MAY 2021
N O R T H W E S T M A R K E T U P D AT E
KEY STATS N O R TH WE S T
£473,000
£641,792 £641,437
10.79%
£319
£2.63bn
283
LATEST DATA
QUARTERLY CHANGE
ANNUAL CHANGE
82,735
-11.3%
45.3%
RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS
190,980
31.2%
102.4%
GROSS MORTGAGE LENDING
£35.6 bn
25.8%
54.6%
NEW HOME STARTS (QT)
29,980
-4.5%
27.1%
NEW HOME COMPLETIONS (QT)
44,030
27.6%
11.4%
MORTGAGE APPROVALS
2 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NORTH WEST
MARKET OVERVIEW MAO R WDAERSD UVTIUNMGNF O S HA Brexit have dominated headlines over quarhas ter, bounced and whileback, the Only aand yearthe on budget from a full property market lockdown andthe thepast market latter fireworksdemand for theisreal estate market, the dealthe or market, no deal aquestion hittingprovided new highs.few Continued driving momentum across shortage continues to linger. Rhetoric has beenProtective more positive in recent weeks; nowroadmap all eyes to are on of supply underpinning price growth. measures are easing as the the EU summit in mid-November. theunderway. uncer tainty, annual house price growth ‘normality’ progresses, with economicDespite recovery remains positive across England and Wales, except London, although transaction levels remain muted. CONFIDENCE CLIMBS WATCHING AND WAITING Restrictions are lifting and the UK’s vaccine rollout is both
on track proving highly successful. Continued economic There wasand positive economic news in the Budget: eight support packages, announced the government in the years of economic growth, 3.3 by million new jobs since 2010 March Budget,more wereforecast a welcome boost, the at with 800,000 by 2023, andsupporting wage growth economy it reopens Consumer confidence is at its highest as level in nearlyfully. a decade. Independent forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) its highest level since the start of 2008, the PwCalso index predict inflation fall at back the of government’ s target 34 points highertothan thetostart the pandemic. UKof 2% over the course of 2019. However, sales volumes business confidence in the service and manufacturing sectors remain low,strongest albeit down 1.5% since acrossNovember the North2013 West in was at its leveljust in April the months to June compared to athe yearUK earlier. After (IHStwelve Markit). The latest forecasts expect economy atobrief reprieve the summer thebynumber of mortgage return to its over pre-pandemic level the summer of approvals across the UK has also slowed. anticipated. 2022, six months quicker than previously
Unemployment is setacross to peak at 6.5%, lower House price growth much of theconsiderably UK is slowing, and than earlier forecasts of 11.9% (OBR). Interest rates the North West is no exception. Annual house priceremain low andinalthough slightly growth the yearmortgage to Augustapprovals (UK HPI) dipped was 3.3%, down in April to their lowest level since last August, in excess annual from 5.4% a year earlier. Across the prime market of 82,700 loans overyear. 20% higher than price growth waswere 5.0%approved, over the past the long term (5-year) monthly average (Dataloft, Bank of England). The extension of the stamp duty holiday and BUDGET WINNERS AND LOSERS the introduction on April 1st of 95% government-backed mortgages were welcomed the property Housebuilders and first-timeby buyers were thesector. main real estate beneficiaries of the Autumn Budget. As the government aims to meet its ambitious 300,000 new homes RECORD-BREAKING per year target, a range of initiatives were announced. Additional monies totalling £500 million Housing Spring is traditionally the busiest time offor thethe year for the homes, newIn Investment Fundand to deliver housing market 2021 is650,000 already new setting records. partnerships removal the March, morewith thanHousing 190,000Associations, property sales were of recorded revenue cap for local councils and a business-backed and mortgage lending exceeded £35.6 billion, record highs guarantee forand SME builders are all respectively. in the pipeline. according scheme to HMRC Bank of England As too is large-scale infrastructure investment and moves to Demand levels in March were 34% higher year-on-year reinvigorate the high street, with proposals to allow (Zoopla) and 23% of homes were sold ‘sale agreed’ within conversion of unused retail toInstitute residential and changes one week (Rightmove). Theunits Royal of Chartered to business rates relief for small businesses.
