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Transportation Engineering

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Transportation Engineering Theory, Practice, and Modeling Second Edition Dušan Teodorovi c Professor, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, Serbia Professor Emeritus, Charles E. Via Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, United States

Milan Jani c Research Professor, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia

Butterworth-Heinemann is an imprint of Elsevier The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom 50 Hampshire Street, 5th Floor, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Details on how to seek permission, further information about the Publisher’s permissions policies and our arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency, can be found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions.

This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).

Notices Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.

Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.

To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data A catalog record for this book is available from the Library of Congress British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 978-0-323-90813-9 For information on all Butterworth-Heinemann publications visit our website at https://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals

Publisher: Matthew Deans Acquisitions Editor: Gwen Jones Editorial Project Manager: Emily Thomson Production Project Manager: Prem Kumar Kaliamoorthi Cover Designer: Christian Bilbow Typeset by STRAIVE, India

To my wife, children, and grandchildren—Dusˇan Teodorovi c To my son and wife (in memoriam)—Milan Jani c

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Contents About the authors ............................................................................................................................... xix Foreword to the first edition............................................................................................................... xxi Foreword to the second edition........................................................................................................ xxiii Preface to the first edition ................................................................................................................. xxv Preface to the second edition .......................................................................................................... xxvii

CHAPTER 1 Introduction ................................................................................................ 1 CHAPTER 2 Transportation Systems ............................................................................ 5 2.1 Background................................................................................................................. 5 2.2 History of Transportation ........................................................................................... 6 2.3 Transportation Sector and Transportation Modes ................................................... 15 2.3.1 Components of Transportation Modes............................................................ 16 2.3.2 Structure of Transportation Modes ................................................................. 17 2.3.3 Technologies of Transport Modes .................................................................. 17 2.3.4 Relationships Between Transport Modes ....................................................... 20 2.4 Characteristics of Transport Modes and Their Systems.......................................... 22 2.4.1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 22 2.4.2 Urban and Sub/Urban Road and Rail-Based Transit Systems for Passengers .................................................................................................. 22 2.4.3 Urban and Sub/Urban Transport Systems for Freight Shipments.................. 29 2.4.4 Interurban Road Transport Systems................................................................ 30 2.4.5 Interurban Rail Transport Systems ................................................................. 34 2.4.6 Inland Waterways and Sea Shipping Systems for Cargo Shipments............. 44 2.4.7 Air Transport System ...................................................................................... 51 2.5 Transportation Systems Topics: Planning, Control, Congestion, Safety, and Environment Protection............................................................................................ 56 2.6 Problems ................................................................................................................... 59 References ................................................................................................................ 59 Websites.................................................................................................................... 62

CHAPTER 3 Traffic and Transportation Analysis Techniques ................................ 63 3.1 Object Motion and Time-Space Diagrams .............................................................. 63 3.2 Transportation Networks Basics .............................................................................. 69 3.3 Optimal Paths in Transportation Networks ............................................................. 72 3.3.1 Finding Shortest Path in a Transportation Network....................................... 72 3.3.2 Dijkstra’s Algorithm........................................................................................ 73 3.3.3 Shortest Paths Between All Pairs of Nodes.................................................... 77

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3.4 Mathematical Programming Applications in Traffic and Transportation............... 81 3.4.1 Linear Programming in Traffic and Transportation ....................................... 82 3.4.2 Integer Programming....................................................................................... 88 3.4.3 Dimensionality of the Traffic and Transportation Engineering Problems .......................................................................................................... 91 3.4.4 Complexity of Algorithms .............................................................................. 92 3.5 Probability Theory and Traffic Phenomena ............................................................ 93 3.5.1 Probability Theory Basics ............................................................................... 94 3.5.2 Random Variables and Probability Distributions ........................................... 96 3.6 Queueing in Transportation Systems ..................................................................... 106 3.6.1 Elements of Queueing Systems..................................................................... 107 3.6.2 D/D/1 Queueing............................................................................................. 109 3.6.3 Little’s Law ................................................................................................... 109 3.6.4 M/M/1 Queueing............................................................................................ 114 3.6.5 M/M/s Queueing ............................................................................................ 115 3.6.6 Queueing Theory and Investments in Transportation Facilities Expansion ...................................................................................................... 119 3.7 Simulation............................................................................................................... 121 3.7.1 The Monte Carlo Simulation Method........................................................... 121 3.8 MultiAttribute Decision Making Methods............................................................. 124 3.8.1 Attribute Weights .......................................................................................... 125 3.8.2 Minimax Method ........................................................................................... 126 3.8.3 Maximax Method .......................................................................................... 127 3.8.4 Simple Additive Weighting Method............................................................. 127 3.8.5 TOPSIS .......................................................................................................... 128 3.9 Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)....................................................................... 130 3.9.1 Ratios ............................................................................................................. 130 3.9.2 DEA Basics ................................................................................................... 132 3.10 Computational Intelligence Techniques................................................................. 135 3.10.1 The Concept of Fuzzy Sets ......................................................................... 136 3.10.2 The Fuzzy Sets Basics................................................................................. 138 3.10.3 Basic Elements of Fuzzy Systems .............................................................. 140 3.10.4 Artificial Neural Networks.......................................................................... 149 3.11 Problems ................................................................................................................. 155 References .............................................................................................................. 160

