better understand and prepare for the evolving risks of extreme flooding and can help target future state and local investments in flood infrastructure.
This study will inform the 2027 update of the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan (CVFPP), which is focused on strengthening flood system climate resilience, providing a scalable, science-based approach for evaluating climate-driven flood risks across the Central Valley.
• Read more: https://water.ca.gov/News/ Blog/2025/Jul-25/DWR-AdvancesGroundbreaking-Climate-Resilient-Flood-MappingThrough-FEMA-Partnership
• Case Study Report: https://water.ca.gov/-/media/ DWR-Website/Web-Pages/Programs/All-Programs/ Climate-Change-Program/Resources-for-WaterManagers/Files/Publications--Reports/FEMA_ CRFM_CaseStudyReport.pdf
• Modeling and Inundation Study Report: https:// water.ca.gov/-/media/DWR-Website/Web-Pages/ Programs/All-Programs/Climate-Change-Program/ Resources-for-Water-Managers/Files/Publications-Reports/FEMA_CRFM_InundationReport.pdf
DWR Highlights Successful Partnership with California’s Farming Community to Protect Groundwater Supplies
Thanks to a collaborative and forward-thinking partnership with groundwater sustainability agencies and California farmers, the Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) LandFlex Program has protected thousands of community wells, furthered California’s groundwater recharge efforts, and protected critical water infrastructure from subsidence, all while keeping farms operational and sustainable.
During the program’s pilot year, California experienced extreme weather swings from prolonged drought to sudden flooding in early 2023. LandFlex was able to redirect excess floodwaters from inundated rivers onto fallowed farmland to help recharge groundwater aquifers, demonstrating how working lands can play a critical role in protecting water supplies and communities during both drought and flood scenarios. By also strategically identifying farmlands near the California Aqueduct, LandFlex was able to eliminate groundwater overdraft on those lands, supporting statewide efforts to prevent land subsidence and safeguard California’s vital water delivery infrastructure.
• Read more: https://water.ca.gov/News/NewsReleases/2025/Jun-25/DWR-Highlights-SuccessfulPartnership-with-Californias-Farming-Community-toProtect-Groundwater
• Report: https://water.ca.gov/-/media/DWRWebsite/Web-Pages/Work-With-Us/Grants-AndLoans/LandFlex/LandFlex-Grant-ProgramFinalReport52025.pdf
Study Finds That Subsidence, Groundwater OverPumping Could Limit Future Water Deliveries if No Action is Taken
A recently released technical report concludes that the sinking of land in the Central Valley due to over-pumping of groundwater, referred to as subsidence, has restricted the amount of water the State Water Project (SWP) can deliver in a year by 3 percent. By 2043, if no action is taken, the current trajectory of subsidence, combined with climate change, could reduce deliveries by 87 percent.
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STATE NEWS
(Continued)
The technical report, an addendum that builds on the Delivery Capability Report (DCR) released in 2024, analyzed the capability of the SWP to deliver water under both current and potential future conditions in the year 2043. The new findings underscore the importance of eliminating groundwater overdraft in the Central Valley and repairing existing damage to the state’s main water-delivery arteries.
• Read more: https://water.ca.gov/News/ Blog/2025/May-25/Study-Finds-That-SubsidenceGroundwater-Over-Pumping-Could-Limit-FutureWater-Deliveries
Golden Mussels Found During Boat Inspection at Thermalito Forebay
The Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) newly implemented invasive mussel inspection program for State Water Project (SWP) facilities in Oroville uncovered golden mussels attached to a pontoon boat late Wednesday afternoon in Butte County. Staff immediately contacted the California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW) for further inspection and decontamination. The vessel will not be allowed to launch at a DWR reservoir until CDFW confirms that it is free of mussels.
Golden mussels were first discovered in the Port of Stockton in October 2024. That same month, golden mussels were discovered at the SWP’s O’Neill Forebay in Merced County.
