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Paul Newbold

William L. Carlson

Betty M. Thorne

Statistics for Business and Economics

Paul Newbold

University of Nottingham

William L. Carlson

St. Olaf College

Betty M. Thorne

Stetson University

Credits and acknowledgments borrowed from other sources and reproduced, with permission, in this textbook appear on the appropriate page of appearance or in the Credits on pages

Cover image by Igor Kisselev/Shutterstock

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The rights of Paul Newbold, William L. Carlson, and Betty M. Thorne, to be identified as the authors of this work, have been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

Authorized adaptation from the Global Edition, entitled StatisticsforBusinessandEconomics , 9th Edition, ISBN 978-1-292-31503-4 by Paul Newbold, William L. Carlson, and Betty M. Thorne, published by Pearson Education © 2020.

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1 23

Typeset in Times NR MT Pro by B2R Technologies Pvt. Ltd

I dedicate this book to Sgt. Lawrence Martin Carlson, who gave his life in service to his country on November 19, 2006, and to his mother, Charlotte Carlson, to his sister and brother, Andrea and Douglas, to his children, Savannah, and Ezra, and to his nieces, Helana, Anna, Eva Rose, and Emily.

William L. Carlson

I dedicate this book to my husband, Jim, and to our family, Jennie, Ann, Renee, Jon, Chris, Jon, Hannah, Leah, Christina, Jim, Wendy, Marius, Mihaela, Cezara, Anda, and Mara Iulia.

Betty M. Thorne

Dr. Bill Carlson is professor emeritus of economics at St. Olaf College, where he taught for 31 years, serving several times as department chair and in various administrative functions, including director of academic computing. He has also held leave assignments with the U.S. government and the University of Minnesota in addition to lecturing at many different universities. He was elected an honorary member of Phi Beta Kappa. In addition, he spent 10 years in private industry and contract research prior to beginning his career at St. Olaf. His education includes engineering degrees from Michigan Technological University (BS) and from the Illinois Institute of Technology (MS) and a PhD in quantitative management from the Rackham Graduate School at the University of Michigan. Numerous research projects related to management, highway safety, and statistical education have produced more than 50 publications. He received the Metropolitan Insurance Award of Merit for Safety Research. He has previously published two statistics textbooks. An important goal of this book is to help students understand the forest and not be lost in the trees. Hiking the Lake Superior trail in Northern Minnesota helps in developing this goal. Professor Carlson led a number of study-abroad programs, ranging from 1 to 5 months, for study in various countries around the world. He was the executive director of the Cannon Valley Elder Collegium and a regular volunteer for a number of community activities. He is a member of both the Methodist and Lutheran disaster-relief teams and a regular participant in the local Habitat for Humanity building team. He enjoys his grandchildren, woodworking, travel, reading, and being on assignment on the North Shore of Lake Superior.

Dr. Betty M. Thorne, author, researcher, and award-winning teacher, is a professor of statistics in the School of Business Administration at Stetson University in DeLand, Florida. Winner of Stetson University’s McEniry Award for Excellence in Teaching, the highest honor given to a Stetson University faculty member, Dr. Thorne is also the recipient of the Outstanding Teacher of the Year Award and Professor of the Year Award in the School of Business Administration at Stetson. Dr. Thorne teaches in Stetson University’s undergraduate business program in DeLand, Florida, and also in Stetson’s summer program in Innsbruck, Austria; Stetson University’s College of Law; Stetson University’s Executive MBA program; and Stetson University’s Executive Passport program. Dr. Thorne has received various teaching awards in the JD/MBA program at Stetson’s College of Law” in Gulfport, Florida. She received her BS degree from Geneva College and MA and PhD degrees from Indiana University. She has co-authored statistics textbooks which have been translated into several languages and adopted by universities, nationally and internationally. She serves on key school and university committees. Dr. Thorne, whose research has been published in various refereed journals, is a member of the American Statistical Association, the Decision Science Institute, Beta Alpha Psi, Beta Gamma Sigma, and the Academy of International Business. She and her husband, Jim, have four children. They travel extensively, attend theological conferences and seminars, participate in international organizations dedicated to helping disadvantaged children, and do missionary work in Romania.

