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THEIMPACTSOFCLIMATECHANGE
THEIMPACTSOF CLIMATECHANGE
AComprehensiveStudy ofPhysical,Biophysical,Social, andPoliticalIssues
Editedby
TREVOR M.LETCHER
LaurelHouse,StrattonontheFosse,Bath,UnitedKingdom
Elsevier
Radarweg29,POBox211,1000AEAmsterdam,Netherlands
TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UnitedKingdom 50HampshireStreet,5thFloor,Cambridge,MA02139,UnitedStates
Copyright©2021ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved.
Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronicor mechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,oranyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem,without permissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Detailsonhowtoseekpermission,furtherinformationaboutthe Publisher’spermissionspoliciesandourarrangementswithorganizationssuchastheCopyrightClearance CenterandtheCopyrightLicensingAgency,canbefoundatourwebsite: www.elsevier.com/permissions.
ThisbookandtheindividualcontributionscontainedinitareprotectedundercopyrightbythePublisher(other thanasmaybenotedherein).
Notices
Knowledgeandbestpracticeinthisfieldareconstantlychanging.Asnewresearchandexperiencebroadenour understanding,changesinresearchmethods,professionalpractices,ormedicaltreatmentmaybecome necessary.
Practitionersandresearchersmustalwaysrelyontheirownexperienceandknowledgeinevaluatingandusing anyinformation,methods,compounds,orexperimentsdescribedherein.Inusingsuchinformationormethods theyshouldbemindfuloftheirownsafetyandthesafetyofothers,includingpartiesforwhomtheyhavea professionalresponsibility.
Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neitherthePublishernortheauthors,contributors,oreditors,assumeanyliability foranyinjuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasamatterofproductsliability,negligenceorotherwise,or fromanyuseoroperationofanymethods,products,instructions,orideascontainedinthematerialherein.
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AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary ISBN:978-0-12-822373-4
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visitourwebsiteat https://www.elsevier.com/books-and-journals
Publisher: CandiceJanco
AcquisitionsEditor: MarisaLaFleur
EditorialProjectManager: NaomiRobertson
ProductionProjectManager: SruthiSatheesh
CoverDesigner: ChristianBilbow
TypesetbySPiGlobal,India
Contributorsix
Prefacexi
Contents
6Energyimpacts42
7Equityimpacts44
8Conclusion46
References47
A Introduction
1.Whydiscusstheimpactsofclimate change?
TrevorM.Letcher
1Introduction3
2Thegreenhouseeffect4
3Globalwarming6
4Feedbackmechanismstofurtherincreasethe heatingoftheplanet9
5Otherpossiblecausesofclimatechange9
6Urgentactionisrequired10
7Ourpresentsituation12
8Globalwarming,climatechange,andthenew pandemic—COVID-1914
9Howglobalwarmingaffectssociety15
10Conclusions15
References16
Furtherreading17
2.Impactsofclimatechangeoneconomies, ecosystems,energy,environments,and humanequity:Asystemsperspective
DanielP.Loucks
1Introduction20
2Climatechange20
3Ecosystemimpacts28
4Economicimpacts34
5Environmentalimpacts39
B
Physicalimpacts
3.Climatechangeandmeltingglaciers
MariaShahgedanova
1Introduction53
2MassbalanceofglaciersandicesheetsandGMSL change54
3Observingglacierchange56
4Observedchangesinthestateoficesheetsand glaciers60
5Contributiontoglobalmeansealevelchange73
6Synthesisandoutlook75
References76
4.Climatechangeandterrestrial biodiversity
RachelWarren,JeffPrice,andRhosannaJenkins
1Introduction86
2Majorshiftsinbiomes87
3Majorlossofspeciesgeographicalranges91
4Changesinphenology95
5Changesinextremeweather97
6Miscellaneousmechanisms99
7Geographicalimplications100
8Synthesis104
9Solutions105
References108
5.Effectofclimatechangeonmarine ecosystems
PhillipWilliamsonandValeriaA.Guinder
1Howclimatechangeaffectsmarineecosystems116
2Climatechangeimpactsonshallowcoastal ecosystems127
3Ecosystemimpactsinshelfseasandtheopen ocean140
4Conclusions152 References154
6.Naturaldisasterslinkedtoclimatechange
RaktimaDeyandSophieC.Lewis
1Introduction177
2Temperaturerelateddisasters179
3Bushfires181
4Sea-levelincrease183
5Extremerainfalleventsanddisasters184
6Compoundevents188
7Summaryandconcludingremarks189 References189
7.Climatechangeandmicrobes
StanleyMaloy
1Introduction195
2Does1–2° matter?196
3Generationofgreenhousegases196
4Alteredgeographicaldistributionofinsect vectors196
5Alteredprecipitation198
6Elevatedoceantemperature200
7Changesinbiodiversity200
8OneHealth200
9Take-homepoints202
Acknowledgments202 References202
Webreferences203
8.Effectsofclimatechangeonfood production(fishing)
HeikeK.Lotze,AndreaBryndum-Buchholz,andDanielG.Boyce
1Introduction205
2Biologicalchangesinmarineorganisms207
3Changesinspeciesdistributionand abundance209
4Changesinmarinefoodwebs212
5Changesinoceanecosystemproduction213
6Consequencesforfisheriesandseafood production217
7Challengesforfisheriesmanagementandocean governance220
8Marineconservationstrategiesforclimatechange mitigation222
Acknowledgments224 References224
9.Effectofclimatechangeonfood production(animalproducts)
HaoruiWuandFlorenceEtienne
1Introduction233
2Climatechangeandanimalfoodproductions235
3Animalproductionimpactsclimatechange238
4Effectofanimalproductionandclimatechangeon humanhealthandwell-being242
5Conclusion:Agreenfutureawaitseveryone!247 References247
10.Emergingtypologyandframingof climate-resilientagricultureinSouthAsia
RajeshS.Kumar,ShilpiKundu,BishwajitKundu,N.K.Binu,and M.Shaji
1Introduction256
