AUGUST 2021
N O R T H W E S T M A R K E T U P D AT E
KEY STATS N O R TH WE S T
£495,000
£671,747
15.92%
£322
£3.71bn
399
LATEST DATA
QUARTERLY CHANGE
ANNUAL CHANGE
81,338
-4.6%
98.2%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS (MTH)
198,240
-3.8%
219%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING (MTH)
£43.8 bn
4.2%
169%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT)
37,190
23.7%
36.0%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT)
36,190
-16.7%
24.4%
MORTGAGE APPROVALS (MTH)
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NORTH WEST
MARKET OVERVIEW B U S I E SA T UMTAURMKNE TS IHA N D A ED S ECADE Brexit andsixthe budgetofhave headlines over the pastthe quar ter, andmarket. while the The first months 2021dominated has seen records broken across housing With latter provided few fireworks for to theoutstrip real estate market, the deal or no deal demand for property continuing available supply, mortgage ratesquestion remaining continues to linger. Rhetoric hashigher been more positive in recent weeks; now that all eyes arewill on low and consumer confidence than pre-pandemic levels, it is likely 2021 the EUthe summit in mid-November. uncer tainty,is annual housetoprice growthover prove busiest market in over aDespite decade.the Price growth anticipated moderate remains positive across England and Wales, except London, although transaction levels the coming months. remain muted. DOUBLE-DIGIT PRICE RISES WATCHING AND WAITING The average price of a property across the UK is currently
10% higher than a year ago, standing £254,624. Price There was positive economic news inatthe Budget: eight growth at its strongest September 2007,since significantly years of iseconomic growth,since 3.3 million new jobs 2010 higher than the 1.1%forecast recorded year and ago wage (UKHPI). Average with 800,000 more by a2023, growth at price growth North West isIndependent currently 15.2%, up from its highest levelininthe nearly a decade. forecasts from Office Budget Responsibility also 0.2% the a year ago.for A shortage of supply and(OBR) high demand have predict inflation to fall back to the government’ s target of underpinned growth in 2021 to date, with new record asking 2% over the course of 2019. sales volumes prices across all regions of theHowever, UK (Rightmove). The desire remain low, albeit down just 1.5% across the wake NorthofWest for a lifestyle change and more space in the the in the twelve coupled months to June compared to asaw yearanearlier. After pandemic, with taxation savings, estimated a880,000 brief reprieve oversales the complete summer the number of months mortgage property in the first six of approvals across the UK has also slowed. the year. Close to 200,000 sales completed in June alone,
as the first of across the stamp duty holiday to anand end House pricephase growth much of the UK iscame slowing, in England and the Land Transaction Tax holiday ended the North West is no exception. Annual house price in Wales (HMRC). growth in the year to August (UK HPI) was 3.3%, down from 5.4% a year earlier. Across the prime market annual price growth was 5.0% over the FAVOURABLE past year. CONDITIONS REMAIN
Buyer demand remains considerably higher than a year ago (Zoopla and Rightmove). In excess of 81,000 new mortgages were approvedand in June (Bankbuyers of England), 20%real higher Housebuilders first-time were over the main than the long- termofJune estate beneficiaries the average. Autumn Encouragingly, Budget. As thethe majority government meet its 300,000 homes of purchasersaims whotomissed theambitious original 30th Junenew stamp per target,look a range of continue initiativeswith weretheir announced. dutyyear deadline set to purchases Additional monies £500 million for the (Rightmove). At 38totalling days, Rightmove report theHousing average time new homes, Investment to deliver 650,000 taken to sellFund a property (from marketing to sold new subject partnerships with Housing Associations, removal of thestart to contract) is almost four weeks shorter than at the revenue cap for local councils and a business-backed of 2021. While the flow of new supply to the market has guarantee formore SME ‘normal’ builders levels, are all there in the remains pipeline.a started to scheme return to As too is large-scale infrastructure investment and moves to shortfall in the number of available properties to purchase. reinvigorate the high street, with proposals to allow Consumer confidence is on an upward trajectory, ahead conversion of unusedlevel, retailwith unitsthe toGfK residential and changes of its pre-pandemic index indicating to business rates relief for small businesses. consumers are considerably more confident in making a majorfirst-time purchase.buyer numbers at an all-time high, rumours With that the Help to Buy Equity scheme would be scrapped post April 2021 proved unfounded. Instead the scheme will
BUDGET WINNERS AND LOSERS
LOOKING AHEAD
Thebemajority of agents anticipate property prices extended until the end of March 2023, withwill therise value of overthe theloan next twelve months. However, with a sizeable subject to a new regional cap. Across the North proportion purchasers who missed theon 30th June deadline West theofcap will be £224,400. Based an analysis of new likely to renegotiate on price (25% Rightmove, 42% Dataloft build property sales over the past year just over half (61%) subscriber poll),been thereavailable may welltobe a brake onfirst-time the morebuyers. would have prospective dramatic increases in recent the2017 The SDLT relief seen introduced formonths. first-timeIndeed, buyersboth in the Halifax and Nationwide point to a slight fall in price monthBudget will also be extended to all those who purchase a on-month in June andproperty. July. The direction of have the market in a shared-ownership Those who purchased nd November theshared final quarter willsince most22 likely depend on2017 the impact property will alsoofbe theable removal of government support packages which have to claim the relief retrospectively. supported the labour market over the past 18 months. The government is also going to consult on reforms to However, despite prices rising, mortgage payments for the lettings relief which looks set to impact on many so-called majority of purchasers have not followed suit. Mortgage rates ‘accidental’ landlords. Non-resident buyers will face a 1% are close to an all-time low, and affordability matrices remain additional SDLT surcharge over and above all other costs. on par with the long-term average. Sales volumes for 2021 are Although this is yet another tax rise, it is less than the 3% predicted to be in the region of 1.5 million, making the market indicated by the government earlier this autumn. the busiest in over a decade.
