Fitzdares Times | issue 19 by Fitzdares

T H E W O R L D ’ S F I N E S T B O O K M A K E R , TA K I N G B E T S S I N C E 1 8 8 2 • N I N E T E E N T H E D I T I O N , C H R I S T M A S 2 0 2 3 • S T R I C T LY N O U N D E R 2 1 s

UP IN THE AIR Rugby’s cash vs publicity dilemma

CIRCUS RING? The weird world of crossover boxing

ROGUE STATES The US election is on a knife-edge

TORN TINSEL Dark days for the big studios

BY MARK POUGATCH

BY STEVE BUNCE

BY CARLA SUBIRANA

BY JOE HODGSON

Russ Cook is running the entire length of Africa – and, he tells Lola Katz Roberts, it’s even more demanding and chaotic than you’d imagine…

HILE YOU’RE EATING, sleeping, working, meeting up with friends and living your life, somewhere in Africa’s vast midst, Russ Cook is running. He has been running ultramarathons for over 200 days – in the heat, in the rain, in the dark – and he won’t stop until he reaches the northernmost tip of Cape Angela in Tunisia. His face has grown gaunt and lean, his ginger beard now swamping his shrinking features. But he will not allow himself to contemplate failure, for the simple reason that it would require him to get on a plane and ﬂy home. He will use his own two legs and, as he puts it, “run the length of Africa or die trying”.

“There was no doubt in my mind that I could do it,” he says. “I didn’t know what was coming. But what I did know in my heart, my mind and my soul that there was no way I’d be giving up.” He hopes to become the first person to run the length of Africa – almost 15,000km across 16 countries, 360 marathons in 250 days – and aims to finish before Christmas. We caught up with him on day 194 from a sweltering hotel room in Nigeria. “It’s about 40 degrees and I’m sweating my nuts off,” he says. “I’ve eaten nothing but biscuits for like three weeks straight. So, still got a few hills to climb.” A sentence like this pretty much sums up his mentality. Insurmountable problems for most are simply hills to

climb for the man from Worthing who calls himself ‘Hardest Geezer’. Of course, the mission hasn’t been plain sailing. Cook and his team have been robbed at gunpoint and have suﬀered from the bureaucratic grind of visa issues and health scares – including a ﬂirtation with kidney failure. “It’s an interesting one when someone sticks a gun in your face. My initial reaction was just to try and control

‘We’re out here, boys and girls, and when a gun gets pointed in your face that’s a bit of a get real moment.’

the moment. I remember vividly the guy cracking open the door and the gun coming up, and I just tried to start a dialogue and delay his action as much as possible. My thoughts were just about damage limitation: try to keep everyone safe and try to keep as much of our stuff. “That was the first real disaster we’d had, and that was a bit of a moment where I thought, ‘This ain’t the seaside town of Worthing any more.’ We are out here, boys and girls, and when a gun gets pointed in your face that’s a bit of a get real moment.” In a world of gimmicky influencers, Cook is its antithesis. What he’s doing is extremely hard, and he’s not afraid to share that with his audience. For context, one →

Russ Cook is attempting to run the entire length of Africa in 250 days

→ recent YouTube video is entitled: “Was it even a proper day’s graft if you didn’t have poo dribbling down your leg?” Cook has even continued to run marathon distances while suffering with severe food poisoning. “I can’t lie: the first time I was weeing blood I was a bit like, ‘That’s actually red coming out of my willy, that’s a bit mad.’ I’m no scientist, but I knew it wasn’t good. It was concerning, but I just thought, ‘OK, let’s see where this road goes. I guess I’ll just carry on stomping and hope for the best.’ “I got food poisoning badly and I was delirious on about day 24. It was the first day where I thought, ‘I cannot conceive of how I’m going to be able to run.’ There were about three days where I couldn’t eat – I couldn’t keep anything down and I was just continuing to run marathons. In truth there have been moments where I’ve thought my body is at breaking point; little niggles that I’ve thought have the potential to develop into something catastrophic. But I honestly believe God is on my side with this one. Despite demonstrating copious reserves of mental fortitude, Cook still believes there

WELCOME TO 24/7 Thank you for continuing to be a cheerleader for Fitzdares. We now have a clear mission – to continue to build personal relationships with our members, as our competitors race towards automation. We’ve expanded our broking team to take your calls and texts 24/7 (but they get a break on Xmas Day and Eve) and doubled our compliance team to help manage expectations in the ever-changing landscape. On top of that, we launched The Racing App last month, to give racing fans a genuine alternative to the status quo. I think you’ll find your new home for racing content. Every live race and replay can be seen on the app, as well as access to cuttingedge data. It’s a game changer. Have a happy Christmas & New Year!

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‘One thing I’ve learnt is I’m both immensely powerful and pathetically weak in almost equal measure.’ is room for more. “I think one thing I’ve learnt is I’m both immensely powerful and pathetically weak in almost equal measure. When you take on something like this, you are forced to hold yourself up to the flame, and a lot of the times you see where you’re not so good, where things have gone wrong. “One of the things I’ve learned about myself is how leadership is and how difficult it is to be a good leader. Before this I would have thought it’s simply a matter of being strong, showing direction and leading by example. Turns out it’s a lot more complicated than that. To be a great leader you’ve got to be so well balanced as an individual, and obviously I’m a bit tapped in the head so it’s a bit difficult!”

HE DESIRE TO PROVE himself – to leave a permanent mark on the African tarmac – is evidently still burning strong, but when thoughts turn to what’s next, there is perhaps the sense Cook has pushed himself as far as he can go (at least for now). “You’re so motivated to tunnel vision on one particular goal for such a long time that when you achieve it, you do kind of think, ‘What do I do with myself?’ That loss of a sense of purpose is really hard to deal with. I’m entering a new stage of life. I’ve a partner and it’s a pretty serious relationship, and I feel like I’m gaining a lot more responsibility. But I’m excited to come back, to explore what options are on the table for me in my career and personal life, and just be there and be present to enjoy things. Cook only brieﬂy allows himself to contemplate what he might do when it’s all over. “I think immediately post-ﬁnish line I’ll probably just break into a nice steady two-step. Hopefully someone will pass me a strawberry daiquiri, followed by at least two and a half pints of beer. I’ll probably just get a bit drunk, make a bit of a tit of myself, sing a bit and then just hold my girlfriend’s hand and just pass out somewhere on the beach in Tunisia. Oh, and I’d love to eat a pizza as well, a proper good cheesy, garlicky, tomato pizza would be fantastic…”

Just when it seems he is drifting away into that future moment, he regains his composure. “I think I knew this before I started, but it’s really been hammered home by this experience, there’s always a light at the end of the tunnel. No one said this would be easy, but I know if I just keep going long enough, that light will show itself to me, even if it’s just for a moment. So that’s what I’m striving for right now. “Whether I’ve been out running and thought, ‘There’s just no way I can make this,’ whether we’ve just been robbed, or I’ve

got really ill and I’ve got pretty dark and not known where I’m going – just keeping on going and ﬁnding a way to show up tomorrow no matter what state you’re in, and just giving it everything you’ve got. For me, if you do that, things have a way of sorting themselves out.” n Russ Cook is completing the challenge to

support the Running Charity and WaterAid. He has raised £85,000 of his £100K target. To support him and donate to his mission, head to givestar.io/gs/PROJECTAFRICA

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Raindance

04 SPEAKER’S CORNER Steve Bunce

CROSSING STREAMS

HERE WAS A BEAR, AN OCTOPUS and man built like a mountain in the first versions of crossover boxing. Now there is a soft-drink impresario, influencers, nude sensations and survivors of television’s latest reality shows. The modern crossover boxers need just one ingredient to make it in the boxing world: a big social media presence. Crossover boxing truly arrived late in 2019 on one glorious night in Los Angeles. The Staples Center was full, there was a WBO super-middleweight title fight involving Billy Joe Saunders on the undercard, but the main event was between two YouTube influencer sensations, Logan Paul and KSI. They were novices, keen and raw as boxers but slick and polished in their chosen field. They also shared close to 50 million followers across social media at the time. The ref on the night was Jack Reiss, who a few months earlier had been the third man in the same ring when Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder fought their first fight. Paul and KSI fought to a lively standstill; KSI got the wafer-thin decision. They forged a friendship and are now partners in Prime, the drink. Paul vs KSI was big; the Saunders world title fight was ignored. Saunders was not bothered – he was well paid. The fight sent a message to every single influencer, YouTuber and social media darling: there is money in the boxing ring. The Paul and KSI fight never damaged or threatened boxing, but inside the ancient sport there was fear and outrage. That fear has not vanished, nor has the assumption – a delusion, by the way – that somehow a nude OnlyFans princess is taking money out of a licensed boxer’s pocket. It is a myth – different markets. Now the crossover business is getting serious and organised. Misfits is the untouchable (right now) promotional company, and every single part of their business resembles a legitimate boxing promotional company. Misfits has a fiveyear deal with DAZN, and their recent KSI and Tommy Fury fight was watched by a capacity crowd of 20,000 at the Manchester Arena. The DAZN pay-per-view numbers were described on the night as “spectacular”. Fury is possibly the ultimate crossover boxer, having turned professional after success on Love Island and then crossing over from the fully legitimate world of licensed and sanctioned fights to Misfits. Fury was 9-0 in the ring before his KSI adventure; Fury won a tight, tight decision and made millions. Without Love Island and the Fury name, he would be fighting at York Hall in his 10th fight and walking away with less than ten grand. Traditional boxing has lost Tommy but – and it might sound harsh – it is not boxing’s loss.

