The European Security and Defence Union Issue 30

ISSN 2192-6921

Independent Review on European Security and Defence − A product of ProPress Publishing Group

Volume N° 30

Climate Change A global security and humanitarian challenge

The Energy Union: Europe’s transition to a low-carbon society

Reducing the impact of climate damage

Maroš Šefčovič, Vice-President for the Energy Union, EC, Brussels

Bärbel Dieckmann, President of Welthungerhilfe, Bonn

www.magazine-the-european.com A magazine of the Behörden Spiegel Group

Edition 2/2018

Editorial

How could it have come to this? For the first time an anti-system and anti-European government has been formed in a founding Member State of the European Union (EU). Like previous elections in Europe, the Italian election has demonstrated once again that voter rejection of Europe is largely driven by a sometimes vicious campaign rhetoric against incumbent politicians and the EU’s failures, but also by the death of information about what the Union does in fact accomplish. Brussels simply leaves the average citizen cold.

In a modern Europe and a globalised world, it is regrettable and alarming that nationalist populist movements are gaining ground in nearly all Member States. Those of us who support Europe should not lose heart, but we must not bury our heads in the sand and hope the problem will go away. After all, populist parliamentarians have been democratically elected and the reason they excoriate Brussels is that the EU has failed to come up with practical ways to address deep-seated voter apprehensions about border security and migration and Europe’s cultural identity.

For decades, the EU has done much to ensure that Europeans can live together in peace. If it does not now demonstrate that it can bestir itself and take visible and decisive action instead of sticking to its usual bureaucratic routine, the gap between the institutions and citizens will further widen. Business as usual is a recipe for disaster. But how can the EU strike the right balance among the different interests of European states? Practical solutions are urgently needed and must be spelled out to the public, but there is also a need for trailblazing ideas. It doesn’t help that Brussels and the Member States are having to take their fate into their own hands at a time when they are largely unprepared to cope with the incipient collapse of the current international order – especially following the G7 meeting in Canada on ­­

Impressum The European − Security and Defence Union ProPress Publishing Group Bonn/Berlin

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9 May 2018, which the US president torpedoed with his trademark tweets, bringing into sharp focus once again his determined efforts to undermine the rules-based international order and destabilise the EU. Shifts in the global trade and security Hartmut Bühl framework call for European realpolitik.

They also call for a realistic assessment of US economic and military power in light of the fact that the current occupant of the White House will have to pack his bags in just under seven years at the latest. Another seven years is not much more than one legislative period of the European Parliament. That is not a reassuring prospect, but it does set a time limit.

In the face of these global upheavals and crises at home, it is important for Europe to address two crucial issues that could, if solved, give it fresh momentum and pull the rug from under nationalist populist movements across the continent: security and defence. These are enshrined in Europe’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and it is high time to flesh it out and give it real substance, particularly against the background of a possible paradigm shift in US security policy and the US attitude towards NATO. A decisive factor for Europe’s security, and the way electorates perceive it, would be a common guarantee of Europe’s external borders.

How else can Europe be perceived as a strong player if it cannot protect its own borders with respect to human rights and migration policies based on burden sharing? A moral condemnation of populism is not enough.

Instead, we must combat its causes.

2019 may be a decisive year for Europe. If Europe is to survive, it must virtually re-invent itself!

Photo: private, LISphoto.com

Europe at a crossroads

Publisher and Editor-in-Chief: Hartmut Bühl, Brussels Deputy Editor-in-Chief: Nannette Cazaubon, Paris; E-Mail: nannette.cazaubon@magazine-the-european.com Editor: Alexa Keinert, Berlin; E-mail: editor.esdu@gmail.com Publishing House: ProPress Verlagsgesellschaft mbH President ProPress Publishing Group: R. Uwe Proll Layout: Beate Dach, SpreeService- und Beratungsgesellschaft mbH, Berlin Print: WIRmachenDRUCK GmbH, Backnang The European − Security and Defence Union Magazine is published by the ProPress Publishing Group. The ProPress Publishing Group is the organiser of the congress on European Security and Defence (Berlin Security Conference), the European Police Congress and the European Congress on Disaster Management.

For further information about the magazine and the congresses please visit www.magazine-the-european.com Subscription: This magazine is published in Brussels and Berlin.

The copy price is 16 Euro: 3 copies for one year: 42 Euro (EU subscription) 3 copies for one year: 66 Euro (International subscription) including postage and dispatch (3 issues) © 2018 by ProPress Publishing Group Bonn/Berlin A magazine of the Behörden Spiegel Group

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

17–50

Vol. No. 30

Content 3 6

MAIN TOPIC

Climate change

Editorial, Hartmut Bühl News, Nannette Cazaubon

8–16 In the Spotlight

The European Union at a crossroads

A global security challenge

GLOBAL CHALLENGES 18

19

23

8

10

11

Mauro Petriccione, Brussels The European Union’s action on climate protection 2018 is a crucial year Federico Fabbrini, Dublin EU-UK security cooperation after Brexit: opportunities but challenges A double paradox Mete Coban and Stephen Kinnock MP, London Let young people have a say Europe and the UK after Brexit

14

Rachel Suissa, Haifa

Israel’s perceptions of threat in an unstable geostrategic environment

The Iran deal is only one solution

16

26

28

30

32

Documentation UN Climate Change Annual Report 2017 Interview with Louise van Schaik, The Hague The Planetary Security Initiative Reducing impacts emanating from environmental stresses Janani Vivekananda, Berlin Climate change, conflict and crisis in Lake Chad Climate change is a risk multiplier Marcus DuBois King, Washington, D.C. Violent extremism and the weaponization of water in a changing climate The footprint of water stress is expanding Sinéad O’Sullivan, Washington, D.C. We must prepare and react to climate and security risks through space technologies Earth observation: a tool for security Greta Nielsen, Bonn Armed forces and the challenges of climate change Climate change in military strategies Documentation High-level event ”Climate, Peace and Security: The Time for Action”

Short interview with Michael Singh, Washington D.C. Trump’s uppercut to transatlantic relations The Alliance has always survived

Photos (cover): © Francesco Scatena, stock.adobe.com; European Commission (left); Barbara Frommann, b.frommann@foto-style.de (right) ; David Holt, CC BY 2.0,

4

Content

ENERGY 34

37

Interview with Franz Untersteller MdL, Stuttgart The Under2 Coalition: how climate protection should work Achieving the climate targets Maroš Šefčovič, Brussels The Energy Union: boosting resilience, supporting innovation, empowering people Energy transition becomes a reality

39

Martin Schuster, Winterbach

How to adapt energy solutions to the needs of each country

The decentralisation of energy supply

42

Andreas Renner, Karlsruhe The energy providers’ commitment to climate protection Energy goals need to be more stringent

DEVELOPMENT 44

46

49

Bärbel Dieckmann, Bonn Reducing the impact of climate damage

51–62 Security & defence

Cooperation in unpredictable times 52

56

61

62

Jürgen Weigt, Strasbourg The foundation of interoperability is mutual confidence Human factors are key Interview with Gerald Knaus, Berlin Did NATO’s intervention in the Balkans work?

What are the lessons for today?

Ioan Mircea Pascu MEP, Brussels/Strasbourg European Defence: the time to act Guest Commentary Publication “Defence: Europe’s Awakening”, Policy Paper, Robert Schuman Foundation

Judith Helfmann-Hundack / Peggy Schulz, Hamburg A new compact for a better life and peace in Africa Global-solutions-to-global-challenges Gisbert Dreyer, Berlin Perspectives for climate-change stricken Africa The way ahead together with Europe

“The European − Security and Defence Union” is the winner of the 2011 European Award for Citizenship, Security and Defence Flickr.com (page 4); pixabay; URSfoto, pixelio.de; NASA (middle page 4-5); Eurocorps (page 5 right)

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

EU PRESIDENCY

Austria’s priorities for the Union On 1st July, Austria took over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union from Bulgaria for the second half of 2018. The motto of the Austrian Presidency is ‘A Europe that protects’. The focus of the new Presidency will be on security and the fight against illegal migration; securing prosperity and competitiveness through digitalisation; and stability in the European neighbourhood.

At the opening ceremony in the Alpine town of Schladming, in the presence of Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and European Council President Donald Tusk, Austrian Federal Chancellor Sebastian Kurz said that Austria, as a bridge-builder, wants to make sure that

Opening ceremony of the Austrian EU Presidency, 30.6.2018. From

the EU is strong.

left to right: Donald Tusk, President of the European Council, Boyko

The Austrian Presidency Programme is available via its website:

Borissov, Bulgarian Prime Minister, Sebastian Kurz, Austrian Federal

> Web: www.eu2018.at

Chancellor

Photo: © European Union

EU COOPERATION

The end of a name dispute On 12 June, Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) reached an historic accord with Greece to finally resolve the dispute over its name. The name issue has disrupted relations between the two neighbour countries for decades, because Greece has objected to the FYROM’s use of the name Macedonia. The new official name will be “North Macedonia”, but until the deal – which a huge part of the Greek population opposes – is ratified by the parliaments of both countries, the EU will continue using the name FYROM. The end of the dispute with Greece could pave the way for the country to be included in an enlargement of the European Union and NATO, which has so far been vetoed by Greece. At the end of the ceremony, FYROM’s Prime Minister

Signing ceremony at Prespa Lake. From left to right: High Represent-

Zoran Zaev removed his tie to give it to Greek Prime Minister Alexis

ative Federica Mogherini, Johannes Hahn, European Commissioner

Tsipras. The latter, known for not wearing ties, has promised to wear

for European Neighbourhood Policy & Enlargement Negotiations,

one only when Greece secures an alleviation of its debt.

Zoran Zaev, Prime Minister of FYROM, Alexis Tsipras, Greek Prime Minister

Photo: © European Union

Obituary On 9 May 2018, our dear long-term colleague and translator Mary Zulke passed away at the age of 64 after battling a severe illness. Through her profound expertise, her open-mindedness and extraordinary linguistic intuition, Mary significantly contributed to turning this magazine into a notable publication. Her discretion, humility, gentleness but also her fine sense of humour will be greatly missed.

The ESDU Team Team meeting with Mary Zulke (right) in Normandy, October 2016

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News

MAIN TOPIC: CLIMATE CHANGE

SECURITY AND DEFENCE

The global temperature continues to rise

EU Intervention Initiative signed off

According to NASA, the planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.1 ˚C since the late 19th century. Most of the warming has occurred in the past 35 years, largely driven by increased carbon dioxide and other man-made emissions into the atmosphere. For 2018, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) reported that record warmth was observed across parts of Europe, North America, and Asia, as well as the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans.

Extreme weather events also continued during the first part of the year with unusually heavy rainfall in Bangladesh, adding to the misery of hundreds of thousands of refugees. Floods affected also many other people and killed dozens in East Africa.

Somalia, Djibouti, Yemen and Oman were hit by rare tropical cyclones. Pakistan suffered successive heatwaves, while sand and dust storms in India killed several hundred people. In Scandinavia and the Baltic region unusually high temperatures and lack of rainfall posed a risk of wildfires whereas other parts of Europe have seen new daily rainfall records (as in France).

The Caribbean, still trying to recover from the devastating 2017 hurricane season, prepares for yet another season...

On 25 June, during the Foreign Affairs Council in Luxembourg dealing with the issue of European security and defence, the Defence Ministers from Belgium, United Kingdom, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, French Minister of Defence, Florence Parly, Luxemburg, Portugal with her German counterpart Ursula von and Spain signed a der Leyen during the meeting of EU defence Letter of Intent to ministers on 25 June in Luxembourg. establish a European

Photo: © European Union military force for rapid deployment in crisis scenarios near Europe’s borders. This initiative, based on French President Emmanuel Macron’s speech at the Sorbonne in September 2017, will not be part of EU defence structures, such as Permanent Structured Cooperation ­(PESCO). It has won the backing of the UK which seeks to maintain defence ties after Brexit, something that seems ensured with this initiative. The same applies to Denmark which does not participate in the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP). NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who took part in the EU defence ministers’ meeting, said: “I welcome this initiative, because I believe it can strengthen the readiness of our forces.” > Web: https://tinyurl.com/y8vrs489

©: Peter Slama

NATO–EU Joint declaration

TO OUR READERS We decided to dedicate this edition’s main topic to the urgent issue of climate change. We invited personalities from politics and EU institutions, climate experts, and people from NGOs involved in development projects, to explore how environmental stress and climate change impacts are linked to security risks – ranging from the fight over scare resources and the weaponisation of water to migration and radicalisation – and act as a risk multiplier in already fragile regions. Furthermore, we focus on the question of how intelligent development policies and projects can prevent climate change impacts or help people to better adapt to them. We also aim to show how the energy sector has to adapt to help in reducing CO2 emissions and reaching the Paris Agreement targets.

On 10 July, a day before the beginning of the NATO Summit in Brussels, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker signed a new Joint Declaration on cooperation between NATO and the European Union. The Declaration states that NATO and the EU are strengthening cooperation in a range of areas, including military mobility, counter-terrorism, resilience to chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear-related risks, and promoting the Women, Peace and Security agenda. > Web: https://tinyurl.com/ycc48zch > See the chapter Security & Defence beginning p. 51 which includes an interview with the Commanding General of the Eurocorps, Jürgen Weigt, on interoperability (pp. 52-54). > See also the interview with Balkan expert Gerald Knaus, Chairman of the European Stability Initiative, on how NATO-led multinational forces succeeded in bringing stability to the Western Balkans region.

> See our main topic on Climate Change pp. 17-50

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

In the Spotlight

+++ Climate Action +++

2018 is a crucial year for global climate action

The European Union’s action on climate protection

by Mauro Petriccione, Director-General, DG Climate Action, European Commission, Brussels

F

foundations for achieving our pledge to reduce GHG emissions by at least 40% by 2030 compared is Director General of DG Clito 1990. To meet this goal and mate Action at the Europeour 2030 targets on renewables an Commission since March and energy efficiency, the EU 2018. Born 1957 in Taranto, has drawn up a comprehensive he graduated in Law from package of policies and measures the University of Bari (1982), Photo: © EU across the whole economy, includobtained a LL.M. from the ing a reform of the EU emissions London School of Economics (1986), and then trading system (EU ETS) and 2030 joined the European Commission (1987). Prior to targets for all EU Member States his current role he was Deputy-Director General to reduce emissions in sectors of DG Trade (from 2014). He has served as Chief outside the EU ETS including transMeeting the Paris rules Negotiator for the EU-Canada Comprehensive port, buildings and agriculture.

The European Union (EU) has been at Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), the EU-­ Our 2030 climate and energy the forefront of global climate action Vietnam Free Trade Agreement and the EU-Japan framework is not just about for many years. Reducing greenhouse Economic Partnership Agreement. meeting targets, it is about enagas (GHG) emissions and transforming bling Europe to capitalise on the our economy are top priorities for the economic and social opportunities offered by the low-carbon current European Commission, while we are also working hard transition. And we are not only looking to 2030 – it is part of to make our economies and societies sustainable and resilient our vision to make the EU a true low-carbon economy by 2050. to climate change impacts.

At the request of EU leaders, the Commission will put forward a 2018 is a crucial year for global climate action. In 2015, the Parproposal for a new EU long-term strategy for reducing emisis Agreement parties agreed to finalise detailed rules for implesions later this year. menting the landmark deal by the end of this year. Parties face the tough task of adopting this Paris ‘rulebook’ at the COP24 summit in December in Katowice, Poland. Clear and compreThe ability to adapt to climate change hensive rules are vital for turning our shared commitment and Alongside reducing GHG emissions, the EU is committed to invision into real collective action – and it is in the interest of all creasing our ability to adapt to climate change. The severe heat sides, developed and developing countries alike and most of all waves and forest fires that hit southern Europe last summer those most vulnerable to climate change. are a stark reminder of the importance of preparing for climate Since the Paris Agreement, the EU has worked hard to lay the change. The EU Adaptation Strategy of 2013 encourages adaptation action at national, regional and local levels, provides guidance and information for Member States and tracks progress, as well as promoting EU funding for adaptation measures. 25 Member States now have a national adaptation strategy and thousands of cities across Europe have committed to climate action, with adaptation as a growing Mauro Petriccione element. Climate action is also now integrated into all major EU funding programmes.

rom drought-damaged harvests to vanishing coastlines, adverse climate change impacts are already being felt across the world, and pressures on our planet are increasing. Climate change can multiply threats in the field of peace and security – recent years show that extreme weather, resource scarcity and food production volatility can exacerbate local and regional tensions, leading to conflict, migration and global security consequences.

Mauro Petriccione

change is clearly not a conventional “Climate security threat and addressing it will require a

comprehensive and integrated approach, across all levels of governance.”

8

+++ Climate Action +++

High-level event “Climate, Security and Peace: the Time for Action”, Brussels, 22.6.2018. On the left: HR/VP Federica Mogherini and Commissioner for Climate Action and Energy, Miguel Arias Cañete

A forthcoming evaluation of the EU strategy will allow us to assess its implementation and reflect on lessons learned, with a view to increasing resilience at all levels.

EU action on climate change does not stop at our borders. The EU and its Member States are fully committed to achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Since the US administration announced its intention to withdraw from the agreement, we have stepped up policy dialogue and cooperation with all global partners, as well as continuing to support mitigation and adaptation measures, including capacity-building and technology transfer for countries most in need. Together, the EU and its Member States are the biggest providers of climate finance, supplying over  20 billion in 2016 alone.

The climate change-security nexus Climate action and climate diplomacy are key components of wider EU external action and cooperation. EU leaders recently vowed to address the destabilising effects and risks of climate change and the nexus between climate change and security in policy dialogue, conflict prevention, development and humanitarian action and disaster risk strategies. The EU continues to promote global action on this issue through the G7, G20 and all UN systems, and has urged the UN Security Council to increase its focus on the climate-security nexus.

The EU’s Global Strategy for foreign and security policy states that while security and defence are essential for giving the EU a credible role in the world, their full strength and value are only fulfilled when deployed alongside other policies with important external aspects, including climate. Climate change is also one of ten risk factors included in the EU’s Conflict Early Warning System. The importance of policy and operational linkages between climate and security was the subject of a recent high-­

Photo: © European Union , 2018 / Photo: Lukasz Kobus

level conference hosted by EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini. The event of 22 June brought together politicians, experts and civil society to discuss ongoing and emerging threats posed by climate change and ways forward to safeguard these linkages, in Europe and worldwide. (See pp. 32-33)

Improving resilience to climate-related shocks Well-designed development and humanitarian programmes can also help states and communities to build economic, governance, and social capacities and improve resilience to climate-related shocks. The EU has aligned its development objectives with the 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda and played a key role in the adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. To increase climate resilience in local communities worldwide, non-state actors have a key role to play. They know the local context and know which adaptation actions can best contribute to building resilience. The EU is a strong and active supporter of the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate and Energy, the world’s biggest coalition of cities and local governments committed to ambitious climate mitigation and adaptation action.

Climate change is clearly not a conventional security threat and addressing it will require a comprehensive and integrated approach, across all levels of governance. Its adverse effects are already a harsh reality today – and left unchallenged they could not only undo the development improvements made so far, but pose a fundamental threat to our future peace and prosperity.

The EU is as committed as ever to working with all partners and stakeholders to make the global journey towards sustainable and climate-resilient societies a successful and inclusive one. > See our main chapter on climate change (pp. 17-50)

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

In the Spotlight

+++ Brexit +++

A double paradox

EU-UK security cooperation after Brexit: opportunities but challenges

by Federico Fabbrini, Professor of EU Law & Director of Brexit Institute, Dublin City University, Dublin

S

ecurity and defence policy represents one of the key pillars of the future partnership currently being envisioned between the EU and UK. At the moment, no deal has yet been reached between them on an orderly withdrawal from the EU, due to persistent disagreement regarding Northern Ireland: while both parties are committed to avoiding a return to a hard border of the past,

the Commission proposal for a backstop that would keep Northern Ireland1 in the EU internal market and customs union has not been accepted by the UK. Nevertheless, both the UK and the EU have repeatedly voiced their interest in maintaining cooperation in the field of foreign policy, external security and defence (as well as in the field of internal security and law enforcement) after Brexit.

UK’s enthusiasm in coope­rating with the “The EU in the fields of CFSP and CSDP post-Brexit – and the openness of the EU in welcoming these UK requests – reveals a double paradox.”

A pillar of future EU-UK relations On the one hand, the UK has strongly pushed for an earlier agreement with the EU on a security deal. On 17 February 2018, UK Prime Minister Theresa May, speaking at the Mu-

Federico Fabbrini nich Security Conference, reaffirmed the UK’s commitment toward European security through NATO and expressed her wish to conclude a security treaty with the EU2. Later, the UK government published a presentation outlining the details of a comprehensive UK-EU security partnership.3 On the other hand, the EU has been fairly open toward the idea of agreeing on a bespoke security deal with the UK. On 14 March 2018, the European Parliament singled-out “foreign policy, security cooperation and defence cooperation” as one of the four pillars of future EU-UK relations.4 On 23 March 2018, the European Council affirmed its interest in pursuing “a strong EU-UK cooperation in the fields of foreign, security and defence policy”, built on dialogue, consultation, coordination, exchange of information, and cooperation mechanisms.5

Two Paradoxes

UK Prime Minister Theresa May speaking at the 2018 Munich Security Conference Photo: securityconference, MSC / Kuhlmann

10

The UK’s enthusiasm in cooperating with the EU in the fields of CFSP and CSDP post-Brexit – and the openness of the EU in welcoming these UK requests – reveals a double paradox.

