Fitzdares Times | issue 8

DIARY the magic and sheer madness of Monaco

BY NATALIE PINKHAM

woRlD

Cup why we should resist VAR in football

BY JAMES RICHARDSON

low lIfe the heroic hurdler who saved my bacon

BY STUART BARNES

NOTHING VENTURED. . .

Life is all about risk management: the identification and prioritisation of jeopardy, danger, hazard, menace, threat Risk is dynamic, kinetic, ever shifting and endlessly compelling It operates in a continuum, stabilising the relationship between the gamble and the need to maintain a competitive advantage From babies staggering about, to anyone crossing the road, to maniacs leaping from aeroplanes with only a fabric sack between them and a shattered skeleton – risk is at play every minute of every day And what we manage is our relationship with it We fizz with subconscious internal calculation every time we move a muscle “What,” something in us asks, “ are the chances?”

The business of risk can of course be highly profitable Emotional risk, in particular, can be leveraged with very little danger to the corporate protagonist But let’s stop talking maths Let’s talk sex – or the risk involved in trying to get sex Sure, we can prowl bars and parties, take deep breaths and try to talk to prospective paramours We might get mugged on the way to the nightclub, we might be spurned in front of everyone, we might have our drink spiked, we might get there and find that everyone is married or we ’ ve already slept with all the people there, dammit Better, many of us have come to believe, to manage the risk from the sofa And so we enter into the dance of death with the risk

vectors on Tinder or Bumble or Grindr or Muddy Matches This isn’t a marketplace risk – although sometimes it feels that way because everyone is playing with his or her own set of emotional currency and expectation and history The tender these apps and websites are monetising is that of endorphins (thrill) and the abstract, future-facing phenomenon of hope Oof Exhilarating and stirring Addictive and

Risk-takers are responsible for our survival as a species; the reason we didn’t starve to death in our caves.

painful The platform operates with virtually zero risk and we, the users, take the slings and arrows and run ourselves ragged on the metaphorical rollercoaster of acceptance and rejection So we log off Delete the app Go about the more manageable risk of how many biscuits we can dolefully eat alone in front of a box set until our fingers itch once more and we dive back in What, in life, is more compelling than risk Only, perhaps, the risk-takers They are responsible for our survival as a species; the reason we didn’t starve to death in our caves As single women we may listen to a man droning on at dinner and think to ourselves that the entire evening was a waste of mascara until he declares an →

→ improbable appetite for adventure, at which point our eyes turn into emoji hearts and our chests heave like a veritable Mills & Boon ingénue Even if we ’ ve been around the block a bit Even if we know that some risk-takers will always compulsively pursue their need for change and newness, their appetite never sated

Bill Gates, arguably the most successful businessman alive, took the risk of dropping out of Harvard to found Microsoft Today, that university’s most successful dropout advises students to get a degree because it is “ a much surer path to success ” Surer, yes But, sexier? Not so much Risk is the opposite of plod because of the pots of gold at the end of the gamble Risk always sounds effortless Magical It gleams when it works Becomes anecdotal Heralded

Take the story of businessman Fred Smith, who was denied a bank loan he needed to pay the company ’ s gas bill and so took off to Vegas with his fledgeling firm’s last $5,000 He returned with $32,000, and the rest FedEx Was it luck, intuition, skill or idiocy? Who cares! He’s a hero! He could have been bankrupt but he’s a hero

Elon Musk is global business’s Mr Risk right now In order to do what no other American firm has managed to do for more than 50 years – build a scalable new car

company – he invested his last $35 million in cash (from his sale of PayPal) into Tesla in 2008 when it was struggling to deliver its first car The firm is now worth $2 5 billion

“When something is important enough,” he said, “ you do it even when the odds are not in your favour ” “Such wisdom,” we mutter, because he won Rather than “such folly”

Risk is the pursuit of the unknown, and this is the part that the risk-averse cannot cope with However intricately one has calculated, there is a gamble to be taken.

“It’s completely safe,” howls the skydiving aficionado to the quaking novice Well, hang on just a second, it’s not completely without risk now, is it?

But in a world where we are watched by algorithms, stalked by adverts and nannied by governments, personal risk is becoming more and more attractive We are, it seems, desperate to be let off the leash Drugs – those lazy horizonbroadening tools – are on the up and up, with people buying unknown compounds (known as postcode drugs because of their baffling names) and having them shipped from China for a new kind of Friday night dinner

At the more wholesome end of the scale, the British Parachute Association recorded 39,100 first jumps in 2006, but by 2016 that number had risen to 59,679 Membership of the British Mountaineering Council more than doubled over the same period I mean, how many “ sponsor me ” emails land in your inbox from someone trekking to a pole, scaling a peak or rowing an ocean in full drag on a raft made of lashed-together Ruinart bottles? Many Oh, many, many

But is it really thrill we are seeking, or is it understanding? Are we testing to see at what point we get burned and lose our balance, our consciousness, our dignity, our house or our life? We all live in fear of loss, of things being worse than they are today And risk is the lifeline, the magical thinking, the component in our most subliminal calculations that tells us relentlessly: take the risk Go on, take the risk Take the risk or lose the chance n

Annabel Rivkin is a contributor to the Saturday Telegraph Magazine, The Evening

14:20 Lingfield Fearsome @ 7/2

15:30 Lingfield Bezos @

Addeybb @ 8/1

Lincoln Handicap Tiger Roll @ 25/1

Grand National

Coup De Pinceau @ 11/8

12:55 Musselburgh Dolos @ 4/1

13:15 Sandown

Barney Dwan @ 11/8

13:30 Musselburgh Cyrname @ 11/4

14:25 Sandown

Marracudja @ 5/2

14:45 Musselburgh

Topofthegame @ 9/2

15:00 Sandown

Summerville Boy @ 7/1

13:30 Cheltenham

Mister Whitaker @ 13/2

17:30 Cheltenham

Mohaayed @ 33/1

14:10 Cheltenham

Chris’s Dream @ 7/1

14:50 Cheltenham

Native River @ 5/1

15:30 Cheltenham

Blow By Blow @ 12/1

16:50 Cheltenham

Standard and co-founder of The Midult

Back shor t-priced favourites or aim for

Series win for England rugby union in South Africa

Chris Froome to win the Tour de France

George Groves to beat Callum Smith USA to lift the Ryder Cup

H I G H B A L L 5

Taking a big risk paid off for Fred Smith, Bill Gates and Elon Musk

AVIDEO NASTY

re you ready for the world cup of var? The VAR-ld cup, shall we call it? Better be ready, because the controversial technology –video-assisted refereeing – is set to be the defining element of this tournament 2018’s vuvuzuela, and every bit as annoying VAR is potentially the biggest change to come to football in generations It’s a philosophical quantum shift that, just for starters, challenges one of the most fundamental tenets of sport – that it doesn’t matter whether you win or lose, as long as you play the game That may sound delightfully quaint amid the billions of pounds football generates these days, but it’s on that spirit that the game has always sold itself – after all, people tune in to see a spectacle, not scoresheets

So far the Premier League has remained immune to VAR’s charms, but over the past few seasons it has spread its tentacles across the European game In established leagues like Serie A, the Eredivisie and the Bundesliga, and in competitions like the FA Cup, referees can halt play to consult a pitchside monitor, or in some countries call upon an external team of video officials to make a call

Oh dear, I’m yawning as I write that And I’m not the only one – not since RuPaul did Drag Race have TV reviews caused such controversy With delays often stretching into minutes, many pundits have come to hate VAR, most players resent the intrusion, and, tellingly, refs don’t much like it either Naturally, then, it’s coming to the biggest competition of all, the World Cup Now, Russia is in theory ideally placed to handle this: it’s hard to think of a country with more experience in rewriting history, nor as used to living with revolutionary apparatus – and the case for having VAR there does sound compelling This is the World Cup, runs the argument; it’s watched by hundreds of millions worldwide and every effort should be made to make sure decisions are correct. Denying the one person on the planet who’s controlling the game the pictures everyone else is seeing sounds, in that light, a little daft

It’s not Russia, though, but Fifa’s international refereeing teams who’ll be doing the reviewing, and most of them for the first time As some of them don’t

pausing for review fatally disrupts the rhythm of the game – it leaves fans and players in limbo.

have the best track record of using even a simple whistle correctly, placing them in charge of a complex and time-consuming review system while the world waits to get on with the game does not sound a recipe for success

There is a far deeper issue with VAR, however, and it applies to whoever is using it Pausing for review fatally disrupts the rhythm of the game – there’s simply no nautral place for it in what is an exceptionally fluid sport It leaves spectators and players in limbo Worse still, it fatally compromises the single most important element in the sport: the goal celebration Nothing crystallises the joy of football like the pure unthinking emotion that erupts from players and supporters when a goal is scored Now, however, across Europe they’ve got used to choking back on their cathartic moment of release until it can be sanctioned by a committee or a man looking at a monitor Far from tantric, it’s coitus interruptus It’s the imposition of the rational, and where’s the fun in that?

