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Environmental experts from all over the world gathered in CancĂşn, Mexico, over a period of 3 weeks to discuss measures against climate change at the annual United Nations Climate Change Conference in november 2010. For the first time, Fair Trade made its appearance at a conference that took place in parallel with the UNFCCC.


CancúN


Kings College Cambridge Published in accordance with EU policy.


content

1|2

13 | 14

CancĂşn 2010

Temperature increase cap goals

3|4

15 | 16

Too much dispute

The ice caps are melting

5|6

17 | 18

Unprecedented first steps

Building sea walls

7|8

19 | 20

193 under one roof

A better dialogue

9 | 10

21 | 22

Time to be bold

Fixing the past and the future

11| 12

Guide to CancĂşn

2010

King College Cambridge

A little a lot


Cancun 2010

november

29 WHat needs to be covered


what will be explained

Unprecedented first steps What was expected from the debates may have been ambitious and vague, with a general sense that perhaps what was needed to be concluded would be left in either un-resolved or falling short of new standards. Small steps vs. global accords Some agreement should be met for initial actions to be taken by both LEDC and MEDC regarding financial input. Fixing the past (and future) There have been several conclusions from previous debates in the past that have hurt the present, there must now be a system to protect the future. A better dialogue More so than with the discussions in Copenhagen, a general fuller agreement accross the board was met. But has this led to any siginificant advances? Sustainablility Software & Clean Energy The progress towards clean energy through the development of sustainably

King College Cambridge

software and technology is a huge step in the right direction. Green Fund Where will this money come from and which nations will have greater financial expactions sought of them. Glacial Melting Reports of major a increase in global temperature and most of all in the Arctic have been collected by field work.

2010

Building Sea Walls The threat of global warming will affect the levels of the sea. A serious long term issue that needs adressing now. US & Replublicans Guide to CancĂşn

With the US on the verge of Replublican control, a hold off on the Kyoto protocol regarding MEDC investment in climate control may be on hold until 2012. What Else Will Cancun be Doing? Looking ahead to further involvment in climate control in Cancun.

1 2


too much dispu


ute

The tangible advances were noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements set emissions mitigation targets for some 80 countries, including all the major economies. That means that the world’s largest emitters, among them China, the United States, the European Union, India, and Brazil, have now signed up for targets and actions to reduce emissions by 2020. The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep temperature increases below a global average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent than the one set out in Copenhagen, but this time, the participating nations formally accepted the goals; a year earlier, they merely “noted” them, without adopting the accord. Other provisions establish a “Green Climate Fund” to finance steps to limit and adapt to climate change, and designate the World Bank as interim trustee, over the objections of many developing countries. And new initiatives will protect tropical forests, and find ways to transfer clean energy technology to poorer countries. The Cancun Agreements on their own are clearly not sufficient to keep temperature increases below 2 degrees C, but they are a valuable step forward in the difficult process of constructing a sound foundation for meaningful, long-term global action. The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep temperature increases below a global average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F). Yes, that goal is no more stringent than the one set out in Copenhagen, but this time, the participating nations formally accepted the goals; a year earlier, they merely “noted” them, without adopting the accord.

Other provisions establish a “Green Climate Fund” to finance steps to limit and adapt to climate change, and designate the World Bank as interim trustee, over the objections of many developing countries. And new initiatives will protect tropical forests, and find ways to transfer clean energy technology to poorer countries.

3 4


Unprecedented first steps

After the modest results of the climate change talks in Copenhagen a little more than a year ago, expectations were low for the follow-up negotiations in Cancún last month. Gloom-and-doom predictions dominated.

ing world insists that rich countries

But the United States insists on

noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements

commit to financing their efforts to

binding commitments from other

set emissions mitigation targets for

cut emissions through programs such

countries that they cut emissions, and

some 80 countries, including all the

as protecting rainforests and sharing

allow transparent outside monitor-

major economies. That means that the

clean energy technology, and to help

ing of their emissions output. Some

world’s largest emitters, among them

them adapt to impacts such as rising

environmentalists say that the United

China, the United States, the European

sea levels and increased drought.