Adult golden mussels range from ¾ inches to 2 inches in size and have a light to dark yellowish-brown to brown-colored shell. When golden mussel populations are established, they are difficult to control due to their rapid growth and are easily spread to new waterbodies. Golden mussels can alter aquatic ecosystems by filterfeeding on planktonic algae and changing the habitat structure, which can damage fisheries, impact water delivery systems by clogging small-diameter pipelines, screens, and filters, and impact recreation by fouling boat hulls and motors and clogging intakes and cooling lines. Mussel larvae, also referred to as veligers, are microscopic and free floating in infested waters, and can be transported in a boat’s live well, ballast tank, or in the bilge if these areas are not completely drained.
DWR is reminding watercraft owners to clean, drain, and dry to prevent the spread of invasive mussels in California’s waterways. More information about DWR’s Oroville mussel inspection program is available at water.ca.gov/mussels.
NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM AND COMMUNITY RATING SYSTEM
Community Rating System Users Group Meetings
DWR hosts quarterly State CRS Users Group meetings that provide support and educational resources for communities that participate in the CRS, are interested in joining, or want to learn more about the program. During the meetings, attendees can share ideas, best practices, and hear from guest speakers about CRS-related topics. If you or your community are interested in attending a future meeting, please e-mail the State CRS Coordinator at Robert.Lampa@water.ca.gov. Program information is available on the Community Rating System webpage.
Upcoming Meetings:
• Wednesday, October 15: 10:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m.
DWR’S MAILING LISTS
Interested in news about DWR’s programs, grants, and partnerships? DWR has fifteen mailing lists that provide updates on the work we do. Subscription page: public. govdelivery.com/accounts/CNRA/signup/31790
QUESTIONS?
Nikki Blomquist, Northern California Advisor California Department of Water Resources Nikki.Blomquist@water.ca.gov | (916) 820-7749
Salomon Miranda, Southern California Advisor California Department of Water Resources Salomon.Miranda@water.ca.gov | (818) 549-2347
HAWAII
See the latest news stories relating to Hawai’i’s floodplain management issues. For the transformed flood information platform from Hawai’i visit their exciting weekly blog at www.waihalana.hawaii.gov/
Some of the latest articles relate to the release of the MAT report for the Maui fires and the appeal period for Honolulu Preliminary Flood Maps, and much more, provided by the DLNR Engineering Division.
For archived Wai Halana Newsletters (prior to 2018) –https://dlnreng.hawaii.gov/nfip/wai-halana/
NEVADA
Nevada Flood Program Updates
The flood program is restarting the Local Floodplain Managers Meetings to increase collaboration among communities and determine how to best provide training opportunities and support to Nevada’s floodplain administrators.
Next meeting:
• August 18, 2:30 pm – 4:00 pm
NevadaFloods.org has an updated look and new functions! Please visit our website to use our improved search function for our Library and Resources section. We are also happy to announce that the flood program will be publishing our first blog post later this month.
Outreach Updates
The Nevada Flood Awareness Week (FAW) team has a new name! While the group does collaborate to make our annual Flood Awareness Week a success, we should emphasize flood risk throughout the year. With that in mind, the group will now be called the Flood Awareness Communication Team (FACT).
FACT has met for two monthly meetings to discuss outreach accomplishments from all partners, upcoming training opportunities and strategies for the 2025 outreach campaign. Meetings have also featured short outreach-related presentations to share a closer look at outreach efforts and strategies across the state.
The State Flood Program partnered with River Wranglers and Carson Water Subconservancy District to provide
flood demonstrations for in-classroom and outdoor events in Reno, Carson City and Fallon. The Floodplain Model Demonstration continues to be an invaluable outreach tool to communicate how human development affects flooding hazards. The Flood Models in Nevada have been in circulation for years and have needed to be repaired or replaced after thousands and thousands of demonstrations. Unfortunately, the only retailer who makes the model has discontinued the unit, however Nevada is exploring ways to create a new Flood Model to keep our outreach program alive for years to come.
CALL FOR ARTICLES!