De v o t e e s o f va r ( de va rt e e s ? ) will insist that for all this, its use has produced an improvement in refereeing performance in Europe They’re right to do so, but the gain has been marginal and for me it’s fundamentally irrelevant anyway: at its heart, football is not about being right or wrong but drama and desire The flow of the game should always trump an erroneous decision It’s the sacrifice we make to still call it a game I’d no more pause football’s unfolding narrative for these reviews than interrupt Star Wars to take the Wookie’s temperature

People argue that VAR is still in its infancy and will improve, but more than that I fear for the monster it could become Cease now, Fifa, with your wanton usage of this needless technology. Have a pause for thought, because this game really doesn’t need one n

James Richardson presents the twice-weekly podcast The Totally Football Show and spent many years presenting Channel 4’s Football Italia

Expect long pauses

ALL THAT COUNTS IS THAT FINAL HURDLE

‘A man can be as wise as Solomon and have an iron character and still be carried away ’ Fyodor Dostoevsky was writing about the poetic charms of the roulette wheel, but it could just as easily be Cheltenham for those of us addicted to the thrills of that Gloucestershire spa town in March Just to clarify, I lack Solomon’s wisdom and, come the festival, am not always renowned for my iron character Yes, I too have been carried away – all the way to the brink To the “Get Out Stakes” that for so many years was the County Hurdle – the last race of the meeting in those days when Cheltenham wasn’t stretched (along with our stamina) to four days Friday was for recovering, as often as not licking the wounds

Don’t ask me when the bets became bigger or how the situation so perilous, but by the last race on the last day I was triple my limit down.

Memory is a trickster, not to be trusted, but I didn’t need the aid of Google to leap back in time to 1997. Istabraq hacked up in the Sun Alliance, but at 11/10 that profit was soon swallowed AP McCoy was beaten with a late run by a second-string Pipe horse in the Coral Cup I had backed the Pipe/McCoy partnership at 14/1 but an Australian came from nowhere to beat him Big Bloody Strand A clear memory Then it all goes hazy, dark, very, very wrong Wind the clock back to the County Hurdle and I am in trouble I have disobeyed Dostoevsky’s gambling maxim, “keeping one ’ s head the whole time and not getting excited” Don’t ask me when the bets became bigger or how the situation so perilous, but by the last race on the last day I was triple my limit down Most of us have been there, but I was deeper in the mire than I had ever been

£50 each way was my last remaining bet. An antepost on the 33/1 Nicky Henderson horse, Barna Boy (And no, the wager had nothing to do with the fact that Barna is indeed my West Country abbreviation ) He was being backed in A good each-way bet – but not good enough when you are £9,100 behind on a planned stake of £3,000 Consolations count for nothing If I didn’t know I had the gambler’s genes before, now I realised, as

I saw the price drop to 25/1, Begging, borrowing, claiming whatever credit was left, I decided through my gin that if I was to go down it would be in flames £450 each way at 25/1, plus the original bet A ten-grand disaster How to explain that to my lovely wife? There was no way Might as well lose a clean ten thousand as a silly figure like £9,100 “The necessity of risk redeems him in his eyes ” I was beyond the safety net, in the sort of losing position I had long dreaded but never quite believed I could end up after 17 races And I was thrilled Enthralled And, yes, resigned I didn’t bother with the first mile and a half of the County Hurdle It was not until the runners approached the last that the Henderson horse was mentioned in commentary Could it happen? He took the last – and the lead – with Carlito Brigante moving

menacingly But Richard Dunwoody kept him going, the gap always a good length

There were no half-cut computations of unlikely profit, nothing other than the knowledge that I was up That I had taken myself beyond my admittedly conservative self-imposed limits and come out a survivor A well-known gambling industry advertisement advises us to stop when the fun stops But the hardcore gambler is brutally aware that it is exactly when “the fun stops” and the risks are real, that the thrill seems greatest. Winning the Supreme Novices with a hundred on a 20/1 horse to fuel a few festival dreams, or picking the lock of the gaoler in the last seconds of the last race? There is no comparison To be ahead of the book and winning: that is what I call “fun” To be in a dark place and punt your way back into the game. Here is the essence, I think, of what constitutes a gambler

It’s not greed. As soon as we get ahead we are finding ways to give it back. Professional punters are not gamblers They are investors – in knowledge, in form They keep their heads, they don’t get excited They’re fortunate in their wisdom in many ways, but it’s the getting carried away that counts The winning festivals are wonderful I wish all punters well, but there is something about the hot-blooded excitement of being in the punting pit that takes gambling out of its usual planetary parameters Cheltenham is one of the centres of this dangerous world, a tingling place where you find yourself torn from reality Barna Boy’s win in 1997 was a victory for ill discipline, poor punting you could say insanity I’m not proud of myself and my wild betting that year – I wouldn’t recommend that anyone take that route – but you know what? There’s no thrill quite like running the risk and coming out, somehow intact, on the other side n

Stuart Barnes is a former England rugby international who writes for The Times and commentates for Sky Sports

M O N A C O M A E L S T R O M

The Monaco GP is like nothing on earth I urge anyone who hasn’t been, whether a racing fan or not, to ink it on to your bucket list The heady mix of glamour, history, hedonism and perilous racing is as addictive as it is surreal Our team from Sky Sports arrives on the Tuesday before race day, and our feet don’t touch the ground once we are in the principality On top of our filming, there are so many events, parties and fundraisers I learned early on (the hard way) that you can’t do it all in Monaco Early work starts and late party finishes don’t mix. While I love my job, my kids Wilf (aged three) and Willow (nearly two) are my priority, so I have agreed with Sky to limit my travelling to the European rounds Where appropriate I take the family with me, and Monaco is one such place It gives me the opportunity to have breakfast with the kids and tuck them up at night, and they get to have a lovely holiday with their daddy and grandparents while I’m at work

R E D B U L L’ S W I N G S

We hit the ground running with features and interviews with the expectant drivers, all of whom say this is the race they most want to win Realistically, one of six are in with a shot of the crown this year: namely Hamilton, Bottas, Vettel, Raikkonen, Ricciardo and Verstappen from Mercedes, Ferrari and Red Bull respectively Such an open championship has kept fans gripped for the opening five rounds, and for the first time in 2018 Red Bull are the favourites to clinch the race. Monaco is a tight, twisty circuit with less emphasis on power, which suits Adrian Newey’s design very well indeed And so it proves from the off, with Verstappen and Ricciardo smashing lap records in practice

U N D E R C O V E R A S S I G N M E N T

The race weekend is spread over an extra day compared to the others, with practice on a Thursday, and Friday is theoretically a day off It’s our opportunity though to cram more features in – and this year we shoot a Bond-themed opener at the Monte Carlo casino This requires acting from all of us on the team, something that reduces us to fits of giggles and means countless retakes Simon Lazenby, aka James Bond, asking if I came there often was something I just couldn’t take seriously!

Later that day we meet up with the Starlight kids, seriously ill children who are granted their wish of coming to the Monaco Grand Prix This is always a highlight for us, and a timely reminder, among all the excitement, about what really matters These kids are always so impressive with their F1 passion and knowledge The looks on their faces when they meet their driver heroes is incredibly moving

D I A RY

by Natalie Pinkham

I learned early on (the hard way) that you can’t do it all in Monaco. early work starts and late party finishes don’t mix.

The Friday evening is all about the Amber Lounge fashion show, organised by ex-Ferrari driver Eddie Irvine’s sister Sonia in aid of Race Against Dementia, the charity set up by Sir Jackie Stewart I’ve been lucky to have presented it for the past few years I’m pretty sure they only ask me to host it to save them from having to ask me to model in it with the other ladies of F1 I did that one year, and had about as much poise as a pregnant rhino

PAT R I O T G A M E S

Saturday is all about qualifying. Daniel Ricciardo had told me that he felt at one with his car and nothing but first place on the grid would be good enough And so it is, as he hooks up a seemingly effortless lap

After qualifying we ’ re invited to the Tag Heuer boat to interview their ambassadors Bella Hadid, Tom Brady and Geri Halliwell, who are hosting a party Brady has agreed to throw a ball across the harbour to Ricciardo, who’s bobbing around on a nearby speedboat Amazingly, the Red Bull driver catches it and even punts it back to the New England Patriots legend.

