Contents
Contributorsix
Editorsandleadauthorsxiii
Forewordto PlanetaryExploration, Horizon2061 xv
Prefacexix
Acknowledgmentsxxv
1. Introductiontothe “Planetary Exploration,Horizon2061” foresight exercise
MichelBlanc,JonathanLewis,PierreBousquet,VéroniqueDehant, BernardFoing,ManuelGrande,LinliGuo,AuroreHutzler, JérémieLasue,MariaAntoniettaPerino,HeikeRauer, EleonoraAmmannito,andMariaTeresaCapria
1.Objectivesandmethodsoftheforesight exercise1
2.Introductiontothescientificexplorationof planetarysystems4
3.BuildingthefourpillarsoftheHorizon2061 foresightexercise9
4.Theenablingpowerofinternational collaboration15
References16
2. SolarSystem/ExoplanetScience Synergiesinamultidecadal perspective
HeikeRauer,MichelBlanc,JuliaVenturini,VéroniqueDehant, BriceDemory,CarolineDorn,ShawnDomagal-Goldman, BernardFoing,B.ScottGaudi,RavitHelled,KevinHeng, DanielKitzman,EiichiroKokubo,LouisLeSergeant d’Hendecourt,ChristophMordasini,DavidNesvorny,Lena Noack,MeravOpher,JamesOwen,ChrisParanicas,Sascha Quanz,LipingQin,IgnasSnellen,LeonardoTesti,Stéphane Udry,JoachimWambsganss,FrancesWestall,PhilippeZarka, andQiugangZong
1.SolarSystem/ExoplanetScienceSynergies: amajorassettoproperlyaddressthekeyscience questionsaboutplanetarysystems18
2.Overviewofplanetarymissionsinthecurrent spaceprogram19
3.Diversityofplanetarysystemsobjects(Q1)25
4.Diversityofplanetarysystemsarchitectures (Q2)29
5.Originsandformationofplanetarysystems (Q3)34
6.Howdoplanetarysystemswork?(Q4)41
7.Doplanetarysystemshostpotentialhabitats? (Q6)44
8.Strategiestosearchforlifeonexoplanetswith futurelargespacetelescopes(Q6)47
9.Conclusionsandrecommendations57
Acknowledgments59 References59
3. FromsciencequestionstoSolarSystem exploration
VéroniqueDehant,MichelBlanc,SteveMackwell, KristaM.Soderlund,PierreBeck,EmmaBunce, SébastienCharnoz,BernardFoing,ValerioFilice, LeighN.Fletcher,FrançoisForget,LéaGriton,HeidiHammel, DennisHöning,TakeshiImamura,CaitrionaJackman, YohaiKaspi,OlegKorablev,JérémyLeconte, EmmanuelLellouch,BernardMarty,NicolasMangold, PatrickMichel,AlessandroMorbidelli,OlivierMousis, OlgaPrieto-Ballesteros,TilmanSpohn,JuergenSchmidt, VeerleJ.Sterken,NicolaTosi,AnnC.Vandaele, PierreVernazza,AllonaVazan,andFrancesWestall
1.Introduction66
2.DiversityofSolarSystemobjects(Q1)68
3.Diversityofplanetarysystemarchitectureswithin theSolarSystem(Q2)96
4.Originofplanetarysystems105
5.HowdoestheSolarSystemwork?112
6.PotentialhabitatsintheSolarSystem138
7.Detectionoflife strategiesforthedetectionof biosignaturesintheSolarSystem143
8.Summary150
Acknowledgment155 References156
Furtherreading175
4. Fromplanetaryexplorationgoalsto technologyrequirements
JérémieLasue,PierreBousquet,MichelBlanc,NicolasAndré, PierreBeck,GillesBerger,ScottBolton,EmmaBunce, BaptisteChide,BernardFoing,HeidiHammel,Emmanuel Lellouch,LéaGriton,RalphMcNutt,SylvestreMaurice, OlivierMousis,MeravOpher,ChristopheSotin,DaveSenske, LindaSpilker,PierreVernazza,andQiugangZong
1.Introduction:fromEarth-basedtelescopesto samplereturnandhumanexploration178
2.ExploringtheSolarSystemwithEarthor space-basedtelescopes181
3.Insituspacemissionstothedifferentprovincesof theSolarSystem190
4.Conclusions:fromfuturemissionstoinfrastructure andtechnologyrequirements235
Acknowledgments240
References240
Furtherreading248