CHAPTER 4 Traffic Flow Theory ............................................................................... 163 4.1 Traffic Flow Phenomenon...................................................................................... 163 4.2 Measurements of the Basic Flow Variables .......................................................... 164 4.3 Vehicle Headways and Flow.................................................................................. 165

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4.4 Poisson Distribution of the Number of Arrivals and the Exponential Distribution of Headways....................................................................................... 166 4.5 Normal Distribution and Pearson Type III Distribution of Headway................... 168 4.5.1 Speeds ............................................................................................................ 169 4.6 Speed-Density Relationship ................................................................................... 171 4.7 Flow-Density Relationship..................................................................................... 173 4.8 Speed-Flow Relationship ....................................................................................... 175 4.9 Fundamental Diagram of Traffic Flow.................................................................. 182 4.10 Shock Waves .......................................................................................................... 182 4.11 Micro-Simulation Traffic Models .......................................................................... 186 4.12 Car Following Models............................................................................................ 187 4.12.1 The Car-Following Model Based on Fuzzy Inference Rules..................... 188 4.13 Network Flow Diagram.......................................................................................... 189 4.13.1 Link-Based Measurements .......................................................................... 190 4.13.2 Generalized Traffic Flow Variables............................................................ 190 4.13.3 Trajectory-Based Measurements................................................................. 192 4.14 Problems ................................................................................................................. 193 References .............................................................................................................. 195

CHAPTER 5 Capacity and Level of Service ............................................................. 197 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 197 5.2 Highway Capacity and Level of Service ............................................................... 198 5.2.1 Highway Capacity and Traffic Demand Variations ..................................... 199 5.2.2 Freeways ........................................................................................................ 201 5.2.3 Methodology for the Capacity Analysis, LOS, and the Lane Requirements ................................................................................................. 205 5.2.4 The Number of Lanes Required to Deliver the Target LOS ....................... 209 5.3 “Ultimate” and “Practical” Capacity of Bus Stations ........................................... 212 5.4 Rail Inter-Urban Transport Systems ...................................................................... 215 5.4.1 General........................................................................................................... 215 5.5 Inland Waterway Freight/Cargo Transportation System....................................... 236 5.5.1 General........................................................................................................... 236 5.5.2 Classification ................................................................................................. 237 5.5.3 Infrastructure Network .................................................................................. 239 5.5.4 Transport Service Network ........................................................................... 250 5.6 Maritime Freight/Cargo Transport System............................................................ 253 5.6.1 General........................................................................................................... 253 5.6.2 Ports ............................................................................................................... 253 5.6.3 Shipping Lines............................................................................................... 263 5.7 Air Transport System ............................................................................................. 269 5.7.1 General........................................................................................................... 269

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5.7.2 Airports .......................................................................................................... 269 5.7.3 Air Traffic Control ........................................................................................ 282 5.8 Problems ................................................................................................................. 287 References .............................................................................................................. 290 Websites.................................................................................................................. 292

CHAPTER 6 Traffic Control ........................................................................................ 293 6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 293 6.2 Traffic Control at Signalized Intersections............................................................ 294 6.2.1 Fixed-Time Control at the Isolated Intersection......................................... 296 6.2.2 Vehicle Delays at Signalized Intersections................................................. 300 6.2.3 The Determination of Timing for Fixed-Time Signals .............................. 307 6.2.4 Signal Phasing Selection ............................................................................. 307 6.2.5 Volume Adjustment (Calculation of Equivalent Straight-Through Passenger Cars) ........................................................................................... 309 6.2.6 Critical Lane Volumes Selection ................................................................ 310 6.2.7 Change Interval Calculation........................................................................ 311 6.2.8 Cycle Length Calculation............................................................................ 312 6.2.9 Green Time Allocation................................................................................ 314 6.2.10 Pedestrian Crossing Time Check ................................................................ 315 6.2.11 Actuated Signal Control .............................................................................. 316 6.3 Alternative Intersections......................................................................................... 317 6.3.1 Displaced Left-Turn (DLT) Intersections..................................................... 319 6.3.2 Median U-Turn (MUT) Intersection ............................................................. 323 6.3.3 Restricted Crossing U-Turn (RCUT) Intersections ...................................... 324 6.3.4 Quadrant Roadway Intersection .................................................................... 326 6.3.5 Roundabout.................................................................................................... 327 6.3.6 Diverging Diamond Interchange (DDI) ........................................................ 331 6.4 Traffic Control for Arterial Streets ........................................................................ 335 6.4.1 Adaptive Control Strategies .......................................................................... 337 6.5 Area-Wide Traffic Control Systems ...................................................................... 338 6.6 Traffic Control Signal Needs Studies .................................................................... 341 6.6.1 Warrant 1 ....................................................................................................... 342 6.6.2 Warrant 2 ....................................................................................................... 342 6.6.3 Warrant 3 ....................................................................................................... 342 6.6.4 Warrant 4 ....................................................................................................... 342 6.6.5 Warrant 5 ....................................................................................................... 342 6.6.6 Warrant 6 ....................................................................................................... 342 6.6.7 Warrant 7 ....................................................................................................... 342 6.6.8 Warrant 8 ....................................................................................................... 343 6.6.9 Warrant 9 ....................................................................................................... 343