Race day is another early start, and involves me interviewing Mika Hakkinen on his yacht, as he celebrates the 20th anniversar y of his first championship win Somehow he has managed to get his title-winning McLaren on to the yacht, and it looks incredible, even two decades old

Then it’s off to prepare for the track parade, where the drivers do a prerace lap of the circuit to wave to fans I interview them as they wiggle through the streets on an open-top truck. I always find it interesting to see which drivers stand together – it normally goes by nationality, but it’s telling to see who is friends with whom F1 is unique in this respect – I don’t know another sport where the contenders are interviewed so close to performing

D A N I E L’ S D AY

The race is incredibly tense for the pole-sitter Ricciardo, who after just two laps loses 25 percent of his power and has to drive a smart, measured race to prevent Vettel from beating him to the chequered flag After being robbed of the win in 2016, Ricciardo is desperate for victory, and when it comes there are tears from his parents Joe and Grace, who have made the trip from Australia to support their son

Everyone is too exhausted to go out after the race, so it’s back to our Airbnb villa for a very chilled barbecue The next day, energy levels have improved, so we go en masse to a local beach party with live music, and dancing A fitting family fun-filled end to a gloriously chaotic, action-packed race week n

Natalie Pinkham is a presenter for Sky Sports F1

HOW A LOVE OF EPSOM COOLED THE FL

Punters, like mothers giving birth, tend to remember only the excitement and success of the event, consigning the ever-present pain and anguish to the back burner of their consciousness For this reason I shan’t regale you with the many disasters of my punting career but, instead, shall concentrate on a few of the rare and unusual successes that came my way over the past 55 years If proof were needed of my punting failures, none was more public than the telegram read out by the best man at my 1968 wedding, which stated: “Congratulations, Colin, you ’ ve finally backed a winner” –signed William Hill, Joe Coral and Cyril Stein

Let me transport you back to the winter of 1990/91, when Allied forces were gathering in north-eastern Saudi Arabia, bent on reclaiming Kuwait from Saddam Hussein Mrs Thatcher had just been knifed in the back by her Tor y colleagues so John Major inherited the Kuwait dilemma, which he was tackling as a junior ally of President George Bush

By this stage I had become the Daily Mail ’ s racing correspondent (in succession to Jim Stanford) The news desk had put out a memo asking if anyone knew any Saudis who could provide details of their reaction to the presence of Western troops Foolishly, I claimed acquaintance with Prince Fahd Salman, a member of the Royal Family and the deputy governor of the province where the Allied troops were mustering I had met Prince Fahd – tall, elegant and amiable – through

my friendship with Paul Cole, with whom I enjoyed regular games of tennis Prince Fahd had around 40 horses in training with Paul and had bought Whatcombe, the magnificent Oxfordshire training establishment, to help elevate his trainer to the upper echelons of his profession Nervously I dialled the number, and to my astonishment Prince Fahd answered it himself He quickly parried questions about the imminent invasion, only to ask how Generous was getting on

For those of you too young to remember, Generous was the flashy chestnut who had been second in the 1990 Coventry Stakes and went on to win the Dewhurst Stakes that October at odds of 50/1 in Prince Fahd’s dark green colours He was relatively unconsidered in the antepost Derby betting for 1991, as horses who were placed in the Coventry Stakes tended to be sprinters and/or little more than precocious two-year-olds

Having spoken earlier to Paul, I was able to reassure the Prince that Generous still had four legs and a tail but was yet to do any serious work – it was mid-January, after all “But how is he, Colin? You must know I am so excited I can hardly sleep at night Paul is certain he will stay the Derby distance ” I demurred and uttered a few platitudes in the knowledge that all owners live the dream through their horses But when I saw he was 33/1 for the Epsom classic, I took the precaution of having a few quid on

As the day of the invasion neared, my calls to Prince Fahd became more frequent and even less informative from a mil-

itary standpoint But his enthusiasm for Generous was increasing by the hour, so much so that I was being asked how his canters went and who was riding him I checked with the bookies, who were still 25/1, so I had a little more on Prince Fahd and I were going to live the dream together or go skint in the attempt

H

e retaking of Kuwait was quick and expedient. The troops were able to advance into Kuwait and thence to Iraq, leaving Prince Fahd to concentrate on domestic matters

The University of California (Berkeley) graduate was a director of a space technology firm in Riyadh on top of his political work Unlike most Saudis, including his uncle Prince Khaled Abdullah, he did not enjoy a huge income from oil revenues

A Derby win by Generous would not only be a great sporting achievement, it would also help cement the Prince’s place in British racing history and fund his expanding racing empire, which included the Newgate studs in Dorset and Lexington Generous’s odds had shortened to 20/1 with the news he was being prepared for the 2000 Guineas “How is he, Colin?” was the constant refrain Knowing he was talking regularly to Paul and to his racing manager Anthony Penfold, what could I say that would add to his knowledge of the horse’s wellbeing?

Guineas day and Generous was quite well fancied for the Newmarket classic, which always was and probably always

AMES OF WAR

will be the best form guide to the Derby Despite the best efforts of trainer and jockey Richard Quinn, Generous could manage only fourth place, nine lengths behind Clive Brittain’s 13/2 winner Mystiko Prince Fahd was little consoled when I offered him that old canard, “Fourth in the Guineas wins the Derby” Indeed, the Prince was so distraught that he surprised the racing world by replacing Quinn as Generous’s jockey with the young and ambitious Alan Munro, who was only a few months out of his apprenticeship Generous was now 14/1 for Epsom, and I became more convinced that he was a Derby horse guaranteed to stay, having seen him somewhat outpaced at Newmarket before staying on well in the final furlong Quinn was equally convinced he would stay the Derby trip, although he was never to find out himself

What few had known – with the obvious exception of the trainer and jockey – was that Generous had suffered a minor bruising to his foot and Paul Cole had not been able to give him the perfect preparation for the Guineas He had been a gallop short but had come out of the race very well His main work rider, Tommy Jennings, reported that he had really come to himself in the final days of May His biggest fan in the press room was starting to locate his confidence, and a further investment at 14/1 was made after Generous had dominated a private gallop at Newbury racecourse, beating some Group-winning stablemates in facile fashion

Still, Generous had failed to catch the public’s imagination as a potential winner of the blue riband of racing. Maybe it was his unfashionable chestnut coat or his jockey’s lack of experience, but on the morning of 5 June 1991 he could still be backed at 12/1 in some places, eventually settling at a starting price of 9/1 The good news was that the Cole horses were all in sparkling form as he marched inexorably towards the trainers’ championship of that year

In fairness to Munro, who suffered a backlash of public hostility as he took over from the popular Quinn, he had won his first four races as Prince Fahd’s retained jockey A four-day riding ban which ended the day before the Derby meant he had plenty of time to do his homework, enlisting the advice of Lester Piggott’s father Keith And he studied videos of all Lester’s Derby wins He had ridden Generous only twice in work but was happy enough that the colt was without vices

The race itself could not have been more straightforward for Generous, who followed the fast gallop set by 2000 Guineas hero Mystiko on springy good to firm going that Cole’s colt preferred When Mystiko’s suspect stamina evaporated around Tattenham Corner, Munro seized the moment and dashed Generous to the front, where he galloped straight and true, winning by five lengths from Marju, with Star of Gdansk a further seven lengths back To the amazement of my sports editor I had given the one, two, three in correct order, not that I had risked a bean on the trifecta I was more than happy with the Generous nest egg that would eventually fund my daughter Tara’s wedding

Prince Fahd commissioned Philip Blacker to sculpt a statue of Generous behind the Epsom grandstand; its twin is at Whatcombe Generous went on to do me another favour when easily beating Suave Dancer, the impressive winner of the French Derby, in a thrilling Irish Derby at the Curragh. I had been at trainer John Hammond’s Chantilly yard the week before to do a preview piece when he bet me £200 that his colt would beat Generous He would get his revenge eventually when a below-par Generous flopped in the Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe in the autumn of 1991