2Data,method,andanalysis258
3Resultsanddiscussion259
4Conclusionsandsuggestions278 References279
C
Socialimpacts
11.Socialissuesrelatedtoclimatechange andfoodproduction(crops)
ThandiF.Khumalo
1Introduction291
2Theimpactofclimatechangeonagriculturein SouthernAfrica292
3Botswana293
4Eswatini295
5Lesotho296
6Malawi298
7Mozambique299
8RepublicofSouthAfrica301
9Zambia302
10Zimbabwe303
11Discussion304
12Conclusion308
References309
Furtherreading311
12.Climatechangeandworldpopulation
JaneO’Sullivan
1Introduction313
2Thehumanpopulationinthe21stcentury314
3Howwillclimatechangeaffectdemography?325
4Demographicinfluencesonvulnerabilitytoclimate changeimpacts333
5Theinfluenceofpopulationchangeonclimate changeanditsmitigation337
6Conclusions341 References342
13.Assessingthesocialandeconomic impactsofsea-levelriseataglobalscale— Stateofknowledgeandchallenges
A.T.Vafeidis,C.Wolff,andS.Santamaria-Aguilar
1Introduction351
2Globalvulnerability,impactandriskassessments— Methodsanddata354
3Resultsofimpactstudies355
4Conclusionsandwaysforward360 References361
14.Societaladaptationtoclimatechange
JulieL.Drolet
1Adaptationtoclimatechange365
2Socialdevelopment367
3Indigenousknowledgesystemsandpractices367
4Adaptationandmitigation368
5Impactsofclimatechange368
6Extremeweatherevents368
7Vulnerabilitytoclimaterisks370
8Neoliberalismandclimatedenial373
9Environmentalandclimatejustice374
10Newvisionof“development”374
11Transformativechange375
12Conclusion375 References376
15.Managingurbanclimatechangerisks: Prospectsforusinggreeninfrastructureto increaseurbanresiliencetofloods
JulianaReuJunqueira,SilviaSerrao-Neumann,andIainWhite
1Introduction379
2Thepotentialofgreeninfrastructureforincreasing urbanresiliencetofloods381
3Barrierstoincorporatinggreeninfrastructureinto urbanplanning387 4Goingforward388
5Conclusion390 References391
16.Effectofclimatechangeonthe insurancesector
AdamD.Krauss
1Introduction397
2Climatechangescience—Thebasics398 3Climatechangedataandaccountability400 4Climatechangelitigation407
5Climatechangedamages415
6Theinsurancecoverageimplicationsofclimate change420
7Insurancemarketreactionandpreparedness431 8Closingthoughts434
17.Gametheoryandclimatechange
DavidMond
1Introduction437
2Modelgamesandclimatechange439 References451
18.Urbanlifeandclimatechange
TobiasEmilsson
1Introduction453
2Urbanclimate454
3Urbanclimateandwater456
4Mitigatingthenegativeeffectsofclimate change457
5Conclusion459 References459
D
Politicalimpacts
19.Securityimplicationsofclimatechange: Theclimate-conflictnexus
ElisabethLioRosvold
1Introduction465
2Definingtheconcepts466
3Theevolutionoftheclimate-conflictnexus468
4Thewayahead:Pastchangepredictingfuture uncertainties473 References474
20.Climatechangegovernance: Respondingtoanexistentialcrisis
HeikeSchroederandYukaKobayashi
1Introduction479
2Whatisgovernanceinthecontextofclimate change?480
3Multilevelgovernanceofclimatechange481
4Actorsandactornetworks482
5Rule-makingsystems484
6Formalandinformalrules485
7Conclusion486 References486 Furtherreading489
21.Justiceandclimatechange
SteveVanderheiden
1Introduction491
2Justiceandtheclimatetreaty492
3Mitigation,equity,andcarbonbudgets494
4Adaptationanddifferentiatedresponsibility496
5Climatechange,justice,andhumanrights497
6Conclusion:Puttingclimatejusticeinto practice499 References500
22.Climatechangeandthelaw
JohnF.McEldowney
1Introduction503
2Climatechangelawandregulation504
3Climatechangeandagriculture508
4Climatechangeandfisheries509
5Climatechangeandhousing510
6Climatechangeandaviation510
7Climatechangeandshipping512
8Climatejustice513
9Climatechangelitigation513
10Conclusions518
References518
23.Theethicsofmeasuringclimatechange impacts
KianMintz-Woo
1Introduction521
2Factualassumptions522
3Moralassumptions526 4Conclusion532
References533
24.Climatechangeandrefugees
JohnF.McEldowneyandJulieL.Drolet
1Climaterefugeesandthelaw537
2ClimaterefugeesandtheEuropeanUnion538
3TheUnitedNation’sInternationalOrganization forMigration540
4Forceddisplacement541
5Environmentalmigration541
6Plannedrelocation542
7Climatechangeandconflict542
8Canada’simmigrationandrefugeepolicy543
9Climatejustice543
10Conclusions544
References544
Index547
Contributors
N.K.Binu CollegeofForestry,Kerala AgriculturalUniversity,Thrissur,India
DanielG.Boyce OceanFrontierInstitute, DalhousieUniversity,Halifax,NS,Canada
AndreaBryndum-Buchholz Departmentof Biology,DalhousieUniversity,Halifax,NS, Canada
RaktimaDey FennerSchoolofEnvironment andSociety,AustralianNationalUniversity, Canberra,ACT,Australia
JulieL.Drolet FacultyofSocialWork, UniversityofCalgary,Edmonton,AB,Canada
TobiasEmilsson DepartmentofLandscape Architecture,PlanningandManagement, SwedishUniversityofAgriculturalSciences, Alnarp,Sweden
FlorenceEtienne IndependentResearcher, Vancouver,BC,Canada
ValeriaA.Guinder ArgentineInstituteof Oceanography,NationalScientificand TechnicalResearchCouncil,Bahı´aBlanca, Argentina
RhosannaJenkins TyndallCentreforClimate ChangeResearch,UniversityofEastAnglia, Norwich,UnitedKingdom
ThandiF.Khumalo Departmentof SociologyandSocialWork,Universityof Eswatini,KwaluseniCampus,Kwaluseni, Eswatini
YukaKobayashi DepartmentofPoliticsand InternationalStudies,SOAS,London,United Kingdom
AdamD.Krauss TraubLiebermanStraus& ShrewsberryLLP,Hawthorne,NY,UnitedStates
RajeshS.Kumar IndianForestService(IFS), NewDelhi,India
BishwajitKundu BangladeshJuteResearch Institute,Dhaka,Bangladesh
ShilpiKundu CitiesResearchInstitute&School ofEnvironmentandScience,GriffithUniversity, Brisbane,QLD,Australia;Sher-e-Bangla AgriculturalUniversity,Dhaka,Bangladesh
