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INFINITYFISH
INFINITYFISH EconomicsandtheFutureofFishand
Fisheries
USSIF RASHID SUMAILA
InstitutefortheOceansandFisheriesandSchoolofPublicPolicyandGlobalAffairs, UniversityofBritishColumbia,Vancouver,BC,Canada
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Dedication
ForalltheBlack,Brown,andWhitewomenandmen,youthandadultsworking dayandnighttomaketheworldamorejustandsustainableplace
Listoffiguresxi
Listoftablesxv
Prefacexvii
Acknowledgmentsxix
1.Introduction1
Broadeningthescopeofwhatwevalue3
Intergenerationaldiscounting4
Applicationsoftheintergenerationaldiscounting approach4
Tacklingbroaderissuesinsupportof Infinityfish 5 Epilogue5 References5
2.Gettingvaluesandvaluationrightisa mustforachieving InfinityFish 9
Introduction9
Theoryofvaluation9
Thepracticeofvaluation10
Resultsofthesurvey11
Measuringmarketvalues11
Measuringoptionandexistencevalues12
Incorporatingbequestvalue13
Conclusion15
References15
3.Comprehensivevaluationofbenefits fromrestoredecosystemsneededfor InfinityFish 17
Introduction17 Economicvaluation18
Theecosystem economicvaluation approach19
Casestudy:pastandpresentecosystemsoftheStrait ofGeorgia21 Theresults21
Concludingremarks24 References24
4.Makingfuturegenerationscount viadiscountingtoensure InfinityFish: astaticmodel27
Introduction27
Whytheneedformarineecosystemrestoration?28
Catchprofilesatindividualspecieslevels29
FishcatchesintheNorthAtlantic, 1950-9930
Globalfisheriescatchdata,1951-9830
Theconventionalcost-benefitanalysis30
Theneedforanewcost benefitanalysis approach33
TheintergenerationalCBA36
Applicationofapproachtoanecosystemmodelof Iceland37
ModelingtheIcelandicmarineecosystem37
Economicvaluationoftheoutcomesunderthe statusquoandrestorationregimes39 Results40
Catchprofiles40 Netbenefitprofiles41
Impactofchangesindiscountrates42
Netpresentvalueofbenefitsasseenby eachof50overlappingyearclassesof people43
Conclusion43 References44
5.Makingfuturegenerationscount viadiscountingtoensure InfinityFish: adynamicmodel47
Introduction47
Rationaleforthenewapproach49
Derivingtheintergenerationaldiscounting equation50
Comparingintergenerationalandstandard discounting52
Concludingremarks53 References54 vii
6.Makingfuturegenerationscountvia discountingtoensure InfinityFish: anexample57
Introduction57
Methods58
Modelparameterization58
Determiningoptimalharvestpatterns59
Valuationoftheharvestprofile60
Conventionaldiscounting60
Intergenerationaldiscounting60
Calculatingfisheriesprofits61
Selectionofdiscountrate62
Results63
Optimalpolicies63
Economicresults65
Sensitivityanalysis66
Discussion66
References67
7.Anecological-economicmodelfor spatialmanagementinsupportof InfinityFish 69
Introduction69
Methods71
Derivingabioeconomicvulnerability index71
Globalfisheriescatchdata72
Discountratebyfishingcountries73
Estimatingintrinsicpopulation growthrate(r)73
Results75
Discussion79
Conclusion81
References81
8.Theperformanceofdifferentfisheries managementsystemsinrelationto InfinityFish 85
Introduction85
Therationalefordiscounting86
Propertyrights,institutionalhierarchies,and alternativemanagementsystems87
Exogenousdiscountfactors88
Endogenousdiscountfactors91
Discussion95
Conclusion95
References96
9.Goodgovernanceofoceanand fishstocksneededtoensure InfinityFish 99
Introduction99
Globalfisheries:currentstateandsocioeconomic contributions99
Challengestosuccessfulgovernance100
Thecommonpropertyoropen-accessnatureof fisheryresources100
Thechallenge100
Tacklingthechallenge100
Climatechange,oceanwarming,and acidification101
Thechallenge101
Tacklingthechallenge101
Governmentsubsidiestothefishingsector101
Thechallenge101
Tacklingthechallenge102
Technologicalprogressandincreasingtradeinthe faceofineffectivegovernance102
Thechallenge102
Tacklingthechallenge102
Illegal,unreported,unregulated(IUU)fishing103
Thechallenge103
Tacklingthechallenge103
Shortsightednessinvaluation104
Thechallenge104
Tacklingthechallenge105
Ameaningfulroleforaquaculture105
Thechallenge105
Tacklingthechallenge106
Concludingremarks106
References107
