Involve rapport justdiggit 205 2016

The Justdiggit Project: What’s in it and for whom?

An empirical case study of the socioeconomic environment in Tanzania Involve 2016 September 16, 2016 Abstract This paper is an empirical case study of the socioeconomic environment in the Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania. It provides a framework for the effects of the Justdiggit’s project, which commits itself to preserving and restoring ecosystems in Africa.

In order to create an extensive overview, the paper addresses both direct and important indirect effects. The effects are divided into several levels: first, second, third and fourth degree effects. The socioeconomic impact of each effect in the Kilimanjaro area is researched, and where possible, quantified. Moreover this study offers a framework to determine the socioeconomic impact in other areas. The key direct (first degree) effects looked into are more soil moisture and less erosion. They bring about a chain of second degree effects, namely increased crop yield, more grasslands and less floods. The influence of these improvements on health, buildings, infrastructure and education are researched. Aside from effects on tangibles, also the effects on intangibles such as social relations are examined even though these are not quantified.

Key words— Justdiggit, hydrological corridor, Kilimanjaro region, socioeconomic

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Contents 1 Introduction 2 Theoretical Framework 2.1 First Degree Effects . . .

2.1.1 Soil Moisture . .

2.1.2 Erosion . . . . .

2.2 Second Degree Effects .

2.2.1 Crop Yield . . . .

2.2.2 Grassland . . . .

2.2.3 Floods . . . . . .

2.3 Third Degree Effects . .

2.3.1 Education . . . .

2.3.2 Infrastructure . .

2.3.3 Buildings . . . .

2.3.4 Health . . . . . .

2.4 Fourth Degree Effects . .

2.4.1 Economic Growth 2.4.2 Social Relations .

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3 Methodology 3.1 General Methodology . . . .

3.1.1 Theoretical Research 3.1.2 Field Research . . .

3.2 Crop Yield . . . . . . . . . .

3.2.1 Theoretical Research 3.2.2 Field Research . . .

3.3 Grassland . . . . . . . . . .

3.3.1 Theoretical Research 3.3.2 Field Research . . .

3.4 Floods . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.4.1 Theoretical Research 3.4.2 Field Research . . .

3.5 Education . . . . . . . . . .

3.5.1 Theoretical Research 3.6 Health . . . . . . . . . . . .

3.6.1 Field Research . . .

3.7 Infrastructure . . . . . . . .

3.7.1 Theoretical Research 3.7.2 Field Research . . .

3.8 Buildings . . . . . . . . . .

3.8.1 Theoretical Research 3.8.2 Field Research . . .

3.9 Social Relations . . . . . . .

3.9.1 Theoretical Research 3.9.2 Field Research . . .

3.10 Economic Growth . . . . . .

3.10.1 Theoretical Research

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4 Results 4.1 Crop Yield . . . . . . . . . . .

4.1.1 Theoretical Results . .

4.1.2 Field Research Results 4.2 Grassland . . . . . . . . . . .

4.2.1 Theoretical Results . .

4.2.2 Field Research Results 4.3 Floods . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.3.1 Theoretical Results . .

4.3.2 Field Research Results 4.4 Buildings . . . . . . . . . . .

4.4.1 Theoretical Results . .

4.4.2 Field Research Results 4.5 Infrastructure . . . . . . . . .

4.5.1 Theoretical Results . .

4.5.2 Field Research Results 4.6 Health . . . . . . . . . . . . .

4.6.1 Theoretical Results . .

4.6.2 Field Research Results 4.7 Education . . . . . . . . . . .

4.7.1 Theoretical Results . .

4.7.2 Field Research Results 4.8 Social Relations . . . . . . . .

4.8.1 Theoretical Results . .

4.8.2 Field Research Results 5 Conclusion 5.1 Crop Yield . . . .

5.2 Grassland . . . .

5.3 Floods . . . . . .

5.4 Buildings . . . .

5.5 Infrastructure . .

5.6 Health . . . . . .

5.7 Education . . . .

5.8 Social Relations .

5.9 Economic Growth

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6 Discussion

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A Appendix A A.1 Stone lines . . . . . . . . . . .

A.2 Elements de banquettes . . .

A.3 Compost . . . . . . . . . . . .

A.4 Spate irrigation system . . .

A.5 Vallerani or Yeomans ploughs A.6 Training and capacity building A.7 Testing new innovations . . .

A.8 Waterbox (right) . . . . . . .

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1

Introduction

‘No region has done less to contribute to global warming than Africa. Yet Africa is suffering from some of the earliest and most damaging effects of climate change. If left unchecked, climate change will turn vast areas of productive land in Africa into dust bowls, creating widespread hunger and mass displacement of rural populations’. Kofi Annan, former Secretary-General of the United Nations, addressed the major impact of climate change on Africa at the International Economic Forum on Africa in 2015.

Africa is thought to be the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and climate change. Agriculture plays a vital role in supporting rural livelihoods and economic growth over most of Africa [Challinor et al., 2007]. Therefore, combating climate change and its consequences in Africa is a very pressing issue.

Justdiggit is a non-profit organisation that commits itself to preserving and restoring ecosystems in Africa on a scale of up to 20,000 km2 . In order to reach this goal, they apply a variety of rainwater-harvesting techniques and conservation methods at strategically chosen locations. In short, these techniques will lead to increased soil moisture and plant growth, which results in increased water retention capacity. If carried out on a large enough scale, the strategically chosen locations will interact and create a so-called hydrological corridor that has the capacity to mitigate climate change [Borst et al., 2015].

This paper aims to provide a framework for the effects of Justdiggit’s efforts. No past research has been done on the large variety of effects the Justdiggit project might have.

Creating a framework that captures an extensive yet concrete overview of all the consequences helps to value Justdiggit’s efforts. The following research question is addressed: What are the direct and important indirect effects of the Justdiggit project in the Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania?

The research focuses on the Kilimanjaro region in particular. The Kilimanjaro region is part of the East African Corridor and is considered as a reliable sample for this hydrological corridor as a whole. In order to be able to perform field research, a specific sample area had to be chosen. The framework will be applicable to any hydrological corridor created by Justdiggit, although variable factors such as culture may cause differences in the outcome of the framework.

In order to create an extensive view of the effects of the efforts of Justdiggit, this paper addresses both direct and important indirect effects. The theoretical framework that follows this introduction explains the theory behind the direct effects of the Justdiggit project. In addition to this, the second, third and fourth degree indirect effects that are examined within this research and its different stakeholders are presented. The third section describes the methods used to determine the value of each of the researched effects. After the methodology, the results of the research are presented. The research paper concludes with an interpretation of the results and recommendations for further research.

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2

Theoretical Framework

The theoretical framework focuses on identifying and explaining all effects of the Justdiggit project. This report thus addresses the consequences of Justdiggit’s work directly rather than go into depth about the general effects of climate change.

Justdiggit uses a variety of rainwater-harvesting techniques and conservation methods.

More information about these methods can be found in appendix A. These measures will have a direct effect on certain phenomenon that will influence a variety of factors on its turn. All these effects are considered to be indirect effects of Justdiggit’s efforts.

The following section will provide more theory on the direct and indirect effects. The first-degree direct effects, and the second, third and fourth degree indirect effects will be discussed. Next to this, stakeholders will be differentiated for all indirect effects based on a stakeholder analysis as defined by Roberts MJ Hsiao W [2008]. The identification of groups and individuals relevant to the policy issue of focus, and the determination of the current position of each stakeholder on the issue will be done based on literature and presented below. After all research is conducted, conclusions will be drawn about the true influence the effects have on each stakeholder.

All identified effects have been summarised in picture 1. All relationships will be discussed in the text below. The structure is built upon a division of degrees. Note that this is only a starting point for the structure of the paper. There is a lot of coherence among the different effects. As a consequence, the possibility arises for an x degree effect, to also be a consequence of an x+1 degree effect, thus being an x+2 degree effect.

Figure 2: Step 1: execution of Justdiggit project

2.1

First Degree Effects

The first-degree effects of the Justdiggit project that this paper addresses are determined to be an increase in soil moisture and a reduction in erosion. Different scientific researches 4

confirm that these measures ensure more water to infiltrate into the ground leading to increased soil moisture and plant growth when performed on a large scale. Walker et al.

[2005], Wei et al. [2005], and Mupangwa et al. [2006] state that rainwater harvesting systems show a variable but positive impact on soil moisture regimes and, in its turn, on crop yields. In addition to this, a decrease in erosion is determined to be another direct effect. Water retention reduces erosion since it prevents surface runoff [Borst et al., 2015].

Another direct effect is an increase in employment, considering the rainwater harvestingtechniques and methods create extra jobs. This effect is not taken into account because the amount of jobs the project creates is unknown at this point in time. Moreover it is an unsustainable effect.

The increase of soil moisture and decrease of erosion itself are not examined in this research because of the technical nature of these subject and the amount of research already done on this topic. This paper addresses theory on these subjects since these first-degree effects are fundamental for all following effects and hence cannot be left out of this report completely.

2.1.1

Soil Moisture

One of the first-degree effects of the Justdiggit project is increased soil moisture. This is a result of the Justdiggit project, as water will be stored in the holes that are dug in the ground allowing it more time to infiltrate into the ground. Soil moisture can be defined as “the water contained in the unsaturated soil zone” [Hillel, 1998]. It is one of the key variables for climate systems, according to Seneviratne et al. [2010]. One of the main functions of soil moisture is the storage of precipitation, e.g. rainfall. Besides, soil moisture is involved in climate-change projections as it enables a more equally distribution of water to vegetation over time [Seneviratne et al., 2010].

Moreover, Tuinhof et al. [2012] discuss soil moisture conservation. They name four ways of water buffering, which they applied to several cases with estimation of the costs and benefits of the different projects. Those four water-buffering techniques are: groundwater recharge, soil moisture conservation, rainfall harvesting and surface water storage [Tuinhof et al., 2012]. Although all the techniques are discussed, the second one, soil moisture conservation, is most relevant to the Justdiggit project. The rainwater collected will only go into the ground a few meters, making it a great technique for soil conservation on root level. It makes it especially beneficial for agriculture. However, because the water only goes a few meters into the ground, it is not easily extracted for other purposes. “Therefore, soil moisture retention is best used in agricultural areas” [Tuinhof et al., 2012]. The benefits include increased crop yield and support to a wider range of crops, water saving, as well as the protection of fertile soil on the land that leads to reduced fertilizer costs [Tuinhof et al., 2012]. The effects of soil moisture retention on crop yield will be discussed below.

2.1.2

Erosion

Another first-degree effect of the Justdiggit project is the reduction of erosion. Erosion results from energy transmitted from, among others, rainfall and wind. In most areas, raindrop splash and sheet erosion are the dominant forms of erosion. In raindrop splash erosion, raindrops hit exposed soil with an explosive effect, launching soil particles into the air. Sheet erosion arises when rainwater washes over the land, in a sheet, and erodes the land in its way [Pimentel et al., 1995].

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Erosion has two types of negative effects: on-site and off-site. On-site effects have to do with vegetation. Due to the fact that soil is washed away, it causes a decline in vegetation in five principle ways: (1) the effective depth in which plants can root is reduced, (2) the loss of nutrients (mostly nitrogen) that are present in the eroded soil, (3) the loss of water in the soil (reduced soil-moisture) (4) loss of land area, and (5) damage to seeds [Lal, 1998]. The loss of fertile soil, in turn, leads to a reduction of biological productivity.

Moreover, the water from sheet erosion can form floods (which is discussed later in this paper), damaging more than just soil, causing the off-site effects [Borst et al., 2015]. To many bygone civilizations, the loss in soil quality has been a real problem. It has also been named as an important factor in the low growth in world food output in the 1980s and 1990s [Lal, 1998].

Both sheet- and raindrop erosion can be reduced by the Justdiggit project. As a first-degree effect, retaining the water directly in the dug holes reduces sheet erosion. In a later stage, through the soil-conserving effect of vegetation (see second-degree effects), the Justdiggit project reduces this kind of erosion even further. Because of the roots of plants, the soil is less susceptible to erosion. Also raindrop splash erosion is reduced by more vegetation. Because raindrops hit plants instead of directly hitting the soil, the soil is not launched into the air. This effect of new vegetation on erosion creates a positive feedback loop, enhancing the effect of the Justdiggit project [Borst et al., 2015] and [Temple, 1972].

Figure 3: Step 1: execution of Justdiggit project

2.2

Second Degree Effects

From the first-degree effects, multiple second-degree effects follow. Both an increase in soil moisture and a reduction in erosion lead to more available water in the ground and the prevention of important nutrition and seeds from running off. Together they lead to more and more diversified crops and grassland. Next to this, the decrease in water running away directly causes a reduction in floods. The secondary effects of the Justdiggit project are discussed in three sections: crop yield, grasslands and floods.

Please note that an increased amount of soil moisture and reduction of erosion do not only have an impact on agricultural food crops, grassland and floods. Crops which can be grown as a result of the Justdiggit project, but which are non-food crops, such as tobacco, cotton and timber, can also benefit from this project. However, those effects are not discussed any further in this paper, as the amount of land that is used for non-food crops is only very small in Tanzania [Maghimbi, 2007]. In addition to this, companies in the industrial sector can benefit from the Justdiggit project. According to Postel and Thompson [2005], industrial production increases with a better water availability. They 6

can use the water, which is stored in the holes that are dug for their production process, but this goes beyond the scope of this paper.

Two other consequences of the direct effects mentioned are a possible increase in tourism and climate change effects. When the soil becomes more fertile the biodiversity will increase as well. Due to this increase the scenic beauty of the land will improve, which makes it better suitable for tourism [Postel and Thompson, 2005]. This effect is not taken into account in this paper as the changes in biodiversity are difficult to measure and the effects of the Justdiggit project on tourism are expected to be rather small.

Concerning climate change effects, scientific research by Wageningen University shows that as a result of the Justdiggit project, the local and regional climate of the restored land changes. It is expected that the Justdiggit project will lead to an increased amount of rainfall, especially in the transitional periods from dry to wet season and vice versa [ter Maat et al., 2016]. However, these effects are not explained any further in this paper, as this is a very technical process and the effects are beyond the scope of the economical valuation.

2.2.1

Crop Yield

Soil moisture has a strong influence on crop production [Schiebel and Hasse, 2015]. This happens in several ways: soil moisture can provide a buffer and ensure water availability to plants, even in periods without rainfall. This enables plants to grow during those dry periods.

One of the benefits of the Justdiggit project is an increased crop yield rate and more secure agriculture. This makes it possible to grow other species of crops that are normally not grown due to their stress sensitivity, such as fruit trees. This allows for differentiation and the start of new economic activity [Tuinhof et al., 2012].

The two aforementioned effects are expected to lead to several effects, which affect the stakeholders in the region where the Justdiggit project is implemented.

Based on data from 2012, a total number of 1,640,087 people lived in the Kilimanjaro Region [of Statistics, 2014]. Approximately 76% of them live in the rural area, whereas the other 24% is situated in the urban area. 60.4% of all people in the Kilimanjaro Region, a total number of 436,082, work as a farmer. Another 17,790 are livestock keepers which is 2,5% of the people in the region [of Statistics, 2014].

Research in the Pangani River Basin, which covers most of the Kilimanjaro Region, has proven that agricultural income in the peri-urban areas of Tanzania has been relatively big historically [Lanjouw et al., 2001]. It shows non-agricultural income accounts for only ten per cent of total income while 35% consists of the essential subsistence level, 50% is made by growing crops and 5% by keeping livestock. Since the northern part of the Pangani river reservoir near Mount Kilimanjaro and Moshi is merely a peri-urban area this can also be stated for the East African corridor [Schlesinger et al., 2015]. The slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro specifically are among the most densely populated areas of Tanzania while the southern part of the corridor is a more rural area.

On the highlands (1200-1800m) primarily coffee beans and bananas are grown intercropped with other food crops on small patches of land. The ownership of these home gardens (20% of the surface) can only be passed by inheritance. Due to this land scarcity and population pressure have increasingly caused the home gardens to get smaller and therefore less profitable [Misana et al., 2012]. On the lowlands on the other hand, maize, beans and rice next to sunflowers, groundnuts and millet are the most important crops grown. Since the ownership of these fields (70% of the surface) can be bought these tend 7

to be big [Misana et al., 2012]. Contrarily also the smallest fields can be found on the lowlands. The owners of these fields tend to be young or old farmers who never inherited a home garden. Lack of capital often forces them to rend land if they wish to expand [Soini et al., 2006].

Farmers in the region tend to diversify a lot. This led them to the drier lowlands that were previously considered unsuitable for permanent settlement due to inadequate rains.

When selling these other farm products these farmers suffer from the lack of sufficiently large markets for such products. For these reasons the lowlands farmers form the most vulnerable group. Forty per cent of the farmers consider decreasing rainfall or droughts as a significant problem [Soini et al., 2006]. Drought can force farmers to explore nonagricultural labour opportunities.

There has been an overall decrease and fragmentation of bush lands that reduced the area used for grazing and firewood collection [Soini et al., 2006]. The original forest became an agro forestry system wherein livestock is stall-fed in the highlands and grazed freely in the lowlands.

The largest farms in the Kilimanjaro area are the Tanganyika Planting Company (TPC - 16,000 ha) and the Kilimanjaro Agricultural Development Programme (KADP 6,320 ha). TPC is a privatized, mostly western owned company situated south of Moshi producing large amounts of sugarcane in the Kilimanjaro region that is also the biggest agricultural stakeholder identified. TPC owns 16,000 hectares of land of which half is used for the cultivation of sugarcane. This is mostly due to bad soil conditions to grow crops. However, a lack of water is not mentioned as the source of this problem. TPC uses the other half of their land for a nature reserve area and their company buildings.

On its own, TPC produces one third (100,000 tonnes) of the total sugarcane cultivated in Tanzania, which it sells for 70 dollar per 100 kg. TPC harvests throughout the year.

Only in the wet season (March till June), they cannot always harvest due to muddy roads.