The FMA Newsletter welcomes the input of its members and now our extended family of readership to contribute to the conversation! Keep the great articles coming! We need to hear from all of you. There’s always room for more to join the ranks of published authors. Showcase your programs, projects, tools, policies, regulations or ideas to hundreds of floodplain management professionals throughout the U.S.! Articles must be submitted in Word format to fmaed@floodplain.org and may contain 2-3 small pictures. Preferred length is less than 850 words. For more details, call (916) 847-3778.
TEXAS FLOOD TRAGEDY WAS PREDICTABLE, BUT WAS IT PREVENTABLE?
Kathleen Schaefer
In the wake of recent tragic events, such as the devastating floods in Texas, it’s become clear that our current approach to flood management and disaster preparedness is falling short. The Associated Press reported that a flood warning system, which could have potentially saved lives, was left unfunded due to budget constraints (Ryan Foley et al., 2025). This heartwrenching incident is a stark reminder of the critical importance of proactive flood management and the dire consequences of inaction.
While there is and will be lots of finger-pointing, perhaps the fingers should be pointed at each of us. Extreme precipitation events, while rare, are not improbable (Oldenborgh et al., 2017; Schaefer, 2019; Swain et al., 2018). As Daniel Kahneman (2011) highlights in his book “Thinking, Fast and Slow,” humans are prone to cognitive biases that affect our perception of risk. We tend to underestimate the likelihood of low-probability, high-impact events, a phenomenon known as the “availability heuristic.” This cognitive shortcut leads us to judge the frequency of an event based on how easily we can recall similar instances. Consequently, in the absence of recent flood experiences, communities often neglect preparedness. This collective oversight, rooted in cognitive biases, underscores the need for structured, periodic risk assessments and community-wide discussions of flood management, regardless of recent historical precedent.
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and our system of flood management assume cities and counties are the most suitable entities to manage rare floods. This overlooks the cognitive limitations we share when dealing with low-probability events. Local governments, proficient in handling routine, high-probability challenges, often fail when confronted with complex or rare risks, even though the consequences of these events are well beyond local financial and management capabilities (Gormley, 1986). This misalignment between local governance capabilities and the unpredictable nature of flood risks creates significant vulnerabilities. As a result, communities are left poorly prepared for potential disasters, not from willful neglect, but from inherent human biases in risk perception and the limitations of local government for addressing rare, highconsequence events.
A fundamental shift is needed in how we approach flood management and community resilience. We must create discussions for communities to come together periodically, much as families gather to discuss important financial decisions. These discussions should focus on long-term planning, risk assessment, and proactive measures to mitigate flood risks. Think – life insurance for levees.
A promising model for facilitating these crucial conversations in California is the Geologic Hazard Abatement District (GHAD) (California Association of GHADs, n.d.). GHADs, originally designed to address possible but rare landslide risks, are governed by a Plan of Control and are a government entity well-suited to provide the structured framework communities need to address geological and hydrological hazards. They offer a platform for open dialogue, expert consultation, and collaborative decision-making on issues related to flood management and other natural hazards.
Insurance brokers can help facilitate these community conversations (Liedtke, 2007). Their expertise in risk assessment and mitigation can provide insights to help communities make informed decisions. Moreover, insurance providers can offer tailored products that incentivize proactive flood management measures, creating a wins for both the community and the insurer.
However, establishing and maintaining GHADs will not happen if they must depend on local funding alone. Just as communities often struggle to manage large-scale
Photograph: Brandon Bell/Getty Images
flood events independently, they are likely to find it challenging to sustainably fund GHAD operations and to justify an insurance policy, if that is part of the solution. This is where state or regional-level funding is crucial, just as life insurance is part of a household budget, so too GHAD funding should be part of a government budget. By providing financial support for GHADs, higher levels of government can ensure that communities have resources to engage in ongoing flood management planning and implementation.
The benefits of this approach include:
1. Proactive Planning: Regular community gatherings focus on flood management, encourage long-term thinking and preventive measures, potentially averting tragedies like the one in Texas.