The first paradox is the fact that, after the decision to leave the EU, the UK seems to have all of a sudden discovered the added value of common European defence and security beyond NATO.6 It is an open secret that the UK exercised its influence to prevent the emergence of a real European defence union. Despite be-

+++ Brexit +++

Federico Fabbrini is Full Professor of European law at the School of Law & Government of the Dublin City University and the Principal of the Brexit Institute. He holds a PhD in Law from the European University Institute and previously had academic positions in the Netherlands and Denmark. He regularly engages with EU institutions and national governments and is the author, among others of “Economic Governance in Europe” (Oxford University Press 2016) as well as the editor of “The Law & Politics of Brexit” (Oxford University Press 2017). http://dcubrexitinstitute.eu/people/federico-fabbrini/

Photo:© AGENZIA 3P

ing one of the few military powers in Europe, it has hardly ever deployed its resources for the benefit of EU-led operations.

So it is no small irony that when the UK is leaving – and when the EU, without the UK veto is finally pushing forward with the Permanent Structured Cooperation in defence (PESCO) – the UK wants to rejoin.

A second paradox, however, is the fact that – as the openness of the EU institutions suggest – a special UK-EU partnership in the field of security and defence may well be reached. In fact, it actually seems more likely that the EU and the UK will be able to reach a deal in the field of security and defence – where interests in London and Brussels look deeply converging – rather than on trade.7 This is quite surprising considering that defence is usually regarded as an area of ‘high politics’ – where agreement is more difficult than in trade, which is ‘low politics’.

ECJ jurisdiction: Sanctions’ policy constitutes a perfect example of this. Targeted sanctions against individuals and foreign governments has become a primary tool of EU foreign and security policy in the last few decades, and the UK has been a prominent player in this field, with UK evidence underpinning on average roughly 50% of EU sanctions. At the same time, the Lisbon Treaty has now codified in Article 275 TFEU the ECJ jurisdiction regarding the review of the legality of restrictive measures against natural and legal persons.9 Even in the field of CFSP and CSDP, therefore, the European Court of Justice (ECJ) has a prominent role – which seems to clash with the proclaimed intention of the UK government to end the jurisdiction of the ECJ after Brexit. In conclusion, while it appears that both the UK and the EU are willing to work on a future external security and defence partnership, whether they are able to do so remains to be seen.

Legal constraints and challenges The renewed interest of the EU and the UK in the field of external security and defence is welcome, particularly considering that the UK is one of the few European states meeting NATO spending targets.8 However, this should not obfuscate the challenges that the development of a special partnership in these fields will pose. In fact, from a legal viewpoint, it is clear that the deeper the partnership, the greater the requirements for the UK to comply with the EU constitutional rules will be.

EU legal constraints: While simple dialogue and ad hoc cooperation between the EU and the UK would certainly be feasible, any effort to deepen it would meet EU legal constraints and inevitably bring up the interplay with the framework for future EU-UK relations applicable outside the field of CFSP and CSDP – including the contentious issues of internal market, procurement and competition rules, human rights protection and broader mechanisms for enforcement and dispute resolution.

1 See further Federico Fabbrini, “Institutional Consequences of a ‘Hard Brexit’”, study commissioned by the European Parliament Constitutional Affairs Committee, May 2018.

2 Theresa May, Speech at the Munich Security Conference, 17 February 2018.

3 UK Government, Framework for the UK-EU Security Partnership, ppt presentation, May 2018.

4 European Parliament resolution of 14 March 2018 on the framework of the future EU-UK relations P8_TA(2018)69.

5 European Council Guidelines, 23 March 2018, EUCO XT 20001/18, §13. ii).

6 Luigi Lonardo, “EU Common Foreign and Security Policy After Brexit”, DCU Brexit Institute working paper No. 4/2018.

7 Joris Larik, “The New Transatlantic Trigonometry”, DCU Brexit Institute working paper No. 3/2018 paper No. 2/2018.

8 See Federico Fabbrini, “Do NATO Obligations Trump European Budgetary Constraints”, DCU Brexit Institute working paper No. 2/2018.

9 See further Federico Fabbrini & Vicky Jackson (eds.), Constitutionalism Across Borders in the Struggle Against Terrorism (Elgar 2016)

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

In the Spotlight

+++ Brexit +++

The future of Europe and the UK after Brexit

Let young people have a say

by Mete Coban, CEO My Life My Say, and Stephen Kinnock MP, Chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group for a Better Brexit for Young People, London

23

June 2016, the day of the referendum on the United Kingdom’s (UK) membership of the European Union (EU) that supposedly divided a nation into many opposing factions: Remainers and Leavers, London and other-place, city and countryside dwellers. The most striking being the division between the younger and older generation. Indeed, whereas only a third of over 50s voted to remain, 18-24 year olds overwhelmingly voted to stay (75%).

vigorous debate about what “Wekindneed of Britain we want in the future,

The shock after the poll

My Life My Say, born in 2016, proudly champions the voice of 4.5 million young Brits in the Brexit negotiations. We are a youth-led, national, non-partisan movement on a mission to secure a better Brexit for young people by creating safe spaces for dialogue on- and offline, as well as carrying out research and advocacy work with decision-makers. Along with other events, MLMS’ Brexit Cafes taking place across the UK have been a salient tool in gathering opinions on the key issues affecting young people today.

Through our All-Party Parliamentary Group for a Better Brexit for Young People, chaired by Stephen Kinnock, we have been able to create a bridge between young people and parliamentarians, enabling the youth to have a voice in the negotiations, as we believe this will secure a better Brexit.

rd

After polling day, many claims were made regarding the youth, such as their lack of turnout meaning they had no right to dispute the outcome, or that they were disenchanted with the process and had gained a ‘cannot-be-bothered’ disinterested attitude towards Brexit. These claims are countered by the voice of frustration from this same youth, who had an alternative message: young people will most likely feel the consequences of Brexit longer than any other age group and for this reason, should not be excluded from future conversations on matters concerning the EU referendum negotiations.

What do we want?

My Life My Say (MLMS) and the All-Party Parliamentary Group for a Better Brexit for Young People (APPG-BBYP) endeavour to ensure young people have a say on their future within the Brexit negotiations, regardless of how or whether they voted.

We strive to reject the claims of a divided post-Brexit nation, and are working towards cooperation for our common futures.

and we need to be able to disagree and persuade.”

Stephen Kinnock MP

A better Brexit for young people – how?

In October 2017, in partnership with the London School of Economics (LSE), we published a report on young people’s priorities for the upcoming Brexit negotiations – based on findings

What has happened so far?

2017

29.03.

Triggering of Article 50 by the British government

12

22.05.

Opening of the Article 50 negotiations (1st phase) The following negotiations focused on • citizens’ rights • the issue of Ireland • financial settlements

What are the latest developments?

08.12.

Opening of the 2nd phase of negotiations after sufficient progress had been made

2018

28.02.

Draft Withdrawal Agreement published by the European Commission Compromising declarations on • citizens’ rights • transitional arrangements • financial provisions • institutional provisions and a protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland

19.03.

Partial agreement on Withdrawal Agreemen EU and UK negotiators agreement on the legal text concerning: • citizens’ rights • financial settlement • transition period • separation issues

text for the nwt reached

+++ Brexit +++

from a series of focus groups across the UK – that highlighted not only the generational gap, but also a distrust of many political and media institutions. Furthermore, the findings show that young people want to retain the same opportunities and rights that they have as EU members, and are worried about the rising discrimination and the harmful effects of potential anti-immigration policies.

The priorities given by these young people for Brexit negotiations remain: improving education opportunities, economic growth, retaining inter-connectedness through international relations and generally a need for their voice and concerns to be listened to and acted upon by politicians and policy makers.

The APPG-BBYP supported the report by its insight and recommendations, and has the potential to develop into a highly effective method of scrutinising government negotiations. This will enable it to influence the trajectory and outcome of Brexit, ensuring it corresponds to young people’s views for the future of the country. Dialogue is encouraged between parliamentarians and young people, and policy areas and issues can be influenced.

Stephen Kinnock MP has been the Labour Member of Parliament for Aberavon since 2015.

He is currently on the Exiting the EU Select Committee and the EU Scrutiny Committee, as well as being the Chair of Photo: www.mylifemysay.org.uk

the Better Brexit for Young People APPG. Previously, Stephen was the Director

and Head of Europe and Central Asia at the World Economic Forum, having worked for the British Council for more than 12 years.

Mete Coban is the Chief Executive of My Life My Say and the youngest ever elected Councillor for Stoke Newington/ London Borough of Hackney. He is best known for his work in helping set-up the All-Party Parliamentary Photo: twitter@metecoban92

Group on a Better Brexit for Young People.

Previously, he worked on the Mayor of

London Sadiq Khan’s selection campaign leading on youth

Our hope

engagement.

MLMS believe that the current proliferation of a discordant, resentful and divisive sentiment between generations is not conducive to the future of Britain. Our projects – notably launching the Common Futures Forum, which aims to bring together all the discordances named at the beginning of this article – illustrate the view we have that the sum of cooperation of a diversity of people will enable the best possible outcome for Brexit. In this way, policy makers, by not including the generation that will be the most affected by the outcome of Brexit, are doing themselves and the country a disservice. The future of Europe and the UK will be in the hands of the current young generation eventually: they should therefore not only work with them but somewhat allow them to become the ‘decision makers’ for a better tomorrow.

19.06.

Joint statement by EU and UK negotiators on further progress achieved since March 2018

23.06.

Demonstration with over 100.000 people demanding vote on final Brexit deal in London

UK government should provide “The young people with an officially

recognised means to scrutinise and feed into the Brexit negotiation outcomes.”

LSE report recommendation n°5

29.06.

European Council (Art. 50) meeting reminding of the lack of substantial progress on a backstop solution for Ireland/Northern Ireland

06.07.

UK government agrees on common plan for future negotiations with the EU Inter alia, the government wants the UK to remain part of the internal market for goods but will not allow free movement of services, capital and persons

08./09.07.

Ministers David Davis and Boris Johnson resign over “soft Brexit” envisioned by Theresa May in the so-called Chequers deal from July 6th

13

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

In the Spotlight

+++ Iran Deal +++

All the signatories of the JCPOA differ in their rationales, but choose the Iran Deal as one solution

Israel’s perceptions of threat in an unstable geostrategic environment

by Dr Rachel Suissa, University of Haifa, Haifa

S

o far, the consequences of the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) on Israel’s national security can be regarded as marking the start of a new era in the Middle East, one that has provided unique opportunities to establish a balance of power based on Israel’s alliances with Arab Sunni countries.

This development is a synergetic irreversible strategic trend that will not shift, even if Iran announces the complete abandonment of its nuclear program.

Opportunities and risks An indirect implication of this opportunity, going beyond mere recognition of Israel’s existence by dominant Middle Eastern states, is the long term benefit for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict when Arab states take a dominant role in re-establishing a peace process. However, until this happens, the muted reaction of the Arab Sunni world to an event such as the Jerusalem declaration is explained by its deep historical enmity with Iran.

These consequences of the JCPOA might reveal the signatories’ strategic weaknesses. They cannot envision the significance of this development which, for the time being, has removed the issue of Palestinian statehood from the global agenda while we all wait for Trump’s peace plan.

The risks Israel faces in terms of the Iran deal paradoxically indicate that it is the opportune moment to switch to risk assessment. This stands at the centre of Trump’s strategic justification to withdraw from the deal. It will not add to the unrest of the region more than the challenges posed by the eve of the Syrian war, especially under the auspices of a rational super

Dr Rachel Suissa is an Assistant Professor at the National Security Program in the School of Political Sciences at the University of Haifa, and a research fellow in different academic affiliations due to her multidisciplinary Photo: private

professional background: Center for Public Management and Policy (U-Haifa), the

department of Geography (U-Haifa), Haifa Center for European and German Studies. Her research interests include security and military studies, intelligence cooperation, strategic alliances, cyber security and EU foreign and security policy.

14

power like Russia. But, surprisingly, the EU has declared that its economic interests are above everything else and that it is committed to the Iran deal. The tumult caused by the American withdrawal might exacerbate instability in crucial gaps that already exist in the relationships between the EU and its Member States.

Containment is not the solution Mark Pompeo’s twelve conditions that the United States considers prerequisites for any firm agreement with the Islamic Republic include giving up ballistic missiles, ending support for terror and halting threats against Israel, amongst other demands. In principle, all signatories agree with these, however they differ in their foreign and security policy approach. The Obama presidency as well as all the other signatories chose a containment policy vis-à-vis Iran in the hope that a neo-liberal approach would eventually divert it from the behaviour condemned in Mark Pompeo’s requirements. However, a geostrategic approach to containment reveals the need for careful analysis when dealing with Israel and the Middle East and a better, relative concept of rational choice rather than international agreements of do’s and don’ts. All the signatories to the Iran deal differ in their rationales, but chose it as one solution.

This might somehow explain the consensus among them about the deal as ”default”.

Building back deterrence As a rational actor, Israel’s relativity vis-à-vis the signatories, including the United States, is derived from its perceptions of threat as well as their synergies. Unlike the signatories, as stable geostrategic entities, Israel still perceives threats within existing geopolitical and geostrategic environments and is very much aware of the role it plays in Iran’s policy and strategic culture. Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran deal brings back the deterrence that the Obama presidency omitted. This will give Israel an international and regional proactive platform to call out Iran through a strategy of deterrence by denial, destabilising all the achievements it has reached so far. An added value in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s foreign policy is his deep understanding that his efforts in establishing deterrence by denial against Iran should be conducted at the level of traditional diplomacy vis-à-vis national states rather than NATO and the EU. Ignoring international and supranational

+++ Iran Ddeal +++

still perceives threats within existing geopolitical “Israel and geostrategic environments and is very much aware

organisations might endanger the EU rather than NATO. Nevertheless, Israel’s deterrence capability is very much dependent on a president who has declared ”America First”.

This is a process that cannot be achieved within one or even two American presidential terms, and thus it clearly contradicts the necessary element in building a stable and enduring deterrence vis-à-vis Iran. In addition to the new outline of American politics in which both Obama and Trump present a radicalisation of the two leading political platforms in the United States, Israel should not take American support for granted.

of the role it plays in Iran’s policy and strategic culture.”

Rachel Suissa

Israel’s diplomacy creating tensions in the EU The historical gaps between the EU and its Member States have now gone beyond the Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) whereas NATO is going through other trends that clearly differentiate it from the EU.

When Israel’s diplomacy is conducted through national platforms in Europe, this might add new tensions between the EU and its Member States in a crucial way, as political platforms undergo critical shifts in dominant EU Member States. There are many challenges and extensive gaps in establishing a common coherent foreign policy, amplified by Britain trying to take centre stage while managing its exit from the EU. Thus, logically, it seems that those who are committed to the agreement are most likely to be affected, especially when Trump’s economic and foreign policy discerns the opportunity to conduct a differentiated approach with European national states, by-passing relevant EU institutions.

15

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

In the Spotlight

+++ Iran Deal +++

The North Atlantic Alliance has survived previous sharp disagreements

Trump’s uppercut to transatlantic relations Interview with Michael Singh, Lane-Swig Senior Fellow/managing director, The Washington Institute, Washington, D.C.

T

he European: Mr Singh, your colleague Michael Eisenstadt’s plea in our last edition for US-EU cooperation on the Iran deal (JCPOA) will not be achievable. Trump’s decision to pull out of the treaty disregards the signatories of the JCPOA, making his solidarity addresses implausible. What could be the consequences for the North Atlantic Alliance?

Michael Singh: The North Atlantic Alliance has survived other sharp disagreements, and it will survive this one as well. European states have been angered by Washington’s abandonment of the JCPOA and of the US-initiated diplomacy to strengthen that agreement. The Trump administration was dissatisfied with it, and believes that the concerns of the agreement’s critics in Washington were ignored by those who negotiated it.

But both sides will find that they need one another now more than ever – American sanctions alone will not succeed without the cooperation of our allies, and European states still hope for American leadership in the Middle East to combat a range of threats, from ISIS-style terrorists to revisionist states like Iran and Russia. Of course, the US-Europe relationship goes well beyond the Middle East, and there is no issue or threat important enough to either side to simply discard it.

The European: Trump apparently wants to police industries by submitting them to US legislation. Europeans, who had become accustomed to faithful and reliable US-EU relations, are shocked. How can this be repaired?

Michael Singh: In reality, the power of so-called “secondary sanctions” is a reflection of the extent to which the American and European economies are intertwined, and the extent to which our large multinational companies operate across national boundaries. It is in the interest of both sides to be very careful in erecting obstacles to open trade and investment across the Atlantic, and when doing so to be fair and transparent. But it is also important to bear in mind that the disagreement between the US and Europe is not fundamentally one of economics. Europe does relatively little business with Iran, and most multinational firms would have stayed away in any event due to the many risks of doing business in Iran today. Instead, the dispute is over security – European states thought the JCPOA advanced their national security, and the Trump Administration disagreed. Having withdrawn from the deal and reimposed sanctions, the US will now be expected to present to its allies a strategy that will better address the security threat that both sides agree is a serious one. If it can make a compelling case, then working out a modus operandi on sanctions will be easier.

16

Michael Singh is the Lane-Swig Senior Fellow and managing director at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, and a former senior director for Middle East affairs at the White House from Photo: The Washington Institute

2005 to 2008.

The European: The European signatories of the JCPOA are trying, with Iran’s leaders, to keep the treaty alive. What would be the relevance of such a treaty without the US? Could such a compromise lead to the end of the security guarantee of the US towards its allies?

Michael Singh: The key question is whether Iran will choose to resume the nuclear activities it temporarily halted pursuant to the JCPOA. If it does, then European states have indicated they will join the US in reimposing sanctions; if not, then the basic framework of the JCPOA will likely remain in place for the time being, albeit without the participation of the United States. But neither scenario will spell the end of US-Europe security and economic cooperation, which by far eclipse the Iran issue in importance.

The European: Do you think that it is possible – though no one hopes for this – that the “America first” policy, which includes the nuclear issue, will soon turn against the US by downgrading its economy and lead to political isolation?

Michael Singh: Transatlantic relations are going through a difficult period, to be sure, and our disputes seem to be multiplying rather than diminishing at the moment. And in reality, the alliance has suffered for years from complacency and a lack of common purpose. Yet both Americans and Europeans will be far better off if we take the long view and prioritize the preservation of our alliance, which is fundamental to our shared security. The threats we face are increasingly global – terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, aggressive revisionist states, etc – and whatever the disagreements among us, we will have far more success if we face them together rather than individually. For the US, our alliances are not a detriment to American security, but essential to it.

The European: Thank you very much, Mr Singh, for this insight.

The interview was conducted by Editor-in-Chief Hartmut Bühl.

Climate Change

photo: © Image Source, stock.adobe.com

“Here in Europe, experience tells us that peace and security are not only about peace treaties and defence budgets. Peace has to be sustainable in time. And sustainable peace requires good jobs, decent access to natural resources, and sustainable development. Sustainable peace needs climate action […]

So let us keep this in mind: when we invest in the fight against climate change, we invest in our own security.”

Federica Mogherini, 22 June 2018

17

documentation

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

UN Climate Change Annual Report 2017 (Ed/nc, Paris) On 30 April 2018, UN Climate

During the conference, finan-

Change published its first-ever Annual Re-

cial commitments amounting

port. The report covers many areas of the

to almost USD 1 billion to tack-

2017 work of UN Climate Change, which

le climate change were made.

includes the UN Framework Convention

Building on the negotiations

on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Kyoto

over the years, we saw key

Protocol and the Paris Agreement, as well

decisions made by govern-

as their bodies, institutional arrangements,

ments, many of which broke

organs and the secretariat. The report

new ground. The Talanoa

also gives an outlook for the year ahead,

Dialogue, which will inform

including increasing the number of ratifi-

and inspire Parties as they

cations of the Doha Amendment to the

review their commitments

Kyoto Protocol so it can enter into force,

and revise them upwards.

the Talanoa Dialogue which will inform

The first-ever Gender Action

and inspire Parties as they increase their commitments, and adopting the outcomes

Plan, which will increase the Key elements of the 2015 Paris Agreement (COP21)

of the work programme of the Paris Agree-

Photo: © UN Climate Change/Annual Report 2017

participation of women in climate change responses.