States is essentially “holding hostage”

The tangible advances were

Union, India, and Brazil, have now

Those are the essential sides of what

the forestry and technology language

signed up for targets and actions to

U.S. climate envoy Todd Stern calls

until it gets agreement from China

reduce emissions by 2020.

the “balanced package” he hopes will

and other developing countries on

emerge by Friday. Stern said Tuesday

transparency.

The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an of-

that a deal is in sight--but that the

ficial United Nations accord -- to keep

biggest stumbling block remains trans-

sues have long been the core stumbling

temperature increases below a global

parency in monitoring global carbon

blocks in climate negotiations. Many

average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F).

emissions.

countries--particularly China--view in-

Yes, that goal is no more stringent than

He also said a new announcement

The mitigation and transparency is-

dependent outside monitoring of their

the one set out in Copenhagen, but this

by the U.S. Overseas Private Invest-

industrial emissions as an infringe-

time, the participating nations formally

ment Corporation, an independent

ment of sovereignty. But the United

accepted the goals; a year earlier, they

government agency that supports

States and other developed nations say

merely “noted” them, without adopting

overseas investment, to provide $300

that a uniform and verifiable system of

the accord.

million in financing for new private

monitoring greenhouse gas emissions

equity investment funds for renewable

is a core underpinning of any effort to

Climate Fund” to finance steps to

energy projects in emerging markets,

meaningfully reduce global warming

limit and adapt to climate change,

could help advance prospects for

pollution.

and designate the World Bank as

agreement.

Other provisions establish a “Green

interim trustee, over the objections of

The idea is not to reach a legally

many developing countries. And new

binding global climate treaty, but to

initiatives will protect tropical forests,

come up with a document that some

and find ways to transfer clean energy

are calling the “Cancun Communique,”

technology to poorer countries.

which would pave the way for a global

The Cancun Agreements on their

agreement to eventually replace the

own are clearly not sufficient to keep

landmark Kyoto Protocol that expires

temperature increases below 2 degrees

in 2012.

C, but they are a valuable step forward

Negotiators here are homing in

in the difficult process of constructing

on detailed language for programs

a sound foundation for meaningful,

to reduce mass deforestation--which

long-term global action.

now contributes about 20 percent to

These are the questions at the heart

the world’s carbon emissions--and to

of the divide between the developed

create a technology transfer program,

world, led by the United States, and the

which would facilitate use of clean

developing world, led by China. The

and renewable technology in poor

United States demands that polluting

countries. Stern suggested that a

countries, including India and China,

breakthrough agreement on one of

commit to cutting emissions and allow-

those issues could be forthcoming as

ing outside verification. The develop-

soon as today.


Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner, R-Wis Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass Contributor. Ned Helme Contributor. Joe Mendelson Featured in the National Journal, December 2010

But a funny thing happened on the way to that much-anticipated failure: During two intense weeks of discussions in the Mexican resort that wrapped up at 3 a.m. on Dec. 12, the world’s governments quietly achieved consensus on a set of substantive steps forward. Equally important, the participants showed encouraging signs of learning to navigate through the unproductive squabbling between developed and developing countries that derailed the Copenhagen talks.

“The issue where there is clearly insufficient development--in terms of what’s in the text, the ideas are perfectly clear--is transparency,” Stern said at a press briefing. “The issue is whether you do an honest-to-goodness process ... countries are going to submit reports and there’s going to be an expert panel to review them--that kind of thing doesn’t have to be long, it can be a page. But if you look at technology, financing, [forest protection], you have a lot more detail. You can look at those decisions and there’s a lot substantive there and the transparency is lagging behind,” he said. Indian Environment Minister Jairem Ramesh has offered a draft proposal on transparency in hopes of bridging the impasse. “The Ramesh proposal was quite constructive. There’s a lot of support in the conference for the kind of proposal the Indians have put down,” Stern said. “But not from everybody who matters, yet.” India and other developed countries have criticized the United States for not putting enough money into its end of the bargain. America has committed to mobilize $30 billion globally in climate aid in the next two years from rich countries to developing nations, and to start a flow of $100 billion a year by 2020. The United States has appropriated $1.8 billion in fiscal 2010 for the climate aid -- an amount Ramesh last week called “pathetic.” The new $300 million investment announcement could boost the U.S. total -- and OPIC estimates that that number could eventually grow to $1 billion.

