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Transportation Amid Pandemics

World Conference on Transport Research Society Transportation Amid Pandemics

Lessons Learned from COVID-19

Edited by

Junyi Zhang

Co-chair, WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force, Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan

Yoshitsugu Hayashi

Chair, WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force, Center for Sustainable Development and Global Smart City, Chubu University, Kasugai, Aichi, Japan

Series Editors

Füsun Ülengin

Antony May

Manfred Boltze

Barghab Maitra

Masanobu Kii

Alison Conway

Elsevier

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The Boulevard, Langford Lane, Kidlington, Oxford OX5 1GB, United Kingdom

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Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Details on how to seek permission, further information about the Publisher’s permissions policies and our arrangements with organizations such as the Copyright Clearance Center and the Copyright Licensing Agency, can be found at our website: www.elsevier.com/permissions

This book and the individual contributions contained in it are protected under copyright by the Publisher (other than as may be noted herein).

Notices

Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing. As new research and experience broaden our understanding, changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical treatment may become necessary.

Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own experience and knowledge in evaluating and using any information, methods, compounds, or experiments described herein. In using such information or methods they should be mindful of their own safety and the safety of others, including parties for whom they have a professional responsibility.

To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the material herein.

ISBN: 978-0-323-99770-6

For information on all Elsevier publications visit our website at https://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals

Publisher: Joseph P Hayton

Acquisitions Editor: Kathryn Eryilmaz

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Cover Designer: Greg Harris

Typeset by STRAIVE, India

3. The public health challenge of

Preface: The journey of this book project

1. COVID-19 and transport: Recording the history of fights against pandemics

Junyi Zhang and Yoshitsugu Hayashi

1.1

1.2

Part I

2. Historical overview of pandemics

Hitomi Nakanishi and Yasuko Hassall Kobayashi

2.1

2.2

2.2.1

2.2.2

Part II Overall impacts

4. The impacts of the built environment factors and population mobility on the spread of COVID-19 during its initial stage of the COVID-19 pandemic: A case of China

Shuang Ma, Shuangjin Li, and Junyi Zhang

4.3.2 The influence of the built environment on COVID-19 spread

4.4 Conclusion

4.5.3

5. Impacts of COVID-19 on the transport sector in China: Facts and insights from early stages

Huiyu Zhou, Yacan Wang, and Joseph R. Huscroft

5.1 Introduction

5.2 Confirmed infection cases and deaths in China

5.3 Preparedness: Lessons learned from history, guidelines, and contingency plans of different transportation modes and facilities

5.4 Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic

5.4.1 Impact of COVID-19 on China’s economy, society, and people’s lives

5.4.2 Impacts on international travel

5.4.3 Impacts on transportation system

5.4.4 Impacts on inter- and intra-city transportation

5.5 During-pandemic policy measures

5.6 Changes in lifestyles and business operation styles as well as society due to the pandemic

5.7 Lessons learned from the duringpandemic measures and experience

5.8 Conclusions, policy recommendations, future research

6. Impacts of COVID-19 on the economy and the transportation

6.1

7. Impacts of COVID-19 on transport and responses to pandemic control in the Philippines

7.4 Moving forward in incorporating the transport policy framework on how

8. Changes in mobility and challenges to the transport sector in Brazil due to COVID-19

Antônio Nélson Rodrigues da Silva, Cira Souza Pitombo, Jorge Ubirajara Pedreira Junior, Thayanne Gabryelle Medeiros Ciriaco, and Carolina Silva Costa

8.7 Future trends and policy-related challenges 113

8.8 Final remarks 114

8.8.1 Key findings 114

8.8.2 Policy recommendations 115

8.8.3 Research recommendations 115 References 115

Part III

Logistics and supply chains

9. Control and countermeasures for COVID-19 in the cold chain: The experiences of cold chain logistics in China

Taoxing Zhu and Suixin Wang

9.1 Background and research on the cold chain transmission of COVID-19 121

9.1.1 Background 121

9.1.2 Literature review 122

9.2 Import cold chain links and COVID-19 invasion risk process 123

9.2.1 Import cold chain logistics process 123

9.2.2 Possible contamination points along cold chain links 124

9.3 Epidemic risk control in the cold chain 125

9.3.1 Strictly implement epidemic prevention measures 125

9.3.2 Strengthening of personnel protection 127

9.3.3 Effective connection of cold chain links 128

9.4 Epidemic prevention and control mechanism based on cold chain links 128

9.4.1 A perfect risk control mechanism shall be established for cold chain logistics 128

9.4.2 Strictly follow the implementation mechanism of import and export cold chain standards 129

9.4.3 Establishment of scientific monitoring mechanism for international cold chain communication of COVID-19 129

9.4.4 Development of global COVID-19 cold chain cooperation prevention and control mechanism 129

9.5 Conclusions and discussion 129 References 130

10. Urban logistics and COVID-19

10.1 Introduction

10.2 Referenced impacts of the pandemic on urban logistics

10.2.1 Monitoring and assessing COVID impacts in real time

10.2.2 A massive acceleration in online shopping

10.2.3 Changes and innovations in urban freight service provision 133

10.2.4 On-demand “instant deliveries” have taken center stage 134

10.2.5 Warehousing developments 134

10.3 Case study in Paris: Impacts of COVID on urban logistics operators 134

10.3.1 The first lockdown: Extreme variability of orders and sectorial economic difficulties

10.3.2 Two sectorial focuses: Parcel delivery and instant food delivery

10.3.3 Logistics real estate delayed by administrative hurdles

10.3.4 A summary of stakeholder issues and adaptability

10.4 Policy implications

10.4.1 Fast and efficient responses to the first emergencies 137

10.4.2 Logistics omitted from several postlockdown initiatives

10.5 Changing urban logistics in a postpandemic world

10.6 Key messages

10.6.1 Key findings

10.6.2 Policy recommendations

10.6.3 Research recommendations

11. Freight operations in the European Union during the COVID-19 pandemic: A multicountry comparison

Ralf Elbert, Felix Roeper, Thierry Vanelslander, and Federico Cavallaro

11.1 Introduction

11.2 Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on freight transport in the EU