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Preface 13

Data File Index 23

CHAPTER 1 Describing Data: Graphical 25

CHAPTER 2 Describing Data: Numerical 63

CHAPTER 3 Probability 97

CHAPTER 4 Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions 150

CHAPTER 5 Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions 201

CHAPTER 6 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 248

CHAPTER 7 Estimation: Single Population 288

CHAPTER 8 Estimation: Additional Topics 332

CHAPTER 9 Hypothesis Testing: Single Population 350

CHAPTER 10 Hypothesis Testing: Additional Topics 389

CHAPTER 11 Simple Regression 421

CHAPTER 12 Multiple Regression 477

CHAPTER 13 Additional Topics in Regression Analysis 555

CHAPTER 14 Analysis of Categorical Data 606

CHAPTER 15 Analysis of Variance 649

CHAPTER 16 Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting 688

CHAPTER 17 Additional Topics in Sampling 720 Appendix Tables 742 Index 787

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Preface 13

Data File Index 23

CHAPTER 1 Describing Data: Graphical 25

1.1 Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment 26

Random and Systematic Sampling 26

Sampling and Nonsampling Errors 28

1.2 Classification of Variables 29

Categorical and Numerical Variables 29

Measurement Levels 30

1.3 Graphs to Describe Categorical Variables 32

Tables and Charts 32

Cross Tables 33

Pie Charts 35

Pareto Diagrams 36

1.4 Graphs to Describe Time-Series Data 39

1.5 Graphs to Describe Numerical Variables 44

Frequency Distributions 44

Histograms and Ogives 48

Shape of a Distribution 48

Stem-and-Leaf Displays 50

Scatter Plots 51

1.6 Data Presentation Errors 55

Misleading Histograms 55 Misleading Time-Series Plots 57

CHAPTER 2 Describing Data: Numerical 63

2.1 Measures of Central Tendency and Location 63

Mean, Median, and Mode 64

Shape of a Distribution 66

Geometric Mean 67

Percentiles and Quartiles 68

2.2 Measures of Variability 72

Range and Interquartile Range 73

Box-and-Whisker Plots 73

Variance and Standard Deviation 75

Coefficient of Variation 79

Chebyshev’s Theorem and the Empirical Rule 79

z-Score 81

2.3 Weighted Mean and Measures of Grouped Data 84

2.4 Measures of Relationships Between Variables 88

Case Study: Mortgage Portfolio 95

CHAPTER 3 Probability 97

3.1 Random Experiment, Outcomes, and Events 98

3.2 Probability and Its Postulates 105 Classical Probability 105 Permutations and Combinations 106 Relative Frequency 110 Subjective Probability 111

3.3 Probability Rules 115 Conditional Probability 117 Statistical Independence 120

3.4 Bivariate Probabilities 126 Odds 130

Overinvolvement Ratios 130

3.5 Bayes’ Theorem 136

Subjective Probabilities in Management Decision Making 142

CHAPTER 4 Discrete Random Variables and Probability Distributions 150

4.1 Random Variables 151

4.2 Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables 152

4.3 Properties of Discrete Random Variables 156

Expected Value of a Discrete Random Variable 156

Variance of a Discrete Random Variable 157

Mean and Variance of Linear Functions of a Random Variable 159

4.4 Binomial Distribution 163

Developing the Binomial Distribution 164

4.5 Poisson Distribution 171

Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution 175

Comparison of the Poisson and Binomial Distributions 176

4.6 Hypergeometric Distribution 177

4.7 Jointly Distributed Discrete Random Variables 180

Conditional Mean and Variance 184

Computer Applications 184

Linear Functions of Random Variables 184 Covariance 185

Correlation 186

Portfolio Analysis 190

CHAPTER 5 Continuous Random Variables and Probability Distributions 201

5.1 Continuous Random Variables 202 The Uniform Distribution 205

5.2 Expectations for Continuous Random Variables 207

5.3 The Normal Distribution 210 Normal Probability Plots 219

5.4 Normal Distribution Approximation for Binomial Distribution 223 Proportion Random Variable 227

5.5 The Exponential Distribution 229

5.6 Jointly Distributed Continuous Random Variables 232

Linear Combinations of Random Variables 236

Financial Investment Portfolios 236 Cautions Concerning Finance Models 240

CHAPTER 6 Sampling and Sampling Distributions 248

6.1 Sampling from a Population 249 Development of a Sampling Distribution 250

6.2 Sampling Distributions of Sample Means 253

Central Limit Theorem 258

Monte Carlo Simulations: Central Limit Theorem 258

Acceptance Intervals 264

6.3 Sampling Distributions of Sample Proportions 269

6.4 Sampling Distributions of Sample Variances 274

CHAPTER 7 Estimation: Single Population 288

7.1 Properties of Point Estimators 289 Unbiased 290 Most Efficient 291

7.2 Confidence Interval Estimation for the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Known 295 Intervals Based on the Normal Distribution 296 Reducing Margin of Error 299

7.3 Confidence Interval Estimation for the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Unknown 301 Student’s t Distribution 301 Intervals Based on the Student’s t Distribution 303

7.4 Confidence Interval Estimation for Population Proportion (Large Samples) 307

7.5 Confidence Interval Estimation for the Variance of a Normal Distribution 310

7.6 Confidence Interval Estimation: Finite Populations 313

Population Mean and Population Total 313

Population Proportion 316

7.7 Sample-Size Determination: Large Populations 319 Mean of a Normally Distributed Population, Known Population Variance 319

Population Proportion 321

7.8 Sample-Size Determination: Finite Populations 323

Sample Sizes for Simple Random Sampling: Estimation of the Population Mean or Total 324