TrevorM.Letcher LaurelHouse,Strattononthe Fosse,Bath,UnitedKingdom
SophieC.Lewis SchoolofScience,Universityof NewSouthWales,Canberra,ACT,Australia
HeikeK.Lotze DepartmentofBiology, DalhousieUniversity,Halifax,NS,Canada
DanielP.Loucks CornellUniversity,Ithaca, NY,UnitedStates
StanleyMaloy SanDiegoStateUniversity, SanDiego,CA,UnitedStates
JohnF.McEldowney SchoolofLaw,University ofWarwick,Coventry,UnitedKingdom
KianMintz-Woo UniversityCenterforHuman ValuesandPrincetonSchoolofPublicand InternationalAffairs,PrincetonUniversity, Princeton,NJ,UnitedStates;Departmentof PhilosophyandEnvironmentalResearch Institute,UniversityCollegeCork,Cork, Ireland
DavidMond MathematicsInstitute,University ofWarwick,Coventry,UnitedKingdom
JaneO’Sullivan SchoolofAgricultureandFood Sciences,UniversityofQueensland,StLucia Campus,Brisbane,QLD,Australia
JeffPrice TyndallCentreforClimateChange Research,UniversityofEastAnglia,Norwich, UnitedKingdom
JulianaReuJunqueira EnvironmentalPlanning Programme,SchoolofSocialSciences, UniversityofWaikato,Hamilton,NewZealand
Contributors
ElisabethLioRosvold DepartmentofPeaceand ConflictResearch,UppsalaUniversity, Uppsala;DepartmentofEconomicHistory andInternationalRelations,Stockholm University,Stockholm,Sweden
S.Santamaria-Aguilar CoastalRisksandSeaLevelRiseResearchGroup,Instituteof Geography,Christian-AlbrechtsUniversity, Kiel,Germany
HeikeSchroeder SchoolofInternational Development;TyndallCentreforClimate ChangeResearch,UniversityofEastAnglia, Norwich,UnitedKingdom
SilviaSerrao-Neumann EnvironmentalPlanningProgramme,SchoolofSocialSciences, UniversityofWaikato,Hamilton,New Zealand;CitiesResearchInstitute,Griffith University,Brisbane,QLD,Australia
MariaShahgedanova DepartmentofGeographyandEnvironmentalSciences,University ofReading,Reading,UnitedKingdom
M.Shaji CollegeofForestry,KeralaAgriculturalUniversity,Thrissur,India
A.T.Vafeidis CoastalRisksandSea-LevelRise ResearchGroup,InstituteofGeography, Christian-AlbrechtsUniversity,Kiel, Germany
SteveVanderheiden DepartmentofPolitical Science,UniversityofColoradoatBoulder, Colorado,CO,UnitedStates
RachelWarren TyndallCentreforClimate ChangeResearch,UniversityofEastAnglia, Norwich,UnitedKingdom
IainWhite EnvironmentalPlanning Programme,SchoolofSocialSciences, UniversityofWaikato,Hamilton,New Zealand
PhillipWilliamson UniversityofEastAnglia, Norwich,UnitedKingdom
C.Wolff CoastalRisksandSea-LevelRise ResearchGroup,InstituteofGeography, Christian-AlbrechtsUniversity,Kiel, Germany
HaoruiWu SchoolofSocialWork,Dalhousie University,Halifax,NS,Canada
Preface
Theevidencethatourclimateiswarming isoverwhelming.Thisevidencecomesnot onlyfromlandandseasurfacetemperature recordsbutalsofromindicatorssuchasthe coverageofArcticseaice—allofwhich,and muchmore,isdiscussedinthisbookandin relatedbooks: ClimateChange3rdedition (Letcher,2020)and ManagingGlobalWarming (Letcher,2019).Mostscientistsintheworld nowacceptthatanthropogenicactivities andspecificallytheemissionsofgreenhouse gasesareresponsibleforthemajorpartof theobservedwarming.May9,2013,wasan auspiciousdayforthewarmingoftheplanet, whenitwasreportedbyboththeNational OceanicandAtmosphericAdministration (NOAA)andtheScrippsInstituteofOceanographythatthedailymeanconcentration ofCO2 intheatmosphereatMaunaLoalaboratoryexceeded400ppm(400 μmolmol 1 or 400 10 6)forthefirsttimeinmillionsof years.InJune2020,itwas417ppm,withthe rateofincreaseacceleratingeachyear.The fundamentalaimofthisbookistoalertthe publictotheseimpactssothatadaptations canbemadetoaworldofincreasingglobal temperature.Itisalsoaclarioncalltodo somethingaboutglobalwarmingandurgentlyreduceourdependenceonfossilfuels andembracerenewableformsofenergy.This bookfocusesmainlyonthesocialandpoliticalimpactsofclimatechange.
Weareregularlybombardedinthe mediabytheevidenceofthephysicalimpactsofclimatechange;hurricanes,tornadoes,flooding,wash-aways,recordhigh temperatures,meltingseaice,glaciersand
icesheets,unpredictedandexceptional weatherpatterns,acidicoceans,dyingcoral beds,andfastincreasingconcentrationsof CO2 intheatmosphere.Itismostlikelythat thetargetofkeepingglobaltemperaturesbelow1.5°Cabovethepreindustrialagewillbe breachedandthatwewillhavetoaccepta muchwarmerworldandallthatmeans.
Projectionsofourglobalwarmingindicate thatthetemperaturewillexceedthe2°C globalaverageregardedbymanyscientists astheupperlimitintemperaturewithinthe next50years.Ifwedonottakeactiontohalt thisriseintemperature,wemustexpectthe seriousconsequencesofextremeweather: droughts,floods,winds,andstorms.The bookisaurgentappealtohumanstotakeimmediateactiontoreducetheamountofCO2 thatwearepumpingintotheatmosphere, whicharguablycanbestbeaccomplished byreducingourdependencyonfossilfuels. Wemuststrivetostopburningcoalandoil inourpowerstationswiththeultimateaim ofkeepingmostofthefossilfuelinthe groundandfindnew,renewablewaysof producingelectricityandpropellingour vehicles.
Thebookcontains24chaptersandisdividedinto4sections:
IMPACTS •SOCIALIMPACTS •POLITICALIMPACTS
Theaudiencewehopetoreachare:policy makersinlocalandcentralgovernments;
students,teachers,researchers,professors, scientists,engineers,andmanagersworking infieldsrelatedtoclimatechangeandfuture energyoptions;editorsandnewspaperreportersresponsibleforinformingthepublic; andthegeneralpublicwhoneedtobeaware oftheimpendingdisastersthatawarmer Earthwillbring.Anintroductionisprovided atthebeginningofeachchapterforthoseinterestedinabriefsynopsis,andcopiousreferencesareprovidedforthosewishingto studyeachchaptertopicingreaterdetail.
