ManagingwateronChina'sfarms:institutions, policiesandthetransformationofirrigation underscarcity1stEditionHuang
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CenterforChineseAgriculturalPolicy,ChineseAcademy ofSciences,andSchoolofAdvancedAgriculturalSciences, PekingUniversity,Beijing,People’sRepublicofChina
DepartmentofAgriculturalEconomics&Agribusiness, UniversityofArkansas,Fayetteville,AR,USA
CenterforChineseAgriculturalPolicy,ChineseAcademy ofSciences,andSchoolofAdvancedAgriculturalSciences, PekingUniversity,Beijing,People’sRepublicofChina
ScottRozelle
FreemanSpogliInstituteforInternationalStudies, StanfordUniversity,Stanford,CA,USA
Dr.JikunHuang istheFounderandDirectoroftheCenterforChineseAgricultural PolicyinChineseAcademyofSciences,ProfessoratInstituteofGeographical SciencesandNaturalResourcesResearchandSchoolofAdvancedAgricultural SciencesinPekingUniversity.FellowoftheWorldAcademyofSciences (TWAS)fortheadvancementofscienceindevelopingcountries,andHonorary LifeMemberoftheInternationalAssociationofAgriculturalEconomists.Heis alsovice-presidentoftheChineseAssociationofAgriculturalEconomics, vice-presidentoftheChineseAssociationofAgri-technologyEconomics,andthe electedpresidentoftheAsianAssociationofAgriculturalEconomists.Hereceived hisBSdegreefromNanjingAgriculturalUniversityin1984andhisPhDinAgriculturalEconomicsfromtheUniversityofthePhilippinesatLosBanosin1990.His researchcoversawiderangeofissuesonChina’sagriculturalandruraldevelopment,includingworkonagriculturalR&Dpolicy,waterandlandpolicy,agricultural priceandtradepolicy,fooddemandandsupplyprojection,andeconomicsof climatechange.HereceivedAwardforChina’s10outstandingyouthscientistsin 2002,OutstandingAchievementAwardforOverseasReturningChinesein2003, OutstandingContributionAwardonManagementSciencein2008,andIRRI’s OutstandingAlumniAwardin2010.Hehaspublishedabout460journalpapers, ofwhichabout240werepublishedininternationaljournals,including Science and Nature.Heisthecoauthorof19books.
Dr.ScottRozelle istheHelenF.FarnsworthSeniorFellowandtheco-directorofthe RuralEducationActionProgramintheFreemanSpogliInstituteforInternational StudiesatStanfordUniversity.HisresearchfocusesalmostexclusivelyonChina andisconcernedwithagriculturalpolicy,includingthesupply,demand,andtrade inagriculturalprojects;theemergenceandevolutionofmarketsandothereconomic institutionsinthetransitionprocessandtheirimplicationsforequityandefficiency; andtheeconomicsofpovertyandinequality,withanemphasisonruraleducation, health,andnutrition.Rozelle’spapershavebeenpublishedintopacademicjournals, including Science, Nature, AmericanEconomicReview,andthe Journalof EconomicLiterature.HereceivedhisPhD(1990)fromCornellUniversity.
Chinaisnotparticularlywellendowedwithwater,yetoverthepastseveraldecades, waterhasbeentreatedasacheapresourceandusedtoexpandagriculturaland industrialproduction.WhileChina’swaterresourcesaresubstantialcompared withthoseofsomeothercountries,itspopulationisalsomuchlarger.Furthermore, itswaterisnotevenlydistributedacrossthecountryoracrossmajoragriculturalregions.Thenation’swaterresourcesarehighlyconcentratedinsouthernChina,while northernChina,theareanorthoftheYangtzeRiverBasin,hasonlyone-fourththe per-capitawaterendowmentoftheSouthandone-tenththeworldaverage(Ministry ofWaterResources,2012).ThelowerlevelsofrainfallinnorthernChinaarealso muchmoreseasonalthaninthesouth,withmorethan70%oftherainfalling betweenJuneandSeptember.Yetdespitehavingonly24%ofthenation’swater resources,northernChinacontainsmorethan65%ofChina’scultivatedland,and remainsanimportantagriculturalregionandthesiteofmuchofChina’sindustrial production.ItaccountsforroughlyhalfofChina’sgrainproductionandover45%of nationalGDP(MinistryofWaterResources,2012;SSB,2012).