10.Addressingthecommonproperty natureoffishstocksinsupportof InfinityFish 111
Introduction111
EcologicalconcernswithITQmanagement112
SocialandequityconcernswithITQ management114
AbalancedapproachtotheuseofITQsand catchsharesinfisheriesmanagement115
Conclusion116
References117
11.Fisheriessubsidiesareanobstacleto achieving InfinityFish 121
Introduction121
Methods122
Subsidyclassification123
Datacollection124
Estimatingmissingsubsidyvalues125
Dataanalysis128
Results128
Globalsubsidiesestimates128
Fisheriessubsidiesbytype130
Fisheriessubsidiesbymajorregions130
Topsubsidizingcountries130
Fisheriessubsidiesbymajorfishing entities132
Discussion134
Concludingremarks136
References137
12.Rebuilddepletedfishstocksto ensure InfinityFish 139
Introduction139
Results140
Gainsfromrebuilding140
Costofreform141
Netgainfromrebuilding142
Discussion143
Materialsandmethods145
Estimatingglobalfleetsize145
Estimatingeffortreductionsrequiredto rebuildglobalfisheries145
Estimatingthepotentialvalueofrebuilt fisheries148
Estimatingthecostofrebuildingglobal fisheries150
Calculatingtheunitcostofreducingfishing effort151
Dataanddatabases152
Sensitivityanalysis155
References156
13.Avoidoilspillstosupport
InfinityFish 159
Introduction159
Materialsandmethods162
Modelingoilspillimpacts163
Commercialfisheries165
Recreationalfisheries166
Mariculture167
Results168
Commercialfisheries168
Recreationalfisheries169
Mariculture170
Discussion170
References171
14.Illegalandillicittradeinfishcatch areincompatiblewith InfinityFish 175
Introduction175
Channelsandscaleofillicittradeinfisheries177
Thescaleofillicittradeinthemarineresources ofAfrica177
Identifykeyproductstradedillicitly178
QuantifythelossestoAfricaduetoillicit trade179
OverviewofAfrica’smarinefishcatchand catchvalues179
Economiclosses180
Sustainabilitylosses181
Assessingtheroleofgovernance,corruption,and enforcementcapacityintheincidenceofillicit tradeinthesector181
Impactofthelossfromillicittrade183
Impactofthe“economiclosses”183
Impactofthe“sustainability”losses184
Policyresponseforcurbingillicittradeinfishand fishproducts185
Currentinitiativestoaddressillicittradeof fish185
Acalltofurtheractiontoprevent,deter,and eliminateillicittradeinAfrica’smarine resources186
CaseStudies187
EliminatingillegalfishinginNamibia’sfishery resource187
IUUfishingandpiracyinSomalia188
RoleofregionalinstitutionssuchastheAfrican DevelopmentBank189
Conclusion189
References190
15.Climatechangeisahugechallengeto InfinityFish 193
Introduction193
Biophysicalimpactsonfisheries194
Changesintheproductivityoffishstocks196
Shiftsinfish-stockdistribution196
Changesinecosystemproductivity197
Projectingfisheriesimpactsintothefuture198
Economicimpactsonfisheries200
Impactonpricesandex-vesselrevenues200
Impactonfishingcosts201
Impactonresourcerentandotherindicators201
Adaptingfisheriesforthefuture203
Conclusion206
References207
16.Overfishing,climatechange,andthe chanceofachieving InfinityFish 213
Introduction213
Appendices231 Index259 x Contents
Abroaddefinitionofoverfishing213
Climatechangeimpactsonfishandoceanlife215
Howendingoverfishingcanincreasefishstock resilienceunderclimatechange216
Endoverfishing,increasefishabundanceof commercialstocks216
Endoverfishing,protecttheintegrityofmarine foodwebs217
Endoverfishing,avoidmarinehabitat degradation217
Endoverfishing,decreaseCO2 emissionsbythe fishingsector217
Endoverfishing,increasefishbiomassandCO2 sequestrationbymarinelife218
Policiesandactionstoendoverfishing219
Concludingremarks221
References221
17.Epilogue—knowingthecostof everythingbutthevalueofnothing225
References229
Listoffigures
Figure2.1Percentageofstudiespublishedinnineleadingenvironmentalandnaturalresource economicsjournalsfrom1994to2003,whichmentionedmarketandnonmarketvalues, respectively.
Figure2.2Percentageofstudiespublishedinnineleadingenvironmentalandnaturalresourcejournals inthefirstandsecond5-yearperiodswithinthelastdecadethatmentionednonmarket values.
Figure2.3Sumofnormalizedmarket,optionandexistencevalues(ofcommercialspeciesintheseaas afunctionofmarketvalue).