Sadly Prince Fahd, such a generous and fun person to be around, died at the age of 46 from heart failure in the summer of 2001 It was a blow not only to his family and friends but also to the Master of Whatcombe, who lost a leading patron By then Paul had purchased Whatcombe from the Prince, but losing a man who had owned Classic winners in England, Ireland, Italy and Germany was a bitter pill to swallow n

Colin Mackenzie is a former foreign and racing correspondent for the Daily Mail, the Daily Express, and the Racing Post

The Miss World competition was not an obvious event for a betting coup, but I and around 20 colleagues on the Daily Express managed a minor success in 1967, the first occasion it was televised live

As a cub reporter, I was despatched to the lead-up events to get good stories and to determine who was going to win I decided Miss Peru was a bit special Despite the enormous field, she was only around 16/1 I reported back to my superiors and, to my astonishment, was handed £200 to place a bet in the betting shop beneath our offices Staff had risked up to £5 each (about a sixth of their weekly wages) on my

opinion I added a fiver myself and was told by my bosses (only half joking) that my future on the paper depended on Miss Peru delivering In 1967 there was no need for the contestants to say much in interviews, which was just as well for Miss Peru as she had little English What she did possess were stunning looks, and she was 10/1 by the time swimsuits were donned Eric Morley finally announced the top three in reverse order, with Miss Guyana (later Mrs Shakira Caine, wife of Michael) in third, Miss Argentina in second and – wait for it –Madeline Hartog-Bel, Miss Peru, in first place A South American clean sweep! I went to collect the winnings the next day (more than £3,000), and my job was safe for another few years An old bookie once said to me: “Never bet on anything that can talk ” He might have been right

12 FOUR-YEAR ITCH

The World Cup may have lost some lustre, but once it starts we won’t mind a

bit, says Iain Macintosh

As the most ludicrously goal-drenched semi-finals in Champions League history drew to a sweaty conclusion in May, one thought sprang to mind: how on earth is the World Cup going to compete with this? The club game is utterly exhilarating It’s never been in better health Thanks to the avalanches of television money that have swept in over the past 20 years, Europe’s top teams are pulsating with talent Club football has Real Madrid against Liverpool Ooooh! The World Cup kicks off with Russia against Saudi Arabia Oh International football used to be considered the very summit of the game, the best teams led by the best managers But is that the case now? Are England better than Liverpool? Is Gareth Southgate better than Jürgen Klopp? That’s a big no on both counts, isn’t it?

After two and a half years of Klopp’s frenzied tutelage, Liverpool are a ferocious machine of extinctionlevel event destruction, carefully oiled and calibrated for that 4-3-GAAARGH! formation that has done so much damage to so many teams Gareth Southgate’s England, by stark contrast, are a nice, environmentally friendly bus, well meaning, entirely inoffensive and easily overtaken And what else could they be? The poor man gets a handful of days with an ever-changing cast of players every few months Creating something as complex and seductive

Twenty years on, England fans still see red when they think of referee Kim Milton Nielsen

as Klopp’s Liverpool is nigh on impossible in these circumstances

As for the competition itself, even Fifa would have to admit it no longer has the primacy it once enjoyed International tournaments used to be long festivals of football served up for a hungry audience, but this audience is bloated on live action now

Back in the Eighties, ITV had the right to broadcast one single game of football every week, and sometimes they didn’t even use it Now you can watch multiple games every day from around the world, most of which are likely to be far more entertaining than Russia against Saudi Arabia

And yet none of this will mean anything to the English this summer

However cynical you ’ ve become, however much you value club over country, there is a clear and present threat that something very odd will happen to you in June We know this because it always does

It’s easy to look back at the 2014 World Cup and scoff at such notions

I know all this ends in tears. And it won’t stop me. I’ll get sucked up into it all over again.

After all, the tournament began on 12 June and England were out by the 19th Five days later, they fulfilled their obligations to the tournament with Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard playing together in the middle again for one last encore of ineffectual dirge It felt like a dirty protest And as if to emphasise their lack of relevance, England were kept off the back pages by analysis of Luis Suarez’s latest act of vampirism and what it would mean for his future at Liverpool

WINNER

Brazil 9/2

Belgium 11/1

Germany 9/2 England 16/1

Spain 6/1 Por tugal 25/1

France 6/1

Argentina 9/1

Uruguay 28/1

TOP GOALSCORER

Messi 9/1 Werner 16/1

Neymar 10/1

Jesus 16/1

Griezman 12/1 Lukaku 18/1

Ronaldo 12/1 Cos ta 25/1

Kane 16/1

TO WIN GROUP G

Belgium 4/5 Tunisia 14/1

England 5/4 Panama 28/1

TOTAL ENGLAND GOALS

Over/under 8 5 goals 10/11

Additional matches and markets available upon reques t

Prices subjec t to change

But search back through your memories of that summer Go back to that roasting hot Saturday before England kicked off You were probably at a barbecue You might have watched Colombia obliterate Greece You almost certainly watched Costa Rica stun Uruguay And yet all you were talking about was how England would fare against Italy And when it began, admit it, you were a little impressed at how England went about their business At how quickly they recovered from going a goal down Did you leap up when Raheem Sterling appeared to have cracked one in from distance? I bet you did

This always happens That bewitching, beguiling and entirely illogical burst of optimism

Sometimes it doesn’t happen for very long Like in 2010, when England took an early lead against the USA, gifted them an equaliser, sagged to a 1-1 draw and eventually went out to Germany without having the good grace to even make it to penalties But sometimes that optimism builds up like canal water at a lock gate, pushing and straining to be free Sometimes it overwhelms you.

This spring, I worked with US podcasting company Gimlet on a series of football shows, tapping into more than three decades of my own simmering World Cup resentment for their delectation It was startling how little it took to invoke those memories. When I sat down to watch England’s 1998 exit to Argentina, I was in a very good mood A couple of hours later I was ready to flip my desk over, set light to the office and smear obscene messages to Danish referee Kim Milton Nielsen on the wall in my own excrement I still cared

I watched the footage of a paternal Bobby Robson embracing Paul Gascoigne in 1990 and I welled up like it was the last half-hour of Marley & Me When I was asked about Diego Maradona in 1986, I regressed into my eight-year-old self and whined about his handball all over again Your national team: they get to you; they get deep inside you, swirling about in your marrow And don’t think that just because you were blown away by Liverpool’s European efforts that you ’ re immune You’re clearly not And that’s why I know it will all happen again, in spite of all expectations I know England aren’t very good I know the World Cup is not as glamorous as the Champions League I know all this ends in tears And it won’t stop me I’ll get sucked up into it all over again, staking out my place in the pub three hours before kick-off, roaring with pleasure when Sterling zips down the flank and howling in agony when whichever misbegotten England player it is this year who misses that crucial penalty (It’s Jordan Henderson, isn’t it?)

It’s easy enough to sit here now and say the World Cup has lost its sparkle But I’m very much afraid that you, me and them over there, we ’ re all just weeks away from completely losing our wits all over again n

Iain Macintosh is a football writer and broadcaster You can hear him on The Totally Football Show – podcasts available on iTunes

1. If someone showed you 20 horses but you could only take 10 home, and you were not allowed to look at their pedigrees, how would you choose which ten to take?

Harry Charlton I would be looking for the 10 best athletes All trainers and agents have different conformational priorities, but I think most would agree you need an athletic horse They need to be able to use themselves, especially through their hocks They have to push Conformation of a horse is an aspect that is crucial to its future training and racing I am looking for a classy head, large kind eye, good-sized nostril and a sloping shoulder Good depth from the withers to the girth and from the point of the shoulder to the wither, a correct hind leg and a horse with some width Feet can cause more problems than people imagine I would also be making the most of the vet Clean set of x-rays and a good scope, please!