Sample Sizes for Simple Random Sampling: Estimation of Population Proportion 325

CHAPTER 8 Estimation: Additional Topics 332

8.1 Confidence Interval Estimation of the Difference Between Two Normal Population Means: Dependent Samples 333

8.2 Confidence Interval Estimation of the Difference Between Two Normal Population Means: Independent Samples 337

Two Means, Independent Samples, and Known Population Variances 337 Two Means, Independent Samples, and Unknown Population Variances Assumed to Be Equal 339

Two Means, Independent Samples, and Unknown Population Variances Not Assumed to Be Equal 341

8.3 Confidence Interval Estimation of the Difference Between Two Population Proportions (Large Samples) 344

CHAPTER 9 Hypothesis Testing: Single Population 350

9.1 Concepts of Hypothesis Testing 351

9.2 Tests of the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Known 356 p-Value 358 Two-Sided Alternative Hypothesis 364

9.3 Tests of the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Unknown 366

9.4 Tests of the Population Proportion (Large Samples) 370

9.5 Assessing the Power of a Test 372 Tests of the Mean of a Normal Distribution: Population Variance Known 373 Power of Population Proportion Tests (Large Samples) 375

9.6 Tests of the Variance of a Normal Distribution 379

CHAPTER 10 Hypothesis Testing: Additional Topics 389

10.1 Tests of the Difference Between Two Normal Population Means: Dependent Samples 391 Two Means, Matched Pairs 391

10.2 Tests of the Difference Between Two Normal Population Means: Independent Samples 395

Two Means, Independent Samples, Known Population Variances 395 Two Means, Independent Samples, Unknown Population Variances Assumed to Be Equal 397 Two Means, Independent Samples, Unknown Population Variances Not Assumed to Be Equal 400

10.3 Tests of the Difference Between Two Population Proportions (Large Samples) 403

10.4 Tests of the Equality of the Variances Between Two Normally Distributed Populations 407

10.5 Some Comments on Hypothesis Testing 410

CHAPTER 11 Simple Regression 421

11.1 Overview of Linear Models 422

11.2 Linear Regression Model 425

11.3 Least Squares Coefficient Estimators 431 Computer Computation of Regression Coefficients 433

11.4 The Explanatory Power of a Linear Regression Equation 435 Coefficient of Determination, R2 437

11.5 Statistical Inference: Hypothesis Tests and Confidence Intervals 442 Hypothesis Test for Population Slope Coefficient Using the F Distribution 447

11.6 Prediction 450

11.7 Correlation Analysis 456

Hypothesis Test for Correlation 456

11.8 Beta Measure of Financial Risk 460

11.9 Graphical Analysis 462

CHAPTER 12 Multiple Regression 477

12.1 The Multiple Regression Model 478

Model Specification 478

Model Objectives 480 Model Development 481 Three-Dimensional Graphing 484

12.2 Estimation of Coefficients 485 Least Squares Procedure 486

12.3 Explanatory Power of a Multiple Regression Equation 492

12.4 Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests for Individual Regression Coefficients 497

Confidence Intervals 499 Tests of Hypotheses 501

12.5 Tests on Regression Coefficients 509 Tests on All Coefficients 509 Test on a Subset of Regression Coefficients 510

Comparison of F and t Tests 512

12.6 Prediction 515

12.7 Transformations for Nonlinear Regression Models 518

Quadratic Transformations 519

Logarithmic Transformations 521

12.8 Dummy Variables for Regression Models 526

Differences in Slope 529

12.9 Multiple Regression Analysis Application Procedure 533

Model Specification 533

Multiple Regression 535

Effect of Dropping a Statistically

Significant Variable 536 Analysis of Residuals 538

CHAPTER 13 Additional Topics in Regression Analysis 555

13.1

Model-Building Methodology 556

Model Specification 556

Coefficient Estimation 557

Model Verification 558

Model Interpretation and Inference 558

13.2 Dummy Variables and Experimental Design 558

Experimental Design Models 562

Public Sector Applications 567

13.3 Lagged Values of the Dependent Variable as Regressors 571

13.4 Specification Bias 575

13.5 Multicollinearity 578

13.6 Heteroscedasticity 581

13.7 Autocorrelated Errors 586

Estimation of Regressions with Autocorrelated Errors 590

Autocorrelated Errors in Models with Lagged Dependent Variables 594

CHAPTER 14 Analysis of Categorical Data 606

14.1 Goodness-of-Fit Tests: Specified Probabilities 607

14.2 Goodness-of-Fit Tests: Population Parameters Unknown 613

A Test for the Poisson Distribution 613

A Test for the Normal Distribution 615

14.3 Contingency Tables 618

14.4 Nonparametric Tests for Paired or Matched Samples 623

Sign Test for Paired or Matched Samples 623

Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test for Paired or Matched Samples 626