11.2.1 Belgium

11.2.2 Italy

11.2.3 Germany

11.3 Government support for freight operations in the EU 148

11.5.1

12. Short-run impacts of COVID-19 on the maritime and port sector: Measures and recommended policies

Thierry Vanelslander

12.1 Introduction

12.2 Immediate impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic 154

12.2.1

12.2.3 Capacity inputs and utilization 160

12.3 During-pandemic policy measures 161

12.4 Changes in lifestyles and business operation styles as well as society due to the pandemic 163

12.5 Lessons learned from the duringpandemic measures, guidelines, and contingency plans 165

12.6 Conclusion: Findings and recommendations 166

12.6.1 Findings

12.6.2 Policy recommendations

13. Longer-run policy measures on COVID-19 for the maritime and port sector: Plans and recommendations

Thierry Vanelslander and Patrick Verhoeven

13.1 Introduction 169 13.2

14. The impact of COVID-19 on air cargo logistics and supply chains

Lucy Budd and Stephen Ison

14.2

Part IV

Responses to distancing policies and

public

transport

15. Changes in activity organization and travel behavior choices in the United States

Jaime Soza-Parra, Giovanni Circella, and Daniel Sperling

15.1

15.3 Changes in work habit and mobility 195

15.4 Long-term consequences, planning, equity implications, and policy recommendations 197

15.4.1 Planning and equity implications, and policy recommendations 198

15.5 Key messages 199

15.5.1 Key findings 199

15.5.2 Policy recommendations 199

15.5.3 Research recommendations 199 References 199

16. Social contact patterns and changes at leisure/tourism activity settings during COVID-19 period: An international comparison

Rui Liu, Hongxiang Ding, and Junyi Zhang

16.1 Introduction 201

16.2 Survey and data 202

16.3 Results 203

16.3.1 Activity participation 203

16.3.2 Social contact patterns 204

16.4 Conclusions 221

16.5 Messages 221

16.5.1 Key findings 221

16.5.2 Key policy recommendations 221

16.5.3 Research recommendations 222 Acknowledgment 222 References 222

17. A cross-country analysis of behavioral changes in response to COVID-19 social distancing policies

Hiroyoshi Morita, Tsuyoshi Takano, Shinichiro Nakamura, and Yoshitsugu Hayashi

17.1 Introduction 225

17.2 Data 226

17.2.1 Mobility change data 226

17.2.2 Oxford COVID-19 government response tracker 226

17.3 Methods 227

17.4 Results and discussion 227

17.5 Conclusion 230

17.6

17.6.1

17.6.2

18. The impacts of COVID-19 and social distancing policies on social capital in Japan

Hiroyoshi Morita, Tsuyoshi Takano, Shinichiro Nakamura, and Yoshitsugu Hayashi

18.1 Introduction

18.2 Data and method

18.3.1 Impact of social distancing against COVID-19 on lifestyle, behavior, and income

18.3.2 Differences in the impact of socioeconomic conditions on lifestyle and income

18.3.3 Impact of lifestyle changes on social environment

18.3.4 Change in social capital

18.4 Discussion

18.5 Conclusions

18.6 Key messages

18.6.1 Key findings

18.6.2 Policy recommendations

18.6.3 Research recommendations

19. Restriction of public transport services as a part of COVID-19 containment policies and user responses

Takeru Shibayama

19.1 Introduction

19.2 COVID-19 policies in the public transport sector

19.2.1 OxCGRT data

19.2.2 Service restrictions of public transport

19.2.3 Interrelations between service restriction and movement restriction

19.3 User response to public transport during pandemic

19.3.1 TU Wien questionnaire

19.3.2 Changes in commuting travel behavior

19.3.3 Mode choice

19.3.4 Reasons for changes in mode choice

19.4 Discussion and conclusion

20. Comparing mobility, behavior, and public transit’s pandemic adaptation in New Zealand and U.S. cities

Leandro da Silva Correa and Anthony Perl

20.1 Introduction 261

20.2 Methodology 262

20.3 Selected cities 263

20.4 Data 264

20.4.1 COVID-19 dataset 264

20.4.2 Restriction measures dataset 264

20.4.3 E-urban mobility dataset 265

20.4.4 Transit ridership dataset 265

20.5 Analysis 265

20.5.1 Correlation analysis 268

20.6 Conclusions

21. Impact of COVID-19 on transportation in urban India

S. Velmurugan, S. Padma, Mukti Advani, Ritu Sharma, Ruchi Singhal, Chetan Patel, Vidushi Jaya, Premjit Khanganba Sanjram, Arti Roshan Soni, Kumar Amrit, Nitin Goyal, Chithira Unnikrishnan, Nurul Hassan, and Prasanta Kumar Bhuyan