5 6


193 nation under


Many of the delegates from 193 countries who gathered in Cancún, Mexico for the start of the annual two-week meeting of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, are now looking at short-term strategies to help solve a long term problem.

The tangible advances were

Other provisions establish a “Green

noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements

Climate Fund” to finance steps to

set emissions mitigation targets for

limit and adapt to climate change,

some 80 countries, including all the

and designate the World Bank as

major economies. That means that the

interim trustee, over the objections of

world’s largest emitters, among them

many developing countries. And new

China, the United States, the European

initiatives will protect tropical forests,

Union, India, and Brazil, have now

and find ways to transfer clean energy

signed up for targets and actions to

technology to poorer countries.

reduce emissions by 2020. The participating countries also

The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an of-

agreed -- for the first time in an of-

ficial United Nations accord -- to keep

ficial United Nations accord -- to keep

temperature increases below a global

temperature increases below a global

average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F).

average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F).

Yes, that goal is no more stringent than

Yes, that goal is no more stringent than

the one set out in Copenhagen, but this

the one set out in Copenhagen, but this

time, the participating nations formally

time, the participating nations formally

accepted the goals; a year earlier, they

accepted the goals; a year earlier, they

merely “noted” them, without adopting

merely “noted” them, without adopting

the accord.

the accord. Other provisions establish a “Green Climate Fund” to finance steps to limit and adapt to climate change, and designate the World Bank as interim trustee, over the objections of

ns 1 roof many developing countries. And new

initiatives will protect tropical forests, and find ways to transfer clean energy technology to poorer countries.

The Cancun Agreements on their

own are clearly not sufficient to keep

temperature increases below 2 degrees C, but they are a valuable step forward in the difficult process of constructing a sound foundation for meaningful, long-term global action.

7 8


Time to Be Bold

The EU has forced its industry and energy sector into a cap-and-trade carbon scheme since 2005. The hope in Brussels has always been that the rest of the world would follow suit. After all, the Kyoto Protocol was specifically designed to achieve carbon reductions through market mechanisms. In practice, however, the EU is still virtually the only region in the world that caps emissions from its own industry.

Because of the global urgency, there

from destructive land use practices

earth’s temperature to its natural pre-

including in the rural, the urban and

industrial level, and strict time frames

peri-urban environment must end. In

must be imposed, so that overall global

order to achieve the required emission

emissions of greenhouse gases will

reductions, deforestation and the

begin to be reversed as of 2011. There

destruction of carbon sinks must end

must be a global target for greenhouse

immediately and developing nations

gas emission reductions of at least 30%

whose development will be affected

below 1990 levels by 2015, at least 50%

must be compensated.

below 1990 levels by 2020, at least

The latest round of climate negotiations finished on Saturday in CancĂşn has not brought a change in this status quo. It is still uncertain whether the world will agree to extend the Kyoto protocol beyond 2012, and just as uncertain what an international or global emission trading scheme will look like, if it will ever come about at all.

Greenhouse Gas emissions resulting

must be the political will to return

The right to development must be

75% below 1990 levels by 2030, at least

fulfilled so as to equitably meet devel-

85% below 1990 levels by 2040 and

opmental and environmental needs of

100% below 1990 emissions by 2050

developing countries and of present

(please see table 1 for detailed data

and future generations.

calculations), while adhering to the

The credible current emerging

precautionary principle, the differenti-

science has indicated that the global

ated responsibility principle *, and the

climate crisis is much more urgent

fair and just transition principle. The

than was conveyed in the 2007 IPCC

required reductions in emissions can-

Report that was based on data from the

not be achieved without an immedi-

years 2004 and 2005. As such current

ate end to the destruction of carbon

and emerging science and not the sci-

sinks. Under the UNFCCC, every state

ence from the 2007 IPCC Report must

signatory incurred the obligation to

be used in Cancun.

conserve carbon sinks; thus the de-

The emissions reduction required

struction of sinks, including deforesta-

to avoid dangerous climate change

tion and elimination of bogs must end

and the small timeframes available to

immediately.

achieve this are so extreme that the

The goal of COP 16 must be to

methods used to achieve the required

return temperatures to pre-industrial

reductions must be based on the

levels and return atmospheric CO2

maximum achievable targets within

back to 278ppm at the latest by 2050.