Increasingindustrialoutput,expandingagriculturalproduction,andrising domesticincomeshaveallcontributedtohigherdemandforwaterresourcesin China.From1949to2011,percapitauseincreased136%,andtotalwaterusein Chinaincreased492%(MinistryofWaterResources,2012;SSB,2012).Water usehasincreasedacrossallsectors.AlthoughChina’sirrigatedareahascontinued toexpandandagriculturestillaccountsforthemajorityofwaterconsumption, industry’ssharehasbeengrowingrapidly,risingfrom2to24%from1949to 2011.ThesechangeshavebeenputtingaseriousstrainonChina’swatersupply, raisingthequestionofwhethersuchgrowthratesaresustainable.
Indeed,water-relatedproblemshavebeenspringingupacrossnorthernChina, affectingtheavailabilityofbothsurfacewaterandgroundwater.Theriversystems thatsupplywatertomanyirrigationdistrictssometimesdonotprovidesufficient waterbecauseupstreamuserswithdrawmorewaterthantheyareallocatedby law.Becauseofexcessivewithdrawals,theYellowRiverhasrundrybeforereaching theoceanforatleastsomeperiodduringmostyearssincethemid1970s(Wang, 1999).WithdrawalsfromtheFuyangRiver,intheupperpartoftheHaiRiverBasin, haveseverelydepletedthemainriver(Wangetal.,2005).In1977 1997,almostno flowwasrecordedattheAixingzhuanghydrologicalmonitoringstation,nearthe middleoftheriverbasin.CangzhouPrefecture,downstreamfromtheFuyangRiver, nowreceivesonly10%ofthesurfacewaterthatitreceivedinthe1970s.
Chinahasalsoseenasteepfallinthelevelofthewatertableandrelatedenvironmentalissues.InseveralpartsoftheFuyangRiverBasin,theshallow-watertable
AbetterunderstandingofwaterflowsinChinawillhelpclarifyhowwaterallocationpolicieswillaffectaggregateagriculturalproduction.Groundwaterrecharge rates,andthesourcesoftheserecharges,willhelpidentifyareaswherewatertables areparticularlythreatenedandtheinteractionbetweensurface-wateruseandfalling groundwatertables.Finally,understandingthehydrologyofriverbasinswillhelp determinehowpoliciestoencouragewatersavingupstreamwillaffectdownstream users.
Perhapsthemostimportantfactordeterminingtheeffectofwaterscarcityon agriculturalproductionistheresponseofindividualfarmersandlocalwater managers.Becausetheyhavetheautonomytomakesuchdecisionsasthevolume ofwaterappliedtocrops,thetimingofwaterallocation,andwhichirrigationtechnologiesandpracticestouse,theincentivestheyfacewilldeterminehoweffectively waterconservationpoliciesarecarriedoutatthegroundlevel.Awidevarietyof institutionalresponseshavebeenestablishedtoencouragefarmersandlocalleaders toadoptwater-savingpractices,includingreformingirrigationmanagement,raising waterpricesandreformingwaterfeecollection,andinvestinginwater-saving irrigationtechnology.Weaskhowtheseinstitutionswork,whichtypesarethe mosteffective,whatthedeterminantsofadoptingsuchmeasuresare,andhow theyaffectagriculturalproduction.Itisalsoimportanttoempiricallyexamine howtheincentivesfacedbylocalwatermanagersinducedifferentwaterallocation policies,thusallowingforabetterunderstandingofhowpolicychangesaffectwater deliveries,andthus,agriculturalproduction.