21.1 COVID-19 Pandemic in India 275

21.2 Public transport usage: Global scenario 281

21.3 COVID-19 spread and transport usage: Indian scenario 283

21.4 Effect of COVID-19 on mode choice behavior 285

21.5 Managing the gap between demand and supply of bus transport during COVID-19: Case study of Delhi 286

21.5.1 Bus trip characteristics for Pre-COVID Scenario 286

21.5.2 Alternate strategies to balance the gap between demand and supply of bus trips 287

21.5.3 Comparison of strategies 289

21.6 Role of contactless technology to improve ridership and revenue of public transport 290

21.7 Concluding remarks

21.8 Key findings

21.9 Policy recommendations

21.10 Research recommendations 291 References

22. Passengers’ perception of COVID-19 countermeasures on urban railway in Bangkok

Varameth Vichiensan, Yoshitsugu Hayashi, and Sudarat Kamnerdsap

22.1 Introduction 293

22.1.1 COVID-19 pandemic in Thailand 293

22.1.2 Objectives 294

22.2 Review of the countermeasures on public transport in the other countries 294

22.3 Bangkok urban railway during the pandemic 295

22.3.1 Impact to rail ridership 295

22.3.2 Rail countermeasures

22.4 Data and method

22.4.1 Rail passenger interview 298

22.4.2 Travel behaviors during the pandemic 298

22.4.3 Perception of the COVID-19 countermeasures on rail 298

22.4.4 Factor analyses 298 22.5 Results 300

22.5.1 Exploratory factor analysis 300

22.5.2 Confirmatory factory analysis 302

22.6 Discussions 303

22.6.1 Significance of the countermeasures 303

22.6.2 Policy implications

22.8 Message

22.8.1 Key findings

22.8.2 Policy recommendations

22.8.3 Research recommendations

Part V

Recovery

23. The resilience of national highway transportation in China under the COVID-19 outbreak

Zhao Zhang, Feng Liu, and Daocheng Fu

23.1 Introduction 311

23.1.1 Impact of transportation on COVID-19 311

23.1.2 Impact of COVID-19 and control policy on transportation 312

23.1.3 Resilience quantification under emergencies 312

23.2 Research goal and approaches 313

23.3 Resilience 313

23.3.1 Definition 313

23.3.2 Quantification 313

23.4 Bounce level 314

23.5 Relationship between bounce level and recovery time 316

23.6 Conclusion 317 Acknowledgments 318 References 318

24. Tourism policy responses to COVID-19 and first-stage tourism recovery in China

Linghan Zhang, Rui Liu, Junyi Zhang, and Fengzhi Sun

24.1 Introduction 321

24.2 Research on tourism policy responses to COVID-19 in the first stage 322

24.3 Method 322

24.3.1 Data collection 322

24.3.2 Data analysis 322

24.4 Results and discussions 323

24.4.1 Summary of tourism policy responses in China during 2020 323

24.4.2 Tourism policy responses in detail 324

24.5 Conclusions and implications 328 References 330

25. The recovery of long-distance mobility after COVID-19: What can we expect?

Julien Brunel

25.1 Introduction 331

25.2 The immediate and global impact of COVID-19 331

25.3 The long-term impacts of COVID-19 on mobility 332

25.3.1 The scarring effects of COVID-19 on business travel 332

25.3.2 The hope of a sustainable post-COVID recovery 333

25.3.3 Travel restrictions 333

25.4 An acceleration of preexisting trends 333

25.4.1 The drop of business travel 334

25.4.2 Flygskam 334

25.5 Conclusion 336 References 337

26. Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 on carbon emissions from the road transport sector in China