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6.7 Intelligent Transportation Systems ........................................................................ 343 6.7.1 ITS Architecture ............................................................................................ 344 6.7.2 ITS User Services.......................................................................................... 345 6.7.3 Autonomous Vehicles ................................................................................... 347 6.7.4 Autonomous Intersection Management ........................................................ 348 6.8 Freeway Traffic Control......................................................................................... 350 6.8.1 Freeway Traffic Control Measures ............................................................... 350 6.8.2 Ramp Metering.............................................................................................. 351 6.8.3 Driver Information and Guidance Systems .................................................. 354 6.9 Transportation Demand Management.................................................................... 355 6.9.1 Ride-Sharing (Carpooling) ............................................................................ 356 6.9.2 Remote Parking and Park and Ride.............................................................. 357 6.9.3 Improved Walkability.................................................................................... 357 6.9.4 Telework ........................................................................................................ 357 6.9.5 Congestion Pricing ........................................................................................ 357 6.9.6 Congestion Charges....................................................................................... 359 6.10 HOV Facilities........................................................................................................ 362 6.11 Highway Space Inventory Control System............................................................ 363 6.12 Auctions.................................................................................................................. 364 6.13 Rail Traffic Control................................................................................................ 364 6.13.1 Background.................................................................................................. 364 6.13.2 Infrastructure ............................................................................................... 365 6.13.3 Supportive Facilities and Equipment .......................................................... 365 6.13.4 The Workload and Capacity of Train Dispatcher(s) .................................. 377 6.14 Air Traffic Control ................................................................................................. 381 6.14.1 Background.................................................................................................. 381 6.14.2 Infrastructure ............................................................................................... 381 6.14.3 Supportive Facilities and Equipment .......................................................... 387 6.14.4 The ATC Separation Rules and Procedures ............................................... 389 6.14.5 The ATC Staff—Controller and Pilots ....................................................... 390 6.14.6 Automation .................................................................................................. 392 6.14.7 The Workload and Capacity of ATC Controller(s).................................... 395 6.15 Problems ................................................................................................................. 398 References .............................................................................................................. 399 Websites.................................................................................................................. 403

CHAPTER 7 Public Transportation Systems ............................................................ 405 7.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 405 7.2 Number of Transported Passengers Versus Number of Served Vehicles............. 406 7.3 Urban Public Transit .............................................................................................. 408 7.3.1 Road-Based Urban Transit Systems ............................................................. 411

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7.3.2 Rail-Based Urban Transit Systems ............................................................... 413 7.3.3 Complementarity of the Systems .................................................................. 416 7.4 Infrastructure of Urban Transit Systems................................................................ 416 7.4.1 Stops/Stations in Urban Transit Systems...................................................... 417 7.4.2 Urban Transit Systems Links and Indicators of Network Size.................... 419 7.5 Public Transportation Availability......................................................................... 423 7.6 Passenger Flows in Public Transportation............................................................. 424 7.7 Passenger Flows Along a Transit Line .................................................................. 426 7.8 Service Frequency and Headways ......................................................................... 428 7.8.1 The Maximum Service Frequency................................................................ 429 7.8.2 Passenger Waiting Time ............................................................................... 430 7.8.3 Headway Determination by “Square Root Formula” ................................... 430 7.8.4 Headway Determination by Maximum Load Method.................................. 433 7.9 Timetable ................................................................................................................ 433 7.10 Transit Line Capacity............................................................................................. 435 7.10.1 Transit Line Capacity Utilization ............................................................... 437 7.11 The Performances of the Urban Transit Network ................................................. 440 7.12 Public Transit Network Types ............................................................................... 446 7.13 The Public Transit Network Design ...................................................................... 449 7.13.1 Simple Greedy Algorithm for Public Transit Network Design ................. 452 7.14 Service Frequencies Determination in Transit Network ....................................... 456 7.15 Vehicle Scheduling in Public Transit .................................................................... 460 7.16 Crew Scheduling in Public Transit ........................................................................ 462 7.17 Disruption Management in Public Transit............................................................. 463 7.18 Public Transit Planning Process............................................................................. 466 7.19 Shared Mobility ...................................................................................................... 466 7.19.1 Demand-Responsive Transportation Systems............................................. 468 7.19.2 Type of Routing and Scheduling in DRT................................................... 468 7.19.3 Dial-a-Ride .................................................................................................. 469 7.19.4 Bicycle Transportation ................................................................................ 473 7.19.5 Transportation Policy That Promotes Bicycle Transportation ................... 473 7.19.6 Infrastructure for Bicycling......................................................................... 475 7.19.7 Bicycle-Sharing Systems............................................................................. 479 7.19.8 Imbalance Between Bike Demand and Bike Supply ................................. 480 7.20 Interurban Road Transport Systems....................................................................... 482 7.20.1 Introduction ................................................................................................. 482 7.20.2 Service Networks in an Interurban Road Transportation........................... 482 7.21 Air Transportation .................................................................................................. 486 7.21.1 Air Transportation Demand ........................................................................ 487 7.21.2 Airline Supply and Airline Capacity .......................................................... 488 7.22 Air Transportation Networks ................................................................................. 493

