MAY 2021
WA L E S M A R K E T U P D AT E
KEY STATS W AL ES
£419,000
£546,274
10.84%
£285
£798m
37
LATEST DATA
QUARTERLY CHANGE
ANNUAL CHANGE
82,735
-11.3%
45.3%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS
190,980
31.2%
102.4%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING
£35.6 bn
25.8%
54.6%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT)
29,980
-4.5%
27.1%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT)
44,030
27.6%
11.4%
MORTGAGE APPROVALS
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I WALES
MARKET OVERVIEW MAO R WDAERSD UVTIUNMGNF O S HA Brexit have dominated headlines over quarhas ter, bounced and whileback, the Only aand yearthe on budget from a full property market lockdown andthe thepast market latter fireworksdemand for theisreal estate market, the dealthe or market, no deal aquestion hittingprovided new highs.few Continued driving momentum across shortage continues to linger. Rhetoric has beenProtective more positive in recent weeks; nowroadmap all eyes to are on of supply underpinning price growth. measures are easing as the the EU summit in mid-November. theunderway. uncer tainty, annual house price growth ‘normality’ progresses, with economicDespite recovery remains positive across England and Wales, except London, although transaction levels remain muted. CONFIDENCE CLIMBS WATCHING AND WAITING Restrictions are lifting and the UK’s vaccine rollout is both
on track proving highly successful. Continued economic There wasand positive economic news in the UK government's supporteight packages, the government the jobs Budget: years announced of economicbygrowth, 3.3 millioninnew March2010 Budget, a welcome boost, by supporting since withwere 800,000 more forecast 2023, andthe wage economy reopens fully. Consumer confidence is at its growth at as its ithighest level in nearly a decade. Independent forecasts fromsince the the Office forofBudget highest level start 2008, Responsibility the PwC index(OBR) also predict inflation to fall back to the target 34 points higher than at the start of thegovernment’ pandemic. sUK However, sales volumes of 2% over the course of 2019. business confidence in the service and manufacturing sectors remain low,strongest down 4.4% the November three months to was at its levelininWales Aprilinsince 2013 September compared a year earlier. After brief (IHS Markit). The latesttoforecasts expect the aUK economy reprieve summer the level number of mortgage to returnover to itsthe pre-pandemic by the summer of approvals across the UK has also slowed. anticipated. 2022, six months quicker than previously Unemployment is set to peak at 6.5%, lower While house price growth across much considerably of the UK is slowing, than earlier forecasts of 11.9% (OBR). Interest rates remain Wales is bucking the national trend. At 6.2%, annual house low and although mortgage approvals dipped slightly in April price growth in Wales currently exceeds the UK average of to their lowest level since last August, in excess of 82,700 3.2% in the year to August (UK HPI), up from 5.1% a year loans were approved, over 20% higher long earlier. Across the prime market, prices than havethe risen by term 2.7% (5-year) over the monthly past year.average (Dataloft, Bank of England). The extension of the stamp duty holiday and the introduction on April 1st of 95% government-backed mortgages were BUDGET WINNERS AND LOSERS welcomed by the property sector. Across England housebuilders and first-time buyers were the main real estate beneficiaries of the Autumn Budget. A RECORD-BREAKING suite of initiatives was announced to support house building, while announcement the extension until March 2023 Springthe is traditionally the of busiest time of the year for the and the inclusion of stamp of the Help to Buy housing market andEquity 2021 Loan is already setting records. In duty relief on than shared ownership properties both recorded aid firstMarch, more 190,000 property sales were time buyers. and mortgage lending exceeded £35.6 billion, record highs according to HMRC and Bank of England respectively. Across Wales, the situation is different. Since April 2018 Demand levels in March were 34% higher year-on-year first-time buyers have received no Land Transaction Tax (Zoopla) and purchases, 23% of homes wereno sold agreed’on within relief on their however tax‘sale is payable one week (Rightmove). The Royal Institute£55,000 of Chartered properties less than £180,000, a threshold higher than across England. Nearly two-thirds (63%) of properties sold across Wales during the last year were below this threshold.
Surveyors report the sales rate per surveyor in March was at its highest level did since the summer of 2014, with sales-for The Budget announce an additional £550the million to-stock ratio at its strongest in over 17 years. Momentum Wales, taking its devolved budget to £16.1 billion in continued into In April, Rightmove reporting properties 2019/2020. addition, an extra £120 million was selling faster in the first two weeks than at any point in its history. announced to support the North Wales growth deal and Although valuation activity is on the rise, this is failing to keep the borrowing powers of the Welsh government were pace with demand, resulting in strengthened price growth. boosted by £300 million to aid key projects such as the M4 relief road.