Charlie Johnston This would be an unusual approach for me, as pedigree is where I always begin when going to the sales But in this case the aim would always be to try to buy the one with the Ferrari engine rather than the one with the Pirelli tyres – in other words, focusing on the stronger and more powerful individuals

rather than those with perceived ‘perfect’ conformation

Sean Quinn I’d pick the 10 that appeared the most athletic I like a horse that walks well and is active

A good hind leg is important, as that’s where much of a horse’s propulsion comes from A broad, deep chest often indicates plenty of heart room too I’d be more forgiving of a horse with faults in his/her conformation if I were purchasing it for flat racing rather than jumping

2. Monogamy or polygamy? What will your approach to bloodstock agents be?

Harry You need to be married to someone who respects the same qualities as yourself, and in that sense one agent would seem sensible But the racing world is not that simple, and agents are just as likely to find a client as a trainer is – perhaps more likely, given they don’t have to be tied to the yard daily So more often than not it’s an agent who approaches a trainer with a horse On top of that, agents can also be very specialist in one subject For that reason you need to have multiple relationships and you won’t always use the same agent

Charlie There are very few yards who don’t routinely use agents, of which we are one, and it

is likely this is an approach I will continue with Obviously certain owners have agents that they like to use and we are more than happy to work with them, but when it comes to buying the 50plus horses “ on spec ” that we do each season, I think we offer a great service Dad and I, two qualified vets, attend all the major yearling sales in the northern hemisphere and buy a broad spectrum of yearlings for owners to choose from, and we charge no commission I think this is a unique selling point for us

Sean I think bloodstock agents are important for trainers in this day and age as the role of a trainer is far more intricate and timeconsuming than in generations past It is very difficult for trainers to research thousands of horses yearly at sales on top of looking after their own Ideally, I would work closely with one so that we were singing from the same hymn sheet

3. In jump racing, trainers can gain an edge by getting their horses to jump better. As a flat trainer, how would you create an edge?

Harry Flat horses are bred to be more precocious and tend to be a bit more fragile of mind It’s essential that they have a good start to their careers, as we work

with them from the age of one, as opposed to three or four It’s very important to get them in the right mental state before they start racing Getting a two-year-old to win is easily achievable, but you have to get them in the right mental state if you want them to progress from year to year and become champions in later years The stalls are an important aspect of flat racing Horses that get upset during the stalls process can increase their heart rate at the wrong time and impact their performance

Charlie In the closing stages of a race, it is largely down to the horse’s natural ability But it is your job as a trainer to ensure that the first three-quarters of the race go as smoothly and professionally as possible We break the vast majority of our yearlings in ourselves and as a result most of our two-year-olds have very good temperaments and aren’t keen or difficult during the race Further to this, we do a huge amount of stalls work with them before they run so they are quickly away and able to gain a good position A race can easily be lost at the start

Sean Getting all the small things right from an early stage is very important Making horses accustomed to alien objects such as starting stalls and horse boxes on a regular basis helps them to

relax on race day (when they are faced with such objects), which in turn can only aid performance

4. What can racing do to help younger trainers? For example, could the BHA hold races for trainers who have held a licence for two years or less?

Harry I think the programme book allows horses of any ability to compete at the correct level, and therefore the provision of specific races for younger trainers isn’t necessary I think many young trainers starting out on their own would like affordable yards and would love help setting up Newmarket and the other major training establishments are expensive due to the lack of supply The younger generation are going to need to be very wealthy before they start training to try to buy those yards

A lot of young trainers go from being an assistant, where they have no involvement in the running of the business, to suddenly having their own yard That could be the biggest challenge and maybe support can be provided to help from the business point of view

Training partnerships or cotraining partnerships could be a big aid to new trainers in England Trainers create these businesses that essentially have no value at

the end of it Once a trainer retires the goodwill built disappears pretty quickly Many people have different skill sets in a business, and I think trainers in the UK can grow in a partnership

Charlie I don’t think I would want special dispensation in certain races, I would be keen to take on the seasoned trainers on a level playing field I do think, though, that the relevance of certain parts of the licensing course are hard to fathom And perhaps the process needs to be reviewed, like the apprentice course has been recently, so that people are better equipped when they start training

Sean As a fledgling trainer you have to be competitive from an early stage To do that you have to take on the bigger yards and beat them, not shy away from them

Slow/bad payers are a worry for any trainer and can sink an operation Young or new trainers are especially vulnerable to this and we have very little protection Jockeys are paid what they are owed directly via a Weatherbys account – it would be great if one day trainers received payment in a similar way, and bad debtors were unable to own and run horses if bills were not paid

5. How would you feel if you lost a race to a jockey

who broke the whip rule while yours adhered to it?

Harry I think the rules need to be more strongly enforced

Punishments for the jockey are not severe enough, and jockeys are willing to break the rules, especially in big races The horse still wins the race and the value to the owner and trainer is massive, so you can see why a jockey would want to get the victory at all costs

Watching Al Kazeem going down to Noble Mission in the Champion Stakes by a neck, with James Doyle using the whip more than the permitted level, felt a bit odd A £10,000 fine and a sevenday ban seem a small price to pay when you win more than £50,000, keep your retained owner happy and aid the horse’s stallion career

I don’t blame the jockeys, but we should make it easier for them by making it black and white and bring the punishment to the other connections by penalising them as well if the rules are broken

Charlie It’s very tricky, because it would always be hard to prove that the difference in whip use between the jockeys had definitely altered the result Nothing would be more frustrating than a horse not winning because the jockey was unable to utilise his full powers of coercion – some horses require more encouragement than others

Sean I suppose it would depend on the margin of defeat my horse suffered I don’t suppose I’d be too happy if the winning jockey had breached the rules!

6. What are your thoughts on the industry’s issues with stable staff shortages, retention and longevity? Can young people look at horse racing as a career, not just a hobby?

Harry There is no easy solution We are an entertainment industry and our job is to race horses at whenever it is deemed to be a good time to do so Young people have more opportunities than they used to, and it isn’t everyone ’ s dream to go to Wolverhampton at 9 15pm on a Saturday

I suspect the improvement in the economy in Ireland is stopping a lot of Irish people going into racing On top of that, the racing industry requires people to be less than 912 stone and people are getting taller and taller, meaning our pool is getting smaller

I think it can be a career and there are so many things that people can do in the industry They have to remember that their skills are very valuable all over the world and it is better than being stuck behind a desk

Charlie This is difficult because I feel we make a huge effort to do

plenty for our staff, yet it is not the complete cure to staff retention We offer a huge amount of training, with an in-house jockey coach as well as training days hosted by world-renowned Yogi Breisner We give branded clothing, have a free staff canteen, as well as giving a bonus for every winner we have I don’t think people who view it as a hobby last very long, because a huge amount of dedication is required – the hours are long, and we are a weekend industry where Fridays and Saturdays are our busiest days, and people have to accept that

Sean Stable staffing issues are as bad as they’ve ever been The bottom line is that there are not enough highly skilled staff and riders available to many yards In the long term, I feel the development of racing colleges is a must We need to make the possibility of a career in racing available to as many young people as possible In the short term, I’d question whether increasing the amount of racing, which puts obvious strains on existing staff, is very fair to them

7. What is the most fun, or memorable (for better or worse!) bet you’ve ever had?

Harry I think Blue Monday winning the Cambridgeshire in

2005 was one of the better days He ran at Newbury a couple of weeks before and finished second, beaten a short head in the big 10f handicap As they went across the line a friend and I went to the bookies on the rail and asked for his price in the Cambridgeshire They said 25/1, having not really factored in what had just happened Two weeks later he appeared a well-backed 5/1 favourite and sluiced home

Charlie I had £20 on Attraction to win the Guineas in 2004 I remember being in the winners’ enclosure after the race and unable to find my betting slip About an hour after the race, I headed back up to the owners and trainers, and as the lift doors in the grandstand opened, there on the floor was a betting slip, and sure enough it was mine At the age of 13, that was quite a significant and lucky find!

Sean My most memorable bet is an antepost one on Recession Proof to win what is now known as the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury I was at university and used a good chunk of my student loan to place the bet His short-head victory was a bit too close for comfort, and I shudder to think of what an existence on Pot Noodles for the following 12 months might have been like if he’d been beaten n

DRIVE FOR SHOW,

The data revolution has reached the world of golf, with analytics aiding players’ preparation. We ask

Data analytics is just a way to say “better information” It’s about quantifying elements of a business or process that previously weren’t quantifiable so that decision makers and stakeholders have the most accurate information In football, using analytics we can help executives judge the quality of a vast number of potential transfer signings, highlight undervalued or overvalued leagues, and identify the true talent of their team In golf we can measure how well a player is performing across their game, which courses or events best suit their specific style of play and goals, and what the best way to play a hole is Each of these tasks is about translating data into insights so that the people responsible for making decisions (executives, golfers, coaches, etc) are as well informed as possible

How did you first get introduced to Darren Clarke?

Darren was the touring professional at The Astbury, where our now head of golf Duncan Carey was the head PGA professional Duncan, being aware of the work 21st Club were doing in the football world, had a meeting with Darren, who said he just had to have something similar to enable him to plan for the Ryder Cup

Talk us through the type of recommendations you made to Darren Clarke before the 2016 Ryder Cup at Hazeltine.