Normal Approximation to the Sign Test 627

Normal Approximation to the Wilcoxon

Signed Rank Test 628

Sign Test for a Single Population

Median 630

14.5 Nonparametric Tests for Independent Random Samples 632

Mann-Whitney U Test 632

Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test 635

14.6 Spearman Rank Correlation 638

14.7 A Nonparametric Test for Randomness 640

Runs Test: Small Sample Size 640 Runs Test: Large Sample Size 642

CHAPTER 15 Analysis of Variance 649

15.1 Comparison of Several Population Means 649

15.2 One-Way Analysis of Variance 651 Multiple Comparisons Between Subgroup Means 658

Population Model for One-Way Analysis of Variance 659

15.3 The Kruskal-Wallis Test 662

15.4 Two-Way Analysis of Variance: One Observation per Cell, Randomized Blocks 665

15.5 Two-Way Analysis of Variance: More Than One Observation per Cell 674

CHAPTER 16 Time-Series Analysis and Forecasting 688

16.1 Components of a Time Series 689

16.2 Moving Averages 693

Extraction of the Seasonal Component Through Moving Averages 696

16.3 Exponential Smoothing 701 The Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Model 704

Forecasting Seasonal Time Series 708

16.4 Autoregressive Models 712

16.5 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models 717

CHAPTER 17 Additional Topics in Sampling 720

17.1 Stratified Sampling 720 Analysis of Results from Stratified Random Sampling 722

Allocation of Sample Effort Among Strata 727

Determining Sample Sizes for Stratified Random Sampling with Specified Degree of Precision 729

17.2 Other Sampling Methods 733

Cluster Sampling 733 Two-Phase Sampling 736

Nonprobabilistic Sampling Methods 738

APPENDIX TABLES 742

INDEX 787

Business statistics has continued to evolve as a discipline and has become an increasingly important part of business education programs. It is crucial how business statistics gets taught and what gets taught. Statistics for Business and Economics, tenth edition , has been written to meet the need for an introductory text that provides a strong introduction to business statistics, develops understanding of concepts, and emphasizes problem solving using realistic examples that use real data sets and computer based analysis. These examples highlight business and economics examples for the following:

• MBA or undergraduate business programs that teach business statistics

• Graduate and undergraduate economics programs

• Executive MBA programs

• Graduate courses for business statistics

Designed to build a strong foundation in applied statistical procedures, Statistics for Business and Economics enables individuals to perform solid statistical analysis in many business and economic situations. We have emphasized an understanding of the assumptions that are necessary for professional analysis. In particular we have greatly expanded the number of applications that utilize data from applied policy and research settings. These data and problem scenarios have been obtained from business analysts, major research organizations, and selected extractions from publicly available data sources. With data analysis software like Microsoft Excel, JMP, and Minitab, that illustrate how software can assist decision making process, it is now easy to compute, from the data, the output needed for many statistical procedures. It is tempting to merely apply simple “rules” using these outputs—an approach used in many textbooks. Our approach is to provide instruction through a combination of examples and exercises, supported by relevant software that show how understanding of methods and their assumptions lead to useful understanding of business and economic problems.

KEY FEATURES

The tenth edition of this book has been revised and updated to provide students with improved problem contexts for learning how statistical methods can improve their analysis and understanding of business and economics.

The objective of this revision is to provide a strong core textbook with new features and modifications that will provide an improved learning environment for students entering a rapidly changing technical work environment. This revision recognizes the globalization of statistical study and in particular the global market for this book.

1. Improvement in clarity and relevance of discussions of the core topics included in the book.

2. Addition of large databases developed by global public research agencies, businesses, and databases from the authors’ own works.

3. An extensive number of new end-of-section or end-of-chapter problems.

4. Addition of a number of case studies, with both large and small sample sizes. Students are provided the opportunity to extend their statistical understanding to the context of research and analysis conducted by professionals. These studies include data files obtained from on-going research studies, which reduce for the student, the

extensive work load of data collection and refinement, thus providing an emphasis on question formulation, analysis, and reporting of results.

5. Careful revision of text and symbolic language to ensure consistent terms and definitions and to remove errors that accumulated from previous revisions and production problems.

6. Major revision of the discussion of Time Series both in terms of describing historical patterns and in the focus on identifying the underlying structure and introductory forecasting methods.

7. Integration of the text material, data sets, and exercises into new online applications including MyLab Statistics

8. Expansion of descriptive statistics to include percentiles, z-scores, and alternative formulae to compute the sample variance and sample standard deviation

9. Addition of a significant number of new examples based on real world data

10. Greater emphasis on the assumptions being made when conducting various statistical procedures

11. Reorganization of sampling concepts

12. More detailed business-oriented examples and exercises incorporated in the analysis of statistics

13. Improved chapter introductions that include business examples discussed in the chapter.

14. Good range of difficulty in the section ending exercises that permit the professor to tailor the difficulty level to his or her course.

15. Improved suitability for both introductory and advanced statistics courses for undergraduate and graduate students.

16. Decision Theory, which is covered in other business classes such as operations management or strategic management, has been moved to an online location for access by those who are interested (www.pearsonglobaleditions.com).