Runsen Zhang, Junyi Zhang, Wenchao Wu, and Tatsuya Hanaoka

26.1 Introduction 339

26.2 Data and methods 340

26.3 Results 341

26.3.1 Provincial monthly transport emissions from 2019 to 2020 341

26.3.2 Regional emission trajectories and monthly emission reductions 343

26.3.3 Spatial characteristics of transport emissions 344

26.4 Discussion and conclusions 346 References

27. Contagion spread modeling in transport networks and transport operation optimizations for containing epidemics

Xiaobo Qu, Kun Gao, and Xiaopeng Li

27.1 Introduction 349

27.2 Modeling the contagion spreading through transport networks 350

27.2.1 Spatial metapopulation model 351

27.2.2 Individual-based models 351

27.2.3 Future work directions 352

27.3 Transport operation optimization in the aftermath of COVID-19 pandemic 353

27.3.1 Needs of transport operation optimization due to pandemic 353

27.3.2 Operation optimization of transit systems and research directions 354

27.4 Conclusions 354

27.4.1 Key findings 355

27.4.2 Policy recommendation 355

27.4.3 Research recommendation 356 References 356

28. COVID-19 and big data technologies: Experience in China

Jing Kang and Junyi Zhang

28.1 Introduction 359

28.2 Sources of big data 360

28.2.1 Big data on human mobility 360

28.2.2 Epidemiological survey data

28.3 Smartphone applications of big data 361

28.3.1 Measurement of close contacts 361

28.3.2 Health code 362

28.4 Evidence regarding control measures 363

28.4.1 Lockdown measures 363

28.4.2 Restriction of movement and social distancing 363

28.4.3 Identification of infection risk scenarios 364

28.4.4 Cross-border transportation of food in the cold chain 364

28.5 Roles of big data in policy implementation 365

28.5.1 Multilevel management of epidemic control 365

28.5.2 Support for decision making on the resumption of activities 365

28.6 Conclusion and outlook 368

28.6.1 Key messages of policy recommendations 368

28.6.2 Future research challenges 369 References 369

Part VI

Future transformation

29. Collective thoughts about the COVID-19 pandemic and transport from a worldwide expert survey

Junyi Zhang and Yoshitsugu Hayashi

29.1 Introduction 373

29.2 Uncertainties and unknowns 374

29.3 Mindsets of policymakers 374

29.4 A chance to make great changes: This will never come again 375

29.5 Immediate measures for surviving COVID-19 376

29.6 Measures for the “new normal” period of the COVID-19 pandemic 377

29.6.1 Upstream measures: Public health, social, and economic systems 377

29.6.2 Downstream measures: Transport and logistics measures 377

29.7 Long-term changes in lifestyles 378

29.8 Measures for developing countries 379

29.9 Conclusions and future research issues 380

29.9.1 Interdisciplinary research on transport, urban planning, and public health measures 381

29.9.2 Revolutionary approach for resolving complex issues caused by pandemics 381

30. Leveraging the COVID-19 crisis for better public transport services in Asian cities

Fuyo Jenny Yamamoto, Madan B. Regmi, and Junyi Zhang

30.1 Introduction 383

30.2 Overview of transport policy responses to COVID-19 in Asia 384

30.2.1 Measures to restrict people’s mobilities

30.2.2 Measures to reduce transmission risks in transit

30.3 Implications of COVID-19 policy responses for public transport services

30.3.1 Governance and financing of public transport

30.3.2 Quality of services

30.3.3 Access control and digital exclusion

30.3.4 Modal integration

30.3.5 Collaboration with different stakeholders

30.5.1

30.5.2

30.5.3

31. Putting gender equality in the core of COVID-19 recovery for transport

Wei-Shiuen Ng, Magdalena Olczak, and Melissa Pedroso Moura

31.1 Introduction

31.2 Impact of COVID-19 on women as transport users

31.3 Impact of COVID-19 on women as transport workers

31.4 Policy responses to improve gender equality in transport

31.4.1 Providing targeted transport services

31.4.2 Promoting sustainable transport modes 403

31.4.3 Developing safety measures for transport users and workers 403

31.4.4 Improving working conditions for women 404

31.4.5 Strengthening security measure in public transport 404

31.5 Policy insights to achieve a more sustainable and inclusive transport future 404

31.5.1 Design transport services to meet women’s transport preferences 405

31.5.2 Improve transport safety for all users 405

31.5.3 Improve gender equality in the transport workforce 405

References 406

32. A proposal of recommendations for post-Corona mobility

Hideyuki Kanoshima, Yu Hasegwa, Takashi Oguchi, and Yoshihiro Suda

32.1 Outline of this chapter 409

32.1.1 Objectives and approaches 409

32.1.2 Layout of this chapter 410

32.2 Overview of the pandemic in Japan 410

32.2.1 Number of infected people 410

32.3 Urban transportation 411

32.3.1 Before the pandemic: Overcrowding and slow digitization 411

32.3.2 During the pandemic: Changes in people’s behavior, companies, and events 411

32.3.3 After the pandemic: Change in travel purpose and improvement in travel quality 412

32.3.4 Proposal for post-COVID-19: Measures for demand leveling and utilization of margin 413

32.4 Local transportation 413

32.4.1 Before the pandemic: Decline of local public transportation and aging population 413

32.4.2 During the pandemic: Major blow to transportation operators 414

32.4.3 After the pandemic: Accelerating decline of local transport 414

32.4.4 Proposal for post-COVID-19: Deeper involvement of public entities in public transportation projects 415

32.5 Entire transportation system 415

32.5.1 Before the pandemic: Information sharing and deficit fill 415

32.5.2 During the pandemic: Simultaneous crisis 416

32.5.3 After the pandemic: Cooperation among transport businesses to maintain the transportation network 416

32.5.4 Proposal for postCOVID-19: Integrated mobility services based on technical development, and introduction and large-scale implementation of new mobility services 416

32.6 Logistics 417

32.6.1 Before the pandemic: Problem of labor shortage and unconducive working environment 417

32.6.2 During the pandemic: Decrease in overall logistics volume and increase in courier services 417

32.6.3 After the pandemic: Increasing demand and worsening work environment 418

32.6.4 Proposal for post-COVID-19: Designing systems and developing technologies for more efficient logistics and higher productivity 418

32.7 Conclusion 418 References 419

33. The transport policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK

Greg Marsden, Iain Docherty, Jillian Anable, and Llinos Brown

33.1 COVID-19 in the UK 421

33.2 Travel trends 421

33.3 Working from home 424

33.4 Policy interventions 425

33.4.1 Active travel 425

33.4.2 Bus 425

33.4.3 Rail 426

33.5 Conclusions 426

33.5.1 Key findings 426

33.5.2 Policy recommendations 427

33.5.3 Research recommendations 427 References 428

34. Governance for post-COVID-19 carbon reduction: A case study of the transport sector

Junyi Zhang

34.1 Introduction 429

34.2 The carbon reduction identity in the transport sector 430

34.3 DIRECT approach 431

34.4 Seamless and integrated policymaking and implementation for carbon reduction in the transport sector: A “6-domain and 6-step” approach 432