The first-ever agreement on

ment at the end of 2018. at all levels, civil society, the private sector

agriculture and climate, which will address

Excerpt from the UN Climate Change Annual

and individuals are acting to limit global

both vulnerabilities and emissions in this

Report 2017:

temperature rise to agreed levels and to

key sector. The first-ever platform for indig-

“Our planet is warming. An astonishing 17

help vulnerable communities adapt to the

enous peoples and local communities, who

of the 18 warmest years on record have

effects of climate change we cannot avoid.

can now share their valuable perspectives

occurred in the twenty-first century. The

UN Climate Change’s mandate is to lead

on climate change. […]

past three years were the hottest since

and support the global community in this

There is much to do in 2018. We need

records began.

international response, with the Paris

to support Parties to increase pre-2020

With this warming comes climate change,

Agreement and the Convention being the

action. Those Parties that have not yet

causing extreme storms, droughts and

long-term vehicles for united global climate

done so should ratify the Doha Amendment

floods. We witnessed these climate disas-

action. […]

to the Kyoto Protocol. Parties should use

ters many times in 2017 and were shocked.

COP 23, presided over by Fiji, demonstrated

the Talanoa Dialogue as an opportunity

Yet, these are only the most dramatic and

that there is an unstoppable climate move-

to engage with one another and increase

visible impacts. Other upheavals range

ment supported by all sectors of society

ambition under the Paris Agreement. In

from reduced crop productivity to forced

across the globe. Almost 30,000 people

2018, it is critical that the outcomes of

migration. Climate change is the single

took part: Heads of State, ministers, del-

the Paris Agreement work programme are

biggest threat to life, security and pros-

egates from Parties, private sector and

adopted at COP 24 in Katowice to ensure

perity on Earth.

civil society leaders, representatives of

we are ready for the implementation of

Faced with the challenges of climate

international organizations, youth groups

the Agreement. […]

change, the United Nations, governments

and indigenous peoples, and many more.

Patricia Espinosa, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary, UN Climate Change

“

Annual Report (Highlights 2017)

In 2018, it is critical that the outcomes of the Paris Agreement work programme are adopted at COP24 in Katowice to ensure we are ready for the implementation of the Agreement.”

A web version of the Annual Report 2017 was launched on 27 June 2018. The new

Patricia Espinosa, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary

website includes videos, photos and infographics illustrating the key 2017 achievements and pointing to the future of the climate change process. > Web: https://bit.ly/2tFmprW

18

Reducing impacts emanating from environmental stresses

The Planetary Security Initiative

Interview with Louise van Schaik, Head of the Clingendael International Sustainability Centre and Project Lead of the Planetary Security Initiative, The Hague

The European: Ms van Schaik, you are the project lead of the Planetary Security Initiative (PSI) which was initiated by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2015. What was the motivation to unite five expert institutes from The Hague, Stockholm, Washington D.C. and Berlin in a consortium on this issue?

Louise van Schaik: When we started our initiative in 2015, the aspect of climate change involving security was already subject to debate in the US, but in Europe there was less awareness about its ongoing impacts, and the issue was more considered as a future risk. At that time, the Netherlands was campaigning for a seat on the UN Security Council knowing that climate change was a topic close to the heart of a lot of its members, as well as those of the UN General Assembly. It gave the Kingdom of the Netherlands, which also includes climate vulnerable islands in the Caribbean, and is below sea level for about a third of the country, opportunity to share its knowledge on climate adaptation policies, for instance climate smart agriculture, integrated water management, flood protection, etc.

The European: I understand that the Planetary Security Initiative fit in very well with ongoing policy priorities. How did the Clingendael Institute, for which you work, initiate the PSI?

Photo: © Planetary Security Initiative

Climate Change

Louise v. Schaik: The Dutch Foreign Affairs Ministry first organised a conference, but then they thought it would be a good idea to have additional activities – smaller events, a website, etc. – throughout the year in order to raise visibility. The Ministry identified potential organisations to implement this initiative and sent out a tender asking organisations to make proposals, underlining that they would like also to involve international partners.

The European: …to really make it a planetary initiative. The PSI puts forth the concept of “planetary security”: is this different to what is called for example climate-related security? And what does planetary security include?

Louise v. Schaik: The concept was invented by the Ministry.

The idea behind it is that several environmental pressures in the world could constitute possible security risks. PSI is not about climate change alone, but also about other environmental pressures. Let’s say the planetary boundaries idea allows a broader approach, because sometimes problems are not only related to climate change but also to other factors. Take the example of water scarcity. People sometimes debate whether it is related to climate change or not. You may see that the cause of water scarcity is not only climate change but that the impacts are similar. Very often, these issues are interrelated. For this reason, the concept of PSI is well selected.

The European: That’s convincing. PSI follows a multilateral, multi-sector and multi-disciplinary approach. How is this approach achieved?

19

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

change [...]. It is very European to combine development cooperation with climate change and security and development agendas.”

Louise van Schaik

Louise v. Schaik: We always try to involve people from the public and private sector, people from scientific research, think tanks, NGOs, but also public figures from defence, diplomacy, or development perspectives. We try to make sure that there is balance and diversity in terms of gender and nationality. The biggest challenge is always to get high-level policy makers.

The European: I imagine that it can be challenging to bring together people from those different backgrounds: how do participants of your events experience this approach? Is it always fruitful or are there also tensions?

Louise v. Schaik: The participants feel that these workshops are extremely valuable, because it is the opportunity for these different stakeholders to exchange best practices. But the challenge for us is to keep a balance regarding the subjects discussed, because the people we talk to are not always working daily on environmental issues, nor do they all have

Louise van Schaik

Photo: © Plantary Security Initiative

EU has a huge role “to The play regarding climate

a scientific background. For example, it is important that we don’t only talk about technical solutions for water infrastructure.

The European: An important output of the 2017 Planetary Security Conference was The Hague Declaration on Planetary Security (see graphic p. 22), which has been mentioned in the Council Conclusions on Climate Diplomacy in February 2018.

This non-legally binding declaration has been endorsed by 103 figures. Who are the signatories? And what actions and principles are set out in the declaration?

Louise v. Schaik: We wanted a number of influential people to sign the declaration, but we also wanted it to be open to everybody. That is what we achieved: the signatories include ministers as well as people from scientific institutes or NGOs, and also individual people like passionate students. We were very pleased that the declaration was immediately discussed in the informal meeting of the UN Security Council on 15 December 2017 in New York, and that a reference has been made to it in the February 2018 Council Conclusions. It’s a non-binding document, but it puts the spotlight on regions identified by the PSI.

Louise van Schaik is the Head of the Clingendael International Sustainability Centre and a Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute in The Hague. She is also a visiting professor at the College of Europe in Bruges and coordinator of Clingendael Research on the EU in the World. Ms van Schaik has a Master’s degree in Public Administration from Leiden University (2003) and a PhD in Political Science from the KU Leuven (2010).

She has published various policy reports and books and is Project Lead of the Planetary Security Initiative.

20

The European: In the Declaration you specifically focus on the – euphemistically said – challenging situations in the Lake Chad region, Mali and Iraq. What are the problems there, and have there been positive developments in those regions since the declaration?

Louise v. Schaik: Yes and no. The declaration has definitely helped to put the issue higher on the agenda. In Mali especially, there is increasing attention to natural resource management, conflict and migration. In Iraq, there is more attention to the water issue. In the Lake Chad region, where the situation is explosive, a climate change risk assessment

Climate Change

has been undertaken and it has also come to the attention of the UN Security Council and the G7. So we can say that putting these topics in our declaration has helped to get more political attention for it.

Planetary Security Initiative The Planetary Security Initiative (PSI) was launched by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2015 and it is now operated by a consortium of leading think tanks. These renowned institutes are the Clingendael Insitute (The Hague), adelphi (Berlin), The Center

The European: What are the next steps for the PSI? Louise v. Schaik: The aim for this year is to track the progress made on the six objectives of the Hague Declaration. What actions were undertaken to include climate change more prominently in debates on international migration; how was climate change institutionalised and entrenched in organisations’ agendas; how is the work on this subject progressing in the UN Security Council, etc.?

for Climate and Security (Washington, D.C.), The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The objectives of the PSI are to: • enhance political involvement in climate-security; • strengthen the knowledge-policy interface by consolidating a global, cross-sectoral and inter-disciplinary community of practice; • develop and promote policies and good practice to support govern­ ments, the private sector, as well as implementing agencies to secure better peace in regions affected by climate change, and

The European: So you will keep putting the pressure on.

Louise v. Schaik: Yes! We are already preparing next year’s conference with the theme #Doable. The idea is to show that it is possible not only to think about climate security in abstract terms, but to consider how defence activities, development projects, and diplomacy can be done differently by taking this aspect into account.

The European: #Doable sounds pleasingly optimistic to me.

What is the source of this optimism?

Louise v. Schaik: A large part of the climate change agenda is on avoiding climate impacts. But we know that it is a tremendous challenge to get the global temperature below 2 degrees

Climate change is modifying rainfall patterns in Europe

• operate as a permanent platform for international cooperation on planetary security. > Web: www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org

Celsius as outlined in the Paris Agreement targets. And even if this succeeds, there will still remain some climate impacts.

We have to think about how to deal with climate impacts and how to manage our resources wisely. For example, should we think of planning a refugee camp in a region where you know that in ten years the temperature in the summer will be 50 degrees? This will only cause more problems. There are a lot of things that are “doable” if we ask the right questions.

Photo: pixabay

21

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

i Planetary Security Conference 2019 #Doable The 4th Planetary Security Conference (PSC) will take place in The Hague on 19 and 20 February 2019 under the title #Doable. The aim of the yearly conference is to strengthen a community of practice around climate and security, bolster knowledge, and forge an agenda for action.

The previous PSC edition was attended by over 300 representatives from governments, international organisations, think tanks, NGOs, academia and the private sector from more than 70 countries. In 2019, the conference aims to make an impact with ideas for practical and pragmatic deliverables. These will feed into the UN Climate Summit in New York in September 2019.

> Web: https://bit.ly/2Jxj17y

The European: Is the PSI also working together with NGOs on the ground in these regions?

Louise v. Schaik: We do not have the budget and the capacity nor the ambition to implement projects, but we try to encourage partners to work with us and to act on the ground. The PSI provides a dialogue forum and gives policy recommendations.

As regards for example the recent high-level conference entitled “Climate, Peace, and Security: The Time for Action”, convened by HR/VP Federica Mogherini (22 June), we gave advice regarding the topics of the conference. One of the concepts of

The Hague Declaration on Planetary Security With the The Hague Declaration, the Planetary Security Initiative sets out an agenda for action which builds upon and seeks to contextualise the priority themes and geographic regions of the December 2017 Planetary Security Conference. The declaration defines six areas for concrete steps: 1) Creating an institutional home for climate security

2) Coordinating migration and climate change responses

3) Promoting urban resilience

4) Supporting joint risk assessment in Lake Chad

5) Strengthening climate and conflict sensitive development in Mali

6) Supporting sustainable water strategies in Iraq

> Web: www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org/signees Graphic: ESDU/Beate Dach

22

the event – “the responsibility to prepare” – was launched with our American consortium partner The Center for Climate and Security, and our German partner adelphi gave advice to the EU on how to get the best results out of the conference. Additionally, we at Clingendael organised an event with the Political and Security Committee Ambassadors that prepared for a meeting of foreign affairs ministers on what the EU can do in Iraq and Mali the evening before the event.

The European: This event you are mentioning put climate change high on the EU’s agenda. What role do you see for Europe in the future?

Louise v. Schaik: The EU has a huge role to play regarding climate change, because the Union has a joined-up approach: it is very European to combine, for example, development cooperation with climate change and security and development agendas. Furthermore, the issue of migration is high on the European agenda, so if you want to have an alternative to a very strict migration policy focusing on how to stop migrants, you have to look at the root causes of migration. Climate adaption projects like planting trees and restoring land for food production in Africa can prevent people from going to big cities or Europe. This is an interesting policy alternative, or at least a useful addition to all these restrictive measures the EU is taking. And of course, let’s not forget that the EU has a lot of financial instruments. Most probably climate change will be prominently present in the next multiannual financial budget from 2020 onwards.

The European: Ms van Schaik, thank you for this interview.

We wish you success for your work with the Planetary Security Initiative.

The interview was conducted by Alexa Keinert, Editor, The European – Security and Defence Union, Berlin

Climate Change

The changing climate plays a very real role in exacerbating and prolonging the existing crisis

by Janani Vivekananda, Senior Adviser, Climate Change and Peacebuilding, adelphi, Berlin

L

ake Chad is a geophysical and ecological miracle. Situated in the arid Sahel region, two large rivers create an oasis in an otherwise water scarce region. But today, the Lake Chad region is best known for armed conflict, Boko Haram and one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises.

Source : Janani Vivekananda/adelphi

Climate change, conflict and crisis in Lake Chad

the alleged shrinking of the lake as a driver of the conflict and intractability of the humanitarian emergency misses the real role of climate change. Indeed, current research demonstrates that global warming is not shrinking Lake Chad which grows and shrinks intra- and inter-annually1. Instead, it is the more changeable and unpredictable rainfall patterns – resulting from climate change – that are having the most impact on the resilience of the communities around the lake.

Climate change is a risk multiplier

The resulting resource scarcity, livelihood insecurity and extreme poverty have exacerbated tensions between pastoralists, farmers and fishers. These stresses are also taking place in the The roots of the current crisis same space where young people are vulnerable to recruitment The region is currently suffering the world’s largest humaniby non-state armed groups such as Boko Haram. The engagetarian crisis with approximately 10.7 million people in need of ment and retention of individuals in immediate humanitarian assistance. armed opposition groups feeds into While the current crisis was triggered armed conflict and contributes to wideby violence linked to armed groups Janani Vivekananda spread internal as well as cross-border such as Boko Haram, the situation has is a senior adviser for Clidisplacement – nurturing a vicious deep roots in longstanding developmate Change and Peacecycle of fragility and armed violence. mental challenges, namely widespread building at adelphi. She The impacts of climate change on inequality and decades of political marhas co-authored the 2015 communities around Lake Chad further ginalisation of the communities in the flagship report “A New Cliexacerbate these pressures. region. This has instilled an entrenched mate for Peace” dealing Photo: adelphi With support from UNDP (United sense of exclusion and lack of trust with climate change imNations Development Programme), between communities and government. pacts on fragile states. Ms Vivekananda has the Dutch and the German governAgainst this backdrop, the region led and conducted extensive field research, ments, adelphi is leading a landmark also faces significant environmental most notably across South Asia and in Africa. climate-fragility risk assessment of the stresses.

Prior to joining adelphi, she was the Head of Lake Chad region to better understand The changing climate plays a very real Environment, Climate Change and Security at these risks from the ground up. With a role in exacerbating and prolonging International Alert and previously to this Disaster team of local conflict researchers and the existing crisis. But the tendency to Risk Reduction advisor at Plan International. climate change experts from the Institut draw a direct line of causation between

23

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

change is “Climate exacerbating conflicts

over natural resources.”

Janani Vivekananda

The water of Lake Chad sustains agriculture in the Sahel region. Here: Women working in a plantation in Chad

de recherche pour le développement (IRD), this assessment is the first step in understanding the joint risks and informing of solutions linking the region’s complex problems.

Four key climate-fragility risks Research to date points to four key climate-fragility risks affecting the stability of the region: 1. Climate and ecological changes are increasing livelihood insecurity and social tensions: the variability of the weather was increasing before the Boko Haram crisis, but communities were mostly able to cope or adapt. However, increased climate variability – namely more unpredictable inter- and intra-annual rainfall patterns – is decreasing livelihoods, livelihood diversity and resilience, and is leading to adverse livelihood strategies (such as deforestation and sex for food) because of the conflict2. These pressures are damaging social cohesion and increasing tensions and conflicts at all levels, from within families to between different ethno-linguistic groups.

2. Conflict and fragility are increasing vulnerability to climate risks: the ongoing conflict has significantly undermined community resilience – including the ability of the population to adapt to climate change. For example, the blocked access to parts of the lake by Boko Haram or state security forces mean that communities have lost major livelihood diversification options such as fishing and farming the fertile lands around the shore of the lake. This reduced coping capacity impedes future efforts to address conflict and climate risks.

3. Natural resources conflicts: climate change is exacerbating conflicts over natural resources. There was a trend of increasing conflicts around natural resources before the conflict with Boko Haram, in particular over land and water, often between different occupational groups, such as pastoralists and farmers. These conflicts decreased in the context of the ongoing conflict with armed opposition groups, but

24

Photo: © Alexander Carius

are seeing a recent resurgence. After the Boko Haram crisis stabilises, it is likely that they will gain in salience and it is as yet uncertain how they will play out in the new context of lesser resilience.

4. Livelihood insecurity and recruitment into armed groups: recruitment into non-state armed opposition groups is increasing and retention rates are sustained in the face of social and economic inequality, increasingly vulnerable livelihoods and a history of financial incentives offered by armed groups to join them. The rise in recruitment, retention rates, and an emerging trend of returnees choosing to go back to Boko Haram from IDP (Internally Displaced People) camps is linked to the increased insecurity of livelihoods. This is, in turn, linked to climate change, man-made ecological damage, namely deforestation, conflict making jobs less viable and the lack of livelihood options and equitable service provision in IDP camps. To clarify: climate change does not create terrorists, nor does it turn law abiding citizens into criminals. But a warming world acts as a threat multiplier, worsening existing risks and making it harder to work on solutions. The specific nature of the linked implications of climatic variability, man-made ecological damage and conflict on different livelihood strategies are still unclear and need to be better understood.

What should be done?

Taking these risks together, they create a self-enforcing feedback loop between increasing livelihood insecurity, climate change vulnerability and conflict and fragility. The latter are decreasing the resilience of communities, making them more vulnerable to climate change, which at the same time is further undermining livelihoods and exacerbating the competition around scarcer natural resources. If not broken, this vicious circle threatens to perpetuate the current crisis and take the region further down the path of conflict and fragility.

Climate Change

Lake Chad Lake Chad sits in the Sahel and spans more than 2.4 million square kilometers. Bordered by mountain ranges, its water sustains people, animals, fishing, irrigation, and economic activity in Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Niger. The water level is largely controlled by the inflow from rivers, notably the Chari River from the south and, seasonally, the Komodugu-Yobe from the northwest. Inflow fluctuates also with the shifting patterns of rainfall associated with the West African Monsoon, making the system very sensitive to drought. Extreme swings in Lake Chad’s water levels are not new, but in the past half century, Lake Chad has lost most of its water, which means that the once-great lake now spans less than a tenth of the area it covered in the 1960s. Resource managers and scientists are

Satellite pictures of Lake

concerned about the dramatic loss of fresh water that is the lifeblood of

Chad, 1973 and 2017

more than 30 million people.

source: www.nasa.gov

In order to tackle this crisis with any kind of sustainability – even in the short-run – there needs to be a thorough understanding of what caused it to spiral in the first place.

Despite the significant role climate change plays in shaping the risk landscape, there is as yet no analysis or process which explicitly takes into account the role climate change plays in either risk or the shaping of appropriate responses. The current emergency relief and stabilisation efforts in the region will be Libye Bardaï

Niger Fada

CHAD Abéché

Lake Chad

Nigeria

Soudan

N’Djamena Bongor Sarh Moundou

Cameroon

Central African Republic

Doba

The Lake Chad Basin is currently suffering one of the world’s greatest humanitarian crises. Approximately 10.7 million people are in need of immediate humanitarian assistance.

• 80-90% of the population depend on agriculture, fisheries

Photo: © NASA

nothing more than a superficial solution if responses do not address the accelerant of fragility that is climate change.

The only effective solutions will be ones that address the underlying causes of the crisis, and that are durable and sensitive to the environmental changes brought about by a warming world. That means ensuring that stabilisation, humanitarian and development efforts in the region better understand the interactions between environmental factors and the security and humanitarian context to inform effective responses. This would involve greater cognisance of the linked conflict, humanitarian, environmental and developmental risks in the region and taking steps to ensure interventions do no harm to climate-fragility risks. For example, reintegration and resettlement programmes should include a clear focus on livelihoods. The planning around these livelihoods needs to take into account the variable climatic conditions in the region to ensure they are viable in the face of increased climate variability.

Risk assessment is only a first step A climate-fragility risk assessment is a good first step to understanding the joint risks and informing of joint solutions to the complex problems faced in the region. But any assessment will only be as good as the institutional will and capacity to take up and respond to its findings. This means generating understanding of and buy-in to these compound risks across historically siloed institutions. The EEAS high level event “Climate, Security and Peace: The Time for Action” (see pp. 32-33) on 22 June in Brussels was a positive milestone towards generating greater awareness and buy-in. The proof of this will be evidenced in joined-up programming on the ground.

and livestock for their livelihoods • 5 million people are expected to face severe food insecuri-

> Web: https://www.adelphi.de/en

ty during the 2018 lean season • 2.4 million people have been displaced Map: © Floki Fotos, stock.adobe.com

1 See Nagarajan et al, 2018: Available at https://bit.ly/2LvV3ve 2 These causal links are strong and easy to trace through qualitative studies.

