A ‘mosaic’ perspective of climate due to natural and societal influences By E. Craig Jowett
E
arlier this year, UN General Assembly President María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés stated that only 11 years remain to avert global climate change catastrophe. (www.un.org/press/en/2019/ ga12131.doc.htm) This statement got me interested in learning about the effects of human population on climate and the ability to sustain ourselves. As such, I undertook an extensive analysis of the available government information in these areas. In doing so, I now believe that some of the ongoing finger pointing is misdirected, and that we will be just fine, even after 11 years.
10.0
R² = 0.999
8.0
Billions of People
CLIMATE CHANGE
association, ‘time order’ with population increasing before CO2, and a valid mechanism for humans producing CO2 in their daily lives. But with poor correlation, or correlation with no mechanism or time ordering present, a causal connection cannot be inferred between any two variables, even CO2 and temperature.
6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
300
325
350
375
400
425
CO2 ppm Figure 1. Growth of world population closely mimics growth of NOAA World CO2 in the atmosphere. Figure 1. Growth of world population closely mimics growth of NOAA World CO₂ in the atmosphere. Should we worry about this increase of CO2 (and of population), and what other variables are connected, such as air temperature? What emergencies are there? Do we really have only 12 years left? But with poor correlation, or correlaSETTING THE GLOBAL SCENE Agricultural Food Crops World population correlates very tightly tion with no mechanism or time orderFor sustainability, one essential consideration would certainly be world food supply. United Nations Food with the National Oceanic and Atmo- ing present, a causal connection cannot & Agriculture publishes annual data for food products around the world. For 20 of the top agricultural spheric Administration (NOAA) World be inferred between any two variables, food products, including corn, wheat, rice, potatoes, beans, cassava, sorghum and yams, plus sugar cane, fresh vegetables and fruits, production has increased an average of 54% from 2000 to 2017. Only sweet CO₂ levels (Figure 1), and a case for even CO₂ and temperature. potato production has decreased. Should we worry about this increase of causal connection is inferred because of
the close association, “time order” with population increasing before CO₂, and a valid mechanism for humans producing CO₂ in their daily lives.
CO₂ (and of population), and what other variables are connected, such as air temperature? What emergencies are there? Do we really have only 11 years left?
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44 | August 2019
Environmental Science & Engineering Magazine