We worked ver y closely with Darren and the vice-captains for 18 months We built an app whereby the captain could log in at any time to look at metrics such as driving accuracy and greens in regulation (GIR), as well as all the new ‘strokes gained’ numbers for all areas of the game These numbers were continually updated automatically within the app, to ensure the information was current and correct We also compiled comprehensive reports looking at pairing strategies, current form, course demands and advice on wild-card picks 15th Club were the only data company or broadcaster collecting live shot-by-shot data during every session at the Ryder Cup, and this was available instantly to the captain and vice-captains to assess each player and pairing performance Our team were on hand to advise and direct the captain on all things statistical Obviously this information had to be put together with lots of other softer factors

What is the most fruitful insight you have delivered to any player?

Ahead of the 2016 Masters we worked with Danny Willett and his caddie Jonathan Smart to plot their optimum course strategy for Augusta We knew from our analysis that Danny’s

INPUT FOR DOUGH

Have you got the Team Europe contract for this year’s Ryder Cup at Le Golf National, and what is the brief ?

Yes, we have been working with Thomas Bjorn and Robert Karlsson on Ryder Cup 2018 since the end of 2016 The brief is to work very closely with Robert to monitor the prospective players from a numbers point of view Again the captain and vice-captain are using our unique software to stay fully informed on the form of the team’s potential players We will be advising on wildcard selection, pairings and course strategy and will be on hand in Paris also to assist the team

With data being so easily accessible now (ie PGA Tour stats), what makes 15th Club better? For example, a course that needs driving accuracy as a key attribute, are tour stats a good enough indicator? The main problem with golf stats as they are traditionally presented is a lack of context The advent of the PGA Tour’s Shot Link system and the creation of Waggle on the European Tour has allowed for a vast number of new stats to be created: proximity to the hole, putting percentages from various distances, etc However, most of these stats don’t take into account the context by which they were generated

The traditional statistics (GIR, scrambling, putts per round, etc) that have driven the conversation around golf for years claim to measure a part of the game (ball-striking for GIR, short game play for scrambling, etc), but really measure parts of other elements of the game They fail to isolate ball-striking performance or putting performance. Strokes gained statistics have received such wide adoption in recent years because they come much closer to telling the true story of a player’s performance

The traditional stats are ill-suited for the type of detailed analysis that top professionals are now demanding When you break down such stats, you find that GIR is influenced as much by how well you drive it as how well you hit your approach shots, scrambling is influenced as much by putting as chipping, and putts per round is mostly a function of whether you ’ re hitting the green (where you ’ re typically two-putting) or scrambling (where you ’ re much more likely to one-putt) We have calculated that using putts per round and putts per GIR is only a 65 per cent indicator of underlying putting performance

What provides your team with more satisfaction: helping a client who has been with you since day one to win a major, or helping a captain make a pick that ultimately wins them the Ryder Cup? Both! We can be involved day-to-day with certain players and watch them improve, grow as a player, and achieve their goals, but also be involved in more long-term strategy around the Ryder Cup/Solheim Cup Also, at the Ryder Cup you feel more like you ’ re playing the opposition as well as the course, so game theory comes into play

Do you believe there can ever be an over-reliance on statistical data?

Yes – data won’t tell you everything We’ve had examples of where we ’ ve had to encourage our clients to focus less on the data, because there may be a better way of solving a problem There’s certainly a balance to be found in the use of statistical data – but sport in general is starting from a situation just a decade ago where there was very little or no rigorous use of data Because sport in general and golf specifically are starting from such a low level, there’s much more room to introduce data into the conversation around the game We’re just another voice in the room, but one that’s growing to become more trusted and relied upon At the same time, those working in golf have a responsibility to use data responsibly We must focus on finding applicable insights from data, not just display numbers without meaning behind them

Do you think statistical analysis in golf is of greater importance than other sports utilising similar technologies?

approach play was brilliant from around 100 yards, so a key part of the plan was to get him to attack the pins from those distances on par fours and fives If you look back at a list of the top performers by shot type during the 2016 Masters, Danny is nowhere to be seen Rather than excelling in any particular aspect, the key to Danny’s victory was that he made only eight bogeys during the entire event The field averaged bogey or worse on 26 per cent of their holes, Danny on just 11 per cent Sometimes it’s not the shots you make, it’s the mistakes you avoid Danny’s incredible success at Augusta showed the value of objective data in the creation of a tailored strategy designed to meet the challenges of the course and amplify a player’s specific strengths When diligent planning is combined with great execution, a player gives themselves a far better shot at success and, as Danny proved, the rewards can be significant

Do you ever get it wrong – mistaking noise for signals, for instance? It’s not about being “right” or “ wrong ” , but about mitigating risk and finding the small edges – nudging the odds in your favour Anyone working in the data and insight space has made the wrong call based on the evidence available We focus more on following consistent and replicable processes to mitigate risk and find small edges for our clients

Maybe not greater importance as data can be useful in every sport, but maybe there’s an opportunity to get a bigger edge The nature of the sport lends itself well to an analytical approach Statistical analysis in golf is directly applicable to the work a golfer and coach are doing in a way that is distinct from team sport

In team sport, analytics is typically more easily used in player acquisition and remuneration at the boardroom level and in terms of tactics and player selection on the field In golf, it lends itself to direct use by players, caddies, coaches, and agents That means the rewards are more immediate for players – they can see the rewards in terms of winnings, world rankings, and wins more directly than a player in football or basketball

players are most suited to the course and would make your shortlist? Obviously form leading up to the event will be key in determining the players to look out for, but amoung the ones who perform well on links golf courses are Tyrrell Hatton, Rickie Fowler, Henrik Stenson, and Chris Wood Nearer the time we will be putting together our Open guide with more

n

YOU CAN’T PUT A

P R I C E O N S T Y L E

Star stylist William Gilchrist offers his top (hat) tips on what to wear during the summer season

Fi r s t ly i s h o u l d like to begin with an apology to the female readership Although much of my work involves aesthetics of all things, in this case

I shall be focusing on menswear and gingerly sidestepping the minefields that lie in wait for womenswear in this field. My one piece of advice that does apply to both sexes is that you are attending an event, not vice versa Having said that, enjoy

With the sporting season in full swing, one ’ s attire and that of those around you need a moment of consideration. As a rule of thumb I always invoke the three Rs when looking at the dress code for the season: Required, Requested, Relevant

R E QU I R E D

Let’s start with the most rigid: Royal Ascot, particularly the Royal enclosure This is in the “Required” class, which makes it a simple affair Tick the boxes, get a good set of wellfitting kit and you ’ re off

You can’t wear an Ascot-style cravat in the Royal enclosure, as ties are required – which will come as a relief if you ’ ve seen the coquettish silken slugs that adorn some chaps’ necks If you ’ re not in the Royal enclosure, then cravats can be worn The Ascot style is more casual, in which the cravat is worn inside the shirt collar Strangely enough, in the 1800s, the then Prince Regent, George, and Beau Brummel cemented this unwavering rule to ensure elegance at the races What originated from a riding coat became the Newmarket coat, which over time evolved into the elegant morning coat

Wear black or grey – wedding rules do not apply here So if you are neither the groom nor the father of the bride you are perfectly within your rights to don the grey as well as the black Top hats are also required –ensure a good fit, worn straight We all love the Artful Dodger but that was a film; Fred Astaire was pretty good too, so if you can dance like that then I bow in deference Otherwise, wear it straight And black shoes

On another note regarding the Royal enclosure, you are within your rights as a visitor from foreign climes to wear your national dress

Meanwhile, you can’t wear a Henley at Henley (unless you are using an oar) Once again here, the strict rules are for the enclosures: step out of them and you ’ re in a world of

well, you ’ re out in the world Summer suits, ties, team blazers, all good to go Never made the team? Don’t don some garish striped blazer – those are badges of honour worn by men and women who have at some point given their all to the blade

As with all outdoor UK events, the Henley weather is as unpredictable as the Grand National – but you should be optimistic On a hot day, wear pale colours in cottons and or linens Wear an undershirt – it will keep you warm on cold days and absorb perspiration on those hot days There is little less easy on the eye than a chap in a soaked-through shirt mopping his forehead An undershirt will actually keep you cooler as well

like rubble Seated events tend to keep the best seats for the chosen ones, so when you are a captive audience – such as at cricket or tennis – take a hat along It tends to be the members’ seats that keep the shade, though that’s not a dead cert, and although sunglasses really should be for sailing boats they may be needed as you fight the glare from the bald heads before you

A good panama cuts a fine figure and comes in various guises For me and my bald pate, a Montecristi doesn’t allow my head to breathe particularly once you see the price tag. So my choice is a crocheted panama, which lets the air in and the wallet breathe a sigh of relief

R E L E VA N T

It seems to me that many spectators dress like the athletes. I’ve never had the nerve or desire to look like an athlete, and in no way could I Frankly, most modern sportswear is hewn from some of the most revolting fabrics I have ever laid hands on and I wouldn’t want anywhere near me, unless I were congratulating the players Get a well-cut and shaped wardrobe, because unlike the athletes we don’t normally have the framework to doff a synthetic tent and look good

Think of your wardrobe as a fine building Start with good foundations: Clean polished shoes, over-the-calf socks (if worn – your choice), comfortable underwear (the only lines one should see should demarcate the pitch), an undershirt (for reasons already stated)

William Gilchrist has styled, among others, The Rolling Stones never made the rowing team? Don’t don a garish striped blazer –those are badges of honour.