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7.23 Flight Frequencies .................................................................................................. 498 7.23.1 Flight Frequency Satisfying Demand ......................................................... 500 7.23.2 Flight Frequency Gaining Market Share .................................................... 500 7.23.3 Flight Frequency Minimizing the Total Route Cost .................................. 502 7.24 Airline Transport Work and Productivity.............................................................. 504 7.25 Fleet Size ................................................................................................................ 507 7.26 Level of Service ..................................................................................................... 508 7.27 Airline Scheduling.................................................................................................. 510 7.28 Airline Schedule Planning Process ........................................................................ 512 7.29 Airline Revenue Management................................................................................ 515 7.30 Problems ................................................................................................................. 517 References .............................................................................................................. 519

CHAPTER 8 Transportation Demand Analysis ......................................................... 523 8.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 523 8.2 Transportation Demand and Transportation Supply.............................................. 524 8.3 Transportation Demand Modeling ......................................................................... 525 8.4 Transportation Demand Forecasting Techniques .................................................. 527 8.4.1 Time Series Models....................................................................................... 529 8.4.2 Trend Projection ............................................................................................ 532 8.5 Four-Step Planning Procedure ............................................................................... 537 8.5.1 Trip Generation ............................................................................................. 539 8.5.2 Trip Distribution............................................................................................ 541 8.5.3 Gravity Model ............................................................................................... 542 8.5.4 Modal Split .................................................................................................... 546 8.5.5 Route Choice and Traffic Assignment ......................................................... 549 8.6 User Equilibrium and System Optimum................................................................ 551 8.6.1 Formulation of the User Equilibrium Problem............................................. 555 8.7 Heuristic Algorithms for Finding User-Equilibrium Flow Pattern ....................... 562 8.7.1 Capacity Restraint Algorithm ....................................................................... 562 8.7.2 FHWA Algorithm.......................................................................................... 564 8.7.3 Incremental Assignment Algorithm.............................................................. 565 8.8 System Optimal Route Choice............................................................................... 568 8.9 Price of Anarchy..................................................................................................... 570 8.10 Braess Paradox and Transportation Capacity Expansions .................................... 571 8.11 Dynamic Traffic Assignment ................................................................................. 574 8.12 Transportation Demand Analysis Based on Discrete Choice Models .................. 575 8.13 Logit Model ............................................................................................................ 577 8.13.1 Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives Property...................................... 581 8.13.2 Logit Model Estimation .............................................................................. 582

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8.14 Application of the Computational Intelligence Techniques for the Prediction of Travel Demand ....................................................................................................... 585 8.15 Activity-Based Travel Demand Models ................................................................ 587 8.15.1 Basic Characteristics of the Activity-Based Travel Models ...................... 588 8.16 Problems ................................................................................................................. 591 References .............................................................................................................. 593

CHAPTER 9 Freight Transportation and Logistics .................................................. 597 9.1 Logistics Systems Basics ....................................................................................... 597 9.1.1 Reverse Logistics .......................................................................................... 600 9.2 Road Freight Transport Infrastructure ................................................................... 601 9.2.1 “Ultimate” and “Practical” Capacity and Service Level of Road Truck Roads................................................................................................... 602 9.2.2 “Ultimate” and “Practical” Capacity of Road Freight Terminals and Their Level-of-Service ........................................................................... 603 9.3 Service Networks of the Road Freight Transport Operators................................. 605 9.3.1 Capacities and Service Level of the Road Freight Transport Service Networks........................................................................................................ 605 9.4 City Logistics ......................................................................................................... 609 9.4.1 Urban Freight Transport Basics .................................................................... 610 9.4.2 Urban Freight Distribution Systems ............................................................. 612 9.5 Basics of Location Theory ..................................................................................... 623 9.5.1 Location Problems Classification ................................................................. 624 9.5.2 Measuring Distances Between Facilities and Demand-Generating Nodes ............................................................................................................. 625 9.5.3 The Location Set Covering Problem ............................................................ 626 9.5.4 Maximal Covering Location Problem .......................................................... 631 9.5.5 Medians.......................................................................................................... 632 9.5.6 Hub Location ................................................................................................. 638 9.6 Vehicle Routing and Scheduling ........................................................................... 639 9.6.1 VRPs Types ................................................................................................... 640 9.6.2 Vehicle Routing and Scheduling Problems Complexity .............................. 642 9.6.3 Traveling Salesman Problem ........................................................................ 642 9.6.4 Vehicle Routing Problem .............................................................................. 644 9.6.5 Clark-Wright’s “Savings” Algorithm for the VRP....................................... 646 9.6.6 Sweep Algorithm for the VRP...................................................................... 652 9.7 Problems ................................................................................................................. 658 References .............................................................................................................. 660 Website ................................................................................................................... 662