2. Shared Responsibility: GHADs foster a sense of collective ownership in flood management, leading to more engaged and resilient communities.
3. Expert Input: By involving insurance companies and other specialists, communities can access professional risk assessment and management expertise.
4. Sustainable Funding: State or regional-level funding for GHADs ensures consistent resources for ongoing flood management efforts, addressing shortcomings of local budgets.
5. Adaptive Management: Regular community discussions allow for integration of new information, technologies, and strategies in flood management.
6. Reduced Financial Burden: Proactive measures and better-informed communities can potentially reduce the financial strain of flood insurance.
The recent flood tragedy in Texas underscores the urgent need for a new approach to flood management. By creating safe spaces for community discussions, leveraging governance structures like GHADs, involving insurance companies more actively, and ensuring sustainable funding from higher levels of government.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Kathleen Schaefer, Ph.D., P.E., CFM earned her Ph.D. in December. Her research interests include ways to reduce the financial protection gap related to floods and new approaches to managing flood risk. She can be reached at kkschaeferca@gmail.com. Follow her on LinkedIn.
FURTHER READING
Kunreuther, H. C., & Michel-Kerjan, E. O. (2011). At war with the weather: Managing large-scale risks in a new era of catastrophes. MIT Press.
Kunreuther, H., Meyer, R., & Michel-Kerjan, E. (2013). Overcoming decision biases to reduce losses from natural catastrophes. In The behavioral foundations of public policy (Vol. 23, pp. 398–413). Princeton University Press.
Tierney, K. (2025). Disasters: A sociological approach. John Wiley & Sons.
Tierney, K. (2020). The social roots of risk: Producing disasters, promoting resilience. Stanford University Press.
WORKS CITED
California Association of GHADs. (n.d.). What are GHADs? https://ghad.org/about-ghads/ Gormley, W. T., Jr. (1986). Regulatory issue networks in a federal system. Polity, 18(4), 595–620. http://www.jstor.org/stable/3234884
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
Liedtke, P. M. (2007). What’s insurance to a modern economy? The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance: Issues and Practice, 32(2), 211–221. https://www.jstor.org/stable/41952935
Oldenborgh, G. J., van Wiel, K., Sebastian, A., Singh, R., Arrighi, J., Otto, F., Haustein, K., Li, S., Vecchi, G., & Cullen, H. (2017). Attribution of extreme rainfall from Hurricane Harvey. Environmental Research Letters, 12. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa9ef2
Ryan Foley, C., Keller, C., Murphy, S., & Mustian, J. (2025, July 9). A decade of missed opportunities: Texas couldn’t find $1M for flood warning system near camps. Associated Press https://apnews.com/article/texas-floods-camp-warningsystem-not-funded-0845df62390b9623331ba4a030c5fc7d Schaefer, K. (2019, July 21). $24.6 billion national flood insurance program debt explained in one chart. California Water Blog. https://californiawaterblog.com/2019/07/21/24-6-billionnational-flood-insurance-program-debt-explained-in-one-chart/ Swain, D. L., Langenbrunner, B., Neelin, J. D., & Hall, A. (2018). Increasing precipitation volatility in twenty-firstcentury California. Nature Climate Change, 8(5), 427. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0140-y
EXTREME PRECIPITATION
George Booth, PE, CFM, FMA Executive Director
On July 17th, FMA held the 31st annual California Extreme Precipitation Symposium (CEPSYM 2025) at University of California Davis. The program began with presentations describing flood disasters in the Gulf Coast area, in North Carolina, and in California. Considering these events and what happened July 4th in Texas, here are my thoughts about extreme events.
Statistically improbable storm events beg the questionwhat does extreme precipitation mean to us as floodplain managers? Moreover, what does the term mean to the public and to the elected decision makers? We all seem to have our paradigms; and when certain words attempting to describe hydrology are used, part of the population becomes defensive. We cannot very well communicate our concern if the listeners are not listening, and if the decision makers are tuning us out.