5. Enablingtechnologiesforplanetary exploration
ManuelGrande,LinliGuo,MichelBlanc,JorgeAlves, AdvenitMakaya,SamiAsmar,DavidAtkinson,Anne Bourdon,PascalChabert,SteveChien,JohnDay, AlbertoG.Fairén,AnthonyFreeman,AntonioGenova, AlainHerique,WlodekKofman,JosephLazio,OlivierMousis, GianGabrieleOri,VictorParro,RobertPreston, JoseA.Rodriguez-Manfredi,VeerleJ.Sterken,KeithStephenson, JoshuaVanderHook,J.HunterWaite,andSoniaZine
1.Introduction250
2.Advancedinstrumentationforthefuture253
3.Missionarchitecturesforthefuture272
4.System-leveltechnologiesto flythereand return279
5.Scienceplatforms291
6.Howtostaythereandhowtoreturn300
7.Disruptivetechnologies311
8.Conclusion316 Acknowledgments317 References317 Furtherreading324
6. Infrastructuresandservicesforplanetary exploration:reportonpillar4
BernardFoing,JonathanLewis,AuroreHutzler,MichelBlanc, NicolasAndré,AdrianoAutino,IlariaCinelli, ChristianeHeinicke,ChristinaPlainaki,andArminWedler
1.Introduction331
2.Genericinfrastructuresforplanetarymission operations334
3.Infrastructuresforsamplecollection,curation,and analysis340
4.Infrastructuresforlong-termhuman exploration346
5.Monitoringspaceweatherandnear-Earth objects354
6.Earth-basedsimulationfacilitiesandlaboratory experiments359
7.Datasystemsandvirtualobservatories362
8.Capacitybuildingandfutureworkforcefor planetaryscienceandexploration367
9.Conclusionsandperspectives370
Annex1:Plannedlaunchesofdeepspaceand planetarymissionsforthe2021 2030 decade372
Acknowledgments376
References376
Furtherreading379
7. Theenablingpowerofinternational cooperation
MariaAntoniettaPerino,EleonoraAmmannito,GabriellaArrigo, MariaTeresaCapria,BernardFoing,JamesGreen, MingLi,JyeongJaKim,MohammadMadi,MasamiOnoda, YoshioToukaku,VéroniqueDehant,MichelBlanc, HeikeRauer,PierreBousquet,JérémieLasue,ManuelGrande, LinliGuo,AuroreHutzler,andJonathanLewis
1.Introductionwithahistoricalperspective381
2.Theinternationaldimensionofthefourpillarsof planetaryexploration384
3.Internationalcollaborationworkinggroupstoward 2061:ISECG,COSPAR,andILEWGas examplesoffruitfulinternational collaboration390
4.Examplesofnationalprogramsimplementing internationalcollaboration392
5.Conclusions400 References406 H2061_Participants_list407 Index419
Contributors
JorgeAlves ESA-ESTEC,Noordwijk, Netherlands
EleonoraAmmannito ASI,Roma,Italy
NicolasAndré InstitutdeRechercheenAstrophysiqueetPlanétologie,ObservatoireMidiPyrénées,Toulouse,France
GabriellaArrigo ASI,Roma,Italy
SamiAsmar JetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,Pasadena,CA, UnitedStates
DavidAtkinson JetPropulsionLaboratory, CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,Pasadena, CA,UnitedStates
AdrianoAutino SpaceRenaissanceInternational,FinoMornasco(CO),Lombardia,Italy
PierreBeck Institutd ’ astrophysiqueetde planétologiedeGrenoble/ISTerre,Université GrenobleAlpes,Saint-Martin-d ’ Hères, France
GillesBerger InstitutdeRechercheenAstrophysiqueetPlanétologie,ObservatoireMidiPyrénées,Toulouse,France
MichelBlanc Laboratoired’Astrophysiquede Marseille,Marseille,France;Institutde RechercheenAstrophysiqueetPlanétologie, ObservatoireMidi-Pyrénées,Toulouse,France
ScottBolton SouthwestResearchInstitute (SwRI),SanAntonio,TX,UnitedStates
AnneBourdon LaboratoiredePhysiquedes Plasmas(LPP),Palaiseau,France