This edition devotes considerable effort to providing an understanding of statistical methods and their applications. We have avoided merely providing rules and canned computer routines for analyzing and solving statistical problems. This edition contains a complete discussion of methods and assumptions, including computational details expressed in clear and complete formulas. Through examples and extended chapter applications, we provide guidelines for interpreting results and explain how to determine if additional analysis is required. The development of the many procedures included under statistical inference and regression analysis are built on a strong development of probability and random variables, which are a foundation for the applications presented in this book. The foundation also includes a clear and complete discussion of descriptive statistics and graphical approaches. These provide important tools for exploring and describing data that represent a process being studied.

Probability and random variables are presented with a number of important applications, which are invaluable in management decision making. These include conditional probability and Bayesian applications that clarify decisions and show counterintuitive results in a number of decision situations. Linear combinations of random variables are developed in detail, with a number of applications of importance, including portfolio applications in finance.

The authors strongly believe that students learn best when they work with challenging and relevant applications that apply the concepts presented by dedicated teachers and the textbook. Thus the textbook has always included a number of data sets obtained from various applications in the public and private sectors. In the eighth edition we have added a number of large data sets obtained from major research projects and other sources. These data sets are used in chapter examples, exercises, and case studies located at the end of analysis chapters. A number of exercises consider individual analyses that are typically part of larger research projects. With this structure, students can deal with important detailed questions and can also work with case studies that require them to identify the detailed questions that are logically part of a larger research project. These large data sets can also be used by the teacher to develop additional research and case study projects that

are custom designed for local course environments. The opportunity to custom design new research questions for students is a unique part of this textbook.

A number of major data sets containing Taiwan’s real estate measures, automobile fuel consumption, health data, the World Happiness Report (which captures the effects of COVID-19 on people’s lives and evaluates how world governments dealt with the pandemic), New York’s air quality index, and more are described in detail at the end of the chapters where they are used in exercises and case studies. A complete list of the data files and where they are used is located at the end of this preface. Data files are also shown by chapter at the end of each chapter.

The book provides a complete and in-depth presentation of major applied topics. An initial read of the discussion and application examples enables a student to begin working on simple exercises, followed by challenging exercises that provide the opportunity to learn by doing relevant analysis applications. Chapters also include summary sections, which clearly present the key components of application tools. Many analysts and teachers have used this book as a reference for reviewing specific applications. Once you have used this book to help learn statistical applications, you will also find it to be a useful resource as you use statistical analysis procedures in your future career.

A number of special applications of major procedures are included in various sections. Clearly there are more than can be used in a single course. But careful selection of topics from the various chapters enables the teacher to design a course that provides for the specific needs of students in the local academic program. Special examples that can be left out or included provide a breadth of opportunities. The initial probability chapter, Chapter 3, provides topics such as decision trees, overinvolvement ratios, and expanded coverage of Bayesian applications, any of which might provide important material for local courses. Confidence interval and hypothesis tests include procedures for variances and for categorical and ordinal data. Random-variable chapters include linear combination of correlated random variables with applications to financial portfolios. Regression applications include estimation of beta ratios in finance, dummy variables in experimental design, nonlinear regression, and many more.

As indicated here, the book has the capability of being used in a variety of courses that provide applications for a variety of academic programs. The other benefit to the student is that this textbook can be an ideal resource for the student’s future professional career. The design of the book makes it possible for a student to come back to topics after several years and quickly renew his or her understanding. With all the additional special topics, that may not have been included in a first course, the book is a reference for learning important new applications. And the presentation of those new applications follows a presentation style and uses understandings that are familiar. This reduces the time required to master new application topics.

APPLYING CONCEPTS

We understand how important it is for students to know statistical concepts and apply those to different situations they face everyday or will face as managers of the future. Almost all sections include examples that illustrate the application of the concepts or methods of that section to a real-world context (even though the company or organization may be hypothetical). Problems are structured to present the perspective of a decision maker and the analysis provided is to help understand the use of statistics in a practical way.

PROMOTING PROBLEM ANALYSIS

This book includes section Exercises and chapter Exercises and Applications. The section exercises for each chapter begin with straightforward exercises targeted at the topics in each section. These are designed to check understanding of specific topics. Because they appear after each section, it is easy to turn back to the chapter to clarify a concept or review a method. The Chapter Exercises and Applications are designed to lead to conclusions

about the real world and are more application-based. They usually combine concepts and methods from different sections.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We appreciate the following colleagues who provided feedback about the book to guide our thoughts on this revision: Valerie R. Bencivenga, University of Texas at Austin; Burak Dolar, Augustana College; Zhimin Huang, Adelphi University; Stephen Lich-Tyler, University of North Carolina; Tung Liu, Ball State University; Leonard Presby, William Paterson University; Subarna K. Samanta, The College of New Jersey; Shane Sanders, Nicholls State University; Harold Schneider, Rider University; Sean Simpson, Westchester Community College.