Everyone wants to feel safe in their homes from disasters including flooding. Like everything in engineering decision making, it often becomes a matter of benefit versus cost (or as I like to say ‘dollars and sense’).
We must, by code, manage the one percent annual recurrence storm event. Do we have confidence that our current rainfall IDF (intensity, duration, frequency) charts will be those of the future? What are we to do with the less likely but disastrous flood?
Imagine setting the minimum floor elevation for a new custom home (or anything else for that matter) only to have it flood in an extreme precipitation event. Now, imagine the cost of building that floor a bit higher in the first place; compared to the mess of flooding and cost of raising the house after it has been built. A wellmaintained structure will be occupied for generations to come. We know what we know about the past, but what do we know about future hydrology? Every decade for whatever reason, it seems precipitation records are broken somewhere, and the resulting flooding is ‘the worst we’ve ever seen.’ Can we, should we, model and design flood management systems for extreme events?
We should, though it becomes politically and economically very difficult, run a less likely storm event through our design models and decide if we can live with what could potentially happen. What if there is a worst-case safety valve built into the flood control system, so the extreme flood affects an unpopulated area and avoids the urbanized area? A good rule of thumb is that less disaster would be better than more disaster.
For river flood control systems, flood-managed aquifer recharge (Flood-MAR) combined with forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO), combined with system improvements would in many cases serve well as a flood risk reduction factor-of-safety. This sounds straight forward but like most things the challenge is in the details, including the many social, property rights, environmental, and economic considerations. Hard things are possible; they are just difficult. Tic-Tac-Toe is not challenging, it’s not interesting, so it’s not a very fun game.
CEPSYM 2025 emphasized the insights gained from flood disasters and addressed both present and emerging risks associated with regions safeguarded by Central Valley flood protection system of dams, levees, weirs, and bypasses. As they plan forward, there are opportunities to implement structural measures for flood risk reduction. These projects will indeed be challenging, interesting, and dare I say fun.
Flood insurance is one leg of the mitigation stool. While the NFIP (National Flood Insurance Program) is important to California, are we confident in its future? Further, insurance is not a plan for living with a risk, it is the last call for help after mitigation measures were not adequate. It would be wise for communities to think creatively, such as forming hazard abatement districts. These districts can help backstop the community with umbrella flood insurance while vigorously pursuing physical mitigation measures. Hard things require motivation, determination, and time.
The fourteen presenters at CEPSYM 2025 brilliantly and thoughtfully touched on these and other extreme topics for an audience of over 150. CEPSYM is an excellent program and is expected to continue annually for years to come. The CEPSYM 2025 presentations will be uploaded to the cepsym.org webpage. Also, there will be much more on these and other topics at the annual conference this September in Sacramento.
FMA was proud to honor Alan Haynes at the symposium, as he has been an active member of FMA and recently retired from NOAA. FMA is very thankful to the speakers, to the CEPSYM planning committee, to UC Davis, to the caterer Olive & Vine, and to our on-campus sponsor UCD Center for Watershed Sciences.
FMA offers a hearty thank you to the sponsors who made this event possible.
INSIGHTS FROM THE CALIFORNIA EXTREME PRECIPITATION SYMPOSIUM:
EVOLVING
FLOODPLAIN
Kathleen Schaefer
MANAGEMENT TOWARDS RESILIENCE
Insights from the California Extreme Precipitation Symposium: Evolving Floodplain Management Towards Resilience
This year’s California Extreme Precipitation Symposium marked a shift from prior events. Rather than focusing on the latest technical and academic advances in our understanding of extreme precipitation, this 31st symposium asked: how do we use the wealth of information collected over the past three decades to plan for the extreme events to come? With a particular focus on the San Joaquin River system, presenters and participants explored the options of forecast-informed reservoir operations, bypasses, drought storage, and lastly, the role of insurance in managing the residual risk. This post is the first in a series that will share insights and perspectives from the symposium.