34.5 Conclusion and challenges 439 Acknowledgments 439 References 439

35. Governance, COVID responses, and lessons on decision-making in uncertainty

Wijnand Veeneman

35.1 Introduction 441

35.2 What is governance and why does it matter in COVID times? 442

35.2.1 Governance as coordination through hierarchy, markets, and networks of stakeholders 442

35.2.2 Governance from most market regulation to a wider view 442

35.2.3 Governance as rulesets in the sociotechnical system of public transport 443

35.3 COVID responses and their effect of patronage 443

35.4 Governance and the rethinking of services after COVID 446

35.4.1 Governance and its effect on the decisions 447

35.4.2 First lessons from Amsterdam 447

35.5 Conclusion 448 35.6

Part VII Conclusions

36. Policy recommendations and future challenges

Junyi Zhang and Yoshitsugu Hayashi

36.1 Need for a true transformation of the postpandemic world 453

36.1.1 Infection risks and social distancing at early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic 453

36.1.2 Experts’ views about infection risks of COVID-19 during the use of public transport 453

36.1.3 Urgency of a postpandemic transformation 454

36.2 Pandemic response strategies: Zero-tolerance vs. with-virus 454

36.3 Pandemic-responsive local community 455

36.4 Pandemic-resilient contingency plan and transportation management 455 36.5 Transformation of transport policymaking

36.6 Resilient logistics and supply chains 456

36.6.1 Urban logistics 456

36.6.2 Shipping and ports 456

36.6.3 Freight transport 457

36.6.4 Air cargo transport 457

36.7 Pandemic-sensitive tourism and leisure policy 457

36.8 Planetary health-responsive recovery and ELSI

36.9 Future challenges

Contributors

Numbers in parenthesis indicate the pages on which the authors’ contributions begin.

Mukti Advani (275), Traffic Engineering and Transportation Planning (TTP) Area, CSIR—CRRI (CRRI), New Delhi, India

Kumar Amrit  (275), CSIR—National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, Mumbai, India

Jillian Anable  (421), Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom

Prasanta Kumar Bhuyan  (275), Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Rourkela, India

Llinos Brown  (421), Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom

Julien Brunel (331), SNCF Reseau, Saint Denis, France

Lucy Budd  (183), Leicester Castle Business School, De Montfort University, Leicester, United Kingdom

Federico Cavallaro  (143), Politecnico di Torino, Turin, Italy

Giovanni Circella  (191), University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, United States

Thayanne Gabryelle Medeiros Ciriaco (105), Department of Transportation Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, Brazil

Carolina Silva Costa  (105), Department of Transportation Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, Brazil

Leandro da Silva Correa  (261), Urban Studies, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Laetitia Dablanc (131), University Gustave Eiffel, LVMT, Marne la Vallée, France

Hongxiang Ding  (201), Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Japan

Iain Docherty  (421), Institute for Advanced Studies, University of Stirling, Stirling, United Kingdom

Ralf Elbert  (143), Technical University of Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany

Daocheng Fu  (311), School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China

Kun Gao  (349), Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden

Nitin Goyal  (275), CSIR—National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, Mumbai, India

Tatsuya Hanaoka (339), Social Systems Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan

Yu Hasegwa  (409), Mobility Innovation Collaborative Research Organization (UTmobI) & Advanced Mobility Research Center (ITS Center), Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Nurul Hassan  (275), Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Rourkela, India

Yoshitsugu Hayashi  (1, 225, 233, 293, 373, 453), WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force, Center for Sustainable Development and Global Smart City, Chubu University, Kasugai, Aichi, Japan

Joseph R. Huscroft  (47), North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC, United States

Stephen Ison  (183), Leicester Castle Business School, De Montfort University, Leicester, United Kingdom

Vidushi Jaya  (275), Human Factors and Applied Cognition Lab, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore, India

Sudarat Kamnerdsap (293), Mass Rapid Transit Authority of Thailand, Bangkok, Thailand

Jing Kang  (359), Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Japan

Hideyuki Kanoshima  (409), CORINS/TECRIS Center, JACIC (Japan Construction Information Center), Japan

Saori Kashima (25), Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan

Premjit Khanganba Sanjram  (275), Human Factors and Applied Cognition Lab, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Indore, India

Yasuko Hassall Kobayashi  (15), Ritsumeikan University, Kyoto, Japan

Shuangjin Li (37), Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Japan

Xiaopeng Li (349), Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, United States

Hussein Sinsuat Lidasan  (87), The University of the Philippines, Quezon City, Philippines

Feng Liu  (311), School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China

Rui Liu  (201, 321), Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Japan

Shuang Ma  (37), College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

Greg Marsden  (421), Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom

Hiroyoshi Morita  (225, 233), Nippon Engineering Consultants, Tokyo, Japan

Shinichiro Nakamura  (225, 233), Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan

Hitomi Nakanishi  (15), University of Canberra, Canberra, ACT, Australia

Wei-Shiuen Ng  (399), International Transport Forum, Paris, France

Takashi Oguchi  (409), Mobility Innovation Collaborative Research Organization (UTmobI) & Advanced Mobility Research Center (ITS Center), Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Magdalena Olczak  (399), International Transport Forum, Paris, France

S. Padma  (275), Traffic Engineering and Transportation Planning (TTP) Area, CSIR—CRRI (CRRI), New Delhi, India

Chetan Patel  (275), Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat, India

Jorge Ubirajara Pedreira Junior  (105), Department of Transportation Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, Brazil

Melissa Pedroso Moura  (399), International Transport Forum, Paris, France

Anthony Perl  (261), Urban Studies and Political Science, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, BC, Canada

Cira Souza Pitombo  (105), Department of Transportation Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, Brazil

Xiaobo Qu  (349), Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, Sweden

Madan B. Regmi  (383), Transport Division, United Nations ESCAP, Bangkok, Thailand

Antônio Nélson Rodrigues da Silva  (105), Department of Transportation Engineering, São Carlos School of Engineering, University of São Paulo, São Carlos, Brazil

Felix Roeper  (143), Technical University of Darmstadt, Darmstadt, Germany

Werner Rothengatter  (71), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany

Ritu Sharma  (275), Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat, India

Takeru Shibayama  (247), Institute of Transportation, TU Wien, Vienna, Austria

Ruchi Singhal  (275), Department of Civil Engineering, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat, India

Arti Roshan Soni  (275), CSIR—National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, Mumbai, India

Jaime Soza-Parra  (191), University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, United States

Daniel Sperling  (191), University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, United States