Ex-Love Islander Tommy Fury took on YouTuber Jake Paul earlier this year

In his wake, dozens of angry pros have challenged Tommy to fights he would lose and fights that he would also be mad to take. He has a massive rematch with either KSI or Jake Paul, the oddly accomplished brother of Logan. In Saudi Arabia earlier this year, Paul floored Fury but lost a split decision. KSI is one of the co-founders of Misfits, which has lifted enough of boxing’s essential rules and regulations and added a few of its own. Fury and his new gang of crossover stars are making good money twirling their fists in 50-50 fights between novices. They have no plans ever to leave the glittering lights of their business and gatecrash the other boxing world. Nobody in boxing ever took less money to improve his image. At the sold-out show in Manchester, boxing promoter Eddie Hearn was ringside. He was impressed with the event and stunned that every single seat was full for every fight. “We can learn from them,” said Hearn.

O Without Love Island and the Fury name, Tommy would be fighting at York Hall in his 10th fight and walking away with less than ten grand.

DD, CRAZY AND FREAK FIGHTS are nothing new, however. Chuck Wepner, the original Rocky, lost a world heavyweight title to Muhammad Ali in 1975 and a couple of years later was matched with a fighting bear called Victor. It was a great fight and there was a rematch. There was controversy in the second fight when it was discovered that the new ‘Victor’ was a ringer; Wepner took a beating. “That bear had a better jab than Ali,” Wepner never said. In 1976 in Tokyo, Ali was matched with wrestler and mixed martial arts icon Antonio Inoki over 15 rounds. Ali threw six punches and Inoki, a giant lump of cunning and muscle, spent every second of the fight crawling across the canvas. It was a dreadful spectacle and Ali ended up in hospital with blood clots in his legs from the kicks. And the octopus? Well, a man called Two-Ton Tony Galento once wrestled the sea beast in a giant water tank in Atlantic City. It was a publicity stunt for one of his fights. Galento won, but he had an advantage – the octopus was already dead. The crossover fighters are not here to take over – trust me. They are very happy in their madly lucrative lane. They really don’t need us over here in the land of traditional boxing. The truth is that we might just need them. n Steve Bunce is a boxing pundit and presenter on BBC Five Live and BoxNation

and writes about the sport for The Independent.

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06 Jeff Randall relives a day at Taunton when everything clicked for him

HOW A BLUE BIKINI MADE MY DAY

N HIS SOULFUL BALLAD ‘ DAYS LIKE THIS ’ , the great Van Morrison sings of those rare but glorious times “when everything falls into place like the flick of a switch”. Regular race-goers, long-suffering owners and battle-hardened punters know through bitter experience that it’s unwise to bank on such an outcome at the racetrack. Racing’s gods, like their sporting relatives, golf ’s deities, enjoy punishing presumption. They toy with our emotions in many ways: the last-fence faller, the disqualified winner, the hapless jockey who takes the wrong course. Most of us who love horse racing beyond rational explanation have been there in one way or another and, in my case, still wake up in a sweat over the agonising photo finish that blew out leg four of a stonking yankee. That said, if you have been in this game long enough (I first went racing in the late 1960s), you know also that, once in a while, perhaps when you are least expecting it, the Turf’s celestial forces relent and grant devotees a brief encounter with delicious good fortune. This happened to me a few months ago on an otherwise unremarkable day at an unfashionable venue. It was a cold but sunny February morning when I stepped off the train at Taunton and caught a taxi to the local racecourse. The last time I had been there, Paul Kelleway, Gay’s father, was riding for Fred Winter. About 50 years had passed since then. En route I wondered what had changed: the answer, not much. Opened in 1927, Taunton’s appeal is its warm welcome in a traditional, unpretentious, rural setting.

I often go racing on my own. It allows me to concentrate on devising a betting strategy, including a stake plan and then watch all the action undistracted by idle chitchat. Over a glass or two of Rhône red before lunch, I decided to follow a trio of “hot trainers”, those with at least three winners and a strike rate of 20 per cent or better in the past month: Fergal O’Brien, Paul Nicholls and Gary Moore. I prefer to bet online, well before racing starts, to benefit from bookmakers’ best-odds-guaranteed. This also prevents last-minute changes of mind, which almost always work out badly. But when I’m at the racecourse I invariably indulge in a Tote placepot and a few exactas. The main restaurant at Taunton is small but cosy. By the time the appetiser arrived, I was “fully invested” and about to drain glass number three. My confidence grew when I heard that Richard Hoiles, a friend, was calling them home. What could possibly go wrong? Race one, a novices’ hurdle, went to plan. Hometown Hero, trained by Nicholls, pinged out like a one-bend greyhound, pinched six lengths at the start and was never headed. I was on at 6/4; time for a vin rouge top-up. Race two, a handicap hurdle, looked fiendishly difficult; I left it alone and was right to do so. It was won by a 40/1 “no-hoper”, but Robert Walford’s Amelia’s Dance finished second and kept me in the placepot. Nicholls had one in the third, Milan Bridge, but it seemed too short. I passed again and was rewarded. The Ditcheat chaser jumped poorly and was nowhere. Thanks to David Pipe’s Neon Moon, my placepot stayed alive. Race four, a mares’ novices hurdle, brought my banker of the day, Hidden Beauty, a Fergal O’Brien hotpot. I was on at

evens for double stakes and put it in a reverse exacta with Gary Moore’s Parikarma, a 13/2 shot. I was disappointed when Parikarma beat Hidden Beauty by one length, but my irritation soon turned to delight when the exacta paid 14/1. This produced another tidy profit and the placepot marched on. By now I was feeling pleased with myself. At the races this is a dangerous condition. Behind hubris lurks nemesis. However, resisting the temptation to steam in to race five, I ordered one more glass of château average and cheered as my placepot selection finished second. Race six was set up as if with in me mind. O’Brien had a 20/1 shot, Blue Bikini. Playing with the layers’ money, I doubled down on my earlier bet and paired it in a reverse exacta with the 7/4 favourite, Nicholls’ Pleasant Man. Bosh! They came home first and second in that order. What’s more, I landed the placepot. The exacta returned freakishly good odds, 96/1, and the placepot dividend was £256. When the Tote assistant told me I would have to wait because her desk did not have enough cash to pay me, I asked her to say it again, so good did it sound. I skipped the last for an early train home, occasionally checking my pocket-filling bankroll and bulging online account to make sure I wasn’t dreaming. That evening, over a peaty whisky and several replays of the Taunton card on Racing TV, I thanked my lucky stars. Everything had fallen into place like the flick of a switch. If only all trips to the races could be Days Like This. n Jeff Randall is chairman of Woburn Partners, a public-relations

company. His fee was donated to the Injured Jockeys Fund.

DIARY Finding time to relax during the biggest tournament of the

by Nathan Aspinall

year is one of the hardest things about playing at the World Championships. I spend a lot of time with Chris Dobey; he’s a great mate of mine. If I’ve got an evening match, we might go and play a few frames of pool in the day or I’ll pester someone to get a round of golf in. Away from sports, I love a cheeky Nandos. Medium butterﬂy chicken, with coleslaw and peri peri fries and a hot quarter chicken on the side is my go-to. But there’s nothing quite like the Ally Pally. It’s the big one, the one that everyone wants to win. The one where a good two and a half weeks can change your life. It’s the reason we all picked up a set of darts in the ﬁrst place – to one day have a chance of becoming world champion.