Figure4.1Profileofcatchesof(A)Namibianpilchardand(B)NortherncodoffNewfoundland.29
Figure4.2Biomassdistributionsforhigh-trophiclevelfishesintheNorthAtlanticin(A)1900and (B)1999.
Figure4.3AsteadyerosionofcoastalandoceanicfisheriesworldwideasrepresentedinFAO’sglobal fisheriescatchdataset(1951to1998).
Figure4.4Currentvalue(fullline)andpresentvalueofaconstantunitflowofbenefits.33
Figure4.5Profileofcatchesunderthestatusquoandrestorationmanagementoptions.40
Figure4.6Netdiscountedbenefitsobtainedunderthestatusquoandrestorationmanagementoptions usingtheconventionalcost benefitanalysismodel(CM). 41
Figure4.7Netdiscountedbenefitsobtainedunderthestatusquoandrestorationmanagementoptions usingtheintergenerationalcost benefitanalysismodel(IGM). 41
Figure4.8Totalnetpresentvalueofbenefitsover100yearsusingtheconventionalcost benefit analysismodel(CM)andtheintergenerationalmodel(IGM).
Figure4.9Sensitivityanalysisontheeffectofdiscountratesontheperformanceofthestatusquoand restorationmanagementoptions. 42
Figure4.10Netdiscountedbenefitsasseenbyeachofyearclassofpeople.43
Figure5.1Presentvalueofaconstantannualflowof$1overaperiodof100yearsforthedifferent approachedtodiscounting. 52
Figure6.1Stabilityanalysisofdynamicecosystemmodel,showingmeanvarianceofbiomasschange perspeciesgroupovera16-yearsimulation.Thereisanonlinearincreaseinthedirectional responsivenessofbiomasschangewithincreasingpredator preyvulnerabilities(Ecosim’s primaryuser-controlledvariable).Blackbarsshowsimulationsoptimizedfor intergenerationalbenefit(δ = δfg);whitebarsshowconventionaldiscountingoptima(@=10%). Aglobalvulnerabilitysettingof0.3forallspeciesgroupsshouldprovideastabledynamic response,thoughperhapsconservativeinmagnitude;modeldynamicsbecomeless stablewhenvulnerabilitiesexceed0.5.
Figure6.2RealpriceofcodbasedonentireharvestfromAtlanticCanada.Trendline(dotted)shows linearpriceprojectionusedintheanalysisbasedondatafrom1972to1992.Theprice increaseafter1992mayhavebeeninfluencedbythecodcollapse,whereasoptimalsolutions wouldhaveavertedthecollapse.
Figure6.3Codbiomassprofilesfromvirtualpopulationanalysistimeseries(solidline), intergenerationaloptimum(δ = δfg;opencircles),andconventionaloptimum(δ =10%;closed circles).Differencebetweenendbiomasses:(A)representsdepletionthatmaybeblamedon theapplicationofconventionaldiscountingand(B)representsdepletionthatmaybeblamed onenvironmentfactorsorineffectivemanagement.Errorbarsshow 6 1SDaroundthe meanfromaMonteCarloprocedurevaryingbasicEcopathparameters(biomass,production andconsumption)forallspeciesgroups(n =20;CV=0.2).
61
Figure6.4Optimalend-statebiomassesafter16yearsofharvestundervariousdiscountingmethods. Underharvestprofilesoptimizedfornetpresentvalue,theconventionaldiscounting method(conv.)leavesasmallstandingbiomassat @ =10%(right).Intergenerationaloptima (@ . @fg, @ = @fg,and @ , @fg)leavelargerstandingbiomasses,especiallyatlow intergenerationaldiscountrates(left)(@fg =5%,10%,and15%,respectively).Real-world biomassin2001is0.116t/km2 (notshown). 64
Figure6.5Optimalend-statecatchesafter16yearsofharvestundervariousdiscountingmethods. Underharvestprofilesoptimizedfornetpresentvalue,theconventionaldiscounting method(conv.)depletesthesystemearly,leavingonlysmallcatchesbyend-time(right), whileintergenerationaloptima(@ . @fg, @ = @fg,and @ , @fg)maintainlargerharveststo simulation’send(@fg =5%,10%,and15%,respectively).Real-worldcatchin2001is 0.013t/km2 (notshown).
Figure6.6Annualnetpresentvalueof40-yearharvestprofilebasedonreal-worlddataset(blackbars) andoptimumsolutions(whitebars)underfourdiscountingmethods.Under intergenerationaldiscounting,theconservativeoptimalsolutionsoutperformthedepletory real-worldharvestprofile.However,underconventionalvaluation,earlybenefitsmakethe real-worldpillagemorevaluablethananoptimal(long-term)solution.