Yoshihiro Suda  (409), Mobility Innovation Collaborative Research Organization (UTmobI) & Advanced Mobility Research Center (ITS Center), Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Fengzhi Sun  (321), Shandong Normal University, Jinan, China

Tsuyoshi Takano (225, 233), Nippon Engineering Consultants, Tokyo; Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan

Chithira Unnikrishnan  (275), Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology, Rourkela, India

Thierry Vanelslander  (143, 153, 169), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium

Wijnand Veeneman (441), Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands

S. Velmurugan  (275), Traffic Engineering and Transportation Planning (TTP) Area, CSIR—CRRI (CRRI), New Delhi, India

Patrick Verhoeven (169), University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium

Varameth Vichiensan  (293), Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand

Suixin Wang  (121), School of Management, Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang, China

Yacan Wang (47), School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China

Wenchao Wu  (339), Social Science Division, Japan International Research Center for Agricultural Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan

Junyi Zhang  (1, 25, 37, 201, 321, 339, 359, 373, 383, 429, 453), WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force, Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan

Linghan Zhang  (321), School of Tourism Management, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, China

Runsen Zhang  (339), Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Japan

Zhao Zhang  (311), School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Beihang University, Beijing, China

Huiyu Zhou  (47), School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University, Beijing, China

Taoxing Zhu  (121), School of Management, Shijiazhuang Tiedao University, Shijiazhuang, China

Fuyo Jenny Yamamoto  (383), Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Japan

Recommendation message from the Honorary President of the Club of Rome

I recognize that the transport system is an essential infrastructure for our society today. This important system was suddenly involved in a problematique (a term given by the Club of Rome, which means ‘a cluster of intertwined global problems, be they economic, environmental, political or social’) of pandemic, which began at the end of 2019. Transport has contributed significantly to the rapid spread of COVID-19: for example, infection is far more likely on packed public transport, and international flights allow the disease to be passed on around the world within a matter of hours. Transport has been also a victim of the pandemic due to the drastic reductions in passenger numbers.

National and local governments are keen to identify best practice for dealing with these new challenges. Clearly, a firstclass investigation of this COVID-19 issue would be highly appreciated.

Curiosity and research led me to discover this excellent handbook covering the relationship between COVID-19 and transport. Transportation Amid Pandemics: Lessons Learned from COVID-19 will be published in 2022, which happens to be the year of the 50th anniversary of the first report from the Club of Rome, “The Limits to Growth.” This book includes evidence from all over the world, and offers policy recommendations from a large variety of perspectives.

This publication serves as a wonderful “bridge” between the Club of Rome (CoR) and the World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS); the latter is the world’s biggest academic network of transport experts, established in 1977 under Swiss law.

This bridge was created by my friend Professor Yoshitsugu Hayashi, who is a member of the CoR Executive Committee as well as Ex-WCTRS President, who found an outstanding partner, Professor Junyi Zhang, and also 79 voluntary researchers in the WCTRS in order to create this book.

I congratulate the editors and contributors, and recommend this exceptional book. I also look forward to further collaboration between the Club of Rome and the WCTRS to solve the “problematique” a term introduced by the Club of Rome during its early years.

Weizsäcker

Message from a bridging actor between WCTRS and the Club of Rome

Since the Spanish flu came to an end in 1920, more than 100 years have already passed. The year 2022 is also the 50th anniversary of the publication of The Limits to Growth (1972) (Meadows, Meadows, Randers, & Behrens, 1972) by the Club of Rome (The Club of Rome, n.d.), where human society was warned of the need to understand the importance of the totality of the complex world problematique: i.e., “the whole is more than the sum of its parts, that change in one element means change in the others” (p. 11). Since then, the problematique has been extended from scarcity of food and resources for meeting the exponentially growing world population to climate emergency and “excess capitalism” (e.g., excessive deregulation and liberalization of the economy, excessive resource consumption, excessive meat eating, excessive CO2 emissions, and excessive lending by the banking industry) (Von Weizsaecker & Wijkman, 2018). The COVID-19 pandemic, which suddenly appeared at the end of 2019, has caused tremendous problems involving complex mechanisms. This pandemic has become a new factor of the world problematique. While transport triggered infections by carrying viruses across cities and countries, it was also a victim in the sense that railways, buses, and airlines lost a lot of passengers and revenues.

The World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS) (WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society), n.d.), which is registered under Swiss law, is the only international society in transportation. It is a truly global network of transport professionals, with more than 1000 members from 67 countries, to advance research and exchange ideas in the transport sector. As Immediate Ex-President of WCTRS and Executive Committee Member of the Club of Rome, I thought that it was our duty to concentrate all knowledge of WCTRS experts to contribute to resolving this new problematique. Thus, in April 2020, the WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force was established, chaired by myself, with strong support from Tae Hoon Oum (President of WCTRS), Werner Rothengatter (WCTRS Emeritus member), and Greg Marsden (WCTRS Secretary General). Then, I got the very good idea of inviting Junyi Zhang as Cochair of the task force. He contributed valuable ideas for this book project and completed difficult communications with the authors under COVID-19 restrictions. These key persons jointly prepared the “WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force: Appeal” and “WCTRS Recommendations on COVID-19 Policy Decision,” which were sent to the governments in different countries and regions.

To accumulate scientific knowledge, the COVID-19 Task Force hosted the International e-Conference on Pandemics and Transport Policy (ICPT2020), the world’s first international conference on COVID-19 in the field of transport, from December 7 to 11, 2020. The conference provided valuable inputs to this book. The 36 chapters of this book provide valuable insights into preparations for future pandemics, and the efforts of all the authors are highly appreciated. More chapters were expected, but infection due to COVID-19 forced some promising authors to give up writing. Despite this, their efforts are also highly appreciated.