The authors thank Dr. Andrea Carlson, Economic Research Service (ERS), U. S. Department of Agriculture, for her assistance in providing several major data files and for guidance in developing appropriate research questions for exercises and case studies. We also thank Paula Dutko and Empharim Leibtag for providing an example of complex statistical analysis in the public sector. We also recognize the excellent work by Annie Puciloski in finding our errors and improving the professional quality of this book.

We extend appreciation to two Stetson alumni, Richard Butcher (RELEVANT Magazine) and Lisbeth Mendez (mortgage company), for providing real data from their companies that we used for new examples, exercises, and case studies.

In addition, we express special thanks for continuing support from our families. Bill Carlson especially acknowledges his best friend and wife, Charlotte, their adult children, Andrea and Doug, and grandchildren, Ezra, Savannah, Helena, Anna, Eva Rose, and Emily. Betty Thorne extends special thanks to her best friend and husband, Jim, and to their family Jennie, Ann, Renee, Jon, Chris, Jon, Hannah, Leah, Christina, Jim, Wendy, Marius, Mihaela, Cezara, Anda, and Mara Iulia. In addition, Betty acknowledges (in memory) the support of her parents, Westley and Jennie Moore.

The authors acknowledge the strong foundation and tradition created by the original author, Paul Newbold. Paul understood the importance of rigorous statistical analysis and its foundations. He realized that there are some complex ideas that need to be developed, and he worked to provide clear explanations of difficult ideas. In addition, he realized that these ideas become useful only when used in realistic problem-solving situations. Thus, many examples and many applied student exercises were included in the early editions. We have worked to continue and expand this tradition in preparing a book that meets the needs of future business leaders in the information age.

GLOBAL EDITION ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We would like to thank the people who have contributed towards developing this book for the global markets and who have put in effort to update this global edition for students across the world.

Roland Baczur, PhD student at the University of Pécs

Alicia Tan Yiing Fei, Taylor’s University

Višnja Juric, Zagreb School of Economics and Management

Daniel Kehl, University of Pecs

Patricia Ramos, Nova School of Business and Economics

D.T. Tempelaar, Maastricht University

Dr. P.C. van Santen, University of Groningen

We would also like to thank the individuals who reviewed the text and whose feedback has made this a better book.

Dogan Serel, Bilkent University

Manfred Soeffky, Berlin School of Economics and Law

Yuan Wang, Sheffield Hallam University

Ioannis Karavias, University of Birmingham

Baczur Roland, University of Pécs

Get the Most Out of MyLab Statistics

MyLab™ Statistics is the leading online homework, tutorial, and assessment program for teaching and learning statistics, built around Pearson’s best-selling content. MyLab Stats helps students and instructors improve results; it provides engaging experiences and personalized learning for each student so learning can happen in any environment. Plus, it offers flexible and time-saving course management features to allow instructors to easily manage their classes while remaining in complete control, regardless of course format.

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One of the biggest challenges in many mathematics and statistics courses is making sure students are adequately prepared with the prerequisite skills needed to successfully complete their course work. Pearson offers a variety of content and course options to support students with just-in-time remediation and keyconcept review.

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Resources for Success

MyLab Statistics Online Course

for Statistics for Business and Economics,

Tenth Edition, by Newbold/Carlson/Thorne (access code required)

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StatCrunch

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Resources for Success

Instructor Supplements

Online Test Bank (download only): The test-item files contain true/false, multiple-choice, and short-answer questions based on concepts and ideas developed in each chapter of the text. Available to qualified instructors through Pearson’s online catalog at www.pearsonglobaleditions.com or within MyLab Statistics.

Instructor’s Solutions Manual (download only): Contains worked-out solutions for end-of-section and end-of-chapter exercises and applications. The Instructor’s Solutions Manual is available to qualified instructors through Pearson’s online catalog at www .pearsonglobaleditions.com or within MyLab Statistics.

TestGen® Computerized Test Bank (www.pearsoned .com/testgen): Enables instructors to build, edit, print, and administer tests using a computerized bank of questions developed to cover all the objectives of the text. TestGen is algorithmically based, allowing instructors to create multiple but equivalent versions of the same question or test with the click of a button. Instructors can also modify test bank questions or add new questions. The software and test bank are available for download from Pearson’s online catalog at www.pearsonglobaleditions.com

PowerPoint Lecture Slides: Free to qualified adopters, this set of chapter-by-chapter PowerPoint slides provides an instructor with individual lecture outlines to accompany the text. The slides include key figures and tables from the text, which can easily be modified, and help bring the statistical concepts alive in the classroom. These files are available to qualified instructors through Pearson’s online catalog at www.pearsonglobaleditions.com or within MyLab Statistics.

Learning Catalytics™: A web-based engagement and assessment tool. As a “bring-your-own-device” direct response system, Learning Catalytics offers a diverse library of dynamic question types that allow students to interact with and think critically about statistical concepts. As a real-time resource, instructors can take advantage of critical teaching moments both in the classroom and through assignable and gradable homework.