Thisbookisorganizedintofoursections.Thefirstsectionistosetthestagefor theresearch,andthesecondandthirdsectionsaretoexaminegroundwaterandsurfacewatermanagementseparately.Thefourthsectionistodiscussthefutureoptions forwatermanagementinChina.Withinthefirstsection,fourchaptersareincluded. ChapterWaterScarcityintheNorthernChinaexaminesthewaterscarcitysituation inthemajorstudyregion,theNorthernChina;chapterIrrigation,Agricultural ProductionandRuralIncomeanalyzesthecontributionofirrigationtoChina’sagriculturalproductionandruralincome;andchapterChina’sAgriculturalWaterPolicy Reforms:IncreasingInvestment,ResolvingConflicts,andRevisingIncentivesidentifiesthemajorissuesrelatedwithwatermanagementinstitutionandpoliciesin China.ChapterWaterSurveyDatasummarizeswatersurveydatausedforallanalysisinthebook.Forthesecondsection,chaptersEvolution,Determinants,and ImpactsofTubewellOwnership/Management,DevelopmentofGroundwater MarketsinChina,andImpactsofGroundwaterMarketsonAgriculturalProduction inChinaincludestudiesoftheevolution,determinants,andimpactsoftubewell ownership/management,anddevelopmentandimpactsofGroundwatermarkets. Thethirdsectioncoversfourchapters.ChapterWaterUserAssociationsand Contracts:EvolutionandDeterminantsanalyzestheevolutionanddeterminants ofWUAsandContracts;chapterDeterminantsofContractualFormanalyzesthe determinantsofcontractualform;chapterImpactsofSurfaceWaterManagement Reformslooksattheimpactsofsurfacewatermanagementreforms;andchapter EvaluationofWaterUserAssociationsisabouttheevaluationofWUAs.Thefinal
section(sectionfour)discussesthefutureoptionsfromthreeaspects,theirrigation waterpricingpolicy(chapter:IrrigationWater-PricingPolicy),waterallocation throughwaterrightsinstitution(chapter:WaterAllocationThroughWaterRights Institution),andadoptionofwatersavingtechnology(chapter:Adoptionof Water-SavingTechnology).Throughoutthebook,thefocusisonwaterusedfor irrigationinagriculturalproductioninruralChina.
Thisbookmainlyincludesthefollowingfindings.
First,groundwaterisprogressivelyusedinChina,andthisisprovokingawater tablefalling,especiallyinnorthernChina.IncreasingevidenceindicatesthatChina isfacingaseriouswaterscarcity,especiallyinnorthernChina.Thisscarcityisdue notonlytoafallingwatersupply,butalsotorisingwaterdemand.Withthedecline ofsurface-waterresources,farmersinnorthernChinahavebeguntoturnmore towardgroundwaterresources.In2004,mostirrigationinnorthernChinacame fromgroundwaterresources;theshareoflandirrigatedbygroundwaterwasnearly 70%.Unfortunately,thisrelianceongroundwatermayhaveresultedinanumberof adverseenvironmentaleffects.Inthelate1990stheannualrateofoverdraft exceeded9billionm3.Morethanone-thirdoftheoverdraftwasfromdeepwells, manyofwhicharenonrenewable(atleastintheshorttomediumrun).Thedrop inthedeepgroundwatertableinsomeareashasexceeded2mperyear.
Second,irrigationhasapositiveimpactonagriculturalproduction.Becausea largershareoftheirincomecomesfromcropping,farmersinpoorareasincrease theirincomesrelativelymorethanfarmersinricherareas.Irrigationalsohelpsalleviateincomeinequalityinruralareas.Inaddition,evenafteraccountingforthe increasedcapitalcostsandproductioncostsassociatedwithirrigation,returns frominvestmentsinirrigationarepositiveinthemajorityofvillagesthathave investedinnewirrigationsystems.AlthoughinvestmentsshouldnotbemadetoincreaseirrigatedareainallvillagesinallofChina,inpoorareas,irrigationprojects shouldstillbegivenextraweightasadevelopmentstrategy,especiallyifbenefits outweighcosts.Anationalwatershortagewillrequiresomeformofwaterrationing. Ourcost-benefitanalysisindicatesthatsomecommunitiesbenefitmorefromaccess toirrigationthandoothers.Thisfindingofferssomeguidanceonhowwatercould potentiallybeallocated.Watershouldbeshiftedawayfromvillageswherethecost ofirrigationoutweighsthebenefits,andredirectedtothosevillagesthataremore reliantonirrigation.