PierreBousquet CNES,Toulouse,France
EmmaBunce SchoolofPhysicsandAstronomy, UniversityofLeicester,Leicester,United Kingdom
MariaTeresaCapria INAF,Frascati,Italy
PascalChabert LaboratoiredePhysiquedes Plasmas(LPP),Palaiseau,France
SébastienCharnoz InstitutdePhysiquedu GlobedeParis,Paris,France
BaptisteChide InstitutdeRechercheenAstrophysiqueetPlanétologie,ObservatoireMidiPyrénées,Toulouse,France
SteveChien JetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,Pasadena,CA, UnitedStates
IlariaCinelli SGACSpaceGenerationAdvisory Council,Italy
JohnDay JetPropulsionLaboratory,California InstituteofTechnology,Pasadena,CA,United States
VéroniqueDehant RoyalObservatoryofBelgium,Brussels,Belgium;Universitécatholique deLouvain,Louvain-la-Neuve,Belgium
BriceDemory UniversityofBern,Switzerland
ShawnDomagal-Goldman NASAGodardSpace FlightCenter,Greenbelt,MD,UnitedStates
CarolineDorn UniversityofZürich,Zürich, Switzerland
AlbertoG.Fairén CentrodeAstrobiología (CSIC-INTA),Madrid,Spain
ValerioFilice RoyalObservatoryofBelgium, Brussels,Belgium
LeighN.Fletcher SchoolofPhysicsandAstronomy,UniversityofLeicester,Leicester, UnitedKingdom
BernardFoing LeidenUniversity&ESAESTEC,ILEWGLUNEXEuroMoonMars,Leiden,Netherlands
FrançoisForget LaboratoiredeMétéorologie Dynamique,InstitutPierreSimonLaplace, Paris,France
AnthonyFreeman JetPropulsionLaboratory, CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,Pasadena, CA,UnitedStates
B.ScottGaudi TheOhioStateUniversity, Columbus,OH,UnitedStates
AntonioGenova SapienzaUniversitàdiRoma, Roma,Italy
ManuelGrande AberystwythUniversity, Aberystwyth,UnitedKingdom
JamesGreen NASAHeadquarters,Washington,DC,UnitedStates
LéaGriton InstitutdeRechercheenAstrophysiqueetPlanétologie,ObservatoireMidi-Pyrénées,Toulouse,France;LESIA-CNRS,ParisMeudon,France
LinliGuo ChinaAcademyofSpaceTechnology (CAST),Beijing,China;ChinaAerospaceScience&TechnologyCorporation(CASC),Beijing,China
HeidiHammel AssociationofUniversitiesfor ResearchinAstronomy,Washington,DC, UnitedStates
ChristianeHeinicke ZARM,UniversityofBremen,Bremen,Germany
RavitHelled UniversityofZürich,Zürich, Switzerland
KevinHeng UniversityofBern,Switzerland
AlainHerique InstitutdePlanétologieetd’AstrophysiquedeGrenoble(IPAG),CNRS-UniversitéGrenoble-Alpes,Grenoble,France
DennisHöning VrijeUniversiteitAmsterdam, Amsterdam,Netherlands;GermanAerospace Centre(DLR),Berlin,Germany
JoshuaVanderHook JetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,Pasadena,CA,UnitedStates
AuroreHutzler ESA-ESTEC,Noordwijk, Netherlands
TakeshiImamura TheUniversityofTokyo, Bunkyo-ku,Japan
CaitrionaJackman DublinInstitutefor AdvancedStudies,Dublin,Ireland
YohaiKaspi WeizmannInstituteofScience, Rehovot,Israel
JyeongJaKim KIGAM,Daejeon,SouthKorea
DanielKitzman UniversityofBern,Switzerland
WlodekKofman InstitutdePlanétologieet d’AstrophysiquedeGrenoble(IPAG),CNRSUniversitéGrenoble-Alpes,Grenoble,France
EiichiroKokubo NationalAstronomical ObservatoryofJapan,Tokyo,Japan
OlegKorablev IKI,RussianAcademyof Sciences,Moscow,Russia
JérémieLasue InstitutdeRechercheen AstrophysiqueetPlanétologie,Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées,Toulouse,France
JosephLazio JetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,Pasadena,CA, UnitedStates