A plethora of sporting events proffer some guidance and or even suggestions over what to wear

The Kentucky Oaks Day organisers suggest a nod to their emblem, the Stargazer lily, and suggest putting some pink into your wardrobe That’s not a problem – it’s a gent friendly colour Have fun, and just avoid being the object of it

“Summer Suit” is often the request at events If you ’ re going to be sitting down for most of your day, then choose cotton/linen blends or high-twist lightweight wools, which are more breathable and don’t crease Otherwise, what can start the day as a rake will end up looking

An often neglected item is the handkerchief – not a pocket square, but a tool for yourself or those nearby in need Sit down in a shirt before purchasing – are the buttons trying to escape their buttonholes? Has the shirttail already made the escape? Many shirts are too short in the body –this is a manufacturer scrimping to increase profit If your suit is off the peg it can still be fine-tuned to your unique body Get it looked at by a professional, not necessarily the shop where you bought it Sit down in it, jacket closed

Television and tabloid have almost destroyed the concept of a well-fitting suit but Fitzdares will never allow that to happen to you

Now go forth and enjoy n

Whether you are buying red diamonds, a Bahamas holiday or half a dozen bananas, someone, somewhere has chosen and assigned a price at which you may buy You may consider their evaluation a bargain and good value, or extortionate and overpriced I have sat on this side of the gambling industry fence for many years now, predominantly as a horse racing price maker and odds compiler How do I compile odds and price races, I am constantly asked Well, here goes

With the world’s information so much more readily accessible, gone are the days when odds compilers emerged from a darkened room having been surrounded by desk calculators, VHS recorders and Timeform Black Books Now we have statistical models and digital form analysis, all available at the click of a button, as well as numerous online bookmakers with ‘early shows’, exchanges, and tipsters all vying for our custom They can all help a line maker, but the art of odds compiling hasn’t changed, and indeed many professional gamblers still choose to compile their own odds in order to identify market value

A bettor and a compiler will break down a race the same way, but while one has an objective – to back the winner – the other is being subjective, looking to assign each horse a percentage chance of winning Under that day’s conditions, if a race were run an infinite number of times, what percentage would each horse win? Effectively as a bookmaker, I am aiming to lay every horse at the right percentage To get there, I liken it to piecing together a jigsaw puzzle No two races are the same, yet every compilation starts the same way – with a blank sheet of paper It would be remiss of me to suggest that a horse’s current form, trainer and jockey, particularly names like Aidan O’Brien and Frankie Dettori, are not of obvious significance when putting the four corner pieces down What follows, however, may provide more insight to the nuances of the process

RACE CONDITIONS – INITIAL RESEARCH

My second career may be as a weather forecaster! It is crucial to know the expected state of ground conditions for a race, so a large amount of time is spent obtaining the most accurate and specific weather forecasts I would always start by familiarising myself with past history and trends of a race

GROUND, DISTANCE, TRACK & DRAW ANALYSIS

In my opinion the most important variable in any horse race is the going If a horse doesn’t act on the ground, it is much less likely to win All horses stay, some just stay faster than others, but proven suitability of unique tracks like Brighton (where some horses are all at sea) is a big plus, as is obviously a low draw at Chester

VIDEO ANALYSIS

There is no substitute for watching a race and forming your own opinion – then you can only blame yourself ! A desperately unlucky run or a horse drawn on the wrong part of the track may necessitate a form upgrade, or conversely a horse that hung left under pressure may not cope in a big field at Epsom A small filly may not want to be burdened with carr ying heavy weights in handicaps Trust your own eyes

RANKING AND RATING

I would initially assign a personal rating for each horse, accompanied with any salient notes, based on ability, the aforementioned variables, and their suitability for that day’s race This effectively gives me a relative rating, and a ranked order of the most likely winners down to the outsiders

SHAPING THE RACE

ASSISTANCE

There are many good sources of speed ratings, and while I try to keep their reliance in pricing to a minimum, only good horses can run fast It may highlight a speedy final furlong in a previous race that may give a horse a great chance in a race expected to be run slowly. Horses get assistance too, and any change of headgear may give them the extra focus they need, especially for that horse that you spotted hanging left

OTHER FACTORS

With a bookmaker’s hat on, it might be that commercially we need to be as competitive as possible for a particular horse on a certain day, which also needs to be considered Any current liabilities, previous market moves, or even particularly popular horses can all affect the prices

PRICING

After adjusting my initial ratings to encompass any educated guesswork such as race speed and shape, now the pricing The most important horse in any market is the favourite A clear favourite is easier to price than a race with many fancied runners In truth, there is no hard and fast way to price the jolly, only that with experience it becomes instinctive All the other horses have a lesser percentage chance of winning related to the favourite and are simply priced accordingly

CONTINUED FLUIDITY

So many factors can continue to influence prices until the race A trainer or jockey may be blitzing their way through the card, or a big draw bias may become prevalent A deluge of rain may have resulted in withdrawals, or a performance on the card may have boosted another horse’s form I have always found it so important to be flexible and modifiable – the most successful and strongest opinions are very often when you have changed your mind late on

SUCCESS OR FAILURE?

I am always asked how odds compilers are measured What makes a good one? The current oncourse starting price return serves as one tangible measure of accuracy, but in such a subjective occupation is it better to price a losing 2/1 favourite at 6/1, or a winning 6/1 chance at 2/1? Who is right and who is wrong? In the gambling industry, sometimes it is better to be lucky, rather than clever n

I try to predict how the race will be run by analysing individual running styles We may discover half the field like to go forward early and a strong pace is guaranteed, in which case they may all compromise each other’s chance of winning There may be a race with only one front runner, so an easy, controlled lead is expected – but if that horse is drawn in the car park there might be no pace at all Of course, things very rarely pan out as expected, but races are often won by the smallest margins

Glyn Warne is Fitzdares’ head of antepost and international horseracing

FIGHTING FUTURES

Thirty weeks after our firs t FITZDARES FIGHTING FUTURES boxing event at the NED, w here we showcased the bes t amateur boxers in the Greater London area, we take a look at w hat the fighters from Finchley ABC, Dale You th ABC, Lynn AC, Lewsey ABC and Fitzroy Lodge ABC have been up to in their relentless pursuit to be the next Olympic s tars in this ancient and pure spor t.

SEAN MURPHY

Head coach of Finchley ABC

Frankie Storey has had four more fights since the show and has won them all, on e by TKO He’s showing incredible promise and it’s proving hard to m atch him with other boxers – he is just that good Jon athan Kum uteo, having lost to Shockie Khan, has gon e on to win on e and lose on e. He’s had a few injuries recently and as a result he has been in and out the gym Jack Johnston e has had three more fights – most recently he was ver y unluck y to be on the wrong side of a split decision However, he has been boxing ver y well, winning the other two fights convincingly

MICK DELANEY

Head coach of Dale Youth ABC Unfor tun ately Kyran O’Neill has had quite a few injuries since the Fitzdares Fighting Futures, and as a result there is nothing to repor t on that front Dale Youth as a gym has gon e from strength to strength, though, producing four n ation al youth champions, four n ation al novice champions and two n ation al ABA champions – on e being the clu b’s first ever fem ale n ation al champion! It has also m an aged to rebuild the gym after the horrors of the Grenfell Tower disaster

TERRY PEARSON

Head coach of Lynn AC

Charlie Wincott had another fight just after Christm as, unfor tun ately being on the losing end of a ver y tight decision His university studies kept him out of the gym through the New Year but he’s now back training and is hungrier than ever

DANNY LEWSEY

Head coach of Lewsey ABC

Shockie Khan went on to win the Nor th West London light middleweight title, where he successfully defended it against another Fighting Future boxer, Jon athan Kum uteo of Finchley Boxing Clu b In April Khan reached the semi-fin als of the senior championships, where he lost on points.