Third,theevolutionoftubewellownershipfromcollectivetoprivatehaspromotedtheadjustmentofcroppingpatternsandacceleratedthefallingroundwater tableintheNorthChinaPlain.Sincetheearly1980scollectiveownershipoftubewellshaslargelybeenreplacedbyprivateownership.Mostprivatetubewellsarestill ownedjointlybyseveralindividualsasshareholdingtubewells.Changesofnatural resourceendowments(fallsingroundwatertableandreduceddeliveriesofsurface
Eighth,considerablegainsfromwaterreallocationamongdifferentusescanbe expected.Whenwaterismoveddownstreamtohigher-valueagriculturaluseunder conditionsoffreetrade,theeconomicbenefit,intermsoftheincreasedvalueofagriculturalproduction,wasaround$129millionperyear.Iffarmersinwater-exporting regionshadthepropertyrightstotransferredwater,incomefromwatersaleswould morethanoffsettheforgoneincomefromreducedagriculturalproduction.Theincomefromwatersalesisestimatedtobearound$65millionperyear.Intheabsence ofpropertyrights,thelostvalueofagriculturalproductionlowersfarmhousehold incomessubstantially.Conversely,withrevenuefromthesaleofwater,farmhouseholdincomesintheexportingregionswouldrisesubstantially.Importantly,without compensationtheregionswiththelowestincomesarelikelytobeaffectedthemost bywatertransfers.Watermarketswouldprovideamechanismtotransferwaterto highervalueusesonalargescaleandtotheotherproductiveuses,suchasindustry, andtheenvironment.However,duetomanybarriers(suchasexistingadministrative framework,smallscaleoffarmingandtheconsequenttransactionscostsofimplementingwaterpropertyrights),thewaterpropertyrightsinChinastillhasnot beenestablished.
Finally,ouranalysishasshownthatadoptionofwater-savingtechnologies dependsstronglyonincentives.Farmersandvillagesalikeappeartobehaverationallyintheirdecisiontoadoptwater-savingtechnologies,makingacalculated cost-benefitanalysis.Unsurprisingly,factorsthatmakeadoptioncheaperorwater morevaluablehaveasignificantpositiveimpactontechnologyadoption.This includesperceivedwaterscarcity,governmentalfinancialsupportandextensionservices,averageincome,andtheproductionofhighlyvaluedcashcrops.Conversely, factorsthatmakewaterlessvaluablehaveasignificantnegativeimpactontechnologyadoption.Theavailabilityofnonagriculturalemploymentisanattractivealternativetoinvestinginbetterirrigationtechnology.Likewise,whenavillagehasa highrateofarablelandpercapita,itislessurgentthateverypieceoflandisused asefficientlyaspossible.Ofthedifferenttypesofwater-savingtechnologies, household-basedtechnologieshavegrownmostrapidly,andtraditionaltechnologies havethehighestratesofadoption.Themostsuccessfultechnologieshavebeen highlydivisibleandlowcostonesthatcanbeimplementedwithoutcollectiveaction orlargefixedinvestments.Technologiesthatdonotfitthisdescriptionareadopted onamorelimitedscale,atleastinpartduetothefailureofpolicymakersto overcometheconstraintstoadoption.Farmersinmanypartsoftheregionhave notadoptedevenrudimentarywater-savingtechnologies.Thissuggeststhatthe incentivesarenotinplacetoencourageefficientwateruse.
Boxer,B.,2001.ContradictionsandchallengesinChina’swaterpolicydevelopment.Water International26(3),335 341. Chen,L.,2002.Revolutionarymeasures:watersavingirrigation.In:TheNationalWater SavingWorkshop.Beijing,China(InChinese).