Sandy Rosenthal, author of Words Whispered in Water, kicked off the symposium by sharing the lessons from her
investigation into the New Orleans levee failure caused by Hurricane Katrina, which underscored the limitations of an over-reliance on engineered flood control structures. As a result, her organization, levees.org, is advocating for engineering failure studies to be incorporated into engineering curricula.
Next, Dr. David Easterling shared compelling rainfall measurements. During the September 26-27, 2024 the rain gage at his house measured 15 inches of rainfall, an amount exceeding the 48-hour 1-in-100-year amount by 6 inches and exceeding the 48-hour 1-in1000-year amount by 3 inches. A station near Brevard, NC recorded 25.81 inches, almost 1.5 times their 1-in-1000-year amount. Prompting the questions: Has extreme precipitation increased? What evidence can support future projections of the risk of extreme precipitation events?
Slide from Dr. Easterling’s presentation
Dezaraye Bagalayos, Co-Assoc Executive Director¸ from the Allensworth Progressive Association (APA), provided a grassroots perspective, sharing her community’s struggles in managing the consequences of a man-made flood. Her testimony highlighted the realworld impacts of flooding on vulnerable communities and the importance of inclusive flood management strategies.
Dezare also shared several recommendations for government agencies working with flooded communities:
• Prioritize community outreach and engagement yearround, not just during emergencies, especially for vulnerable rural communities of color.
• Be as flexible as possible when communities need help, even if it means bending some rules during emergencies.
• Avoid calling law enforcement on community members trying to help during emergencies, as this erodes trust.
• Understand that residents are experts on their own communities and engage with them to identify vulnerabilities and needs.
• Include community members in important discussions and decisions that affect their future.
• Ensure outreach efforts are culturally appropriate, including providing materials in relevant languages and bringing translators when needed.
• Follow models like the Red Cross’s 5-year engagement plan for comprehensive, ongoing community involvement.
• Recognize that many vulnerable communities have learned to be self-reliant but still welcome and need external support.
• Understand that addressing the needs of the most vulnerable communities now can help prepare for broader climate change impacts in the future.
• Invest time in getting to know the region, politics, culture, and specific needs of vulnerable communities to provide more effective assistance.
This perspective from the APA underscored a crucial theme of the symposium: the importance of communityled initiatives and the need for floodplain managers and other professionals to work collaboratively with local leaders. It highlighted the need for both top-down and bottom-up flood management approaches that empower communities to build their own resilience.
As Simon Sinek, renowned for his “Start with Why” concept, famously stated, “People don’t buy what you do; they buy why you do it.” For the scientists, engineers, and public officials in attendance, these three speakers - Sandy Rosenthal, Dr. David Easterling, and Dezare Bagalayos - presented a compelling ‘why’ for the sessions that followed.
The blog post next quarter will share a summary of challenges extreme precipitation will pose to the families, businesses, and communities within the San Joaquin Valley. The post will share an overview of the strategies and collaborative efforts that state and regional agencies are implementing to manage these challenges.
WILL DEI DIE?
Michael Nowlan
The short answer? No. DEI issues affect us all, even in floodplain management. We have been talking about it in our past conferences because the whole nation has, and that is in great part due to the past administration. However, for the next few years some of us may elect to curtail discussion about it in order to remain in the good graces of the federal government. Is it Marxist as some people purport, or is it based on compassion?
This is just a repackaging of an age-old societal issue. It is a form of socialist ideology. Before you condemn me, I am not saying it is bad. It just stands in juxtaposition to conservatism and individualistic thinking. Because it seeks to account for the needs of the individual in the distribution of benefit and opportunity, it seeks to give disproportional advantage to those less fortunate. It seeks to “level the playing field”, or “balance the scales”. It seems to suggest that a level playing field is ideal. As a flood engineer I must work within the environment I am given, and use the hills and valleys and gravity to make systems work, otherwise, the only way that water would flow would be by pumping, which is considerably more expensive. All the rain that falls on the continents would never drain away if they were entirely flat, stifling movement and creating wetlands everywhere. I am certainly not saying that DEI is flat earth thinking. What I am suggesting is that different opinions are part of the human landscape and can offer opportunities as well as obstacles. We do not all think the same ways about things. Let’s work with reality while considering idealism.