Because of this constant harvesting, the price of sugar does not fluctuate much throughout the year, only because of changes in the amount of sugar imported.

Although they have enough water to cultivate sugar, rainwater alone is not enough.

As main sources of water, TPC uses irrigation from two rivers on the west side of the property and the Milaweni Spring in the east. From this spring, they use an astonishing 1,700 litres of water per second, but pay only 10,000,000 TSH (=4,555 USD) per year. Due to limitations to the water supply from the springs, TPC has conflicts with neighbouring farmers (see the section about conflicts in this paper).

Also on the west side of the estate, water problems occur in the dry season. Over the last 15 years, the amount of rain was most of the times below the yearly average.

Because farmers upriver have the first possibility to use the water, TPC has to do what is left downstream. This means that in the dry season, they often have to cut back their irrigation to once in 20 days from once in 10. An increase in irrigation in the dry season would most likely increase the harvest throughout the year, since TPC harvests sugar more than eight months per year. However, employers of TPC could not give an indication of how much the harvest would increase.

On flood prevention, they were able to give an estimation of their costs. To prevent the rivers from flooding the TPC lands in the wet season, TPC spends 50,000,000 TSH (=22,779 USD) on dykes.

The impoverished majority of Tanzanian people consume maize while the smaller middle and upper class consume more wheat and rice [Maghimbi, 2007]. These three crops do not compete for land. Recently Tanzania has become a net maize importer and 8

is also importing rice due to droughts. The volume of maize and rice actually produced in Tanzania is difficult to measure because the farmers themselves consume a lot of these crops. It is however clear that rice is the more valuable crop while maize has a higher production per acre [Maghimbi, 2007].

2.2.2

Grassland

One of the main results of restoring dehydrated grasslands, as Justdiggit does, is the increase of vegetation [Borst et al., 2015]. Increased water availability can lead to the above-mentioned effect on soil moisture to grassland restoration [Xu et al., 2010]. Grasslands are areas where grasses dominate and less than 10% of the area is filled with trees or bushes. In global terms 26% of the total land area and 80% of agricultural land comprise grasslands [Steinfeld et al., 2006]; [Wright et al., 2006]. Furthermore 68% of grasslands are located in developing countries. In the Kilimanjaro area, 33% of the total land consists of grassland, according to the National Environmental Management Council, 2013.

Grasslands can have a strong impact on their environment. This is due to the role grasslands have on food production, livelihoods and ecosystem services [FAO, 2009]. In developing countries in particular, grasslands also have an important cultural as well as social role [Boval and Dixon, 2012]. Boval and Dixon give an example that traditionally, in most of these lands livestock is still a status symbol and that livestock is kept on grasslands.

Nabradi et al. [2007] has identified the following as the most important forms of grassland utilization: • Animal nutrition • Health care and medicinal plants • Soil protection • Biodiversity preservation and environmental protection • Pleasant human environment • Utilization for sports • Renewable energy supply • Business profitability Given the importance of agricultural productivity, the choice of grassland products is limited to those products that are most directly related to that. Grasslands are the main source of animal nutrition. Therefore to graze livestock is the most important economic use of grasslands [Suttie et al., 2005]. Besides natural pastures, grasslands are used for the production of forage for livestock. Utilizing grasslands for animal nutrition “makes vegetation suitable for animal consumption” as animals transform vegetation into tertiary products for human use [Nabradi et al., 2007]. The production of animal nutrition, also referred to as forage, can further be split into the production of forage for sale, and the production of forage for own use. Furthermore, crop residue is another important form of animal nutrition, especially for the Kilimanjaro Region. Maize stover and bean haulms are the most commonly used crop residues for animal nutrition purposes. Crop residues must also be transported to the highland farms from the lowlands, and the consumption 9

of such forage is therefore limited by the availability of such transportation [Kessy and Urio, 2006].

The production of animal forage involves a number of different parties. First and foremost, the farmers that harvest grass and produce forage either for sale or for their own use. Local farmers in the highlands of the Kilimanjaro region have extremely restricted access to natural pastures that can be utilized for grazing livestock. Animals, which are held in the highlands, have to be stall-fed consequently. To this end, grass is cut from natural grasslands in the lowlands, and subsequently transported to the mountain farms.

“Farmers may travel to the lowland areas to cut and harvest the grass themselves, or they may purchase by the head-loads from hawkers” [Kessy and Urio, 2006]. The harvesting of grasses for animal nutrition purposes has in fact become so essential that farmers have started giving up the production of coffee to be able to produce more forage. There are two farms in the region which are involved in the sale of pasture grasses, however the “production of those farms is far outstripped by demand” [Kessy and Urio, 2006].

The Justdiggit project can benefit these farmers by being able to harvest a greater quantity of grass on a given surface means that they are able to benefit economically from increased sales. Furthermore, the natural retention of moisture in the soil could also result in a reduction in maintenance costs related to irrigation. In the long run however, these producers might see their prices drop as the supply of animal feedings continues to increase. Secondly, the national Tanzanian government as land-owning entity would also be positively affected by the execution of the Justdiggit project. As the grasslands increase in value, the land owning entities as holders of the assets are relatively better off than before. Finally, it is important to consider those individuals that purchase forage for their own livestock. If the production of forage increases, the availability of forage on the market will too, and imbalances between supply and demand will be less considerable. In the long run, as the supply of forage increases the price is expected to drop which will also leave those individuals better off.

2.2.3

Floods

The third second-degree effect that is discussed is the reduction of floods. As discussed above, the retention of water leads to better infiltration of water into the ground. This will cause peak charges to slowing down erosion, preventing flash floods and downstream flooding [Taylor, 2007]. In addition to this, floods will be reduced because of more equal distribution of rainfall.

Floods are a major issue in the rural areas in the Kilimanjaro region. It is estimated that about 38% of the past natural disasters in Tanzania involved floods and the costs can exceed 1% of the GDP per year (Master, 2015).

Floods have a considerable direct influence on society as whole and are essential to be included in this research. Floods influence all people in the area; therefore everyone in society is considered to be stakeholder. In order to create a better perspective on the exact effects of a flood, this paper differentiates certain sectors that cope with the consequences of a flood. The effects on these sectors are presented as third degree effects, they only occur as a consequence of the reduction of floods, after which specific stakeholders will be discussed.

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Figure 4: Step 1: execution of Justdiggit project

2.3

Third Degree Effects

The determined second-degree effects will influence multiple third degree effects. A scientific paper by Hertel et al. (2010) identified a negative relationship between crop yield and poverty rates around the world. Higher crop yield will lead to a higher income. The described wealth impact on society will lead to better education, as discussed below. A decrease in floods will lead to less damage to crops, infrastructure and buildings and less disease caused by floods.

Please note that there are more effects caused by a change in crop yield, grasslands and floods than discussed in this research paper. Increased crop yield has a large variety of effects. As the figure above shows grasslands also have their influence on floods. As discussed earlier, grasses can protect soil from erosion, but this finding is not discussed in this paper because of the difficulties in quantifying this effect. A better-fed livestock caused by the increase in grasslands has several indirect effects as well [FAO, 2009].

Among the more relevant of them are an increase in the production of scarce high-quality foods like meat and milk, direct and indirect employment increases, household security increases since people can deal with seasonal insecurities better and more transport of both goods and people. These effects are beneficial for both the farming industries as the underlying processing industries, but they are considered to be too indirect to fall within the scope of this paper. Another indirect effect of the increase in grassland is the possibility of overgrazing. This disadvantageous effect occurs when too many livestock keepers are attracted to the one area with increased grasslands. This effect is not discussed any further because only 2,5% of the population in the Kilimanjaro Region works as a livestock keeper (Kilimanjaro Regional Profile, 2012).

Concerning floods, there are multiple sectors that are not selected for this research.

Businesses are left out of account as the Tanzanian economy is not as regulated and controlled as the Western markets. It is not feasible and credible to conduct research on this subcategory given the time available. As most trade is done with bargaining, without accounting and without any registration, the traceability of the flood damage is too low.

Temporary accommodation is another sector that is not discussed. The effects of floods on this sector are considered to be too indirect, as this regards the increase in demand of temporary accommodation when floods destroy the original housing. This can be seen 11

as a side effect and therefore goes beyond scope. Local government and emergency costs are not examined either. This effect is determined to be too small, as we found out that floods only have destructive influence in small villages and settlements. Local governance buildings are located in the somewhat more developed cities and therefore experience no flood damage. The influence on expenditures on electricity and gas is considered to be relatively small. In 2011/2012 only 18% of all households in Tanzania had electricity (Tanzania in figure 2014, 2015). This is logical because of wood; fuel and charcoal are the main sources for energy (Environment Statistics 2014, 2015). It is assumed that damage to electricity and gas is less relevant than the other effects. The same holds for telecommunication. The costs of a flood linked to telecommunications are less than 1% of the total damage (Chatter et al, 2007). Another aspect that falls out of scope is the effect on waste, wastewater and water quality due to the technical nature of this subject.

It is not feasible to gather data on this matter considering the amount of time reserved for this research.

2.3.1

Education

In the following part the underlying argumentation for the indirect third-degree effect education is given. An increased crop yield will lead to lower poverty (Hertel, et al. 2010).

A decrease in poverty will lead to an increase in demand for education. A paper by Glewwe et al. [2001] investigated the wealth effect on education, by using data from an exponential household income growth in Vietnam, in the period 1993-1998. They found a significant positive relationship between changes in wealth and changes in demand for education.

Other scientific researches highlight the same effect from another perspective by showing that poverty constraints investment in human capital [Mehrotra and Delamonica, 1998].

A research by Sifuna [2007] investigated the factors to increase quality of education, in a case study on Tanzania. He found that quality of education mainly depends on three factors: availability and quality of learning materials, appropriate infrastructure and competent teachers [Sifuna, 2007]. Teachers’ motivation plays an important role in providing quality education [Davidson, 2007]. The current lack of motivation mainly comes from poor living and working conditions, such as low salaries and poor housing [Davidson, 2007]. By improving these conditions, higher quality of education can be reached. The income growth caused by the Justdiggit project, will lead to the availability to fund learning materials and competent teachers. The effects of the Justdiggit project on infrastructure, as discussed below, can also have a positive effect on the quality of education.

The educational system in Tanzania is based around the 2-7-4-2-3+ system. This system represents: two years of pre-primary school, seven years of primary school, four years of ordinary secondary school, two years of advanced secondary school and at least three years of higher education (Nuffic, 2015). Up to the age of fifteen, education is free of charge in Tanzania. However due to high costs for school materials, examination fees and uniforms many poor families are not able to provide ‘free’ education for their children. The Desk and Chair Foundation (TDCF) estimates that 66% of the youth of Tanzania is enrolled in primary education (67% male, 66% female), however only 6% (6% male, 5% female) is enrolled in secondary education. 80% of the children that attend primary school complete their education and only 20% (of the 80%) continue secondary education. Several reasons not to attend primary school are: poverty, schools are too far and inefficient teachers. Due to the introduction of education fees in secondary education, the main reason not to attend secondary school is funding problems: poverty (The Desk 12

and Chair Foundation, 2010).

Several stakeholders play a part in the specific subject of education. Each party has a different interest in the different effects. Below, the stakeholders are matched on their interest in the different effects.

The largest stakeholder in this case is the Tanzanian government, more specifically the United Republic of Tanzania ministry of Education and Vocational Training. Their main policy regarding education is the compulsory education of children 7 to 15 years old. This means that children, in the Tanzanian school system, have to finish both pre-primary and primary school. However, as mentioned before, only 67% of the youth of Tanzania is enrolled in primary education, something that very much contradicts their policy. Due to these facts, the United Republic of Tanzania ministry of Education and Vocational Training will have very high interest in the Justdiggit project.

An increase in school attendance also affects the primary school teachers. UNESCO Institute for Statistics found a teacher-pupil ratio of 1:43.44 in 2013. This statistic concerns Tanzania as a whole. Therefore it does not account for disparities between urban and rural areas and it is not unlikely that the ratio is even higher in the rural areas of the Pangani Basin. It is hard for a teacher to teach such a large class. If the number of students increases even further, teachers may lose some of their motivation to teach. This may lead to a decrease in the quality of education. It remains to be seen whether this decrease is offset by a possible increase in the quality of education, which is stated below.

The second stakeholder in this case is the local communities and their youth. This stakeholder has an ambiguous interest in education. Local communities highly encourage education since they see education as the only way out of poverty. However, this possible increase in education enrolment could also induce a ‘local brain drain’. Research by Wang et al. [2013] have concluded that increase in education investments will induce brain drain, which in turn decreases economic growth in places where the initial rate of human capital is relatively low [Wang et al., 2013]. Concluding the ambiguous effect of education on local communities, where increased investment in human capital will lead to brain drain to more developed places and decreases economic growth and local income in local communities.

Primary school teachers will also be affected by this effect. It is important to note that the teachers generally do not come from the communities they teach, but are assigned by the ministry of Education. A lot of teachers feel they make sacrifices to their own lifestyle by coming to teach pupils in rural areas [Barrett, 2005]. This belief is correct in the sense that teachers experience poorer living and working conditions, such as low salaries and poor housing, than in urban areas [Davidson, 2007]. Because of this, there is a shortage of (competent) teachers in rural areas. If however, the students will be in possession of basic study materials, it may be easier to teach them. This might improve the motivation of the teachers as well as make it feel like less of a sacrifice to teach in rural areas. This will be even more so if local communities invest part of their extra funds in better housing and salaries for teachers, attracting them to the area.

2.3.2

Infrastructure

Infrastructure is an important driver of the national economy. Without proper infrastructure, no transportation of both goods and persons is possible. The functionality of infrastructure is at risk when floods damage the asset. This paper therefore examines the damage to roads and railways. These two types of infrastructure are chosen since they are the only infrastructural assets available in the Kilimanjaro Region that are able to

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transport people and goods. Other types of infrastructure are not considered due to the limitation of time for this paper.

When a flood hits, this has a severe impact on the infrastructure of a region. This was confirmed in 2015 by the prime minister of Tanzania who stated that 4.3 million USD (9.5 billion TSH) would be needed to restore damage occurred to 79 different roads and bridges which were hit by floods in Dar es Salaam alone [Majaliwa, 2015]. The stakeholders affected by the floods are thus the local people who wish to travel in the area and the local government that has to finance the reconstruction of the infrastructure.

Both locals and government are aware of the problem. The government holds the most influence on this issue since it is responsible for the construction and maintenance of the (regional) infrastructural network. The local people can start small projects in order to improve the quality, but this is only possible with small-scale projects.

2.3.3

Buildings

Shelter, education and healthcare are determined to be one of the most essential points in the pyramid of Maslow [Maslow, 1943]. In the small villages and settlements where floods are most frequent, the quality of buildings is low, which leads to a higher vulnerability and with that more damage. Therefore, there is an influence of floods on these essential parts of the society as a whole and on individuals. Floods do not only lead to costs because of damaged property.

Housing - The effect of floods on houses is thoroughly researched. [Davies, 2014], finds that a flood of 21 January 2014 in the rural area between the regions Manyara, Morogoro and Dodoma left around 10000 people homeless and damaged around 2000 houses, which had to be repaired. Several papers find an indicator of the direct reparation costs of houses after such a flood. First of all, a study in South Africa, which shows a total direct repairing cost of 508$ per house [Halsnæs and Trærup, 2009]. A second study is conducted in Vietnam about a flood in 2007 in the Mekong Delta. This study concludes to 675$ reparation costs per house. A third study, done in Dhaka, Bangladesh states that repairing a house costs around 68$ [Mohit and Akhter, 2000]. This shows the extent to which a flood can disrupt the houses of local residents, and hence makes this a relevant topic to be researched in this paper. Apart from the direct costs of repairing damaged houses, there are also indirect costs, such as the costs of leaving people homeless for a certain period of time. Whereas this is an interesting and important topic to research, it does not fall within the scope of this research due to time limitations. The individuals most affected by the damage to houses are house owners. Whereas house owners could move to an area with less floods, due to monetary constrains, the tribal culture, and the inheritance of family lands, they are likely to be unable or bit willing to move.

Hospitals - The disruption of health facilities due to floods has not been thoroughly researched. Moreover, research that has been conducted on the destruction of infrastructure and schools, however, shows that there is a high probability that health centres are influenced as well. According to the ’Environmental profile of Moshi municipality (2008)’ most health centres are privately owned and located in the bigger cities. Therefore, the peri-urban en rural areas are somewhat under-served. However, these are the villages and settlements that experience the most damage of floods. When a flood destroys a health centre, it consequently affects a lot of parties. The villages themselves are unable to get 14

medical attention when needed and the employees are unable to properly execute their medical tasks. Additionally, it results in over-demand at the other hospitals, so these are stakeholders as well. Insurance also has to be added to the list of stakeholders, as it may cause issues when other medical centres are being visited.

Schools - The destructive effect of floods on school buildings is retrieved from different reports and papers. An example of the effect floods can have on school buildings is the 2006 flood in Kenya. 30 schools, 28 classrooms and 11 toilets were damaged. Another example is a flood in South Africa in 2000, about which the South African Ministry of Education stated that 1,000 schools were damaged in both the Mpumalanga province and Northern provinces (Southern Africa: Floods report 28 Mar 2000). This illustrates the impact of floods on school buildings. Besides that, it addresses another problem; lost school days by pupils. Lost school days are an important topic because of the positive effect from education on the society [Sianesi and Reenen, 2003]. Because of the many variables this problem involves for this research it is beyond scope. Naturally, the involved parties for schools are the children when the school needs to be closed because of the damage, the teachers who are not able to work, the community and the government who need to pay when the school is damaged.

2.3.4

Health

Floods cause damage to properties, but also intangibles are important, such as health.

Several diseases erupt and are quickly spread because of floods [IRI, 2016]. In order to restore public health, costs are made by national health systems that respond to outbreaks of diseases. Moreover, there are lost workdays caused by the outbreaks of diseases that result in indirect costs and ultimately in welfare loss. This effect is not taken into account since it depends on too many uncertainties.