Manyoftheauthorswerenotinvolvedin recentassessmentsoftheIPCC,andhere theypresentfreshevaluationsoftheevidencetestifyingtoaproblemthatwasdescribedbySirDavidKingasthemost severecalamityourcivilizationhasyetto face(David,2008).
TheIPCCassessmentshaveproducedtwo basicconclusions:firstly,thatthecurrentclimatechangesareunequivocal,andsecondly, thatthisislargelybecauseoftheemissionof greenhousegasesresultingfromhumanactivity.Thisbookreinforcesthesetwoconclusionsandthechapterson“Indicatorsof ClimateChange”andonthe“Possible CausesofClimateChange”areparticularly relevant.Furthermore,thesectionon “ModelingofClimateChange”furthersupportstheseconclusionsthroughsimulations ofpastclimatechangesandprojectionsoffutureclimate.
TheInternationalSystemofQuantities(SI units)hasbeenusedthroughoutthebook, andwherenecessaryotherunitsaregiven inparentheses.Furthermore,theauthors haverigorouslyadheredtotheIUPACnotationandspellingofphysicalquantities.
Thisbookhastheadvantagethatthechaptershaveeachbeenwrittenbyworld-class expertsworkingintheirrespectivefields. Asaresult,thisvolumepresentsabalanced pictureacrossthewholespectrumofclimate change.Furthermore,theauthorsare fromboththedevelopinganddeveloped countries,thusgivingaworldwideperspectiveofloomingclimaticproblems.The 12countriesrepresentedare:Australia, Bangladesh,Canada,Germany,Ireland,India, NewZealand,SouthAfrica,Swaziland, Sweden,TheUnitedKingdom,andthe UnitedStatesofAmerica.
Thesuccessofthebookultimatelyrests withthe34authorsandco-authors.Aseditor,Iwouldliketothankallofthemfortheir cooperationandtheirhighlyvalued,willing, andenthusiasticcontributions.Iwouldalso liketothankmywifeforherpatiencewhile Iwroteandeditedthisvolume.Finally,my thanksareduetoNaomiRobertsonof Elsevierwhoseexpertisesteeredthisbook toitspublication.
TrevorM.Letcher LaurelHouse,StrattonontheFosse, Bath,UnitedKingdom
References
David,K.S.,2008.In:Letcher,T.M.(Ed.),Forewordto FutureEnergy:Improved,SustainableandCleanOptionsforOurPlanet,firsted.Elsevier,Oxford,ISBN: 978-0-08-054808-1.
Letcher,T.M.(Ed.),2020.ClimateChange:Observed ImpactsonPlanetEarth,thirded.Elsevier, NewYork,USA,ISBN:978-0-12-821575-3.
Letcher,T.M.(Ed.),2019.ManagingGlobalWarming: AnInterfaceofTechnicalandHumanIssues. Elsevier,Cambridge,MA,USA,ISBN:978-0-12814104-5.
SECTIONA
Introduction
TrevorM.Letcher
Theworldisenteringanunprecedentedtimeofglobalwarmingwhichisaffectingourclimateonwhichwedependforourveryexistence.Globalwarmingiscausingchangesinrain andsnowpatterns;risingsealevels;increasedseverityandfrequencyofdroughts,wildfires, storms,tornadoes,andhurricanes;hightemperaturesandheatwavesandchangestooursocialfabricandpoliticalstructures.Globalwarmingisthemostimportantcalamitouschange ourcivilizationhaseverhadtoface.Inanotherpublication ClimateChange2ndedition (Letcher,2015),thephysicalandbiologicaleffectsofrisingglobaltemperatureswere discussedbutlittlewasmadeoftheeffectsonsocietyandonhumanlife.Thisbookputsthat toright.Theseimpactswhicharenowblatantlyobviousbecomemoreandmoreimportant
witheachpassingyearandarepoisedtochangeourlivesandthoseofourchildrenandtheir childrenforever.Wemustplanourfuturewiththesechangesinmind.Thisisthe raisond’etre forthisvolume.
Beforereadingthechaptersinthisbook,itisimportantthatwelookattheoriginsandthe physicsandchemistryofglobalwarmingandletthesciencetellusjusthowseriousaposition ourecosystemandoursocietyisin.Thetemperatureandclimateofourplanethasbeenmore orlessconstantforthebestpartofamillionyearsanditisunderthisregimeofclimatethat ourecosystemandindeedhumanlifeevolved.Anysignificantdeviationfromthisequilibriumwillhaveadevastatingeffectonboththeecosystemandonhumanlife.Wearefast reachingthisstage.
Thefundamentalmechanismleadingtothewarmingofourplanetisthegreenhouseeffect. Thisinitialwarmingeffectisfollowedbycertainfeedbackmechanisms(e.g.,evaporationof waterfromtheoceans,thereductioninalbedoeffectonpolaricesheets)whichexacerbates thesituationleadingtofurtherglobalwarmingandperhaps,inthenottoodistantfuture,a run-a-wayglobalwarmingcatastrophe.Understandingthecausesofglobalwarmingandthe presentsituationgivereaderabackgroundtoappreciatingthedifferentimpactsclimate changeishavingonoursociety.Thismustindeededucateandgalvanizethereadertodo somethingaboutreducingtheonsetofacatastrophiccollapseofoursocietyandtheway welive.
2Thegreenhouseeffect
MuchofwhatfollowsinthissectionhasbeendiscussedinChapter1of ManagingGlobal Warming (Letcher,2019).Itispertinenttoincludeithereatthebeginningof TheImpactsof ClimateChange. Theconceptofthegreenhouseeffectgoesbacktothe1820s,whenJosephFouriersuggestedthatsomecomponentoftheearth’satmospherewasresponsibleforthetemperatureatthesurfaceoftheearth.Hewasresearchingtheoriginsofancientglaciersandthe icesheetsthatoncecoveredmuchofEurope(Fourier,1824).Decadeslater,Tyndallfollowed uptheFourier’ssuggestion,andusedanapparatusdesignedbyMacedonioMellonitoshow thatCO2 wasabletoabsorbamuchgreateramountofheatthanothergases.Thisfittedin withFourier’sconceptandpointedtoCO2 asthecomponentintheatmospherethatFourier waslookingfor.TheMelloniapparatuswascalledathermomultiplier,andwasreportedin 1831(NobiliandMelloni,1831; Sella,2018).Tyndall’sresultswerepublishedinreferences (Tyndall,1861,1863).Asaresult,TyndallcanbenamedasthediscovereroftheCO2 greenhousegaseffect.