China’swaterresourceavailabilityisamongthelowestworldwide.Themostrecent estimateoftheannualrenewableinternalfreshwaterresourcespercapitais2093m3 (FAO,AQUASTAT),whichisfarbelowtheestimatedworldaverageof8349m3 (ESCAP,2010).Inaddition,waterresourcesarenotevenlydistributed.Northern Chinahasonly21%ofthecountry’swaterendowment(MinistryofWaterResources ofChina,2011).NorthernChina,however,remainsanimportantregion,withabout 35%ofthetotalpopulation,38%ofthenation’sGDP,andalmosthalfofthegrain production(NBSC,2013).InChina,81%ofwatersupplycomesfromsurfacewater resourcesandgroundwatersupplyonlyoccupies18.8%oftotalwatersupply (Table1.1).Inadditiontoafewprovinces,mostprovincesrelyonthesupplyofsurfacewaterresources.In2012,groundwatersupplyinfiveprovincesoccupiedmore than50%oftotalwatersupply;theyarealllocatedinnorthernChina(Hebei,Henan, Beijing,Shanxi,andInnerMongoliaprovinces).Forotherprovinces,thepercentagesofgroundwatersupplyarealllowerthan50%;someareevenlessthan5% (suchasShanghai,Zhejiang,Chongqing,Guizhou,Hubei,Guangdong,Jiangsu, Jiangxi,YunnanandGuanxiProvinces).
China’srapidlygrowingindustrialsectorandanincreasinglywealthyurbanpopulationcompetewithfarmersforlimitedwaterresources.Between1949and2004 totalwateruseinChinaincreasedby430%,alevelofgrowththatissimilartothe world’saverageincreaseof400%butgreaterthantheaveragegrowthratefordevelopingcountries(Wangetal.,2005).Industrializationandurbanizationhavecaused China’swatertobeincreasinglyallocatedtononagriculturaluses.From1949to 2012theshareofagriculturalwaterusedeclinedfrom97%to63%(NBSC, 2014).Atthesametimetheshareofindustrialwateruseincreasedfrom2%to 23%andtheshareofdomesticwateruseincreasedfrom1%to12%.Before 2000,therewasalmostnowaterallocatedforenvironmentaluse.In2012,about 1.8%ofwaterwasallocatedforenvironmentaluse.However,waterallocation amongsectorsdifferedbyprovinces(Table1.1).Among31provinces,52percentageofthem(16provinces)allocatedmorethan63%(nationalaveragelevel)ofwatertoagriculturalsectors,andmostofthem(exceptGuangxi,Yunnan,andJiangxi provinces)locateinnorthernChina.Forother48%ofprovinces(15provinces,most locatinginsouthernChina),thepercentagesofwaterallocationtoagriculturalsector arelowerthannationalaveragelevel,andnearhalfofthem(sevenprovinces)are evenlowerthan50%.
IncreasingevidenceindicatesthatChinaisfacingseriouswaterscarcity,especiallyinnorthernChina.Thisscarcityisduenotonlytoafallingwatersupply butalsotorisingwaterdemand.Onthesupplyside,thetotalestimatedwaterresourcesofChinadroppedby16.5%from1997to2011(MinistryofWater Resources,2012;MinistryofWaterResourcesofChina,2011).Oneofthemost obviouspiecesofevidenceisthatsurfacewaterresourcesinsomepartsofChina arediminishing.From1980to2000,theflowsofriversinseveralmajorriverbasins innorthernChinahavedeclinedsignificantly.Forexample,therunoffintheHai RiverBasindecreasedby41%(MinistryofWaterResources,2007).Therunoff inotherriverbasins theLiao,Yellow,andHuaiRiverBasins alsohavefallen by9%to15%.Becauseofthisdecline,someriverbasins(eg,theHaiRiverBasin andtheYellowRiverBasin)havechangedfromopentoclosedonesinsomeyears; inotherwords,throughouttheyear,waterdoesnotflowintothelowerreachesofthe basin(WangandHuang,2004).Inthefuture,withsocioeconomicdevelopmentand thepressureofclimatechange,thesupplyofsurfacewaterresourcesforthoseriver basinslocatinginnorthernChina(HaiRiverBasin,HuaiRiverBasin,YellowRiver Basin,SonghuajiangRiverBasin,andLiaoRiverBasin)willfaceobviousdecline whilewaterdemandwillincrease,whichwillresultintheincreaseofawater supply-and-demandgap(Wangetal.,2013).