When a flood occurs, there is a high risk of outbreaks of malaria, cholera and diarrhoeal diseases [IRI, 2016]. In 2008, it affected 32.2 million people in Africa making it a leading cost of the African disease burden [WHO, 2016]. The inability of the underfunded national health systems in Africa to cope with the increase in medical expenses have led to non-profit organisations such as Medecins sans Frontiers and USAID to set up special treatment centres for such diseases. Unfortunately, they have reported that especially the number of cholera cases is still increasing. Moreover, almost every flood results in fatalities. In Tanzania for example, 47, 71 and 15 people have died over the years 2014, 2015 and 2016 (Floodlist, 2016). Public health can be affected in both a direct and an indirect way. The direct influence of floods on public health considered is physical diseases.

Further, an indirect effect of floods on health is that people might be unable to go to work because of illness [Chatterton et al., 2010]. The stakeholders involved in public health are members of an affected household, dispensaries, health centres and hospitals that need to provide treatment for the affected people, businesses whose labourers cannot come to work due to illness and lastly NGOs and governments that not only help, but also have to finance parts of the treatment of these people. To summarize, every nut and bolt within a working society is affected by good or bad health. Moreover, socioeconomics is directly connected with health. Therefore, the relationship between health and socioeconomics is explained below. Finally, for a better understanding of how floods drive the health status of individuals, the link between water and health is discussed.

Good health enables people to be productive and to provide for their families. The

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fact that OECD countries spend on average 8% of total GDP on health is a testament of the importance of good health and the large role it plays in national economy. In most low and middle-income countries (LMIC) the public expenditure spent on health is far less compared to richer countries. Only the richer people can afford quality health services, leaving the poor to use care in public hospitals and rely on out-of-pocket payments (OOP). These unforeseen costs of health care services often lead to families selling assets or borrowing money from relative’s causing welfare loss and impacting their economic position. The United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals recognize the importance of protecting people from financial risks resulting from health issues as it specifically raises attention to good health and accessible healthcare access for all people. Combined with the fact the poor have less access to improved water sources leaving them more susceptible to waterborne disease causes a double burden for the poor and their health. Essentially, the poor are left behind with worse health states and less access to affordable health services impairing them to be productive and provide for their families. To conclude, good health is important for a proper running economy, and in the case of the Kilimanjaro area and the Justdiggit project, water stress is the main reason why people become ill and have health care costs. The origins of this water stress are explained below.

The determinants that affect people’s health in relation to water are mainly the quality and the amount of water used. The quality of the water highly depends on the source.

In urban areas in Tanzania, about 50% of people have access to piped water that is safe to drink. In rural Tanzania, people are dependent on boreholes and surface water.

Classified as non-improved sources of water they are highly susceptible to contamination with cholera and e-coli bacteria, causing outbreaks of disease.

Floods do not only have a high impact on the damage to tangibles, but also intangibles are important, including health. Several diseases erupt and quickly spread because of floods [IRI, 2016]. Costs occur due to physical diseases that need to be cured and due to production loss (work days lost) due to illness.

Figure 5: Step 1: execution of Justdiggit project

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2.4

Fourth Degree Effects

The determined third degree effects have an influence on a variety of factors. Although these effects are presented as fourth degree effects, they are important to highlight because of their scale and the impact they have on society. An increase in the demand and quality of education will lead to economic growth directly [Hanushek and W¨oßmann, 2007]. These changes in education in addition to changes in crop yield can also have their influence on current social relations. The effects on social relations are hard to quantify, but will be outlined in a more theoretical manner.

As the graph above shows, the change in economic growth leads to higher demand for education in its turn [Ranis et al., 2000] [Lewis, 2012]. This effect is important to mention because of the positive cycle it illustrates, but is not discussed any further because it is considered to be too indirect to fall within the scope of the paper.

2.4.1

Economic Growth

To begin with: economic growth, since many researches find a positive relationship between human capital and economic growth [Gylfason, 2002] [Galor and Tsiddon, 1997].

Many of these researches base their conclusion on the learning curve theory, where higherskilled people will produce more. This increase in production will infer economic growth in the long-term. Hanushek and W¨oßmann [2007] find strong evidence that higher quality education leads to improved cognitive skills of the population and with that positively correlated with individual earnings, distribution of income and economic growth. Finally they suggest, that to close the economic gap between first- and third-world countries, major structural changes in schooling institutions have to be made, something that the Justdiggit project could indirectly contribute to. Another research by Barro (2013) analyses panel data of 100 countries in the period 1960 to 1995. The data reveals that growth rate of GDP per capita is positively correlated with the starting level of average years of school attainment. Finally a paper by [Benhabib and Spiegel, 1994] found that improved level of education positively affected growth in Chinese Taipei and thus concluded a positive causal relationship between education and GDP. In short, education quality and school attainment are both positively correlated to economic growth.

2.4.2

Social Relations

The subject ‘social relations’ is divided in three catergories: women empowerment, relationships and migration. Women empowerment was chosen because women form a considerable part of the workforce working on the land in Kilimanjaro Region, which is the area in which the Justdiggit project will take place. Therefore it is important to know how the project could be used to empower women. The reaction of women on the project therefore directly influences the success of the Justdiggit project. Relationships will focus on how different people in a community and different communities communicate and how this might change after the project is implemented. Knowing the structure and the way people interact with each other in the villages is important to know when approaching people and implementing the project in the area. Furthermore, the research shows whether people have a positive attitude towards social change. A closer look will be taken on conflicts within and between different communities. An analysis is made of the conflicts and how this conflicts could be caused or prevented by the Justdiggit project.

Therefore it is important to know how the relationships currently are and what might hap17

pen afterwards. Lastly migration was chosen, because after the project is implemented it might cause people from other communities to migrate to the region where the project is implemented or retain people in the area who were previously thinking about moving to the urban areas. It is therefore important to know if migration could be caused and or prevented by the Justdiggit project.

Women empowerment - In the past thirty years Tanzania adopted multiple laws, programs, strategies and policies to attain gender equality. For example, Tanzania decided to become the signatory of the Convention of All Forms of Discrimination against Women in August 1985 and ratified it in 1986. In 2000 they adopted a Woman and gender development Policy (WGDP), which ensured gender mainstreaming in al government programs and policies (CEDAW, 1996). In 2014 the constitution assembly proposed a constitution which allowed women to own land (allAfrica, 2014). By just looking at the situation on paper, one could say that Tanzania has the right circumstances for gender equality. The laws are there and the programs are written. The actual situation, however, shows something else. Gender inequality is still an issue in the main areas of Tanzania.

Women make up to more than 50% of the workforce on the land in Tanzania (Duncan and Haule, 2014). It is therefore important to do research on women empowerment for the Justdiggit project, since women make up a more than half of the workforce working on the fields the Justdiggit project could improve. The research on woman empowerment will look into how women and the increasing importance of women empowerment could be used when the Justdiggit project is introduced.

Ernest (2011) found in his research that currently the main stakeholders of the Justdiggit project with respect to gains in terms of women empowerment include the local head of the households, or simply said the men, NGO’s, government instruments and women.

Local heads of the households (men) are directly influenced by women’s empowerment.

Men make currently most decisions. By allowing women to make decisions ass well, men would have to give up a part of their power (Ernest, 2011). Therefore, men are the first step in allowing women to undertake more actions by themselves and create gender equality. However, most men and especially clan leaders discriminate using the ‘customs’ and ‘tradition’ excuse to justify their authority and are not willing to change this (Duncan and Haule, 2014). The effect of women’s empowerment will result in a negative effect for most men, since it would mean they would have to give up a part of their power to women.

Even though woman are naturally seen as a main stakeholder this has to be evaluated with caution. Empowerment has a positive effect on most women, but this is not always the case since not all women want to be empowered (Ernest, 2011). A large percentage of women is still content with their current situation. Hence, these women could form a potential threat against projects trying to improve the situation for women in such countries. Justdiggit could introduce working possibilities especially designed for women in order to help the current development in gender equality, but it has to be analysed if enough women are willing to do this.

NGO’s have the role to influence the people and pave the way to change [Kumaran, 2014]. Most people in the villages do not know about the possibilities and the rights they have (Ernest, 2011). The NGO’s could help inform both the woman and men on how the situation could be improved. Currently, however, most NGO’s are located in the bigger cities. This means that most people in smaller villages do not know about the existence of these NGO’s and do not have the opportunity to ask for help. Besides 18

this, many NGO’s are working with women who are engaged in conflicts and are in this way directly involved. These NGO’s could help Justdiggit with involving women in their projects. In this way both organisations, the NGO and Justdiggit, will help each other.

The NGO could help the women and Justdiggit could help the NGO by creating working opportunities for women.

Government instruments are the only institutions that are able to force new regulations to be in place through laws. However, as shown before a lot of laws on this matter are already in place, but still they are not working in practice. Therefore it is crucial for the government to know how to effectively implement new laws (Duncan and Haule, 2014).

Involvement of governments will be the first step towards more women empowerment, but on its own it is not enough.

Relationships - When the land and ecosystem of a specific region are being improved the population is affected. Because of the increased soil moisture created by the Justdiggit project there is a higher crop yield, which leads to a higher purchasing power.

This higher purchasing power could have an effect on the relations within and between communities. Tanzania has a highly diversified population consisting of around 126 tribes (Lupogo, 2001). The research on relationships will focus on the question whether increased soil moisture has an indirect effect on the relationships within and between communities in that region. Within the region there are several tribes and or villages. It is possible that the re-greening of the land will be the cause of tensions between communities about who has the right to farm or graze the land and or about water supply. If it would create tensions and conflicts this can be really harmful in the form of political, social and economic damage. In for example Yemen this is a big problem. Tribal conflict is the cause of political, social and economic damage that exceeds the tribal borders [Mojalli, 2009]. In Tanzania however, the situation has been very peaceful since the independency in 1964.

Tribes respect each other’s cultures and are usually not much engaged in conflicts (Lupogo, 2001). This suggests that it is not directly expected that improved ecosystems will cause conflicts between different communities. Only cattle’s rustling is something that happens between different communities (Lupogo, 2001). This could form a problem when the Justdiggit project enables communities to have cattle on their land again. In this case the re-greening of the land could cause a negative value and harm the social relations between communities. However, it is also possible that the communities will cooperate in the use of the re-greened land so that both profit from it. In that case the re-greening has a positive value for the social relations between communities.

The tribes/communities, the tribal chief and the people from the community all influence the current relationships within that community that are currently often still structured by kinship [Ronfeldt, 2006]. They are the most important stakeholders of this subject of analysis. The Justdiggit project re-greens the land, which means people can work on this land [ter Maat et al., 2016]. Enable more people to work on the land brings questions about who can farm the land, how welfare is divided within the community and who has the right to which amount of the available water. These questions could affect the relations within the community, possibly leading to conflicts. This could especially be a problem since loyalty can shift quickly within tribes, in general [Ronfeldt, 2006].

On the other hand communities have lived very peaceful in the past decades in Tanzania that makes such behaviour less likely (Lupogo, 2001). So in the current situation the Justdiggit project could have both a positive and a negative effect on these relationships.

NGO’s play a role in choosing the regions and communities with whom they work.

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This choice determines which communities are going to benefit from the project [University, 2016]. If for example one community benefits from the work of an NGO but their neighbouring community does not this could affect the relationship between those communities. NGO’s have a lot of influence on their choice for the picking of specific communities, villages or regions.

Governments play a minor role in this analysis. They have a role in the management and improvement of tribal conflicts. For the solving and preventing of conflicts there is also a role for the government (NDI, 2014).

The environment is a more silent stakeholder. It is however very much affected by the way in which tribal members and different communities handle the land. When they work together well and treat the land well the environment will be positively affected. In case of conflict however, the environment could become a subordinate concern of the different communities and it could be damaged by the conflict [Mojalli, 2009].

Furthermore overgrazing possibly influences relationships. This will be discussed further in the following section. The transformation of collective into private property has long historical roots. Colonial policy is seen as the most important factor (Toulmin et al., 2012). In Eastern and Southern Africa, controls on livestock movement and marketing were often imposed to protect the interests of settled farmers, while much pastoral land was lost to wildlife reserves and game parks as a result of a strong conservationist lobby (Toulmin et al., 2012). As mentioned in Hardin’s artical “Tragedy of the Commons” of 1968, holding land in common gives individual herders no incentive to limit the number of animals they graze on that land. Without limits, conditions are set for land degradation and desertification. One can say Hardin’s prediction seemed true when severe drought hit parts of dry land Africa in the 1970s and 1980s.

Water and more grassland provided by the Justdiggit project can been seen as a common good. Common pool resources (CPRs) are resources available for all people living in a specific area (C´ardenas et al., 2009). Watershed contexts are characterized by a variety of actors, e.g. livestock keepers, municipal land use planners, farmers, mining companies, and urban water suppliers, who make decisions or take specific actions related to water or other landscape resource such as farm land, forests, or pastures. These actors are heterogeneous in terms of water access, economic activities and power to influence institutional arrangements for water management (C´ardenas et al., 2009).

Previous research in collective water management show that robust collective management does likely depend on the level of existing community organisation and social capital, that is “the strength of norms and social relations that enable people to work together to achieve their goals’ (Knox et al., 2001). However these norms and relations are likely to be weak, at higher scales, and need to be replaced by formal institutions. In heterogeneous groups it will be the privileged group that would provide the public good inducing the non-privileged to free ride on the provision of the former (Olson, 1965). A study by Ostrom (2006) shows that “even in an environment for extreme heterogeneity in subject endowments, communication was a powerful mechanism for promoting coordination, resulting in rents very close to those observed in the homogeneous set”.

More and better grassland brings more livestock keepers to the area. By attracting more livestock keepers who will graze on the grasslands there will be the possibility of overgrazing. As mentioned above, overgrazing is a condition for desertification and will therefore harm the Justdiggit project. By setting up so called ‘grazing committees’ their will be rules and communication between different actors who want to use the land.

The scope of this paper lies within the Kilimanjaro Region, this region has 2,5% of the 20

population working as livestock keepers (Kilimanjaro Regional Profile, 2012). 2.5% can be seen as a insignificant amount to be a factor of overgrazing. When looking at the total Pangani River Basin (PRB), then an increasing number of livestock can been seen as a problem (Welling et. al., 2011). The main problem in the PRB is the competition for water resources, as the number of claims over water increase, so too does the number of conflicts. Water and Nature Initiative (WANI) has conducted a case study about the water management in the PRB. In short they bring together stakeholders and create a platform for discussion and collaboration towards a common goal. Furthermore they provide steps for the government of Tanzania to continue working towards a future where water resources are used sustainably, maintaining both ecosystems health and people’s livelihood security (Welling et. al., 2011).

To conclude, within the Kilimanjaro Region, due to the lack of livestock grazing, setting up a grazing committee will not be necessary. When looking at the total Pangani River Basin a grazing committee could be an outcome for overgrazing grassland that could be provided by the Justdiggit project.

Migration - Lastly, improved welfare, and or overall living conditions can make an area more attractive for people to migrate to. If this really does lead to migration it could bring more talented or educated people to the region. This part of the research aims to answer the question if the re-greening of the region will attract people to the region and bring welfare in the form of knowledge and or economic value. According to Sjaastad, human migration is seen as a personal investment that includes both benefits and costs.

Costs are for example the travel costs, but also the opportunity cost for the lost income in the time of traveling and finding a new job. Benefits include a higher income, but might be lowered by the higher living expenses of that city. According to his theory people will migrate when the marginal benefits are higher than the costs [Borjas et al., 1992].

In order to attract new people, or attain the people who are already there, the benefits minus the costs of that place should be higher than that of the other place.

Currently the main stakeholders include local and national government, local communities and local employers. Both local and national government are involved with migration. Both influence the opportunity costs of migration by regulating the minimum and maximum wages, minimum and maximum rents and regulations on travelling within and outside the country [Borjas et al., 1992] [PB, 2010]. Besides that migration might also increase the welfare of the whole country or community that has a direct effect on the governments.

Local communities are positively affected by migration to villages and negatively affected by migration away from villages. When a group of people enter a village, welfare usually increases, which has a positive effect on the whole community. Moreover, migration creates more work opportunities, and when more people are attracted this influences the smaller shops and recreation businesses in a positive manner. On the flipside however, migration to a village might harm the local communities when prices increase due to the increased popularity (Massey, 1990).

Households may benefit from migration by household members when they are able to earn more. This wealth increase is mostly transferred back to the household remaining in the village that can benefit from this (Massey, 1990).

Local employers are directly involved by migration. When people start to leave this means that the workforce will be lowered and it would be harder to attract new workers.

However, when more people are getting back to the village, the situation will be reversed.

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Next to that employers directly influence the flow of migration through the wages. Higher wages will attract more people and cause more people to migrate to the village [Borjas et al., 1992].

The Justdiggit project influences all stakeholders through attracting new people when new working opportunities are created. When the living conditions improve, more people will be attracted to the place and therefore the Justdiggit project will have a positive effect on migration and hence on the wealth of the village.

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3

Methodology

In this part of the paper, the methods used to gain insights into the effects of the Justdiggit project are presented. In the first part of the methodology section a general method concerning desk research and field research are presented. After this, the methodology used to examine the effects on the different stakeholders specifically will be discussed.

3.1 3.1.1

General Methodology Theoretical Research

The valuation of the costs that will be prevented by the Justdiggit project will be valued according to the following valuation methods. Note that multiple methods could be used to determine the value of the specific effect.

The Direct Comparison Method - this method is used to value assets by comparing like with like. This method has a high reliability, but only if the value of the comparable is available. Common units to compare are for instance: i Agricultural land ii Public service facilities iii Houses iv Businesses Since the properties will be compared with similar yet not perfect substitutes adjustments have to be made to estimate the properties’ true value. Think of ageing or location differences. When a comparable is found and the adjustments have been made the asset to be valued can be valued directly with the amount of the comparable (Tasaf III, 2011).