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Violent extremism and the weaponization of water in a changing climate

by Dr Marcus DuBois King, Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, Washington, D.C.

I

n the Middle East and East Africa, increasing water stress is an underlying factor increasing existing security threats. To be sure, these areas have historically experienced chronically arid conditions. However, regional climate predictions anticipate even higher temperatures, more frequent droughts, and greater variability in precipitation in the coming decades. Indeed, these changes will be felt more broadly.

Growing water scarcity and water stress The United Nations estimates that by 2025, 1.8 billion people will be living in areas of absolute water scarcity, and two-thirds of the world’s population could be subject to water stress.

These conditions, as discussed below, have enabled Violent Extremist Organizations (VEOs) to use water as a weapon in an increasing variety of destabilizing ways.

A 2012 U.S. intelligence community assessment cautioned that as water becomes more scarce, states may begin employing water as a weapon—even in regions where cooperative solutions have previously prevailed. While examples to date of water’s usage as a weapon amongst nation states are scant; at the subnational level, non-state actors including VEOs are already using water across a spectrum of terrorist activities, insurgencies, and civil wars.

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According to the Oxford Dictionary, a weapon is “a means of gaining advantage or defending oneself in a conflict or contest.” Wielded by a group, a weapon can take the form of a medium, action, or offensive capability used to coerce, injure, or kill.

Prominent extremist organizations utilizing this asymmetrical approach include: the so-called Islamic State (IS), Boko Haram, Al-Qaeda, Al-Shabaab, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and an additional Al-Qaeda branch in Syria, the Al-Nusrah Front.

Examples of water weaponization incidents Syria and Iraq IS has weaponized water in all of these respects in Syria and Iraq, a region afflicted by acute drought, in a comprehensive manner that is unprecedented in recent conflict. Our research finds that IS and Al-Nusrah were responsible for at least 24 water weaponization incidents between 2012 and 2015.

IS has used the water weapon on a strategic level to achieve implied territorial control. An infamous example is IS’s seizure and brief control of the Mosul Dam on the Tigris River upstream from Baghdad in 2014. This action provided at least the potential capability of unleashing a powerful torrent of water, able to destroy the so-called Green Zone where allied forces were based. The U.S. initiated an airpower campaign, largely in response to this threat. IS also used water as a strategic asset in administrative and financial activities within controlled areas to support weapons procurement. In Raqqa, the de facto capital

Source : shutterstock free images.

Climate change is steadily expanding the footprint of water stress

Climate Change

of IS in Syria, the organization collected taxes in exchange for water access.

Water has also been deployed as a tactical weapon in the conflict. On several occasions, IS used water in immediate support of operations against targets of military value. For example, in 2014, IS militants intentionally diverted water from nearby rivers in Iraq’s Diyala Province halting the advance of Iraqi security forces. Here it is clear: as access to water falls due to climate change, the power of those who wield it and its access, grows.

Dr Marcus DuBois King is Associate Professor and Director of the Master of Arts Program in International Affairs at George Washington University’s Elliott School. Previously, he directed studies on climate change security and the implications for military missions at Photo: www.elliott.gwu.edu/ marcus-king

CNA’s Center for Naval Analyses. He was also Project Director for the CNA Military

Advisory Board. He is a Senior Fellow and Advisory Board member at the Center for Climate and Security.

Somalia Our research also suggests that social coercion, or efforts to gain legitimacy among subjugated populations, is an additional motivation for the use of the water weapon by VEOs. Events that unfolded in Somalia demonstrate this trend. Throughout the ongoing civil war, Somali government forces have made inroads against the Islamist insurgent group Al-Shabaab, eventually retaking most major cities in 2014. Utilizing a historic drought, Al-Shabaab shifted from traditional hit and run guerilla tactics and started to demonstrate power and presence

according to the United Nations’ Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. While there is little evidence that Boko Haram applied deliberate weaponization, the resulting water stress significantly weakened the resilience of rural individuals against attacks and provided much more fertile grounds for recruitment, as suggested above.

Further south, in Nigeria’s Middle Belt – an increasingly arid transition zone between the lush Niger River Delta in the south and the arid northeast – an intense and protracted conflict pits militant semi-nomadic Muslim Fulani herdsmen against predominantly Christian farmers. The primary driver of the conflict is the contested access to shrinking grazing lands and the waters Marcus D. King they harbor. When Fulani cattle consume or trample crops, retaliation by the herdsman by cutting off government liberated cities from their water may involve the killing of livestock or even the direct poisoning sources. The direct targeting by Al-Shabaab of humanitarian of an adversary’s water sources. According to several sources, agencies has contributed in part to their limited access and has these herder-pastoral conflicts in the Middle Belt have accountled to the quarter of a million deaths and hundreds of thoued for more deaths than attacks by Boko Haram since 2016. sands of displaced.

The Somali Government’s inability to provide water and many Climate change increases the risk of conflicts other services has eroded its authority and legitimacy. Despite The weaponization of water grows in tandem with a litany of Al-Shabaab’s ultimately unsuccessful attempts to exploit this accelerating global impacts including higher temperatures, deficit by providing water access in exchange for loyalty, the changes in precipitation, extreme weather events, the rise of deployment of the water weapon has created a food crisis and the sea level (leading to saltwater intrusion into fresh water left enormous misery in its wake. In such a harsh environment, resources), and depletion of glaciers. As this happens, the it is tenuous at best to suggest local populations will continue potential conflict theatre where water can be weaponized to remain so resilient to extremist support or recruitment. grows. Normalization of water’s use as a weapon by VEOs and insurgents is a grave danger as they metastasize and expand Nigeria to new regions outside of the Middle East and East Africa.

Elsewhere in Africa, water stress compounds with internal Consequently, the community of nations combatting violent displacement of populations, effectively enhancing the lethality extremism should incorporate assessments of water stress and of terrorist attacks. mitigation measures into their strategies in numerous fragile In the Nigerian northeastern Lake Chad region, drought states where deteriorating ecological and social conditions are conditions and fighting displaced 2.3 million people by 2017 creating instability.

community of nations combatting violent extremism “The should incorporate assessments of water stress and mitigation measures into their strategies in numerous fragile states where deteriorating ecological and social conditions are creating instability.”

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

Earth Observation is fast becoming a tool of national and international security importance

We must prepare and react to climate and security risks through space technologies

by Sinéad O’Sullivan, Research Fellow, The Center for Climate and Security, Washington, D.C.

I

t has been well documented that climate change is producing rapid physical changes globally1; some of these changes are observable over short periods of time such as hours and days, whilst others require decades to come to light. Climate change has forced communities to change how their cultures exist and cooperate with each other, largely through the physical changes that have occurred in a local context.2

as key tools for decision-making by policy-makers and other key stakeholders. These tools give us unprecedented foresight into our climate future to match the unprecedented risks posed by climate change – a dynamic underscoring a Responsibility to Prepare.4

Effects of climate change

Climate change has brought about very specific physical changes that can be broken down into primary, secondary and tertiary effects. Primary effects are long-term changes that are easily observable over time and include phenomena such as melting glaciers, sea levels rising and desertification.

There are, however, secondary and tertiary effects of climate change that are harder to observe directly. Secondary effects Understanding emerging risks associated with climate change largely focus on both a global As globalization and increased sharing of the world’s resources increase in natural disasters, both in count and severity and a increase, diminishing resources in certain geographic locations reduction or change in available due to climate change are quickly natural resources in a given becoming problematic and progeographic location. liferating negative consequences Natural disasters can be very globally.3 Sinéad O’Sullivan quickly detected through satelUnderstanding the emerging risks is a Sainsbury Management Fellow at lite and drone imagery; they are around these vulnerable geograthe Harvard Business School and a Rephysical in nature and chaotic phies is of utmost importance and search Fellow at the US Center for Cliin behavior. Using methods of understanding how to prepare for mate and Security. She has completed change detection in imagery, and mitigate these risks is the rea Bachelors of Aerospace Engineering which have been implemented sponsibility of all stakeholders in (Queen’s University of Belfast), a MasPhoto: © Matthew Guillory for several decades, satellite the larger, international context. ters in Aerospace Engineering (Georgia imagery can very quickly detect Satellites and Earth ObservaInstitute of Technology) and an MBA a natural disaster. They also can tion (EO) technologies – namely from Harvard Business School. Having worked for NASA, be used in certain stages of the drones or UAVs – are among the the US Navy and the Federal Aviation Administration, she disaster management cycle as best means for observing how focuses on the intersection between space technologies and outlined by the United Nations the world is climatically and geopolitical policies surrounding natural and humanitarian Office of Disaster Risk Reduction geographically changing. Going disasters, including climate change.

(UNISDR).5 Given its ability to forward, they should be included

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Climate Change

“

collect mass amounts of unbiased data very quickly, especially in conditions that are too dangerous for human data collection, EO data is exceptionally useful for measuring, monitoring and even predicting secondary effects of climate change.

Tertiary effects of climate change are much harder to measure through EO technologies, although satellites do play a very vital role. In this instance, third level effects of resource insecurities and natural disasters are largely intertwined with the downstream effects of socio-economic and geopolitical stresses, which can inevitably lead to human disasters. In this instance, famine, the migration of communities and increased conflict are major areas of global concern. It is important to note that these second and third-level effects often feed into each other and themselves,6 but to simplify the response to such effects, they usually are treated as independent.

and drones can be valuable tools that policy makers should utilize to create sustainable and unbiased policies to reduce the risks that are emerging due to local and global climate change.

Across the EO industry, there is a strong need to create an integrated approach at all levels to find an end-to-end solution. This entails a higher level of data integration between the private-sector satellite companies and, even more importantly, a wider range of partnerships among government agencies to allow easier access to this data.

As the world moves into a new digital age, policy making should not be left behind. The importance of monitoring, reacting to and predicting climate change-related consequences has never been higher, as evidenced by the current geopolitical phenomena occurring worldwide.

The global impact of climate change means that policy-makers are not only encouraged but also required to advance ways in which climate-related problems are dealt with on an international scale. Satellites and drones provide new ways to monitor global changes rapidly and easily, and Earth Observation is fast becoming a tool of national and international security importance. There is much work to be done to create an integrated approach to decision-making from Earth Observation analytics, but the data is readily available to those who seek it, as many do, and use it to prepare for and mitigate against these risks.

The importance of monitoring, reacting to and predicting climate change-related consequences has never been higher.”

Sinéad O’Sullivan

The problem of fresh data collection Of these effects, famine and human migration are the most difficult to record both on the ground and from aerial EO systems.

Satellite imagery has a refresh rate of approximately three days in developed, populated and urbanized areas. However, humanitarian disasters are most prevalent in geographic locations that are not observed by highly refreshed satellites, and thus tracing the movement of people is very difficult when the movement is much faster than the capture rate of a satellite.

To get around this problem, satellite imagery, and especially imagery captured by drones, has been used to observe refugee camps and surrounding areas of movement. Algorithms have been developed that can take satellite and drone imagery and create an estimate of the camp population, something that is nearly impossible to do on the ground due to the volatility in refugee movements from one camp to another.7 Like the movement of people, famine and food shortages are difficult to visually detect. Rather than reacting to a famine, satellites (more so than drones) are beginning to be used in a revolutionary way that will predict future food shortages, both globally and within key areas of concern such as highly vulnerable geographies. Within the private sector, U.S.-based TellusLabs is combining decades’ worth of satellite imagery and using machine learning to predict economic and environmental future conditions.8 They are working with government agencies to predict crop yields across the United States. Their aim is to expand to international markets and eventually create global grain-supply predictions to locate and prevent weaknesses in the global and local food supply chain.

Future recommendations Earth Observation can provide invaluable global socio-economic, and geopolitical insights.9 As political and economic decision-making become increasingly data-driven, satellites

This article is an update of S. O’Sullivan. “Capturing Climate and Security Risks Through Satellites and Earth Observing Technologies,” in Epicenters Of Climate And Security: The New Geostrategic Landscape Of The Anthropocene, The Center for Climate and Security, June 2017 > Web: https://climateand security.org/

1 S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group, Cambridge: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), 2012.

2 Gilman, Urban, Tewksbury, Gilchrist, Holt. “A framework for community interactions under climate change.” Trends in Ecology and Evolution 25, no. 6 (June 2010).

3 Bohle, Downing, Watts. “Climate change and social vulnerability: Toward a sociology and geography of food insecurity.” Global Environmental Change 4, no. 1 (March 1994).

4 C. Werrell, F. Femia, S. Goodman, S. Fetzek, “A Responsibility to Prepare: Governing in an Age of Unprecedented Risk and Unprecedented Foresight,” The Center for Climate and Security, August 7, 2017 5 Coppola. Introduction to international disaster management. Elsevier, 2007.

6 Lindley. “Environmental Processes, Political Conflict and Migration.” In Humanitarian Crises and Migration: Causes, Consequences and Responses.

Routledge, 2016.

7 Giada, Groeve, Ehrlich, Soille. “Can satellite images provide useful information on refugee camps?” International Journal of Remote Sensing 24, no. 22 (2003).; Giada, Groeve, Ehrlich, Soille. “Information extraction from very high resolution satellite imagery over Lukole refugee camp, Tanzania.” International Journal of Remote Sensing 24, no. 22 (2003).

8 TellusLabs. http://www.telluslabs.com/ (accessed April 11, 2017).

9 OECD. “Earth observation for decision-making.” OECD.org. March 2017. ­ https://bit.ly/2mukYbO (accessed April 27, 2017).

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Armed forces and the challenges of climate change Many states already deal with the topic of climate change in their military strategies

by Greta Nielsen, Advisor, Federal Office of Bundeswehr Infrastructure, Environmental Protection & Services, Bonn

C

limate and the accompanying environmental changes are some of the major challenges for global security.

Hence, those responsible for providing this security – stability, freedom and justice – are in charge. Consequences of climate change, such as shifts in global precipitation patterns, sea level rise or the increasing number of extreme weather events are affecting the work of the armed forces in different ways.

Multiple reasons for conflicts

Photo: © UN Photo/Sylvain Liechti

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

ambitions from some global actors with consequences that are difficult to determine.

Many states already deal with the topic of climate change in their military strategies. A study reveals that most of these states expect a significant increase in aid missions due to extreme weather events which are the most noticeable result of climate change in their work. The study also mentioned the growing number of humanitarian operations due to emerging large-scale migration flows caused by resource scarcity1.

The German Bundeswehr, like other armed forces, is used to working in uncertain conditions as a result of alternating political environments and positions, but the impacts of a rapidly changing environment will be additionally and increasingly demanding.

Regions already known as politically and societally fragile will be further destabilised due to resource allocation conflicts as well as migration flows emerging from the limited availability of Future challenges require new approaches important resources. Especially in climate zones where water The complexity of the upcoming challenges, which are directly is scarce, consequential problems or indirectly linked to climate such as the shortage of drinking change, as well as the neceswater, desertification or soil sity to adapt to these, require Greta Nielsen salinisation can have significant multidimensional thinking, new has been an Advisor for Sustainabilnegative impacts on entire reapproaches and careful trade-offs ity, Environmental Management and gions. Furthermore, there is an inbetween sometimes fundamental Biodiversity at the Federal Office for creasing risk of local communities needs (see table). The Bundes­ Bundeswehr Infrastructure, Environbecoming susceptible to recruitwehr Office for Defence Planmental Protection and Services since ment by terrorist groups such as ning addresses these issues by 2014. Born in 1985 in Hamburg, she Photo: © Bundeswehr / the Islamic State or Boko Haram. developing future scenarios. Often holds a degree in Science (Protected J. Pushparajah-Hoof However, even regions which many of the parameters are rather Area Management) from the James have been known as uncritical in vague, thus various scenarios Cook University in Townsville, Australia, and a Diploma terms of global security suddenly have to be developed in order to in Landscape Ecology and Nature Conservation from the become potential subjects of gain a certain level of planning seErnst-Moritz-Arndt-University, Greifswald, Germany. She conflict. For example, the melting curity. A substudy of the “Future has published articles in various international publications.

Arctic ice pack prompts economic Report – Environmental Dimen-

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Climate Change

sions of security”2 deals with the impacts of climate change on the Middle East and North Africa. These regions are considered particularly vulnerable with regard to destabilisation emerging from climate change. On the one hand, environmental changes will be especially noticeable, on the other hand, the respective countries have a rather low level of resilience to deal with the evolving problems. Hence, different scenarios were drafted in order to capture all possible development options.

The race for scarce resources What happens if deployed armed forces compete with local residents for scarce resources? This scenario almost occurred in 2017, when the German military contingent contributing to the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) significantly increased. Mali is situated in a region where the excessive abstraction of water exceeds the natural regeneration capacities, thus causing a widespread depletion of the water reserves3. In most cases it is difficult to improve the sources of access to water because of technical or economic restrictions, security matters and the workload caused by transport and safeguarding. Therefore, efforts focus predominantly on the development of water-saving technologies and processes as well as accompanying awareness programmes rather than additional water supply infrastructure. The aim is to consume less raw water while ensuring the existing health standards for soldiers and their operational capability at the same time. This requires careful consideration of diverging fundamental needs – and the necessity to comply with German law. By using standardised concepts, even complex challenges such as this can be tackled appropriately.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), for example,

Examples for the multidimensionality of future challenges linked to climate change from a military perspective Examples of impacts of climate change → Resource scarcity, esp. water and fertile soil → Sea level rise → Extreme weather events Examples of consequences → Resource allocation conflicts → Large-scale migration flows → Diseases → Terrorism Examples of military responsibilities → Military presence → Diplomacy → Humanitarian aid missions → Education → Maintenance of own societal interests

of climate change, “Consequences such as shifts in global precipitation patterns, sea level rise or the increasing number of extreme weather events are affecting the work of the armed forces in different ways.” Greta Nielsen

developed relevant recommendations in 2016 and 20174. Additionally, a working group consisting of members of Swedish, Finnish and American armed forces addressed this topic in an Environmental Guidebook for Military Operations.5

How armed forces can secure climate protection Armed forces are not only in demand when it comes to curing the symptoms of climate change, but also preventing climate change in the first place. Being a federal institution and one of the biggest employers in Germany, the German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) take this responsibility very seriously. The framework that needs to be provided in order to run military forces spans the operation of numerous buildings and vehicles and the entire food supply chain to the procurement of a tremendous range of most diverse products. In all cases, prudent decisions can make a difference with regard to climate change.

For example, the Bundeswehr implements the Sustainability Programme of the Federal Government, significantly reducing its CO2 emissions. Working in accordance with this precautionary principle surely is one of the most effective measures each Ministry of Defence can take in order to counteract a destabilisation of global security caused by climate change.

1 Brzoska, M. (2015): Climate change and military planning; International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Vol 7, Iss 2, pp 172-190.

2 Bundeswehr Office for Defence Planning (Planungsamt der Bundeswehr, 2012): Klimafolgen im Kontext - Implikationen für Sicherheit und Stabilität im Nahen Osten und Nordafrika. Streitkräfte, Fähigkeiten und Technologien im 21.

Jahrhundert, Umweltdimensionen von Sicherheit, Teilstudie 2.

3 UNESCO (United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, United Nations World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP), UN-Water (2012): Managing Water under Uncertainty and Risk. United Nations World Water Development Report 4, Volume 1.

4 NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 2016): Environmental protection best practices and standards for military camps in NATO operations. Allied Joint Environmental Protection Publication N°2 and N°3.

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 2017): Environmental management systems in NATO military activities. Allied Joint Environmental Protection Publication N°3.

5 United States Department of Defense, Finnish Ministry of Defence, and Swedish Armed Forces (2008): Environmental Guidebook for Military Operations https://bit.ly/2Jxok6Y

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Taking climate security seriously (ed/ak, Berlin) It was a sign of commitment: on 22 June, High Representative/Vice President Federica Mogherini invited ministers, parliamentarians, leading officials and experts from international organisations, civil society and think tanks from around the world to a high-level event on “Climate, Peace and Security: The Time for Action“.

Ten years after a European Commission paper on Climate Change and International Security and as the finale to the global European Climate Diplomacy Week1, this conference put climate security high on the European agenda. The issue was already prominently featured in the EU’s Global Strategy on Foreign and Security Policy from 2016 and was followed up earlier this year by the Council Conclusions on Climate Diplomacy2, which recognised the conference as an important step towards addressing the climate-security nexus.

The government officials and experts unanimously stressed the urgency and importance of tackling the threats that climate change pose to the security, peace and stability of countries and regions worldwide. Those threats are manifold, from drought and water scarcity – forcing people to leave their homeland and making them vulnerable to the recruitment of violent extremist organisations – to extreme weather events, threatening the livelihoods of millions. The participants of the conference emphasised that climate change has to be considered as a multiplier of existing instability and security risks.

What is the role of the Union in this scenario? Ms Mogherini made clear that climate change and security are global issues

“

Climate change cooperation and climate diplomacy can be good entry points for preventing conflicts and strengthening trust.

A whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach can move us forward.”

Thomas Greminger, Secretary-General of the OSCE (via twitter)

Participants of the high-level climate change event of 22 June. In the middle:

Sushma Swraij, Indian External Affairs Minister (right) and Thomas Greminge

What does climate change mean?