the shortest timeframes as described in

To succeed in being below the dangerous 1°C, member states of

diagram 1. The Global Humanitarian Forum

the United Nations must commit to

Climate Change Human Impact report

remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

that summarised data including that

It is estimated that to remove the

issued by WHO on the impacts esti-

necessary CO2 from the atmosphere,

mates that in 2009, 325 million people

member states of the United Nations

were seriously affected by climate

would have to committo removing over

change (based on negative health

1000GT CO2 by 2050. This must be

outcomes), and there were 303,000

done through socially equitable and

deaths as a result of climate change. It

environmentally safe and sound meth-

predicts that in 2030, 660 million peo-

ods and the levels required calculated

ple a year will be affected by climate

within an in depth research project.

change and that 471,500 people will


The Peoples Conference in Cochabamba, Bolivia Revised and updated August 2010 for COP16 in Cancun Joan Russow (PhD) Canada, Global Compliance Research Project (GlobalComplianceResearch@gmail.com) Richard Levicki (MSc) England International Sustainable Development Network (Richardlevicki@isdnet.co)

die from climate change. These factual

this Fund would be the redirecting of

estimates invoke very serious legal

subsidies from socially inequitable

obligations for immediate action based

and environmentally unsound non-

on the current science. Action that will

sustainable energy. The financial deal

knowingly cause deaths which number

must include the cancellation of the

over 10 million must be treated as

outstanding debt of developing states,

crimes. Climate change could kill

and the implementation of the minimal

250,000 children next year, and the

long-standing commitment of 0.7% of

figure could rise to more than 400,000

GDP being transferred to Overseas De-

by 2030, according to a report by Save

velopment (ODA). The 0.7% obligation

the Children, Feeling the Heat.

for development must not be diverted

Industrialized states and major

2016 - The five year plan for emission cuts will have reached a steady decline, headed possitivly for the 50% marker in 2020.

to climate change; there must be an

greenhouse gas producers must be

additional obligation of more than

prepared to enter into binding obliga-

7% of GDP specifically designated for

tions not only through targets and

addressing climate change prevention.

2050 - Will see a

time frames but also through funding

Any shortfall in funding should be

marker will be reached.

significant reduction in

At this stage further

emission and a balanc-

mechanisms. This fund could be

bolstered by increased ODA by na-

technological advances

ing point or emissions

named Fund for the Implementation

tions that inequitably have gained an

in clean energy will

and productivity is

of the UNFCCC, and it would fund

advantage from historical emissions or

accelerate progress to-

reached.

socially equitable and environmen-

reduction scenarios that are not in line

tally safe and sound energy renewable

with the principle of equity.

2020 - The 50%

wards the next market of 25% in 2030.

energy, transportation, agriculture and

The Commission on Sustainable

forestry. This fund would replace the

Development, in light of the failure

GEF as the main source of funding for

in negotiations of CSD15 must now

the UNFCCC.

produce an appropriate outcome on

This international fund would take

climate change and other issues, be

funds traditionally distributed not only

upgraded to a Council, which would

through the GEF but also through the

be able to convene at any time to deal

Bretton Woods institutions, such as the

with new or emerging environmental

International Monetary Fund and the

threats. The General Assembly Resolu-

World Bank, and additional bilateral

tion A/RES/47/191 states that the

funds, and now be channelled through

Commission on Sustainable Develop-

this global fund. This fund would be

ment (CSD) should ensure effective

indispensable for preventing climate

follow-up to Agenda 21, and other

change, and for achieving the objec-

UNCED obligations and commitments

tives of the UNFCCC. Additional funds

that Includes the UNFCCC.

must be derived from reallocation of global military expenses, including budgets and arms production; at the 1992 United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development, all member states of the United Nations agreed, in Chapter 33 of Agenda 21, to the reallocation of military expenses. Additionally budgetary sources for

9 10


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The tangible advances were noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements set emissions mitigation targets for

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13 14


the ice caps are melting...still

Arctic sea ice extent averaged over

As in February, the Arctic Oscilla-

the month of March 2011 was 14.56

tion (AO) mainly stayed in its positive

million square kilometers (5.62 million

phase, which tends to bring lower-

square miles). This is the second-low-

than-average pressure over much of

est March extent on record, after 2006.

the Arctic, and higher-than-normal

In March, ice extent remained below

pressure in middle latitudes. For more

normal in both the Atlantic and Pacific

information on current AO conditions,

sectors of the Arctic, particularly in

visit the NOAA Climate Prediction

the Labrador Sea and the Gulf of St.

