Fine & Country Regional Report Wales Spring 2024

SPRING 2024

W A L E S M A R K E T U P D AT E

WALES

£477,000

£626,057

-2.4%

£339

£877m

70

MORTGAGE APPROVALS (DEC)

50,459

6.1%

25.6%

RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS (DEC)

80,420

-4.8%

-17.8%

GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING (DEC)

£17.2bn

-12.1%

-24.6%

62,688

2.7%

-8.7%

238,927

-

-8.6%

NEW HOMES BUILT (Q423) NEW HOMES BUILT (ANNUAL)

2

P RE M I U M M ARK E T S

W AL E S

GROWING MOMENTUM

It has been a generally encouraging start to 2024. Mortgage rates are falling and confidence among buyers and sellers is increasing. Monthly upticks in prices reflect this optimism, alongside growing sales and rising stock levels. Consumer confidence is on the upswing, with buyer demand gaining momentum.

POSITIVE START The Bank of England has held the interest rate at 5.25% and the general view is that we are at the top of the rate rise cycle. Current forecasts are that interest rates will begin to be cut in the second half of 2024 and are expected to be below the 5% forecast back in September (HM Treasury, average of independent forecasts). With a brightening outlook, the average two-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 5.93% at the start of January to 5.56% in February, the biggest monthly decrease since December 2022 (Moneyfacts). Falling mortgage rates, wage growth outstripping inflation and a strong labour market are supporting increasing confidence among buyers and sellers.

NUDGING UPWARDS House prices were up 2.5% in January compared to the same month last year, the strongest annual growth rate in a year (Halifax), adding to the tentative signs of recovery for the housing market. Both the Halifax and Nationwide indices showed month-on-month house price growth in January (1.3% and 0.7% respectively) as the market gains momentum.

In Wales, annual price growth is beginning to pick up. In Q4 2023 annual growth was -1.9%, an improvement from -5.4% the previous quarter (Nationwide).

Despite an unsteady 2023, house prices are still 23% above December 2019 levels, the equivalent of £52,899 (UK HPI).

Market conditions are increasingly positive in early 2024, with metrics for buyer demand, sales and new instructions

all turning positive in January for the first time in a while (RICS). More homes are also available for sale, an average 41 properties per surveyor in January, the highest level since March 2022 (RICS). Easing inflation and falling mortgage rates mean that confidence is increasing, with 57% of estate agents saying that the rate of withdrawals has decreased in the last three months (Dataloft Poll of Subscribers).

PRIME MARKETS Top end sales have shown resilience, with the proportion of sales over £1 million steady, accounting for 3.0% of sales in 2023 compared to 3.2% in 2022 (Dataloft, Land Registry year to December). Increased interest rates have put cash buyers in a strong position, accounting for a third (32%) of sales in 2023, compared with a fifth (20%) on average between 2017 and 2022 (Zoopla). In Wales, the prime markets of Barry and Newport are currently the best performing.

STEP INTO SPRING Spring is the season of new beginnings and a great time to get your property on the market. Increased sunshine and blooming gardens make homes more appealing. One of the prime seasons for home sales, properties sell the fastest in spring, an average of just 51 days over the last five years, compared to 61 days in winter (Rightmove). Over the same period, 27% of sales took place in spring, the highest of all the four seasons (Dataloft, HMRC).

P RE M I U M M ARK E T S

W AL E S

3

£406,000 £550,872 -1.6% £291

£520,000 £721,977 +1.1% £374

£585,000 £777,078 +0.4% £389

£527,000 £697,691 -0.6% £343

£477,000 £626,057 -2.4% £339

£827,000 £1,139,585 -0.3% £541

£769,000 £1,052,593 -2.1% £502

4

P RE M I U M M ARK E T S

£508,000 £689,853 +1.2% £356

£992,000 £1,440,646 -1.1% £604

W AL E S

£1,700,000 £2,782,814 -3.3% £1,311

WALES PREM IUM M ARK ET

£421,000 £556,166 -1.6% £280

£330,000 £398,924 -4.9% £242

£332,000 £425,496 +0.5% £236

£559,000 £685,109 -9.9% £414

£453,000 £601,259 -3.5% £328

£477,000 £595,607 +6.5% £317

£738,000 £969,780 +8% £398

£587,000 £751,461 -0.5% £394

P RE M I U M M ARK E T S

W AL E S

5

WALES PREM IUM M ARK ET

WALES

9% 7.5% 6% 4.5% 3% 1.5% 0% -1.5% -3% JAN 2023

FEB 2023

MAR 2023

APR 2023

MAY 2023

JUN 2023

JUL 2023

AUG 2023

SEP 2023

OCT 2023

NOV 2023

DEC 2023

WALES

£400 £350

£ 363

£ 361 £ 334

£300

£ 318

£ 339

£250 £200 £150 £100 £50 £0 DETACHED

6

P RE M I U M M ARK E T S

W AL E S

SEMI-DETACHED

TERRACED

FLAT/APARTMENT

ALL PROPERTY

WALES M AINST REAM M ARK ET

WALES

16% 8% 0% -8% -16% -24% -32% -40% -48% DEC 2022

JAN 2023

FEB 2023

MAR 2023

APR 2023

MAY 2023

JUN 2023

JUL 2023

AUG 2023

SEP 2023

OCT 2023

NOV 2023

WALES

£320 £280 £240

£ 261

£200

£ 212

£160

£ 204

£ 203

FLAT/APARTMENT

ALL PROPERTY

£ 167

£120 £80 £40 £0 DETACHED

SEMI-DETACHED

TERRACED

P RE M I U M M ARK E T S

W AL E S

7

WALES

£191,253 £477,000 £626,057

£129,532 £291,000 £388,863

£147,408 £320,000 £405,571

£197,222 £399,000 £514,326

£317,224 £662,000 £843,797

£198,520 £488,000 £639,473

POWERED BY

2024-02-02