Figure6.7Generationalshareofcatchafter40yearsforthreeharvestprofiles.Blackbarsshowcatch takenbyfirstgeneration;whitebarsshowcatchtakenbysecondgeneration(generation time=20years).Theharvestprofileoptimizedunderintergenerationaldiscounting (IG; @ = @fg; @fg =10%)leavesalmostanevensplittoeachgeneration,whiletheconventional discountingoptimum(conv.; @ =10%)andthereal-worldharvestprofile(actual)grantmost catchtothefirstgeneration.Actualharvestprofileincludesprojectedcatchto2025at currentlevels.
Figure6.8Sensitivityanalysisshowingtheeffectofdiscountrateontheoptimalend-statebiomassfor conventional(closedcircles)andintergenerational(@ = @fg;opencircles)discounting procedures.Largediscountratesleavelessstandingbiomassintheecosystem,butthe intergenerationalsolutionmaintainsthestockathigherlevelsthantheconventional solution.Theconventionalsolutionadvocatesstockcollapseatdiscountratesgreaterthan @ 15%.
Figure7.1Schematicsummarizingthealgorithmdevelopedtocalculatethebioeconomicvulnerability indexineach0.5 latitude 3 0.5 longitudecelloftheworldocean.Thicknessofarrows representstheweightofafishtaxon(1,2,3,etc.)caughtbyacountry(A,B,Cetc.)withthe respectivediscountrate δ (δA, δB, δC,etc.)while r (r1, r2, r3,etc.)istheestimatedintrinsic rateofpopulationincreaseofafishpopulation.
Figure7.2Bioeconomicvulnerabilityindex(BVI)ofallexploitedfishescalculatedbasedon(A) country-leveland(B)privatediscountrates.
64
65
65
66
75
76
Figure7.3Bioeconomicvulnerabilityindex(BVI)forpelagic(A,B)anddemersal(C,D)fishes calculatedbasedon(A,C)country-leveland(B,D)privatediscountrates.
Figure7.4Parametersthatwereusedtocalculatethebioeconomicvulnerabilityindex:(A)average intrinsicgrowthrateoftheexploitedstocks,(B)country-leveldiscountrate,and(C)private discountratesofthefishingcountriesineach0.5 3 0.5 cell.
Figure9.1Amapofglobalillegalfishingincidence,1986to2003.104
Figure10.1End-statecodbiomass(year2000)resultingfromoptimalcatchstrategies,maximizingthe netpresentvalueatvariousdiscountrates.ModelingwasperformedusingtheEcopath softwaresuite(http://www.ecopath.org).AMonteCarloprocedurewasusedtovarybasic Ecopathparameters(biomass,production,andconsumption)forallspeciesgroups(n =20, coefficientofvariation(CV)=0.2).Errorbarsindicate 6 1standarddeviationaroundthe mean.Thebrokenlineshowsthereal-worldcodbiomassin2000,asestimatedbyvirtual populationanalysis.
Figure10.2Atlanticcodbiomassprofilecalculatedfromavirtualpopulationanalysis(solidline)and optimalbiomassprofilescalculatedbymaximizingnetpresentvaluesatdiscountratesof 0%(solidcircles)and20%(opencircles).ModelingwasperformedusingtheEcopath softwaresuite(http://www.ecopath.org).AMonteCarloprocedurewasusedtovarybasic Ecopathparameters(biomass,production,andconsumption)forallspeciesgroups(n =20, coefficientofvariation(CV)=0.2).Errorbarsindicate 6 1standarddeviationaroundthe mean.
Figure11.1Globalfisheriessubsidyamountsbycategoryandgroupedby(A)lowandhighHuman DevelopmentIndex(HDI)countrygroupsand(B)developedanddeveloping,for2018 (constantUSD).
Figure11.2Compositionof2018fisheriessubsidiesamountbytypeandgroupedby(A)Human DevelopmentIndex(HDI0lowandHDIhigh)and(B)developedanddevelopingcountry groups,for2018(constantUSD).
Figure11.3Subsidyamountsbymajorregionfor2018(constantUSD),showingChinaseparately. SCAC=South,CentralAmericaandCaribbean.
Figure11.4Subsidyamountsbymajorfishingcountriesandpoliticalentitiesin2018(constantUSD).134
Figure11.5Comparisonoffisherysubsidyamountsbyregionbetween2009and2018.Alldataare presentedin2018constantUSD,previoussubsidydataadjustedusingConsumerPrice Index(CPI). SCAC =South,CentralAmericaandCaribbean.
Figure12.1Summaryofresourcerent(adjustedforsubsidies)fromcurrentfisheries.Weseethatseveral countriesareinredoncethefullcostoffishing,includingharmfulsubsidiesaretakeninto account.