The Replacement Cost Approach - This method is used if the value of the comparable is not immediately available. This approach is based on the assumption that the value is equivalent to the costs of replacing the asset with an equivalent one plus a reasonable and fair profit margin. The costs of replacing the asset can be determined by various manners, such as estimated unit costs (km, m2 or bed spaces) and estimates of materials and labour costs. The reasonable and fair profit price can be considered as a compensation for extra costs made during disruption and the reconstruction period. This method is commonly used for public properties like schools, hospitals and infrastructure (Tasaf III, 2011).

The Willingness To Pay (WTP) or Contingent Value Method - This method is often used when public goods do not have a market. are often used methods to attribute value to a good. To be able to use this method it is necessary that individuals have preferences about the public good to be valued that are comprehensive, stable and coherent. To account for the value by using this method a statistical relevant sample of users has to be taken into account. A common used percentage is the 95%. [Bateman et al., 2011].

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3.1.2

Field Research

During the field research several methods will be used to collect data and test the findings of the desk research. The first method is surveying of stakeholders in the villages around Moshi in the Kilimanjaro region. The villages were selected based on different characteristics, which will be explained in the methodology section of each effect. The surveys are used to collect data on individual inhabitants.

Secondly, interviews with several local government officials and other local executives will be conducted. These interviews are used to collect overall data of the Kilimanjaro region. This consists of personal statements or reports about the entire region. and will be further introduced in the methodology section of each effect.

Thirdly, focus groups are held, to discuss several effects. These will be further described in the methodology section of each effect. The focus groups are useful to test some assumptions and better understand the social relations in the region.

In the following part of the methodology section, the methods used for the different effects and each specific stakeholder will be outlined.

3.2 3.2.1

Crop Yield Theoretical Research

The economic effect of an increase in crop yield caused by more soil moisture, less erosion, and a decrease in floods can be studied by examining an area in Tanzania where crops are already being grown. To be able to make valuations about crop yield productivity, data concerning crop yields are required.

The data that is used in the result section come from the following sources, which provide data concerning the market prices for different goods that are cultivated in the area of the Justdiggit project: • The World Bank: Source that provides a lot of up-to-date data for all the countries around the world. This data is reliable and easy-to-compare with other countries. • Trading Economics: This website provides data for 175 countries around the world.

These data vary from a country’s stock market to Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Corruption Index. For Tanzania, most of these data go up to April 2016.

First of all, the crop yield per hectare is determined for different types of crops during both the long and short rain season. Furthermore, those two are combined using the data sources stated above. By combining the crop yield with the market prices a return in kg per hectare can be calculated. Afterwards the relation between a rise in crop yield and the inflation will be made.

To find what effect floods have on crop yield the total loss of crops is calculated, based on the numbers found (TU delft paper, 2016). These numbers are extrapolated to the entire Kilimanjaro region to give an indication of the total crop loss. Afterwards the 1%, 5% 10% reduction of floods scenarios due to Justdiggit are calculated.

3.2.2

Field Research

In order to answer the research question and to make proper valuations of the value of increased crop yield the following methods are used on-site in de Kilimanjaro region.

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First of all, data about crop productivity is gathered by conducting surveys and interviews with different types of farmers in various areas. These surveys can be found in de appendix section x. These areas are chosen in a way that all levels of water availability are covered. The different types of farmers are selected in such a manner that all kind of farmers are covered. This is done by interviewing and surveying farmers and other regional stakeholders ranging from owners of a small farm with only a few hectares to big companies with thousands of hectares. Another distinction is made between different kinds of crops, which are produced.

By doing so it is possible to distinguish the crop productivity between areas where enough water is available (Highlands) and areas where it is not (Lowlands). With the collected data it is possible to draw conclusions on the way water availability affects crop yields.

Furthermore, surveys are conducted in local farming villages, which inquire the villagers about the effect of floods on crop yields. Since the effect of the Justdiggit project is still uncertain, three different scenarios are used: we provide an exact monetary value for a 1%, 5% and 10% decrease in floods. To valuate this we obtain the value of the crops via surveys, this value will then be multiplied with the damage occurred by a flood. Lastly the value of the damage will be quantified times the scenarios, hereby the positive effects of reduction of floods is valued.

3.3 3.3.1

Grassland Theoretical Research

According to basic economic principles the value of grasslands can be derived from the value of grassland products combined. For this research animal nutrition is the grassland product of interest. The value of this product can be determined on a monetary scale based on the idea that the price of these products “is determined by the relation of demand (buyers) and supply (vendors) according to current market conditions” [Nabradi et al., 2007]. It is therefore implied that a product is worth as much as it is paid for. To this extent it must be pointed out that “the basis of price determination is the cost of production” [Nabradi et al., 2007]. This idea represents the willingness to pay method and can only be applied to forage sold and bought on a market. Forage for own use is not marketable and therefore the replacement value method has to be applied. This basically means forage for own use is valued by determining what profit could have been made when the forage had not been used for their own.

In order to find the willingness to pay and the replacement value data on the market for forage has to be collected. If data cannot be collected by desk research data will be collected through interviews and surveys with farmers. If data can be collected by desk research this will be validated by interviews and surveys also.

3.3.2

Field Research

The following methods are used on-site in the Kilimanjaro Region. Data about animal nutrition products is gathered by conducting surveys and interviews in various areas and with different types of farmers. These surveys can be found in the appendix section x These areas are chosen in a way that all levels of water availability and all kind of farmers are covered.

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3.4 3.4.1

Floods Theoretical Research

It is determined from a research conducted by the Technical University Delft that the benefits of the reduction in floods are to be prevention of crop loss, increased farmland utilisation, reducing flood damage assets and non-monetary benefits (Eitjes, Eslhof, Guijt, Loon, and Mureau, 2016). As this research is quite similar to this subcategory of our paper, we link the TU Delft division to ours and highlight the similarities and differences.

The first two parts are further utilised in our research as ‘Crop yield’, the third one is named ‘Buildings’, further divided into ‘Houses’, ‘Hospitals’ and ‘Schools’. Non-monetary benefits are included in the subparts of ‘Hospitals’ and ‘Schools’ and defined as lost school days and/or inability for students to go to school and lost hospital functioning days and/or inability for people to go to the hospital. These two factors will not be quantified due to the large amount of variables that influence the cost of a lost school day or inability to go to the hospital.

The source used by the TU Delft report, has provided the TU Delft report with the most exact data, consequently convenient to be used for this research as well.

3.4.2

Field Research

The field work information is gathered through surveys, local meetings and several interviews. Furthermore, the gathering of information in small villages and settlements has been smoothed over by our driver’s contact and translating skills to overcome the language barrier. As in Tanzania it is of great essence to have local connections that are willing to function as translator.

3.5 3.5.1

Education Theoretical Research

To begin the quantification, the value of students (and thus education/human capital) will be identified. The first step is to find a variable that accurately represents the increase/decrease of human capital in Tanzania. Here we will use the variable: government expenditure on education (as % of the GDP) and primary completion rate as instrumental variables for education. Unfortunately very few data on Tanzania is available and only three years can be extracted from the database. Secondly, we have to identify a variable that accurately represents economic growth in Tanzania, the variable that will be used is GDP growth. From the theoretical framework can be concluded that government expenditure on education has a causal relationship with GDP and thus these variables are justified.

Students - Currently 4,316,000 students in Tanzania are enrolled in primary education in Tanzania. This is 67% of the total potential students in Tanzania. Ideally, 6,441,791 (=100% of all children between 7 and 15 years old) students in Tanzania should be enrolled in primary school, something that is supposed to be mandatory by government regulation. In short, when making the assumption that 100% will be enrolled in primary education (due to the Justdiggit project and the government’s support due to their primary school attainment policy), we find an increased number of students which 6,441,791-4,316,00=2,125,791. This amount of ‘potential’ students will be used to identify 26

the ‘potential’ monetary worth of the project, by multiplying it to the economic value of a student.

3.6

Health

In this section the methods used to evaluate the impact of the Justdiggit project on health as a result of less floods in the Kilimanjaro area are presented. The first part discusses the methodology used to perform the desk research. The second part sets out the methods used during the field research. Results are obtained based on qualitative research.

3.6.1

Field Research

Diseases - To determine the effect of floods with respect to public health, the increase in patients is considered. As explained in the theoretical framework, diseases such as cholera and diarrhoea are quickly spread through floods. In Tanzania this mainly leads to costs that are related to medication of diseases and vaccinations (Clement, 2009).

However, since there is no data on the increase in expenses of medicines and vaccinations for inhabitants of affected villages, this paper does not consider monetary values on the health effects. A method is considered that measures the increase in patients before and after floods both in absolute and relative values. To collect data during the field research, topic lists and interview questions aimed at the local rural population, hospital personal and local experts in the field of water quality monitoring have been prepared. Results are gathered through formal and informal interviews. The interviewed respondents will be the local water authority of the Pangani Water Basin Board, members of NGOs, employees of hospitals, health centres and dispensaries, head of the health department of the Mwanga district, several heads of villages and adults of various households. The main question for the health effects of floods is whether there are any diseases outbreaks caused by floods and if this is the case, which diseases and how will this affect the number of patients. To find out the before-mentioned effect of floods on public health, the number of sick individuals caused by floods is asked both in numbers and in percentages of the population of a village. In addition, this research tends to find the monetary value of this increase in patients, as a result of floods. This paper will do this by valuating the lost work days of the extra patients and multiplying this by the average wage in the region.

Water - As explained in the theoretical framework, diseases such as cholera and diarrhoea are quickly spread through floods. In Tanzania this mainly leads to costs that are related to medication of diseases and vaccinations (Clement, 2009). However, since there is no data on the increase in expenses of medicines and vaccinations for inhabitants of affected villages, this paper does not mention monetary values on the costs of worsened public health. Instead, through interviews, this paper tends to find the availability and quality of water in the Kilimanjaro rural region and the effect of a flood on the quality of water.

All the results will be acquired through field research via interviews, with employees of health centres, head of the village and locals. All questionnaires will be conducted in the rural areas in the Kilimanjaro region, in local villages, which experience regular floods and droughts.

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3.7 3.7.1

Infrastructure Theoretical Research

The impact of floods on infrastructure can be severe and damaging. The two beforementioned chosen assets of infrastructure are available and used in the Kilimanjaro region.

This paper will split the infrastructural value into two values of transportation infrastructures in the Kilimanjaro region. Firstly, the value of the roads is examined; secondly the value of railways is examined. To find this monetary value we use the method of replacement costs as stated in the general methodology. This method brings a quantitative monetary amount to a kilometre of road and railway track. When these are found the severity of the damage has to be determined. This is split in four categories following the United Nations Development Programme (2014): • Minor Damage: damage of less than or equal to 10% of the road area.

• Major Damage: damage of more than 10% and less than or equal to 35% of the road area.

• Severe Damage: damage of more than 35% and less than or equal to 70% of the road area.

• Total Damage: damage of more than 70% of the road area.

If the damage is categorised in the first category 25% of the construction costs of a kilometre of road is charged, in the second category 50% of the construction costs are charged, in the third category 75% of the construction costs are charged and if the damage falls in the last category 100% of the construction costs is charged.

With the value per kilometre and the severity of the damage available it is possible to calculate the total values, this is done by looking to the total kilometres of road and railway track in the Kilimanjaro region multiplied with the costs per kilometre.

The database used is the database of the African Development Bank Group, and is called the African Infrastructure Country Diagnostic (AICD). This group notates all available information about infrastructure in Africa categorized by country, sector and theme. The available options used in the category sector are roads and railways. In the category theme all available options are chosen. Government information is only used in collecting basic info about the region.

3.7.2

Field Research

Field research in the Kilimanjaro region will focus on checking the data that has been found in literature. The agency of roads of the Kilimanjaro region is located near Moshi and is visited in order to check the amounts found in literature. If the local government is not able to provide the necessary numbers alternative ways are used to find the numbers.

These alternative ways can be: contacting local construction companies to determine the price of building a road, contacting local public transport to determine the amounts of kilometres and asking locals about the problems of the roads. Next to these calculations the impact the damaged infrastructure has on the lives of the on residents is examined through surveys. The surveys are conducted in the survey areas already mentioned in this paper. See the appendix for the surveys.

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With the results of the surveys the impact of the floods on people their normal lives can be registered. These results do not hold a monetary value but give an implication on the severity of the problem for the local people.

3.8 3.8.1

Buildings Theoretical Research

For all the subjects under buildings applies that; together with data retrieved from the field research that is discussed below, the results will be combined and compared to estimate the total benefits of the Justdiggit project for three scenarios, a 1%, 5% and 10% decrease in floods respectively.

Housing - The first step of conducting desk research, is finding out whether the effect of floods on houses is existent in Tanzania. Several sources mention the effect of floods on houses, in multiple regions and continents (Floodlist, 2016). However, a more detailed account is needed of floods in the Kilimanjaro area specifically. Therefore, the Kilimanjaro Regional Profile of 2016 is used as the main source of information regarding housing of people in the region.

Hospitals - In order to retract usable quantifiable data concerning monetary damage to health facilities/hospitals, it is necessary to find exact financial data regarding the average number of hospitals destroyed per flood and the average financial damage per hospital per flood. As exact numbers are quite difficult to come by another method is used in order to estimate these numbers. Considering that the number of houses affected by flooding in Tanzania on average is known (see the paragraph on ‘Less damaged houses’), we can extract the number of hospitals affected on average as well, as there are a certain number of houses (households) per hospital. The exact way this is calculated is as follows: data about the amount of health facilities/hospitals in the region of investigation, the number of inhabitants and the average size of a households are collected. With this information we know the number of inhabitants per health facility/hospital on average in this region. The houses affected, are multiplied by the average household size result in the average number of affected people in the area. As the average number of people per health facility/hospital is known, we can extrapolate this to the number of health facilities affected. This method provides the best possibility of estimating the direct cost of the average number of affected hospitals in Tanzania with the means available of desk research. Next to the material damage caused by the flooding to the hospitals, it is also necessary to incorporate the indirect cost of the disfunctioning of a hospital. Therefore, quantitative data needs to be found estimating the average cost per day of a hospital that is out of use, in combination with the average number of days a hospital is out of service as result of an average flooding. Subsequently a monetary value is added for the cost per patient per day. This may be substituted by the cost per bed per day in a hospital, which is a more commonly used unit of measurement for hospitals. This method provides the best possibility of realistically estimating the indirect cost of the average number of affected hospitals in Tanzania with the means available of desk research. However, necessary to be noted, this indirect cost does not have priority and will therefore only be researched when the time restrictions allow it. Data on hospitals and its patients are gathered via governmental statistical bureaus. For the direct costs a list of the operating

29

health facilities in 2014 is used, gathered from the Tanzanian Government Open Data Portal (Opendata, 2014). For the indirect costs, data of the World Health Organization that estimates the Unit costs for patient services (cost per bed per day) for the United Republic of Tanzania [WHO, 2016].

Schools - The same problem stated by hospitals applies for schools; it is difficult to obtain the exact numbers of schools that are damaged by floods. The calculation of the total number of houses destroyed by floods in Tanzania (see the paragraph Less damaged houses) is used to calculate the amount of schools damaged by floods. From the Basic Demographic and socioeconomic Profile Report (Basic Demographic and socioeconomic Profile Report Tanzania Mainland, 2014), data about the amount of schools in the region of investigation, the number of inhabitants and the average size of a households are collected. With this information we know the number of inhabitants per school on average, in this region. The houses affected, are multiplied by the average household size. This will result in the average number of affected people in the area. As the average number of people per school is known, we can extrapolate this to the number of schools affected.

Besides the direct damage to buildings, we look at the indirect damage caused by floods.

This indirect damage consists of lost schooldays as a cause of damage to the school buildings and roads. With the help of field work, the average amount of lost school days shall be obtained. Because of the difficulty to quantify lost schooldays, a monetary value is not calculated.

3.8.2

Field Research

Housing - The field work information is gathered through surveys, local meetings and several interviews. The surveys were conducted in several villages in the Kilimanjaro Area: Kahe-east, Kahe-west and Kyomu. Each survey consists of questions about the total number of floods occurred and how many times a house was damaged due to a flood. Furthermore, it contained questions about the total damage to a house due to a flood. The gathering of information in small villages and settlements, which experienced floods and/or drought. The value of both a mud house and a brick house and the % of mud houses and brick houses in the area are found, using the percentage of brick houses compared to mud houses, and their respective prices. The average price of a house in the Kilimanjaro region is calculated, using the before-mentioned information. Using this information, combined with the outcomes of the surveys, the flood damage per year is calculated in two ways: Damage per year = average % of houses destroyed · Price of house1 · # houses damaged p/y

(1)

Damage per year = average cost of damage per house · # houses damaged p/y

(2)

The outcomes of (1) and (2) give a range in between which the yearly damage due to floods is predicted to lay. The last step is to calculate the change in costs after a flood due to the Justdiggit project by using the scenarios analysis earlier mentioned.

1

Mud and pole house

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Hospitals - In order to assess the damage from the results of the interviews, the replacement cost method is used to determine the monetary damage/value to hospitals as a cause of floods. In the area of focus, multiple villages are visited to inquire information about the history of floods, the inhabitants of the villages, the incurred damage to the buildings, the average value of the building and the average size of the building (patient capacity, hospital beds). This information will be gathered by interviewing different employees of health centres and hospitals. The information will lead to the monetary value of the damage via the following calculation: % of areas in the Kilimanjaro area experience floods % of dispensaries damaged due to floods value of dispensaries average amount of floods in the area monetary value of the damage

¡ ¡ ¡ =

(3)

Schools - For the field research the method described in the paragraph hospitals is applied. The same information is gathered to identify with the total cost savings of the Justdiggit project for this subcategory. The information will be gathered by interviewing different employees of schools. To decide on the size of the schools, the total number of students are used as indicator. In the end the same scenarios mentioned in the general methodology is used to extrapolate the average damage to schools to the entire Kilimanjaro region.