Global temperatures rise

Warming oceans

Arctic sea ice decline

The Earth’s average temperature has increased by 1.1 °C (NASA data) during the 20th century, and most of the warming has occurred in the past 35 years. Even though this may sound like a small amount, it is however an unusual event in the planet’s recent history. Small changes in temperature correspond to enormous changes in the environment.

As the planet warms, it’s the ocean that gets most of the extra energy by absorbing much of the increased heat from the atmosphere, with the top 700 meters of ocean showing significant warming since 1971 (+0.5°C, NOAA data). The plants and animals that live in the ocean must adapt to the warming, or die.

Both the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice has rapidly declined over the last several decades. Arctic sea ice reaches its minimum each September. According to NASA data, September Arctic sea ice is now declining at a rate of 13.2% percent per decade. The Arctic Ocean is expected to become essentially ice free in the summer before the mid-century.

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased in mass.

According to NASA, Greenland lost an average of 281 billion tons of ice per year between 1993 and 2016, while Antarctica lost about 119 billion tons during the same time period. The rate of Antarctica ice mass loss has tripled in the last decade.

Photo: © NASA Goddard Space Flight Center,

Photo: © Goddard Space Flight Center,

CC BY 2.0, Flickr.com

CC BY 2.0, Flickr.com

Photo: © climate.nasa.gov

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Photo: Matthias Hiltner, CC BY 2.0, Flickr.com

Shrinking ice sheets

Climate Change

“

The UN must step up and lead global efforts together with regional partners such as the EU.” Margot Wallstrom, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Sweden

“

We must bear in mind that the capacity of developing countries to translate their political commitments into tangible initiatives and projects gets constrained by lack of predictable, sustained and adequate finances and Sushma Swraij, Indian External Affairs Minister technologies.”

: Margot Wallströme, Swedish Foreign Affairs Minister; sitting next to her:

er, Secretary-General of the OSCE (left) Source: © European Union , 2018, Photo: Lukasz Kobus

that need global action – however the EU is already indirectly and directly affected by consequences of climate-related security threats. What is more, experts underlined that the EU has the capacities and capabilities to take a leading role in putting climate security on the global agenda as well as to support other countries in preparing for and responding to incidents.

The concept of “Responsibility to Prepare”– introduced by The Center for Climate and Security3 (US) together with the Planet Security Initiative – has been recognised as an important principle in climate security politics. The concept foresees a routinisation, institutionalisation and elevation of the discussion as well as an integrative approach, analysing climate security in conjunction with other security areas such as terrorism, nuclear proliferation or maritime security.

In addition, six points of further action have been determined by the participants of the event: • Elevate the climate-security nexus to the highest political level in national, regional and multilateral fora • Deploy maximum political and diplomatic efforts to support the Paris Agreement implementation • Mobilise and improve reporting and early warning systems focusing on most exposed countries and regions • Put the focus on prevention: building state and societal ­resilience • Promote the role of women as agents of social, economic and political change • Make action on the ground a source of sustainability, strength and peace, meaning that climate, development and security dimensions should be addressed at the same time https://bit.ly/2Ku01sa https://bit.ly/2tLqRER 3 https://bit.ly/2tMS2iC 1

2

Glacial retreat

Glaciers are also retreating almost everywhere around the world — including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa.

Glacial melting is impacting freshwater ecosystems. Over a billion people rely on these glaciers for drinking water, sanitation, agriculture and hydroelectric power.

Photo: © Dimitry B. CC BY 2.0, Flickr.com

Sea level rise

The global sea level rose significantly in the last century as a result of added water from melting polar ice sheets and glaciers in combination with the expansion of seawater as it warms. This results in flooding and erosion of coastal and low-lying areas. Rising sea levels also contaminate freshwater sources, and saltwater interferes with agriculture by stunting crop growth.

Photo: dronepicr, CC BY 2.0, Flickr.com

Biodiversity loss

Extreme weathers events

Global warming is likely to be the greatest cause of species extinction this century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says a 1.5°C average rise may put 2030% of species at risk of extinction.

Many of the world’s threatened species live in areas that will be severely affected by climate change.

Climate change has increased extreme weather events like severe droughts and heat waves in some regions, and extreme precipitation and coastal flooding in others.

Climate change is also supposed to have a worsening effect on tornados and hurricanes, like in the Caribbean.

Photo: Tchami, CC BY-SA 2.0, Flickr.com

Photo: Sonse, CC BY 2.0, Flickr.com

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

The Under2 Coalition: how climate protection should work

Interview with Franz Untersteller MdL, Minister of Environment, Climate and the Energy Sector of Baden-Württemberg, Stuttgart

Photo: © Stockwerk-Fotodesign, stock.adobe.com

Worldwide determination to achieve the climate targets

renewables at unbeatable cost. So I am virtually certain that emissions will decline in the US despite Trump. He may of course be elected for a second four-year term – but then again he may not. We shall see.

The European: Thank you for explaining your views so clearly.

Let me delve a bit deeper: the Under2 Coalition is the first he European: Minister, it is a pleasure to have this opporglobal association and network of subnational and regional tunity to talk with you here in Stuttgart. On the way here, I organisations working on climate change. You and California was listening to a report on the radio about diminishing hopes Governor Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown were the inventors of the of reducing CO2 emissions in the US if Trump is re-elected. But Initiative back in 2015. What are your goals and how do you the report also mentioned legislation in California requiring plan to proceed? solar systems in all new-build construction. Isn’t that a contraFranz Untersteller: Luckily I had the honour to meet Goverdiction? What is your view and how can we achieve the Paris nor Jerry Brown at the opening of the Intersolar event in San climate conference (COP21) targets in spite of Trump?

Francisco in 2014. At the time, we were both worried about the Franz Untersteller: Trump is certainly not of help when it comes upcoming 2015 COP21 conference. I broached the idea that to protecting the climate, but his importance should not be the international community could get together at subnational overestimated. Alternative energies are up and running in level to put evidence-based North America and are rapidly political pressure on national gathering momentum. A dozen governments. Jerry Brown was states and provinces, including receptive to the idea and so we California, Ontario and WashFranz Untersteller decided that Baden Württemington State, have made a very has been the Minister of the Environment, Climate Protection berg and California should set strong commitment to combating and the Energy Sector of the State of Baden-Württemberg the ball rolling. We did so in 2015 climate change by implementing since 2011. Born in 1957, he studied town and country and hoped to drum up enough effective measures, as have many planning in Nürtingen-Geislingen and Columbia, graduating support for our initiative before large cities such as New York, in 1982. Having worked for many years for the Öko-Institut in the Paris conference in DecemSan Francisco and Los Angeles.

Freiburg, he became a member of the Baden-Württemberg ber 2015. The governor said we Ultimately, the choice between State parliament in 2006 where he was deputy leader of should aim for 100 members of energy production technologies the Green Party from 2006 to 2011. He founded Under2 the Under2 Coalition. I thought that protect or damage the climate Coalition together with the Governor of California Edward that was bit too optimistic, but depends on cost. In California, G. Brown in 2015. he turned out to be right! electricity can be generated from

T

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Climate Change

The European: So how did you go about it?

Franz Untersteller: We drew up a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) in June 2015. We deliberately avoided prescribing one single list of measures to be taken by all signatories, and accommodated the very different shapes and sizes of our members – regions, provinces, counties and cities – by leaving it up to them to decide individually what action to take.

Each member simply commits to reducing its local or regional CO2 emissions to less than 2 tons per capita per annum – as the name Under2 implies – or to cut emissions by 80-95% from 1990 levels between now and 2050, according to its own methods. The only obligation in the MOU is to report on activities and results.

The European: And how many members were you able to recruit when you started out? Who are they?

Franz Untersteller: By the time of the COP21 in Paris, we already had well over 100 members and we now have 206 on six continents accounting for 1.3 billion people and 40% of global GDP. In addition to California and Baden-Württemberg, our members now include several states in the US, twelve states in Mexico, and in Europe above all the province of Catalonia.

The European: Minister, to be successful, political lobbying has to be carried out by an entity of some kind. Who is in charge of that?

Franz Untersteller: The Climate Group in London, an experienced NGO, handles organisational matters as secretariat to the Under2 Coalition. The system works very well!

The European: And what is your policy action?

Franz Untersteller: Our policy action is relatively straightforward. We focus on three main themes: 1. Reporting and Measuring, 2. Verification, in other words comparing our experience, 3. Information concerning suitable systems, to encourage recommendations for solutions and incentive programs.

The European: And where do you get your funding?

Franz Untersteller: That is a very important issue. Our funding comes mainly from subnational governments themselves through voluntary contribution, from national governments such as the International Climate Initiative run by the German

Source: Secretariat The Climat Group, London

Federal Government, state governments, such as Baden-Wurttemberg in Germany, and foundations, particularly in the US, such as the Rockefeller Brothers Fund. We have also made a lot of progress on institutional funding.

The European: Does the Under2 Coalition have a representative to the Commission in Brussels?

Franz Untersteller: I am delighted to report that I had the pleasure of opening an office in March of this year right next to the European Institutions. It is located in the offices of the Baden-Württemberg Representation in Brussels, and it is up and running.

The European: Congratulations! I am happy that your state government has decided to support your cause. It’s very encouraging to see that the Under2 Coalition has set things in motion by focusing on concrete evidence and shared responsibilities, but how do you assess the overall policy impact so far?

Franz Untersteller: Clearly, actual decisions are taken by national governments. But by making recommendations we can put pressure on governments to move in the right direction.

The more compelling the evidence we produce, the greater our impact. We take an active part in conferences at various levels – regional, national and international – and our work is well regarded.

The European: What are your strengths?

Franz Untersteller: Our evidence based approach and our focus on innovative change.

The European: Could I get back to the issue of information and promoting your policy action and ask you about exchange of information and recommendations on energy supply in the developing countries?

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

consumers “Today, can also be energy producers.”

Franz Untersteller

Photo: UM Stuttgart

Franz Untersteller: In the developing countries, micro-grids using wind and solar generation and battery storage to generate and distribute electricity 24 hours a day can – and I hope will – not only make life better for the people who live there but also make an appreciable contribution to combating climate change.

Franz Untersteller: Yes, energy is one of our main focuses, and there can be no development without energy. There are already many success stories in the field of renewable energies, but there is enormous scope for further progress.

The European: To me, development policy has to include climate policy. But what we are seeing in Africa, Asia and Latin America is that we Europeans are exporting our centralised power generation systems to developing countries. Large overhead lines are being built over the heads of populations, mostly without providing them with electricity. Most of the remote areas in these continents have hardly any access to electric power, even though industry could provide it and in doing so, replace environmentally harmful diesel generators.

Franz Untersteller: I agree that distributed electricity supply is one of the best ways of providing remote regions in Africa, Asia and Latin America with clean power. Electricity is essential for life and it is therefore essential to lay the groundwork for distributed electricity supply systems.

The European: I take it that would mean abandoning the strategy of central power supply as a tool for development policy?

Franz Untersteller: I fully agree!

The European: Is that not an area where the Under2 Coalition could make a useful contribution?

Franz Untersteller: Just remember that 20 years ago Germany had 450 power plants of all types and now there are 1.6 million generation units. Today, consumers can also be energy producers. In addition, the revolutionary law on renewable energies has made alternative generation systems highly competitive in terms of price. Taking the same approach in the developing countries would give them an enormous opportunity to generate cheap electricity efficiently.

The European: And what about their contribution to combating climate change?

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The European: How could the large electricity utilities help protect the climate? I refer to companies like Eon, Vattenfall, RWE, EDF and of course EnBW, one of the very large electricity utilities in your state, to name just a few?

Franz Untersteller: Yes, EnBW is a good example. It is a company I know well. EnBW found itself in a very tight spot a few years ago but it managed to change course. Back then, it had 50% nuclear generation in its portfolio and at the same time it was having to phase out its coal-fired power plants. Management, led by Frank Mastiaux, recognised the challenge in time and made a determined push towards generating power from renewable sources. In addition, the company has invested in grids and has an outstanding customer focus. EnBW has made a great success of the energy transition!

The European: Minister, this interview began unconventionally. May I be allowed to end it provocatively?

Franz Untersteller: Sounds interesting! Fire away.

The European: Do you consider that nuclear energy and climate protection are two sides of the same coin or is nuclear an absolute no-go?

Franz Untersteller: As far as I am concerned, nuclear energy has always been, and still is, a risky technology. We only have to think of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima. Whole swathes of land were made uninhabitable. They still are.

Nuclear accidents have caused immeasurable suffering. On top of that, spent fuel that will be radioactive for the next thousand years is being deposited in intermediate storage facilities around the world. Even in Germany, a technologically sophisticated country, we won’t have a final storage facility until 2035.

Given what we know now therefore, I think the idea of building new nuclear plants is misguided, especially since nuclear generation is more costly than generation from renewables. So for all these reasons, nuclear is a no-go for me.

The European: Minister, thank you for this candid conversation. I wish you all the best in your work as environment minister and as one of the founders of the Under2 Coalition.

The interview was conducted by Editor-in-Chief Hartmut Bühl.

Climate Change

Europe’s transition to a low-carbon society

The Energy Union: boosting resilience, supporting innovation, empowering people

by Maroš Šefčovič, Vice-President for the Energy Union, European Commission, Brussels

T

here is a proverb saying: if you want to go fast, go alone; if you want to go far, go together. With the Energy Union, I am convinced we have been managing both – going far at a fast pace. Some three years since the publication of the Energy Union Strategy, the European Commission has tabled all proposals needed for us to deliver. Guided by our commitment to climate action and by economic sense, our ambition is to put in place a new legal framework that will enable this profound transformation of Europe’s energy systems and the modernisation of our entire economy.

How to end fragmentation When I took on the responsibilities of the Vice President for the Energy Union, the EU’s internal energy market was fragmented.

Despite rules set at the European level, there were in fact 28 national regulatory frameworks in place. The retail market was not satisfactory, with little choice of energy suppliers and little control over energy costs. The existence of so-called energy islands relying on a single gas supplier due to a lack of adequate interconnectors was of particular concern in the context of a worrying geopolitical atmosphere. The clean energy transition was more of a concept than a set of convincing actions, let alone results.

In 2015, we therefore decided to address this and the prospective challenges by creating a true European Energy Union. I believe it is the most ambitious energy project since the Coal and Steel Community was launched in the 1950s. Based on five pillars – energy security, solidarity and trust; a fully-integrated

European energy market; energy efficiency; decarbonisation; and research, innovation and competitiveness – the Energy Union is precisely delivering on all these issues. (See box p. 38)

Clean energy and energy efficiency The launch of the Clean Energy for All Europeans package centred on renewables, energy efficiency and consumers was a particularly important milestone. Our most recent hat-trick – a political deal on the EU’s 2030 targets of 32% renewable energy and a 32.5% increase in energy efficiency, as well as the Energy Union’s governance – proves we are on track. Now I am looking forward to receiving Member States’ draft energy and climate plans by the end of the year so we can make their first assessment in the first quarter of 2019. These plans send a crucial signal of clarity and predictability to investors whom we need to invest here.

I am convinced that what we do today – not tomorrow – will define the EU’s place on the geopolitical map of this century and make us frontrunners, followers or laggards of the 4th industrial revolution. Because our competitors also understand that a nation that leads in the clean energy economy will lead the global economy. And I want the European Union to be this leader, capitalising on our early mover advantage.

Future-proof energy infrastructure I have made it imperative to engage with people during my Energy Union Tours across all Member States. When asked to sum up our vision in a sentence, I often mention three tasks – first, to secure enough energy, then to replace fossil fuels with renewables and finally to use clean energy to charge and transform our economy. During this process, our consumers are becoming empowered ‘prosumers’.

When it comes to energy security, our philosophy has been clear: an Energy Union based on trust, solidarity and unity

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

economic future “Our depends on our leadership in the solutions of tomorrow.”

Maros Šefčovič has served as the Commission’s Vice-President in charge of the Energy Union since November 2014. He graduated from the University of Economics in Bratislava and the Moscow State Institute for Foreign Relations, and holds a doctoral degree in law and European Law from the Photo: European Commission

Comenius University in Bratislava. After his diplomatic career, he has held different positions at the European

Commission since 2009. In 2014, Mr Šefčovič was elected as Member of the European Parliament, which led to his appointment to the current position.

among Member States. A pan-European energy market based on free trade, competition and diversified supplies, sources and routes. No political strings attached. Fair prices for consumers. That is why I strongly believe that all new infrastructure projects should make us more resilient.

This can be illustrated by projects such as the Southern Gas Corridor: A strategic ‘bridge’ between the Caspian region and the EU market, but also by better interconnections aimed at completing our internal energy market. Let me mention the first natural gas interconnector between Romania and Bulgaria and the Baltic Energy Market Interconnection Plan crucial for the synchronisation of the Baltic States with the European electricity grid – a few of many examples.

Another will be Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), as the EU has gained access to the global market. With the Klaipeda LNG terminal, we have seen positive effects for people in the Baltic States. Similarly, the European Commission gives strategic importance to a LNG project in Croatia.

To support the state-of-the-art European infrastructure networks for energy – but also for transport and digital services – we have proposed a strengthened Connecting Europe Facility with a budget of  42.3 billion for 2021-2027. It could also support cross-border renewable energy generation to help boost the strategic uptake of market-ready technologies.

We keep in mind that electricity from renewable energy sources is expected to save us up to  58 billion in fossil fuel imports by 2030. Moreover, for every 1% improvement in energy efficiency, the EU’s gas imports fall by 2.6%.

industry. According to recent reports, China has secured seven times more EV investments than the EU in the last 12 months.

We need to do our utmost to ensure that the best, cleanest and most competitive cars are still produced in Europe. Our economic future depends on our leadership in the solutions of tomorrow. Transport, however, is not the only sector fundamentally changing because of the clean energy transition, or because of digitalisation and automation. Therefore, like with batteries, we need to focus on establishing a strong industrial base in strategic sectors and on fostering public-private partnerships with joint action plans.

I believe this is critical to our ability to innovate as well as bridge the gap between demonstration and commercial deployment of innovations. Otherwise the EU becomes an incubator for the rest of the world and European innovators end up fleeing to our global competitors despite our initial investment.

The time to show that ‘we mean business’ is now.

Energy Union The Energy Union was created in 2015 and focuses on five mutually supportive dimensions: • security, solidarity and trust: diversifying Europe’s sources of energy and ensuring energy security through solidarity and cooperation between EU countries • a fully integrated internal energy market: enabling the free flow of energy through the EU through adequate infrastructure

Strategic autonomy in key technologies Key technologies are another area where I want to see the EU’s strategic autonomy strengthened. Drawing on lessons learned in the photovoltaic sector, I am referring to batteries – crucial for further penetration and integration of renewable energy as well as a critical component in Europe’s e-mobility value chain.

We need to capture this sector, potentially worth EUR 250 billion yearly in Europe alone. In practice, this implies developing manufacturing capacities and creating an innovative, sustainable battery ecosystem here. That is why we have set up a European Battery Alliance – consisting of some 120 industrial and innovation actors, Member States, the European Investment Bank – and tabled a robust action plan to boost this

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and without technical or regulatory barriers • energy efficiency: improved energy efficiency will reduce dependence on energy imports, lower emissions, and drive jobs and growth • decarbonising the economy: the EU is committed to a quick ratification of the Paris Agreement and to retaining its leadership in the area of renewable energy • research, innovation and competitiveness: supporting breakthroughs in low-carbon and clean energy technologies by prioritising research and innovation to drive the energy transition and improve competitiveness. > Web: https://tinyurl.com/yc2zgy2x

Climate Change

The way is paved for the decentralisation of energy supply

Photo: © Pfisterer

How to adapt energy solutions to the needs of each country

Interview with Martin Schuster, Head of CrossPower, Pfisterer Holding, Winterbach

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he European: Mr Schuster, let me start with a rather personal question. What motivated you, after 40 years in a classic central electricity supply in leading positions, to develop ideas for a decentralised energy supply based on alternative sources?

Martin Schuster: It is true that I am particularly fascinated by the possibilities for a better life that hybrid energy systems, using alternative local energy sources, can bring to people in countries with little infrastructure. I wanted to bring my knowledge and experience to this new field.

The European: Could you please explain a little bit more the advantages of such decentralised systems for developing countries?

Martin Schuster: Energy is crucial for development, but it is often complicated to establish traditional energy supply in countries that do not have the money or the necessary infrastructures to establish big centralised grids and to manage the distribution. So, when there is no centralised energy supply, how will the needs of the population be met, for light, fridges, computers, or for hospitals…?

The European: …usually they use diesel generators with high CO2 emissions and a high cost for fuel. Today, this no longer seems sustainable with regard to the climate problem and the commercial situation.

Martin Schuster: Exactly! That’s why at Pfisterer we developed an innovative system which can be transported and stationed anywhere. The idea is to have a decentralised microgrid, enabled to produce energy in a competitive way through renewables, keeping CO2 emissions to a minimum (close to zero),

thus also contributing to the climate objectives of the United Nations and the European Union.