In FMA we are mostly not policy makers, we are mostly doers. But, as doers we see the direct results of the policies proclaimed from on high. We implement known practices that are intended to ensure that floodplains are properly defined and administered. But, we also talk about those practices, their shortcomings and their benefits, and seek to improve them. That would also include identifying when they don’t work and need to be reformulated, or have some gaping hole that needs to be filled. Sometimes the gaping holes have been previously filled, but there is usually a scar, and scars should be reminders of our past injuries. We should be careful not to pick at past injuries too much or we may re-open old wounds. Scar tissue is weaker than normal tissue and is susceptible to re-injury. It also does not re-heal as well.
The gaping holes are sometimes in the definitions of the flooding itself, but they are not always visible. With defining floodplains, you cannot always see the errors. It
is even harder with societal and policy issues. Sometimes you must change your conceptual “point of view” to see it, as your viewpoint influences your conclusions. A simple example would be a floodplain map. Looking at the map from above, a delineated floodplain boundary may look entirely reasonable. Turn the viewpoint to a profile view and you may see a different picture. If a model has a computational error (it does happen), the model can compute elevations that appear to flow water uphill. The resulting floodplain from such a model would not be considered correct under gravity flow conditions. If somehow a model were to have insufficient input (it does happen), then the model’s results would also be considered incorrect. If a cross section were to be defined with a roughness that doesn’t match what is actually there, then the model would also be considered incorrect. There are many, many, ways that a model can go wrong. Even if the user input is correct, the program can be unstable. Some people even proclaim that “all models are wrong, but some are useful”. Does that stop us from continuing to make models? Does that stop us from striving toward an ideal, even though we know we can never get there?
One problem with DEI, or any legitimate cause, is that different people define the terms differently. Believe it or not, but diversity efforts are sometimes seen as a means of homogenizing a given population, resulting in a loss of identity. If you have “separated” populations, and you seek to “mix” these populations in some way, you are seeking to un-separate or redefine them to some degree. We should all recognize that many people’s identities are wrapped up in their uniqueness and differences. We all know that we can’t all be the same, but diversity and unity must live in a balance. We have to learn to balance the needs of the individual with the needs of the community. Unfortunately, a lack of celebration of our differences is often perceived as a rejection of those differences. If everything must be equally accepted and celebrated, and everybody loves everybody, then all actions must be considered “good”, right? Of course not! Some actions are destructive and counterproductive, but how do you discern what is and isn’t counterproductive? There’s that pesky individualistic free will, perception, and choice rearing its ugly head again! You cannot force people to think as you do. They must choose it. There’s a word to describe those who try and force others to think as they do and it is not good.
When determining whether equity exists or not, it requires judgment of what is “valuable” and what “should” be. And we all know how difficult it is to get agreement on what “should” be. Any forced outcome is arguably not perceived as equitable to all parties involved. In fact, it can produce a feeling of inequity. The reality is that some of the “haves” will tend to hold on to what they “have”, which may perpetuate the “have nots” having not. When you have something that is good (to you), giving it away is sometimes the last thing you want, particularly if you built what you have. Unfortunately, in focusing on the protection of infrastructure investment we have lost sight of the people. Property value has influenced investment, because investment must get a return. In the past the value of the infrastructure has been tied with the value of the property it protects and implied the value of the people that reside there. Of course, where forced inequity exists, some outcomes may need to be forced the other direction, to balance the scales. Once those barriers have been broken, it will still be painful if educational/experiential merit takes a backseat to social goals. It becomes more about the social result rather than the work product, or how we treat each other during the process. Too often the scales do not find a balance point, but swing wildly with the winds of power.