Center Web page.

Lawrence Ice extent showed little change

arctic sea ice extent (area of ocean with at least 15% sea ice)

Every year at the start of the melt season, scientists look at sea ice age,

through the month of March, as is typi-

using data from satellites and buoys.

cal this time of year. The ice reached

Older ice that has survived several

its winter maximum extent on March

summer melt seasons tends to be

7, and over the next few weeks, ice

thicker, while newer ice is thinner and

extent declined only slightly. New ice

more vulnerable to melt in summer.

was still growing in some areas, but it

Over the past several decades, the

was melting in others. Overall, the ice

spring ice cover has become increas-

changes in these regions canceled each

ingly dominated by younger and

other out.

generally thinner ice, because of strong

Archipelago into the Beaufort and

summer melting in recent years that

Chukchi Seas, in a region that used to

increased, though not above the previ-

has reduced the amount of ice surviv-

be dominated by old ice that usually

ously reported level of March 7. This

ing into winter.

survived the summer melt season. A

Late in the month, extent again

late increase is due mainly to increases

This year the older, thicker ice has

similar tongue of old ice appeared in

of extent in the Kara, Barents, and

increased somewhat over last year,

March 2010, which almost completely

Greenland Seas. The Greenland Sea in-

although it remains younger than the

melted away during the summer

crease is likely due primarily to ice that

1979 to 2000 average ice age. Data

of 2010. Whether the tongue of old

was exported from the Arctic Ocean to

through the third week of March shows

ice seen this spring melts away this

the Greenland Sea by winds and ocean

an increase in sea ice one to two years

summer will depend largely on ocean

currents, though some ice growth is

old, and older than two years old,

temperature and the weather patterns

also apparent. The increase in the Kara

compared to recent years. However,

that set up over the next six months.

and Barents Seas appears primarily

the amount of older ice remains much

due to ice growth resulting from unu-

lower than in the mid-1980s, and there

recently recalculated their entire series

sually cold weather in the region.

is still almost none of the oldest ice,

of ice age data based on a minimum

older than four years old, that used to

of 15% concentration. The old version

the Arctic Ocean were above average,

dominate much of the Arctic Ocean.

used a 40% minimum. The repro-

reaching 7 to 9 degrees Celsius (13 to

The distribution of old and young

cessed ice age data is therefore more

16 degrees Fahrenheit) above average

ice at the end of March 2011 also looks

consistent with other measures of sea

over the Chukchi Sea. Below-average

different than the standard compari-

ice, including NSIDC sea ice extent

temperatures were found over Green-

son period of 1981 to 2000. Winds and

data, which use a threshold of 15%.

land, the Norwegian Sea and part of

ocean currents this winter resulted in

Canada which does not bode well for

an unusual tongue of old ice extend-

breaking of temperature records in

the safety department.

ing from north of the Canadian Arctic

the American west this fall, as well as

Air temperatures over almost all of

James Maslanik and colleagues

Other changes of note include the


NSIDC scientists provide Arctic Sea Ice News & Analysis, with partial support from NASA. NSIDC courtesy J. Maslanik and C. Fowler, University of Colorado

average monthly arctic sea ice extent March 1979 to 2011

process of global warming, and thus

whose only thought is to ‘battle’ and

save the planet from convulsing and

‘defeat’ their ‘competition’. Furious

dying of thirst in the times to come (to

loggers against angered environmen-

even begin to hold the climate steady

talists, as just one example, and those

and save those all important glaciers,

loggers will definately do the buffalo

and those ever so important rivers and

thing on those forests, and the whole

lakes which are very neccesary sources

planet will definately commit suicide

of fresh drinkingwater) this would re-

by dying of thirst by melting all those

quire reductions in CO2 emissions of at

damn glaciers. They will do it, because

least 60 per cent, according to current

they can’t do anything else. They are

scientific consensus. Now given how

free marketeers, and that system does

people shot the buffalo until no buffalo

not bring out the best in people, but

were left, and how they hack down the

rather the very worst.