JérémyLeconte Laboratoired’astrophysiquede Bordeaux,UniversityofBordeaux,CNRS, Pessac,France
EmmanuelLellouch LESIA-CNRS,Paris-Meudon,France;LESIA,ObservatoiredeParis, Paris,France
LouisLeSergeantd’Hendecourt PIIM,CNRS, AMU,Marseille,France
JonathanLewis NASAJohnsonSpaceCenter, Houston,TX,UnitedStates
MingLi ChinaAcademyofSpaceTechnology (CAST),Beijing,China;ChinaAerospace Science&TechnologyCorporation(CASC), Beijing,China
SteveMackwell RiceUniversity,Houston,TX, UnitedStates
MohammadMadi JAXA,Tokyo,Japan
AdvenitMakaya ESA-ESTEC,Noordwijk, Netherlands
NicolasMangold LaboratoiredePlanétologieet Géodynamique,CNRS,UniversitédeNantes, Nantes,France
BernardMarty UniversitédeLorraine,VandoeuvrelèsNancy,France
SylvestreMaurice InstitutdeRechercheen AstrophysiqueetPlanétologie,Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées,Toulouse,France
RalphMcNutt JohnsHopkinsUniversity, AppliedPhysicsLaboratory,Laurel,MD, UnitedStates
PatrickMichel InstitutdeRechercheen AstrophysiqueetPlanétologie,Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées,Toulouse,France
AlessandroMorbidelli UniversitéCôted’Azur, CNRS,ObservatoiredelaCôted’Azur,Nice, France
ChristophMordasini UniversityofBern, Switzerland
OlivierMousis Laboratoired’Astrophysiquede Marseille,Aix-MarseilleUniversité,Marseille, France;InstitutuniversitairedeFrance(IUF), Paris,France
DavidNesvorny SouthwestResearchInstitute, SanAntonio,TX,UnitedStates
LenaNoack FreieUniversitätBerlin,Berlin, Germany
MasamiOnoda JAXA,Washington,DC,United States
MeravOpher BostonUniversity,Boston,MA, UnitedStates
GianGabrieleOri Int’lResearchSchoolof PlanetarySciences,Univeristàd’Annunzio, Pescara,Italy;IbnBattutaCentre,Université CadiAyyad,Marrakech,Morocco
JamesOwen ImperialCollegeLondon,London, UnitedKingdom
ChrisParanicas AppliedPhysicsLaboratory, JohnsHopkinsUniversity,Laurel,MD,United States
VictorParro CentrodeAstrobiología(CSICINTA),Madrid,Spain
MariaAntoniettaPerino ThalesAleniaSpace, Torino,Italy
ChristinaPlainaki ASI,Roma,Italy
RobertPreston JetPropulsionLaboratory, CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,Pasadena, CA,UnitedStates
OlgaPrieto-Ballesteros CentrodeAstrobiología (CSIC-INTA),Madrid,Spain
LipingQin UniversityofScienceandTechnology,Hefei,Anhui,China
SaschaQuanz ETHZürich,Zürich,Switzerland
HeikeRauer DLRInstituteofPlanetary Research,Berlin,Germany;FreieUniversität Berlin,Berlin,Germany
JoseA.Rodriguez-Manfredi CentrodeAstrobiología(CSIC-INTA),Madrid,Spain
JuergenSchmidt UniversityofOulu,Oulu, Finland
DaveSenske JetPropulsionLaboratory,CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,Pasadena,CA, UnitedStates
IgnasSnellen LeidenUniversity,Leiden, Netherlands
KristaM.Soderlund InstituteforGeophysics, JacksonSchoolofGeosciences,Universityof TexasatAustin,Austin,TX,UnitedStates
ChristopheSotin LaboratoiredePlanétologieet Géophysique,Nantes,France
LindaSpilker JetPropulsionLaboratory, CaliforniaInstituteofTechnology,Pasadena, CA,UnitedStates
TilmanSpohn GermanAerospaceCentre (DLR),Berlin,Germany
KeithStephenson ESA-ESTEC,Noordwijk, Netherlands
VeerleJ.Sterken ETHZürich,Zürich, Switzerland
LeonardoTesti EuropeanSouthernObservatory,München,Germany
NicolaTosi GermanAerospaceCentre(DLR), Berlin,Germany
YoshioToukaku JAXA,Tokyo,Japan
StéphaneUdry ObservatoiredeGenève,Genf, Switzerland