Withthedeclineofsurfacewaterresources,farmersinnorthernChinahave beguntoturntowardgroundwaterresources.Infact,groundwaterhasbecomethe dominantsourceofwaterforirrigationinnorthernChina.Intheearly1950s,there wasalmostnogroundwater-basedirrigationinnorthernChina(Wangetal.,2007). However,bythe1970sgroundwaterirrigationhadrisentoaccountfor30%ofirrigation.Bythemid-1990s,adecadeorsoafterthelaunchingoftheeconomicreforms,groundwaterirrigationcontinuedtoexpand,reaching58%in1995.In 2004,mostirrigationinnorthernChinacamefromgroundwaterresources;theshare oflandirrigatedbygroundwaterwasnearly70%.
Unfortunately,thisrelianceongroundwatermayhaveresultedinanumberof adverseenvironmentaleffects.AccordingtoareportbytheMinistryofWaterResourcesin1996,theoverdraftofgroundwaterisoneofChina’smostserious resourceproblems(MinistryofWaterResourcesandNanjingWaterInstitute, 2004).Inthelate1990stheannualrateofoverdraftexceeded9billionm3.More thanone-thirdoftheoverdraftwasfromdeepwells,manyofwhicharenonrenewable(atleastintheshorttomediumrun).Thedropinthedeepgroundwatertablein someareashasexceeded2mperyear.BasedonourownpreviousresearchinHebei Province,theshallowgroundwatertablealsoisfallinginsomeareas about1mper year(WangandHuang,2004).Beyondthedropofthegroundwatertable,overdraftinggroundwatercancauselandsubsidence,theintrusionofseawaterintofreshwateraquifers,anddesertification(Wangetal.,2007).
Inadditiontodecliningwateravailability,anupsurgeindemandisincreasing thepressureonthesupplyofirrigationwater.Between1949and2004totalwater useinChinaincreasedby430%,alevelofgrowththatissimilartotheworld’s averageincreaseof400%,butgreaterthantheaveragegrowthratefordeveloping
fast.DuringthetimeperiodoftheGreatLeapForward(thelate1950sandearly 1960s),however,statisticalreportingwassuspiciousandmanyirrigationprojects thatwerestartedduringtheperiodwere badlyengineeredandoftenabandoned. AftertherecoveryfromtheGreatLeapForwardandthefaminethatfollowed,statisticalagenciesrecoveredandstatistical seriessincethemid-1960sarerelatively consistent.
Sincethemid-1960s,theinstallationandexpansionoftubewellsacrossChina hasbeennothinglessthanphenomenal.In1965itisreportedthattherewereonly 150,000tubewellsinallofChina(Shi,2000).Sincethen,thenumberhasgrown steadily.Bythelate1970s,thereweremorethan2.3milliontubewells.Afterstagnatingduringtheearly1980s,aperiodoftimewhenirrigatedarea,especiallythat servicedbysurfacewater,fell,thenumberoftubewellscontinuedtorise.By1997, thereweremorethan3.5milliontubewells;by2003,thenumberroseto4.7million.
Thepathoftubewellexpansionshownintheofficialdataislargelysupportedby theinformationwehavefromtheNCWRS.Duringthesurveyweaskedthevillage leaderstotellusabouttheinitialyearinwhichsomeone(eitherthevillageleadershiporanindividualfarmer)inhis/hervillagesankatubewell.Accordingtothe data,wefindthatby1960,lessthan6%ofvillageshadsunktheirfirsttubewell. Overthenext20years,betweentheearly1960sandtheonsetofreform,thepercentageofvillageswithtubewellsrosetomorethan50%.Duringthenext10years,between1982and1992,thenumberofvillageswithtubewellsrosebyonly7%.After theearly1990s,however,thepaceoftheexpansionofgroundwateraccelerated,and by2004,almost75%ofvillageshadwellsandthusaccesstogroundwater.