The European: What are the typical fields of interest or projects you are working on?

Martin Schuster: Let me give some examples. Typical in Africa are requests for electricity for field irrigation, small villages with schools and hospitals, or industry parks. We just received, for example, a request from Tanzania for the electrification of a complex which will include a school, a hospital and a girls’ hostel. We also receive similar requests from Central and South Asia, but in addition they also include mining and tourism. We are evaluating with the towns concerned, such as Ulaanbaatar in Mongolia, how the emission of fine dust particulates could be reduced in settlements with no electricity access, where anything flammable is burnt.

Furthermore, the United Nations is asking for energy in refugee camps, and disaster relief organisations for immediate energy in the event of a disaster. Last not but least, armed forces are interested in the system for deployed military camps.

The European: Could the post-war reconstruction process of towns in the Middle East be a new field of engagement where early energy could be provided?

Martin Schuster: Indeed, some organisations have contacted us with regard to Irak and Syria. But this is certainly a medium-term task.

The European: Are these systems also interesting for Europe?

Martin Schuster: In Europe, we will probably maintain for a long time a mix of centralised and decentralised systems, different in each country. But the way towards decentralisation has been paved. Ideas to create independent energy supplies already exist, where the consumer will be able to produce his or her own energy through wind generators or solar panels.

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

“

The idea is to have a decentralised microgrid enabled to produce energy through renewables.”

Martin Schuster has been Senior Advisor since 2010 and in parallel since 2014 Head of CrossPower at Pfisterer Holding AG in Winterbach. Born in 1951, he graduated from high-school and left as an Electrical Engineer the University of Karlsruhe in 1977. Mr Schuster started his professional career in 1977 at Pfisterer’s Laboratories, Photo: PFISTERER, Winterbach

where he became Head of several departments (High Voltage Technique, 1985; Head of Engineering and Sales, 1987; Head of

Medium & High Voltage Technology, 1995) before becoming 1999 Managing Director of Pfisterer Kontaktsysteme.

The European: Your system – called CrossPower – developed

by Pfisterer under your lead, was first designed for civil use, but the first tender you won was one with military purposes.

I remember visiting the first serial system in Lithuania, a few years ago, where the system was tested by the Lithuanian Army and NATO. Martin Schuster: That’s right. When I was studying reports on energy supply for civil-military forces in Afghanistan, I finally understood that energy for armed forces, including civil cooperation outside Europe, evidently represents a logistical problem. Fuel transports have to be protected when going through terrain held by unfriendly forces. I was shocked reading of the several hundreds of deceased fuel drivers the diverse NATO and other forces had to mourn.

energy sources, like the sun, wind, or water, and to store the produced energy in a modern battery system.

The European: And a military or civilian camp where energy is mainly supplied by diesel generators is of course also a climate problem.

Martin Schuster: Imagine these forces using thousands of fuel-driven driven generators for the functioning of their camps, often one for each tent, with high CO2 emissions all over the world! It just made sense to me and my colleagues from the CrossPower team to propose an alternative based on local

The European: Is Pfisterer manufacturing all necessary components for this system?

Martin Schuster: The most important part of our decentralised energy supply system is the management system. That’s why we decided to develop it at Pfisterer because of our experience and insight. The management system is the brain of CrossPower since it recognises which energies are available on the ground (sun, wind) and then automatically takes over

The European: These are your personnel and private lessons learned. Are there any commercial ones?

Martin Schuster: This is my next point. Industries that are not looking forward lose drive in research, development and production and eventually they lose the market. Pfisterer, as a leading company in the electricity world in several fields over the years and still now world champion, had no research and development (R&D) for hybrid energy in its portfolio until 2014, like many others. We started on our own by developing CrossPower led by our ambition and the unanimous support of the owner and the boards of the company.

PFISTERERs hybrid energy system CrossPower is adaptable to all existing energy sources

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source: © Pfisterer/CrossPower

Climate Change

the control of all functions. Thus, it permanently establishes the balance between generation and consumption. For the other main components our aim is to have at least two or three regular suppliers. This enables us to be flexible and to create systems that are totally in line with the different uses of our customers.

The European: This means that you are a system integrator?

Martin Schuster: Correct. After only two years and starting from scratch, we have been since 2016 the system integrator for CrossPower, adapting each system to the needs of the customer, continuously researching and developing improvements, and testing each system in our premises in Winterbach.

The European: I understand that the design of the systems you are offering can be different, but is the core always the same?

Martin Schuster: Your perception of CrossPower is correct.

To sum it up: we are building a hybrid energy system forming a microgrid for 24/7 electricity using almost no fossil sources and generally generating no CO2, and usable all over the world, steered by an automatic energy management system.

The European: This is a clear vote in favour of a decentralised energy supply with a rather low spectrum of power.

Martin Schuster: The initial idea was to develop a modular and mobile system which could be transported rapidly by land, air and sea to any place where it is needed – after an earthquake for instance. The spectrum we had in mind at that time was from 25 kW to 1 MW, now we are planning with up to 10 MW in mind. You are right; it is a relatively low spectrum of energy.

The European: But what happens in event of “dark-doldrums”, when input from renewables is not available?

Martin Schuster: First of all, we carry out the engineering in line with the requirements of the customer, depending on what the system is planned for. Secondly, by using batteries and the priorisation of loads, we can overcome a certain period, since the customer can decide which element has to be supplied permanently (for example, a field hospital) and where the supply can be suspended in the case of insufficient energy generation (for example the heating or the lights in the tents). Finally, when the customer needs uninterrupted power supply, we can integrate a backup diesel generator.

The European: Would there have been other technical solutions for you to reach your objectives?

Martin Schuster: For sure, there would have been other technical solutions but with a totally different design and purpose.

There are wind farms, photovoltaic plants, ‘Power to Gas’ constructions, etc., which are already used in developing countries. However, they mostly distribute energy in a centralised form, often not reaching remote regions. The real difference is that we are able to combine different renewables and to store the generated energy in the battery system, with the whole process controlled by the management system.

Technical Manager Thomas Krämer (left) with Nannette Cazaubon and Martin Schuster in the CrossPower production hall at the Pfisterer Headquarter in Winterbach, 04.06.2018

Photo: © ESDU 2018

The European: To summarise, CrossPower was from the start intended to be small and transportable, allowing for totally decentralised energy production and supply automatic microgrids.

Martin Schuster: Yes, and that means that thanks to its modularity, CrossPower can use energy sources in any available place. (See graphic p. 40) The European: What interest is there for your strategy in modern industry nations and in developing countries in Africa and Asia? Are you prepared to leave a share of the work in the country, meaning technology transfer?

Martin Schuster: We have requests from all over the world for civil and military use and we are working on them. There is interest for systems from 30 kW up to 10 MW. Military leaders speak of a force multiplier, the civil side mostly of capability provider. For sure, we plan to implant in each country a local company to be our partner, carrying out training, maintenance and logistics.

The European: What is your wish and expectation for the future of decentralised energy systems like CrossPower?

Martin Schuster: It is always a steep and stony path to establish a new technology in markets, but we realise that there is a change towards this so-called decentralised energy supply.

CrossPower is and will be a trendsetter in this direction.

The European: Mr Schuster, many thanks for this conversation and good luck.

The interview was conducted by Nannette Cazaubon at Pfisterer Headquarters in Winterbach > web: www.pfisterer.com/crosspower

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Photo: © Reinhard Tiburzy, stock.adobe.com

The energy providers’ commitment to climate protection

EnBW is playing an active and progressive role in the German energy transition

by Andreas Renner, Director of Public Affairs, Energie Baden-Würtemberg (EnBW), Karlsruhe

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nBW’s commitment to climate protection is primarily determined by a combination of incentives derived from a) opportunities for new business models and the development of new markets to b) the increasing sensitivity of investors towards sustainable corporate strategies and investments.

Both factors result from consumers’ attitudes and customers’ expectations that have changed discernibly over the past 30 years as well as international, European and national climate legislation and regulation which in turn is a result of peoples’ increasing awareness towards consequences of uncontrolled man-made climate change.

Fundamental adaptations are crucial to survive Having relied on conventional and nuclear power plants as well as oligopolistic market structures for decades, German utilities had to undergo fundamental adaptations to both market liberalisation and the “Deutsche Energiewende” (German energy transition). With the irreversible political decision in 2011 to phase-out nuclear energy in Germany by the end of 2022, falling wholesale electricity prices due to an increased power generation from renewable energy sources and European and national climate goals that would lead to a phase-out of most conventional power units in mid-term a new strategy was key to survive. EnBW was the first of the former big four utilities to initiate a process that led to a fundamentally new corporate strategy: by 2020, EnBW’s profits (Adjusted EBITDA) will stem

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from grids (1 billion euros, +25% compared to 2012), renewable energies (0.7 billion euros, +250% compared to 2012) and sales including new energy services like e-mobility (0.4 billion euros, +100% compared to 2012). Generation from conventional and nuclear power plants, as well as trading, will decrease by 80% from 1.2 billion euros to 0.3 billion euros.

Climate goals need to be more ambitious EnBW plays an active and progressive role in the German energy transition. As the only vertically-integrated utility, – meaning that it covers the entire power and gas supply chain from generation via transmission to sales – EnBW positions itself politically as a reasonable voice balancing the security of supply, competitiveness and climate protection. With regard to the latter, the company calls for more ambitious goals, especially at European and national levels. Among companies from different sectors and NGOs, EnBW signed various declarations supporting climate protection goals derived from the 2015 Paris Agreement and United Nations Climate Change conferences.

Part of the endorsement is a call for an improved, ambitious Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) as the key instrument for a cost-effective way of reducing GHG emissions without significant government intervention. Ideally, such a scheme includes as many countries as possible.

However, the reality is that international agreements on far-reaching instruments such as an ETS will most likely not be implemented in time to serve the climate goals appropriately.

Therefore, it is advisable to either reform the European ETS or, if politically unattainable, to form a coalition of willing. EU Member States like e.g. Germany, France, the BENELUX countries and Austria could simultaneously implement national pol-

Climate Change

to climate protection has become an indispensable “Commitment factor in EnBW’s current and future business model.”

Andreas Renner is Director of Public Affairs at Energie Baden-Württemberg AG (EnBW).

He holds a degree in Public Administration from the University of Konstanz. Mr Renner has held various management positions at EnBW since 2006. Prior to this, he was Minister for Labour and Social Affairs of the State of Baden-Württemberg, and from 1993 to 2005 Lord Mayor of Photo: © EnBW

the City of Singen.

icies fostering a higher CO2 price.

This can be introduced in stages.

Both a fixed markup on the market price or a specific price target as a minimum price are plausible.

A clearly defined path to a concrete price target provides all market participants with a high degree of planning security – whether for decommissioning or conversion planning for coal-fired power plants (e.g. from coalfired to gas-fired), or for investments in renewable energies. In order not to put an additional financial burden on the population, the state’s income from the CO2 pricing scheme could be offset by a reduction in the electricity tax. The special case of energy-intensive industries in international competition should be countered by exceptions from the abovementioned system.

Investing in climate protection and sustainability In recent years, questions of climate protection and sustainability have become more and more important on capital markets. Pension funds, large investors and sustainably oriented investors seek more information and transparency with regard to climate risks in companies’ portfolios. These include both

the effects of climate change on the business models of the companies and the impact of their activities on the climate. On this basis, investors are already deciding on investments and loans. The relevance continues to increase. In June 2017, the International Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) published its final recommendations to strengthen the climate-related risk reporting of companies. With the participation of EnBW CFO Thomas Kusterer, this working group, set up by the Financial Stability Board (FSB), developed practical recommendations for the disclosure of climate-relevant data.

The aim of the working group headed by Michael R. Bloomberg is to establish the topic of climate change and the resulting opportunities and risks in the annual and financial reports, to establish uniformity between the reporting companies, and to make forward-looking statements on the robustness of business models. EnBW included the TCFD recommendations in its integrated annual reporting for the first time in the 2017.

Commitment to climate protection has become an indispensable factor in EnBW’s current and future business model.

Business activities are in line with international, European and national climate protection goals. However, a more ambitious German government would not hurt.

EnBW’s new strategy • Over the last five years, due to a lack

• Not taking into account nuclear power

of profitability, EnBW shut down con-

plants, EnBW’s power plant fleet had

ventional power plants with a capacity

specific CO2 emissions of 606 g/kWh

• In addition, EnBW aims to increase its

of 1,720 MW1 – mainly coal-fired (959

in 2015. The goal is to reach 484 g/

power generation from renewable en-

MW), but also gas-fired (342 MW) and

kWh in 2020 which would translate to

ergy sources to 40% of its total power

oil-fired (426 MW).

a 20% decrease.

production by 2020.

• Power generation from fossil fuels de-

• In 2017, EnBW avoided greenhouse gas

creased from 26.3 TWh in 2013 to approx-

(GHG) emissions of 6.57 megatonnes (Mt)

imately 22.7 TWh in 2017, representing

through power generation of renewables

a 14% drop.

and pumped storage plants with natural

inflows. By 2020 approximately 8.8 Mt are targeted.

Due to their relevance for the security of supply system they are currently incorporated in the German power plant network reserve

1

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

Forecast-based financing: a new chapter in humanitarian aid

Reducing the impact of climate damage

by Bärbel Dieckmann, President of Welthungerhilfe, Bonn

P

eople in poor countries are particularly affected by natural disasters. The poor are the main victims of droughts, hurricanes or floods, all of which can destroy harvests, infrastructure and livelihoods, increase prices for foodstuffs, and force people to flee their homes.

early action, following early warning, would have reduced the scale of the disaster and the impact on people and livestock.

Disaster risk financing allows rapid help

To break the pattern of ex post or reactive humanitarian aid and to lobby for a paradigm shift in the humanitarian financing system towards ex ante or early response to disaster risk, WelPrevention is key thungerhilfe and partners are developing a replicable standard.

After a disaster hits, people and communities are often left to Named the Forecast based Financing (FbF) mechanism, it enafend for themselves, without external support. Maintaining the bles funds to be immediately available when a physical drought status quo of reactive (ex post) response to disasters results begins, before humanitarian impacts are felt. Earlier aid will in slow reaction times, often driven more by political will and save costs in comparison with a traditional response, and leads media attention than by actual needs. This way of working is to a reduction of loss and damage. inefficient and expensive. If, in addition, man-made climate Disaster risk financing is not a catch-all change ensures that extreme weather solution for humanitarian response and events occur more frequently and their it does not replace resilience work or disdestructive effects are intensified, then Bärbel Dieckmann aster risk reduction. Local authorities and neither the capacities of the countries has held the position of honorary president local actors should be prepared in good concerned, developed or not, nor the of Welthungerhilfe since 2008. She studtime for unavoidable extreme events, efforts of humanitarian aid are sufficient ied philosophy, history and social sciences such as severe drought, so that its effects to meet these challenges. at the University of Bonn and was a teacher do not destroy lives and livelihoods. And Here an old principle that applies to between 1974 and 1995. A member of it does not render development or hualmost all areas of life comes into play: the SPD since 1972, she was a member manitarian aid superfluous. Both remain prevention is better than repairing the of the party executive from 1999 to 2009. necessary. Disaster risk financing enables damages after the fact. But who helps Her political activities have focused on the period between crisis prediction and finance prevention? Development environmental and development policy crisis occurrence in the case of sudden assistance considers risks from the loss as well as youth, family welfare and edonset situations, or between crisis occurof crops, soil erosion or price drops. ucation policy. Ms Dieckmann was mayor rence and humanitarian suffering in slow However, funds are often not available of Bonn from 1994 to 2009. onset situations, to be used more effecto prevent a disaster. Humanitarian aid, tively. Funding for drought through the on the other hand, typically responds to FbF mechanism can inject money into the the consequences of a disaster; usually crisis response up to 6 months before a traditional humanitariproviding immediate lifesaving aid after an earthquake, cyclone an response, because there is no need to wait until suffering is or an extreme period of drought. tangible to attract donor funds. They have been pre-committed and are available the moment the model signals a drought of a From early warning to early action particular threshold.

Government agencies, the UN, NGOs, and other local organisations usually warn of an imminent disaster weeks or even months in advance. Quite often, early warning systems and How forecast-based financing works organisations like Welthungerhilfe or its partners sound the Forward-looking action requires contingency plans, which can alarm in good time. However, nothing is done to address the be elaborated in more detailed implementation plans if the impending crisis. No early action follows the early warning. model is triggered. Activities for early action for drought could There is not an abundance of money, and therefore no measinclude: school meals for children, animal feed to protect liveures are taken. Particularly in the case of a slow-onset crisis stock, and cash transfers for families to buy food. This menu of such as a drought, major donors only release the necessary possible activities forms the basis of the Standard Operating funds after dramatic images of starving children and dying Procedures (SOPs). Activities such as these, if provided early, animals reach the mainstream media, and even then, what is can help families maintain their livelihoods in the lean season made available is often too little, too late. In such a scenario, and reduce negative coping strategies such as pulling children

44

Climate Change

its years of “From experience, Welt–

hungerhilfe knows that each euro used before an emergency is four to five times more effective than funds spent after the crisis.” Bärbel Dieckmann

Photo: Barbara Frommann, b.frommann@foto-style.de

out of school, eating seeds, and selling livestock. The main question for such intervention must be: can people still cope with the effects of a hazard and at what point is their very existence threatened?

What is Welthungerhilfe doing today?

Pilot project A first pilot project on humanitarian adaptation to climate change was coordinated by the German Red Cross (DRK) in cooperation with Welthungerhilfe and other partners from 2015 to 2017 in the three high-risk countries of Bangladesh, Mozambique and Peru. Financial support came from the Federal Foreign Office (AA). The aim of the project was to develop special indicators for early warning and SOPs for a disaster caused by draught. To this end, the responsibilities in the respective countries were first examined, climate risk analyses prepared, existing early warning systems improved and new ones set up. The results were discussed on an international dialogue platform and serve as a basis for further projects.

Paradigm shift As a major player in humanitarian aid and development assistance, Welthungerhilfe is contributing to the much-needed paradigm shift within the humanitarian aid system. With its experience, Welthungerhilfe is currently setting up its own project in Madagascar, the first to be led by NGOs and the first to address drought. Indirectly, more than six million men, women and children on the island affected by droughts will benefit from the project, which will develop SOPs in at least three districts and establish a replicable handbook for forecast based financing of drought relief. In the south, there are classic dry zones, but more and more droughts are spreading to other regions. Welthungerhilfe works closely with the national civil protection authority and participating ministries, with universities and climate institutes, with local communities and their representatives, with European and international partners and

other NGO’s. Together they will develop a mechanism that can be applied to other regions or even countries.

The way ahead This process demands a lot of patience, as the concept of pre-positioned finance for early action response to drought is new, and the mechanism can be difficult to understand for those who have spent their lives working in the traditional ‘reactive’ humanitarian system. Despite the efforts needed to set up this pilot and to establish FbF as a mainstream mechanism, the goal is worthwhile. From its years of experience, Welthungerhilfe knows that each euro used before an emergency is four to five times more effective than funds spent after the crisis.

And, more importantly – it allows many more lives to be saved.

i Welthungerhilfe Welthungerhilfe is one of the largest private aid organisations in Germany without political or religious affiliations. Welthungerhilfe fights against global hunger and for sustainable food security. This includes promoting site-oriented agriculture, access to clean water, environmentally friendly energy supplies and improving health and education. Founded in 1962 as an association, Welhungerhilfe was established as an independent foundation in 1998. This legal status makes it possible to retain donors’ capital long-term and use the money for project work. The organisation follows the principle of “help to self-help”, since its actions are guided by the conviction that all people are equal in value, have inalienable rights, and should be able to control their own lives. > Web: www.welthungerhilfe.org

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A new compact for a better life and peace in Africa Global-solutions-to-global-challenges like climate change are our duty

by Judith Helfmann-Hundack, Director for Foreign Trade & Development Policy, German-African Business Association, Berlin/Hamburg*

T

starts at a very young age. Children are forced to create their own toys from tin cans, plastic bottles and other things they find thrown away. I believe it is from this very beginning that the incredible innovations emerge. When we think of innovation, we like to think of the newest mobile phone and its applications, sustainable energy producing technology, or a medical breakthrough. But it is not only these high profile innovations that are impressive in Africa – even though statistics have it that the next Einstein will be African.

he focus in Africa has moved from seeking foreign-solutions-for-African-problems to African-solutions-to-African-challenges. With increasing political stability and factors such as abundant minerals and other natural resources, Africa’s future is promising and rewarding, but not only for these Old stereotypes plague Africa reasons. The population of Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to Everybody cites the massive increase in mobile phone usage. double by 2050, and approximately 40% of the population is What are less spoken about are the phone repair services that currently under the age of 15. To benefit from the demographic have also popped up all over the continent. When you have a dividend, governments must not only mobile phone, you want it to last as long tackle population growth but they need as possible, as it is usually a big investto ensure that the upcoming labor force ment. Here, when your phone breaks, it is well educated, skilled, healthy and ecois normal time to find another one. There, Judith Helfmann-Hundack nomically engaged. On the international that is not always the case. Personally, I has been Director of Foreign Trade & Deagenda, the African Union speaks up for had an old phone that no longer funcvelopment Policy at the German-African the continent when it comes to global valtioned, which I had almost given up on Business Association since 2011 and ue chains and especially climate change, while travelling in Ghana. I came across has been seconded to Afrika-Verein bei demanding adapted cooperative support. a little phone repair shop on a side road GIZ on behalf of BMZ (Federal Ministry and decided to see if they could fix it. A for Economic Cooperation and Develfew minutes later I was given a reconIncredible innovations emerge opment). She studied international law structed phone, working perfectly.

