Environmental experts from all over the world gathered in CancĂşn, Mexico, over a period of 3 weeks to discuss measures against climate change at the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference in november 2010. For the first time, Fair Trade made its appearance at a conference that took place in parallel with the UNFCCC.
CancúN
Kings College Cambridge Published in accordance with EU policy.
content
1|2
13 | 14
CancĂşn 2010
Temperature increase cap goals
3|4
15 | 16
Too much dispute
The ice caps are melting
5|6
17 | 18
Unprecedented first steps
Building sea walls
7|8
19 | 20
193 under one roof
A better dialogue
9 | 10
21 | 22
Time to be bold
Fixing the past and the future
11| 12
Guide to CancĂşn
2010
King College Cambridge
A little a lot
Cancun 2010
november
29 WHat needs to be covered
what will be explained
Unprecedented first steps What was expected from the debates may have been ambitious and vague, with a general sense that perhaps what was needed to be concluded would be left in either un-resolved or falling short of new standards. Small steps vs. global accords Some agreement should be met for initial actions to be taken by both LEDC and MEDC regarding financial input. Fixing the past (and future) There have been several conclusions from previous debates in the past that have hurt the present, there must now be a system to protect the future. A better dialogue More so than with the discussions in Copenhagen, a general fuller agreement accross the board was met. But has this led to any siginificant advances? Sustainablility Software & Clean Energy The progress towards clean energy through the development of sustainably
King College Cambridge
software and technology is a huge step in the right direction. Green Fund Where will this money come from and which nations will have greater financial expactions sought of them. Glacial Melting Reports of major a increase in global temperature and most of all in the Arctic have been collected by field work.
2010
Building Sea Walls The threat of global warming will affect the levels of the sea. A serious long term issue that needs adressing now. US & Replublicans Guide to CancĂşn
With the US on the verge of Replublican control, a hold off on the Kyoto protocol regarding MEDC investment in climate control may be on hold until 2012. What Else Will Cancun be Doing? Looking ahead to further involvment in climate control in Cancun.
1 2
too much dispu
ute
The tangible advances were noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements set emissions mitigation targets for some 80 countries, including all the major economies. That means that the world’s largest emitters, among them China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Brazil, have now signed up for targets and actions to reduce emissions by 2020. The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep temperature increases below a global average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent than the one set out in Copenhagen, but this time, the participating nations formally accepted the goals; a year earlier, they merely “noted” them, without adopting the accord. Other provisions establish a “Green Climate Fund” to finance steps to limit and adapt to climate change, and designate the World Bank as interim trustee, over the objections of many developing countries. And new initiatives will protect tropical forests, and find ways to transfer clean energy technology to poorer countries. The Cancun Agreements on their own are clearly not sufficient to keep temperature increases below 2 degrees C, but they are a valuable step forward in the difficult process of constructing a sound foundation for meaningful, long-term global action. The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep temperature increases below a global average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent than the one set out in Copenhagen, but this time, the participating nations formally accepted the goals; a year earlier, they merely “noted” them, without adopting the accord.
Other provisions establish a “Green Climate Fund” to finance steps to limit and adapt to climate change, and designate the World Bank as interim trustee, over the objections of many developing countries. And new initiatives will protect tropical forests, and find ways to transfer clean energy technology to poorer countries.
3 4
Unprecedented first steps
After the modest results of the climate change talks in Copenhagen a little more than a year ago, expectations were low for the follow-up negotiations in Cancún last month. Gloom-and-doom predictions dominated.
ing world insists that rich countries
But the United States insists on
noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements
commit to financing their efforts to
binding commitments from other
set emissions mitigation targets for
cut emissions through programs such
countries that they cut emissions, and
some 80 countries, including all the
as protecting rainforests and sharing
allow transparent outside monitor-
major economies. That means that the
clean energy technology, and to help
ing of their emissions output. Some
world’s largest emitters, among them
them adapt to impacts such as rising
environmentalists say that the United
China, the United States, the European
sea levels and increased drought.
States is essentially “holding hostage”
The tangible advances were
Union, India, and Brazil, have now
Those are the essential sides of what
the forestry and technology language
signed up for targets and actions to
U.S. climate envoy Todd Stern calls
until it gets agreement from China
reduce emissions by 2020.
the “balanced package” he hopes will
and other developing countries on
emerge by Friday. Stern said Tuesday
transparency.
