Real Estate
Navigating the Real Estate Seesaw: Is There Finally Equilibrium? By Joseph Callaway Are we back to a balanced market? Okay, let’s get ready to do some tricky math. First, what is a balanced market? Some markets are referred to as a sellers’ market which means there is a shortage of inventory and an excess of buyers. This is what we’ve experienced in recent years leading to complacent sellers who felt they could sell easily, or even sell to an investor or direct buyer for top dollar. With only 7,000 homes for sale, buyers were frustrated with bidding wars and a seller preference for cash buyers. Prior to this sellers’ market we had a buyers’ market with as many as 60,000 homes for sale and buyers putting in less than full price offers, which often got accepted. Before these two wild swings, we had a balanced mar-
ket. For those of you who can’t remember, a balanced market is just the right number of homes for sale to meet the number of buyers looking to buy. Sellers can still get what they deserve, and buyers can still find and buy a home. That market was an inventory of 20,000 homes for sale in Maricopa County. Now here is the tricky math part.
read that back. Today, inventory is just over 14,000 homes. If this premise is correct, we are finally back to a balanced market. The last balanced market lasted 14 years, from 1990 to 2004. It is the best of all possible worlds because most sellers are also buying, and now they can do so with ease and confidence.
All this is based on demand for about 7,000 to 8,000 homes sold per month. Well, that demand is down about 30% since interest rates took a dramatic upward turn. So, is the 20,000-inventory valid with a sustained reduction in demand? What if we reduce that 20,000 by 30% to match the drop in demand? Well, that takes us to 14,000 homes for sale being a balanced market. Got it? Feel free to
Let’s hope my math is right, because if it is, we are about to enjoy a surety in real estate that’s been missing for a long time. Cheers. Joseph Callaway is with Those Callaways eXp Realty and has been selling houses in The Magic 85254 Zip Code for more than 26 years.
Phoenix Developer Proposes Large Commercial Center Near Desert Ridge
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hoenix-based developer Vestar has announced plans for a new grocery-anchored commercial center in the fast-growing Desert Ridge area, slated to span nearly 140,000 square feet. The proposed development will include a 96,000-square-foot grocery store, 28,900 square feet dedicated to shops, and 13,000 square feet of retail pads. Situated 17 miles southeast of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. project, the center will occupy the southwest corner of Deer Valley Road and Black Mountain Boulevard, adjacent to Pinnacle High School.
In a recent meeting with Pinnacle High School authorities, Vestar emphasized prioritizing student safety and prospective center patrons. “That was one of the comments that came up during our meeting with the superintendent and principal — to better the site plans so we can ensure the safety of the neighboring students and hopeful patrons of the center,” a Vestar representative commented. While the identity of the grocery tenant remains undecided, options include Safeway, Whole Foods, Sprouts Farmers Market, Trader Joe’s, or Fry’s. The new center aims to serve an area with limited
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grocery options. Currently, Albertson’s, located at Vestar’s Desert Ridge Marketplace, is the sole grocery store covering a 21-square-mile expanse north of the Loop 101 and east of Interstate 17. Traveling further north reveals only a Fry’s and Safeway in Cave Creek. However, due to zoning requirements, the grocery store can’t exceed 99,000 square feet. This restriction prevents the establishment of big-box retailers like Target or Walmart in the area.
development, others voice support, especially given Vestar’s commitment to local infrastructure improvements. The developer has pledged over $5 million for off-site street enhancements, encompassing the expansion of Mayo Boulevard with two lanes in each direction. The improvements will also feature dedicated turn lanes, a 24-foot-wide landscaped median, a wrought-iron median fence, and a lighted pedestrian crossway to ensure community safety.
The project’s announcement has stirred mixed reactions among locals. While some residents oppose the
As indicated in city records, Phoenix’s planning commission will cast their vote on the project come November 2. myhyperlocalnews.com