AnnC.Vandaele RoyalBelgianInstitutefor SpaceAeronomy,Brussels,Belgium
AllonaVazan TheOpenUniversityofIsrael, Ra’anana,Israel
JuliaVenturini InternationalSpaceScience Institute,Bern,Switzerland
PierreVernazza Laboratoired’Astrophysique deMarseille,Aix-MarseilleUniversité,Marseille,France
J.HunterWaite SouthwestResearchInstitute, UniversityofTexas,SanAntonio,TX,United States
JoachimWambsganss InternationalSpace ScienceInstitute,Bern,Switzerland;Heidelberg University,Germany
ArminWedler DLRInstituteofRoboticsand Mechatronics,Oberpfaffenhofen,Germany
FrancesWestall CentredeBiophysique Moléculaire,CNRS,Orleans,France
PhilippeZarka LESIA,ObservatoiredeParisCNRS-PSL,Paris,France
SoniaZine InstitutdePlanétologieet d’AstrophysiquedeGrenoble(IPAG), CNRS-UniversitéGrenoble-Alpes,Grenoble, France
QiugangZong InstituteofSpacePhysicsand AppliedTechnology,PekingUniversity, Beijing,China
Preface
MichelBlanc1, 11,PierreBousquet2, VéroniqueDehant3,BernardFoing4, ManuelGrande5,LinliGuo6,AuroreHutzler7, JérémieLasue1,JonathanLewis8, MariaAntoniettaPerino9,HeikeRauer10
1InstitutdeRechercheenAstrophysiqueetPlanétologie,ObservatoireMidi-Pyrénées,Toulouse, France, 2CNES,Toulouse,France, 3RoyalObservatoryofBelgium,Brussels,Belgium, 4LeidenUniversity&ESAESTEC,ILEWGLUNEXEuroMoonMars,Leiden,Netherlands, 5AberystwythUniversity,Aberystwyth,UnitedKingdom, 6ChinaAcademyofSpace Technology(CAST),Beijing,China, 7ESA/ESTEC,Norwijk,Netherlands, 8NASAJohnson SpaceCenter,Houston,TX,UnitedStates, 9ThalesAleniaSpace,Torino,Italy, 10DLRCenter forPlanetarySciences,Berlin,Germany; 11Laboratoired’AstrophysiquedeMarseille, Marseille,France
1.Originandmotivations
The PlanetaryExploration,Horizon2061 exerciseoriginatedfromaninitiativeof theAirandSpaceAcademy(https:// academieairespace.com/en/),apoolof knowledgeuniqueinEuropeaimedtopromotethedevelopmentofscienti fic,technical, cultural,andhumanactivitiesinthe fieldsof airandspace.Itsmembersareexpertsinthe differentactivitysectorsofaerospace:science,technologies,History,industry,services,laws,andsocietaldimensionsof aeronauticsandspaceactivities.In2015, membersofitsSectionI “Scientificknowledgeandapplicationsofairandspace ” and ofitsSectionII “Appliedsciencesand
technologyofairandspace” jointlyidentifiedtheneedsforalong-termforesighton thefutureofplanetaryexploration.This foresightshouldbedesignedtoinformtechnologyexpertsaboutthe “big” sciencequestionsofplanetarysciencesthatfuture scientificmissionsshouldcontributeto address.Inreturn,technologyexpertswould havethetasktoidentifythefuturetechnologies,infrastructures,andservicesthatwould beneededto flythesemissionsofadistant, multidecadalfuture.The “GroupedeTravail 2061,” GT2061forshort,formedjointlyby sectionsIandIIoftheAcademy,undertooka preliminarydesignofthisforesight.Aseries ofinternalmeetingsin2015and2016madeit possibletoidentifyfourcomplementaryand
highlyintricateddimensions,latercalledthe “pillars” ofplanetaryexploration,thatthe foresightexercisewouldhavetoaddress:
(1)themajorscientificquestionsonplanetary systemsforthedecadestocome;
(2)thedifferenttypesofplanetarymissions neededtoaddressthesequestions;
(3)thekeytechnologiesrequiredtomake thesemissionsfeasible;
(4)theground-basedandspace-basedinfrastructuresneededtosupportthem.