When I tell anyone I have been to Africa, in Germany and China and started her Often firms state that there is a lack of often the first question is ”was it safe?” professional career in 1998 at the Fedskilled workers, but with a little training, Suspicion over the continents’ negative eration of German Industries (BDI) before there are specialists out there who would stereotypes still inhibits investors from joining Ernst & Young. Prior to her current be able to excel. A lot of innovation octravelling there and understanding firstposition, she worked with the Deutsche curs while people are competing to make hand the spirit of innovation that sweeps Investitions- und Entwicklungsgesellschaft a living. Old and almost traditional stereacross the continent. as an Investment Manager for Asia and otypes plague Africa. They may be justiInnovation springs from necessity and it Microfinance.

46

Photo: © Feans, CC BY 2.0, flickr.com

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

Climate Change

being the most important “People resource, the greatest hope and the biggest challenge, education remains critical in all development efforts.”

Judith Helfmann-Hundack

Photo: private

fied to a certain extent, but more importantly there is a culture of innovation and resourcefulness to be utilised by businesses inside and outside the continent. The toy car builders of today will be winning the innovation contests of tomorrow.

An increasingly paradoxical world Scientific and technological advances are a huge leap forward – but, at the same time, there is a striking inability to translate these accomplishments into concrete actions to uphold economic development and maintain peace and security. In the globalised world, we seem to have become more connected than ever before, ironically, we have also become distanced from each other, with a creeping feeling of ”otherness” generated by growing polarisation, inequalities and a lack of human solidarity.

Poverty and hunger persist at horrific levels, conflicts are growing over generations, violence continues to ravage our planet, and climate changes does not respect any borders. Education is the common ground to develop a nation and provide better living conditions. If prioritised, technology and innovation can and will support the education outreach throughout the

continent. The lack of education also fuels the brain drain, forcing the best and the brightest to leave and jump forwards in another society. Basic education for all is needed, as well as opportunities for the best academic minds to make sure excellence is utilised. Currently only 2% of global scientific research comes from Africa.

A new spirit of development cooperation We need to foster African-solutions-for-African-challenges instead of continuous aid, and respect that global-solutions-to-­ global-challenges like climate change are our duty. It seems to be common sense that people are our most important resource when setting up a business, but it is equally true for the development of a country or the whole continent. We need to listen to the people on the ground, asking ”what do you want” instead of pushing ”what you need”.

Currently, we are, for example so intrigued by the start-up environment in many African countries that we want to be ourselves part of it and bask in its glory. By striving to ”help”, we tend to destroy the local scenery instead of supporting continuous growth on its own strengths. We do not listen, because we still do not believe in African-solutions-for-African-challenges.

Human development – health, education, housing and social welfare and, above all, employment – is the number one challenge in Africa, not just in the light of the expected demographic dividend. Governments must create the conditions in which the private sector can flourish.

The two sides of a coin

Children with self-made telephone, Ethiopia Photo: © Rod Waddington, CC BY SA 2.0, Flickr.com

Economic liberalisation is only one piece of the puzzle. The primary responsibility of states remains to ensure that everyone has a decent standard of living, a safe environment and access to basic needs. Among those basic needs, education is the game changer for the younger generation who represent the majority of the population in most countries on the continent.

National plans measured by growth rate only, and neither complemented by appropriate social policies nor resulting in job creation, often lead to growing inequality and social unrest.

A good case in point was Egypt’s development plan before the

47

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

2011 uprising: a high growth rate was achieved, but it was a jobless growth, with little or no impact on poverty alleviation, leading to growing inequality. Most African countries continue to suffer from weak infrastructure, rampant urbanisation, neglected rural areas and an uncompetitive business environment. Plans to develop Africa exist across the continent and worldwide – too often only on paper. A new compact is to focus on support for governments to turn words into deeds and address the issue of implementation.

Acting differently: ColaLife The last mile example: I always wondered why in almost any

Education within good governance People being the most important resource, the greatest hope and the biggest challenge, education remains critical in all development efforts. Quality education has had a transformative effect within little more than a generation everywhere it was introduced. Human capital is crucial to optimising productivity and associated socio-economic benefits that a country can harness from the demographic transition – if not taken care of, the expected dividend inevitably becomes a liability.

Education enables people to acquire skills, experience, learn, get jobs, create employment, foster wealth, take care of their families and surroundings, invent and innovate and allow transformation. A new compact should focus on good governance, accountability and stable economic infrastructure just as much as on an educated youth experiencing African innovation.

remote region of the world I travelled to, I would undoubtedly stumble across Coca-Cola, but life-saving medicine would get stuck in warehouses in the cities. In 2012, ColaLife, a UK-based charity, partnered with local bottling plants and shopkeepers to

* The author was supported by Ms Peggy Schulz, who has

transport antidiarrheal kits to the remote areas of Zambia by

been the Manager for Southern Africa at the German-Afri-

packaging them in the empty space in Coca-Cola crates. The

48

can Business Association since 2016. She is responsible

whole project was planned locally and it shows that change is

for advising companies on the regulatory and economic framework

possible by thinking, designing and acting just a little differently.

conditions for doing business in the Southern African region. She also

> Web: www.colalife.org

heads the Education and Energy Sector.

Climate Change

Perspectives for climate-change stricken Africa

by Gisbert Dreyer, President of the Dreyer Foundation, Berlin

W

ater, the source of life, reaches Africa’s soil in the form of rain during the monsoon season. For thousands of years, the yearly cycle of rainy and dry seasons has shaped life and agriculture in Africa. The few weeks of the monsoon will determine a farming family’s fate. Formerly, the beginning and constancy of the monsoon could be counted on and it allowed for sowing, growth and harvest to be timed accordingly. However, because of climate change, this certainty is dwindling.

photo: dreyer stiftung

Accompanying cooperatives long-term can develop growth potential in African states

are simple, proven hydraulic engineering structures. Such structures commonly consist of a sequence of small earth dams and canals with which the intense rainfalls can be tamed and regulated to become permanent, gentle irrigation for the fields.

This prevents erosion and ensures moisture penetrates the deeper layers of the earth. Small water retention basins are integrated into this system so that intermediate dry spells can be bridged. However, it is not feasible to implement such measures with the current economic and social structures in place.

Obstacles to agricultural development

In many parts of Africa, the use of land by farmers is assigned according to traditional rules, that is, the land is left to individual peasants for the sole use of the tribe, the village community Climate change is becoming tangible or other traditional authorities. A private property right is not As of late, sometimes rain comes too late or there are intermeconnected with this. Above these traditional rights of use, the diate dry periods which cause seeds to wither. Other times, state has a universal property claim. In a conflict between the torrential rains erode the farming grounds, wash away the state and the village, the farmer generally loses all rights and seed and ruin the seedlings. All of those events are disastrous is dispossessed. The ownership issue is one of the biggest for farmers as they not only lose the harvest, but also their obstacles to agricultural development in Africa, as there is no investments in seed and fertiliser. This leaves them starving, legal certainty for private investment and therefore it does not destitute and often in debt. take place.

Africa’s contribution to global Another huge difficulty is that the overwhelming climate change is marginal, majority of farmers only possesses very small despite its 1.3 billion inhabitGisbert Dreyer farmlands, which on their own do not allow for ants. The main contributors are has a career in real estate development and intensification of farming, irrigation systems or the developed, industrialised has carried out many projects in Europe, market access. This is, in short, the main cause countries of the East and West.

Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Since of poverty which cannot be conquered individThe 800 million small farmers 2000, he devotes his free time and financial ually. So, is there a solution for overcoming the of sub-Saharan Africa suffer the resources to the fight against hunger and causes of hunger, poverty and unemployment worst consequences. In West Afripoverty in Africa. The Dreyer Foundation in the rural areas of Africa? Yes, a tried and testca, changes in climate have been focuses its efforts on educational and aged model in Europe and especially in Germany: becoming increasingly tangible in ricultural projects in West Africa. Since an agricultural cooperative. the last ten years.

2010, Mr Dreyer serves as Honorary Consul A single farming family is powerof Burkina Faso. In 2015, he received the less against these recent whims German “Bundesverdienstkreuz am Band” The model of a farmers’ cooperative of nature. The only feasible way (Cross of Merit) for his work in Africa.

With this model – in different forms – millions of for farmers to protect themselves poor farmers in Europe reached relative prosagainst these climatic dangers perity in the 19th and 20th centuries. This mod-

49

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

photo: Dreyer Stiftung, by Alessandra Schellnegger

projects should be “Target defined with a binding

el can be transferred to Africa. With the gradual organisation of farmers in cooperatives and higher-level unions, the problems described above can be overcome. With this approach, the value created will directly benefit the smallholders. Cooperatives, accompanied long-term and protected by donors, can develop growth potential in African states, which also, through secondary and tertiary effects, also give rise to millions of sustainable jobs within and outside of the agricultural sector. In this context, the following prerequisites for a successful agricultural development must also be met: 1. Investment capital for the preparation of fields and procurement of the tools 2. Working capital for seed, fertilisers and other work equipment 3. Qualified workers

i Dreyer Foundation The Dreyer Foundation’s work concentrates and focuses on the Dano region in south-western Burkina Faso. It introduces broad-

financial framework of at least ten to fifteen years.

Without this longevity in planning and financing, the long-term success of development aid in rural areas will fail, and African migration to Europe will continue and increase.”

Gisbert Dreyer

4. Functioning sales markets 5. Transport infrastructure 6. Functional, regional procurement markets for agricultural material 7. An adapted small loan banking system 8. Ideally, a regional full value chain for appropriate products

Financing is the crucial problem The crucial problem, of course, is the financing of the unavoidable basic investment, which can only be provided by wealthy countries. Since experience has shown that such investments are only used effectively in favour of small farmers when the sometimes-corrupt state apparatus has no influence on them, they must be accompanied by investment protection agreements between the beneficiary and recipient countries. This guarantees donor institutions long-term control over their employed capital. It does, however, mean abandoning stagnant principles of development cooperation with incompetent, corrupt state bureaucracies, which are a major reason for the highly unsatisfactory outcome of development aid over the last fifty years. This does not mean abandoning the sovereignty of African states but emphasising the two-sided responsibility.

based projects on several levels to ensure the interaction of each project’s results. The central objective is to enable the Burkinabé

The way ahead together with Europe

to improve their situation based on their own efforts and to provide

Following this cooperative approach also requires a substantial restructuring of European development aid in political and organisational terms. Temporary, isolated and individual measures must disappear in favour of long-term, well thoughtout strategies. Target projects should be defined with a binding financial framework of at least ten to fifteen years. Without this longevity in planning and financing, the long-term success of development aid in rural areas will fail, and African migration to Europe will continue and increase.

them with the opportunity to lead a self-determined life. That is why the Foundation invests not only in water projects but also in schools and training facilities, health care programmes, research projects and, not least, in supporting farm cooperatives. In order to plan the future, all of these activities place a strong focus on the advancement of children and young people. > Web: www.dreyerstiftung.de

50

Security & Defence

Photo: Š www.nato.int

At the NATO summit in Brussels on 11-12 July 2018, Donald Trump bewildered everyone by snubbing and insulting loyal allies.

While he made himself implausible by his continuous inconsistent remarks, the unity of the European Members and Canada has prevented a deeper rift with the US. The allies succeeded in stabilising future strategic plans and achieved a cooperation agreement between NATO and the EU.

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

The foundation of interoperability is mutual confidence Interview with Lieutenant General Jürgen Weigt, Commanding General EUROCORPS, Strasbourg

T

he European: General, for six months now you have been the Commanding General of this first multinational European Army Corps, established in 1992 to respond to the new political situation in Europe and to be an instrument for the EU and its Security and Defence Policy. There is no contradiction in your parallel availability for NATO, but what is EUROCORPS’ role or purpose in the “European Defence Action Plan”?

Jürgen Weigt: Belonging to five Framework Nations (Germany, France, Belgium, Spain and Luxembourg) and being reinforced with contingents from five other associated Nations (Italy, Poland, Turkey, Romania and Greece) make EUROCORPS the most integrated multinational HQ in Europe. Moreover, the above-mentioned Nations are already positioned as major actors in the defence of Europe.

The European: What does this mean in political and operational terms?

Jürgen Weigt: This means that EUROCORPS is in essence a tool of primary interest for these Nations as far as they are in-

52

volved together in future projects connected to the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). Considering that NATO is also guaranteeing European security, EUROCORPS’ duality (as an element of the NATO Force Structure on the one hand and as “preferred military tool” for the EU on the other) is an additional important feature for the HQ to become a key stakeholder in a re-invigorated European defence.

Looking at the 17 projects linked to PESCO, all those related to the Command & Control structure offer new opportunities for EUROCORPS to be used further in an EU framework. As a permanently ready, fully and autonomously deployable HQ, EUROCORPS could easily and efficiently complement the EU chain of command, thus making it comprehensive and fully operational at any time for C2 large scale operations at strategic distance (up to 5000 km).

The European: The headquarters of EUROCORPS are proof of its operational capabilities through several successful engagements. A contingent was recently engaged in Central Africa. In each mission, your leaders and your troops had to cooperate with other units from Nations all over the world. Is interoperability an essential mechanism for effectiveness on the field?

photot: © Bastian Koob/Eurocorps

“We cannot reduce interoperability to a mechanism”

Security & Defence

Lt General Jürgen Weigt has been the Commanding General of Eurocorps since 2017.

Born in 1957, he joined the Bundeswehr in 1977. During his military career, he held different assignments as Commander of a tank brigade and head of Department in the Federal MoD. General Weigt participated in the UN mission in Former Yugoslavia as well as in several NATO led missions in Afghanistan. He took over command of the Army Officer School in Dresden in 2011. Subsequently he was Commander of the Leadership Development and Civic Education Centre in Koblenz and was Chief of Staff Resolute Support Mission Afghanistan in Kabul.

Jürgen Weigt: Our multinational culture and our multinational integration facilitate the interaction with and even the aggregation of military units from other Nations. Of course, interoperability is paramount, but it is a broad term that cannot be reduced to a single pre-arranged mechanism. It entails technological aspects, common tactics, technics and procedures but also an appropriate open-mindedness of the involved personnel to establish and operationalise common standards in theatre.

The European: It seems that you don’t like the word “mechanism”. Could you expand on your understanding of interoperability?

Jürgen Weigt: As you rightly understood, I do not think that we can reduce interoperability to a mechanism. In such a case, this would mean that efficient interoperability could come only from the fact that people “bureaucratically” and thus artificially stick to pre-established procedures and processes enabled by technology (communication systems or computerised management of the battle field for example).

Therefore, sticking to procedures is only one part of interoperability and maybe not the most important one. From my perspective, interoperability is not self-declarable, because a built-up or ad hoc force cannot be fully efficient if it has not been trained before an operation in accordance with the expectable operational features met in theatre. We have to train as we fight; this is somewhat a golden rule.

The European: What does this training encompass?

Jürgen Weigt: It encompasses operational processes but also knowledge and mental aspects of personnel such as flexibility, adaptability, reactivity, resilience. These non-material characteristics are paramount pre-requisites for interoperability, acknowledging that technology and procedures cannot solve everything in combat.

The European: When interoperability is a question of culture and leadership combined with technology, shouldn’t we reflect

on the different qualities of interoperability? I can imagine that interoperability goes in the direction of integration on the basis of human understanding and clear procedures with the necessary technical support.

Jürgen Weigt: As stated above, interoperability or the capacity to operate in an extended multinational context is largely founded on human factors. The mental features I evoked are part of what we call leadership. This is the reason why it is worth developing and improving these aspects on a permanent basis. Finally, for me the real base of interoperability is mutual trust!

On the other hand, I do not think that we should differentiate interoperability in accordance with different possible roles or situations for EUROCORPS. We have to develop, enhance and safeguard identical military capabilities and qualities without making any distinction regarding when, where and why an operation led by EUROCORPS can be launched. Therefore, I do not make any difference between “internal” and “external” interoperability.

The European: When EUROCORPS’ HQ and units are working in the field with units from, for example, the Organisation of the African Union or different national forces, where you didn’t have the chance to train together, it is up to your leaders to be innovative and show capabilities to improvise. Is leadership the human factor for interoperability? Do you agree with my considerations?

Jürgen Weigt: Coming to innovation and improvisation, I am very prudent with these words. Ideally speaking, a thorough preparation of a given operation should prevent from the need to innovate and above all to improvise in theatre. Improvising can even have a negative connotation. In other terms, it could be assessed that improvisation comes from unpreparedness, misunderstanding and even from a lack of proficiency.

The European: Indeed, forces have to be well prepared to face surprise and unexpectedness. However, what if a situation arises that you did not have the chance to prepare for?

Jürgen Weigt: Indeed, this is something else and, in that case, we do not improvise: we adapt and we refine our operational plans to produce the necessary effects to cope with a changing situation. Being able to produce the right decision-making at any time comes from an elevated sense of leadership at each level and this is key. To conclude, improvisation can lead to excessively long-lasting and thus costly operations. And this is one thing that the Nations are normally eager to avoid.

The European: We have heard over the years from diverse sides the unrealistic plea for a “European Army”. Since the decision of the EU Council on the European Action Plan, this request is hopefully buried, allowing realistic ideas. Can you

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

Young officers are being trained by Eurocorps Instructors during the leadership course in Camp Kassai.

imagine a group of multinational Army Corps, Air Force Groups and Naval bodies under a common command one day forming a sort of European Force for the European Union, respecting national cultures, traditions, interests and specialties?

Jürgen Weigt: I monitor political evolutions regarding security and defence in Europe with specific attention. I notice that there is a renewed eagerness to go one step further towards a common European Defence. PESCO, which was endorsed by 25 EU Member States last December, is a concrete illustration that reinvigorating the European Defence process remains possible.

In such a context, my role together with my staff is to develop military analysis considering new political factors. As I men-

or the capacity “Interoperability to operate in an extended

multinational context is largely founded on human factors.”

Jürgen Weigt

tioned above, EUROCORPS can be rapidly and easily integrated in a reinforced EU military chain of command. In broader terms, other military structures already exist all over Europe; their aggregation to constitute a European integrated force is then only a matter of political willingness. We are preparing ourselves to be better employed in an EU framework, but the usage and the deployment for operations stay in the hands of the Nations.

The European: General, during our conservation I have been looking at the Afghan clothing behind your chair, which you

54

photo: © OR-4 Daniel VERDUGO (EUTM RCA)

brought with you from Afghanistan after one of your numerous stays.* We read every day about cruel terrorist attacks and I want to ask you if it is really worthwhile to promote state-building in Afghanistan, provide the country with high engagement ideas and instruments for a better life for the population with the objective of giving them a chance to design the future of their country?

Jürgen Weigt: It goes without saying that after being engaged in Afghanistan for such a long time, it is “under my skin”. In the light of a controversial discussion of Afghanistan as a failed state, prevention measures depend exclusively on internal will and external assistance. Based on personal experience – but I’m not Lawrence of Afghanistan - there is a fair chance to consolidate the majority of the previous warring factions into a single state, build a government capable of accommodating their interests and create a national security force. For me, Afghanistan is neither a failed state nor a dark forgotten country.

Afghanistan may well share similarities with other countries and societies, but these elements need to be documented rather than assumed. There will be no quick and easy solution.

The prospects of bringing stability to Afghanistan depend on whether these problems can be rectified in a way that the Afghans find acceptable.

The European: General, I fully agree with your elaborations, and am grateful for your openness. I wish you every success and good luck for EUROCORPS!

*During his military career LT General Weigt participated in UN missions in Macedonia (FYROM) as well as in several NATO led missions in Afghanistan (Commander RC North, Mazar-E-Sharif, Deputy DCOS Stability, DEU NSE HQ ISAF, Kabul and Chief of Staff Resolute Support Mission Afghanistan, RS HQ (Kabul).

Kolumnentitel

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

Did NATO’s intervention in the Balkans work?

Interview with Gerald Knaus, Chairman of the European Stability Initiative (ESI), Berlin

The European: Mr Knaus, there is an ongoing war in Eastern Ukraine. Syria is in flames. Libya a collapsed state. There are frozen conflicts throughout Eastern Europe, from Moldova to the Caucasus. And yet, the Western Balkans, which saw four wars in the 1990s with millions of people displaced and hundreds of thousands killed, are peaceful. Can NATO claim credit for this? And what does it tell us about the future of intervention?