3.9

Social Relations

3.9.1

Theoretical Research

3.9.2

Field Research

During the field research on location in Tanzania, data on women empowerment and migration is selected through interviews and focus groups with the different stakeholders.

The relations between people and villages is very hard to quantify in terms of money and numbers, which is beyond the scope of this research. Therefore the research on social relations will be solely qualitative. The focus groups will consist of groups of about five people and two researchers to start the discussion. With the data from the interviews it will be possible to describe the current situation and confirm who the stakeholders are and what their views are. During the focus group we will organise a discussion between small groups of the different stakeholders in order to discuss how the situation should look like in the future. Data on social relations within and between communities is selected solely through interviews with the different stakeholders. This data is used to describe the situation and the problems or opportunities, which might influence the project. The collected data will be used to analyse how the current situations will influence the introduction of the Justdiggit project and consist of advice on how to implement the project best. The interviews will be based on a topic list which can be found in the appendix.

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3.10

Economic Growth

3.10.1

Theoretical Research

Due to the fact that economic growth and the before-mentioned effect education are strongly integrated in this research. The monetary quantification of economic growth, as a result of increased availability and quality of education, will be presented in the result of education.

In order to quantify the benefits of improved education for the United Republic of Tanzania’s Ministry of Education and Vocational Training, the alternative cost technique is used. To create the value of education to society, indirectly, the value of one student has to be identified. Several indicators are of importance when estimating the value of a student and therewith the value of education.

All data that will be used originates from the data World Bank. The World Bank collects and processes large amounts of data and generates them on the basis of economic models. These data and models have gradually been made available to the public in a way that encourages reuse, whereas the recent publications describing them are available as open access under a Creative Commons Attribution License. Data from the World Bank is very reliable and easy-to-compare with other countries, in that a way a general model where absolute monetary value can be estimated, re-created and re-used by the Justdiggit project.

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4 4.1 4.1.1

Results Crop Yield Theoretical Results

To give an example on how to measure the costs and benefits of a technique to increase soil moisture a case study is discussed. An evaluation of the economic return of the development of bunds, dikes and gully plugs in India was undertaken at six sites by Despande and Dey (1999). The findings show that the use of the gully plugs and various bunds under the wet watershed program resulted in various benefits. To make the costs and benefits analyses a monetary value has to be given to these benefits translated into an increase in the gross production value from $ 370 to over $ 3,500 /ha. Better soils and improved access to water also lead to an increase in land value, from $ 646 to $ 1,772/ha.

The benefits, therefore, far outweighed the average investment costs of $ 90/ha (Despande and Dey, 1999). This example shows that projects similar to the Justdiggit project can be profitable.

To determine the monetary benefit of more agriculture, market prices are used. To know the return of a hectare of cropland, the yield of that land is important. The World Bank has data on the yield of hectares planted with cereal in general. This category includes, among others, wheat, rice and maize. The tabel below shows the cereal yield in Tanzania over the time. It is assumed that these changes are mostly due to changes in weather conditions over the years. This implies that all crops are affected by these changes, although some will be more affected by this than others.

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Figure 6: Cereal Yield Tanzania (kg/hectare) 2

Data on individual crops is available from the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008, which had, according to the World Bank data, an average crop yield (1427 and 1333 kg/hectare, respectively). This makes it a good year to compare the yield of different crops. In the following table, the yield is displayed of four crops that are grown in the Moshi area. A difference can be identified between the short and long rain season. This is in the northern to northeastern edge of Tanzania from October to December and March to May, respectively (Minot 2010, p.1). Combining these data with prices results in a return per hectare. Maize is used as an example. Maize prices in 2007 and 2008 vary between 100 and 300 US dollar per metric ton (Minot 2010, p.6). This results in a return per hectare between (1,332*100=) 133,2 and (1,332*300=) 399,6 US dollar per hectare.

Table 1: Cropyield for different crops in 2007-2008 Crop \Season Maize Beans Cotton Tobacco

Short Rainy 1,171 0,750 0,895 0,937

Long Rainy

Both

1,377 1,332 0,767 0,761 0,801 0,821 1,102 1,092

The variation in price is due to, among other factors, the different supply of maize 2

WorldBank (2016)

34

through the year. Just after the harvest, when there is an abundance of maize, the price drops. Throughout the year, the price builds up due to scarcity. Near the end of each year, crop prices start to increase until the harvest. A difference in months is seen between areas. In the Arusha area, the harvest is later because of a different rainfall pattern, resulting in a later (July vs. May) harvest and price drop (Minot 2010). The short rain season in combination with the high prices in the early months of the year can result in large revenues from crop yield. When the Justdiggit project enables farmers to grow more crops during this rain season, this would result in the largest benefit. Aside from the monetary revenue resulting from this crop yield, food scarcity will be reduced in the early months.

The yearly increase in crop prices is clearly reflected in general inflation. In the following figure, it can be seen that inflation is highest every year around New Year (Trading Economics 2016). This suggests that reducing the changing of crop prices would have a stabilizing effect on general inflation.

Figure 7: Cereal Yield Tanzania (kg/hectare)

Besides the effect of more soil moisture and less erosion, the reduction of floods affects crop yields as well. This effect will be discussed below.

Most of the damage to crops caused by floods comes from unexpected floods in the small rain season. When there is an unexpected flood, farmers are not able to harvest their crops in time (TU Delft paper, 2016). For conducting the results of the desk research, the values found in the research of TU Delft will be used. In the paper the total damage for the lower Moshi area is calculated and comes down to a total value of 873,737,000 TSH (=397,980.26 USD).

The research area, however, is not the Kilimanjaro Region, but the Lower Moshi area.

To acquire the total damage for the Kilimanjaro region, the value will be extrapolated with the help of the total inhabitants in the regions. The lower Moshi area has a population of 75.000. The acquired damage to crops by floods is determined to be 873,737,000 TSH (=397,980.26USD) (TU Delft paper, 2016). Considering that 1.640.087 people live in the whole Kilimanjaro region, one can extrapolate the found number to the entire region, multiplying the 873,737,000 TSH (=397,980.26 USD) by (1.640.087/75.000 = 21.8678) by 35

21.8678., which results in a total damage to crops of 19,106,729.27 TSH (=870,296,3.28 USD) by floods.

The 1%, 5%, 10% scenarios, which are introduced in the methodology section, are used to give an indication about the total benefits of the Justdiggit project per year. The 1% less floods scenario gives a total reduction of costs of: 1% of 191,067.29TSH(=87.03USD) per year. The 5% scenario gives a total reduction of costs of: 5% of 955,336.46 TSH(=435.14 USD) per year. Lastly, the 10% scenario gives a total reduction of costs of: 10% of 1,910,672.92 TSH(=870,296 USD) per year.

4.1.2

Field Research Results

While conducting field research, it was discovered that several crops are being cultivated in the Kilimanjaro region. These include coffee, rice, maize, sugarcane, bananas, beans, peas and several vegetables. Most of the farmers that were interviewed are totally dependent on the yield of these crops for their income. Throughout the weeks it was found that these crops have different characteristics regarding, among others: yield, water needed for growth and price. After discussing these characteristics for different stakeholders in the region a summary for the TPC plantation will be given.

To give an overview of the production yield in the Kilimanjaro, area specific stakeholders and the results from surveys will be discussed.

Inside the territory of TPC there are several small villages where farmers have their own land which they use for agricultural purpose. One of the villages named is Mijongweni located near the river Weru Weru which provides the entire village of water whole year around. The three-year average crop yield per hectare and per year in this area is: 10 bags of rice, 3 bags of beans and 2 bags of maize according to the Patroon Agricultaral Technical Officer (PATO) near TPC. If the farmers use the right techniques and solve the water conflicts, they are able to harvest two times every year. This can increase their production to 10 bags of rice per hectare in the July to December harvest and 8 bags per hectare in the January to June harvest. Other crops that farmers grow in this region are bananas, potatoes and maize but production data is not available for them.

In Mwika in the highlands on the slope of Mount Kilimanjaro, different crops are produced, as the higher water availability in this region is higher than in the lowlands.

During a tour through the region with mister Merutu, a cooperative officer in Moshi. The crops that are produced in this region are bananas, coffee, avocados and vegetables. It became clear that all crops are produced along each other. Therefor it is impossible to gather production data per acre.

Water availability - In the Kilimanjaro Region, a clear distinction in water availability needs to be made between the lowlands and the highlands. In the lowlands water is quite scarce and distribution is done by irrigation from local rivers and springs. Water scarcity is less of a problem in the highlands where melting water from the Kilimanjaro provides the land with water. To illustrate this a few areas will be discussed.

In Mijongweni every farmer gets an almost equal amount of water depending on the size of his land through a system of irrigation canals and dykes. Farmers who have their farms closer to the river get a higher share because less water is lost due to water leaking away in irrigation canals. Regardless of this inequality, land closer to the river is not more expensive. Although this information comes from a specific area in the Kilimanjaro region,

36

it can be applied to other lowland areas in the region because the irrigation conditions are quite similar. The reason therefore is that the government pays for the construction of the irrigation canals and applies the same technique in the region. The only difference is the building material for the canals: Cement or dirt. The use of cement reduces the amount of water, which is leaking away in the canals improving the amount of water available to the farmers. However irrigation is not a part of the Justdiggit project this example makes it clear that a whole year constant access to water leads to an improved crop yield for farmers.

The Milaweni water source (Lowlands) provides the region southeast from Moshi with water with a production of 3,016 litres per second. From this spring two streams branch out. The biggest streams goes to the TPC and approximately 3,000 farmers, who own 1,600 hectares of land in total, work there. They have to pay for this water permit to the Water Users Association. TPC pays 10 million TSH (=4554.92 USD) per year for 1,700 litres per second while the farmers only pay 300 thousand TSH (=136.65 USD) for 900 litres per second. The price per m3 per year is 0.1869 TSH (≤ 0.01 USD) for TPC and 0.0105 TSH (≤0.01 USD) for the farmers. This gives an indication about the value of water to the local farmers.

In Mwika (Highlands), more water is available to the farmers because of a continuously water stream from Mount Kilimanjaro. This results in more soil moisture and a smaller difference between the dry and rain season. Due to this, farmers need to grow different types of crops, which can be found later on in the crop yield section. Even in the dry season enough water is available for the farmers. In the wet season the local rivers get more water than they can handle which causes floods. To prevent this from happening local farmers are using the same technique as the ones suggested by the Justdiggit project.

The dykes they dug on their land prevented the fertile soil from eroding. Mr. Mrutu stated that a clear improvement was visible between farmers who had dug those dykes and the ones who had not. However, no data is available on this effect. But this shows that even in areas where water availability is not that much of a problem, the effect of the Justdiggit project can be substantial. Moreover, Mr. Mutu was enthusiastic about the Justdiggit project. He stated that similar irrigation programs in the region had proven to be successful and he expected high benefits for the local farmers.

The examples stated above show the importance of the Justdiggit project and the value of water to the local farmers.

Price - For an estimation of the benefits of the Justdiggit project, the prices of different crops are an important factor. To discover the value of a harvest, the prices were obtained from different crops. Although people measure their crops on different ways (kilograms/bags/buckets/pick-ups/production of one hectare), it was possible to get an overview of the different prices farmers get for their crops. Together with the yield of the land these crops were cultivated on, the revenue per hectare was calculated per crop.

This is summarized in the table below. The figures in this table are based on interviews with local stakeholders.

37

Table 2: Revenue Crop Maize Rice5 Beans Sugar Onions

Yield low3 ha 20 45 NA 100 NA

Yield high4 ha

TZSH 100 kg

USD 100 kg

Revenue low ha

Revenue high ha

37.5 60,000 75 60,000 12.5 60,000 120 167,650 150 210,000

27.33 27.33 27.33 76.38 95.67

$546.70 $1.230.07 NA $7.637.81 NA

$1,025.06 $2,050.11 $341.69 $9,165.38 $14,350.80

What can be seen from Table 2 is that some crops have higher revenue than others. At the same time, the crops that generate lower revenue, like maize and beans, are cultivated at large scale by local farmers. This has much to do with education about the cultivation and profit of the different crops. Many small farmers stick to their crops because they do not know how to grow other crops or because of the simple reason they have always been doing this.

However, taking together the fact that farmers need more water for some crops and the higher prices of these crops, results in a revenue increase when more water is available.

If, for example, a farmer that has a hectare of maize gets more water available because of the Justdiggit project and is able to produce rice instead. This leads to a revenue increase of approximately (1230.07*2-546.70=) 1,913.44 USD. But market prices could decline due to a higher quantity of crops available for sale. Sugar or vegetables would increase their yield even further, even though these crops use less water than rice. With enough water available in the region and by educating the local farmers on these facts the income level of the entire region can be improved.

The results obtained during the field research were not only found during interviews, many results were found by conducting surveys as can be seen below.

Under the 152 respondents of the survey, 108 were working as a farmer. To 55 of them was asked if the amount of rainwater was an important factor in determining the crop yield. 51 of them answered, “YES�, which is 92,73%.

Another question to the farmers was how much they think their harvest could improve if more water becomes available. In total, 22 farmers gave an amount of kilograms by how much they thought their harvest could improve as a consequence of more water availability, which will result from the Justdiggit project. The average increase in kilograms was 10,000.45. However, some extreme outliers were found in the data.

Another interesting result from the data is the following: The 43 farmers that indicated how much their harvest in both the small rain and the big rain season had an average of 1,051 kilograms for the small rain season. For the big rain season on the other hand, this number was much higher: 4,947 kilograms on average per farmer. This statistic shows the importance of water for the harvest of farmers in the Kilimanjaro region. When the rainfall increased as a consequence of the Justdiggit project, and the difference between the small rain season and the big rain season becomes smaller, the farmers can benefit.

Not only the amounts of goods harvested will change after the Justdiggit project gets implemented, but also the types of crops will differ as a result of increased rainfall.

5 5

x100 kg (2x a year harvest)

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Table 3: Respondants: Do they cultivate, and which crop?

Type of crop

Cultivate?

Cultivate if more rain water is available?

Maize Rice Beans Onions Tomato Sweet Pepper Pepper Potatoes Bananas

37 16 31 29 21 9 9 4 15

53 27 37 36 31 19 24 13 25

Table 3 shows the amount of farmers that cultivate a certain crop in comparison the amount of farmers that would cultivate that specific type of crop if a sufficient amount of rainwater was available. Especially sweet pepper, pepper and potatoes would benefit: the amount of farmers that would produce these crops would more than double with higher water availability. The last questions of the survey were about the effect of floods on crops.

34 out of 70 respondents, that have experienced a flood, said they lost their crops due to the flood. On average they lost 46% of their harvest. This shows floods have impact on the harvest of farmers, in the desk research result section the impact is calculated

4.2 4.2.1

Grassland Theoretical Results

During the theoretical research, no market for animal nutrition in the Kilimanjaro Region could be found. Therefor it was impossible to calculate the market price during the desk research. All data used, is collected during field research.

4.2.2

Field Research Results

Firstly, after having studied the responses that have been collected from the surveys, the data set does not allow for a better understanding of how grass feedings are produced for own use. The respondents were not able to supply quantitative information regarding the costs that they had incurred in the establishment and maintenance of their grasslands which was needed to determine the replacement value of the grassland. Unfortunately, this implies that no real analysis can be conducted on the production of grass as forage for own use. This effect will therefore not be discussed further in the remainder of this paper.

Secondly, an attempt was made to analyse data regarding the production of grass feedings for sale. George Murutu, a cooperative officer in Moshi, stated that in the Kilimanjaro Region there is a market for grass-based animal nutrition products but that this market has not developed itself profoundly and therefore cannot actually benefit the trade of these products yet. Furthermore, from dated research it can be concluded that a factor in the absence of a market for grass products is a lack of local seeds that are also not imported (FAO 1980). This finding confirms the information obtained while conducting field research.

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Given these findings, in the short run the Justdiggit project will not influence the grass product market significantly. According to Peter Jones, managing director at Ndarakwai Ranch, conventional grazing techniques are the most relied on for livestock grazing purposes. In his opinion however, these practices are being carried out on such a scale that make them unsustainable in the long run and cause the desertification of natural grasslands. Therefore, it is important for Justdiggit to consider the role planted grasslands can play in countering overgrazing and desertification, and how the Justdiggit project can affect such grasslands. Furthermore, as the increase in soil moisture restores natural grasslands, smallholder farmers and livestock holders are also left better off as they need to purchase less additional grass products for their production processes.

Finally, it is important to mention that despite not having been able to implement the earlier discussed methods, these remain valid in nature. The principles of replacement value and market value could be successful in determining the value of grasslands given their area. In order for this to be possible however, sufficient and reliable market data has to be available.

Despite earlier assumptions based on existing literature, crop residue products can be considered the most important type of animal nutrition that come from grasslands in the Kilimanjaro Region. This finding is based on both results from the surveys as well as interviews conducted throughout the field research.

Mr. Murutu, a cooperative officer, suggested that in the highland farms of the Kilimanjaro Region, crop residue products are the most important products on this market and that grass products are not commonly sold. This is because the owners of livestock are faced with constrained land availability and therefore feed the animals by just letting them graze on their own grasslands, especially on the lowlands.

For these products there is a market in the Moshi Region. Visiting a local animal food shop taught that these shops use to buy crop residue products made of both maize and rice from farmers and thereafter sell it to livestock owners. The maize product was of most interest. The shop co-worker told that during dry seasons the price for which the shop buys its maize residue product is between 377 and 471 TSH per kilogram (=0.17 0.21 USD) while in normal season the price is 315 TSH per kilogram (=0.14 USD). Taken the income of local people into account it is a serious difference.

The results of the surveys can be seen below. In total, 19 respondents indicated to sell crop residue as animal feeding on the market. The average price for which the respondents claim to sell their product is 17167 TSH per kilogram (=8.00 USD). Apart from the maize product it was not possible to distillate prices of other specific crop residues since most of the farmers grow different kind of crops and do not sell these separately. So if the same range (21%-50%) derived from the interview is applied to the results of the surveys this gives possible prices in dry season from $9.68 to $12 instead of $8. This will also increase the possible benefits of Justdiggit.