On to match day and preparation is pivotal – “fail to prepare”

Nothing else even comes close to the atmosphere. Obviously the beers, particularly during the evening session, play a massive part in that, but there’s just an incredible feelgood factor reverberating around the venue. People get dressed up, they’re enjoying the festivities, and ultimately they’re there to have a seriously good time. The fans pay their money and it’s my job – along with the rest of the players – to put on a proper show for them. I’ll up my practice hours leading into the Worlds. This year I skipped the Players’ Championships in Minehead. “Get four weeks of solid, thorough practice, Nath,” I thought. So often I’ve found that, because the schedule is so compressed, I’m always travelling from one tournament to the next, so I never get the chance to sit down and take stock when things aren’t going my way. It’s diﬀerent this year.

I’ve teamed up with Michael Smith (‘Bully Boy’) as a practice partner, another great friend of mine (and the reigning world champion). Most days, however, I do what most normal parents do, starting with dropping my little girl oﬀ at school. Then I make the one-hour drive to see Bully Boy. We

chuck treble 20s for about two hours before it gets serious. Anyone with a PDC card can hit 140s and 180s for fun – it’s the finishing where we make it pay. After chatting away for a while and taking the piss out of someone (usually Chris Dobey), we’ll get into the nitty gritty. Our finishing this year has been absolutely crap, so that’s the meat of it these days. We’ll play a game where we get nine darts between us to check out 121. Once that’s done we go to 122, 123, 124, all the way up to 170. If we miss, we go back to the start. It’s tough but it’s a great drill for working on our finishing.

The walk-on song is blasting out the speakers and there are 5,000 drunk fans screaming your name.

and all that. I’m up at 8am, try to keep some breakfast down (which is a struggle as the butterflies kick in), do a bit of media and head to the venue a good three hours before my match. I’m then straight to the practice boards to get my eye in. It’s go time, and I’ll say: “Right, Nath, let’s have a good 40-minute spell here.” A bad 40 minutes and I’m going home. The walk-on song is blasting out the speakers and there are 5,000 drunk fans screaming your name. Time to bring your best. Once that first maximum goes in or I get my first leg on the board, it just becomes a game of darts. The shackles are off and I’m able to enjoy it.

Winning the Worlds would mean everything. I’m a Matchplay champion, one of just six major tournaments on the calendar, but I’d swap that for a place in the ﬁnal if you oﬀered it to me right now. If I can win it, I’d imagine the celebrations would be suitably big. We’d throw a huge party and I’d get absolutely steaming with all my closest friends and family… there’d be a lot of white wine, it’s fair to say! It would be pretty raucous – let’s hope we can see it for real in a few weeks’ time… n Nathan Aspinall is a darts major champion and a Fitzdares ambassador.

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10 Henry Beesley rues that single match point

FOR WHAT IT’S WORTH, I KNEW THAT I WAS NEVER GOING TO BE A PROFESSIONAL TENNIS PLAYER. WAS TALENTED. Or at least I was told I was by the LTA’s National Talent ID programme when I was in my early teens, and by various coaches over the years. But I’m happy to admit I lacked the dedication or love for the game that was required to ‘make it’. I played tennis ﬁrst and foremost because I was good at it, but also I loved competing. Without regurgitating cringe-worthy clichés, pressure is a privilege, and I enjoyed those high-octane moments in a close match.

Did I enjoy the training? The strength and conditioning (of which I never did enough, by the way)? The endless hours in the car travelling for training or competitions? Or the hanging around at tournaments waiting for my match? A ﬁrm no to all the above. But that feeling of coming out on the right side of a close match and picking up a trophy was irreplaceable. I remember meeting Roger Draper, the CEO of the LTA at the time, at the Lincolnshire Tennis Awards in the early 2010s. I’d won the Outstanding Achievement Award for representing Great Britain at the now-defunct Nike Junior Tour International Masters in the Bahamas earlier that year. Even then, as a 12-year-old, my peers were jetting oﬀ to the other side of the world to compete in another event on the junior international circuit. I was heading back to school the following week. School is not really a concept that most of today’s superstars are familiar with. ‘Home schooling’ or ‘distance learning’ was put to me when I was considering the prospect of joining a full-time tennis academy in my early teens. You’d play tennis for four hours a day, do strength and conditioning for an hour and spend any other time in ‘school’. Frankly, I couldn’t think of anything worse. Back to my encounter with Roger Draper – I asked him why if there were so many aspiring tennis players at my age

but so few break into the world’s top 1,000, let alone make an actual living out of the sport, how on earth do you do it? I’ll always remember him saying that firstly you needed to be lucky. And secondly you’d need a spare £250,000 to invest in the ‘dream’. And that was nearly 15 years ago. 250 grand?! Firstly, there wasn’t a spare quarter of a million pounds stuffed down the back of the sofa in my parents’ house, but also you could do so much with that money, I thought. It’s no secret that tennis is one of the most expensive sports you can play, particularly if you want to compete at the top table, but that seemed an eye-watering sum for a pipedream that would probably amount to nothing. There are exceptions who do make it, of course – which brings me to a match that lives longer in the memory than the other 1000 or so tennis matches I’ve played in my life. It’s the semi-finals of a 16-and-under regional tournament and I’m the top seed. Of course, I’m expected to win the event. I’ve recently reached number six in the country for my age group and have gone through the draw with relative ease up to this point. Waiting for me is a 13-year-old fellow left-hander by the name of Jack Draper (yes, the son of Roger). I’d heard he was a good player – a very good player, in fact – so I wasn’t taking him lightly. On game day we’re the first round of matches on. I’ve never been a particularly early riser and would always prefer to play later in the day. I arrive at the venue about an hour before my match, and the ball feels good off the strings as I warm up with my coach who has come to watch the match. I’m slow out of the blocks (not for the first time) and concede an early break of serve. It’s immediately evident that I’m going to have to play well to come through this. About half an hour later, I sit down at the changeover, hav-

ing lost the first set. I’ve played well on the whole but paid the penalty for a sloppy break of serve early on. The second set is a role reversal. I get my nose in front early and then hold serve to move into a 5-2 lead. A timely second break of serve levels things up at one set each. On to a 10point match tie-break to decide things in the third set (first to 10 points, you must win by two clear points). It’s always a lottery playing such a short format so I have in my mind that the first six points are the most important. It’s tight. It’s cagey. Neither of us is prepared to lose. After another lung-busting rally, I take a 9-8 lead. Match point. On my serve. I’m nervous, naturally – this is a match I’m expected to win and I’m now just one point away from getting out of jail and heading into the final. I can’t really remember what happened next. But in the blink of an eye I was 10-9 behind, returning serve and one point away from losing. Jack sealed it with an ace out wide. If only I’d have done that, I thought. I’ve never been a particularly good loser, but this one felt worse. On balance, I was the better player. If only I’d started better. If only I’d served better on that match point. Playing tennis at a high level, you get used to losing. You have to. It isn’t a sport where you can expect to win every match. Almost a decade on, our careers have gone slightly different ways. One of us took a set off Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon, represented Great Britain at the Davis Cup and is in the world’s top 60. The other is the editor of this publication! I fully expect Jack to go on and break the world’s top 10 one day. Can he win a Grand Slam? He’s certainly good enough to. It would have been nice to say I’d beaten a Grand Slam champ, I guess. Let’s see what happens… n Henry Beesley is Editor of The Fitzdares Times.