Gerald Knaus: Intervention can work because it did, in the Balkans in the 1990s. It can lay the foundation for lasting peace.

We saw this in Western Europe after 1945 and again in the Balkans after 1999. The fact that the Balkans have been at peace for more than two decades is remarkable. The fact that FYROM (Former Yugoslavian Republic of Macedonia) is likely to join NATO soon, after finding a difficult compromise on a complex dispute with its Greek neighbour, is striking.

The European: For what reasons did NATO succeed better in the Balkans than elsewhere where it deployed troops?

56

Gerald Knaus: We can distinguish three phases. In 1995, ­NATO’s military intervention tipped the military balance after the three-year war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. US diplomacy then exploited this to negotiate what was essentially a ceasefire. The deployment of 60,000 IFOR troops in 1996 was initially designed to police this cease-fire for one year. As US president Clinton explained at the time, the mission of US troops was to monitor a “zone of separation” between two hostile entities in Bosnia and Herzegovina, each of which kept its independent army. It was to create “breathing room” for the US to arm one of these armies.

After the Kosovo war in 1999 and the fall of Serbian president Slobodan Milos̆ević after protests in Belgrade in 2000, ambitions grew dramatically. The goal became creating a united Bosnian army, a joint intelligence service, and to make the zone of separation inside Bosnia invisible in daily life. This succeeded remarkably well. Finally, following its Thessaloniki summit in summer 2003, the EU made an attractive offer to Balkan elites: to transform the political culture of the region by breaking with the nationalism of the past so that their societies might enjoy peace and prosperity as future members of a united Europe.

The European: You write in your book1 that the many counter-insurgency campaigns, “nation building under fire”, and

Photo: Roger Neslon, CC BY-SA 2.0, flickr.com

What are the lessons for today?

Security & Defence

promise that Western Balkan countries may one day join “The the EU and partake in its promise of prosperity and democratic stability is central to peace in the region.” Gerald Knaus

military occupation are bad. How then did NATO succeed in ending the fighting in the Balkans?

Gerald Knaus: Historian David Edelstein, who studied twenty-six military occupations from 1815 onwards around the world, found that only seven succeeded. We must add Bosnia and Kosovo to that short list. However, NATO never attempted nation-building under fire in the Balkans. NATO deployed its large missions – IFOR, SFOR, KFOR (see box) – only after diplomats had already negotiated peace agreements with all the key powers on the ground. Richard Holbrook wrote in his remarkable book “To Win a War” that “in any case, we would not deploy American or other NATO troops absent ironclad guarantees from all three parties concerning their safety, access and authority.” This meant that NATO was highly risk averse. At the same time, NATO did not withdraw prematurely: IFOR gave way to SFOR, which remained in Bosnia until 2004, and KFOR is still in Kosovo.

The European: Did the diplomats who negotiated peace with the politicians responsible for the war and ethnic cleansing set aside moral principles to get to peace?

Gerald Knaus: The Dayton Peace Agreement recognised the reality of the balance of power in 1995. However, it did not

NATO-led missions in the Western Balkans

accept the legitimacy of ethnic cleansing. The right to return of people and property was a core principle at Dayton. In 1995, this looked like an impossible promise. Right after the war I personally witnessed a lot of violence against returnees. However, the international community never gave up on the idea of returns and allied itself with the hundreds of thousands of displaced Bosnians who felt entitled to their homes. Restitution laws were passed in 1998. After 2000, all two hundred thousand property claims were resolved in four years. If you visit the city of Doboj in the Serb entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina today, you will hear the call to prayer from a reconstructed minaret and see a large number of Bosniak Muslims who returned to their villages.

The European: What was the relationship between the peace making with the very leaders responsible for war crimes and justice, the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) in particular?

Gerald Knaus: This is a fascinating lesson of the Balkan intervention. On the one hand, Western diplomats negotiated with the very leaders responsible for horrific atrocities. Chief US negotiator Richard Holbrooke referred to his relationship with Serbian president Milosevic in 1995 as “bonding with the Godfather.” When asked to sit down with the Bosnian Serb leaders, Holbrooke reminded himself of Swedish diplomat Wallenberg sitting down with Eichmann during the Holocaust to save Hungarian Jews. However, the US and the EU also backed the work of the ICTY.

IFOR (Implementation Force): NATO-led multinational peace enforcement force. Based on UN Security Council Resolution 1031, NATO was given a one-year mandate to implement the military aspects of the Dayton Peace Agreement in Bosnia and Herzegovina. IFOR started its mission on 20 December 1995 (Operation Joint Endeavour).

SFOR (Stabilization Force): Under UN Security Council Resolution 1088 of 12 December 1996, SFOR was authorised to implement the military aspects of the Peace Agreement as the legal successor to IFOR (Operation Joint Guard / Operation Joint Forge). The primary mission of SFOR was to contribute to the safe and secure environment necessary for the consolidation of peace.

KFOR (Kosovo Force): NATO-led international peace-support force responsible for establishing a secure environment in Kosovo (June 1999 – until today). The operations

The European: This court, created by the United Nations in May 1993, had looked impotent for many years, hadn’t it?

Gerald Knaus: When the war in Bosnia came to an end it had only one indicted person in its jail.

But then the court began to have a major impact. It discredited the agenda of fighting wars in the name of ethnic purity. It indicted most war-time leaders. The complex lesson: to make peace, talk to everyone. To get justice, establish a mechanism of accountability that works slowly, but seriously, in the background.

mandate derives from UN Security Council Resolution 1244 and the Military-Technical Agreement between NATO, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and Serbia.

The European: In 2004 NATO handed over the military mission in Bosnia to the European

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

A checkpoint in divided Sarajevo, August 1996. It disappeared a few years later.

Union (EU). Since then the number of international troops has steadily been reduced. What can be learned from this transfer and the fact that today another armed conflict seems impossible?

Gerald Knaus: If nobody expects a new armed conflict, nobody will see a need to prepare for one. Balkan leaders in recent years won elections with the promise of a European future. We saw this recently in FYROM. This vision underpins reconciliation between different groups. Whenever leaders give up on the idea of integration, as was the case of Nikola Gruevski, the former prime minister of FYROM, aggressive nationalism returns. The return of nationalist ideals and indifference to European integration is thus the biggest security threat. Aggressive nationalism is a drug peddled by intellectuals. It is in the realm of ideas that peace must be defended going forward.

The European: If we look at the EU today, is such an offer of full integration of the Balkan region still credible? And what would be the effect if it was to be withdrawn?

Gerald Knaus: The promise that Western Balkan countries may one day join the EU and partake in its promise of prosperity and democratic stability is central to peace in the region. It is vital to the EU’s interests to keep this promise credible. At the same time, this promise requires popular support in European democracies which cannot be taken for granted. Western Balkan leaders need to demonstrate that the eventual accession of their countries will strengthen, not weaken, the EU. This is hard. They need to persuade skeptical audiences in all EU member states. This will take statesmanship. And success is certainly not guaranteed.

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Photo: © Public domain

The European: There are many, particularly in Paris and The Hague, who believe that the EU cannot afford to take in more poor countries with a weak rule of law. There are also serious problems with organised crime and corruption. Will further enlargement not weaken the EU? Gerald Knaus: The Western Balkan states are surrounded by NATO and EU members. They are already “inside”, as became obvious during the 2015 refugee crisis. The main question is how to ensure that they develop strong enough institutions to cooperate with the EU in meeting common challenges. It is crucial for both the EU and the Balkans that the EU strengthens mechanisms to defend the rule of law against challenges and to identify red lines which cannot be crossed by future and current EU members.

The European: How do you explain the recent breakthrough – or at least the recent compromise – in the talks between Skopje and Athens on the name of ‘Macedonia’?

Gerald Knaus: It is the result of courageous leadership in both capitals. Leaders of Greece and of what will become the Republic of Northern Macedonia showed how nations can set aside grievances of the past. Only two years ago FYROM made very different headlines as a country in which journalists were attacked and in which security services illegally wiretapped thousands of people. It had a government fostering worship of Alexander the Great to provoke its Greek neighbours. In April 2017, the parliament was stormed with attacks of opposition MPs. Following this a new government under Prime Minister Zoran Zaev responded to this threat of instability in a constructive way: reaching out to neighbours, both Bulgaria and Greece, and to the EU.

Security & Defence

The European: There are still hurdles to overcome!

Gerald Knaus: The promise that Western Balkan countries may one day join the EU and partake in its promise of prosperity and democratic stability is central to peace in the region: in Skopje a two-thirds majority is needed in parliament to change the constitution. A referendum will be held in the autumn, which supporters of the agreement need to win. Both NATO and the EU have an interest in this succeeding.

The European: You mention that Bosnia has had a series of democratic elections since 1996. But is this enough, given that ethnically based parties keep winning these elections? Will the elections in 2018 be any different?

Gerald Knaus: ESI wrote a lot on the powerful clichés about Bosnia and Herzegovina2. The view that nothing ever changes there is such a cliché. In fact, compared to other countries in South East Europe, Bosnia has had many alternations in power, in all positions and at all levels. It has held seven general elections since the end of the war: in 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. Bosnian voters are no more obsessed with ethnicity than citizens in other multi-ethnic countries in Europe.

The European: What does Bosnia need now for stability and progress?

Gerald Knaus: A credible promise that if elections in autumn 2018 go well, the next government formed has a chance to quickly begin accession talks with the EU. This would give the

EU the leverage it needs to support much-needed reforms.

The European: What about the influence of Russia in the Balkans? Does Russia have an interest to undermine the Euro-Atlantic integration of the region?

Gerald Knaus: Russia does not like to see NATO and the EU expand. However, whatever NATO, the EU and Balkan leaders decide, Moscow has not been able to stop accession: not in Albania, not in Montenegro, and it is very likely that it will not succeed in FYROM either. All the EU and NATO need to do to win in the Balkans is to play their cards right.

The promise of a future as members of the transatlantic community is a powerful incentive, as long as it remains credible.

Russia has nothing comparable to offer.

The European: Mr Knaus, let me thank you for this very insightful conversation.

The Interview was conducted by Hartmut Bühl in Berlin Gerald Knaus is the author (with Rory Steward) of Can Intervention Work? ­ (www.caninterventionwork.org). Mr Knaus worked for many years for international organisations in post-war Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo. He has lectured on the lessons from the Balkan intervention at the NATO Defence College in Rome.

1

2

See: https://tinyurl.com/ybfkkw2f

> Web: www.esiweb.org

Gerald Knaus (right) and Hartmut Bühl met for their conversation in Berlin, June 2018

Photo: G. Knaus

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documentation

THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

A NATO Summit in unpredictable times (ed/ak, Berlin) On 11-12 July, the 29 Allied Heads of State and Government met in Brussels agreeing on a range of topics to further strengthen NATO. Amongst others, the NATO members committed to a Readiness Initiative, the so called “four thirties”: 30 mechanised battalions, 30 air squadrons, and 30 combat vessels ready to use within 30 days or less by 2020. Also, the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) in Belgium will be upgraded with a new Cyber Operations Centre. Regarding the much discussed defence spending, the Secretary General reported that all Allies

Future directions for the Alliance amidst disagreements between its members.

are committed to reach the 2% objective

UK Prime Minister Theresa May (centre) next to NATO General Secretary Jens

in the short or medium term.

Stoltenberg, Brussels, 11.7.2018

A day before the beginning of the NAT0 Summit, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, European Council President Donald Tusk and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker signed a Joint Declaration on cooperation between NATO and the European Union. The declaration welcomes “EU efforts to bolster European security and defence to better protect the Union and its citizens and to contribute to peace and stability in the

Photo: © NATO

“

But many of the challenges we face blur the line between peace, crisis and conflict. So today, we set up new counter-hybrid support teams. NATO experts will stand ready to Support Allies in areas like cyber defence, counter-propaganda, and Jens Stoltenberg energy security.”

neighborhood and beyond”, and states that

60

the Permanent Structured Cooperation and

Alliance and are undermining Euro-Atlantic

Summit with four consecutive years of real

the European Defence Fund contribute to

security and the rules-based international

growth in non-US defence expenditure. […]

these objectives.

order. Instability and continuing crises

17. We are committed to strengthening our

across the Middle East and North Africa are

ability to deploy and sustain our forces and

Excerpts from the Brussels Summit

fuelling terrorism. They also contribute to

their equipment, throughout the Alliance

Declaration

irregular migration and human trafficking.

and beyond, and aim to improve military

1. […] NATO remains the foundation for

The ongoing crisis in Syria has a direct

mobility by land, air, or sea as soon as

strong collective defence and the essential

effect on the stability of the region and

possible, but no later than 2024. […]

transatlantic forum for security consulta-

the security of the Alliance as a whole. We

70. We have achieved tangible results in a

tions and decisions among Allies. The Alli-

face hybrid challenges, including disinfor-

range of areas, including countering hybrid

ance will continue to pursue a 360-degree

mation campaigns and malicious cyber

threats, operational cooperation including

approach to security and to fulfil effectively

activities. The proliferation of weapons of

maritime issues, cyber security and de-

all three core tasks as set out in the Stra-

mass destruction and advanced missile

fence, defence capabilities, defence indus-

tegic Concept: collective defence, crisis

technology also continues to threaten the

try and research, exercises, and defence

management, and cooperative security. […]

security of our nations. In light of all this,

and security capacity building. Political

2. We face a dangerous, unpredictable, and

our unity and solidarity are stronger than

dialogue between NATO and EU remains

fluid security environment, with enduring

ever; we will take all necessary steps to

essential to advance this cooperation. […]

challenges and threats from all strategic

ensure our collective defence.

directions; from state and non-state actors;

3. […] Fair burden sharing underpins the

> Web:

from military forces; and from terrorist, cy-

Alliance’s cohesion, solidarity, credibility,

ber, and hybrid attacks. Russia’s aggressive

and ability to fulfil our Article 3 and Article

https://bit.ly/2mb5ZUo

actions, including the threat and use of

5 commitments. We welcome the con-

force to attain political goals, challenge the

siderable progress made since the Wales

https://bit.ly/2NgdlBw

NATO summit declaration: Joint EU-NATO declaration:

Security & Defence

GUEST COMMENTARY

European Defence: the time to act

by Ioan Mircea Pașcu MEP, Vice-President of the European Parliament Brussels/Strasbourg

The new world order is being born under our very eyes. Once again, the process of power redistribution within the international system – initiated by the end of the Cold War and accelerated by the recent economic and financial crisis – has sped up the appearance of new, emerging power centres competing with the established ones in this crystallising new world order. The established “institutional architecture” created at the end of World War II is basically still in place, but for how long, given the pressure exercised at both the political-military level (see Russia’s assertiveness) and, more recently, at the commercial-economic one (see the looming “trade wars”), no one really knows...

In this “brave new world” currently taking shape, the EU – a multilateral actor – is confronted with both opportunity and challenge; on the one hand, the EU still has the power to preserve the system, being looked upon as such by many, on the other, the very basis of this power – derived from the prosperity generated by free trade – is being challenged by the “trade wars” approaching on the horizon. Besides, no one can predict how long it will take before such “trade wars” provoke another world crisis and/or even real wars in some parts of the world.

The “America First” slogan appears to indicate that the US is on the verge of abandoning “multilateralism” and the associated principle of “collective leadership” in favor of pursuing only its individual national interest, a situation in which the EU might no longer be seen primarily as a partner, but rather as a commercial competitor, multiplying the question marks around the transatlantic relationship.

In a continuously deteriorating security environment, the time has come for the EU to accelerate the move from words to deeds, from nice, inspiring speeches on the value of common security and defence to concrete, material steps strengthening the two, building upon the trend already in place.

In that respect, assuring real interoperability in the field between the forces of EU Member States and an invigorated political will to act together would ensure that the EU is capable of delivering the security and defence its citizens are asking for. To that effect, for instance, the recent EU initiatives related to the two windows of the newly established European Defence Fund – research and capabilities – can spark the necessary cooperation in the defence industry capable of providing the compatible equipment we all need in important fields like Communication, C2, air transport, CBRN etc. At the same time, PESCO projects will also develop much needed defence capabilities.

deteriorating “In a continuously security environment, the time has come for the EU to accelerate the move from words to deeds.”

As long as 22 of the current EU Member States are NATO members too, basing their defence – both “de facto” and “de jure” – on the Atlantic Alliance, the strengthening of their military capabilities is contributing equally to both EU defence and security as well as to NATO. Therefore, the collaboration between the two organisations – the EU and NATO – particularly in the fields of cyber defence and military mobility, will remain pivotal to the defence and security of our continent.

Mr Pascu was Defence Minister of Romania before becoming a Member of the European Parliament in 2007.

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THE EUROPEAN – SECURITY AND DEFENCE UNION

publication

“Defence: Europe’s awakening” (Ed/nc, Paris) On 22 May, the Robert Schuman Foundation published a policy paper entitled “Defence: Europe’s awakening”. The four authors of this paper analyse the new European dynamic in the area of defence, mainly due to the need to respond to new international threats and to a worsening security situation in Europe. The policy paper provides a review of recent developments in “European defence” – from real progress to persistent challenges – and suggests a direction to follow so that this dynamic does not die out.

Excerpts: The role of France “Europe’s awakening is real. Rising uncertainty, threats and strategic surprises have pushed it to making a response. […] For a long time, France was alone in its evocation of a “Powerful Europe”, which takes responsibility for itself and has the military tools that allow it a level of diplomatic influence on a par with its economic strength. In these first European decisions France has found some reasons to be satisfied. […]

However, it hopes to go further and complete the Permanent

French President Emmanuel Macron in discussion with Ger-

Structured Cooperation of 25 and its capability programmes

man Chancellor Angela Merkel at the 28th June meeting of the

by suggesting to its partners joint work in the preparation

European Council. In their conclusions, Heads of States and

of the response given to strategic surprises and operational

Government welcomed progress on European military mobility

requirements.”

in the framework of PESCO and EU-NATO cooperation

Jean-Dominique Giuliani, President of the Robert Schuman

Photo: © European Union / Mario Salerno

Foundation Strategic unpredictability

co-finance defence projects directly and community co-financ-

“Not only did Brexit raise a deep existential question across the

ing will aim to encourage the Member States to invest more

Union as a whole, but from a specific point of view, in terms of

financially in projects that might be beneficial to them in both

defence policy, it raised theories that have been debilitating for

the short and long-term.”

more than a decade. The election of Trump followed by often

Françoise Grossetête MEP, Rapporteur for the European

untimely declarations has for its part lent credibility to the

Parliament Report on the European Defence Fund

hypothesis which Europeans had never fully absorbed, of a detachment, even of a possible strategic divergence, between the

The shape of a defence identity

old continent and its American “protector”. [...] More than the

“The last three or four years have undeniably modified the

rise of threats that were identified several years ago, it was the

European view of defence and the Union has succeeded in

sudden eruption of strategic unpredictability, both domestic

attracting attention that it had not enjoyed previously. The ini-

and transatlantic, which convinced European leaders to react

tiatives taken should be turned into reality and tested, notably

and revive some defence policy tools that had been virtual to

from an operational point of view, i.e. in terms of the Europe-

date which were far from being political priorities.”

ans’ ability to shape a defence identity through a presence

Arnaud Danjean MEP, Member and former Chair of the

in places where European interests are under threat. […] The

European Parliament Subcommittee Security and Defence

fact that ambitions are high is not new in itself, and progress observed goes beyond declared intentions. But the demon-

European defence budgets

stration of a Europe that protects, including through defence,

“The Member States’ total defence budget has been declining

remains to be accomplished.”

for a long time, unlike those of other world actors such as Chi-

Thierry Tardy, Director Research Division, NATO Defence

na and Russia. The difference between the total of the budget

College, Rome.

devoted to defence between the USA and the EU is double.

This should be a warning to us since the other powers will not wait for us to develop the best technology for them to defend

62

themselves and they will be present when their strategic inter-

> Web Policy Paper:

ests are at stake. […] For the very first time, with the European

(en) https://bit.ly/2mpdbMo

Defence Fund, community money will be used to support and

(fr) https://bit.ly/2GHJWw4

BSC

Berlin Security Conference

17 t h C o n g r e s s o n E u r o p e a n S e c u r i t y a n d D e f e n c e

Berlin Security Conference 2018

European Security and Defence – remaining transatlantic, acting more European

27 – 28 November 2018, Vienna House Andel’s Berlin

Photos: Dombrowsky

Visit us on Europe’s le ading even for Europe t an Security and Defence

Impressions of the BSC 2017

The Berlin Security Conference One of the largest yearly events on European Security and Defence Meeting place for up to 1 000 participants from more than 50 countries International forum for members of parliament, politicians and representatives of the armed forces, security organisations and industry Partner in 2018: The Netherlands Former Partners: Russia, United Kingdom, Turkey, USA, France, Sweden Exhibitions with companies from Europe and abroad Organised by the – Germany’s leading independent Newspaper for the Civil and Military Services

Further Information:

www.euro-defence.eu