FC National Housing Market Report March 2024

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MARCH 2024
£ 829, 000 £ 1, 251, 366 - 1. 7% £ 670 £ 36. 6b n 15, 826 M ORTGAGE AP P ROVALS (JAN) 5 5 , 2 2 7 1 3 . 0 % 4 0 . 2 % RESI DENTI AL TRANSACTI ONS (JAN) 8 2 , 0 0 0 -3 . 8 % -1 1 . 9 % GROSS M ORTGAGE LENDI NG (JAN) £ 1 6 . 9 bn -5 . 6 % -2 5 . 6 % NEW HOM ES BU I LT (Q423) 6 2 , 6 8 8 2 . 7 % -8 . 7 % NEW HOM ES BU I LT (ANNU AL) 2 3 8 , 9 2 7 - -8 . 6 %

SEASONAL SPRING BOUNCE

Levels

of cautious optimism are improving for a more buoyant year ahead as home mover activity is increasing, however realistic pricing is still essential.

NUDGING UPWARDS

The average new seller asking price rose by 0.9% (£3,091) between January and February. Average prices are now up by 0.1% year-on-year after experiencing annual falls since August 2023, an indication that the market may be turning a corner (Rightmove). House prices displayed more resilience against higher mortgage rates than had previously been assumed. Lloyds Banking Group revised its house price forecasts, now expecting softer price moderation through 2024 than was anticipated a few months ago. A decline of 2.2% is now forecast, with property values returning to positive growth next year.

MORTGAGE METRICS

As inflation heads in the right direction, average rates on both two-year and five-year fixed-rate mortgages have fallen for six consecutive months (Moneyfacts). The average twoyear fix is now 5.59% and the five-year is 5.23%. A host of lenders are offering rates below 5% and even 4%, whereas in November 2023 no lenders offered fixed rates below this level. Mortgage rates are expected to remain within the 4% to 5% range, potentially moving a little lower over 2024, but this depends on the Bank Rate and if there is a cut later this year. Stability in the mortgage market continues; the average shelf-life of a mortgage product rose to 28 days, the highest figure since February 2023 (Moneyfacts).

DEMAND UP

Sub 5% mortgages mean agreed sales are 16% higher than the same period last year and 3% higher than in 2019 (Rightmove). This may be indicating pent-up demand, with a return to the market of buyers who had previously

been delaying a move. Mortgage approvals in January reached their highest level since October 2022, up 40.2% on the same time last year (Bank of England). There was a 7.2% uptick between December and January, the fourth consecutive monthly rise, indicating market momentum as we head into spring. Transactions also increased 1.9% between December and January, the first monthly rise since August 2023 (HMRC).

Almost two thirds (64%) of agents surveyed said there are on average three or more prospective buyers for each of their properties currently available, and a further 20% said there were six or more (Dataloft Poll of Subscribers). With more buyers in the market, the likelihood of achieving a successful sale is increased, however with a small proportion of sellers reducing asking prices, it’s vital to price realistically.

MORE CHOICE

After a period of limited new supply to the market, there are indications of more balance as stock levels improve. Zoopla report a 21% uplift in the stock of homes for sale year-onyear, a sign of greater confidence amongst vendors and a boost in choice for buyers. With greater supply and clear demand, the housing market is on track for 10% more sales in 2024 than 2023 (Zoopla).

In England and Wales, the average price of a prime market property is £1,251,366, down 1.7% year-on-year. Yorkshire and the Humber has seen the strongest growth at 0.4%. New instructions in the higher £5m+ market rose in January by 41% compared to a year ago. Although sales were down on a year earlier, they were 64% ahead of the pre-pandemic (2017–2019) January average (LonRes).

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-3% -1 5% 0% 1 5% 3% 4 5% 6% 7 5% 9% F EB 2023 MAR 2023 APR 2023 MAY 2023 JUN 2023 JUL 2023 AUG 2023 SEP 2023 OCT 2023 N OV 2023 D EC 2023 JAN 2024 £ 624 £ 586 £ 749 £ 1,078 £ 670 £0 £150 £300 £450 £600 £750 £900 £1,050 £1,200 D ETACH ED SEMI-D ETACH ED TERRACED F LAT/APARTMEN T ALL PROPERTY

£268,218 £829,000 £1,251,366

£221,396 £735,000 £1,175,359

£212,482 £676,000 £1,077,958

£266,731 £671,000 £947,711

£443,878 £1,180,000 £1,692,315

£279,928 £847,000 £1,260,209

-48% -42% -36% -30% -24% -18% -12% -6% 0% JAN 2023 F EB 2023 MAR 2023 APR 2023 MAY 2023 JUN 2023 JUL 2023 AUG 2023 SEP 2023 OCT 2023 N OV 2023 D EC 2023
-6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% F EB 2023 MAR 2023 APR 2023 MAY 2023 JUN 2023 JUL 2023 AUG 2023 SEP 2023 OCT 2023 N OV 2023 D EC 2023 JAN 2024 £ 344 £ 284 £ 241 £ 340 £ 290 £0 £50 £100 £150 £200 £250 £300 £350 £400 D ETACH ED SEMI-D ETACH ED TERRACED F LAT/APARTMEN T ALL PROPERTY
62 57 55 55 55 55 55 57 59 62 66 71 78 48 52 56 60 64 68 72 76 80 JAN 2023 FEB 2023 MAR 2023 APR 2023 MAY 2023 JUN 2023 JUL 2023 AUG 2023 SEPT 2023 OCT 2023 NOV 2023 D EC 2023 JAN 2024 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 D EC 2022 JAN 2023 FEB 2023 MAR 2023 APR 2023 MAY 2023 JUN 2023 JUL 2023 AUG 2023 SEP 2023 OCT 2023 NOV 2023 D EC 2023 JAN 2024 2024-03-01 POWERED BY

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