With regard to the future development of our planet, the Club of Rome has pointed out that unbalanced considerations of various issues will be a threat, which should be curbed urgently. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred, in part, as a consequence of unbalanced considerations between economic development and the protection of nature. Balance is the key concept for sustainability and resilience (Duerr, 2020). As the book reveals, the fight against the pandemic in different countries of the world lacks a globally accepted approach to pandemic policymaking. While this diversity is a symbol of the democracy of global governance, poor cross-country coordination, policymaking without well-established cross-sector

xxii Message from a bridging actor between WCTRS and the Club of Rome

collaboration, and a lack of scientific evidence from transdisciplinary research hindered the rapid control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Such failures should inform our preparations for future pandemics. This book collects not only such painful lessons but also rich wisdom based on scientifically sound evidence.

Yoshitsugu Hayashi Executive Committee Member, the Club of Rome President, the Japanese Association of the Club of Rome Immediate Ex-President, WCTRS Chair, WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force Distinguished Professor, Chubu University, Japan

References

Duerr, H.-P. (2020). Sustainable use of energy. In Y. Hayashi, et al. (Eds.), Balancing nature and civilization—Alternative sustainability perspectives from philosophy to practice Springer. Meadows, D. H., Meadows, D. L., Randers, J., & Behrens, W. W., III. (1972). The limits to growth. In New York Universe Books The Club of Rome. https://www.clubofrome.org/ Von Weizsäcker, E. U., & Wijkman, A. (2018). Come on!—Capitalism, short-termism, population and the destruction of the planet. Springer. WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society). https://wctrs-society.com/

Preface: The journey of this book project

Many pandemics have occurred in history, but in recent centuries, they have been occurring more frequently than before. Unfortunately, what we experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic shows us that human society has forgotten the lessons that should have been learned from history. Thus, history should be correctly recorded, while the lessons learned should be correctly transferred to and utilized for future generations.

The first case of a person infected with COVID-19 was reported in Japan on January 15, 2020. That person came from Wuhan, China, confirming that transport is not irrelevant to the spread of the virus. In March 2020, I established a section on COVID-19 on my lab’s website for releasing information about infections and policy measures as well as various issues caused by infections and policies, and at the end of March 2020, I implemented a retrospective life-oriented survey in Japan to ask respondents to recall how their life had changed from January to March 2020, in comparison with the same period in 2019. One day in late March 2020, Yoshitsugu Hayashi (nickname: Yoshi) phoned me about the establishment of a task force at the World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTRS). That phone call launched the journey of this book project.

The WCTRS president at that time, Tae Hoon Oum, agreed to the proposal of establishing a task force and consulted with his board members for a formal approval. Soon after the approval, key members of the task force communicated online many times under Tae’s leadership to release the first set of Recommendations on COVID-19 Policy Decisions to the global society. Between late April and mid-May 2020, the task force implemented a worldwide expert survey and released a report on the findings from the expert survey on SSRN (Elsevier, open access) to inform policymakers and researchers worldwide, which was later published in Transport Policy in January 2021 and selected as both a highly cited paper and a hot paper by Web of Science in July/August 2021. During the above process, I found significant research gaps in terms of COVID-19 policymaking methodologies and proposed a PASS (P: Prepare-Protect-Provide; A: Avoid-Adjust; S: Shift-Share; S: Substitute-Stop) approach, while Yoshi developed a mosquito/malarial-analogous transport policy model for COVID-19 responses. These two works are just a few of the many efforts made for understanding COVID-19 and to provide evidence for effective pandemic policymaking, based on data-supported observations and discussions with experts all over the world. Based on the findings and thoughts from our own works, we redoubled our efforts to encourage more and more transport researchers to perform research on COVID-19 through conferences, workshops, and seminars, etc. Later, the task force members (more than 60 members from more than 20 countries) actively communicated with each other and discussed various issues caused by the COVID-19 pandemic via various online meetings, based on their own observations. By August 2020, more than 20 reports (targeting major countries and research topics) were released, mostly on SSRN. Drawing on these efforts, the task force made two calls for COVID-19 papers: one on passenger transport and the other on freight transport, logistics, and supply chains, for inclusion in two special issues of Transport Policy, one of the top transport journals. Our efforts were not in vain. As of February 2022, Transport Policy has published the largest number of COVID-19 papers within transport-related journals, according to the Web of Science (Zhang, J., Hayashi, Y. (2022). Research Frontier of COVID-19 and passenger transport: A focus on policymaking. Transport Policy, 119, 78–88).

In the expectation that more and more COVID-19 studies and pandemic-control practices all over the world would be published, Yoshi and I agreed that it was extremely important to record what happened during the COVID-19 pandemic, what policy measures have been successful and unsuccessful (i.e., lessons learned from the pandemic), and how to prepare for future pandemics. Thus, soon after these calls, we submitted the proposal for this book project to Elsevier in October 2020, with the help of Fusun Ulengin, the coordinator of the WCTRS books published by Elsevier. Elsevier formally approved the book project in December 2020. At the same time, we chaired the first international conference on pandemics and transport, “International e-Conference on Pandemics and Transport Policy (ICPT2020),” which was successfully held from December 7 to 11, 2020.