I am trying to strike a balance in this article, but that may be impossible in this world of disagreement and selfishness. I have been wrestling with this article since the end of January, and refrained from putting it into the February and May newsletters. It was too fresh and unformed, but I am not sure it will ever be fully formed. I explored the concepts of equity and equality. The illustrations that pop up on the internet to compare these two terms were not helpful and seemed contrived. The differences between these two words were not entirely clear, but I believe it is becoming more clear. Equality seems to center around equal dispensation and equal treatment in the future regardless of our previous station. Equity seems to encompass the considerations associated with previous/current inequality, hence the term “social justice”. Your starting point is taken into account. Giving each person a pair of new socks means more to the individual who can immediately wear them on their feet and less so to the person that is buried in mud from the
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WILL DEI DIE? (Continued)
waist down. We cannot blindly treat people equally if their needs are different. Of course, unburying the second person has an additional cost, and they may be unable to wear the socks, even if we save them a pair. If you only agree that the government should give out socks because it benefits you, what kind of person does that make you?
Inclusion can also be difficult to implement, particularly if it is faked or forced. Most people know when something is forced and they will back away from certain societal situations to avoid conflict. One recent example of that for me was watching a TV show where a number of young students of color stated they would rather attend universities where their identity was accepted and celebrated, rather than fight the world regarding their identity. They felt they needed a safe haven. Forced inclusion was not inclusion at all. They were tired of fighting. Hopefully the safe havens don’t turn into dens of derision for those outside of their safe walls. Separation, even when it’s entirely voluntary, is not always healthy because it can sometimes feed a sense of false superiority, especially in light of a false sense of inferiority. All towers (ivory or otherwise) are high above their surrounding terrain and give a warped perspective of those “below”. The difficulty runs both directions as those below sometimes assume the worst of those in the tower. Towers isolate us from each other, in both directions.
Ultimately, everyone must serve in a different specific job for society to function. Everyone is not equally qualified or even talented enough to be able to do the exact same things. One person filling a single job position means a host of others were not selected to fill that position, so there are always many impediments in the equity and inclusion story. It is a great idea as a direction, but it makes for a difficult destination. It can seem like trying to outrun the sun sometimes.
Merit is based on the level of previous accomplishments, which are most certainly shaped by our past. How do you accomplish as much as your neighbor if your neighbor has more advantage than you to begin with? If a child is well fed and cared for (shelter and health care) then they may be more able to dream and accomplish great things, but they are just as likely to become manipulative and condescending or lazy. Adversity is also not necessarily a horrible thing. Every person that works out knows that resistance builds strength and requires muscle injury to be built back stronger. People who are not as advantaged as
others also go on to do great things. Others will wallow in their suffering. It seems like advantage and adversity are both double-edged swords that can contribute to great things and horrible injury depending upon how we choose to use them.
We’ve got a lot of work ahead of us. DEI is not dead. Whatever is razed can be raised again, as long as the foundation remains. In the case of ideologies, they live inside each of us. It cannot consume us either. Balance. Getting everyone to stop moving for a bit can be helpful to more starkly see where we are out of balance. Hopefully it doesn’t exacerbate the imbalance and force people to fall off the edges. We must each choose to be kind to one another in the process. It is both a wonderful and painful process. We can try and look beyond the pain, but, in the midst of pain, sometimes that’s all you focus on, which inevitably affects those around you. I will freely admit that I do not feel the same pain as others do, but hopefully I do not need to be made to feel it directly in order to understand it, because that just transfers/ grows the pain. It doesn’t alleviate it. Raising up the station of others is always admirable as a voluntary charitable action, but once you force it as a social enforceable mandate, it becomes something less admirable. Forced separation is bad, but forced unification is also bad. The conflict ultimately begins and ends inside each of us, no matter how much we have or have not, but we should all be given the ability to choose. Otherwise, tyranny will ensue, with the abused potentially becoming the next abuser. Of course, when you are an abuser, you may see fairness as an “abuse”. What’s the old saying? “You can’t legislate morality”. Unfortunately, neither legislation nor policing (legal or vigilante) will solve this issue.
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THE HIGH WATER MARK
The Newsletter of the Floodplain Management Association