Figure12.2Summaryofresourcerent(adjustedforsubsidies)fromrebuiltfisheries(rentinallmaritime countriesincreaseafterrebuilding).
142
Figure12.3Transitiontimepathofkeyrebuildingglobalfisheriesvariables.143
Figure12.4Histogramsofpretaxprofitshareoftotalsalesforasampleof1000globalfishing companies.
144
Figure12.5TheSchaeffersurplus-productionmodel.146
Figure12.6Trade-offsbetweenreductionsincostoffishingeffortandtotalfishingeffort(intermsof numberoffishers)reducedastheweightofeffortcutsonlarge-scalefishingvaries.
Figure12.7LostcatchpotentialduetooverfishingforthesixFAOregionsoftheworld(top)and worldwide(bottom).
Figure12.8Correlationbetweenreportedsubsidiesandlandedvalue.154
Figure13.1Spatialdistributionoftheannualaveragelandedvalueofthetotalcommercialfisheries catchintheUSExclusiveEconomicZoneintheGulfofMexico(averagedforthe2000 2005 period).Theareaclosedtocommercialfishing(asofJuly22,2010)includesbothfederal watersandportionsofwesternFlorida,Alabama,Mississippi,andLouisianastatewaters.
Figure14.1PercentageofexploitedstocksinthefivestatuscategorieswithintheExclusiveEconomic ZonesofAfricancountries.
Figure15.1Schematicdiagramindicatingthebiophysicalandsocioeconomicimpactsofclimatechange atdifferentlevelsoforganizations,fromindividualorganismstothesociety.
Figure15.2Seasurfacetemperaturechanges,globalfishcatch,andthenumberofpublicationsonthe relationshipbetweenclimatechangeandfisheries.(A)Seasurfacetemperature(SST) changesbetweenthe1960s(average1950 69)and2000s(average1988 2007).Datataken fromRayneretal.(2003).(B)Estimatedglobalcatches(average2000 07).Datatakenfrom SeaAroundUsProject.(C)Numberofpublicationsreportingobservedbiologicaland ecologicalchangesthatareconsideredtoberelatedtoclimatechangeandmayhavedirect implicationsforfisheries(bars)andthechangeinseasurfacetemperature(circles),between 1982and2006bygeographicregions.Changesthatarenotdirectlyrelatedtofisheries(e.g., changesinzooplanktondistribution)arenotincluded.
Figure15.3Summaryoftheapproachandkeyresultsofamodelingstudythatassessestheimpactsof climatechangeonpotentialcatchesfromglobalfisheries.(A)First,byapplyingaspatial dynamicmodel(dynamicbioclimateenvelopemodel)to1066speciesofexploitedfishesand invertebrates,futuredistributionsofspeciesunderclimatechangeareprojected.Second,by combiningtheseprojectionswithprojectedprimaryproductivitythroughanempirical modelandfisherieseconomicdata,changesinfuturemaximumpotentialcatchandtheir economicimplicationsareprojected.(B)Projectedchangesinmaximumpotentialcatch undertheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange’sA1Bscenario.
Figure16.1Overfishingtruncatesthefoodwebandsimulatesthesameeffectsof“fishingdownfood webs.”
Figure16.2Climatechangeimpactsonmarineecosystemsandgoodsandservicesprovidedtohuman society.
Figure16.3Endingoverfishingrequirespositivefeedbackbetweenpeopleandtheocean.218
Figure16.4Subsidiesthatstimulateovercapacityinlarge-scaleindustrialfisheriescanleadto overfishing.
Listoftables
Table3.1Reportsthebiomassandharvestfromthepastandpresentecosystems.22
Table3.2Summaryresults:annualprofitsinthousandC$/km2 oftheecosystem.23
Table3.3RestorationversusstatusquoannualprofitinthousandC$/km2 oftheecosystem:20-year horizon;discountrate=4.23%;0.1degradation/yearinstatusquo. 23
Table4.1PartitioningoftheIcelandicmarineecosystemmodelinto25functionalgroups,their respectiveestimatedpricesfortheanalyseswithsourcesindicated,andtypesoffleet targetingtherespectivefunctionalgroups.
Table6.1Effectofdiscountrateoneducationalattainment.62
Table11.1Meansubsidyintensityestimatesusedtoinfersubsidiseforcountrieswithmissingdata.126
Table11.2Thehighestsubsidizingcountrieswithinthe“high”HumanDevelopmentIndexgroup,in 2018bycategory(USDmillions).
Table11.3Thehighestsubsidizingcountrieswiththe“low”HumanDevelopmentIndexgroup,in2018 bycategory(USDmillions).