The book contents are mainly policy-oriented, which present rich insights into controlling the current pandemic and preparing for future pandemics. This book attempts to answer key questions about COVID-19 and other pandemics in association with passenger and freight transport, logistics, and supply chains from cross-sectoral and transdisciplinary

perspectives, through extensive literature reviews (academic references, policy documents, etc.) and various case studies. Each chapter presents key messages, not only of research findings but also of policy recommendations. The book allows transport and policymakers to find evidence to support their decisions and solutions against pandemics in their local contexts. It helps researchers to identify and understand the state of the art in this field and important research challenges. Nonprofessionals can find evidence of how they can contribute to the fight against pandemics and live under the “new normal.” It can also work as a textbook for students to learn about how to tackle public health threats in the transport and logistics sector.

I would like to express my deepest appreciation to all 79 authors from about 20 countries for their invaluable contributions to the book. All chapters were successfully submitted to Elsevier in mid-December 2021. From the approval of this book project to the completion of writing all 36 chapters of the book took one year in total. Without the selfless efforts of all authors, whose daily lives were also seriously affected by the pandemic, this book project would not come true. The authors’ devoted contributions blew away all our hardships. Many thanks to the members of the WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force for their unwavering support and constructive suggestions on task force activities, including peer-reviewing all the chapters in this book. Special thanks to Werner Rothengatter, Greg Marsden, Saori Kashima, Runsen Zhang, Hiroyoshi Morita, Hiroyuki Takeshita, Shinichiro Nakamura, Akiko Murayama, and Tsuyoshi Takano, among others, who were always our strong supporters from the beginning of the task force. I would like to extend my sincere thanks to K.E. Seetha Ram for helping us to obtain financial support from the Asian Development Bank Institute. After submitting all chapters, the Elsevier team members worked very hard and professionally on editing the book contents. Their efforts are also highly appreciated. Many students in my laboratory actively contributed research on COVID-19, especially doctoral candidates Shuangjin Li, Hongxiang Ding, and Rui Liu, whose research topics were all changed to deal with COVID-19. Shuang Ma, a research fellow in my laboratory, coauthored key papers about COVID-19 with Shuangjin Li. Their hard work made my job easier, and I would like to acknowledge their efforts. Further thanks go to Fuyo Jenny Yamamoto, a former UNESCAP expert in the field of transport, for her professional English proofing of several chapters in this book. Financial support from RISTEX (JPMJRX20J6) and J-RAPID (JPMJJR2006) of the Japan Agency of Science and Technology is also gratefully acknowledged. My last warmest words of gratitude go to Yoshi: his many requests made me very busy, but his trust in me and his gentlemanly behavior and friendship allowed me to work comfortably. Finally, I would like to emphasize that the journey of this book will still continue after its publication. The book is expected to help the development of a more resilient and prosperous future.

Junyi Zhang

Co-chair, WCTRS COVID-19 Task Force

Professor, Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Japan Foreign fellow, The Engineering Academy of Japan, Tokyo, Japan

March 11, 2022

A thought-provoking day memorializing both the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake

COVID-19 and transport: Recording the history of fights against pandemics

aWCTRS COVID-19 Task Force, Mobilities and Urban Policy Lab, Graduate School of Advanced Science and Engineering, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan, bWCTRS COVID-19 Task Force, Center for Sustainable Development and Global Smart City, Chubu University, Kasugai, Aichi, Japan

1.1 Introduction

Since December 2019, human beings have been suffering from the spread of COVID-19, a novel coronavirus disease which has acted as an invisible invader in human society. What is COVID-19? It is not yet fully known. The question of when to stop updating information about the COVID-19 pandemic has been a challenge for all of the authors of this book. As of November 11, 2021, the total global infections confirmed were more than 269 million and total deaths were more than 5.3 million (Worldometers, 2021). Since about 1 year ago, both global infections and deaths have increased linearly, and there are no signs of the pandemic coming to an end. The COVID-19 pandemic has caused serious impacts on the whole global society, including the transport sector (Rothengatter et al., 2021; Zhang, Hayashi, & Frank, 2021). How to address the current pandemic has become the biggest challenge for the world since the Spanish flu of 1918, more than a century ago. Now in the 21st century, we are connected to each other internationally, as well as inside cities, by much more convenient transport systems than those of that time, which support high-level economic activities and citizens’ standard of living.

Looking at deaths, COVID-19 is the ninth most serious pandemic in history and the third most serious pandemic since the beginning of the 20th century (the first was the flu pandemic, with an estimated 17–50 million deaths in 1918–19, and the second was HIV/AIDS with an estimated 25–35 million deaths since 1981) (Visual Capitalist, 2021; World Economic Forum, 2021). Unfortunately, lessons from human history have not been well-learned. Historically, there have been more pandemics after the 20th century than in both the 18th and 19th centuries combined. After entering the 21st century, five major pandemics (severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, swine flu, Middle East respiratory syndrome, or MERS, Ebola, and COVID-19) occurred, while there were four (Spanish fu, Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, and HIV/AIDS) in the 20th century. Even now, HIV/AIDS and MERS still exist. Pandemics are expected to occur repeatedly in the future (WHO, 2021).

The transport sector is not unrelated to the risk of a pandemic (Zhang, Hayashi, Rothengatter, & Seetha Ram, 2022). As shown in Figure 1.1, once a person infected by COVID-19 travels to conduct activities in other places using any transport modes, he/she will become a carrier of virus from one place to another, like a mosquito carrying malaria that flies from person to person, and therefore, social distancing measures should be designed considering the whole process of the virus transmission (Hayashi & Takeshita, 2022). Making a trip may expose an uninfected person to the virus. Without transport, face-to-face contacts between persons at different physical locations would not be possible. In other words, the best way to control the pandemic is to shut down transport systems to cut the connections between persons at different locations. Thus, transport policy measures should be a core part of general pandemic strategy. Chapter

https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-323-99770-6.00023-5 Copyright

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