Student’s Solutions Manual, provides detailed, worked-out solutions to odd-numbered exercises. This item is available within MyLab Statistics and can be shared by the instructor only.

Student Resources

Online Resources: These resources include data files, which are available through Pearson’s online catalog at www.pearsonglobaleditions.com

Technology Resources

MyLab Statistics Online Course (access code required) MyLab™ Statistics is the teaching and learning platform that empowers you to reach every student. By combining trusted author content with digital tools and a flexible platform, MyLab Statistics personalizes the learning experience and improves results for each student. With MyLab Statistics and StatCrunch®, an integrated web-based statistical software program, students learn the skills they need to interact with data in the real world. Learn more about MyLab Statistics at pearson.com/mylab/statistics

Used by nearly one million students a year, MyLab Statistics is the world’s leading online program for teaching and learning statistics. MyLab Statistics delivers assessment, tutorials, and multimedia resources that provide engaging and personalized experiences for each student, so learning can happen in any environment. Each course is developed to accompany Pearson’s best-selling content, authored by thought leaders across the statistics curriculum, and can be easily customized to fit any course format.

Methods for teaching statistics are continuously evolving to provide today’s students with the skills they need to interact with data in the real world. In addition, statistics students are coming to the classroom with a wide range of backgrounds and learner styles. The flexibility to build a course that fits instructors’ individual course formats and every student’s needs—with a variety of content options and multimedia resources all

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Deliver Trusted Content

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Tutorial Exercises with Multimedia Learning Aids:

The homework and practice exercises in MyLab Statistics align with the exercises in the textbook, and they regenerate algorithmically to give students unlimited opportunity for practice and mastery. Exercises offer immediate helpful feedback, guided solutions, sample problems, animations, videos, and eText clips for extra help at point-of-use.

StatCrunch: MyLab Statistics integrates the web-based statistical software, StatCrunch, within the online assessment platform so that students can easily analyze datasets from exercises and the text. In addition, MyLab Statistics includes access to www.StatCrunch.com, a website where users can access tens of thousands of shared datasets, conduct online surveys, perform complex analyses using the powerful statistical software, and generate compelling reports.

Business Insight Videos: Engaging videos show managers at top companies using statistics in their everyday work. Assignable questions encourage debate and discussion.

StatTalk Videos: Fun-loving statistician Andrew Vickers takes to the streets of Brooklyn, New York, to demonstrate important statistical concepts through interesting stories and real-life events. This series of videos includes available assessment questions and an instructor’s guide.

Empower Each Learner

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TestGen® (www.pearsoned.com/testgen) enables instructors to build, edit, print, and administer tests using a computerized bank of questions developed to cover all the objectives of the text. TestGen is algorithmically based, allowing instructors to create multiple but equivalent versions of the same question or test with the click of a button. Instructors can also modify test bank questions or add new questions. The software and test bank are available for download from Pearson’s Instructor Resource Center at www.pearsonglobaleditions.com.

PowerPoint Lecture Slides

PowerPoint® Lecture Slides provide an outline to use in a lecture setting, presenting definitions, key concepts, and figures from the text. These slides are available within MyLab Statistics and in the Instructor Resource Center at www .pearsonglobaleditions.com

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Achievement Test Scores—Exercise 10.5

Advertising Retail—Example 13.6

Amsterdam Rents—Exercises 11.24, 11.30, 11.38, 11.46

Baby Walking—Exercises 8.14, 8.32, 14.17

Bank Assets—Exercises 16.36, 16.38

Beef Veal—Exercises 13.63–13.65

Benefits Research—Example 12.60

Births Australia—Exercise 13.17

Bottles—Exercise 6.82

Brent Oil Price— Exercise 14.49

Britain Sick Leave—Exercise 13.56

Browser Wars—Exercises 1.19, 1.25

Citydatr —Examples 12.7, 12.9, 14.14, Exercises 1.46, 11.84, 12.31, 12.100, 12.103, 13.22, 13.60

Completion Times—Example 1.9, Exercise 13.6

Croatian Coffee—Exercise 2.25

Currency Exchange Rates—Example 1.6, Exercise 1.24

Diversity—Exercise 1.22

Dow Jones—Exercises 11.23, 11.29, 11.37

Earnings per Share—Exercise 1.29

Electric Cars— Exercises 1.37, 2.22, 7.6, 7.103, 13.29

Euribor 12 Months—Exercise 14.48

Exchange Rate—Exercise 1.49

Fertility—Exercises 11.82, 11.83

Fuel Prices—Exercise 14.51

Gender Pay Gap— Exercise 1.71

German Import—Exercise 12.61

German Income—Exercise 13.53

GDP Growth—Exercise 16.11

Gold Price—Exercises 1.27, 16.5, 16.12

Government Net Lending Euro Area—Exercises 16.4, 16.23

Government Revenue Poland—Exercise 16.9

Government Spending France—Exercises 16.3, 16.22

Grade Point Averages—Examples 1.10, 2.3, Exercise 1.73

Granola—Exercise 6.84

Happiness Report Data —Exercises 9.66, 9.67, 9.73, 10.33, 10.34, 10.42, 10.43, 10.46, 11.92–11.96, 12.101, 12.102, 12.105