Table12.1Keyeconomicfiguresofglobalfisheries.140
Table12.2Wages,normalprofit,andresourcerentforcurrentfisheriesbyFAOregion.150
Table12.3Wages,normalprofit,resourcerent,andincreaseinrentfromrebuiltfisheries.151
Table12.4Annualglobalfisheriessubsidiesbycategory.151
Table12.5Globalcost(mean 6 95%CI)offishing(Year2005US$pertofcatch),separatedintovariable andfixedcostcomponent.
154
Table12.6Sensitivityofpresentvalueofrebuildingcoststoparameterassumptions.155
Table12.7Sensitivityofpresentvaluepotentialgaininresourcerentfromrebuildingtoparameter assumptions. 155
Table13.1Assumedimpactgradient(%)forspeciesgroup—statecombinationsintheareaopento fishing(AreaB)intheGulfofMexico.
Table13.2EstimatedannualcatchandcatchvaluesbeforetheGulfofMexicooilspillintheareas closedandopentofishingasofJuly22,2010.
Table13.3Assumedinitialunmarketabilityandmarketrecoverytimeforkeymarinetaxonomicgroups targetedbycommercialfisheriesintheGulfofMexico.
165
165
166
Table13.4PreoilspillmaricultureproductionintheGulfofMexico.168
Table13.5Predictedpresentvaluelossesineconomicindicatorsforcommercialfisheriesoverthenext7 yearsintheUSGulfofMexicoareaduetothe DeepwaterHorizon OilSpill.
169
Table13.6PredictedpresentvaluelossineconomicindicatorsfortheUSGulfstates’recreational fisheries.
169
Table13.7PredictedpresentvaluelossesineconomicindicatorsforUSGulfmariculture.170
Table13.8Predicted(midpoint)presentvaluelossesineconomicindicatorsforallaffectedUSGulf statesforcommercialandrecreationalfisheriesandmariculturesectorscombined.
170
Table14.1MajorfishspeciesthatentertheillicittradeinmarineresourcesofAfrica.178
Table14.2ReportedandunreportedcatchandvaluefromAfricanwatersbyfishingsector.179
Table14.3EconomiclossestoAfricafromillicittradeinmarineresources.180
Table14.4ImpactsofillicittradeinAfrica’smarineresourcesontheformaleconomy.184
Table15.1Summaryofpotentialimpactsofclimatechangeontheeconomicsoffisheriesbasedon informationfrompublishedliterature.
204
Preface
Ipresentinthisbookideas,models,and analysesonthesubjectofvaluesandvaluationoffisheryresourcesusingaseriesof mypublishedarticles.Myultimategoalis toreachamuchbroaderaudiencethantypicalreadersofscholarlyarticlesbecauseI believethistopicistooimportanttobeleft onthepagesofjournalsalone.Idescribe thewaywecurrentlyvalueourmarinelivingresourcesandhowthisisturningthem from“renewable”to“nonrenewable” resources,makingcommercialindustrial fishingmorelikeextractive“miningoperations.”Theconsequencesofthisisthe underminingofglobalfishstocks,hamperingtheabilityofnotonlyfuturegenerationsbutalsocurrentgenerationstomeet theirfishprotein,micronutrient,andlivelihoodneeds.
Themaingoalofthisbookistopresent newintuitiveandinterdisciplinaryeconomicapproachesandconceptsandapply themtooceanconservationinwaysthat areunderstandableandreadabletononspecialist.Thisbookis,therefore,botha narrativeaboutconservationandpolicy, andabouthoweconomicscanbedeployed intheserviceofachievingsocietalgoals relatingtofisheryresources.Inother words,Ipresentideasthatcanmakea (small)positivecontributiontohumanity’s
questtoachievewhatR.Buckminster Fullercapturedsoeloquentlyinthefollowing:“Withourmindsalonewecandiscoverthoseprinciplesweneedtoemploy toconvertallhumanitytosuccessinanew, harmoniousrelationshipwiththe universe.”