The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an of-
that a deal is in sight--but that the
ficial United Nations accord -- to keep
biggest stumbling block remains trans-
sues have long been the core stumbling
temperature increases below a global
parency in monitoring global carbon
blocks in climate negotiations. Many
average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F).
emissions.
countries--particularly China--view in-
Yes, that goal is no more stringent than
He also said a new announcement
The mitigation and transparency is-
dependent outside monitoring of their
the one set out in Copenhagen, but this
by the U.S. Overseas Private Invest-
industrial emissions as an infringe-
time, the participating nations formally
ment Corporation, an independent
ment of sovereignty. But the United
accepted the goals; a year earlier, they
government agency that supports
States and other developed nations say
merely “noted” them, without adopting
overseas investment, to provide $300
that a uniform and verifiable system of
the accord.
million in financing for new private
monitoring greenhouse gas emissions
equity investment funds for renewable
is a core underpinning of any effort to
Climate Fund” to finance steps to
energy projects in emerging markets,
meaningfully reduce global warming
limit and adapt to climate change,
could help advance prospects for
pollution.
and designate the World Bank as
agreement.
Other provisions establish a “Green
interim trustee, over the objections of
The idea is not to reach a legally
many developing countries. And new
binding global climate treaty, but to
initiatives will protect tropical forests,
come up with a document that some
and find ways to transfer clean energy
are calling the “Cancun Communique,”
technology to poorer countries.
which would pave the way for a global
The Cancun Agreements on their
agreement to eventually replace the
own are clearly not sufficient to keep
landmark Kyoto Protocol that expires
temperature increases below 2 degrees
in 2012.
C, but they are a valuable step forward
Negotiators here are homing in
in the difficult process of constructing
on detailed language for programs
a sound foundation for meaningful,
to reduce mass deforestation--which
long-term global action.
now contributes about 20 percent to
These are the questions at the heart
the world’s carbon emissions--and to
of the divide between the developed
create a technology transfer program,
world, led by the United States, and the
which would facilitate use of clean
developing world, led by China. The
and renewable technology in poor
United States demands that polluting
countries. Stern suggested that a
countries, including India and China,
breakthrough agreement on one of
commit to cutting emissions and allow-
those issues could be forthcoming as
ing outside verification. The develop-
soon as today.
Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, R-Wis Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass Contributor. Ned Helme Contributor. Joe Mendelson Featured in the National Journal, December 2010
But a funny thing happened on the way to that much-anticipated failure: During two intense weeks of discussions in the Mexican resort that wrapped up at 3 a.m. on Dec. 12, the world’s governments quietly achieved consensus on a set of substantive steps forward. Equally important, the participants showed encouraging signs of learning to navigate through the unproductive squabbling between developed and developing countries that derailed the Copenhagen talks.
“The issue where there is clearly insufficient development--in terms of what’s in the text, the ideas are perfectly clear--is transparency,” Stern said at a press briefing. “The issue is whether you do an honest-to-goodness process ... countries are going to submit reports and there’s going to be an expert panel to review them--that kind of thing doesn’t have to be long, it can be a page. But if you look at technology, financing, [forest protection], you have a lot more detail. You can look at those decisions and there’s a lot substantive there and the transparency is lagging behind,” he said. Indian Environment Minister Jairem Ramesh has offered a draft proposal on transparency in hopes of bridging the impasse. “The Ramesh proposal was quite constructive. There’s a lot of support in the conference for the kind of proposal the Indians have put down,” Stern said. “But not from everybody who matters, yet.” India and other developed countries have criticized the United States for not putting enough money into its end of the bargain. America has committed to mobilize $30 billion globally in climate aid in the next two years from rich countries to developing nations, and to start a flow of $100 billion a year by 2020. The United States has appropriated $1.8 billion in fiscal 2010 for the climate aid -- an amount Ramesh last week called “pathetic.” The new $300 million investment announcement could boost the U.S. total -- and OPIC estimates that that number could eventually grow to $1 billion.