FUTURE DIRECTION In terms of house building, the Housing Revenue Account
will be removed from local (HRA) borrowing Annual property pricecap, growth across the UK is at its strongest authorities in Wales, as in England in a bid to stimulate the in over six years, with price growth in Wales currently 8.4%, provision of more new homes. Across all sectors, in the 12 compared to 4.4% a year ago (UKHPI). Nationwide report months to June a total of 6,002 new dwellings were started average prices in the UK have risen 2.1% between March across Wales, 19% lower than during the 12 months to the and April, the largest month-on-month increase recorded end of June 2017, and 6,157 new dwellings were completed, since February 2004. Agents are reporting the strongest 15% lower than during the previous 12-month period. sentiment towards price growth between April and June since the summer of 2015 (RICS). Premium markets are currently THE VALUE OF PRIME outperforming the general market; eight out of ten regions in England and Wales are seeing growth of over The Welsh Revenue Authority netted £16010%. million in Land Transaction Tax from Wales in the year to the end of March
THE PRIME MARKETS 2018, up 14.3% on a year previously and the second highest rise of any region across England and Wales. This was aided Prime price growthwhich in Wales is currently 10.8%, onto by aproperty rise in sales volumes, were up 5.7% compared parthe withyear thepreviously. average across England and Wales. The Nearly one quarter (24%) of average receipts price for attributed a prime market £400,000 in six were to theproperty purchaseexceeds of additional properties, areas of £60 the country; the price Cardiff and Pembroke/ million raised frominthe 3% additional levy alone. with Tenby over one-fifth £600,000,ofinallBarry over £700,000. Higher-value Justisunder residential taxation receipts were from properties priced over £500,000. homes have proved popular in recent months. More than 1,200 homes sold for over £400,000 in Wales during the first The average price for prime market property exceeds three months of 2021, the highest quarterly figure recorded £500,000 in two areas across Wales: Barry and Cardiff. since Land Transaction Tax replaced Stamp Duty Land Tax in However, it is the prime markets across Newport and Wales from April 2018. Wrexham that are currently experiencing the highest level of price growth, where average prices of prime property have risen by 9% and 8% respectively over the past year.
PREMIUM MARKETS I WALES I 3
P R E MRIEUGMI O MNAARLK E T S T OP ON 5% PREM IU M5 % M ABRYK ERTEG S : I TOP
£376,000 £376,000 £501,573 £501,573 +7.3% +7.3% £247 £247
£473,000 £473,000 £474,000 £641,792 £641,437 £641,792 +10.8% +10.9% +10.8% £319 £319 £319
£525,000 £525,000 £525,000 £693,912 £693,912 £693,912 +10.3% +10.3% +11.3% £335 £335 £335
£482,000 £481,000 £630,387 £630,186 +10.2% +10.2% £291 £291
£419,000 £419,000 £546,274 £546,274 +10.8% +10.8% £285 £285
£686,000 £686,000 £938,080 £938,080 +15.3% +15.3% £435 £435
44 II PREMIUM PREMIUM MARKETS MARKETS II WALES NATIONAL
£460,000 £460,000 £460,000 £610,643 £610,643 £610,643 +10.3% +11.1% +10.3% £299 £299 £299
£750,000 £750,000 £1,007,650 £1,007,650 +10.0% +10.0% £483 £483
£905,000 £904,000 £904,000 £1,302,081 £1,301,890 £1,301,890 +17.2% +11.1% +17.2% £517 £517 £501
£1,550,000 £1,550,000 £2,508,438 £2,508,438 +6.4% +6.4% £1,180 £1,180
TOP 5% W AL ES P R EM I U M M A R K E T
£400,000 £508,496 +18% £262
£275,000 £329,117 +0% £186
£299,000 £367,547 +12% £195 £422,000 £524,270 +11% £250
£450,000 £602,252 +15% £245
£405,000 £556,176 +10% £284
£600,000 £747,184 +13% £326
£500,000 £625,886 +7% £333
PREMIUM MARKETS I WALES I 5
TOP 5% W AL ES P R EM I U M M A R K E T
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is the value over which the top 5% of property sales occur. The chart shows a rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for premium properties compared to the previous 12 month.
WALES
12.5%
10%
7.5%
5%
2.5%
0% APR 2020
MAY 2020
JUN 2020
JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
An individual premium price threshold is calculated for each property type based on sold prices in the last 12 months. The chart shows the average price paid per square foot for all of these premium properties.
WALES
£400
£300
£340 £313 £272
£285
£282
£200
£100
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I WALES
MAINSTREAM W AL ES M A I N S T R E A M M A R K ET
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE REGION
Chart shows a rolling 12-month change in transactions compared to the previous 12-month period. PLEASE NOTE: Caution should be taken when viewing this chart as figures may show an exaggerated decline due to the closure of the market April to June 2020. Housing market demand remains strong; the HMRC report sales in March 2021 were the highest monthly figure ever recorded.
Transactions
WALES
Average sales price
10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% MAR 2020
APR 2020
MAY 2020
JUN 2020
JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF ALL PROPERTY SALES
WALES
Average price paid per square foot for all property transactions.
£240
£211 £180
£185
£175
£171
£139
£120
£60
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I WALES I 7
KEY STATS W AL ES
£169,343 £419,000 £546,274
£122,037 £290,000 £363,948
£123,775 £280,579 £358,571
£164,419 £330,105 £417,578
£267,160 £562,173 £714,686
£173,228 £424,939 £553,430
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515 E: parklane@fineandcountry.com fineandcountry.com
Disclaimer :This repor t is produced for general information only.Whilst ever y effor t has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction of all or par t of the repor t in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd. Repor t edited by Inform user and published on 04-05-2021.
Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures since March are lower than usual due to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward. dataloft.co.uk