MARK REIGATE

Head coach of Fitzroy Lodge ABC

Tosin Olakekan has had three fights, winning two convincingly but then losing in the quar ter-fin als of the ABAs to a boxer from Dale Youth Charley Harrison, who was origin ally on the card to fight Frankie Storey at the Fitzdares Fighting Futures but had to pull out because of a bad cut, has just gon e on to win the ABAs for the second time in three years.

S E V E N M O N T H S O N

1

A

L

After a penalty was awarded in a Premiership game at Highbur y in 1997, the Liverpool s triker said he had not been fouled by goalkeeper

David Seaman The referee insis ted a spot-kick s till had to be taken, so Fowler hit a weak shot s traight at Seaman, w hich he saved (although Jason McAteer scored from the rebound) Fowler later received a commendation from Uefa for his ac tions

2

John Francome passed up the oppor tunity to win his four th ou tright National Hunt jockeys’ championship after Peter Scudamore suffered a season-ending injur y Francome pulled level with his rival’s tally bu t opted not to ride for the res t of the season He later said his decision was based on respec t for Scudamore, w ho he felt deser ved something for a fine season

3

High-school s tudent Jason

McElwain hadn’ t seen a minu te of playing time for the Greece Athena Trojans owing to his au tism

However, coach Johnson arranged for McElwain, his team manager, to play a few minu tes at the end of one game, and after he missed his firs t shot he ended up scoring 20 points

McElwain won an ESPY for Bes t Spor ts Moment in 2006

4

At the 2008 Paralympic Games in Beijing, the UK’s David Weir won the gold medal in the men’s 800m T54 race ahead of Aus tralian Fearnley The International Paralympic Committee (IPC) then ordered a rerun after discovering a lane violation – bu t Fearnley and the Aus tralian au thorities wrote to the IPC asking that, in the spirit of spor tsmanship, the rerun be cancelled and the medals reins tated

5

During a 2003 Tes t in Hamilton, Wales’s Colin Char vis made a dar t for the tr

All Blacks back row Jerr y Collins knocked him ou t cold Umaga saw the seriousness of the situation and left his place in the game to run to Char vis’s aid, removing his gum shield and placing him in the recover y position Umaga received the Pierre de Couber tin medal in honour of his spor tsmanship

6

J a c k N i c k l a u s 1 9 6 9

R y d e r C u p, g o l f

The Ryder Cup was all tied as the final pair, Nicklaus and Britain’s Tony Jacklin, teed off on the 18th at Royal Birkdale With Jacklin’s ball two feet from the hole, Nicklaus sank a par pu tt from four feet before picking up Jacklin’s marker, conceding the pu tt needed for the firs t ever draw in the Ryder Cup He said to Jacklin: “I don’ t think you would have missed that, Tony, bu t I didn’ t want to give you the chance ”

During an FA Cup fifth-round match at Highbur y, a United player kicked the ball ou t for an injur y After the res tar t, rather than leaving the ball for the opposition to collec t, Arsenal s triker Kanu raced down the field and squared for Marc Overmars to score the winner Wenger remarkably offered a rematch to United’s Steve Bruce and the FA agreed Arsenal won by the same 2-1 scoreline

In his third round match agains t Fernando Verdasco, Roddick had a match point with the Spaniard on his second ser ve The linesman called it ou t, giving the American top seed vic tor y – bu t Roddick highlighted the mark on the clay w hich proved that the ser ve had in fac t landed jus t in, and the call was reversed Verdasco went on to win the match and Roddick was eliminated from the competition

10

During the 1500m final in the 1956 National Championship in Melbourne, Ron Clarke tripped and fell Fellow runner John Landy s topped and ran back to check if his opponent was OK w hile the res t of the runners continued on After helping Clarke to s tand up and rejoin the race, Landy remarkably went on to catch the leaders and win the race with ease

On Chris tmas day, English sailor Goss received a mayday aler t that Frenchman Raphaël Dinelli’s yacht had been wrecked in a s torm in the Sou thern Ocean Goss immediately abandoned his course in the race and set off through hurricane winds to rescue his competitor He located him with the aid of the Aus tralian Air Force and was awarded the Légion d’Honneur by France

As much as we enjoy compiling odds every day, we also love a bit of down time after the last race, so we’ve created our own – and we think the first – Flat and Jump Trainer Trumps They are great for playing with friends or getting the next generation up to speed on this great game of horseracing we all love so much. Entry into the Fitzdares Trumps was loosely based on last season’s Trainers Championship, with a few jokers (ho ho) thrown in!

C E R E B R A L GY M

In the early to mid-Noughties, Ben Goldsmith hosted regular backgammon tournaments with great flair An exotic melange of players would enter It was at Drones Club in 2005 that we got to know James Vogl James was a good poker player but an even better backgammon player, and he was soon to master rummy

We have followed James’s journey from the baize to backgammon board to hedge funds and now as founder of Cerebral Gym, which launched in fabulous fashion in May Fitzdares believes in working the mind –‘Health is wealth’ is a gospel we want to spread Ours is a sector that must promote mathematics, numeracy, probability. It is beholden on us to do so After all, odds are fractions, decimals, percentages The compilation of these odds is a skill and carries a tradition and heritage that we are custodians of So we believe wholeheartedely in Cerebral Gym and are pleased to give you here a sense of the fun to be had exercising the mind

R I P X - 2 2 ( PAU L M A G R I E L)

1. Two prisoners are told they will be separated and each asked to flip a coin Before they are separated they formulate a strategy to guess what the other one flipped What is their best strategy, and what is the chance both guess correctly?

2. Same question as No 1, but the two prisoners have never met or communicated with each other They do not know in advance they will be separated and asked to guess each other’s flip Does this change the answer?

3. You play single zero roulette (as Paul often did), and can only bet on red or black You must flat bet the same amount each spin You can play for as long or short as you want If you stop when you are losing, the casino gives you half your money back What is your best strategy?

4 . Same situation as in No 3, only you start with 100,000 but have no limit to your betting amount What is your best strategy?

5. One morning, at sunrise, a monk began to climb a mountain, on a narrow path that wound around it He climbed at varying rates of speed and stopped from time to time to rest or eat At sunset he reached the top, where there was a temple, and remained there to meditate for several days Then, at sunrise, he started down on the same path again, walking at varying rates of speed, though his average speed of descent was somewhat greater than his average speed of ascent Show that there is a spot along the path that he will occupy on both trips at exactly the same time of day.

6 . You are given a regular deck of 52 playing cards, randomly shuffled In the pile you are given, 13 cards are face-up and the rest are face-down The room is dark so you can’t determine whether a card is face-up or face-down You take cards off your original deck one by one to create a new pile How many cards must you take off so that you are 100 per cent certain the new pile has more face-down than face-up?

James Vogl

Sadly my good friend, the backgammon legend Paul Magriel (also known as X-22), passed away in March. Not only did he write the most famous backgammon book of all time, simply titled “Backgammon”, but he was also incredible at sharing all this knowledge with everyone he encountered The last time I saw him was in Vegas last year, and as I was walking off he handed me a copy of his “X-22 genius quiz” Sadly, I never got to see him again and hence don’t have the answers for the questions to the right of the page Maybe you could help me out?

Lady, brunt of Churchill’s jokes (5)

7. You have a bag with five balls: three black and two white You are permitted to draw one ball at a time without replacement Each time you draw a white ball you receive a dollar When you draw a black ball you must pay a dollar You can stop drawing any time after the first ball Would you want to play this game? Answers by email to rory@fitzdares.com

circuit (8)

21 Comes before final and otics (4) 22 Beckham’s rumoured fling (4) 24 ‘Goal!’ (2005) protagonis t (5) 27 Risk-taking businessman (12)

28 Five-line poem (5) 29 2014 Derby

Fitzdares broker’s nickname, Jaws (call us to find ou t!) (7)

Hampshire-based England middle order batsman (5)

Spanish, ex-Arsenal midfielder (7)

tru th to power (5) 25 Type of large marine mammal (4) 26 Music awards (4)

James Vogl is a well-known mind gymnast and the founder of cerebralgym.com