5 6
193 nation under
Many of the delegates from 193 countries who gathered in Cancún, Mexico for the start of the annual two-week meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, are now looking at short-term strategies to help solve a long term problem.
The tangible advances were
Other provisions establish a “Green
noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements
Climate Fund” to finance steps to
set emissions mitigation targets for
limit and adapt to climate change,
some 80 countries, including all the
and designate the World Bank as
major economies. That means that the
interim trustee, over the objections of
world’s largest emitters, among them
many developing countries. And new
China, the United States, the European
initiatives will protect tropical forests,
Union, India, and Brazil, have now
and find ways to transfer clean energy
signed up for targets and actions to
technology to poorer countries.
reduce emissions by 2020. The participating countries also
The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an of-
agreed -- for the first time in an of-
ficial United Nations accord -- to keep
ficial United Nations accord -- to keep
temperature increases below a global
temperature increases below a global
average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F).
average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F).
Yes, that goal is no more stringent than
Yes, that goal is no more stringent than
the one set out in Copenhagen, but this
the one set out in Copenhagen, but this
time, the participating nations formally
time, the participating nations formally
accepted the goals; a year earlier, they
accepted the goals; a year earlier, they
merely “noted” them, without adopting
merely “noted” them, without adopting
the accord.
the accord. Other provisions establish a “Green Climate Fund” to finance steps to limit and adapt to climate change, and designate the World Bank as interim trustee, over the objections of
ns 1 roof many developing countries. And new
initiatives will protect tropical forests, and find ways to transfer clean energy technology to poorer countries.
The Cancun Agreements on their
own are clearly not sufficient to keep
temperature increases below 2 degrees C, but they are a valuable step forward in the difficult process of constructing a sound foundation for meaningful, long-term global action.
7 8
Time to Be Bold
The EU has forced its industry and energy sector into a cap-and-trade carbon scheme since 2005. The hope in Brussels has always been that the rest of the world would follow suit. After all, the Kyoto Protocol was specifically designed to achieve carbon reductions through market mechanisms. In practice, however, the EU is still virtually the only region in the world that caps emissions from its own industry.
Because of the global urgency, there
from destructive land use practices
earth’s temperature to its natural pre-
including in the rural, the urban and
industrial level, and strict time frames
peri-urban environment must end. In
must be imposed, so that overall global
order to achieve the required emission
emissions of greenhouse gases will
reductions, deforestation and the
begin to be reversed as of 2011. There
destruction of carbon sinks must end
must be a global target for greenhouse
immediately and developing nations
gas emission reductions of at least 30%
whose development will be affected
below 1990 levels by 2015, at least 50%
must be compensated.
below 1990 levels by 2020, at least
The latest round of climate negotiations finished on Saturday in CancĂşn has not brought a change in this status quo. It is still uncertain whether the world will agree to extend the Kyoto protocol beyond 2012, and just as uncertain what an international or global emission trading scheme will look like, if it will ever come about at all.
Greenhouse Gas emissions resulting
must be the political will to return
The right to development must be
75% below 1990 levels by 2030, at least
fulfilled so as to equitably meet devel-
85% below 1990 levels by 2040 and
opmental and environmental needs of
100% below 1990 emissions by 2050
developing countries and of present
(please see table 1 for detailed data
and future generations.
calculations), while adhering to the
The credible current emerging
precautionary principle, the differenti-
science has indicated that the global
ated responsibility principle *, and the
climate crisis is much more urgent
fair and just transition principle. The
than was conveyed in the 2007 IPCC
required reductions in emissions can-
Report that was based on data from the
not be achieved without an immedi-
years 2004 and 2005. As such current
ate end to the destruction of carbon
and emerging science and not the sci-
sinks. Under the UNFCCC, every state
ence from the 2007 IPCC Report must
signatory incurred the obligation to
be used in Cancun.
conserve carbon sinks; thus the de-
The emissions reduction required
struction of sinks, including deforesta-
to avoid dangerous climate change
tion and elimination of bogs must end
and the small timeframes available to
immediately.
achieve this are so extreme that the
The goal of COP 16 must be to
methods used to achieve the required
return temperatures to pre-industrial
reductions must be based on the
levels and return atmospheric CO2
maximum achievable targets within
back to 278ppm at the latest by 2050.