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CHAPTER 10 Transport Economics............................................................................. 663 10.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 663 10.2 Definition of the Main Terms ................................................................................ 665 10.2.1 Transport Sector/Industry............................................................................ 665 10.2.2 Fixed and Variable Costs ............................................................................ 665 10.2.3 Economies of Scale and Economies of Scope ........................................... 666 10.2.4 The Cost Function and Revenues ............................................................... 667 10.2.5 Relationship Between Demand and Supply ............................................... 670 10.3 Transportation Projects Evaluation ........................................................................ 671 10.4 Cost-Benefit Analysis............................................................................................. 672 10.5 Infrastructure Cost .................................................................................................. 675 10.5.1 Urban Mass Transit Systems....................................................................... 675 10.5.2 Road............................................................................................................. 681 10.5.3 Rail............................................................................................................... 682 10.5.4 Inland Waterways........................................................................................ 683 10.5.5 Ports ............................................................................................................. 685 10.5.6 Airports ........................................................................................................ 687 10.6 Operating Costs and Revenues .............................................................................. 688 10.6.1 Individual Cars ............................................................................................ 688 10.6.2 Urban Mass Transit Systems....................................................................... 691 10.6.3 Interurban Mass Transit Systems................................................................ 699 10.6.4 Inland Waterways Cargo Transport ............................................................ 709 10.6.5 Maritime Cargo Transport........................................................................... 712 10.6.6 Air ................................................................................................................ 723 10.6.7 Intermodal—Rail/Road Freight Transport.................................................. 734 References .............................................................................................................. 742 Websites.................................................................................................................. 745

CHAPTER 11 Transportation, Environment, and Society ......................................... 747 11.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 747 11.2 Categorization and Modeling Impacts ................................................................... 748 11.2.1 Congestion ................................................................................................... 748 11.2.2 Noise ............................................................................................................ 749 11.2.3 Traffic Incidents/Accidents (Safety) ........................................................... 751 11.2.4 Energy/Fuel Consumption and Emissions of GHG.................................... 752 11.2.5 Land Use...................................................................................................... 760 11.2.6 Waste ........................................................................................................... 761 11.3 Road-Based Systems .............................................................................................. 761 11.3.1 Congestion ................................................................................................... 761 11.3.2 Noise ............................................................................................................ 765 11.3.3 Traffic Accidents/Incidents (Safety) ........................................................... 772

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11.3.4 Energy/Fuel Consumption and Emissions of GHG.................................... 776 11.3.5 Land Use...................................................................................................... 788 11.4 Rail-Based Systems ................................................................................................ 790 11.4.1 Congestion ................................................................................................... 790 11.4.2 Noise ............................................................................................................ 791 11.4.3 Traffic Accidents/Incidents (Safety) ........................................................... 798 11.4.4 Energy/Fuel Consumption and Emissions of GHG.................................... 808 11.4.5 Land Use...................................................................................................... 817 11.5 Water-Based Systems............................................................................................. 819 11.5.1 Congestion ................................................................................................... 819 11.5.2 Noise ............................................................................................................ 820 11.5.3 Traffic Accidents/Incidents (Safety) ........................................................... 821 11.5.4 Energy/Fuel Consumption and Emissions of GHG.................................... 825 11.5.5 Land Use...................................................................................................... 840 11.5.6 Waste ........................................................................................................... 842 11.6 Air-Based Systems ................................................................................................. 844 11.6.1 Congestion ................................................................................................... 844 11.6.2 Noise ............................................................................................................ 848 11.6.3 Traffic Accidents and Incidents (Safety).................................................... 854 11.6.4 Energy/Fuel Consumption and Emissions of GHG.................................... 857 11.6.5 Land Use...................................................................................................... 865 11.7 Costs of Impacts—Externalities............................................................................. 868 11.7.1 Definition..................................................................................................... 868 11.7.2 Some Modeling ........................................................................................... 870 11.7.3 Some Estimation/Quantification ................................................................. 876 References .............................................................................................................. 879 Website ................................................................................................................... 885