Theprimaryaudiencesforthisbookare scholarsandstudentsofenvironmental andnaturalresourceeconomics.Itcanbe usedascoursematerialforseniorundergraduatesandgraduatestudentsofoceans, andfisherieseconomicsandmanagement andserveasaguidingapproachforfisheriesandoceanpolicymakersandmanagers worldwide.Thereissomethinginthebook fortheinterestedpublic,oceanenthusiasts, NGOs,andcivilsocietyingeneral.Funders ofoceanconservationandfisheriessustainabilitywouldalsofindthebookusefulasit highlightsthekindofinterdisciplinaryand integratedeconomicsneededtohelp ensureweachievelong-termconservation ofourvitaloceanresources,andthereby achieve Infinityfish
UssifRashidSumaila InstitutefortheOceansandFisheriesand SchoolofPublicPolicyandGlobalAffairs, UniversityofBritishColumbia,Vancouver, BC,Canada
Acknowledgments
ThesedaysIcallmyselfaninterdisciplinaryoceanandfisherieseconomist.Thisis becauseIseethevalueofworkingwithcolleaguesfromdifferentdisciplines:ecologists, mathematicians,othersocialscientists, mediascholars,lawyers,etc.Ialsoseethe valueofworkingwithnonacademics:indigenousandcoastalcommunities,policymakers,civilsocietyadvocates,fishing enterprises,environmentalNGOs,journalists,etc.Moreover,Idomyworkatmultiple scales:local,regional,national,andglobal.It isabroadperspectiveofeconomicsasit relatestotheconservationandsustainable useoftheoceanandthelifeitholdsthat allowedmetodeveloptheideasinthis book.I,therefore,wanttoexpressmyprofoundgratitudetothenumerousindividuals,institutions,privateenterprises, fundingbodies(toomanytomentionallbut afewkeyonesaretheSocialSciencesand HumanitiesResearchCouncilofCanada, NaturalSciencesResearchCouncilof Canada,thePewCharitableTrusts,Oceana, FirstNationsFisheriesCouncilofBritish Columbia,theUnitedNations,Sablefish AssociationofBritishColumbia,andthe HighLevelPanelforaSustainableOcean Economy)thatIhaveinteractedwithin everycontinentoftheworldexcept Antarctica.Withoutyourengagementand collaboration,thisbookwouldnothave beenpossible.
Iwouldliketothankthecoauthorsof thepapersthatformthebasisofthisbook, forhelpingmetocrystallizetheideaspresented:TonyPitcher,NigelHaganand RussJones(Chapter3, Comprehensive
valuationofbenefitsfromrestoredecosystems neededforInfinityFish);CarlWalters (Chapter5, Makingfuturegenerationscount viadiscountingtoensureInfinityFish:A dynamicmodel);CameroonAinsworth (Chapter6, Makingfuturegenerationscount viadiscountingtoensureInfinityFish:An example);WilliamCheung(Chapter7, An ecological-economicmodelforspatialmanagementinsupportofInfinityFish);Marcos Domı´nguez-Torreiro(Chapter8, TheperformanceofdifferentfisheriesmanagementsystemsinrelationtoInfinityFish);Naazia Ebrahim,AnnaSchuhbauer,Daniel Skerritt,YangLi,HongSikKim,Tabitha GraceMallory,VickyWLLam,Daniel Pauly(Chapter11, Fisheriessubsidiesarean obstacletoachievingInfinityFish);William Cheung,AndrewDyck,KamalGueye,Ling Huang,VickyLam,DanielPauly,Thara Srinivasan,WilfSwartz,ReginaldWatson, DirkZeller(Chapter12, Rebuilddepletedfish stockstoensureInfinityFish);Andre ´ sM. Cisneros-Montemayor,AndrewDyck,Ling Huang,WilliamCheung,JenniferJacquet, KristinKleisner,VickyLam,Ashley McCrea-Strub,WilfSwartz,RegWatson, DirkZeller,DanielPauly(Chapter13, AvoidoilspillstosupportInfinityFish); WilliamW.L.Cheung,VickyW.Y.Lam, DanielPaulySamuelHerrick(Chapter15, ClimatechangeisahugechallengetoInfinity Fish);andTravisTai(Chapter16, Overfishing,climatechange,andthechanceof achievingInfinityFish).Interactingand workingwithyouhavemadethecontent ofthisbookstrongerandricher—Iamvery gratefulforyourcollaborations.
Next,Iwouldliketothankmystudents, postdocs,researchassociates,andmembers oftheFisheriesEconomicsResearchUnit (FERU),the OceanCanada Partnership,Sea AroundUs,ChangingOceansResearch Units,inparticular,andmembersofthe InstitutefortheOceansandFisheriesand theSchoolofPublicPolicyandGlobal Affairs,ingeneral.Iwouldalsoliketo thankmyclosecollaboratorsatUBC,especiallyDanielPaulyandWilliamCheung, forcontributinginvariouswaysto thedevelopmentoftheideaspresentedin thisbook.IvarEkelandofUBCMath Departmentshowedalotofinterestinthe intergenerationaldiscountingideaspresentedinthisbook,whichresultedina numberofco-authoredpapers.Inparticular,ImustmentionAllisonCutting,thelast graduateresearchassistanttoworkonthe bookwithme,forherinterestinthesubject matterofthebookandherexcellentsupportinhelpingmenavigatebothbigand smallissuesrelatedtothepracticalpublicationofthebook.Anotherlabmemberthat needsspecialmentionisDuncanBurnside, the OceanCanada/FERUTechManager, forhissupportandcreativityindeveloping abeautifulwebsiteforthebook(https:// oceancan.mywhc.ca/infinityfish/).