With first-time buyer numbers at an all-time high, rumours that the Help to Buy Equity scheme would be scrapped post April 2021 proved unfounded. Instead the scheme will
Surveyors report the sales rate per surveyor in March was at its highest level since of 2014, with thethe salesbe extended until the the summer end of March 2023, with value of to-stock ratio at its strongest in over 17 years. Momentum the loan subject to a new regional cap. Across the North continued into April, Rightmove reporting West the cap will be £224,400. Based onproperties an analysisselling of new faster in the first two weeks than at any point its half history. build property sales over the past year just in over (61%) Although is on rise, this first-time is failing tobuyers. keep would valuation have beenactivity available to the prospective pace with demand, resulting in strengthened price growth. The SDLT relief introduced for first-time buyers in the 2017 Budget will also be extended to all those who purchase a shared-ownership property. Those who have purchased a FUTURE DIRECTION shared property since 22nd November 2017 will also be Annual price growth across the UK is at its able property to claim the relief retrospectively. strongest in over six years, with price growth in the North The government is also going to consult on reforms to West currently 11.9%, compared to 1.7% a year ago (UKHPI). lettings relief which looks set to impact on many so-called Nationwide report average prices in the UK have risen 2.1% ‘accidental’ landlords. Non-resident buyers will face a 1% between March and April, the largest month-on-month additional SDLT surcharge over and above all other costs. increase recorded since February 2004. Agents are reporting Although this is yet another tax rise, it is less than the 3% theindicated strongestbysentiment towards price growth between April the government earlier this autumn. and June since the summer of 2015 (RICS). Premium markets are currently outperforming the general market; eight out of ten THE regionsVALUE in EnglandOF andPRIME Wales are seeing growth of over 10%. HM Treasury netted £455 million in stamp duty receipts
THE PRIME (SDLT) fromMARKETS the North West in the year to the end of
March 2018, up 15.2% on a year previously, the highest rise Prime property in in thesales North Westof is 3.8%. currently of any region,price aidedgrowth by a rise volumes One 10.8%, on par with thewere average across England and Wales. quarter of receipts attributed to the purchase of Theadditional average price for a prime market property properties, with £145 million raisedexceeds from the 3% £500,000 in six of the the price in Manchester additional levyareas alone. Just region; under one third of all residential andtaxation Chesterreceipts is over £800,000 and in Stockport overpurchased were attributable to properties for over £500,000, 12.1% to properties purchased over £1 million. Higher-value homes have proved popular inforrecent £1 million. months. Across England, more than 54,000 homes sold for over £500,000 during the first three months of 2021, the The average price for prime market property exceeds highest quarterly figure ever recorded. These buyers have £600,000 in three areas across the North West. The prime benefitted from a £15,000 saving, thanks to the stamp duty markets across Manchester and Warrington are currently holiday (HMRC). experiencing the highest level of price growth, average prices of prime property have risen by 17% and 7% respectively over the past year.