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ALL THAT GLISTERS Oscars season gives Hollywood a welcome chance to gloss over its many headaches, says Joe Hodgson

now being so extraordinarily rich they can retreat to their own garish fantasy world for the rest of their lives. And other, leaner contenders could well emerge to challenge the race leaders. Yorgos Lanthimos, for example, has become an unlikely Academy Awards presence in recent years; and his latest curio – the Emma Stone-led Poor Things – dazzled critics before winning the prestigious Golden Lion prize at Venice in September. Expect Stone to also be a key part in the Best Actress race once again, alongside Killers of the Flower Moon’s tranquil linchpin, Lily Gladstone. Bradley Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein

HERE’S AN OLD quip about Hollywood which states that once you strip away the phoney tinsel, you’ll find the real tinsel underneath. And in a year when a film about a toy doll managed to generate more than $1 billion, it is clear that making movies is an industry like no other. But as we approach Christmas, bring the decorations down from the loft and examine the state of our own tinsel, I can’t help wondering: just how shiny and fulsome is that Tinseltown tinsel right now? After surviving the pandemic shutdowns, and with the summer’s Barbenheimer phenomenon swelling coffers to a handsome level, it may seem like the overall state of cinema is similarly pumped full of optimism and Kenergy. But on closer inspection, the sparkle on some garlands appears to be fading. Firstly, there is the issue of

streaming services; and the grim, encroaching reality that they are, on the whole, an unnavigable ﬁnancial quagmire. Now that they have been introduced, however, it is very diﬃcult for movie studios to return to the old ways – the toothpaste is out of the tube, and in attempting to get it back in they have only succeeded in smearing it all over the place. This muddle has also impacted the recent writers’ strike in Hollywood, where one of the key demands from streaming service platforms was a

OSCARSODDS Emma Stone could be in line for another statuette for her turn in Poor Things

The toothpaste is out of the tube, and in attempting to get it back in they have only succeeded in smearing it all over the place.

greater share of the profits. The problem here being that, in most cases, there aren’t any. There is also concern over the sharply declining interest in comicbook movies, a genre that has underpinned the industry for 15 years or so. But when every minor franchise character has been explored in a prequel, a sequel, a threequel, a 10episode spin-off TV series and a multiverse of infinite minor mutations, it’s not hard to see why people are starting to look elsewhere for their entertainment. Even the characters that I’ve clearly just made up, such as Professor Stupid, the Fish Wife, and Toaster Boy, have all got their own origin-story films in development. People in Hollywood are now nervously asking the question: what comes next? What on earth fills the void? As they have done successfully in the

past, the Oscars will seek to provide a ﬂashy distraction from these issues – attempt to cover the phoney tinsel and the real tinsel beneath with, well, yet another layer of glistening tinsel. The presence of some big stars and big directors on big red carpets will strive to keep the money-making machine ticking over. The 96th Academy Awards are set to take place in Los Angeles on 10 March 2024, and the big prizes may well be contested between Christopher Nolan’s sprawling Oppenheimer and Martin Scorsese’s even sprawlinger

Best Picture Oppenheimer 5/4 Killers of the Flower Moon 7/2 Poor Things 6/1 American Fiction 8/1 Best Director Christopher Nolan 8/11 Martin Scorsese 2/1 Yorgos Lanthimos 4/1 Celine Song 10/1 Best Actor Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) 5/6

biopic Maestro is likely to land nominations in all major categories, and literary adaptation American Fiction could finally see Jeffrey Wright make the shortlist in the Best Actor hunt; though Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) and Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) will be lying in wait. Martin Scorsese (81) might not be the only octogenarian going up for the big prizes. Three-time Best Director nominee Ridley Scott (86) will also be hoping to enter the fray with his own cinematic heavyweight, the rambunctious historical drama Napoleon. With its combination of unexpected humour and thrilling, expansive battle sequences, many are labelling the film the Ultimate Dad Movie. Award nominations are most likely to come in the form of Best Actor for Joaquin Phoenix, as the titular ruler, and Best Actress for British star Vanessa Kirby as his first wife, Joséphine.

Bradley Cooper (Maestro) 3/1 Leonardo DiCaprio (KotFM) 11/4

As for Scott, he has professed a lack

Colman Domingo (Rustin) 11/4

of interest in pursuing Oscar glory, and has shown an unwillingness to sugar his words in interviews. (Historians questioning the historical accuracy of his latest ﬁlm were given a very blunt but clear, expletive-laced piece of direction in return.) Indeed, negotiating the quest for Oscars glory can be complex; the battles and political machinations oﬀ the screen are sometimes as brutal as they are on it, and a near-Napoleonic grasp of strategy is often necessary to attain success. And failure to play the game can result in you being mercilessly exiled. So, please, when you’re enjoying your yuletide festivities, spare a thought for those poor folks in Hollywood and the struggles they endure. Because their tinsel is for life, not just for Christmas. n

Best Actress Emma Stone (Poor Things) 6/4 Lily Gladstone (KotFM) 2/1 Carey Mulligan (Maestro) 5/2 Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple) 7/2 Phone or Live Chat for latest prices

Killers of the Flower Moon. One would expect the red button of victory to be pressed in favour of Oppenheimer, given that it has, like its summer sibling Barbie, generated takings in the region of $1 billion. Nolan will also be a fairly strong favourite for Best Director too. But is this bloated, lumbering pair of cinematic behemoths equipped for such a long race? And whither the aforementioned Barbie? Well, I guess the makers of Barbie will just have to make do with the consolation prize of

Joe Hodgson is a regular contributor to

The Fitzdares Times in print and online.

T he L egendary ry Ele ephan t Ha ir B angle

1 0 4 - 1 0 6 F u l h a m R o a d, L o n d o n, S W 3 PAT R I C K M AV R O S .C O M

14 Like many football fans, Lola Katz Roberts has endured the turbulence of many a deadline day as a mere observer. But now, she says, fans are exerting their own influence on clubs’ big-money moves

MOVING TARGETS T’S THE SECOND WEEK of January. The Christmas tree lies browning outside on the pavement, the left-over cheese from Boxing Day is starting to smell and the ﬂoor is still sticky from that bottle of champagne you dropped on New Year’s Eve. You open your phone and idly scroll through X (née Twitter – and there it is. That coveted South American midﬁelder whose name ends in ‘inho’, the one you’ve watched endless highlights reels of, the one you’ve been picturing in the middle of the park since

those football-parched days in the summer – has agreed a deal to join your team. You frantically refresh your feed, ask your friends, check the source. News? No chance. You ﬂick on Sky Sports transfer centre, but Dharmesh Sheth is just making small-talk with an eclectic panel of so-called experts: a Love Islander turned pundit, an ex-pro burdened by banality and an oldschool former manager who still thinks Messi couldn’t hack it on a rainy Tuesday night at Stoke. Back on Twitter, it’s eerily

Moises Caicedo on terra firma after his helicopter ride

quiet. Your hopes are fading. Then you realise perhaps what you already knew but were too afraid to admit: the so-called ‘ITK’ (in the know) news source is just a boxer-shorts-sporting loner from rural Leicestershire, stirring up the fanbase in between bites from a boneless banquet. You feel empty, betrayed, enraged. You turn to the group chat. Not a peep. You open Twitter and begin to scroll again. Sound like you? You’re not alone.

So, here’s the question: what is it about today’s football landscape that turns apparently rational adults into hotel-loitering, planetracking, Twitter-refreshing, transfer-craving lunatics? Back in the day (I’m reliably told) there was Ceefax, then there was the BBC gossip column, then a strange period in the mid-2000s on internet chat boards with some particularly curt ‘eds’ posing as insiders and brutally dismissing humble pleas for information. Hot on their heels were the halcyon days when we waited with bated breath for Jim White and his roving crew of reporters to deliver actual breaking news with platinum smiles, and Harry Redknapp’s cheery face framed in a car window. The point is, it used to be hard to get hold of information. Until along came Fabrizio Romano and his three

little words that changed everything: “Here we go!” Nothing can get a football fan’s pulse racing quite like Fabrizio’s trusty catchphrase. In his Italian-accented English, he enthusiastically delivers minuteby-minute updates on transfers across Europe, and he knows his onions. But as we’ve grown greedy, fatted on the bounty of his insider knowledge, an insatiable appetite for more has grown. Twitter has risen to meet the demands of a transfer-hungry football public and a new

You feel empty, betrayed, enraged. You turn to the group chat. Not a peep. You open Twitter and begin to scroll again. generation of ‘ITKs’ have spawned in Fabrizio’s image – except their access to sources is more “my sister’s hairdresser’s boyfriend says there’s going to be a massive lasagne on the pitch at Wembley” and less actually knowing stuﬀ. In 2015 the Mirror published “7 easy steps to becoming a ‘must follow’ ITK transfer rumours account”, empowering every Tom, Dick and Harry to do just that. The subsequent proximity of ‘knowledge’, the deluge of sources

and information, has generated something approaching mania. Put simply, it’s hard not to believe someone if they say something is definitely happening. If you’re told a player has reached an agreement to join your club – and the tweet is suitably decorated with handshake emojis and sirens – you are going to (at least momentarily) believe they are. Take Indykalia news. A flagbearer of Twitter’s ITK army who claims to have bribed top transfer sources in exchange for free fried chicken – from KFC, where he works when he’s not keeping his 400,000 Twitter followers up to date on the latest comings and goings. He hedges his bets on certainty and his offerings range from plausible to downright strange. However, if you say enough things are happening, eventually one of them will happen and you’ll have earned an audience of fans who are convinced you know something.