old growth rainforests until not a spot

1990 - A long speriod of

2000 - Clean energy

When you hear about ‘ethnic cleans-

is left (in British Columbia they are

ing’ what you are actually seeing is

presently ruining the last habitat of

just ‘free marketeering’ stripped of

the spotted owl and the rare barking

its veneer of so called ‘cvilization’ (for

2010 - Information

salamander), well considering all this

example, the ‘civilized’ way of com-

production of industriel

is now a plan for the

from the field evidences

I would assume that they will just find

mitting acts of ethnic cleansing, would

technology had a large

future but is difficult

that an increase in

affect on the caps.

to implement due to

temperature is reach-

‘economic reasons’ to continue doing

be to destroy your rivals business

international dispute.

ing a critical annual

what they are doing, and just deal with

and thus capture his market share...

percentage increase.

that other problem of dying of thirst

this will of course leave him and all

later on when it becomes a more im-

his employees completely ruined, but

mediate and pressing concern...

then, to the victors go the spoils, and

record breaking numbers of tornadoes and wind storms earlier this year (the

But then this is one of the problems

as to what happens to them afterwards,

rising global temperatures have result-

of having people become socialized

well that’s their problem). Naturally

ed in a ten per cent increase in global

in a ‘free market economy’. This type

given what a worthless system we live

humidity levels over the last decade

of fiercely competitive, dog eat dog,

under, and what it does to destroy the

due to increases in evaporation- and

everyone for themselves, compete or

human soul, I think we can all look

water in the atmosphere is another

die Social Darwinism, while it is always

forward to watching those forests

potent greenhouse gas - so as the pro-

hyped as ‘bringing out the best in

burn to the ground, while the ice caps

cess continues it also accelerates - and

people’ (by throwing them into fierce

disappear and flood islands and coasts,

increased humidity causes more torna-

competition with each other) actually

while the rivers continue to disappear

does of increasing severity). Also very

brings out the worst in people, causes

and people then feud with each other

significant is the world wide retreat of

them fear for their survival, live in fear

over precious water (will they finally

mountain glaciers, which, over time,

of having the economic rug pulled out

have to shut down all barge traffic on

means the end of rivers, which are fed

from under them (at which time, they,

the Mississipi next year - this year the

by mountain glaciers, and just how

being the losers in the battle of the

barges are only half full to avoid scrap-

people plan to get by without these riv-

‘survival of the economic fittest’ can

ing bottom - and the Great Lakes have

ers is a good question...but apparently

then become homeless under a bridge)

dropped another foot - that one foot

they don’t spend a lot of time thinking

well this kind of thinking causes people

equals years of glacier build up, by the

about it, and even if they did, it would

to bust up into feuding special inter-

way, and the glaciers are not building

require drastic action to stop the

est groups,filled with anger and fury,

up, they are shrinking...)

15 16


The Cancun Agreements on their The tangible advances were

own are clearly not sufficient to keep

noteworthy: The Cancun Agreements

temperature increases below 2 degrees

set emissions mitigation targets for

C, but they are a valuable step forward

some 80 countries, including all the

in the difficult process of constructing

major economies. That means that the

time, the participating nations formally

a sound foundation for meaningful,

world’s largest emitters, among them

accepted the goals; a year earlier, they

long-term global action.

China, the United States, the European

merely “noted” them, without adopting

Union, India, and Brazil, have now

the accord.

signed up for targets and actions to reduce emissions by 2020.

Other provisions establish a “Green

The participating countries also agreed -- for the first time in an official United Nations accord -- to keep

Other provisions establish a “Green

Climate Fund” to finance steps to

temperature increases below a global

Climate Fund” to finance steps to

limit and adapt to climate change,

average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F).

limit and adapt to climate change,

agreed -- for the first time in an of-

and designate the World Bank as

Yes, that goal is no more stringent than

and designate the World Bank as

ficial United Nations accord -- to keep

interim trustee, over the objections of

the one set out in Copenhagen, but this

interim trustee, over the objections of

temperature increases below a global

many developing countries. And new

time, the participating nations formally

many developing countries. And new

average of 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F).

initiatives will protect tropical forests,

accepted the goals; a year earlier, they

initiatives will protect tropical forests,

Yes, that goal is no more stringent than

and find ways to transfer clean energy

merely “noted” them, without adopting

and find ways to transfer clean energy

the one set out in Copenhagen, but this

technology to poorer countries.

the accord.

technology to poorer countries.