LinkingCO2 intheatmospheretotheburningoffossilfuelswastobethelastlinkinthe chaininunderstandingthereasonsfortheiceagesandalsoourownclimatechange.Inthe 1890s,SvanteArrhenius,anelectrochemist,calculatedthatbyreducingtheamountofCO2 in theatmospherebyhalf,thetemperatureofEuropewouldbeloweredbyabout4–5°C.This wouldbringitinlinewithiceagetemperatures.Thisideawouldonlyanswerthequestionof whytheiceageformedandthenretreated,iftherewerelargechangesinatmospheric compositionandinparticular,changesinCO2 concentration.Atmuchthesametime,also inSweden,ageologist,ArvidH € ogbom,hadestimatedthatCO2 fromvolcaniceruptions,
togetherwiththeoceanuptakeofCO2,couldexplainhowtheCO2 concentrationsinthe atmospherecouldchangeandhenceprovidesomeexplanationfortheiceages.Alongthe wayHogbomstumbledonastrangeandnewideathattheCO2 emittedfromindustrialcoal burningfactoriesmightinfluencetheatmosphericCO2 concentration.Hedidindeedfindthat humanactivitieswerecontributingCO2 totheatmosphereataratecomparabletothenatural geochemicalprocesses.Theincreasewassmallcomparedtowhatwasalreadyintheatmosphere,butifcontinued,itwouldinfluencetheclimate.Arrheniustookupthisconcept,and hiscalculationsarepublished(Arrhenius,1896).Arrheniusconcludedthattheemissions fromhumanindustrymightsomedaybringonglobalwarming.Hence,Arrhenius’sname isforeverlinkedtothegreenhousetheoryofglobalwarming.However,thanksmustalso gotothosewhopavedtheway—Fourier,Melloni,Tyndall,H € ogbom,andprobablymany others.
Arrhenius’scalculationswereatfirstdismissedasunimportantoratworstfaulty. AsimilarfatewasmetbyG.SCallendarwho,in1938,madethepointthatCO2 levelswere indeedclimbing(https://www.rmets.org/sites/default/files/qjcallender38.pdf).Itwas onlyinthe1960s,afterCDKeelingmeasuredtheCO2 concentrationintheatmosphere andshowedthatitwasrisingrapidly,thatscientistswokeuptothefactthatglobalwarming wasrealandthatanthropogenicactivitywastoblame.
WatervaporisanevenmoreeffectivegreenhousegasthanCO2.Furthermore,itsconcentrationintheatmosphereisverymuchhigherthanthatofCO2 (oftheorderofahundred timeshigher),andH2Ocontributesover60%oftheglobalwarmingeffect.Theamountof watervaporintheatmosphereiscontrolledbythetemperature.AnincreaseintheCO2 concentrationintheatmosphereresultsinarelativelysmallincreaseoftheglobaltemperature butthatchangeisenoughtoincreasetheamountofwatervaporintheair,throughevaporationfromtheoceans.Itisthisfeedbackmechanismthathasthegreatestinfluenceonglobal temperature.Inasense,paradoxically,theconcentrationofCO2 actsasaregulatorforthe amountofwatervaporintheatmosphereandisthusthedeterminingfactorintheequilibriumtemperatureoftheearth.WithoutCO2 intheatmosphere,thetemperatureoftheearth wouldbeverymuchcoolerthanitistoday;infact,33°Ccooler.
Theamountofsolarenergyshiningontheearth(withwavelengthsrangingfrom0.3to 5 μm)isvast.ItheatsouratmosphereandeverythingontheEarthandprovidestheenergy forourclimateandecosystem.Atnight,muchofthisheatenergyisradiatedbackintospace butatdifferentwavelengths,whichareintheinfraredrangefrom4to50 μm(earthguide. ucsd.edu/virtualmuseum/climatechange1/02_3.shtml).Thefrequenciesoftheheatradiatingfromabodyisdependentofthetemperatureofthebody(Planck’sLawofblackbodyradiation).Thisenergy,leavingtheEarth,heatsthegreenhousegasmolecules(suchasH2O, CO2,CH4,etc.)intheatmosphere.Theexplanationisasfollows:usingCO2 andH2Oasexamples,thisheatingprocesstakesplacebecausetheradiatedIRfrequencyisinsync(resonates)withthenaturalfrequencyofthecarbon-oxygenbondofCO2 (4.26 μmbeingthe asymmetricstretchingvibrationmodeand14.99 μmbeingthebendingvibrationmode) andtheoxygen-hydrogenbondofH2O.Theincreasedvibrationofthebondseffectivelyheats theCO2 andH2Omolecules.Theseheatedmoleculesthenpasstheheattotheothermolecules intheatmosphere(N2,O2)andthiskeepstheearthatanequitabletemperature.Thevibrating frequenciesoftheO ObondinoxygenandtheN Nbondinnitrogenmoleculesarevery
differentfromtheradiationfrequenciesandsoareunaffectedbytheradiationleavingthe Earthatnight.
3Globalwarming
ThescientificevidencethatglobalwarmingislargelybecauseoftherisingCO2 levelsinthe atmosphereisoverwhelmingand,furthermore,thattherisingCO2 concentrationisbecause ofhumanactivities.Everyscientificsocietyandeveryresearchorganizationworkinginthe fieldofclimatechangeacceptsthisview.TheatmosphericCO2 concentrationhasincreased from280ppm(280ppmor280moleculespermillionmolecules)(https://link.springer.com/ article/10.1007/BF02423528)beforetheindustrialrevolutionto417ppm(observedatMauna LoaObservatoryonMay2020)(https://www.co2.earth/daily-co2),anditisthisincreaseof almost50%thathastriggeredthepresentincreaseinglobaltemperature.
ThetotalamountofCO2 intheatmosphereanditsconcentrationvaluearethemostdependablemeasurementswehavefortheprogressofglobalwarming.In1960,the rate ofincreaseofCO2 (asmeasuredatMaunaLoa,inHawaii)waslessthan1ppmperyear.Itisnow 2.4ppmperyear(https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/BF02423528).Itisthisrateof changethatisthebestindicatorofanyprogresswearemakinginreducingglobalwarming. Atthemomentthereisnosignthatthisishappening,infactthereverseistrue.Evenifwe stoppedburningfossilfuel,theCO2 levelswilltakealongtimetodecreaseasthelifetimeof CO2 intheupperatmosphereisoftheorderofhundredsofyears.
ThemostcompellingevidencethattheincreaseinCO2 isthemostlikelycauseofglobal warmingcanbeseenintherelatedgraphsofCO2 concentrationintheatmosphereand theglobalaveragetemperatureasfunctionsoftimeoverthepastmanydecades(see Figs. 1and2).TheCO2 increaseismirroredbyanincreaseintherelativeincreaseinaverageglobal temperaturesoverthepast60years.