Whilethegrowthoftubewellsreportedbytheofficialstatisticalsystemis impressive,wehavereasontobelievethenumbersarefarunderstated.According totheNCWRS,onaverage,eachvillageinnorthernChinacontained35wellsin 1995.Whenextrapolatedregionally,thismeansthatthereweremorethan 3.5milliontubewellsinthe14provincesinnorthernChinaby1995.Asimportant, accordingtoourdata,therateofnewwellinstallationhasgrownrapidly.By2004, theaveragevillageinnorthernChinacontained70wells,suggestingthattherisein tubewellconstructionsincethemid-1990shasbeenevenfasterthanindicatedby officialstatistics.In2004,weestimatethatthereweremorethan7.6milliontubewellsinnorthernChina.Atleastinoursamplevillages,thenumberoftubewells hasgrownbymorethan12%annuallybetween1995and2004.
Toobtainanunderstandingofhowfarmersviewtheirwaterresources,weasked villageleaderstodescribethenatureoftheaquifersthatareundertheirvillages. Becausemostvillageleadershavenotparticipatedinanyhydrogeologicalsurveys oftheirvillages,theyoftenwereunabletoanswerquestionsconcerningtheexistence,size,orothergeologicalpropertiesoftheaquifersundertheirvillages. Instead,villageleadersknowmorepreciselyhowmanyshallowordeepwellsare
intheirvillageandthedepthsofthewells.Althoughthereisnotacompletecorrelationbetweenthedepthofthewellsandthenatureoftheaquifer,inmanycases,the existenceofashallowordeepwellcoincideswiththatofshallowordeeplayersofa village’saquifers.Regardlessoftheirexacthydrogeologicalproperties,accordingto ourdata(andtheperceptionofvillageleaders),“deepwells”arealmostalways wellsthathaveadepthofatleast60m.Ifavillageneedstodrillthroughanaquitard (aclaylayerinmostcases)tosinkawell,thewellisalwaysdefinedasadeepwell. Shallowwells,incontrast,aremostlylessthan60manddonotpenetratean aquitard.
Whetherdeeporshallow,groundwaterresourcesareextensiveacrossregionsof northernChina.Weaskedvillageleadersabouttheexistenceofgroundwaterresourcesinthevillage.Mostvillageleadersrespondedthattherearegroundwaterresources;theshareofvillageshavinggroundwaterresourceswasalmost95%in 2004.However,notallvillageswithaccesstogroundwateruseitforirrigation.In 2004,morethan15%ofirrigatedvillageswithgroundwaterdidnotuseittoirrigate. Accordingtothevillageleaders,therearetwomajorreasonsforthis.Onereasonis theexistenceofcheapandsufficientsurfacewaterresources(51%ofvillages).The otherreasonisinsufficientfundingforthediggingoftubewells(37%ofvillages). Suchfindingssuggestthattherearestillmanyuntappedgroundwaterresourcesin northChina.Withincreasingwaterscarcityandrisingwaterdemands,morevillages havebeguntouselocalgroundwatersources.From1995to2004,theshareofvillagesusinggroundwaterresourcesforthefirsttimehasincreasedbyalmost12%.
RelyingontheobservationsofourNCWRSrespondents,oneofourmostprominentfindingsisthegreatdiversityofaquiferdevelopmentinnorthernChina.Our datashowthatin33%ofoursamplevillages,thegroundwatersupplyfromshallow aquifersissufficienttosupportcurrentlocalwaterdemandforirrigation.Inother villages(42%),perhapsduetoexhaustedorunusableshallowaquifers,farmers extractgroundwateronlyfromdeepaquifers.Althoughwehavenotaskedfarmers whytheyonlyextractgroundwaterfromdeepaquifers,basedonourexperiencein thefield,itshouldbeduetoexhaustedorunusableshallowaquifers.Intheremaining25%ofsamplevillages,bothshallowanddeepaquifersareused.Thegroundwatersupplyfromshallowunconfinedaquifersishighlydependentupon precipitation,whichsuppliesgroundwaterrecharge.Whenrainfallisaboveaverage, asitwasin2004,waterlevelsincreaseinshallowaquifersduetoaboveaverage recharge.Thismaybethereasonthatweobservemorevillagesextractgroundwater fromshallowaquifersin2004thanin1995.Weneedmoreinvestigationtoexplore thereasoninthefuture.