Last summer Moises Caicedo was

a man in demand. The boy from Santo Domingo was at the heart of a record-breaking transfer tug of war between Todd Boehly’s souped-up Chelsea transfer juggernauts and Liverpool. Indy tweeted along to the saga with relish. First it was the detail that Caicedo would be having a

15 Five massive transfers that never happened 2004 Rivaldo to Bolton When Bolton were at their peak, with the likes of Jay-Jay Okocha, El Hadj Diouf and Youri Djorkaeff strutting their stuff, Rivaldo heard the siren call of Big Sam and was on the brink of a move to The Reebok. He even posted a statement underlining his desire to help Bolton challenge for Europe. Then Olympiakos swooped and the Greek sun proved too hot to resist. 2005 Steven Gerrard to Chelsea In the mid-Noughties Rafa’s Liverpool were locked in a bitter rivalry with the Special One’s Chelsea. Hardly the time for their Scouse hero and captain to be tempted by a move down south. He was on the brink of doing just that, until a visit from some local wise guys brought a change of heart. He went on to lead Liverpool on that famous night in Istanbul – and just went you thought it was all over, Chelsea came calling again! But Stevie couldn’t bring himself to slip away. 2010 Robert Lewandowski to Blackburn Big Sam Allardyce successfully lodged a £4 million bid for the young Pole, who was keen on a move to Lancashire, only to have second thoughts after the infamous Icelandic ash cloud descended across Europe, grounding all flights. Instead he decided to go to Dortmund – and the rest is history. 2013 Luis Suarez to Arsenal “What are they smokin’ over there at the Emirates?” was what Liverpool owner John Henry furiously hammered on to his keyboard as Arsenal bid £40 million plus £1 for his star man. Although that bid triggered El Pistolero’s release clause, he never made the move to the Emirates. Something about a conversation with Stevie G. Not those wise guys again?

Mykhailo Mudryk signed for Chelsea after a transfer tussle with Arsenal

Teams call at precisely 9pm with Jürgen Klopp. Not Zoom, not Facetime, Teams – the titillating speciﬁcity just enough to get you on the hook. Then came a post relaying Caicedo’s dizzy spell and urgent request for water when his Liverpool-bound helicopter was grounded by a last-minute intervention from Chelsea. For fans of both persuasions, there was an invitation to a front row seat beyond the velvet rope. The updates came by the minute, the spikes of dopamine climbed higher and higher, until it turned out Caicedo was heading to The Bridge. The fallout was bleak. According to world-leading

expert on addiction Anna Lembke, as soon as the anticipation of or the dopaminedriven event itself has ended we experience a comedown, or dopamine dip. “For every high, there is a low,” she says. And in that low, what do we most want? That anticipation to return. The promise of more “here we goes!”. The itch that only a new signing can scratch. Another factor in our transformation into transferphiles is the rise of video games (no really), transforming us all into back-seat managers-cum-sporting directors, where perceived inactivity has become a cardinal sin. Strangely, the football powers

that be seem content to yield to fan pressure. Recently non-league Bromley opened applications for a ‘sport performance technician’. To apply for the role candidates must have completed the ‘Championes’ achievement on Football Manager 24 by winning the domestic league title. Bromley ﬁrst team coach Andy Woodman told the BBC: “It’s the age where everyone thinks they can do a better job.” Now more than ever, in the age of career mode and Football Manager, fans possess a genuine sense of entitlement that their opinions should not only be given the time of day but acted on, and swiftly! After Manchester United started the 2022/23 Premier League season with two consecutive defeats, including a 4-0 drubbing at Brentford, fans were howling for signings. In came Casemiro for £70 million, followed by Antony for £82 million. The signings were a shoddy patch to staunch rising levels of toxicity within the fanbase. Panic signings are nothing new, but things have ratcheted up a notch in recent years, largely driven by the entitlement of fanbases. Ignorance, it turns out, was bliss. As the Roman empire crumbled at Chelsea in March 2022, there were some big shoes to ﬁll at the Bridge. In danced Todd Boehly and his merry band of billionaires from Clearlake

Capital. The American has shaken things up, with 44 combined incomings and outgoings in three transfer windows. But Boehly’s transfer dealings aren’t just notable because of the money spent – battle has been waged in the public eye. Mykhailo Mudryk seemed destined for the Emirates, to the extent that he looked confused and a little put out when he found himself plonked on the pitch in west London. Caicedo’s helicopter (so we’re told) was diverted after a personal intervention from Boehly himself.

2015 David De Gea to Real Madrid A dodgy fax machine caused the Man United keeper to miss out on a dream move to Madrid after paperwork was submitted just two minutes after the deadline. Real swiftly issued a statement blaming United for the breakdown, with United replying with a message of their own stating they were delighted that De Gea would be staying in Manchester. Was the fax machine really broken?

loitering outside Loftus Road, and late-night shenanigans with faulty fax machines. Success is no longer a formula of good recruitment, organisation and coaching, as a social-media-infused culture of instant gratiﬁcation has wrapped its roots around the modern game and the game slides into a postmoney era where £72 million can no longer buy you a single Premier League goal. But beneath all that oneupmanship and ego ﬂickers something profound. It hasn’t worked yet. PSG have not

managed to win that elusive Champions League, and Chelsea – after three transfer windows of excess – ﬁnd themselves mid-table in the Premier League. So, long live that Brazilian midﬁelder who will sign for Brighton, just to be bought by Chelsea for £100 million next summer. Long live the Premier League and long live the magic of the transfer window. Where there is hope, there is life. n Lola Katz Roberts is a Liverpool

fan and content writer for Fitzdares.

The type of player targeted is

another indication of a club in the thrall of the transfer zeitgeist. Of the 31 permanent signings by Chelsea since Boehly’s arrival, 19 appear in Football Manager 2023/24’s database of ‘top wonderkids’. For every Raheem Sterling, there are three Lesley Ugochukwus. This won’t come as a shock. Chelsea have adopted a clear strategy, hoovering up young talent. However, this overlap demonstrates the extent to which the sophistication of games such as Fifa and Football Manager, and fanbases’ obsession with transfers, have dissolved the boundaries between what used to be separate entities. Gone are the days of purple dildos, Peter Odemwingie

Behdad Eghbali and Todd Boehly at Stamford Bridge

CRAFTING NATURE’S RARE JEWELS

The trade-off between lucrative TV deals and the broad reach of free-to-air broadcasters has left rugby and HE RECENT DECISION by the government to reject calls for the Six Nations Rugby Championship to be added to the list of ‘crown jewels’ has once again ignited the complex and very important debate about how – and where – elite sport is shown on television in the UK. Category A list events must be shown live on free-to-air television. Chief among them are: the men’s and women’s football World Cups, the FA Cup final, the Grand National, the Derby, the men’s Rugby World Cup final (note, just the final), Wimbledon and the Olympics. The men’s Six Nations is Category B, which means it can be shown on pay television provided there are highlights on a terrestrial station. Cricket was controversially relegated to the secondary list, hence why there’s barely been any free-to-air men’s Test cricket in this country since the memorable summer of 2005. I’m aware this is a weighty start to any article, but it’s hugely important to recognise the

ramifications of where top-class sport is shown. This isn’t a criticism of the editorial rigour of satellite TV; there are no quibbles at all from me on that score. I’m equally aware I have some skin in this game. I’ve spent more than 30 years in sports broadcasting – first at BBC Radio and now at ITV – where any programme is freely available, but my main concern simply is access. I want as many people as possible to be exposed to elite sport live. Highlights are good, but they’re a drive-through; I want people to be able sit down and enjoy the whole dinner. I adore cricket because I grew up in it. My father was a cricket obsessive: he started his own club, he was the groundsman at the pitch in our village, my mum mowed the outfield, I painted the boundary lines and creases and ran the bar with him. He’d watch any cricket on the BBC, and had he lived to see the advent of Sky TV I would have bought him a subscription so he could watch as much cricket as he liked. Sky covers cricket in the way the BBC

observer, the households who can’t aﬀord satellite TV or those where cricket just isn’t a conversation – and they won’t be drawn in to the Test game because they can’t see it. Compare a day at the men’s Ashes last summer with the memorable series of 2005, when it was last on Channel 4. Sky’s

It’s hugely important to recognise the ramifications of where top-class sport is shown

The BBC's Jonathan Agnew is heard but not seen these days

never could, with its range, its depth, the time it can devote to it, the excellence of analysis from its ex-players, its commitment to the women’s game and to all the myriad competitions – however controversial some may be.

