Tulsa County Profile

Tulsa, OK

Tulsa County Profile Emily Fitzsimmons

Tulsa County Government Building

Rural Tulsa County

Table of Contents Executive Summary..........................................................................................................................................3 Demographic Summary....................................................................................................................................5 Race & Ethnicity.........................................................................................................................................6 Geographic Mobility...................................................................................................................................8 Population Forecasting...............................................................................................................................9 Economic Summary.........................................................................................................................................10 Employment, Occupations, & Industries...................................................................................................11 Income & Poverty......................................................................................................................................14 Employment Forecasting...........................................................................................................................15 Bibliography....................................................................................................................................................16 List of Tables Table 1. Race and Ethnicity Populations in Tulsa County from 2010-2018..............................................7 Table 2. Race and Ethnicity Populations in Tulsa MSA from 2010-2018.................................................7 Table 3. Race and Ethnicity Populations in Oklahoma from 2010-2018...................................................7 Table 4. Geographic Mobility in Tulsa County and Oklahoma in 2018....................................................8 Table 5. Total Population Projections for Tulsa County in 2026................................................................9 Table 6. Employment and Income Changes in Tulsa County from 2010-2018.........................................11 Table 7. Occupation in Tulsa County and Oklahoma in 2018...................................................................13 Table 8. Employment and Wage Changes by NAICS Industry for Tulsa County 2010-2018...................13 Table 9. Commuting to Work in Tulsa County and Oklahoma in 2018.....................................................14 Table 10. Income and Poverty in Tulsa County and Oklahoma in 2018....................................................14 Table 11. Employment and Wage Changes by NAICS Industry for Tulsa County 2010-2018.................15 Table 12. Forecasting Employment for 2026 in Tulsa County, OK, Using Extrapolation, Constant-Share, and Shift-Share Methods.................................................................................................16 List of Figures Figure 1. Map of Tulsa County, OK...........................................................................................................3 Figure 2. Map of Tulsa MSA.....................................................................................................................4 Figure 3. Map of Tulsa County within Oklahoma.....................................................................................4 Figure 4. Race in Tulsa County in 2010.....................................................................................................8 Figure 5. Race in Tulsa County in 2018.....................................................................................................8 Figure 6. Race in Tulsa MSA in 2018........................................................................................................8 Figure 7. Race in Oklahoma in 2018..........................................................................................................8 Figure 8. Total Population Projections for Tulsa County, OK, 2010-2026................................................9

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Restored Superfund site in Tulsa County

Executive Summary This profile of Tulsa County consists of discussion and analysis of demographic and economic data as it compares to the reference areas of the Tulsa Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and the state of Oklahoma as well as across time. Data for this report was collected from the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey 5-year estimates as well as the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS); this data is illustrated in tables and figures throughout. The first section consists of a demography of the study area, including race and ethnicity, geographic mobility, and population forecasting, and the second section entails economic data and analysis, including employment and occupations, income and poverty, and employment forecasting. Based the information found, key findings within this report include: ● Though Tulsa County is not particularly diverse, it is experiencing rapid growth of minority populations and a decrease in the white population ● Geographic mobility is currently focused within the county, but with proper investments, Tulsa County could easily become a destination for both domestic and international refugees in conjuction with the increasing diversity of the area ● The total Tulsa County population is forecast to grow to 700,000 by 2026 ● There is a mismatch between census occupation and NAICS industry data that suggests that many people working in Tulsa County are not living in Tulsa County ● Employment has been and is projected to grow in Tulsa County, but many of the jobs are not quality and lack livable wages ● Income and poverty have remained mostly stagnant between 2010-2018, the years being studied ● The total Tulsa County employment is forecast to grow to 390,545 in 2026 Figure 1. Map of Tulsa County, OK

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Figure 2. Map of Tulsa MSA

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Figure 3. Map of Tulsa County within Oklahoma

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Demographic Summary

The Gathering Place, Tulsa, OK

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Demographic Summary Demographics is one of the most important components of a place, for people – how many there are, where they come from, their history – defines the culture, the economy, the built form, and public health of a community.

For this profile, the demographic section below uses census data to analyze race and ethnicity, geographic mobility, and population forecasting in Tulsa County, all of which indicate an opportunity for growth of diversity and inclusivity within the study area as climate and political refugee numbers continue to rise.