THE VALUE OF PRIME THE PRIME MARKETS HM Treasury netted £455 million in stamp duty receipts Larger properties have proved thein most sought-after toofdate (SDLT) from the North West the year to the end in 2021 as the search for space has helped fuel price growth. March 2018, up 15.2% on a year previously, the highest rise Rightmove reportaided a 39% sales for larger homes,One of any region, byincrease a rise in in sales volumes of 3.8%. those with four or more bedrooms, against 15% fall inofstock quarter of receipts were attributed to thea purchase coming to theproperties, market in the halfmillion of 2021 compared to 3% withfirst £145 raised from the additional 2019. Prime property price thethird North is additional levy alone. Justgrowth under in one of allWest residential 15.9%, stronger thanwere the average across andpurchased Wales. taxation receipts attributable to England properties for over £500,000, 12.1% to properties purchased The price threshold for a premium market property infor theover £1 million. North West is currently £495,000. Close to 400 properties have sold for £1 million or more in the past 12 months. The average price for prime market property exceeds £600,000 in three areas across the North West. The prime markets across Manchester and Warrington are currently experiencing the highest level of price growth, average prices of prime property have risen by 17% and 7% respectively over the past year.
PREMIUM MARKETS I NORTH WEST I 3
P R E MRIEUGMI O MNAARLK E T S T OP ON 5% PREM IU M5 % M ABRYK ERTEG S : I TOP
£390,000 £390,000 £515,707 £515,707 +10.4% +10.4% £247 £247
£495,000 £495,000 £671,747 £671,747 +15.9% +15.9% £322 £322
£550,000 £550,000 £720,956 £720,956 +15.6% +15.6% £339 £339
£500,000 £500,000 £654,805 £654,805 +15.2% +15.2% £294 £294
£437,000 £437,000 £567,062 £567,062 +13.6% +13.5% +13.6% £288 £288
£705,000 £705,000 £963,070 £963,070 +18.4% +18.4% £435 £435
44 II PREMIUM WEST PREMIUM MARKETS MARKETS II NORTH NATIONAL
£483,000 £482,000 £483,000 £646,251 £646,251 £645,805 +15.8% +15.8% £307 £307
£771,000 £771,000 £1,043,648 £1,043,648 +12.8% +12.8% £488 £488
£916,000 £916,000 £1,307,640 £1,307,640 +15.1% +15.1% £515 £515
£1,500,000 £1,500,000 £2,418,692 £2,418,692 –0.1% –0.1% £1,135 £1,135
TOP 5% N O R TH WE S T P R EM I U M M A R K E T
£260,000 £356,949 +15% £193
£390,000 £514,069 +11% £239
£358,000 £455,369 +8% £240
£339,000 £451,970 +10% £225
£403,000 £544,253 +28% £254
£395,000 £517,220 +17% £302
£656,000 £811,043 +6% £332
£410,000 £556,787 +20% £277
£650,000 £920,904 +14% £412 £529,000 £689,283 +22% £320
£752,000 £1,046,361 +16% £402 PREMIUM MARKETS I NORTH WEST I 5
TOP 5% N O R TH WE S T P R EM I U M M A R K E T
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is the value over which the top 5% of property sales occur. The chart shows a rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for premium properties compared to the previous 12 month.
NORTH WEST
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
APR 2021
MAY 2021
JUN 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
An individual premium price threshold is calculated for each property type based on sold prices in the last 12 months. The chart shows the average price paid per square foot for all of these premium properties.
NORTH WEST
£400
£372 £300
£358 £305
£322
£320
£200
£100
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NORTH WEST
MAINSTREAM N O R TH WE S T M A I N S T R EA M M A R K E T
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE REGION
Chart shows a rolling 12-month change in transactions compared to the previous 12-month period. PLEASE NOTE: Caution should be taken when viewing this chart as figures may show an exaggerated decline due to the closure of the market April to June 2020. Housing market demand remains strong, with the HMRC reporting 198,240 sales in June 2021.
NORTH WEST
Transactions
20%
Average sales price
10% 0% -10% -20% -30% JUN 2020
JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
APR 2021
MAY 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF ALL PROPERTY SALES
NORTH WEST
Average price paid per square foot for all property transactions.
£320
£240
£160
£246 £201
£194
£184
£140 £80
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NORTH WEST I 7
KEY STATS N O R TH WE S T
£177,739 £495,000 £671,747
£129,515 £334,709 £473,990
£123,565 £306,393 £400,094
£191,322 £413,449 £529,413
£328,857 £750,000 £1,013,823
£183,504 £501,405 £686,424
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515 E: parklane@fineandcountry.com fineandcountry.com
Disclaimer :This repor t is produced for general information only.Whilst ever y effor t has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction of all or par t of the repor t in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd. Repor t edited by Inform user and published on 02-08-2021.
Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures since March are lower than usual due to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward. dataloft.co.uk