Theultimateobjectiveassignedtothe foresightexercisebytheGT2061wasto drawuptothe2061horizonalong-term pictureofthesefourpillarsviaaninternationaldialogueamongexpertsofthesepillars(scientists,engineers,managers)heavily involvedinSolarSystemexploration.The GT2061alsoproposedthemainscienti fic objectoftheexercise,itstemporalhorizon, itskeyplayers,and finallyamethodtocarry theforesightexerciseuptoitsconclusions.
2.Planetarysystems:themain scienti ficobjectforalong-term foresight
Forplanetaryscientistscontributingtothe exercise,itwasnaturalandimportanttouse theemergingunifyingparadigmoftheir interdisciplinaryresearch field,i.e.,the conceptof “planetarysystems” asthemain objectoftheforesight.Planetarysystemsare aclassofastrophysicalobjectswhichcover boththesolarsystem,giantplanetsystems, andextrasolarplanetarysystems,asChapters1 3ofthisbookillustrate.Thefast emergenceofthisconcept,followingthe discoveryofthe firstexoplanetbytheSwiss astronomersandNobelprizesMichelMayor andDidierQuelozin1995andthediscovery ofthousandsofexoplanetthatfollowed sincethen,isforplanetarysciencesthe equivalentofa “secondCopernicanrevolution”:justasCopernicremovedEarthfrom thecenteroftheworldtoplaceitinthe
familyofplanetsorbitingtheSun,thediscoveryofseveralhundredsofextrasolar planetarysystemssince25yearsplacesour SolarSystemasjustoneplanetarysystemin thevastfamilyofplanetarysystemspopulatingourGalacticneighborhood.Thismajor changeinperspectiveopensnewavenuesfor amoreintegrativeresearch,allowingplanetaryscientiststostudyallplanetarysystems asasingleclassofobjects,fromtheirformationincircumstellardiskstothepotential emergenceofhabitableworldsandoflife amongtheirplanetsandmoons.Asaprojectionintothedecadestocome,theHorizon 2061exercisehadtousethisunifyingparadigmasitsmainscientificobject.Consequently,thehigh-levelscientificquestions introducedinChapter1whichrepresentthe startingpointofourforesightareashortlist ofkeyquestionsaboutplanetarysystems: Howaretheyformed?Howdotheywork andevolve?Where,how,andunderwhich conditionsmaysomeoftheirobjectsbecome habitable?Dosomeoftheseobjectsharbor life?
3.Year2061:thelong-term horizonoftheforesight
Toaddressthislarge-scaleperspective aboutplanetarysystems,theforesighthadto encompassthewholesolarsystem,from Earthtoitsfarthestregions,itsboundaries withtheinterstellarmediumanditsscienti fic connectionswithstarsandexoplanets. Hencetheneedtogiveenoughtimetothe spaceprogramstocoversuchabroadscale, andtheneedtochooseamultidecadalhorizonfortheexercise.
Thechoiceoftheyear2061carriesthree symbolsconnectingustotheearlyhistoryof planetaryexploration.First,2061isthedate ofthenextreturnofHalley’scometintothe innerSolarSystem,remindingusoftheinternational fleetthatencounteredHalley’ s cometduringitspreviousvisitin1986.This memorabledateremindsEuropeanspace
scientistsoftheoutstandingsuccessofthe GiottomissionofESA,whichreturnedthe firstpicturesevertakenofacometarynucleus.2061willalsobethecentennialofthe firsthumanspace flight,theorbital flightof YuriGagarinonApril12,1961,andof PresidentKennedy ’s1961 “Moonaddress” tohisnationandCongress,whichlaunched theUnitedStatestotheconquestofthe Moon.Placingthehorizonofourforesight exerciseonthecentennialofthesethree majoreventsideallyconveysourintentionto encompassbothroboticandhumanexplorationinthesameperspective.Inaddition, thechoiceofthisdistanthorizon,well beyondtheusualtimeframesoftheplanningexercisesofspaceagencies,avoids possibleconfusionwiththemandpointsout tointernationalcollaborationasoneofthe originalspeci ficitiesofourexercise.