the shortest timeframes as described in
To succeed in being below the dangerous 1°C, member states of
diagram 1. The Global Humanitarian Forum
the United Nations must commit to
Climate Change Human Impact report
remove CO2 from the atmosphere.
that summarised data including that
It is estimated that to remove the
issued by WHO on the impacts esti-
necessary CO2 from the atmosphere,
mates that in 2009, 325 million people
member states of the United Nations
were seriously affected by climate
would have to committo removing over
change (based on negative health
1000GT CO2 by 2050. This must be
outcomes), and there were 303,000
done through socially equitable and
deaths as a result of climate change. It
environmentally safe and sound meth-
predicts that in 2030, 660 million peo-
ods and the levels required calculated
ple a year will be affected by climate
within an in depth research project.
change and that 471,500 people will
The Peoples Conference in Cochabamba, Bolivia Revised and updated August 2010 for COP16 in Cancun Joan Russow (PhD) Canada, Global Compliance Research Project (GlobalComplianceResearch@gmail.com) Richard Levicki (MSc) England International Sustainable Development Network (Richardlevicki@isdnet.co)
die from climate change. These factual
this Fund would be the redirecting of
estimates invoke very serious legal
subsidies from socially inequitable
obligations for immediate action based
and environmentally unsound non-
on the current science. Action that will
sustainable energy. The financial deal
knowingly cause deaths which number
must include the cancellation of the
over 10 million must be treated as
outstanding debt of developing states,
crimes. Climate change could kill
and the implementation of the minimal
250,000 children next year, and the
long-standing commitment of 0.7% of
figure could rise to more than 400,000
GDP being transferred to Overseas De-
by 2030, according to a report by Save
velopment (ODA). The 0.7% obligation
the Children, Feeling the Heat.
for development must not be diverted
Industrialized states and major
•
2016 - The five year plan for emission cuts will have reached a steady decline, headed possitivly for the 50% marker in 2020.
•
to climate change; there must be an
greenhouse gas producers must be
additional obligation of more than
prepared to enter into binding obliga-
7% of GDP specifically designated for
tions not only through targets and
addressing climate change prevention.
2050 - Will see a
time frames but also through funding
Any shortfall in funding should be
marker will be reached.
significant reduction in
At this stage further
emission and a balanc-
mechanisms. This fund could be
bolstered by increased ODA by na-
technological advances
ing point or emissions
named Fund for the Implementation
tions that inequitably have gained an
in clean energy will
and productivity is
of the UNFCCC, and it would fund
advantage from historical emissions or
accelerate progress to-
reached.
socially equitable and environmen-
reduction scenarios that are not in line
tally safe and sound energy renewable
with the principle of equity.
2020 - The 50%
wards the next market of 25% in 2030.
•
energy, transportation, agriculture and
The Commission on Sustainable
forestry. This fund would replace the
Development, in light of the failure
GEF as the main source of funding for
in negotiations of CSD15 must now
the UNFCCC.
produce an appropriate outcome on
This international fund would take
climate change and other issues, be
funds traditionally distributed not only
upgraded to a Council, which would
through the GEF but also through the
be able to convene at any time to deal
Bretton Woods institutions, such as the
with new or emerging environmental
International Monetary Fund and the
threats. The General Assembly Resolu-
World Bank, and additional bilateral
tion A/RES/47/191 states that the
funds, and now be channelled through
Commission on Sustainable Develop-
this global fund. This fund would be
ment (CSD) should ensure effective
indispensable for preventing climate
follow-up to Agenda 21, and other
change, and for achieving the objec-
UNCED obligations and commitments
tives of the UNFCCC. Additional funds
that Includes the UNFCCC.
must be derived from reallocation of global military expenses, including budgets and arms production; at the 1992 United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development, all member states of the United Nations agreed, in Chapter 33 of Agenda 21, to the reallocation of military expenses. Additionally budgetary sources for
9 10
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The tangible advances were noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements set emissions mitigation targets for
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China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Brazil, have now signed up for targets and actions to reduce emissions by 2020. The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep
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13 14
the ice caps are melting...still
Arctic sea ice extent averaged over
As in February, the Arctic Oscilla-
the month of March 2011 was 14.56
tion (AO) mainly stayed in its positive
million square kilometers (5.62 million
phase, which tends to bring lower-
square miles). This is the second-low-
than-average pressure over much of
est March extent on record, after 2006.
the Arctic, and higher-than-normal
In March, ice extent remained below
pressure in middle latitudes. For more
normal in both the Atlantic and Pacific
information on current AO conditions,
sectors of the Arctic, particularly in
visit the NOAA Climate Prediction
the Labrador Sea and the Gulf of St.