CHAPTER 12 Resilience of Transport Systems ......................................................... 887 12.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................ 887 12.2 Reliability, Resilience, Robustness, and Vulnerability of Engineering Systems ................................................................................................................... 888 12.2.1 Concept and Definition ............................................................................... 888 12.2.2 Uncertainty .................................................................................................. 891 12.3 Reliability, Resilience, Robustness, and Vulnerability of Transport Systems...... 891 12.3.1 Concept and Definition ............................................................................... 891 12.3.2 Disruptive Events ........................................................................................ 896 12.4 Indicators of Performances for Estimating Reliability, Resilience, Robustness, and Vulnerability ............................................................................... 904 12.4.1 Scope............................................................................................................ 904 12.4.2 Models of Indicators.................................................................................... 905

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12.5 Examples of Estimating Reliability, Resilience, Robustness, and Vulnerability.................................................................................................... 916 12.5.1 Road Transport Mode.................................................................................. 916 12.5.2 Rail Transport Mode ................................................................................... 923 12.5.3 Air Transport Mode..................................................................................... 931 12.6 Contingency Measures and Disruption Management............................................ 939 12.6.1 Public Transport .......................................................................................... 939 12.6.2 Evacuation Problems................................................................................... 940 12.6.3 Evacuation Process...................................................................................... 941 12.6.4 k-Shortest Paths Concept in Evacuation ..................................................... 941 12.6.5 Evacuees’ Departure Rate and Departure Times........................................ 943 12.6.6 Evacuation Strategies .................................................................................. 944 12.6.7 The Performance Metrics ............................................................................ 944 12.7 Comparing Reliability, Resilience, Robustness, Vulnerability, and Sustainability of Transport Systems ............................................................... 945 12.7.1 Similarity and Differences .......................................................................... 945 12.7.2 Possibility for Common Approach ............................................................. 948 12.7.3 Examples of Common Approach................................................................ 951 12.8 Problems ................................................................................................................. 959 References .............................................................................................................. 959 Websites.................................................................................................................. 963 Index .................................................................................................................................................. 965

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About the authors Dr. Dušan Teodorovi c is a professor at the Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, Serbia. He has been an elected member of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts and the European Academy of Sciences and Arts. Dr. Teodorovi c has been the Honorable Senator of the University of Ljubljana, Slovenia, since 2011. He was the vice rector of the University of Belgrade.

He has worldwide academic experience with formal appointments at Virginia Tech, United States.

Professor Teodorovi c was a visiting professor and visiting scholar at many universities in Europe, the United States, and Asia. Since 2006, he has been professor emeritus at Virginia Tech, United States.

Dr. Teodorovi c has authored or coauthored numerous research publications in peer-reviewed international journals, book chapters, and conference proceedings. He has published the following books: Airline Operations Research, Traffic Control and Transportation Planning: A Fuzzy Sets and Neural Networks Approach, Transport Systems: Modelling, Planning and Evaluation, and Transportation Engineering: Theory, Practice and Modelling (first edition, coauthorship). Professor Teodorovi c is the editor of the Routledge Handbook of Transportation. His primary research interests are in operations research and computational intelligence applications in transportation engineering.

Dr. Milan Jani c is a research professor at the University of Belgrade, Serbia. Previously, he was senior researcher at the Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences (Department of Transport and Planning) of the Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands. He was also a leader of the Research Program and senior researcher at Manchester Metropolitan University, Loughborough University, and the Institute of Transport of the Slovenian Railways. Dr. Jani c has been involved in many research and planning projects at both national and international levels for almost 30 years. He has also published numerous papers in peer-reviewed journals. In addition to contributing to many edited books, he has published the following books: System Analysis and Modelling in Air Transport: Demand, Capacity, Quality of Services, Economics, and Sustainability; Landside Accessibility of Airports; Analysis, Modelling, Planning, and Design; Transport Systems: Modelling, Planning and Evaluation; Transportation Engineering: Theory, Practice and Modelling (first edition, coauthorship); Advanced Transport Systems: Analysis, Modelling, and Evaluation of Performances; Greening Airports: Advanced Technology and Operations; Airport Analysis, Planning and Design: Demand, Capacity and Congestion; The Sustainability of Air Transportation: A Quantitative Analysis and Assessment; and Air Transport System Analysis and Modelling: Capacity, Quality of Services and Economics.

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Foreword to the first edition It is with great pleasure that I am writing this foreword to Transportation Engineering: Theory, Practice and Modeling by Dušan Teodorovi c and Milan Jani c. I have known the two authors for a long time—close to 40 years now. Both have enjoyed highly productive and distinguished careers at major universities, not only in their native lands of Serbia and Slovenia, but also in the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. Their experience as educators and expertise as researchers are reflected in this valuable book. They have witnessed first-hand and have devoted themselves to the development and evolution of the transportation field during their professional lifetimes.

Since 2001, I have been co-teaching with various colleagues at MIT a course called “Transportation Systems Analysis: Supply and Performance,” which introduces fundamental quantitative models and their application to first-year graduate students in our Transportation Program. The course attempts to provide an overview that spans all modes of transport and cuts across the disciplines of traffic engineering, transportation science, transportation economics, and operations research. While developing the course and in the years that have followed, I have been struck by the absence of a textbook that covers this material in an integrated fashion and at an adequate and consistent mathematical level.