Race & Ethnicity Collecting and analyzing data on race and ethnicity is a critical step in planning because it helps reveal where the residents come from and their generational history, how the population is growing, what kinds of services resident need, while also bringing systemic racism and xenophobia to light. As illustrated in Tables 1-3 and Figures 5-7, compared to the reference areas of Tulsa MSA and the state of Oklahoma, Tulsa County is only slightly more racially and ethnically diverse across all categories except for American Indian and Alaska Native, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander, and Puerto Rican. The latter two make up the same percentage of the population across all geographies. Oklahoma and Tulsa County, specifically, have a rich history of residents who are people of color and immigrants, particularly Native American, Latinx, and Black folks. Oklahoma is the immemorial homelands to many tribes and was also the place of forced relocation for many more during the 1800s. More recently, Oklahoma has become a place of immigration for Latinx people, especially Mexican people fleeing poor living conditions. Moreover, Tulsa County, specifically, was home to Black Wall Street, a thriving regional economic center for Black people in the early 20th century. Coincidingly, however, Oklahoma and Tulsa County also have a long history of racial and ethnic discrimination and violence, examples of which include the Tulsa Race Massacre, redlining and segregation, the ongoing genocide of Indigenous peoples, antiimmigration policies, and racist attitudes from the general public. As a result, Tulsa County and the reference areas are not very racially or ethnically diverse.

Notably, however, Tulsa County is rapidly becoming more diverse, as illustrated by Table 1 and Figures 4 and 5. The dominating group – white people – only decreased by 6.95%, but all minority groups grew by at least 10%. Some populations grew by extraordinary amounts, such as the Asian (56.99% growth) and Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander (73.46% growth) racial groups and the Puerto Rican (82.57% growth), Cuban (82.30% growth), and other Hispanic or Latinx (61.52% growth) ethnic groups. This massive growth in minority groups are likely due to a variety of reasons, including but not limited to the need for climate and political refuge, access to jobs and education, specialized healthcare needs, greater availability of support services, and desire to live in diverse neighborhoods, In particular, the fact that Tulsa County is home to the second largest city in the state, so as disparities between urban and rural life worsen, more people from rural areas find they must move to the largest cities for opportunities.

As these populations continue to grow within the area, Tulsa County officials need to establish and expand existing programs meant to support these groups, such as: ● installing multi-lingual signage ● hiring bilingual government employees ● funding multilingual school and health programs 6

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incentivizing multicultural businesses to locate in the area requiring diversity training for government employees and in public schools affirmative action hiring of government employees neighborhood reinvestment programs targeted at historically redlined areas and currently low-income areas ● public transportation that connects historically POC and immigrant neighborhoods to business centers and schools Table 1. Race and Ethnicity Populations in Tulsa County from 2010-2018

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Table 2. Race and Ethnicity Populations in Tulsa MSA from 2010-2018

Table 3. Race and Ethnicity Populations in Oklahoma from 2010-2018

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Figure 4. Race in Tulsa County in 2010

Figure 5. Race in Tulsa County in 2018

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Figure 6. Race in Tulsa MSA in 2018

Figure 7. Race in Oklahoma in 2018

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Geographic Mobility Geographic mobility tallies the percentage of people who moved to the study area within the last year and indicates where they are coming from. As illustrated in Table 4, comparing Tulsa County with the state shows that Tulsa County has a higher percentage of people moving entirely within the county. This is likely due to increasing numbers of people moving from the rural towns of Tulsa County to the city of Tulsa in search of more educational, economic, and social opportunities. This may also be because of the presence of several colleges in the county as students tend to move multiple times during their academic career. Tulsa County does, however, have a lower percentage of people moving to the area from a different county within the state, possibly due to the draw that Oklahoma City has for many 8

Table 4. Geographic Mobility in Tulsa County and Oklahoma in 2018

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throughout the state as the capital. Notably, both Oklahoma and Tulsa County has a very low percentage of people moving in from abroad, but accepting international immigrants would be a great opportunity for both Tulsa County and refugees seeking a new home, especially considering how Tulsa County is already growing rapidly in diversity. However, this would require bolstering services for immigrants as discussed in the section above.