Sky is a commercial enterprise and its job is to sell subscriptions and satisfy shareholders. It serves the cricket lover exceptionally, but that doesn’t alter the fact the game doesn’t get the ‘eyeballs’ it used to. It doesn’t reach the casual

audience peaked at 2.12 million on the ﬁnal day of this year’s thrilling opening Test at Edgbaston; 8.4 million watched the nail-biting fourth Test denouement at Trent Bridge 18 years ago. The England and Wales Cricket Board would argue that the deals struck with Sky were fundamental in keeping the game, and the counties in particular, solvent. They’d also point to the introduction of The

Will the Six Nations slip out of the public eye?

cricket at a crossroads, says Mark Pougatch Hundred and argue that some of those games are live on the BBC. That competition has been a huge success for the women’s game (the jury is seriously out on the men’s tournament) and is undoubtedly a gateway to some to our summer sport, but the horse is several furlongs down the track now and it’s hardly worth bolting the door. My fiercely held belief is that the role of the administrator is to satisfy the financial needs while at the same time making sure there’s a viable sport for your grandchildren to enjoy in the future. There’s no point in being a well remunerated but niche game. The cricket example, then, is a useful backdrop to what might happen next in men’s rugby union. The domestic game is excellently served by TNT and there’s an increasing presence on ITV as well. The recent figures for the World Cup are up there with anything on British television in the past 12 months (ie since the men’s football in Qatar): an 8.6 million peak for England v South Africa and a 7.7 million peak for

the World Cup ﬁnal itself. These are hefty ﬁgures in British television in 2023. The Six Nations is a huge, traditional, cultural, annual sporting festival where every match is currently free to air. It doesn’t take much of a mental jump to realise how many people are enjoying England v Wales and Scotland v France who don’t watch any other rugby. Free to air keeps the game in the public eye, it keeps it relevant, it keeps it a water cooler conversation on a Monday morning at work, at a time when the sport needs every supporter it can muster. Rugby is facing a massive issue at the moment with its concussion and protection protocols. To hide the showpiece event of the men’s calendar behind a paywall at this stage of its history – and in this climate – would be a hugely risky move. Money or legacy? As the PM often says in Parliament, “I refer you to the answer I gave some moments ago.” It’s beholden upon skilled administrators to ride both horses simultaneously.

The likes of Nathan Lyon and Pat Cummins could probably walk down Oxford Street unmolested

Notice, I’ve barely mentioned football. That’s because it’s a behemoth which is so omnipresent, so popular that it can live in its own ecosystem and every men’s and women’s England match is free to air anyway. This is Joshua

one conversation where, hallelujah, we don’t need to talk about the infernal VAR. I’m not pretending these are easy decisions, but we’re living in the most competitive leisure marketplace of all time. Kids don’t

even have to leave their rooms or screens for entertainment now. Keep your sport relevant; keep your sport seen. n Mark Pougatch presents ITV’s

football and rugby coverage.

Inside the mind of a man who knows a chica from a chiquita, with Joseph Bullmore

‘P

ADEL IS THE fastest-growing sport in the world,” Hugo says on every first date (and they’re all first dates at this point). In fact, the only thing that’s growing faster is Hugo’s ego this evening as he bandejas his way to victory over another pair of sixtysomething housewives who are only here in the first place to have a go on Antonio, the leathery club pro with the ‘miraculous fingers’. Well, you’ve got to keep your Playtomic score up, Hugo thinks, mopping his brow like Fulham’s Rafael Nadal, only with slightly less hair – especially as his bank balance keeps on going down. (Good padel rackets only begin at £350, the Spanish guys at work said. Anything else is just a glorified beach bat.) Hugo is a member of 16 padel groups on WhatsApp and has muted almost everything else to better concentrate on them, including some business about grandma’s funeral and that work one about acceptable pronouns. The groups have names that warm his soul and shiver his spine. Padel Playmates. The Padel Pirates. Padel 4 Paddy’s Day. Padel ’n’ Pasta (they were hosing cacio e pepe off the astro for days!) The Glass Animals. Lawyers That Lob (and also Angus). Simply: Padel, 4 .7. 23 . At one point, Hugo had put his

name down for eight matches in a single day, many of them occurring simultaneously and in different TFL zones – a metaphysical impossibility he hoped to overcome with the judicious use of an especially spicy LimeBike. (The baskets, he had often thought, are almost tailor-made for a padel racket – plus two spares.) Sometimes a notification appears on his phone from an old tennis group he is still part of, echoing like a halfheard whisper from some other time, some other era, some other life. He does not respond. To think of that lot straining with overhead serves or retrieving errant tennis balls from hedgerows is to walk past the Amish people of Pennsylvania, still tilling their field with the horse and plough, dismally unaware of the combustion engine or, I don’t know, Skype. Didn’t they know the future was here? And it wasn’t even worth getting started on pickleball, which Hugo and the Spanish chaps in the office who didn’t know his name liked to call “giant granny ping-pong”. (One Thursday, Hugo suggested beers and tapas, but everyone was busy.) Uploading the pensioner drubbing to his Instagram Stories (“6-0, 6-2 – bit of cramp at the end #Babolat”), Hugo is filled with the split-second satisfaction his therapist (JP Morgansubsidised) tells him he has been

Hugo is a member of 16 padel groups on WhatsApp and has muted almost everything else…

chasing since his father showed up to that one under-16s match before all the Cayman stuﬀ. This sense of wellbeing is shattered almost immediately, however, when he spots a story from Lucas, an acquaintance from the Exeter days, who appears to be on a specialist padel tour in Sotogrande alongside seven of Hugo’s most frequent playing partners. Lucas has been a padel player for one month less than Hugo and is thus, in the grand scheme of things, an utter novice, a complete dilettante, a baby-faced greenhorn with admittedly very good hand-eye. In fact, Hugo now recalls, the blood thrumming in his ears, he had been the one to teach Lucas the rules and etiquette of the sport during his very ﬁrst game. Lucas insisted on using a topspin forehand for most of it. What is this – Wimbledon?! Hugo had chuckled to himself before losing fairly convincingly. And now this. Et tu, Lucas? The betrayal – the NFI to what looked, from Chiswick’s grey courtside, to be some vision of padel heaven – is almost too much to bear. In frustration, Hugo decides to re-wrap the purple overgrip on his racket for the seventh time that month. His next game is in 15 minutes. It will take at least one Huel to calm him down. Padel is not a sport to be taken in anger.

On the court, moments later, Hugo is paired with a galumphing chartered surveyor with two theatrical knee supports. Richard is handy at the net, largely because he is so very wide, but is hugely vulnerable to the lob. And hypertension. He wears a Queen’s Club polo shirt which hangs like a tablecloth from the ledge of his yogaball stomach, and it is not at all clear that he is a member. Hugo spends most of the match saying “not to worry, Rich, we’ll get the next one” through an increasingly strained smile. At match-point down, Richard, the scaﬀolding around his ACL holding on for dear life, frying-pans a volley into the net. In frustration and dismay, Hugo launches his second-best Babolat at the glass wall – only for it to ping back immediately towards his face. Wrist-straps are no good for tantrums. It is now 10pm on a Tuesday. It is his ﬁfth loss of the week. Hugo is glad his father isn’t here to see this. On the bench afterwards, buttoning up his Sir Plus gilet, he Googles: “how to change your padel rating if you’re actually quite good but keep getting paired with really lazy partners who probably have gout.” And then: “Padel coach near me. Female.” n Joseph Bullmore is Editor

of the Gentleman’s Journal.