Center Web page.
Lawrence Ice extent showed little change
arctic sea ice extent (area of ocean with at least 15% sea ice)
Every year at the start of the melt season, scientists look at sea ice age,
through the month of March, as is typi-
using data from satellites and buoys.
cal this time of year. The ice reached
Older ice that has survived several
its winter maximum extent on March
summer melt seasons tends to be
7, and over the next few weeks, ice
thicker, while newer ice is thinner and
extent declined only slightly. New ice
more vulnerable to melt in summer.
was still growing in some areas, but it
Over the past several decades, the
was melting in others. Overall, the ice
spring ice cover has become increas-
changes in these regions canceled each
ingly dominated by younger and
other out.
generally thinner ice, because of strong
Archipelago into the Beaufort and
summer melting in recent years that
Chukchi Seas, in a region that used to
increased, though not above the previ-
has reduced the amount of ice surviv-
be dominated by old ice that usually
ously reported level of March 7. This
ing into winter.
survived the summer melt season. A
Late in the month, extent again
late increase is due mainly to increases
This year the older, thicker ice has
similar tongue of old ice appeared in
of extent in the Kara, Barents, and
increased somewhat over last year,
March 2010, which almost completely
Greenland Seas. The Greenland Sea in-
although it remains younger than the
melted away during the summer
crease is likely due primarily to ice that
1979 to 2000 average ice age. Data
of 2010. Whether the tongue of old
was exported from the Arctic Ocean to
through the third week of March shows
ice seen this spring melts away this
the Greenland Sea by winds and ocean
an increase in sea ice one to two years
summer will depend largely on ocean
currents, though some ice growth is
old, and older than two years old,
temperature and the weather patterns
also apparent. The increase in the Kara
compared to recent years. However,
that set up over the next six months.
and Barents Seas appears primarily
the amount of older ice remains much
due to ice growth resulting from unu-
lower than in the mid-1980s, and there
recently recalculated their entire series
sually cold weather in the region.
is still almost none of the oldest ice,
of ice age data based on a minimum
older than four years old, that used to
of 15% concentration. The old version
the Arctic Ocean were above average,
dominate much of the Arctic Ocean.
used a 40% minimum. The repro-
reaching 7 to 9 degrees Celsius (13 to
The distribution of old and young
cessed ice age data is therefore more
16 degrees Fahrenheit) above average
ice at the end of March 2011 also looks
consistent with other measures of sea
over the Chukchi Sea. Below-average
different than the standard compari-
ice, including NSIDC sea ice extent
temperatures were found over Green-
son period of 1981 to 2000. Winds and
data, which use a threshold of 15%.
land, the Norwegian Sea and part of
ocean currents this winter resulted in
Canada which does not bode well for
an unusual tongue of old ice extend-
breaking of temperature records in
the safety department.
ing from north of the Canadian Arctic
the American west this fall, as well as
Air temperatures over almost all of
James Maslanik and colleagues
Other changes of note include the
NSIDC scientists provide Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis, with partial support from NASA. NSIDC courtesy J. Maslanik and C. Fowler, University of Colorado
average monthly arctic sea ice extent March 1979 to 2011
process of global warming, and thus
whose only thought is to ‘battle’ and
save the planet from convulsing and
‘defeat’ their ‘competition’. Furious
dying of thirst in the times to come (to
loggers against angered environmen-
even begin to hold the climate steady
talists, as just one example, and those
and save those all important glaciers,
loggers will definately do the buffalo
and those ever so important rivers and
thing on those forests, and the whole
lakes which are very neccesary sources
planet will definately commit suicide
of fresh drinkingwater) this would re-
by dying of thirst by melting all those
quire reductions in CO2 emissions of at
damn glaciers. They will do it, because
least 60 per cent, according to current
they can’t do anything else. They are
scientific consensus. Now given how
free marketeers, and that system does
people shot the buffalo until no buffalo
not bring out the best in people, but
were left, and how they hack down the
rather the very worst.