Population Forecasting In order to adequately prepare for the growing population of people in Tulsa County, it is important to make population forecasts so that the government can make long-range plans and implement large infrastructure projects in time to serve residents. For this report, I used both linear and ration projection methods to calculate a more accurate estimate. The linear projection technique makes calculations based on the assumption that the study area will grow at the same rate over the next time span as the previous time span, and the ration method assumes that the study area’s population will maintain the same percentage of its reference area’s population over time. Utilizing both methods helps mitigate error and gives a population projection range of 695,805704,107, which averages to a forecast of about 700,000 in 2026 for Tulsa County. Because the range calculated here is overall higher than the official population projections done by the Oklahoma Department of Commerce, the forecast given in this report is about 17,000 higher than the official projection of 682,950. This is simply because of the utilization of different calculation techniques.

Table 5. Total Population Projections for Tulsa County in 2026

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Figure 8. Total Population Projections for Tulsa County, OK, 2010-2026

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Economic Summary

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Black Wall Street, Tulsa, OK

Economic Summary Like a demography, analyzing the data of a place’s is a good way to determine the state of equity, access to resources and opportunities, infrastructure, job quality, public health, and more. For this section, I summarize and analyze data from both the US Census and the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), including information about employment, industries, income, poverty, and journey to work. Overall, Tulsa County is experience job growth but is lacking in wage growth; likewise, income disparities appear to be affecting who can and cannot live within the county. The county’s economy is projected to gain more jobs, but action should be taken to ensure they are quality, well-paying jobs that allow for low-income people to live where they work.

Employment, Occupations, & Industries Between 2010 and 2018, Tulsa County’s total population and the population over 16 years of age grew at nearly the same rate of 8.99% and 8.89%, respectively, as shown in Table 6. Likewise, the number of people in the workforce grew at a slightly lower rate of 7.32% as not all teenagers are in the labor force. According to the census data shown in Table 7, the top three occupation categories by employment within Tulsa County in 2018 were management, business, science, and arts at 37.70% of the labor force, sales and office occupations at 23.90%, and service occupations at 16.30%. The occupation category with the lowest portion of employees living in the county was natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations at 8.90%, which would indicate that Tulsa County has moved away from its roots as an extraction and manufacturing center to a more services- and management-oriented economy. This would make sense as Tulsa County becomes more and more urbanized as the city of Tulsa grows.

Table 6. Employment and Income Changes in Tulsa County from 2010-2018 Looking further at the data in Table 7, compared to the state of Oklahoma, Tulsa County has slightly higher percentages of residents working in the more professional occupational categories – management, businesses, science, and arts occupations and sales and office occupations – but lower percentages of people employed in hard labor-oriented occupations – service occupations, natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations, and production, transportation, and material moving occupations. Once again, this seems to indicate that Tulsa County’s economy has not only shifted into the service economy but is also a regional center for professional services rather than manufacturing and extraction, as it once was.

Notably, however, the NAICS data shown in Table 8 paints a slightly different picture about employment in Tulsa County.

NAICS data measures employment in the area without regard to where the employees live whereas census occupation data measures the occupation of people living in the area no matter where they work. According to the NAICS database, the industries with the highest concentration of employees, (“Explore”)

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or the biggest employers in the area, are healthcare and social assistance, manufacturing, retail trade, and accommodation and food services, in that order. These top four industries are highlighted in green in Table 8. Therefore, the differences between the NAICS and census data suggests that Tulsa County still is a major manufacturing center, but those working in Tulsa County’s manufacturing industry do not necessarily live in the county but commute from elsewhere.

Journey to work data in Table 9 also tends to support this assertion as the mean time to work is 19.8 minutes, and 82.40% of people drive in single-occupancy vehicles to work. The long commute time despite car usage suggests that people are commuting from longer distances for work. This is partially because the distance between Tulsa’s employment centers and the surrounding suburbs and towns is about twenty minutes, but considering the NAICS and census occupation data as well as the fact that Tulsa County is part of the Tulsa MSA, the journey to work time is also probably slightly skewed higher due to people commuting from outside the county.

Notably, the transportation habits currently taking place in the study area are extremely harmful to Tulsa County as the infrastructure needed to support such high usage of single-occupancy vehicles is fiscally, environmentally, and socially irresponsible and unsustainable. In 2018, only 0.60% of employees used public transportation and only 1.4% walked to work; that is pitiful. In order to combat further damage, the county should invest in an interurban public transportation system to help get people from the suburbs and surrounding counties to the main center of employment in a more sustainable manner. Additionally, the fact that so many people are commuting into Tulsa County and the city of Tulsa is partially due to the “drive until you qualify” mentality where wealthy people live far from urban centers to get more land because they can afford the commute. But the high concentration of residents in professional jobs paired with the high concentration of low-income industry jobs in the area also indicates that people in low-income jobs cannot afford to live in Tulsa County due to lack of affordable housing near the major employment centers. To combat this, the county should incentivize Tulsa, in particular, to implement affordable housing policies so that low- and middle-income people can afford to live where they work.