The participating countries also


17 18


A better Dialogue

“Yes, there is hope because there are still many options open to us for moving forward. It’s up to the EU to continue leading the way. Alain Juppé is absolutely right in pointing out that there is hope for real progress at Cancún. The question is how far it will be possible to go at the Cancún summit, while understanding that fighting climate change has to be an ongoing process.”

Our expectations a year ago from the Copenhagen summit were too high. And when those expectations weren’t met, a deep cloud of scepticism was cast over the United Nations system’s ability to deliver results. Instead we have to take advantage of the progress made at Copenhagen, and at the same time avoid looking forward to Cancun as the end-point in the fight to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Legally binding agreements are obviously going to be needed, but we should also take into account the many other actions that could effectively support the fight against climate change as part of a global approach. These options include adopting a set of concrete decisions on all the pillars of the Bali Action Plan that preceded the Copenhagen Accord while also keeping the door open for a continuation of the Kyoto Protocol regime. Alain Juppé mentions finance and the reduction of emissions from deforestation (REDD+) as mechanisms that could be agreed upon at Cancun. Discussion of these is now well advanced, but we must not forget that agreement on those mechanisms will be linked to such other such topics as adaptation, mitigation, technology and measurement, verification and reporting. In other words, a balanced agreement is going to be essential.


There’s hope for Cancún, but EU leadership is more vital than ever Autumn 2010 Luis Alfonso De Alba

On mitigation, we need to think

Right now, pre-summit nego-

of ways to preserve the Kyoto regime

tiations are in a state of stagnation,

while recognising that certain condi-

with many countries waiting for the

tions still need to be spelled out. And

others to move first. Alain Juppé

for countries outside Kyoto, we should

is therefore right, in the sense that

be doing more work on developing ad-

Europe has the means to re-start real

hoc commitments as well as voluntary

negotiations on climate change. As

actions for developing countries.

a confidence building signal, Europe

As to adaptation, some ideas have

should raise its level of ambition so

already achieved common understand-

that others will follow suit. The Euro-

ing, and we can work further on that.

pean Union’s member governments

Technology is essential for developing

could also take national measures to

countries that need to adapt to climate

increase energy efficiency and emis-

change, so we should be thinking in

sions reductions. The truth is still

general terms about setting-up a new

that the EU has the means to unlock

technology mechanism.

the stalemate and be a catalytic force

All climate change actions, whether

for moving forward.

by developed or developing countries, will need to be monitored, reported and verified – while at the same time respecting national sovereignty – so as to promote confidence. And all the elements that could form such a package should be brought together to shape the foundations for further work. The worst case scenario for Cancun is that the summit will not reach any kind of agreement at all. But all concerned, without exception, would lose if we are not able lay out the foundations for a future in which development is sustainable. And we must be in no doubt that developing countries, especially the most vulnerable and least developed ones will suffer the most.

19 20


fixing the pa and fu


ast uture Usefully, the CancĂşn agreements recognise directly and explicitly two key principles.

The Kyoto Protocol, which es-

1. All countries must recognize

sentially expires at the end of 2012,

their historic emissions (read,

is fundamentally flawed, especially

the industrialized world).

in dividing the world into competing economic camps. At Cancun, it was encouraging to hear fewer people holding out for

2. All countries are

a commitment to another phase of

responsible for their future

the Kyoto Protocol. It was politically

emissions (think of those

impossible to spike the idea of extend-

with fast-growing emerging

ing the Kyoto agreement entirely,

economies).

but at least it was punted to the next gathering in Durban, South Africa, a year from now. Otherwise, the Cancun meeting could have collapsed amid acrimony and recriminations.

21 22


CancĂşn, more issues to cover


Tanzanian President visits the South Centre during Board meeting South Centre workshop on global economic problems and effects on the South CancĂşn climate conference: serious implications for developing countries



Cancun Publication black