old growth rainforests until not a spot
•
1990 - A long speriod of
•
2000 - Clean energy
•
When you hear about ‘ethnic cleans-
is left (in British Columbia they are
ing’ what you are actually seeing is
presently ruining the last habitat of
just ‘free marketeering’ stripped of
the spotted owl and the rare barking
its veneer of so called ‘cvilization’ (for
2010 - Information
salamander), well considering all this
example, the ‘civilized’ way of com-
production of industriel
is now a plan for the
from the field evidences
I would assume that they will just find
mitting acts of ethnic cleansing, would
technology had a large
future but is difficult
that an increase in
affect on the caps.
to implement due to
temperature is reach-
‘economic reasons’ to continue doing
be to destroy your rivals business
international dispute.
ing a critical annual
what they are doing, and just deal with
and thus capture his market share...
percentage increase.
that other problem of dying of thirst
this will of course leave him and all
later on when it becomes a more im-
his employees completely ruined, but
mediate and pressing concern...
then, to the victors go the spoils, and
record breaking numbers of tornadoes and wind storms earlier this year (the
But then this is one of the problems
as to what happens to them afterwards,
rising global temperatures have result-
of having people become socialized
well that’s their problem). Naturally
ed in a ten per cent increase in global
in a ‘free market economy’. This type
given what a worthless system we live
humidity levels over the last decade
of fiercely competitive, dog eat dog,
under, and what it does to destroy the
due to increases in evaporation- and
everyone for themselves, compete or
human soul, I think we can all look
water in the atmosphere is another
die Social Darwinism, while it is always
forward to watching those forests
potent greenhouse gas - so as the pro-
hyped as ‘bringing out the best in
burn to the ground, while the ice caps
cess continues it also accelerates - and
people’ (by throwing them into fierce
disappear and flood islands and coasts,
increased humidity causes more torna-
competition with each other) actually
while the rivers continue to disappear
does of increasing severity). Also very
brings out the worst in people, causes
and people then feud with each other
significant is the world wide retreat of
them fear for their survival, live in fear
over precious water (will they finally
mountain glaciers, which, over time,
of having the economic rug pulled out
have to shut down all barge traffic on
means the end of rivers, which are fed
from under them (at which time, they,
the Mississipi next year - this year the
by mountain glaciers, and just how
being the losers in the battle of the
barges are only half full to avoid scrap-
people plan to get by without these riv-
‘survival of the economic fittest’ can
ing bottom - and the Great Lakes have
ers is a good question...but apparently
then become homeless under a bridge)
dropped another foot - that one foot
they don’t spend a lot of time thinking
well this kind of thinking causes people
equals years of glacier build up, by the
about it, and even if they did, it would
to bust up into feuding special inter-
way, and the glaciers are not building
require drastic action to stop the
est groups,filled with anger and fury,
up, they are shrinking...)
15 16
The Cancun Agreements on their The tangible advances were
own are clearly not sufficient to keep
noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements
temperature increases below 2 degrees
set emissions mitigation targets for
C, but they are a valuable step forward
some 80 countries, including all the
in the difficult process of constructing
major economies. That means that the
time, the participating nations formally
a sound foundation for meaningful,
world’s largest emitters, among them
accepted the goals; a year earlier, they
long-term global action.
China, the United States, the European
merely “noted” them, without adopting
Union, India, and Brazil, have now
the accord.
signed up for targets and actions to reduce emissions by 2020.
Other provisions establish a “Green
The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep
Other provisions establish a “Green
Climate Fund” to finance steps to
temperature increases below a global
Climate Fund” to finance steps to
limit and adapt to climate change,
average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F).
limit and adapt to climate change,
agreed -- for the first time in an of-
and designate the World Bank as
Yes, that goal is no more stringent than
and designate the World Bank as
ficial United Nations accord -- to keep
interim trustee, over the objections of
the one set out in Copenhagen, but this
interim trustee, over the objections of
temperature increases below a global
many developing countries. And new
time, the participating nations formally
many developing countries. And new
average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F).
initiatives will protect tropical forests,
accepted the goals; a year earlier, they
initiatives will protect tropical forests,
Yes, that goal is no more stringent than
and find ways to transfer clean energy
merely “noted” them, without adopting
and find ways to transfer clean energy
the one set out in Copenhagen, but this
technology to poorer countries.
the accord.
technology to poorer countries.