Aquestionwhichneedsansweringisthis:weknowthattheCO2 levelintheatmosphereis risingsteadily:butistheCO2 increasebecauseofhumanactivity?Theevidencethatitisindeedbecauseofhumanactivityisbasedontherelativeratiosofcarbonisotopes.Therelative amountof 13Cintheatmospherehasbeendecliningandthatisbecausetheratioof 13Cin fossilfuel-derivedCO2 issignificantlylowerthattheCO2 producedfrompresent-day decayingplants(http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/how-do-weknow-that-recent-cosub2sub-increases-are-due-to-human-activities-updated/).
Fromthepropertiesofeachofthegreenhousegases(suchasthewavelengthsofenergy), scientistscancalculatehowmuchofeachgascontributestoglobalwarming.Theresultsshow thatCO2 isresponsibleforabout20%oftheearth’sgreenhouseeffect,watervaporbetween 60%and80%(https://www.acs.org/content/acs/en/climatescience/.../its-water-vapornot-the-co2.html or https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/vapor_warming.html). Itis,however,CO2 thatisthedriverandtriggerofglobalwarming.Therestiscausedbyminorgreenhousegasessuchasmethaneandchlorinatedhydrocarbons.TherelativeconcentrationsofthemajorgreenhousegasesemittedbyhumanactivityintheUSAare:CO2 81%;CH4 10%,andN2O7%(https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhousegases).
FIG.1 TheincreaseofCO2 concentrationoverthepast60years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve Datafrom Dr.PieterTans,NOAA/ESRLandDr.RalphKeeling,ScrippsInstitutionofOceanography.
ItisperhapsofinteresttonotethatitisnotpossibletoobtainabsoluteproofthatitisCO2 whichislargelyresponsibleforglobalwarmingbecausewecannotdothedefinitiveexperimentofsuddenlystoppingtheuseoffossilfuels.Andevenifwecoulddothisexperimentit wouldtakedecadestoobtainadefiniteconclusionbecauseofthelong-lifeCO2 hasinthe atmosphere(https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-dat).
MostoftheanthropogenicCO2 enteringtheatmospherecomesfromfossilfuels.Therelativefractionofenergyproducedbyfossilfuelshasremainedatover86%overthepastdecadeasisillustratedbyworldwideprimaryenergyconsumptionlistedin Table1.However, thequantityoffossilfuelextractedfromtheearthhasincreasedsignificantlyoverthepast 11years,asseenin Table2.ThisisreflectedinthesteadilyincreasingamountofCO2 entering theatmosphere.However,between2015and2016,worldoilproductionincreasedbyonly
FIG.2 Therelativeincreaseintheworld’saveragesurfaceairtemperaturefrom1880to2009. Originaldataproduced byASA’sGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies(http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/).
TABLE1 Worldwideprimaryenergyconsumptionpercentagesfrom2005 to2015(https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/WorldEnergy-Resources-Full-report-2016.10.03.pdf).
TABLE2 Thequantitiesofoil,coal,andnaturalgasminedpumpedoverthedecade2005–15.
Oilvolume/(106 barrels)perday(https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energyeconomics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/oil/oil-production.html)
Coal/(106 toilequivalent)peryear(https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energyeconomics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/coal/coal-production.html)
NaturalGas(109 m3)peryear(https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energyeconomics/statistical-review-of-world-energy/natural-gas/natural-gas-production.html)
81,90883,25192,150
303936333656
277331923551
0.4%, worldcoalproductionfellby6.2%,andnaturalgasincreasedbyonly0.3%.Thisisthe firstsignthatfossilfuelusageisslowingdown.
TheGlobalCarbonProject(GCP)(http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/)hasreported thatemissionsin2015fromburningfossilfuelsandalsofromindustry(especiallycement production)accountfor91%CO2 causedbyhumanactivitywith9%fromlandusechanges. In2015,theGCPhasreportedthat9.9 109 tofcarbonintheformofCO2 fromburningfossil fuelsenteredtheatmosphere.Nevertheless,theGCPfeltthatthereweresignsthattheemissionofCO2 fromhumanactivitywasindeedshowingsignsofpeaking.
4Feedbackmechanismstofurtherincreasetheheatingoftheplanet
TherearemanyCO2 feedbackmechanismsatplayandfiveofthemaresummarizedbelow.
Thewatervaporfeedbackmechanismhasbeendiscussedaboveanditisthisfeedback mechanismthathasthegreatestinfluenceonglobaltemperature.
Themeltingoficecontributestoanotherfeedbackmechanism.Whenicemelts,landor openwatertakesitsplace.Bothlandandopenwaterareonaveragelessreflectivethan iceandthusabsorbmoresolarradiation.Thiscausesmorewarming,whichinturncauses moremelting,andthiscyclecontinues.
TheoceansareastorehouseforCO2 buttheamountitstoresislimitedbythesolubilityof CO2 inseawater.Thissolubilityisdependentonthetemperature.Globalwarmingresultsina warmerseaandaloweringoftheCO2 solubility,resultinginsomeCO2,leavingtheoceans andenteringtheatmosphere,whichinturnincreasesglobalwarmingandsoon
Anotherfeedbackmechanismisatplayinthepeatbogsandpermafrostregionsofthe world,suchasinSiberiaandinGreenland.Risingglobaltemperaturesaremeltingthepermafrostandwillintimereleasevastquantitiesofmethanegas(CH4).Thisgasisover25times moreeffectivethanCO2 asagreenhousegas.
Yetanotherfeedbackmechanisminvolvesmethaneclathrates,aformofwatericethatcontainsmethanewithinitscrystallinestructure.Extremelylargedepositsofithavebeenfound underthesedimentsonoceanfloors.Anincreaseintemperaturebreaksthecrystalstructure releasingthecagedmethane.Risingseatemperaturescouldcauseasuddenreleaseofvast amountsofmethanefromsuchclathratesresultinginarunawayglobalwarmingevents.