The available books tend to be focused primarily on a single mode and, usually, on only specific aspects of the mode, such as urban traffic, highway traffic, public transit, or air traffic management. Moreover, their mathematical level is all too often either elementary—so that the reader cannot appreciate the power of the existing analytical tools—or uneven, alternating between very basic and too advanced.

As a result, my colleagues and I have relied on our own course notes, supplemented by selected readings of landmark papers or book chapters.

This new book therefore constitutes a most welcome addition to the transportation literature, as it addresses the central issue I identified in the previous paragraph—lack of integration across transportation modes, disciplines, and methodological approaches. Taking advantage of their complementary areas of expertise, the authors have managed to write a textbook that truly spans all modes. Having devoted a large part of my own research to air transportation, I am particularly pleased to see that airports and air traffic have been given their “fair share” of attention. Air transport has become the dominant mode of long-haul passenger transportation on a global scale, and it is essential that transportation professionals and students become familiar with some of the most important models that describe air traffic movement and processes. An added benefit, in this respect, is that air traffic models typically treat vehicles (the airplanes) as discrete objects. Thus, these models expose the reader to a set of methodologies, such as integer programming, that focus on individual, “atomistic” entities. Air traffic models therefore offer a perspective different from the continuous flow models that are generally used to study road and highway traffic.

Another welcome feature of the book is that it does not draw a priori any dividing lines between modes of transport, but is structured around a set of major common themes, such as “traffic flow theory,” “capacity and level of service,” “traffic control,” “transportation planning,” and “environmental impacts.” This makes it possible to integrate the material better and facilitates the highlighting of the similarities and differences among the methodologies and modeling approaches used for each mode.

The major common themes are themselves arranged in a logical sequence, so that the reader can progress from an understanding of the “physics” of the individual elements of transportation

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networks—e.g., flows in a road segment, traffic light settings at an isolated intersection, the capacity of a runway—to studying the performance of the networks as a whole. In this respect, the authors take great pains to emphasize the importance of considering how the pieces fit together into systems. This book is definitely “network-centric” and discusses the design of transportation networks, including multimodal ones, their optimization at the planning level and the operations level, their control in the long run (“demand management”) and in real time, and the economics and environmental impacts of the different modes.

The centerpiece of the book lies, I believe, in the presentation of fundamental models, i.e., mathematical abstractions and constructs that are used to represent essential features of actual transportation systems. In the transportation field, we are fortunate at this point to have an abundance of such models.

As the authors make clear, the appropriate model to use depends on the questions that one wishes to answer. Any given transportation system can be modeled in several different ways, according to the question at hand. One can have models that are deterministic or probabilistic/stochastic, depending on the extent to which one wishes to account for uncertainty; static or dynamic over time; macroscopic or microscopic depending on the level of detail one wishes to capture; and analytically based or simulation-based depending on the methodology used—with numerous additional subcategories when it comes to analytical models. The reader will find all these types of models in different parts of this book.

During the second half of the 20th century, studies in transportation engineering and transportation science made huge strides toward developing a knowledge base of methodologies and models for studying, quantifying, and predicting the behavior of transportation systems. As a result, we now have a much better understanding of how to plan, design, manage, and operate transportation networks. The first two decades of the 21st century have added to this arsenal of tools the ability to collect and process, often in real time, enormous amounts of data about the state of transportation networks. However, to take full advantage of this newfound capability, one must be familiar with this knowledge base of methodologies and models. This book, I believe, makes an important contribution toward providing this crucial background for students and professionals alike, including a much-needed historical perspective. I am quite certain that the readers will agree with this assessment.

Amedeo R. Odoni T. Wilson Chair Professor Emeritus of Aeronautics and Astronautics Professor Emeritus of Civil and Environmental Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology March 2016

Foreword to the second edition It is a great pleasure to write the foreword to the second edition of this book by two of the most eminent transportation researchers and educators, Drs. Dušan Teodorovi c and Milan Jani c. As noted by Professor Amedeo R. Odoni in the foreword to the first edition of this textbook, this is an exceptionally thorough and well-integrated introduction to transportation engineering. It is a notable landmark among transportation engineering textbooks in the way it leads readers from basic concepts to relatively advanced methods that enable them to understand, analyze, and improve transportation systems.

For students and practitioners of transportation engineering and other disciplines related to transportation, such as operations research, transportation planning, and transportation economics, this very impressive book is not only surprisingly comprehensive for a one-volume textbook but also exciting to dig into. It introduces and explains basic concepts such as fundamental traffic flow or travel demand relations in clear and simple ways, using helpful graphics, while then leading readers to more complex analysis methods and application examples. It provides relatively easy introductions to the basic methods of optimization, probability and statistics, queuing systems, economic analysis, and system evaluation that are most useful and widely used in analyzing transportation systems. I found the problems provided at the ends of chapters to be especially useful in applying the lessons of those chapters.