PREMIUM MARKETS I NORTH WEST I 3
P R E MRIEUGMI O MNAARLK E T S T OP ON 5% PREM IU M5 % M ABRYK ERTEG S : I TOP
£375,000 £376,000 £497,551 £501,573 +6.4% +7.3% £247 £247
£473,000 £473,000 £474,000 £641,792 £641,437 £641,792 +10.8% +10.9% +10.8% £319 £319 £319
£525,000 £525,000 £525,000 £693,912 £693,912 £693,912 +10.3% +10.3% +11.3% £335 £335 £335
£481,000 £481,000 £630,186 £630,186 +10.2% +10.2% £291 £291
£419,000 £419,000 £546,274 £546,274 +10.8% +10.8% £285 £285
£686,000 £686,000 £938,080 £938,080 +15.1% +15.3% £435 £435
44 II PREMIUM WEST PREMIUM MARKETS MARKETS II NORTH NATIONAL
£460,000 £460,000 £460,000 £610,643 £610,643 £610,643 +10.3% +11.1% +10.3% £299 £299 £299
£750,000 £750,000 £1,007,650 £1,007,650 +10.0% +10.0% £483 £483
£905,000 £904,000 £904,000 £1,302,081 £1,301,890 £1,301,890 +16.0% +11.1% +17.2% £517 £517 £501
£1,550,000 £1,550,000 £2,508,438 £2,508,438 +6.4% +6.4% £1,180 £1,180
TOP 5% N O R TH WE S T P R EM I U M M A R K E T
£250,000 £338,171 +12% £192
£378,000 £488,950 +7% £241
£341,000 £450,605 +10% £237
£328,000 £423,422 +3% £215
£390,000 £538,743 +27% £243
£374,000 £495,933 +14% £288
£650,000 £809,704 +7% £359
£385,000 £516,625 +10% £266
£628,000 £857,541 +3% £409 £490,000 £651,305 +17% £301
£748,000 £1,016,096 +12% £404 PREMIUM MARKETS I NORTH WEST I 5
TOP 5% N O R TH WE S T P R EM I U M M A R K E T
PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
The premium price threshold is the value over which the top 5% of property sales occur. The chart shows a rolling 12 month change in the average price paid for premium properties compared to the previous 12 month.
NORTH WEST
12.5%
10%
7.5%
5%
2.5%
0% APR 2020
MAY 2020
JUN 2020
JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
MAR 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS, PROPERTIES SOLD ABOVE THE PREMIUM PRICE THRESHOLD
An individual premium price threshold is calculated for each property type based on sold prices in the last 12 months. The chart shows the average price paid per square foot for all of these premium properties.
NORTH WEST
£400
£374
£359
£300
£296
£319
£315
£200
£100
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
6 I PREMIUM MARKETS I NORTH WEST
MAINSTREAM N O R TH WE S T M A I N S T R EA M M A R K E T
ALL PROPERTIES SOLD ACROSS THE REGION
Chart shows a rolling 12-month change in transactions compared to the previous 12-month period. PLEASE NOTE: Caution should be taken when viewing this chart as figures may show an exaggerated decline due to the closure of the market April to June 2020. Housing market demand remains strong; the HMRC report sales in March 2021 were the highest monthly figure ever recorded.
Transactions
NORTH WEST
Average sales price
10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% MAR 2020
APR 2020
MAY 2020
JUN 2020
JUL 2020
AUG 2020
SEP 2020
OCT 2020
NOV 2020
DEC 2020
JAN 2021
FEB 2021
Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
BY PROPERTY TYPE OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS OF ALL PROPERTY SALES
NORTH WEST
Average price paid per square foot for all property transactions.
£320
£240
£241 £160
£195
£190
£178
£134 £80
0 FLAT/APARTMENT
TERRACED
SEMI-DETACHED
DETACHED
ALL PROPERTY Source: Dataloft, Land Registry
PREMIUM MARKETS I NORTH WEST I 7
KEY STATS N O R TH WE S T
£170,516 £473,000 £641,437
£125,956 £330,240 £446,920
£119,025 £291,201 £382,993
£185,158 £396,291 £508,787
£317,981 £724,434 £971,265
£176,199 £484,873 £654,923
T: +44 (0)207 079 1515 E: parklane@fineandcountry.com fineandcountry.com
Disclaimer :This repor t is produced for general information only.Whilst ever y effor t has been made to ensure the accuracy of this publication, Dataloft Ltd accepts no liability for any loss or damage of any nature arising from its use or from any changes made to Dataloft content by Inform users. Reproduction of all or par t of the repor t in any form is prohibited without written permission from Dataloft Ltd. Repor t edited by Inform user and published on 04-05-2021.
Please note, HM Land Registry transaction figures since March are lower than usual due to the impact of Covid-19. They are likely to be revised upward. dataloft.co.uk