5Otherpossiblecausesofclimatechange
Inspiteoftheevidencepresentedabove,therehasbeenmuchdebateastowhetherour presentglobalwarmingandclimatechangecouldinfactbebecauseofeffectsotherthanatmosphericgases.Theseinclude:thevariationinthesun’senergy;volcanicactivity;changesin theearth’sorbitalcharacteristics,includingtheMalankovitchcycles;cosmicrayeffects;and atmosphericaerosols.ThesehaveallbeendiscussedinchaptersinClimateChange(Letcher, 2015)byworldexpertsandtheconsensusofopinionisthatnoneofthemcouldnotpossibly beresponsibleforourpresentclimatechange(Stenchikov,2016).Theconclusionofscientists aroundtheworldissummedupbyMacottetal.whowrote“Theearth’sclimateiscomplex
andrespondstomultipleforcings,includingCO2 andsolarinsolation.Bothofthosehave changedveryslowlyoverthepast11,000years.Butinthelast100years,theincreasein CO2 throughincreasedemissionsfromhumanactivitieshasbeensignificant.Itistheonly variablethatcanbestexplaintherapidincreaseinglobaltemperatures”(Shakunetal.,2012).
Overall,humansourcesofCO2 aremuchsmallerthanthenaturalemissionsfromanimals, plants,decayinganimals,vegetation,andvolcanoes(https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/ Features/CarbonCycle/page5.php).However,humanactivityhasupsetthebalanceinacyclethathasexistedforthousandsofyears.Theamountofcarbonontheearthandintheatmosphereisfixedbutitisinadynamicandequilibriumcycle,movingbetweenlivingand nonlivingthings,andchangingintodifferentcarboncompoundssuchascarbondioxidein theairandintheoceans,solidcarbonaterock,andthelivingcellsofplantsandanimals.Inthe firststepofthecycle,plantstakeupCO2 fromtheairthroughtheprocessofphotosynthesis, andreleaseoxygen.TheCO2 isthenconvertedintolivingcells.Inthenextstep,theanimals eattheplants,andthecarbonintheplantcellsareusedtobuildanimaltissueandcells.Animalsalsobreatheinoxygenandexhalecarbondioxidewhichinturnentertheatmosphere andthecyclecontinues.Deadplantsanddeadanimalsdecomposeandcarboniseither releasedasCH4 andCO2 orstoredinthesoil.Superimposedonthiscycleistheexchange ofCO2 betweentheatmosphereandtheoceans.Theseprocesseswereinnearperfect equilibriumbeforetheindustrialrevolution(https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ CarbonCycle/page5.php)(Denmanetal.,2007).
Theevidencethatglobalwarmingisalteringourclimateisverywelldocumented,and almostnodaygoesbywithoutmoreevidenceforclimatechange.Theindicatorsinclude: moreextremeweathereventsinthefuture;meltingofArcticseaice;AntarcticSeachanges; landicebehavior(includingglaciersandicesheets);weatherpatternchanges;birdecology changes(includingmigration);mammalandinsectecologychangesandbiodiversityloss;sea lifeandcoralreefchanges;marinediversityandintertidalindicators;plantecologyandplant pathogenchanges;risingsealevels;andoceanacidification(Letcher,2016).
6Urgentactionisrequired
Thereisagrowingthreatofenvironmentalcollapseinthefuture,asaresultofchangesin ourpresentclimate.Wearebeginningtoseethiswithextremeweathereventssuchas flooding,droughtsandwatercrises,highwinds,runawayfires,wash-aways,andmudflows fromlanddenudedofitsnaturalrainsoakingproperties,highseasincoastalareas,together withrisingsealevels,tomentionafew.Oneconsequenceofclimatechangeisthemigrationof insectsandanimalstomorehospitableclimates.Amorefrighteninginvoluntarymassmigrationhasalreadybegun:ofhumansfromlandsunabletosupportthegrowingofcropsand fromareaswhererisingsealevelsarebeginningtothreatenlivelihood.Itisnotonlynatural disastersthatareacauseforconcernbutalsoman-madedisasterswhichresultindirectly fromglobalwarmingthatareacauseforconcern.Theseinclude:thereducedabilityofland tosoakuprainwaterasaresultoflandclearancesandurbandevelopmentresultingin flooding;chemicalpollutionintheformofpesticides,endocrinedisruptorsandhormonally activeagentsusedonfarmstoincreaseyields;nucleardisastersthroughextremeweather;
land-usedecisionsforagriculture;oilfires,coalminefiresandeventyrefireswhichaddtheir owncontributiontorisingCO2 levels(https://www.ecotricity.co.uk/our-green-energy/ energy-independence/the-end-of-fossil-fuels).
MostworldgovernmentshaveacceptedtheassessmentoftheUnitedNationsFramework ConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)thata2°Criseinmeanglobaltemperatureabove thepreindustriallevelmustbethemaximumlimit.Inordertomeetthisobjective,studies generallyindicatetheneedforglobalgreenhousegasemissionstopeakbefore2020witha substantialreductioninemissionsthereafter.
WeneedtoreducetheamountofCO2 enteringtheatmosphereandifpossible,weshould findwaysofremovingsomeoftheCO2 presentlyintheatmosphere.PresentdayCO2 levels intheatmosphereexceedthenaturalequilibriumofdissolvedCO2 intheoceansandwiththe CO2 uptakebybiotaonland.Unfortunately,thisrisingnonequilibriumamountofCO2 remainsintheairforaverylongtime.ThereasonisthatCO2,unlikeothergreenhousegases suchasCH4,isveryun-reactive.Itdoesnotnaturallyreactwithmostchemicalsandinthermodynamicterms,ithasaveryhighGibbsEnergyofFormation.Inordertobringabouta reactionofCO2 withanotherchemical,asignificantamountofenergymustbegivento thesystem(e.g.,heatenergy).Thisisalsothereasonwhyitissodifficulttogetridofwaste CO2 fromchemicalreactions(e.g.,cementmanufacture,orevenfromburningfossilfuels) andwhyitisrarelyusedasachemicalfeedstockinindustry.
Therearestilllargereservesofcoaloilandgasintheearth.Theseconvenientsourcesof energyarenotonlyeasytouseforheatingandforproducingenergy,butexistinastoredform whichallowsthemtobeusedatanytimeinthefuture.Ithasbeenestimated(https://www. ecotricity.co.uk/our-green-energy/energy-independence/the-end-of-fossil-fuels)thatglobally,wecurrentlyconsumetheequivalentofover11billiontonnesofoilfromfossilfuelseveryyear.Crudeoilreservesarevanishingatarateofmorethan4billiontonnesayear—soif wecarryonasweare,ourknownoildepositscouldrunoutinjustover53years.Ifweincreasegasproductiontofilltheenergygapleftbyoil,ourknowngasreservesonlygive usjust52yearsleft.Althoughit’softenclaimedthatwehaveenoughcoaltolasthundreds ofyears,thisdoesn’ttakeintoaccounttheneedforincreasedproductionifwerunoutof oilandgas.Ifwestepupproductiontomakeupfordepletedoilandgasreserves,ourknown coaldepositscouldbegonein150years.AnothersetofestimateshavebeengivenbyBritish Petroleum(BP)in2018.Thefigureswerealittlelessoptimistic.Theirestimationofthetime leftforfossilfuelasaresultofpresent-dayusagewaspredictedtobe:oilwillendin30years, gasin40yearsandcoalin70years(https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/fossil-fuelsrun/).Ourfuturemindsetmusthowevernotbeseducedbytheconvenientpropertiesoffossilfuel,butforthesakeoftheplanet,thereservesmuststayforeverbelowgroundand nonfossilfuelsourcesofenergyshouldbeembraced.