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With one candidate in the dock and the other looking alarmingly frail, anything could happen in the 2024 US presidential election. Carla Subirana seeks out value for political punters MERICANS ARE FACING a difficult choice in next year’s presidential election. The Republicans look likely to pick 77-year-old Donald Trump as their candidate once again, a man with the spraytanned charisma to draw in big crowds but one also facing 91 (yes, 91!) criminal charges. Up against him, the Democrats have committed to the re-election campaign of Joe Biden, a man with an election victory under his belt but whose best years probably came last century and whose physical and mental frailty risks becoming the focus of the campaign. This selection has fuelled a sharp increase in self-described ‘independent’ voters, meaning that the polls are now probably even less accurate than usual, for a couple of reasons. First, independent voters are, by definition, less reliable. What they say now to pollsters may bear little resemblance to what they say next November. Second, the desire for something different means there is a higher than usual number of independent presidential candidates in the race (Robert Kennedy Jr, Cornel West, Jill Stein and Joe Manchin). Simply put, this means any poll that looks at only Trump vs Biden is of little use. Adding another layer of complexity, there are increasingly few ‘swing’ states, making national polls even less relevant than they were in previous elections. Only six states really matter – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Of those, three states represent the minimum Biden needs to win: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. Given all that, is there any point in trying to make predictions? Well, no matter how unusual this election looks, there are

two age-old factors that reliably help predict election results: the economy and turnout.

“It’s the economy, stupid” – James Carville

The economy will always be an important factor in presidential elections, but, in an age of mass data and content overload, it’s hard to know what part of ‘the economy’ to look at. What matters is the actual impact of economic conditions on people’s lives. For that reason, the ‘Misery Index’ (inﬂation rate + unemployment rate) is the most closely correlated economic indicator with presidential election results. If things are more expensive and there are fewer jobs available, happiness will be in shorter supply and presidents are less likely to be re-elected. Of the four modern-day US presidents to have lost re-election bids, three did so at a time when the Misery Index was higher than when they entered oﬃce, and the fourth (Gerald Ford) faced

STORIES Ralph Nader, a consumer rights and environmental advocate, won nearly 3% of the popular vote in 2000, arguably helping George W. Bush win a very close election. Ross Perot, the billionaire Texan, won an astonishing 19% of the popular vote in the 1992 election won by Bill Clinton. John B. Anderson, a lawyer and congressman, won nearly 7% of the popular vote in the 1980 presidential election won by Republican Ronald Reagan. George Wallace, the Governor of Alabama, took 14% of the popular vote in 1968 when Republican Richard Nixon won the election. Theodore Roosevelt, 26th US President, won 27% of the vote as a “Progressive” candidate, losing to Woodrow Wilson in 1912.

one of the highest Misery Index recordings in US history. For Biden, this suggests his chances are on a knife-edge, but he is, at least for now, falling on the right side of it, with the Index currently fractionally below where it was when he entered the White House. Nevertheless, downside risks are lurking on the horizon, including a possible recession and the inﬂationary impact of military escalation in the Middle East.

“Low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls” – Al Gore As it stands, Biden’s approval ratings are below all four of those one-term presidents at the same point prior to their election losses (including Trump in 2020). Even on disapproval ratings, Biden is (surprisingly, given Trump’s legal woes) scoring worse than Trump, albeit only very marginally. There is one big upside for Biden, though. In a string of recent elections – the 2022 mid-terms and the 2023 state-level elections – the Democrats outperformed polling, registering higher than expected numbers due primarily to Republican attempts to reduce abortion rights. Democrats also won elections surprisingly easily for Supreme Court judges in key swing states Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, based almost wholly on the abortion issue. It could yet prove an election winner. However, in all the above cases Biden himself wasn’t on the ballot. In fact, swing state polling suggests that a ‘random’ Democrat candidate (ie not Biden) would win comfortably against Trump across key swing states. That should make Democrats very nervous about the impact their current pick might have on turnout in a tight race.

So, who to back? Everything above points towards a nail-biter next November; neither party is likely to win more than 300 electoral college seats. With Biden’s age already an issue and facing the scrutiny of a debate and the rigours of months of intense campaigning, Trump is a slight favourite. Yet Biden’s odds probably still slightly undervalue his chances, given good enough economic indicators and the unquantified impact of potential criminal convictions for Trump on independent voters. As a result, wildcards might be more appealing. If Trump is forced out due to his legal problems, Nikki Haley would probably be the Republican nominee, having impressed in the primary debates and attracted a growing number of donors. She would also stand a better chance of actually winning the election than Trump himself, with greater appeal to independents. Worth a shot at long odds. For the Democrats, Biden’s health concerns (and growing nervousness) probably leave at least a 15 per cent chance he pulls out. Vice-president Kamala Harris is undervalued as the potential nominee (with the same odds at present as Michelle Obama). Assumptions that she can’t win an election have wrongly translated into assumptions that she wouldn’t be the Democrat nominee. She would certainly be Biden’s choice in his absence and would be carrying a narrative of the first potential female president that would be politically difficult for other Democrats to oppose. She is still the best bet for Democrat nominee if Biden doesn’t run, even if she’s unlikely to ever win a presidential election. n Carla Subirana is a freelance writer

for The Economist and Euronomics.

TOUCHDOWN TAKE-OFF The NFL is intent on conquering the world – but don’t expect a London team any time soon, says Nat Coombs HE NFL HAS already conquered America. Sure, regional nuance dictates which sport rules where – Messi-mania has gripped Miami, the deep south will always favour college football over the professional product, and New York loves the Yankees. But by most significant metrics – total revenue, franchise value, broadcast contracts – the NFL is on top. And now, it’s going global. In fact, the league has been sizing up international expansion for some time, with the UK right at the forefront of its ambition. The first International Series game was held in London in 2007. Fast forward 16 years and London has hosted games every year since, and multiple fixtures since 2013, the only exception being the Covid-affected 2020 season. What began as an experiment, met initially with bafflement and somewhat patronising disdain from NFL purists Stateside, has now become a staple of the regular season calendar. Players love coming over, fans too, and even sceptical team owners and coaching staff, keen to avoid unnecessary disruption, have bought into the process. This longevity is now being juxtaposed with experimentation. The three 2023 London games were held in consecutive weeks for the first time. Germany, which came on to the scene last year as a host country for the International Series, staged back-toback games in Frankfurt in November. NFL commissioner Roger Goodell has indicated that more countries will be handed games, with talk of Spain being next in line. Long-standing rumours of a team being located in London are fading, and talk of a possible European league is emerging. Shane Vereen, a now retired twotime Super Bowl winner with New England, who played (and scored a touchdown) at Wembley for the New England Patriots in 2012, feels that’s the more likely outcome. “I believe if you put one team in London, or Germany, it would be a disadvantage for that team,” he says, citing the disproportionately high volume of travel a UK-based team would face compared to their US counterparts. “I think if you put a division in Europe, maybe two teams in London, two teams in Germany,” continues Vereen, “now that makes sense to me.” All kinds of questions arise from the idea of this type of expansion. Would these be current NFL teams relocating? The precedent of franchises changing cities is apparent in the NFL over the years – but as many as four?

GOING Dolphins vs Giants 28 October 2007 The New York Giants outbattled the Miami Dolphins in the first ever international NFL game after the construction of the new Wembley. Led by Eli Manning, the Giants would go on to end the Patriots’ 18-0 streak and win Super Bowl 32 in Arizona that year. Since the first ‘London game’ in 2007, the NFL has branched out into Germany, Mexico and Canada.

There’s also a precedent for expansion franchises – that is to say, new teams created in the league – but a whole new division would necessitate an imbalance: which conference would the new division sit in? OST LIKELY, THE NFL will up the ante in terms of volume of games played internationally. League execs will tell you expansion beyond the domestic market – outside of Europe, games have been held recently in both Canada and in Mexico – is about bringing the fans closer to the game, and that’s a valid argument, even if cynics see it ﬁrst and foremost as a way for the NFL to make more money. There are other important and substantial consequences of the NFL’s attempt to build more of a global foothold. Osi Umenyiora, another double Super Bowl winner, has been instrumental in the development of the NFL in Africa, but primarily from a player discovery perspective more than anything else. Since the inception of this talent drive a few years ago, a number of African players are signed up to NFL rosters, with more at leading colleges in the US. Investment in creating opportunity is key to the NFL’s expansive view. The International Pathway Program provides athletes from around the

M Investment in creating opportunity is key to the NFL’s expansive view.

world the chance to join an NFL team, sign a professional contract and develop their skills and transition to the highest level. It has featured British players including Christian Scotland-Williamson, who changed lanes from playing professional rugby in the Premiership to joining the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2018. Christian Wade joined the Buffalo Bills from Wasps in the same year, as did Australian rugby player Jordan Mailata, who joined the Philadelphia Eagles. Mailata is now a key player on the Eagles’ offensive line and played in Super Bowl LVII. Accessibility in terms of participation is being further heightened with the onset of flag football, a non-contact version of the sport that’s just been announced as included in the 2028 Olympics. According to the International Federation of American Football, an estimated 20 million in more than 100 countries are currently playing flag. Rumours are abounding that the US will enter a team featuring current NFL superstars – like a Dream Team II – which isn’t exactly a fair fight but will create further connection in different parts of the world that previously might not have taken a second look. And how about a Super Bowl in London, as commissioner Goodell cheekily suggested is a possibility?