4.3

Floods

4.3.1

Theoretical Results

4.3.2

Field Research Results

The following results have been gathered through the interviews in the Kilimanjaro region There are two types of floods. The first type originates from the river (river gets overflowed) and the second type originates from the mountain. However, people experienced 40

some benefits of floods. This occurs when the river floods are not too high, so that they can use it for growing their land instead of that it damages their properties. Especially in villages where there is no rainfall, the water from floods can be used for irrigation. The frequency and magnitude of floods differs per village.

During the interviews, several heads of villages have given an indication of the frequency, magnitude and length of floods in their village. For example, in Msitu Wa T-embo and Londoto, at least one flood from the mountain occurs during the long rain season (Masika). In contrast, in one village in Kahe-East floods occurred in 1990 and 2016 only, yet they were very intense. The flood in 2016 lasted for one full month with a water level of one meter. However, in another small village in Kahe-East, called Musifini, floods occur every year. These floods are caused by the overflowing of the riverbank near the village, due to heavy rainfall. Further, according to the head of the Msamaria Children Centre in Moshi, there is almost no damage in big towns such as Moshi, where the damage is only visible through the muddy grounds. Moreover, the water management officer of the Mwanga district stated that on average there is one flood in every two years. Overall, there is no consistent duration of a flood, because of the different circumstances, such as rainfall, geographical location and preventative measures. The interviews indicated that a flood can last from a few days to two months, depending on the situation.

Table 4: Overview of the places, in the Moshi rural area who experienced a flood

4.4 4.4.1

Year

Event

Ward/Village affected

2006 2007 2008

Floods Floods Floods

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Floods Floods Floods Floods Floods

Mandaka Mnono Kahe, Mwangaria, Kisangesangeni, Rau river Kibosho mashariki, Kibosho Magharibi, Kindi, Sisamaro, Kichave, Manushi, Maua, Kirima, Kombo, Mtakuja and Umbwe Kahe, Mwangaria, Ghona and Kyomu Mabogini, Kisangesangeni and Uchira Arusha Chini, Mikocheni and Chemichemi Arusha Chini. Mikocheni and Chemichemi Mandaka Mnono, Soko, Mwangaria and Kisangesangeni

Buildings Theoretical Results

Housing - According to the Kilimanjaro Regional Profile (2016) 68% of all private households in Kilimanjaro region have houses of cement bricks, sundried bricks, or baked bricks. 20% has houses build of poles and mud. This means that the relative percentage of mud and pole houses is 23% and the relative percentage of houses made by bricks is 77%.

Hospitals & Schools - In this paper’s desk research we will make extensive use of a research conducted by the Technical University of Delft on water management in the Lower Moshi area (Eitjes, Eslhof, Guijt, Loon, & Mureau, 2016). The research area, however, is not the Kilimanjaro area, but the Lower Moshi area, populated with 75.000 people.

41

The acquired damage to assets by floods is determined to be 8.000.000 TSH. Considering that 1.640.087 people live in the whole Kilimanjaro region, one can extrapolate the found number to the entire region, multiplying the 8 million TSH by (1.640.087/75.000), which results in a total damage to both hospitals and schools of 174.942.613 TSH by floods.

The 1%, 5%, 10% scenarios, which are introduced in the methodology section, are used to give an indication about the total benefits of the Justdiggit project per year. The 1% less floods scenario gives a total reduction of costs of 1%: 1.749.426 TSH (=796,85 USD). The 5% scenario gives a total reduction of costs of 5%: 8.747.131 TSH (=3984,25 USD). Lastly, the 10% scenario gives a total reduction of costs of 10%: 17.494.261 TSH (=7968,50 USD).

4.4.2

Field Research Results

Results are retrieved from two main sources: a local report of the Moshi Rural District council and interviews with the local population.

Whereas the Kilimanjaro Regional Profile (2016) states that only 20% of houses are built of poles and mud (Basic Demographic and socioeconomic Profile Kilimanjaro region, 2016). According to interviews, which results can be found in the database, the average price of a mud and pole house is between 2,000,000 and 4,000,000 TSH. For our research the average of 3,000,000 TSH is used.

Housing - According to a report constructed for the purpose of this research by the regional office of the Moshi rural region (2016), which uses data from 2006 – 2016, and is explained in the general building results section, the average number of houses affected per year is 278. For the years 2009 to 2011 the data about the floods is not available.

Hence these years are excluded of the research scope. Since the main source of the flood is said to be heavy rainfall, this rainfall occurs not only in one district but over the whole Kilimanjaro region. Hence, the number of households affected depends on the sorts of houses, since some houses are more resistant to floods due to rainfall than others. Having been to Hai district, Moshi rural district, Moshi municipality district and Mwanga district (4 out of the 7 districts) and having made observations about the types of houses in the different villages, we decided to extrapolate the findings of the number of houses destroyed to the Kilimanjaro region. Since we do only have detailed flood data on the Moshi rural area, the number of houses destroyed due to floods each year is extrapolated to the other regions on a 1:1 scale. This particular scale is used since Moshi rural area lies on the foot of the Kilimanjaro, as do Hai, Shiha and Moshi urban. Rombo includes the peak of the Kilimanjaro whereas Same and Mwanga lie lower. However, the lower amount of damaged houses expected in Rombo is made up for by the higher amount in Same and Mwanga, since the floods are heavier there. Lastly, the number of houses destroyed are adjusted according to the number of houses of each region.

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Table 5: Estimated number of houses damaged by floods District Moshi municipality Moshi Rural Mwanga (lower) Hai (foot) Same (lowest) Rombo (peak) Siha (foot) Total

# houses

# houses destroyed

45,591 109,878 29,996 50,242 59,480 59,408 26,931 381,526

NA 278 76 127 150 150 68 850

According to the questionnaires, the average cost of damage per house is 2,419,251 TSH (1101.95$), the average percentage of house destroyed is 62%. As explained in the methodology section, damage per year is calculated in two different ways.

Damage = average % of houses destroyed · Price of house6 · # houses damaged p/y

(1)

Damage =0.62 · 3822.31 · 850 = 2, 014, 357.37$

(1)

Damage per year = average cost of damage per house · # houses damaged p/y Damage per year =1101.95 · 850 = 936, 657.50$

(2) (2)

The percentage less floods scenario gives a total reduction of costs of: 1. A 1% reduction in floods causes a gain between 9366.58$ and 20143.57$ a year 2. A 5% reduction in floods causes a gain between 46832.88$ and 100717.87$ a year 3. A 10% reduction in floods causes a gain between 93665.75$ and 201435.74$ a year Hospitals - After having visited the Mwanga districht, the Moshi rural and Moshi municipality district (3 out of 7 districts in the Kilimanjaro region) and having acquired the total data overview of both the whole Kilimanjaro region and all separate district profiles, in combination with visits to small rural villages, results have been obtained in most of the necessary quantities and can be found in the Appendix.

There is a standard government concept for the construction of medical facilities (Kahe, 2016), in which hospitals are the most specialized and significant facilities, after which health centres and dispensaries come in lower rank. This concept is applied nationwide. Hospitals are mostly found in the main cities, health centres are also located in the urban areas and only dispensaries can be found on the farm lands and in the little settlements that exist there.

As can be concluded from all interviews with: heads of villages, most prominent medical facility personnel and citizens; “the medical facilities that are located in the urban 6

Mud and pole house

43

areas (hospitals and health centres) are such solid buildings that these never experience any damage of floods. Only the dispensaries located in the rural areas, being the areas that experience floods have flood damage after floods.� Furthermore, as can be extracted out of the interviews, a certain part of these dispensaries do not experience damage due to their location, resulting in minimal flood damage.

Due to the non-existence of data for the calculation, as presented in the methodology, this research will only refer to the values obtained in the desk research. Important to mention is that research does point out that indirectly most damage is experienced by the inability for people to reach these dispensaries.

Schools - By interviewing different employees of schools and with data gathered from the municipality, the data of the field work is compiled. Interviews are held in the following villages: Kahe-West, Kahe-East and Msufini. In Kahe-East different schools are visited in order to get a complete view of the situation. The geographical positioning of the school, for example its height or closeness to a river has a massive impact on the severity of the effects of a flood. The results are summarized in the Appendix.

None of the schools that are visited experienced damage to the school building because of floods. By the use of canals and a foundering, the rainwater is not able to overflow the school buildings. In contrast to the school buildings, the toilets of the schools in every village where they experienced floods, were destroyed. Damage to the toilets are the biggest problem becaause of high costs forof repairing the toilets and health issues.

In all the villages, the community has to bear the costs for the damage. This makes the community one of the most affected stakeholder when it comes down to damage to school buildings because of floods. For the calculation of the monetary value of the damage, general data about floods is needed. During the field work we experienced that it is difficult to obtain the exact data, due to the fact that the situation is different in every area and because a lot of data about floods is not registered. As a consequence, it is not possible to calculate a monetary value for the damage.

As mentioned in the methodology, lost schooldays will not be quantified, that’s why a more qualitative study is conducted. The number of lost school days depends on the region the school is positioned. Not all schools experienced floods and the students from those villages were always able to go to school. The problem is that a lot of students need to come from different villages, were in contrast, there are problems with floods. At first, these children are not able to go to school because the school is not reachable because of the floods. Secondly, because of the diseases born by the floods, from which the children can be affected. The amount of lost school days depends on the intensity of the flood and the area the students live. The number of lost school days gathered from the interviews varied between one week to one or two months till sometimes the whole rain season.

4.5 4.5.1

Infrastructure Theoretical Results

The true cost of building a kilometre of road has extreme variances; this is due to different costs from labour, materials and mostly the shape of the terrain. Building a road on plain grounds is less expensive than building a road in the mountains. Tanzania has 49 thousand kilometres of roads divided into three categories: primary roads (11.5%), secondary roads (35.7%) and tertiary roads (32.8%) (African Development Bank Group, 2011). This paper takes two sources into account: the first is the AICD, the second is a research 44

conducted by Gwilliam et al. in 2008. The AICD notes an average price of a kilometre of road in Tanzania at 2,454$ for construction and at 2,637$ for maintenance (African Development Bank Group, 2011). The paper however calculates a higher cost for an average kilometre of road in sub-Saharan Africa, 9,000$ and finds that the government’s budget for maintenance of all the roads of Tanzania is 5$ per capita per year (Gwilliam, et al., 2008).

The railway network in Tanzania has three main lines, the line from Dar es Salaam to Kasam in Zambia the line between Dar es Salaam through Dodoma to Kigoma in the West of Tanzania and the line between Dar es Salaam and Nairobi/Mombasa in Kenya.

The last network is taken into account since this track runs through the Kilimanjaro region. Here the replacement costs were calculated by looking at similar railway tracks since there is no reliable average calculated by others. At these similar railway tracks the construction costs per kilometre are taken into account. For choosing similar railway tracks one has to look at the region as well as the construction period. The last due to the fact that new techniques are developed to construct a rail track in the past decade.

This paper looks at the construction of a railway track in South-Africa and Swaziland, in 2014 the transit companies of both countries joined forces. They started developing a 146kilometer line between Lothair in South Africa and Sidvokodvo Swaziland. The project is estimated to cost $2.2 billion, coming to an average of $15.068.493 per kilometre (IPS, 2012). The project is very relevant in terms of relevance, and the region is somewhat alike the campaign region. The other railway line that is taken into account is the Tazara (Tanzania-Zambia). This project was constructed between 1970 and 1975 and had a track of 1,155 miles7 , transferred to kilometres this comes to 1.858,7 kilometres of track. The construction cost where 182.6 million pounds at that time, this money converted into current value comes to total costs 6,094 billion pounds (Officer & Williamson, 2014).

When the number of kilometres divides the total costs an average of 3,278,635 pounds per kilometre comes out. This amount is equivalent to $4,769,102 per kilometre.

4.5.2

Field Research Results

Roads - The price of a road has been found in the interview with the agency of roads located in Moshi. The interview was conducted with Eng Baraka John Mwambage who is the head of the planning unit of Tanzania Roads agency Kilimanjaro. They have jurisdiction of 986.24 kilometres of roads out of 3682.9 kilometres in the entire Kilimanjaro region. The 3682.9 kilometres are divided into 496.3 kilometres of tarmac roads, 1,415 kilometres of gravel roads and 1,771.6 kilometres of earth road as was stated in the 2015 report of the prime minister’s office regional district report on the Kilimanjaro region.

He stated: ”cost of constructing a kilometre of road varies between 600 and a 1000 million TSH”. However the supervision of Tanroads is not a representative amount since the agency barely supervises earth roads. However, another source (head of the Kyomu village) stated: “these roads are the least valuable and can be built for 40-60 million TSH per kilometre”.

7

1 mile is 1.609344 kilometers

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Table 6: Total damage ro roads in the area Type of road Tarmac Gravel Earth SUM

KM of road

Costs per KM in TSH

KM*Costs per KM

496.3 1415.0 1771.6 3682.9

1,000,000,000 600,000,000 50,000,000 1,650,000,000

4,96E+14 8,49E+14 8,86E+13 1,43E+15

The damage to the road depends on the location of the road and the type of road. For example the damage that occurs to the roads supervised by the Tanzania Roads agency Kilimanjaro is 0.152% per year on average. This would make the damage fall in the first category of the 4 categories given in the methodology. The costs occurred with this damage is 388,189 TSH a year on average (Mwambage, 2016).

The value of the damage to the roads due to floods in the villages is severe during the entire rain seasons. In an interview with the dean and students of the secondary school of Msitu Wa Tembo the impact of the floods was shown. He stated: “during the months of January until March on average half of the school’s students is not able to attend classes since they cannot travel the damaged and flooded roads”. In the village Landoto the head of the village, mentioned: “floods happening in the region destroy infrastructure and make the infrastructure not useable for a period of time”. He claims they have to reconstruct their roads every 10 years, which gives an average damage of 10%. The roads in these villages are earth roads without exception (Head of the Landoto Village, 2016).

Categorising the damage in the first category mentioned in the methodology, 25% of the construction costs is taken. With the assumption made that every kilometre of earth road has the same damage every year and a quarter of the total kilometres are affected by floods the total costs of earth roads damaged is: 1771.6 ∗ 0.25 ∗ 50, 000, 000 ∗ 0.25 ∗ 0.1 = 553, 625, 000 TZS

(4)

These figures are transferred to the scenarios in order to know the monetary positive value of the Justdiggit campaign, the first amount is for the earth roads the second amount is for the tarmac and gravel roads: • 1% scenario; 5, 536, 250 TSH + 3, 881 TSH = 5, 540, 131 TSH(2, 523 USD) • 5% scenario; 27, 681, 250 TSH + 19, 409 TSH = 27, 700, 659 TSH(12, 617 USD) • 10% scenario; 55, 362, 500 TSH + 38, 818 TSH = 55, 401, 318 TSH(25, 235USD) The surveys that have been conducted for infrastructure were filled in by 43 people.

These people all lived in villages visited by the research team and were not randomly chosen. Therefore one has to notice that the surveys filled in are filled in by people living in villages chosen for the dryness of the land or the knowledge that they were affected by floods in the recent periods.

Table 7: Question: Not been able to travel normal route due to floods?

Ever not been able to travel normal route due to floods

#

YES NO

41 2

46

Table 8: Question: How often does this occur per year?

How often does this occur per year

#

0 1-2 3-4

1 35 2

Table 9: Question: Able to reach destination when this happens?

Able to reach destination when this happens

#

YES 11 NO 27

Table 10: Question: How long is the restoration time?

Restoration within

#

WEEKS MONTHS YEARS MORE

6 19 4 5

The results from the surveys tell us that these people mostly cannot travel one or twice a year due to floods. This costs them extra travel time, on average 15.68 hours. Hereby we can conclude that for these people the influence of floods on their lives is severe and often.

Railway Tracks - The railway track running through the Kilimanjaro region does exist as was known before the field research, however it does not work. In interviews with cab drivers, bus-drivers, urban and regional residents each and every one of them stated the same. Due to the high level of corruption and the importance of the truck companies in the income of local authorities the usage of the railway tracks is lowered to zero. The railway tracks are thus declining without any restoration programme or prevention programme, making the value of the railway tracks zero and not interesting for this research. This part thus has no field research results.

4.6

Health

4.6.1

Theoretical Results

4.6.2

Field Research Results

This section provides the results from the field research concerning the impact of floods on health.

47

Diseases Results from interviews on public health were gathered from the villages Kahe Maskariki (Kahe East), Msitu Wa Tembo and Londoto, and Kyomu, Soku and Mwangaria, The Mwanga district and Gosera. Almost all respondents from the villages indicated that there are outbreaks of diseases during floods. In Kahe East, diseases that break out during floods are mainly cholera, chistosomiasis and amoebiasis (the last two are both parasite infections). In Kyomu, Soko and Mwangaria outbreaks of diseases consist mostly of cholera and diarrhoea. The most prevalent diseases in the Mwanga district are at the moment Malaria, cholera, diarrheal diseases and typhoid. Finally, in Msitu Wa Tembo and Londoto a wide variety of diseases erupt during floods. Cholera is the main source of illness, but according to the headmaster of the secondary school there are also a high percentage of urinal infections. Other diseases that occur during floods according to respondents in the two villages are diarrhoea, chistosomiasis and amoebiasis, typhoid, and fever. Most important to note here is that for all villages cholera erupts and spreads during floods.

According to the head of the dispensary in Msitu Wa Tembo and Londoto, there were zero patients of cholera before the flood and 139 out of 8380 people were treated during the big rain season. However, villagers indicated that approximately 500 people suffered from this disease. The head of the dispensary in Kahe East also stated that the biggest problem concerning floods in cholera. The village experienced a flood in April, which caused an outbreak of cholera. Furthermore, the most leading disease in the Mwanga district is cholera, caused by floods according to head of the Health Department of the Mwanga district. During floods on average 30% of all patients who get a treatment has cholera or malaria. When there are no floods 20% of the patients have cholera or malaria.