Among the highlights of this book, I am especially impressed with the following: Chapter 2 presents not only the characteristics of various transportation modes but also the competitive and cooperative relations among modes. Chapter 3 presents not only the most commonly used methods, such as linear programming, network flow algorithms, and queuing methods, but also some that are not often covered in basic transportation textbooks, such as multi-attribute decision-making (MADM), data envelopment analysis (DEA), fuzzy sets, and neural networks. The discussion of shock waves and network flow diagrams in Chapter 4 seems especially interesting.

Chapter 5 analyzes capacity and level of service not only for roads, as commonly found in other basic textbooks, but also for public transportation systems, railroads, inland waterways, maritime transportation, and air transportation, including airports and air traffic control systems. Chapter 6 on control systems covers not only traffic signals for road networks, but also more general transportation system management approaches, applications of intelligent transportation systems in managing networks, and control systems used for railroads and air traffic. The presentation of unconventional intersections and interchanges is especially notable. It is interesting that the authors introduce concepts about capacity reservations systems, including auctions, based on their own research.

Chapter 7 on public transportation covers demand-responsive transit systems with fixed routes and schedules. Unusually, it also covers intercity ground passenger transportation and airline services, while providing considerable details on the management of such operations.

Chapter 8 on demand analysis presents not only the conventional methods for forecasting demand, but also such interesting topics as heuristic traffic assignment algorithms, dynamic traffic assignment, and computational intelligence techniques for travel demand forecasting.

Chapter 9 includes a very innovative discussion of city logistics.

After presenting the basic concepts of microeconomics, Chapter 10 provides detailed cost functions, for initial as well as operating costs, that are useful in evaluating various transportation modes and services.

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Chapter 11 presents the major environmental impacts (noise, safety, energy use, pollution, land use) for all major modes using congestion as the starting point.

The most notable addition beyond the first edition of this book is Chapter 12, which covers broadly and quite deeply the resilience of transportation systems. It explains clearly the concepts of reliability, resilience, robustness, and vulnerability. It then provides methods for measuring and improving these aspects of transportation system performance, through such means as design redundancy, contingency planning, and evacuation planning. As in previous chapters, the concepts, performance measures, analysis methods, and examples are provided for each major transportation mode.

Overall, this is an excellent book not only for beginners in transportation engineering but also for experienced professionals. It is very valuable in organizing knowledge, relating problems to analysis methods and possible solutions, as well as placing in perspective the many aspects of the very broad and deep field of transportation engineering.

Paul Schonfeld Professor Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Maryland, College Park May 2021

Preface to the first edition When once you have tasted flight, you will forever walk the earth with your eyes turned skyward, for there you have been, and there you will always long to return.

Leonardo da Vinci

Joint writing a book is not a simple task. It is similar to playing the piano with four hands. We met, for the first time, in 1974, at the University of Belgrade, Serbia, when the first author was a teaching assistant, and another undergraduate student. We had a different professional careers in the countries in which we lived. During occasional meetings, we have been strengthened in our belief that we have similar views on important transportation engineering issues. During our professional careers, we were professors, and visiting scholars at the universities in Europe, the United States, and Asia.

For many years, we have been studying fascinating traffic phenomena. We thought, at one point, that it was time to write our book about transportation engineering fundamentals. We strongly believe that each new book in a certain area opens up new views to the reader. We have tried in this book to touch on urban and road transportation, air transportation, railways, inland water transportation, and logistics. This book begins with the story about the earliest discovered paths, made by animals, and adapted by humans, found near Jericho, and arrives at the issues related to the autonomous car (self-driving car, driverless car, robotic car) that are now around us. The following is a brief description of the book chapters.

Chapter 2 introduces the reader to the field of transportation engineering. The chapter covers the history of transportation, offers basic definitions and classification of the transportation systems, and describes the most important transportation systems issues: planning, control, congestion, safety, and environment protection.

Chapter 3 deals with traffic and transportation analysis techniques. This chapter covers object motion and time-space diagrams, transportation networks basics, mathematical programming applications in traffic and transportation, the relationship between the probability theory and traffic phenomena, queueing theory, simulation techniques, and computational intelligence techniques.

Chapter 4 covers traffic flow theory basics. The chapter describes measurements of the basic flow variables, speed-density relationship, flow-density relationship, speed-flow relationship, fundamental diagram of traffic flow, micro-simulation traffic models, car following models, and network flow diagram.

Chapter 5 involves capacity and level of service of different transportation modes (highways, urban transit systems, urban freight transport systems, rail interurban transport systems, inland waterway freight/cargo transport systems, maritime freight/cargo transport systems, air transport systems, and air traffic control systems).

Chapter 6 describes traffic control techniques related to the road, rail, and air traffic control systems.

The chapter covers a variety of traffic control measures, methods, and strategies that should be implemented in order to use the existing transportation infrastructure optimally.

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