The participating countries also
17 18
A better Dialogue
“Yes, there is hope because there are still many options open to us for moving forward. It’s up to the EU to continue leading the way. Alain Juppé is absolutely right in pointing out that there is hope for real progress at Cancún. The question is how far it will be possible to go at the Cancún summit, while understanding that fighting climate change has to be an ongoing process.”
Our expectations a year ago from the Copenhagen summit were too high. And when those expectations weren’t met, a deep cloud of scepticism was cast over the United Nations system’s ability to deliver results. Instead we have to take advantage of the progress made at Copenhagen, and at the same time avoid looking forward to Cancun as the end-point in the fight to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Legally binding agreements are obviously going to be needed, but we should also take into account the many other actions that could effectively support the fight against climate change as part of a global approach. These options include adopting a set of concrete decisions on all the pillars of the Bali Action Plan that preceded the Copenhagen Accord while also keeping the door open for a continuation of the Kyoto Protocol regime. Alain Juppé mentions finance and the reduction of emissions from deforestation (REDD+) as mechanisms that could be agreed upon at Cancun. Discussion of these is now well advanced, but we must not forget that agreement on those mechanisms will be linked to such other such topics as adaptation, mitigation, technology and measurement, verification and reporting. In other words, a balanced agreement is going to be essential.
“
There’s hope for Cancún, but EU leadership is more vital than ever Autumn 2010 Luis Alfonso De Alba
”
On mitigation, we need to think
Right now, pre-summit nego-
of ways to preserve the Kyoto regime
tiations are in a state of stagnation,
while recognising that certain condi-
with many countries waiting for the
tions still need to be spelled out. And
others to move first. Alain Juppé
for countries outside Kyoto, we should
is therefore right, in the sense that
be doing more work on developing ad-
Europe has the means to re-start real
hoc commitments as well as voluntary
negotiations on climate change. As
actions for developing countries.
a confidence building signal, Europe
As to adaptation, some ideas have
should raise its level of ambition so
already achieved common understand-
that others will follow suit. The Euro-
ing, and we can work further on that.
pean Union’s member governments
Technology is essential for developing
could also take national measures to
countries that need to adapt to climate
increase energy efficiency and emis-
change, so we should be thinking in
sions reductions. The truth is still
general terms about setting-up a new
that the EU has the means to unlock
technology mechanism.
the stalemate and be a catalytic force
All climate change actions, whether
for moving forward.
by developed or developing countries, will need to be monitored, reported and verified – while at the same time respecting national sovereignty – so as to promote confidence. And all the elements that could form such a package should be brought together to shape the foundations for further work. The worst case scenario for Cancun is that the summit will not reach any kind of agreement at all. But all concerned, without exception, would lose if we are not able lay out the foundations for a future in which development is sustainable. And we must be in no doubt that developing countries, especially the most vulnerable and least developed ones will suffer the most.
19 20
fixing the pa and fu
ast uture Usefully, the CancĂşn agreements recognise directly and explicitly two key principles.
The Kyoto Protocol, which es-
1. All countries must recognize
sentially expires at the end of 2012,
their historic emissions (read,
is fundamentally flawed, especially
the industrialized world).
in dividing the world into competing economic camps. At Cancun, it was encouraging to hear fewer people holding out for
2. All countries are
a commitment to another phase of
responsible for their future
the Kyoto Protocol. It was politically
emissions (think of those
impossible to spike the idea of extend-
with fast-growing emerging
ing the Kyoto agreement entirely,
economies).
but at least it was punted to the next gathering in Durban, South Africa, a year from now. Otherwise, the Cancun meeting could have collapsed amid acrimony and recriminations.
21 22
CancĂşn, more issues to cover
Tanzanian President visits the South Centre during Board meeting South Centre workshop on global economic problems and effects on the South CancĂşn climate conference: serious implications for developing countries