Raiders vs Texans 21 November 2016 Mexico made its NFL debut back in 2016 when the Texans hosted the Raiders in the Estadio Azteca. Raiders QB Derek Carr led a memorable 4th quarter comeback, throwing two unanswered TDs as the Raiders moved to 8-2 on the season with a 27-20 win.

Buccaneers vs Seahawks 13 November 2022 In a career spanning more than two decades, Tom Brady won it all as an NFL Quarterback… but he’s also the first QB to win an NFL game in Germany, describing it as “one of the great football experiences I’ve had”. The Bucs hosted the Seahawks at the Allianz Arena last year, holding off a spirited Seattle comeback as Brady’s Buccaneers won the inaugural Germany game, 21-16.

That seems unlikely currently, not least due to the logistical challenges that would require a kick-oﬀ circa midnight local time to meet the primetime broadcast needs of America. Mind you, two decades ago American Football was considered one of the most insular sports around. Now it’s taking on the world. In future, perhaps nothing should be discounted. n Nat Coombs has been broadcasting

NFL coverage in the UK for more than 15 years, hosting on BBC TV, Channel 4 and TalkSport Radio.

Our ROYAL ASCOT PICNIC returned as special guests and Fitzdares Ambassadors, George Scott and Charlie Fellowes, were on hand to ensure everyone’s champagne glass was suitably topped up. We partnered with Cipriani’s to provide members with an extra Italian twist ahead of what we thought was to be Frankie Dettori’s final Ascot!

After our Canadian launch earlier this year, it was only a matter of time until the Club made its international debut. In October, we brought a taste of it to the ROYAL HORSE SHOW in Toronto.

The Barley Mow hosted our RUGBY WORLD CUP preview evening, where World Cup winner Jason Leonard and renowned broadcaster John Inverdale joined us to preview all the action in France.

For a second consecutive season, we signed on as Fulham FC’s Official UK Betting Partner, but this time with a twist. We launched our CLUB AT CRAVEN COTTAGE for our members to enjoy Premier League action from the most luxurious setting anywhere in the world!

Having given the Churchill Box a makeover, we returned to our home-away-from-home for a third season on the spin. We sponsored the Sprint Series at ROYAL WINDSOR again and treated guests to the best racecourse hospitality in the business. Our superb maître-d’ Rad, kept members well hydrated with oceans of champagne and our famous Club canapes!

26 Dial in your winners. In October, we shot our first-ever brand campaign: LET’S BET PERSONAL. Our worldly maverick hero was photographed by Derrick Santini and styled by Georgina Hodson at Craven Cottage and Royal Windsor Racecourse. You will see the campaign across digital and print media over the coming months as we look to dial up (excuse the pun) our personal telephone service.

WINTERREADS

Lola Katz Roberts picks out her top five stocking thrillers for the festive season and beyond…

Dead Rich By GW Shaw A tale of what really happens in the plush environs of a luxury megayacht. Blockbuster adventure meets mystery, as a tantalising escape from London’s grey skies to a sun-drenched paradise descends into murderous mayhem. The plot begins with vague sketches of shadowy characters and half-heard conversations, before suddenly exploding. It has all the classic thriller hallmarks: a locked room, a race against time and an impending crisis, seamlessly combined with detailed renderings of rich Caribbean vistas and nautical adventure. All set against the looming spectre of the criminal underworld and its murky machinations. Pulsating would by no means be an understatement.

The Hunting Party

Wrong Place Wrong Time

By Lucy Foley A group of old friends, a golden couple, New Year’s Eve and a remote lodge in the Scottish Highlands – what could possibly go wrong? This is an old-school whodunnit on steroids. As the group settles in at the Lodge, the beautiful wilderness becomes a savage wasteland and cracks between the friends begin to show. All is not well, and the burgeoning sense of menace grows page by page. Deep bonds of friendship are quickly revealed to be nothing more than a shoddy façade. A dark obsession casts a pall over the group. Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide and no one to trust. Disaster strikes and the reader is left to put the puzzle together. This is a richly entertaining dissection of long-term friendships and all the water that flows under the bridge.

By Gillian McAllister Do you believe in time travel? I certainly didn’t, but in this mind-bending mystery thriller Gillian McAllister manages to synthesise sci-fi with a family drama in such convicting style, it will have you lingering on those moments of déjà vu a moment longer and wondering: can you prevent a crime that’s already happened? That’s what Jen tries to do as she is catapulted back in time after witnessing her son commit a murder. As she tumbles back through the days, weeks, months and years, everything she thought she knew about her family is painfully dragged under the microscope. Each page offers fresh mysteries and reappraisal of memories long forgotten. The question is, how well do you know the people you love?

ESSENTIAL

FOUR FREE PODS

Nick Luck Daily is absolute staple of any discerning racing fan’s morning routine. Always an engaging dissection of the day’s news, with the biggest names in the business. Listen via The Racing App – and enjoy your betting, streaming & podcasting in one place. Acquired: The NFL takes an in-depth look at various companies, in conversation with founders and CEOs. The NFL episode charts the history of a sport that has grown from a quasi-illicit league in small midwestern towns to the largest global media property. Off The Bridle sees George Scott and Charlie Fellowes romp their way through the racing issues of the hour. It is a laugh a minute, while also a chance to get inside the minds of two top-class trainers and their unique perspectives on the racing world. Horse Racing Heroes devotes each episode to one great horse or person in racing. Mark Walsh interviews those closest to the subject, resulting in a bounty of untold stories and moving reflections on great days gone by.

Leave The World Behind By Rumaan Alam Very few books are able to command a lasting effect long after you’ve read the final page. The gut-wrenching unease of this apocalyptic mystery, and Rumaan Alam’s effortless destruction of all sense of security, makes for a deeply disturbing and thought-provoking thriller. Manhattan high-flyers Amanda and Clay head to Long Island for a summer getaway with their children, and the family enjoy unwinding in their decadent vacation home. Then the Wi-Fi starts to blink and that flimsy connection to civilisation begins to fray. There’s a knock at the door… the plot begins to pinwheel towards an unknown darkness. A Netflix film, starring Julia Roberts, Ethan Hawke and Mahershala Ali, has just been released.

THE CROSSWORD

£100 PRIZE for the first correct submission! Email answers to rory@fitzdares.com

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DOWN 1. Wolves manager (4,5) 2. Competitor (5) 3. Connecticut University (4) 5. Jiu-_____ (Brazilian sport) (5) 6. Late Australian conservationist (5,5) 8. Strength training (10) 10. A ballet turn (9) 11. 2012 Oaks winner (3) 12. Jason ___ (Australian golfer) (3) 13. Cry for help (3) 18. Type of investor (5) 19. An umpire’s home (5) 20. Roman clothing (4)

By Ana Reyes An eerie and delicately paced thriller that luxuriously unfurls its secrets chapter by chapter. It begins with Maya, in the throes of withdrawal, trying to kick an addiction to alcohol and painkillers she has been in the grip of since witnessing a traumatic event. One night she stumbles upon a YouTube video that brings back all the memories she has tried so hard to bury. She returns home desperate for answers, forcing herself to face the events of seven years prior that sparked her addiction. Digging through the splinters of her memory, all roads begin to lead to a cabin in the woods and a boy with a knack of making her lose track of time. This beguiling mystery offers perfect escapism to autumnal upstate New York, and you won’t want to put it down.

ACROSS 1. Euro 2024 host (7) 4. Martial Arts school (4) 7. Club in Buenos Aires (5,5) 9. Trophy (3) 11. Caribbean cricket team’s nickname (7) 14. ___ Marina, Abu Dhabi racetrack (3) 15. Atom (3) 16. Formerly known as the World Hurdle (7) 17. Circuit (3) 21. Nathan Aspinall’s previous job (10) 22. What am I? (4) 23. Liverpool racecourse (7)

The House in the Pines

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