HealthTech—Exercise 2.45

HEI Cost Data Variable Subset—Examples 1.1, 1.2, 2.7, 7.5, Exercises 11.97–11.101, Chapter 13 Case Study, Case Studies 12.114–12.117

High Yield Index—Exercises 16.2, 16.7, 16.14

Hotel—Exercise 1.68

Hourly Earnings—Exercise 16.19

House Selling Price—Exercise 10.4, Case Study 12.110

House Starts—Exercise 16.1

Housing Starts—Exercises 1.28, 16.6, 16.13

ICU—Exercises 9.72, 9.74–9.78

Indonesia Revenue—Exercise 13.52

Inflation Euro Area—Exercises 13.16, 13.38

Insurance—Example 1.4

Japan Imports—Exercise 13.54

Library Survey—Exercise 1.7

M&A Survey—Exercise 1.17

Macro2009—Examples 1.5, 1.7

Macro2010—Example 13.8

Mendez Mortgage —Chapter 2 Case Study, Exercises 7.5, 7.35, 7.36

Metals—Exercise 13.59

Money UK—Exercises 13.31, 13.35

Mortgage Banks—Exercise 10.48

Motors—Exercises 12.13, 12.14, 12.48, 13.21

OECD Employment Gap Data—Exercises 16.18, 16.20, 16.40, 16.41

OECD Lab Force Australia—Exercises 13.61, 13.62

OECD Lab Force Italy—Exercises 13.57, 13.58

OECD Pay Gap Data—Exercises 16.42, 16.43

OECD Satisfaction—Exercise 11.86

Oulu Grades—Exercise 2.41

Pension Funds—Exercise 13.15

Performance—Exercise 12.82

PISA Sample —Exercises 1.8, 1.18, 7.23, 10.51–10.58, 12.92

Private Colleges—Exercises 11.87–11.91

Product Sales—Exercises 16.37, 16.39

Profit Margins—Exercise 16.21

Real GDP Germany—Exercise 1.50

RELEVANT Magazine—Examples 1.8, 2.19

Renewable Energy —Exercises 11.36, 11.52, 11.53, 11.85, 12.81, 12.104, 13.28

Retail Sales—Examples 11.2, 11.3, Exercises 13.13, 13.26

Returns—Exercise 1.38

Salary Study—Exercise 12.107

Sales and Distance—Exercise 1.66

Salorg—Exercise 12.72

Shiller House Price Cost—Example 16.2, Exercise 12.109

Shopping Times—Example 2.6, Exercise 1.72

Staten—Exercise 12.106

Stordata—Exercise 1.45

Storet—Exercise 10.47

Student GPA—Exercises 2.48, 11.81, 12.99, 12.108

Student Performance—Exercise 12.71

Study—Exercises 7.86

Study Data—Exercise 2.10

Sugar—Exercise 7.24

Sugar Coated Wheat—Exercise 6.83

Sun—Exercise 1.39

Supermarket—Exercise 11.11

Taiwan Real Estate—Exercises 8.34, 8.35, 9.68

Tennis—Exercises 1.15, 1.70

Tesla Stock Prices—Exercise 14.50

Thailand Consumption—Exercises 13.18, 13.36

TOC—Exercise 7.45

Trading Stocks—Exercise 11.51

Windows Wars—Example 1.3

World Bank Commodity Prices—Exercises 11.64–11.67

1 CHAPTER Describing Data: Graphical

CHAPTER OUTLINE

1.1 Decision Making in an Uncertain Environment

Random and Systematic Sampling

Sampling and Nonsampling Errors

1.2 Classification of Variables

Categorical and Numerical Variables

Measurement Levels

1.3 Graphs to Describe Categorical Variables

Tables and Charts

Cross Tables

Pie Charts

Pareto Diagrams

1.4 Graphs to Describe Time-Series Data

1.5 Graphs to Describe Numerical Variables

Frequency Distributions

Histograms and Ogives

Shape of a Distribution

Stem-and-Leaf Displays

Scatter Plots

1.6 Data Presentation Errors

Misleading Histograms

Misleading Time-Series Plots

Introduction

What are the projected sales of a new product? Will the cost of Google shares continue to increase? Who will win the 2020 UEFA Champions League? How satisfied were you with your last purchase at Starbucks, on alibaba.com, or at IKEA? If you were hired by the National Nutrition Council of your country, how would you determine if the Council’s guidelines on consumption of fruit, vegetables, snack foods, and soft drinks are being met? Do people who are physically active have healthier diets than people who are not physically active? What factors (perhaps disposable income or grants) are significant in forecasting the aggregate consumption of durable goods? What effect will a 2% increase in interest rates have on residential investment? Do

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