4.Horizon2061:keyplayersand mainmotivations
Thechoiceofthislong-termperspective allowedtofreetheimaginationoftheparticipants:planetaryscientistswereinvitedto identifythemostimportantscientificquestionschallengingourunderstandingof planetarysystemsindependentlyofthe technicalfeasibilityoffuturespacemissions thatcouldaddressthem;engineersand technologyexpertswereinvitedtoexplore innovativetechnicalsolutionsto flythese futuremissionsby2061.Italsostimulateda freedialogueamongthem.Fivemainobjectiveswereassignedtothisdialogue:
1.Identifythe “big” sciencequestionsthatwill driveplanetarysciencesinthecoming decades;
2.Provideavarietyofnotionalspacemission conceptsthatwilladdressthese “big questions” ;
3.Identifythetechnologiesandinfrastructures thatwillbeneededto flythesemissions;
4.Inspirecoordinationandcollaborationsbetweenthedifferentplayersofplanetary exploration;
5.Sharewithpublic/privateleadersandthe publicthemajorscienti ficandtechnological challengesthatwilldriveplanetaryexplorationinthedecadestocome.
5.Developmentschemeofthe exercise
Inthedesignofplanetarymissions,the scientistswhodefinescienti ficobjectivesfor anewmissionandthespaceagencyspecialistswhodesignthemissionuseto communicateviaaveryefficienttoolcalled the “sciencetraceabilitymatrix”.Forshort, thismatrixdescribesthelogicallinksconnectingthescienceobjectivesofthemission toitsmoredetailedobservationrequirementsandtothetechnicalrequirements thatthescientificpayload,thespaceplatformstobeusedandthemissionarchitecturewillhavetofulfill.
Basedonasimilardialogueamongscientists,engineers,andmanagers,itisno surprisethattheHorizon2061foresightused thissametooltodesignthefour “pillars” of theexercise.AsChapter1shows,westarted fromthehigh-levelscienceobjectivesto definetheobservationstobeperformed, thenthemissionstobe flownand finallythe technologies,infrastructures,andservices neededto flythesemissions.Thislogical development,whosecomplexitycomesfrom itscoverageofthewholesolarsystem,was accomplishedinthreesteps,from2016to 2019,usingthreesuccessiveinternational meetings.
The fi rststepwasaccomplishedbya jointISSI-Europlanetforumhostedbythe InternationalSpaceScienceInstitutein
Bern,Switzerland,fromSeptember13 15, 2016.Twodaysofscienti fi cpresentations anddiscussionsinvolvingabout50scientistsandengineersledtotheformulationof thesixmajorscienti fi cquestions(pillar1) andoftheobservationsneededtoaddress thesequestions.Duringthethirdday,scientistsandengineersdiscussedthetechnologiesneededto fl ytheplanetary missions(pillar2)thatwouldperformthese observations.
Thesecondstepwasthecommunity workshop"TechnologiesandInfrastructures forPlanetaryExploration"hostedbythe EcolePolytechniqueFédéraledeLausanne (EPFL)fromApril23 25,2018.Thissecond workshopdiscussedthetechnologies(pillar 3)andinfrastructures(pillar4)neededfor thefuturemissionsidentifiedinstep1.
Thethirdstepwasacolloquiumhosted bytheInstitutdeRechercheenAstrophysiqueetPlanétologie(IRAP)andObservatoire Midi-Pyrénées(OMP)inToulouse,France, withthesponsorshipofCOSPAR,from September11 13,2019.Itreviewedeach pillarusinglessonslearntfromtheprevious stepsandadditionalcontributionsand definedamethodtodrawthe finalconclusionsoftheexerciseandtoreporttothe scienti ficcommunity.
Afourthmeeting,theISSI-Europlanet forumon “SolarSystem/exoplanetscience synergies,” hostedbyISSIinBernon February19and20,2019,exploredhow thesesynergieshelpunderstandplanetary systems.Theconclusionsofthisforum, whichprovidedtheimportantexoplanet contexttotheHorizon2061exercise,are presentedin Chapter2 ofthisbook.