Whatisalsorequiredistheneedfortheworldtoreplacegrowthinthefinancialsectorwith sustainabilityforthefutureofthesocietyandtheworld’secosystem.Wecannotcarryonas weareandperhapsthepresentCOVID-19pandemichasgivenustimetorethinkourlives andfollowtheadviceofRiccardoMastiniinreference(http://unevenearth.org/2020/02/apost-growth-green-new-deal/).“Tosummarize,fromapostgrowthperspectiveaGreenNew Dealmustpursuethreedistinctbutinterrelatedgoals:decreasingenergyandmaterialuse, decommodifyingthebasicnecessitiesoflife,anddemocratizingeconomicproduction.
AnyGreenNewDealproposalthatdoesnotaddresshead-onthedriversofeconomicgrowth isdoomedtofallshortofthechallengeofsteeringawayfromtheworstscenariosofecological breakdown.”ThisisalsothesentimentofJasonHickelwhowroteinreference(Hickel,2020), “Theworldhasfinallyawokentotherealityofclimatebreakdownandecologicalcollapse. Nowwemustfaceuptoitsprimarycause.Capitalismdemandsperpetualexpansion,which isdevastatingthelivingworld.Thereisonlyonesolutionthatwillleadtomeaningfuland immediatechange:andthatisdegrowth.”
7Ourpresentsituation
Thispastyear,2019,wasagainoneofthehottestonrecord(https://climate.nasa.gov/ news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal-2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/).According toindependentanalysesbyNASAandtheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration(NOAA),Earth’saverageglobalsurfacetemperaturein2019wasthesecondwarmest sincemodernrecord-keepingbeganin1880.Globally,averagetemperaturein2019wassecondonlytothatof2016andcontinuedtheplanet’slong-termwarmingtrend:thepast5years havebeenthewarmestofthelast140years.Thispastyearwas0.98°Cwarmerthanthe 1951–80mean,accordingtoscientistsatNASA’sGoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies (GISS)inNewYork(https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2945/nasa-noaa-analyses-reveal2019-second-warmest-year-on-record/).Itshowsthatwearenotdoingenoughtoreduce theamountofCO2 intheatmosphere.Theonlywaytoreduceglobalwarmingistoreduce theamountofCO2 wearepumpingintotheair,andifpossible,removingCO2 fromthe atmosphere.
Atpresent,lessthan20%ofallenergysourcesareeitherrenewable(wind,solar,hydropower,biomasstide,andgeothermal)ornuclear.Replacingfossilfueltoreducesignificantly ourCO2 emissionsisgoingtobeamammothtask.
Theworldisnotreplacingfossilfuelwithrenewableformsofenergyfastenough.Thiswas emphasizedin2019bySpencerDale,ChiefEconomistatBPwhostated:“Thereisagrowing mismatchbetweensocietaldemandsforactiononclimatechangeandtheactualpaceofprogress,withenergydemandandcarbonemissionsgrowingattheirfastestrateforyears.The worldisonanunsustainablepath”(https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-andinsights/press-releases/bp-statistical-review-of-world-energy-2019.html).
Itispossibleforsolarenergytopowertheworld.Inlessthan80min,thesolarequivalent energyofthetotalworldenergyuseforayear,strikestheEarth;thisimpliesthatintheorythe suncouldpowertheworld7000times.
Ithasbeenestimated,thatin2015,humanactivitiescontributed36.8 10 9 tofCO2 throughburningcoalandotherfossilfuels,cementproduction,deforestation,andother landscapechanges( https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-global-fossil-fuel-emissions-upzero-point-six-per-cent-in-2019-due-to-china#: :text¼Emissions%20from%20fossil%20fuel% 20and,Global%20Carbon%20Project%20(GCP)).IthasalsobeenestimatedthatsincetheIndustrialRevolution,over2000 109 tofCO2 havebeenaddedtotheatmosphere.Human activitiesemit60ormoretimestheamountofcarbondioxidereleasedbyvolcanoeseachyear (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/which-emits-more-carbon-dioxidevolcanoes-or-human-activities).
Thepopulationoftheworldisincreasingandsoistheneedformoreenergywithagreater demandformoreelectricity.Theworldpopulation(itisnow7.6 109 accordingtothelatest 2018UnitedNationestimate)isexpectedtoreach9 109 in2050.Itisincreasingatarateof 1.09%peryearatthemoment(2018)downfrom1.14%yr 1 in2016anddownfromthepeak in1963of2.2%yr 1.Theexpectedrateofgrowthinenergydemandoverthenextdecadeis greaterthanthegrowthrateofthepopulation;thisislargelybecauseoftheincreasedemand forelectricityindevelopingcountries.Electricitygenerationisexpectedtoincreasefrom 25 1012 kWhin2017to31.2 1012 kWhin2030anincreaseofalmost2%peryear (https://www.statista.com/statistics/238610/projected-world-electricity-generation-byenergy-source/).
Atthemoment,coalisstillthelargestproducerofelectricityworldwide,andisnot expectedtobeovertakenbyrenewablesuntil2040.Therelativebreakdownofelectricityproducersandfuturepredictionsisgivenin Table3.Itillustratestheenergydilemmaofour time—thepositiveandencouragingincreaseinthedeploymentofrenewableformsofenergy ismaskedbytheincreasingoverallenergyneedsoftheworldandthatincreaseisstillbeing metbyfurtherincreasesinfossilfuelusage.Thepresentandfutureworldelectricitygenerationisdominatedbytheburningoffossilfuels(over60%)andthepredictionfor2040isnot muchbetter(58%).Itisnodoubtdrivenbyanumberofforcesincluding:therelative
TABLE3 Breakdownofelectricityproductionworldwideandapredictionoverthe nexttwodecades(https://www.statista.com ›Energy&EnvironmentalServices› Electricity).
TABLE4 WorldwidesourceofCO2 (mostlyfossilfuel)emissions,2018 (https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions ). Carbondioxideemissions(%)