Tulsa County Library

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Table 7. Occupation in Tulsa County and Oklahoma in 2018

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Table 8. Employment and Wage Changes by NAICS Industry for Tulsa County 2010-2018

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Table 9. Commuting to Work in Tulsa County and Oklahoma in 2018

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Income & Poverty Tulsa County is definitively growing in population and employment, but income growth is generally falling behind as illustrated in Tables 6, 10, and 11. Between 2010 and 2018, the median household income (MHI) in Tulsa County increased from $45,613 to $53,902, and per capita income (PCI) increased from $26,769 to $30,894. At first, this seems like a respectable increase, but when accounting for inflation, MHI only increased by 3.66% and PCI by 1.24%, as shown in Table 6. Spending power of Tulsa County residents barely increased across nearly a decade despite rapidly rising living costs. Likewise, poverty rates remained almost the same: Poverty rates of all people in Tulsa County experienced no change, and poverty rates of related children decreased by 2.67% to 21.90%. Granted, compared to the state of Oklahoma, Tulsa County has slightly higher MHI and PCI and somewhat lower poverty rates, as shown in Table 10, but the results are still not good as Oklahoma has its own rampant issues of poverty and should not be used as a standard for economic health.

This lack of progress on wages within Tulsa County is due to the general rising disparities in income that are happening on a global scale, but analyzing Tulsa County data specifically, the NAICS data in Table 8 and 11 also indicates that a high number of jobs within Tulsa County are low-paying jobs that have not experienced very high increases in wages between 2010-2018. Of the top four industries, only one, manufacturing, pays above the average weekly wage; one, healthcare and social services, pays slightly below the average, and the remaining two of the top four industries pay far below the average weekly wage.

Table 10. Income and Poverty in Tulsa County and Oklahoma in 2018

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Too often, communities focus on economic growth in the sense of gaining as many jobs as possible without considering the quality or pay of those jobs. As a result, these places are essentially forcing residents to accept low-paying, low-quality, unsafe jobs that do not easily allow for social or economic mobility. With the stagnant poverty and income and high number of low-wage jobs, this unfortunate phenomenon seems to have occurred in Tulsa County.

In order to repair this mistake, the county should incentivize companies that offer quality jobs with living wages rather than minimum wages. Likewise, the county should fund services and development to help offset the cost of living for low-income people, such as affordable housing, subsidized childcare, public transportation, education and job training, and food supplies.

Table 11. Employment and Wage Changes by NAICS Industry for Tulsa County 2010-2018

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Employment Forecasting Like population forecasting, employment forecasting is an important part of community planning as it helps gauge what industries could present an opportunity for job growth and specialization and which industries may need more support to maintain current jobs. For this report, I utilized three different projection techniques – extrapolation, constant-share, and shift-share – in order to minimize the errors, which can be viewed in Table 12. Extrapolation calculates its projection based on the assumption that the economy will grow or shrink at the same rate in future years as the previous time period. The constant-share method utilizes more data and calculates its projection based on the rate of change from a reference area, such as the state or MSA. The shiftshare takes this a step further by adding a “shift term” to adjust for the fact that a smaller economy is unlikely to change at the same rate as the reference area’s economy. Using these techniques and 2010-2018 data, I 15

calculated a projection range of 376,926-397,495; averaging the results, I forecast that total employment in Tulsa County will be 390,545 in 2026, which would be a 38,061 increase from 352,484 in 2018.

Table 12. Forecasting Employment for 2026 in Tulsa County, OK, Using Extrapolation, Constant-Share, and Shift-Share Methods

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Bibliography “CPI Inflation Calculator.” US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, n.d. https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm. Accessed 19 April 2022.

“Explore Census Data.” United States Census Bureau, US Department of Commerce, 2010-2018. https://data.census.gov/cedsci/. Accessed 16 April 2022.

“North American Industry Classification System.” United States Census Bureau, US Department of Commerce, 2010-2018. https://www.census.gov/naics/?99967. Accessed 19 April 2022.

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