Most of these patients are children and pregnant woman. During a cholera outbreak the government supports the victims of the area by providing help and free medicine.

Due to the limited time and difficulty in data collection (on average wages and lost work days), the monetary quantification of health, as a result of floods, could not be completed.

Water sources and water quality - The water quality in the Kilimanjaro area is considered of good quality by the Pangani Water Basin Board hydrologist working at the test center in Arusha. In contrast, people in rural areas use groundwater from boreholes and surface water. The largest issues with surface water are contamination with bacteria causing cholera during the rainy season. For example, the main sources of water in the Mwanga district are boreholes and surface water resulting in a lack of good-quality water in this district. On average, the amount of water available is unable to meet the needs of the households in that village. If there is not enough water, they pay 50TSH for 20 litres of water. Although 69% of the population has access to clean water, the insufficient good-quality water forces people to use contaminated surface water as well.

Lastly, from the various interviews conducted with heads of the villages it appeared that Msitu Wa Tembo and Londoto suffer the most from floods because of its low-lying area (slightly below the Kilimanjaro region). The head of the two villages explained that floods from the mountains (instead of the river) are the floods that cause damage. Floods from the mountain are polluted, because they carry the dirt from toilets from towns in the higher areas. As Msitu WA Tembo and Londoto are semi desert and still lacks a solid irrigation system, there is a shortage of water. Therefore, during a flood, people are likely to drink the polluted water that carries diseases such as cholera and are therefore quickly spread. This was confirmed by a Pangani Water Basin Board hydrologist who 48

explained that the urban provision of water hasn’t seen any major health issues in the last five years and is of good quality according to Tanzanian guidelines. However, rural areas are provided by water from boreholes and surface water. The surface water is known to have cholera bacteria caused by toilet water that has been dumped in upstream urban areas. Contrary to the desk research, the General Practitioner from Mawenzi Hospital pointed out that malaria problems are limited in the Kilimanjaro area. Compared to regions that have more problems, the temperatures in the Kilimanjaro area are low and preventative measures such as free medication and bed nets are mitigating the problems.

The reduction of malaria is confirmed by head of lab testing of the Pangani Water Basin Board.

4.7 4.7.1

Education Theoretical Results

The earlier mentioned stakeholders are affected in the following four ways.

1. Wealth impact - Several studies have shown that ecological restoration programs bring about positive economic benefits in rural areas, such as job opportunities, improved livelihoods and quality of life improvements (De Groot et al., 2013; Aronson et al., 2006). By hiring local people, the Justdiggit project will increase the locals’ income and cause economic growth in the area. Apart from that, economic welfare depends partly on the availability of natural capital (Clewell & Aronson, 2005). By restoring ecosystems and therefore increasing the quality and quantity of the natural capital, the Justdiggit project will improve living conditions and quality of life.

2. Higher demand (and availability) for (of ) education - Education is often viewed as the main route out of poverty in third world countries. However, many researchers suggest that poverty also constraints investment in human capital (Mehrota & DelaMonica, 1998). A paper by Glewwe and Jacoby (2004) investigated the wealth effect on education, by using data from an exponential household income growth in Vietnam, in the period 1993-1998. They found a significant positive relationship between changes in wealth and changes in demand for education. They also found that education is not constrained by poverty, rather the demand for schooling in developing countries is low.

The returns on education in developing countries are low, since the low-quality of education (Glewwe & Jacoby, 2004). Other researches support the claim that economic growth leads to higher demand for education and with that, the existence of a wealth effect (Ranis, 2000), (Lewis & Sabates, 2012). As stated above, the Justdiggit project could cause household income growth which through the wealth effect, will lead to a higher demand for education.

3. Higher quality in education - A research by Sifanu (2007) investigated the factors to increase quality of education, in a case study on Tanzania. He found that quality of education mainly depends on three factors: availability/quality of learning materials, appropriate infrastructure and competent teachers (Sifanu, 2007). The income and growth caused by the Justdiggit project, will cause parents to be able to afford learning materials for their children. Also, the effects of the Justdiggit project on infrastructure, which were

49

discussed in previous chapters, are positive. Justdiggit can therefore indirectly increase the quality of education.

4. Economic growth - As mentioned in the fourth-degree effect ‘Economic growth’, there exists a positive correlation between education and economic growth. The quantification on the subject education, and her stakeholder the government, will continue on these findings.

Education: Quantification - In the following chapter we will quantify, the beforementioned effects of education on the different stakeholders.

Table 11: Government expenditure on education (as % of GDP) and GDP growth Year

Government expenditure on education (as % of GDP)

GDP growth (%)

2006 2007 2013

3.1 3.3 3.5

6.7 7.1 2.9

Stakeholder 1: United Republic of Tanzania Ministry of Education and Vocational Training From Table 11 we can conclude a correlation, where an increase of investment in education of 1% of the GDP leads to a 1.65% GDP growth.

Figure 8: Economic value of education

To identify the absolute value, this paper will project the (by education improvements) caused GDP on the most recent GDP (2015: 44,9 billion USD): 44, 9 · 0, 0165 = 0, 74 USD billion = 740 USD million 50

(5)

Concluding that a 1% increase of investment in education will lead to an absolute (projected for 2016) GDP increase of 740 million USD. If we check the primary completion rate (i.e. the rate of students that complete primary education) of Tanzania in pairs of 2 years, we find: Table 12: Primary completion rate, Tanzania Year

Primary completion rate (both sexes, %)

GDP (%)

2006 2007 2009 2010 2012 2013

71,4 81,6 100,6 87,6 78,6 73,7

4,7 8,5 5,4 6,4 5,1 7,3

growth

From here we can conclude a positive relationship between the primary completion rate and GDP growth, where: y=GDP growth (in %)=0.0746. In other words: every 1% increase in students that complete primary school, will result in a GDP (economic) growth of 0.0746 (%).

Figure 9: Economic value of a student

When using the same technique for the first calculation to create an absolute value (make use of the most recent GDP: 44,9 billion) we find the absolute value of a primary school attainment relative to economic growth.

0.0746 ¡ 44.90 = 0.0335 USD billion (6) 100 51

, per +1% primary school attainment.

When we take the number of students that potentially could add value to the economic growth (when assuming an enrolment/primary completion rate of 100%), we find that the number of students could optimally increase with 33%8 , increase in enrolment. The absolute value when the Justdiggit project improves education possibilities, could be: 33 · 33, 500, 000 = 1, 105, 348, 000 = 1, 1 USD billion

(7)

33*33,500,000=1,105,348,000=1,1 billion USD increase in economic growth.

4.7.2

Field Research Results

The following chapter will present the field results on the subject education for local communities. In the appendix the complete table of respondents can be found.

By analysing this table, a table is created where the willingness-to-pay per education level increase (as found in the questionnaires is presented. Here, we will assume, that the WTP to pay for an increase in (multiple) educational level(s) is equal between different levels of education, so the WTP per level can be calculated: Table 13: WTP per education level increase Education level increase

WTP #1

WTP #2

WTP #3

WTP #4

Primary → Secondary Primary → University Primary → ADC Secondary ADC Secondary → University Secondary → University

1,000,000 200,000 500,000 2,000,000 2,000,000

10,000 100,000

500,000 500,000

1,000,000 25,000

Education level increase

Primary → Secondary Primary → University Primary → ADC Secondary Adc Secondary → University Secondary → University

WTP #5

100,000

1,500,000

WTP AVERAGE

LEVELS INCREASE

WTP PER LEVEL

522,000 206,250 500,000 1,750,000 2,000,000

1 3 2 1 2

522,000 68,750 250,000 1,750,000 1,000,000

Following from this table, the WTP per primary, secondary, advanced secondary and university education level will be created. The WTP per level will be given a weight on the number of respondents, where the WTP per level with a higher number of respondents receive a higher weight. Consequently an average WTP per increase of 1 education level, based on: the WTP per education level from the respondents and weights of respondents, will be created: 8

100-67 (currently enrolled in primary education)= 33%

52

Table 14: Calculation of final WTP Primary → Secondary # of Respondants 5 Primary → Secondary 5·522,000 Secondary → ADC Secondary NA ADC Secondary → University NA

Primary→ University 4 4·68,750 4·68,750 4·68,750

Primary → ADC Secondary # of Respondants 1 Primary → Secondary 1·250,000 Secondary → ADC Secondary 1·350,000 ADC Secondary → University NA

Secondary → University 1 NA 1·1,000,000 1·1,000,000

ADC Secondary → University # of Respondants 2 Primary → Secondary NA Secondary → ADC Secondary NA ADC Secondary → University 2·1,750,000

Secondary → University 1 NA 1·1,000,000 1·1,000,000

Total

Final WTP

# of Respondants Primary → Secondary

3,315,000 1, 625, 000 Secondary → ADC Secondary 6 4, 775, 000 ADC Secondary → University 7

313, 500 10 270,833 682,142

Table 15: Educational attainment population, Kilimanjaro region Education level

Number of people

Primary 555,282 Secondary 100,889 Advanced secondary 107,616 University 16,501 To identify the monetary value of the Justdiggit project for local communities in the Kilimajaro region, the willigness-to-pay of the different education levels will be multiplied by the number of people that could possibly benefit from this possibility of education.

Therefore this research has identified the educational attainment population in the different education levels. This data represents the educational attainment population in the different education levels in the Kilimjaro region (Moshi Municipality Education Department, 2008): To conclude, the quantification of the monetary value of the Justdiggit project for local communities can be identified, as follow:

53

WTP primary→secondary·number of people that attained primary school + WTP secondary → adc secondary·number of people that attained secondary school (8) + WTP adc secondary → university·number of people that attained adc secondary school = Possible monetary value Justdiggit project , following, (313, 500 · 555, 282)+(270.833 · 100.889) + (682.142 · 107.616) =274, 814, 000, 000 TSH =125, 175, 592 USD

(9)

Teachers - In the following chapter the field research results for the stakeholder teachers on the subject of education will be presented. These results are structured per effect, by level of education.

Quality of education - As stated before, quality of education depends on the availability and quality of learning materials and competent teachers and infrastructure (Sifuna, 2007). The focus in the interview is on the availability of exercise books, since the parents are responsible for buying them when their children attend a public school.

And whether a household income increase, will lead to higher investments in learning materials.

Pre-primary school - Respondents 1 and 2 teach at a private pre-primary school for disadvantaged children. The parents do not have to pay tuition. The school also buys the study and exercise books, but the parents can buy study books for the children to study at home. However, most parents do not. The children do get an exercise book to take home for homework. To conclude, this private school has no problem regarding the availability of exercise books. For this reason, the quality of education will not be affected.

Primary school - All primary school teachers interviewed indicate that not every parent can afford exercise books for their children. They handle the situation in three different ways.

The first solution involves the forming of students in groups in such a way that every group has at least one exercise book. Respondents 3 to 5 use this method for all their students, whereas respondents 6 and 7 combine this solution with the second solution, namely the buying of books by the teachers. For the upper levels the first solution is used and for the lower levels the second. The reason for the difference, is that it is difficult to work in groups for the lower levels, because they are just learning to write. Respondent 8

Exchange rate 01-08-2016; 1 USD = 2195,428 TSH

54

11 and 14 also use the second solution. In the case of respondent 11, the two primary schools had a joint teachers’ association, which bought the exercise books.

Respondent 15 told us about the third solution: sometimes the government steps in to buy the exercise books. He found it hard to help on the matter, as it is the parents’ responsibility to provide the exercise books.

The results above show that teachers in public primary schools are affected by the parents’ inability to provide exercise books to their children. Consequently, a change in the income of the parents, which the parents will spend on their children’s education, will have a real effect on the quality of education. For it will be easier for the teachers to teach the pupils. This in turn will also have an effect on the quality of education. Furthermore, the teachers no longer have to spend their own money to solve the issue at several schools.

Secondary school - Respondents 8 to 10 work at a secondary school in Msitu Wa Tembo. This school does not have a problem with exercise books, as all the parents buy them for their children. There are also orphans attending the school. That does not pose a problem either, because their guardians pay for their books. The orphans receive support from the government or donors if the guardians cannot afford to. There is even a German school that supports orphans trough the Lutheran church. Because there is no shortage of exercise books, the teachers will not be affected if the income of the parents rises.

University - While studying at the university, the students do not need to buy study books. These can be found in the library. Some students buy them out of interest though. The students do have to buy their own notebooks, but not all students can afford them. Respondent 12 declared that contrary to lower levels of education, the professors do not mind them not having notebooks. For this reason, the professors will not be affected if students are able to buy notebooks in the future because of Justdiggit.

More children will go to school Pre-Primary school - The nursery consists of 30 children. Respondent 1 indicated that it depends on the parents whether the kids go to pre-primary school. Some children stay at home because the parents are ignorant and do not see the possibilities of the children going to school. Usually the parents send their children if they went to school themselves. Respondent 1 and 2 also went to parents to convince them to send their children to school, but some parents have a hard time accepting it. Respondent 2 does think that parents will let their children go to school if they have more money to pay for it. Children that don’t go to school end up wandering the streets all day, working for their parents or working for earnings. The children they do end up teaching pose no problem.

The children are quiet, like going to school and they know how to handle them when a situation arises.

It is thus not expected that teachers of a private pre-primary school will be affected if more children go to school. The class is small and could therefore take more students before it becomes a problem.

Primary school - The government wants a maximum of 40 children in one class.

This goal has not been reached in many of the public primary schools. However, some

55

schools were closer to accomplishing this goal than others. It is important to note that class size is not always the same, as it depends on the level. Nearly all respondents indicated that some levels have many pupils, while other levels have fewer. Because of a shortage of teachers, it is therefore not uncommon to teach large classes.

Table 16: Number of teachers and students Name of school

Number of teachers

Number of pupils

Average teacherpupil ratio

Kahe East (Mashariki) primary school Msufini primary school Majengo primary school Kikweto primary school, Londoto Msitu wa Tembo primary school

4

200

01:50

5

302

0,083

6

277

01:46

13

423

01:33

14

531

01:38

The fourth column was added to be able to show the problems some schools have reaching the 40-student-per-teacher-requirement. As stated before, the class size depends on the school level. The column is just to give an indication. For the schools of respondents 14 and 15, there was no such data. However, respondent 15 indicated that he teaches between fifty and sixty students in one class. Likewise, respondent 14 taught up to ninety students at the same time at her old school in the rural area.

A number of primary school teachers also discussed the problems of teaching large classes. They all indicated that teaching large upper classes is not a problem, because the students are very quiet. On the other hand, the lower levels are quite noisy. As a consequence, teaching large lower level classes is hard. Respondent 5 explained that in his case, the students are noisy because of a lack of teaching materials. It might therefore be possible that an increase in the availability of exercise books will reduce his problem.

To conclude, if more children go to school, the primary school teachers will be affected in a small way. The classes are already quite large and the teachers experience problems teaching the lower levels because of it. If even more children attend school, the problem will worsen. However, it is not likely to assume that the effect on the teachers will be large.

It is not to be expected that the number of students will suddenly dramatically increase, but rather that slowly over time more children will attend school. By that rate, it will not be such a problem to teach a few more kids in every level. Especially considering that some new students might end up in a class that was not that full to begin with. For this reason, the earlier mentioned increase in the quality of education will not be offset by this change.

Secondary schools - According to respondent 8 and 9, the secondary school currently employs 30 teacher and 499 students are attending the school, thus a teacher-pupil ratio of 1:17. However, respondent 10 responded that he teaches 45 students in one class.

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This means that teachers in secondary school might also be affected in a small way if more children will go to school.

University - The number of students attending the university is decreasing. According to respondent 12, this is caused by two factors. Firstly, not all students can afford university. Half of the students that attend the university receive a loan by the government, which has to be paid back after you graduate. It used to be a grant, but was changed into a loan ten years ago, which is difficult to obtain. For the other half of the students to attend university, the parents have to pay for it. It also happens that parents only are able to pay the fee for one year. Secondly, the selection process is now centralised and the necessary qualifications to attend university has increased, which makes it harder to apply for university.

Respondent 13 thought another (third) factor, which is the increasing number of universities, leading to a lower university attainment per university. However, respondent 13 already has to teach classes of 400 students, which she finds hard to do. Only the general courses that all students have to take contain 200-400 students. The other courses generally have 100-150 students.

To conclude, if more people will attend university because of the Justdiggit project, the professors will be affected in a small way. The classes will be even bigger, which may cause some difficulty in teaching. However, it does not seem very likely that a few extra students will worsen the problem in a significant way.

4.8

Social Relations

4.8.1

Theoretical Results

4.8.2

Field Research Results

Woman Empowerment - The research on women empowerment showed that almost all women worked. However, not all of them were supported in this by their husbands. Most of the people interviewed who were not married yet believed that once they were married the wife would be able to work and would be supported. However, most of the educated women who were interviewed who wanted to stay working after marriage found it hard to find a husband who will support her in that. Another thing that came clear is that the generation gap was not so much an issue. The education level had more to do in what manner the husband and wife interacted with each other. From the educated people we talked to, all of them made decisions together as a couple. From the people in the villages only half of them made decisions together as a couple, the rest of the households were still run solely by the man. One thing everyone could agree on was the importance of education. By law both women and men were equal, but in practise this was not the case. In order for women to know their rights and for men to accept them this had to be tough from a young age to both of them. The most important factor holding back women empowerment was the perception of women about themselves. It therefore is important for women to be given more self-esteem, which could be done by more education.

Relations - The results on relations showed that all villages in Tanzania are governed by a government representative called the executive and a chosen chairman and council members. They form the local government and are chosen every five years.

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In the Kilimanjaro region there are three different tribes consisting of Chagga, Pale and Maasai. These tribes are bonded by the same nationality and the Swahili language.

Because of these aspects there are no conflicts between the different tribes in the region according to the results from this research.