Preliminaryconclusionsofthisexercise werepresentedatthejointmeetingofthe EuropeanPlanetaryScienceCongress (EPSC)andoftheDivisionofPlanetarySciencesoftheAmericanAstronomicalSociety (DPS-AAS)inGenevaonSeptember20,
2019.Near- finalconclusionswerepresented attheSydneyvirtualCOSPARScientific AssemblyfromFebruary1 3,2021,andreportsonthese finalconclusionsweregiven attheInternationalAstronauticalCongress inDubaiduringtheweekofOctober25 29, 2021.
Programsofallthesemeetingsandmost oftheirpresentationscanbefoundonthe dedicatedHorizon2061webpage: https:// horizon2061.cnrs.fr.
6.What’snext?
ContinuationoftheHorizonforesight exerciseinthecomingyearswillbeneeded tointegratenewscienti ficdiscoveriesand takeintoaccountthenewcapacitiesoffered byemergingtechnologies.Tothisend,a “Horizon2061” associationsetupbythe editorsofthisbookwillcontinuetheirwork bymeansofregularupdatesofthelong-term foresight,forinstance,every5years,andof focusedmeetingsonspecificsubjectsonly super ficiallytouchedoninthisbook.We hopethattheyoungergenerationwilljoinin andtaketheleadintheimplementationof thesenewactivities.
7.Ourdreamsfor2061
Amongthemanyperspectivesthisbook offersforthefutureofplanetaryexploration, wewouldlikeinconclusiontoemphasizea fewthatarerepresentativeofourdreamsfor 2061.
By2061,characterizationofallclassesof solarsystemobjectsandsecondarysystems, combinedwithprogressinthedetectionand characterizationofexoplanetsandtheir moons,rings,andmagnetospheres,will haveintegratedthescienceofplanetary systemsandhelpedusunderstandmore
deeplythesimilaritiesanddifferencesbetweenoursolarsystem,giantplanetsystems,andextrasolarplanetarysystems.
By2061,spectacularprogressinrobotics,arti fi cialintelligence,miniaturization,andotherkeyplatformtechnologies willmakeitpossibletoadaptscience platformstocomplexoperationsinthediversityofextremeenvironmentsofsolar systemobjects,fromthesurfacesandsubsurfacesofterrestrialplanetstotheicy crustsandsubsurfaceoceansofgiant planetmoons.
By2061,comprehensiveexplorationofthe differentfamiliesofsolarsystemobjectswill haveuniquelyinformedourunderstanding oftheformationscenariosofthesolarsystem,itsgiantplanetsystems,andextrasolar planetarysystems.
By2061,themaincandidatehabitable worldsinthesolarsystemwillhavebeen characterizedbydedicatedplanetarymissions,fromMarstothedifferentocean worlds,possiblyleadingtothediscoveryofa secondgenesisoflifesomewhereintheSolar System.
By2061,interplanetarytelecommunications,navigation,spaceweather,sample curation,etc.,willhaveevolvedintodistributednetworksextensivelyusingassetsonthe Moon,otherbodies,andininterplanetary spacetoprovideSolarSystem wideservices todeepspaceexplorationmissions.
By2061,thedifferentinformationsystems archivinganddisseminatingthehugevolumesofscienti ficdataproducedbytelescopes,deepspacemissions,andlaboratory experimentswillhaveevolvedintoanintegratedanddistributedvirtualobservatory offeringlimitlessnavigationintheSolar Systemtoscienti ficusersandthepublic.
Sometimebefore2061,residentsofa permanentlunarbasewillfollowviathe interplanetaryinternetthe firstlandingof humansonMars.
Willtheseperspectives,andmanymore offeredinthisbook,cometrue?Rather,will someofthemfadeawayandnewones emergeasdecadeswillfollowoneanother? Mostcertainlyyes!Intheend,themain purposeofthisbookisnotsomuchtomake accuratepredictionsonevolutionsandtrends thatwillmaterializedecadesfromnow,asit istostimulatecontinuedexchangesofideas betweenallplayersofplanetaryexploration, forthesakeofbuildingabrilliantand excitingfutureforthisuniqueendeavorin whicheveryhumanbeingandeverytalent cantakepart.We fi rmlybelievethatthe stimulatingdialogueamongscientists, engineers,andmanagersthathasdriventhe writingofthisbookwillcontinuetopush fartherthefrontiersofourscienti fi cunderstandingoftheSolarSystem,aswellasof ourtechnicalcapacitiestounravelthe secretsofitsmostextremeenvironments.
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