Accordingtoourrespondents,thedepthtowateralsovariedacrossnorthern China.Althoughtheaveragedepthtowaterin2004was26m,itvariedsharply acrossoursamplevillages.Infact,inmostvillagesdepthtowaterwasfairlyshallow. In2004,theaveragedepthtowaterforthevillagesintheshallowestquartilewas only4mandthatforthesecondquartilewasonly9m.Villagesinthethirdquartile werepumpingfromanaveragedepthtowaterofmorethan30m.Inonly4%of groundwatervillageswerevillagerspumpingfrommorethan100m.
theseproblemsappearstobeinanywayassociatedwithruralareas.Accordingto oursurvey,novillageleadereverreportedanylandsubsidenceproblem,nordid anyvillageleaderreportthatthevillage’sgroundwaterwascontaminatedby seawaterintrusion.Finally,thereisno evidencethatvillagesusinggroundwater regardlessofthelevelofthewatertable experiencedafallincultivatedareadue todesertification.
Thislackofimpactintheruralareas,whilegoodforruraldevelopmentinthe short-run,isworrisome.Becauseagricultureisthelargestuserofwaterinallof China,behavioralchangesinthissectorwillsurelybenecessaryinordertocurbnationalwateruse.Butiffarmersarenotlargelyunaffectedbytheiroveruseofwater, theywillhavenoincentivetochange.Policymakerswillhavetofindawaytoalign farmers’incentiveswiththeirowniftheyhopetoseetheadoptionofwater-saving farmingmethods.
Boththeliteratureongroundwaterandoursurveyalsoreportanumberofother problemsthatarenotdirectlyrelatedtogroundwateroverdraft.Forexample,it hasbeenwidelyreportedinthepressandinacademicjournals(eg, Kendyetal., 2003)thatpollutionfrommunicipalsewagehascontaminatedthegroundwaterof manyvillagesinChina.Partoftheproblemiscreatedwhenfarmerspumpfrom effluentcanals,usingsewage-lacedwaterontheirfields.Therechargefromirrigationwithsuchwatercanaffecttheentireaquifer.Evenwhenvillagesdonotusethe waterforirrigationpurposes,rechargefromstreamsandriverbedscancontributeto groundwaterpollution.Accordingtothe MinistryofWaterResourcesandNanjing WaterResourcesInstitute(2004),thegroundwaterresourcesofmorethan60%of the118largestcitiesinChinahavecontaminatedgroundwater.
Drawingonoursurvey(inwhichweaskleadersabouttheirperceptionofpollution),wefindthatthegroundwaterispollutedin5.4%ofsamplevillages.However, unlikevillagesnearcities,whicharemainlyaffectedbymunicipalsewagewaste, ourrespondentsidentifiedindustrialpollutionandrunofffromminingoperations asthemostcommonsourceofpollution.Infact,ofallofthevillagesthatreported contaminatedgroundwater,95%(5.15%ofallvillages)saidthatthemainsource ofpollutionwasfromindustrialandminingwastewater.Only0.25%ofvillages (orlessthan5%ofvillagesthatreportcontamination)saidthattheirgroundwaterwaspollutedbyagriculturalchemicals,andnoneattributedittourban sewage.
Whiletheperceivedextentoftheruralgroundwaterpollutionproblemappears tobelessseriousthaninurbanandsuburbanareas,itisstillserious.Extrapolating ourresultstoallofnorthernChina,wecanestimatethatmorethan20millionrural residentslivingin20,000ruralvillagesareusinggroundwaterthathasbeen contaminatedbyindustrialrunoff.Moreover,unliketheirurbanandsuburban