The results of this research clearly show the presence of many conflicts about water in the Kilimanjaro region. Several villages have access to less water than needed for all the acres of land. Especially during the dry season the amount of conflicts increases.

Farmers lack education about how the water is supposed to be distributed and how they should use it efficiently. Furthermore, they don’t respect the water permits that should determine how much water they are allowed to use. The conflicts appear between farmers and between the TPC and farmers. Throughout the region there are several methods used to solve the conflicts. The involved parties often try to solve the conflict by having a constructive conversation in the village centre. When this is not enough to solve the conflict fines are the most used method to punish someone and solve the conflict. Other ways to improve the situation are education and a calendar that organizes who can grow which crop in which time of the year. Education is very important to make sure that farmers understand why water should be divided fairly, how they should do this and how they can use the water efficiently. The Justdiggit project could improve the situation of water conflicts. If water is better retained in the soil and access to water improves there will be less water conflicts. If the Justdiggit project succeeds in the long run to change the local climate, leading to more local rainfall throughout the year this could make the dry season less dry. This could lead to less water scarcity during the dry season and therefore less conflicts. Next to these positive effects of the Justdiggit project it is important to realize the need for education if more water will become available to a region. When the Justdiggit project creates more water availability the local farmers have to be educated on how to use that water and how to divide it equally in order to prevent conflicts about the newly achieved water. Lastly, the results of this research show who the important stakeholders with respect to the relations part of the research are.

Stakeholders for the local communities are the executive, chairman, council members and the community members that are allowed to vote. Stakeholders in the water conflicts are farmers, the TPC factory, Water Users Associations and local governments/police departments. The stakeholders NGO’s and environment, that were found in the literature study, appeared to be quite irrelevant stakeholders.

Migration - The results on migration confirmed that many people migrate to town because of more jobs and facilities. Some of the respondents do see opportunities in the rural area, especially when the facilities in the rural area will improve. If the Justdiggit project creates more fertile land this could attract people to the villages to farm this land.

However, there are only a few respondents that confirmed or thought that this backward migration will really happen. Therefore it can’t be concluded that the Justdiggit project will attract people from town to the rural area.

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5

Conclusion

This section presents the conclusions that can be drawn from the results of the afore mentioned results section.

5.1

Crop Yield

The results section verifies that the Justdiggit project is expected to lead to higher crop yield, which gives farmers in the Kilimanjaro region the opportunity to create higher revenues. Moreover, many farmers indicated that their revenues are highly depended on the amount of rainfall in a certain period. When the Justdiggit project is successfully implemented, rainfall will become more steady and spread out, meaning that more rainfall will be absorbed into the land which benefits the farmers in the Kilimanjaro area.

Moreover, more soil moisture enables the growth of different crops. In the surveys, farmers indicated that they were willing to switch to different types of crops if more water were available. This can improve their revenues as these new crops may yield them higher revenue per hectare.

In relation to floods, theoretical shows that floods have a major impact on loss of crops in the Kilimanjaro region, which is worth 19,106,729,269 TSH (=8702963 USD) per flood. Depending on the reduction of floods, the prevented costs on damaged crops are presented: • Scenario I (1% floods): 19,106,729 TSH (8,703 USD) • Scenario II (5% floods): 95,533,646 TSH (43,515 USD) • Scenario III (10% floods): 191,067,292 TSH (87,030 USD)

5.2

Grassland

With respect to grasslands, the results section shows that there is a market for grassbased animal nutrition products in the Kilimanjaro Region but that this market has not developed itself profoundly. The Justdiggit project cannot benefit the trade of these products yet. Therefore, it is important for Justdiggit to consider the role planted grasslands could play in countering overgrazing and desertification, and how the Justdiggit project can affect such grasslands. Furthermore, as the increase in soil moisture restores natural grasslands, smallholder farmers and livestock holders are also left better off as they need to purchase less additional grass products for their production processes.

Concerning animal nutrition, there is a considerable market for crop residues, with large potential monetary benefits for owners of livestock. If the dry season becomes shorter and less severe this would mean a higher production of crop residue and hence a lower price. Hence, farmers that provide crop residue potentially earn less, depending on whether the decrease in selling price outweighs the increased quantity sold.

5.3

Floods

The influence of Justdiggit’s efforts on the amount and severity of floods is not quantifiable in the short run. Results show that floods have different origins and different local impacts.

The overall impact of Justdiggit on the local floods is something that has to be analysed after implementing the project.

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5.4

Buildings

As shown in the literature section, floods have a major impact on houses in the Kilimanjaro region. The field research found a total effect of floods on houses are aroud 100717.87$ per year, which is lower than expected. This is because the value calculated in this paper includes only the damage, and not the disruption that the stakeholders face during and after a flood. If Justdiggit reduces the amount of floods in the Kilimanjaro area, the total damage costs prevented can be seen as ‘profit’ of the Justdiggit project.

Depending on the reduction of floods, the prevented costs on damaged houses are presented: Concerning damage to schools and hospitals in the Kilimanjaro Region, one can conclude from the literature research section that floods do not have a major impact. Field research conducted resulted in the total current asset value of both types of buildings, however, due to shortage of flood information, it is not validly possible to determine the monetary damage caused by floods to both types of buildings per year. Therefore, literature research is used in order to construct the reduction of damage costs due to Justdiggit in three scenarios: • Scenario I (1%): 20563652,00 TSH (9366.58$) to 44220776.35 TSH (20143.57$) • Scenario II (5%): 102818216.07 TSH (46832.88$) to 221118831.90 TSH (100717.87$) • Scenario III (10%): 205636410.19 TSH (93665.75$) to 442237663.80 TSH (201435.74$)

5.5

Infrastructure

Results show that a reduction in floods will decrease the costs of damage on infrastructure caused by floods. Depending on the reduction of floods, the prevented costs on damaged infrastructure are presented: • Scenario I (1%): 5,540,131 TSH (2,523 USD) • Scenario II (5%): 27,700,659 TSH (12,617 USD) • Scenario III (10%): 55,401,318 TSH (25,235 USD) The impact on people their travel lives is severe and occurs every year in the visited villages. The effect floods have on the railway track damage is negligible.

5.6

Health

Results indicate that rural regions in the Kilimanjaro area are especially vulnerable to floods and the resulting health impacts. Stakeholders identified cholera as the most prominent health arising from floods. The financial burden of the direct costs is carried by the World Health Organisation as they provide the local population with medicine and response teams which are free of charge. Indirect costs resulting from work days lost are not specified in monetary values in this paper. However, the questionnaires indicated that diseases do have a negative impact on people. Hence, people do experience lost labour days due to illness.

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5.7

Education

Results show that an increase in income leads to higher demand and investment in education. Assuming no income limitations, investment in education by households will increase 274,814,000,000 TSH (125,175,592 USD). This investment will cause an increase in the amount of children that go to school, an increase in the overall level of schooling and an increase in quality of education. Teachers will be marginally effected. Classes will be bigger, which may cause some difficulty in teaching.

5.8

Social Relations

Whereas it is challenging to summarise the findings of qualitative research, the beneath section underlines the most important factors of the social relations research.

Women Empowerment -Research concludes that the most important factor in aiding women empowerment is to increase their self-esteem through education, since the most important factor holding back women empowerment was the perception of women about themselves. This will make women aware of their rights and will learn men to accept women’s rights.

Moreover, The Justdiggit project could aid women empowerment in rural areas by giving them working opportunities on the improved land and educate them about their rights. This also means creating more awareness about the Justdiggit project in rural areas.

Relationships - The three tribes which form up the Kilimanjaro region are Chagga, Pale and Maasai. Since these tribes are bonded by the same nationality and the Swahili language. Because of these aspects there are no conflicts between the different tribes in the region according to the results from this research.

However, research did find conflicts regarding water access, especially for farm land and during the dry season since farmers don’t respect the water permits. Hence, if the Justdiggit project succeeds to change the local rainfall patterns in the long run, this would lead to resolving such issues.

Migration - The results on migration confirmed that many people migrate to town due to job availability and facilities. Some of the respondents do see opportunities in the rural area, especially when the facilities in the rural area will improve. If the Justdiggit project creates more fertile land this could attract people to the villages to farm this land.

However, there are only a few respondents that confirmed or thought that this backward migration will really happen. Therefore it can’t be concluded that the Justdiggit project will attract people from town to the rural area.

5.9

Economic Growth

The results section show that if investment in education increases with 274,814 million TSH (125,175,592 USD), the Tanzanian government and society as a whole benefits from this development through a 2,414,970 million TSH (1,100 million USD) increase in economic growth.

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6

Discussion

This section analyses the results of the afore mentioned results section. In order to improve the validity and completeness of the research, a few elements which limit the extent to which conclusions can be drawn ought to be further researched. Firstly, common limitations which prevail across all first- second- and third degree effects are discussed.

Secondly, effect-specific limitations and recommendations are considered, dividing these between second- and third degree effects.

Whilst conducting theoretical research, the most important limitation was the lack of availability of literature and online data of the Kilimanjaro Region. This made it difficult to collect figures beforehand meaning that certain sections such as the methodology section were inadequately prepared for field research. For example, sales prices and quantities sold on local markets are not properly recorded and there was no database for floods which occurred in the Kilimanjaro region.

Secondly, the lack of observations limits the extent to which conclusions may be drawn and extrapolated. Only few villages were visited, and their selection depended solely on the availability of local contacts in the village. For example, teachers from 10 different schools were interviewed, meaning that these observations may not be representative of all schools in the Kilimanjaro Region. Visiting a broader range of villages with a more equal spread across the region is therefore recommended. The lack of observations was also caused by a language barrier, which meant that the majority of the interviews had to be conducted through translators. This slowed down the procedure. Moreover the language barrier meant that the questionnaires had to be translated into Swahili, meaning that there may be misinterpretations and a loss of information while translating. Lastly, respondents often gave estimates since they did not know exact figures of for example the value of their house. This gave a large range of answers and made it difficult to identify and erase outliers.

For the second degree effects specific limitations arose. The crop yield section had difficulties to compare crops since local farmers use different measurements for their products.

Where some use kg, others use bags or buckets. For bananas, a branch full of bananas was the standard. Hence changing everything to the same standard made the results less precise. Moreover, farmers had difficulty estimating the extent to which an increase in water availability would increase their crop yield since this is very hypothetical. They gave answers such as ‘crop yield would increase a lot’. Therefore, further research should draw conclusions based on a comparison of areas where the Justdiggit project is implemented and one where it is not. The grassland section also had difficulties with the information from farmers for they do not distinguish between different types of crop residues sold on the market and hence the average price used reflects the actual price of maize crops and excludes information about crop residue feedings such as rice of beans. Moreover, many sales are made in bunches of pick-up loads of grass. Because of this, it was not possible to properly quantify results. The flood section’s main limitation is the availability of flood data. Only data of the Moshi Rural region is retrieved, which is extrapolated to the entire Kilimanjaro region. Moreover, lastly and perhaps most importantly, the total effect of Justdiggit on floods in uncertain. More research into the exact size of this effect ought to be conducted. Moreover the disruption costs of floods should be researched in more detail. For example the days that people cannot resume daily activities such as travel, work or schooling.

Also the third degree effects experienced limitations. For the subsection infrastruc-

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ture, only infrastructure focussed on transporting people and goods is taken into account.

Electricity, water and for example sewage is not taken into account which poses a possibility for future research. Moreover, the research was not able to determine the true amount of floods and kilometres of earth road affected by the floods for the entire Kilimanjaro Region but only focussed on paved roads. The main limitation of the buildings subsection is that the exact value of a building is different to quantify. For example: whereas the head of villages reported the average costs of mud and pole houses and brick houses, factors other than the material, such as the location or the soil on which is build, may also influence the price of a house. For education, the biggest limitation is that it is unknown by how much the Justdiggit project increases local communities’ income, which is spendable on education. It would be useful to research by how much the income will rise when crop yield increases and with what amount investment in education increases. Lastly, the social relations section had experienced difficulty when researching women empowerment, due to the presence of men during the interviews with women. This may have held women from answering honestly. For further research women should be interviewed by women and vice versa.

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A

Appendix A

For each project location Justdiggit prepares a range of possible interventions based on biome type (grassland, woodland, savannah), land-use, soil, vegetation cover etc. Final intervention selection takes place in close cooperation with local partners and local communities. The techniques presented below are examples of techniques used in our current projects. In case of any further questions please have a look at our website: www.

Justdiggit.org or email Justdiggit’s CTO Sander de Haas: sander@Justdiggit.org.

There are different techniques that can be used to retain water. One of these technique is the creation of bunds through digging. This technique is used in the Kuku project in the Kuku Tsavo West area in Kenya. The technical details on the size and distance of the bund are presented below.

(a) Technical details

A.1

(b) Overview bunds

of

created

(c) Bunds holding water during rainy season

Stone lines

Another technique used is the creation of stone lines. Stone lines will slow down runoff and retain it in the soil increasing soil moisture available for the intercrop. In for example the Kuku project the area is scattered with rocks and stones, which are used to construct stone lines just downward of the tree lines, along the contour lines.

Figure 11: Stone lines

A.2

Elements de banquettes

Another technique applied in Morocco is elements de banquettes. Elements de banquettes are a type of terraces made of earth bunds of variable height (50 cm on average) and length (5 m in our case) that are built along contours in staggered rows, which allows trees to capture runoff more effectively. The width of the earth bunds is generally 1-2 m and the spacing along the same line around 5 m. Elements de banquettes are suitable to harvest runoff water in arid and semi-arid regions and on steep slopes (20-40 68

(b) Elements de banquettes

(a) Technical details

(a) Controlled grazing around trees

(b) Establishment of an agro-forestry system

This technique is used for an area characterised by sparse trees and shrubs that is used mostly for grazing and rain fed cultivation of wheat and barley during the rainy season. The objective here is to increase the complexity and biodiversity of the system by facilitating the establishment of an agro-forestry system based on alley cropping of fruit and multipurpose trees combined with the cultivation of cereals and fodder/cover crops between the rows. Because water here is the main limiting factor, the rows of trees will be widely spaced at 20- 25 m with a distance of 5 m between trees on the line to avoid competition. In between the trees (or between the lines) herbs will be planted for increased water retention, biodiversity and income generation. Here planting pits will be prepared with compost (available from local manufacturers) to both nourish the soil and the saplings, biochar, mulching.

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Figure 14: Compost

A.3

Compost

Biochar is a product obtained from the pyrolysis (anaerobic combustion) of organic material, it is a very stable source of carbon and has multiple benefits such as stimulating soil microbial activity, buffering soil pH, improving soil structure, improving nutrient availability to plants and, very importantly, increasing soil water holding capacity Mulching is the process of covering the soil surface around the plants to create congenial conditions for the crop growth. Organic material (e.g. wood chips) can be used to cover the soil for the purpose of improving soil conditions, inhibiting weed growth and retaining moisture.

(a) Mulching

A.4

(b) Biochar

Spate irrigation system

Spate irrigation is an irrigation technique consisting of diverting seasonal stormwater from valleys, rivers, riverbeds and gullies by gravity onto farmland situated at a lower elevation than the flood water. The flood water is then diverted to the fields.

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(a) Spate irrigation applied in practice (b) The concept of spate irrigation

A.5

Vallerani or Yeomans ploughs

In agricultural areas we might decide to tread the land using Vallerani or Yeomans ploughs to increase water retention, infiltration and crops yields.

(b) Creating micro basins (a) The concept of the Vallerani plough

A.6

Training and capacity building of for example farmers

To guarantee a long-term sustainable solution it’s very important to involve the farmers and or local communities in the projects. Therefore training and capacity building is very important for project success. As an example we will provide training and capacity building of farmers in agro-ecological practices such as intercropping of fruit trees and vegetables and aromatic/medicinal plants, soil regeneration methods (composting, bois rameaux fragment´e, liquid biofertilizers, etc), agro-silvo-pastoral systems integrating free grazing of sheep and free-ranging of chicken between and under the fruit trees. Chicken fertilise the soil below the trees as their manure is rich in phosphorous which is an indispensable nutrient to stimulate tree flowering. Moreover, chicken reduce potential insect pests as they eat their larvae that hide in the soil and vegetation underneath the trees.

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A.7

Testing new innovations

Additionally we use our projects to test new innovative solutions like waterboxxes. Theseare buckets made of recycled paper that function as a plant incubator, sheltering both a newly planted sapling and the ground around it from the heat of the sun, while providing water for the plant. The lid collects water from rain and night time condensation, which is then stored in the bucket. The box acts as a shield for the water in the upper ground, and this water then spreads down and out instead of being drawn to the surface and evaporated.

Figure 18: Waterbox

A.8

Waterbox (right)

We also test for example water saving technologies in irrigated fruit tree plantations. AS for example WAR, System of Water for Agriculture Rejuvenation. This system allows water savings of 50 8

A waterbox has a vertical tunnel in the middle for two trees. A wick allows water from inside the box to trickle into the ground via capillary action. The box’s lid is covered by tiny papillae, which create a superhydrophobic surface due to the lotus effect. The lid serves to funnel even the smallest amount of water down siphons into the box’s central reservoir. The reservoir releases small amounts (around 50 ml per day) of water into the ground by a wick to water the tree and to encourage the tree to develop a root structure 8 Water is pumped to an overhead tank from which it flows through a PVC pipe and gets collected in five-litre moulded and ultra-violet resistant plastic jars placed next to each tree. These jars are kept embedded in two- and-a-half litre clay pots that remain buried in the soil (about 30 cm below soil surface).

The cap of the plastic bottle is fitted with a filter to strain impurities and a T-knob to regulate water flow. It remains above the ground so that the farmer can monitor it. Water drips into the clay pot through a hole at the bottom of plastic jar. From each pot two micro tubes half way up the pot, fitted with a sandbag, let water slowly ooze into the soil. After some time the pot begins to sweat and this is based on the suction capacity of the soil and the plant roots. Water supply to the pots is regulated through control levers so that all plants can be reached with gravity flow.

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Figure 19: SWAR irrigation

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