MentionisduetoRosamondNaylorand MatthewRandforinvitingmetoStanford
andgettingmetogiveatalkattheWhite House,respectively,ontheintergenerationaldiscountingapproach.Itwasduring mytalkatStanfordthattheideatoconduct thestudyreportedinChapter6, Making futuregenerationscountviadiscountingto ensureInfinityFish:Anexample:wasplanted inmymindbytheNobelPrize-winning economist,KennethArrow.Professor ArrowsuggestedthatIconductastudy thataddressesthequestion“Whatisto blamemoreforthecollapseofafishstock: mismanagementortheuseofconventional discounting?”,andthisisthequestion addressedinChapter6.Ialsowanttotake thisopportunitytothankthepublishersof theoriginalarticlesthatgrantedmecopyrightssoIcouldrepublishfiguresthatfirst appearedintheirjournals.
Finally,Iwouldliketothankmyfamily, Mariam,Aliyu,andHaskefortheirmoral support.Theyareusuallythefirstpeople Igettobounceideaswith.
UssifRashidSumaila InstitutefortheOceansandFisheriesand SchoolofPublicPolicyandGlobalAffairs, UniversityofBritishColumbia, Vancouver,BC,Canada
1 Introduction
Whenwelookaroundus,weseethedeclineofrenewablenaturalresources,suchas fishstocksandforests;thepollutionoftheenvironment,forexample,marineplasticpollution;andthewarming,acidification,anddeoxygenationoftheocean,andwewonder why?Well,inthisbook,Iarguethatthesedepletionsanddestructionsofnaturearepartly duetothewaywevaluetheenvironment(includingouroceanandthemarinelifeit holds)andhowwevalueordonotvaluealltheamazingservicesitprovidesus.Thelack ofpropervaluationofthegoodsandservicesderivedfromtheenvironmentisafundamentalreasonwhywehavesofarfailedtotakegoodcareoftheocean(andtheenvironmentatlarge).Itisessentialthatwegetthesevaluationsright,sothattheoceancan,in turn,continuetotakecareofbothcurrentandfuturegenerations.BelowIpresentastory thatmayhelpexplainwhatImean.
In2012,IwasinvitedtogiveatalkonhowtosustainAfrica’smarinefisheriesin NamibiainthepresenceofthreeAfricanMinistersofFisheries(ofNamibia,SierraLeone, andtheSeychelles)andotherhigh-levelAfricanfisheriespolicymakers,managers,and membersofthefisheriesanddiamond-miningsectorsofthecountry.AkeypointImade duringmytalkwasthat,“Fishismorevaluablethandiamond.”Thisassertionshocked boththeadvocatesoffisheriesandthoseofthediamond-miningsector—theformerpleasantlyshockedwhilethelatterwasdismayedbecauseIwasturningthebeliefofbothsectors,thatdiamondismorevaluablethanfish,onitshead.
Iprovidedthefollowingreasonstosupportmyassertion.First,wildfishstocksare renewableresources;thatis,iftheyareusedwisely,theywillcontinuetoprovidefood andlivelihoodstotensofmillionsofpeopleworldwide,forever.Mathematically,anything thatgivesapositivenetbenefitforever,nomatterhowsmall,thenetbenefitsovertime willsumtoinfinity.Thisthenwastheinspirationforthetitleofthisbook Infinityfish.On theotherhand,diamondisnonrenewable;itistherefore“notforever”,aspopularparlancewouldhaveusbelieve:onceyoudepleteadiamonddeposit,itisgoneforever.One mightarguethatwecaninvesttheproceedsfromminingdiamondstoobtainastreamof netbenefitsforever.Well,experienceshowsthatsocietiesarenotthatgoodinusingwindfallsfromnaturalresources.Historyisrepletewithexamplesofcountrieswastingtheir windfalls—theso-called“DutchDisease,”atermcoinedtocapturetheadverseeffectson theDutcheconomyafterthediscoveryofhugenaturalgasdepositsinthe1960s(Corden, 1984).
https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-823816-5.00019-9
Thesecondjustificationformyassertionisthatwhilefishandfisheriesdirectly impactpeoplebyfeedingandnourishingmillions(Hicksetal.,2019;Srinivasan, Cheung,Watson,&Sumaila,2010)andprovidinglivelihoodstomoremillions( Sumaila, 2019;Teh&Sumaila,2013),thediamondsectorisaveryelitisteconomicsectorthat directlyemploysandsupportsthelivelihoodsofmuchfewerpeoplearoundtheworld. Takeanysampleofpeopleinanycountrythatisendowedwithbothfishanddiamond, andaskhowmanyofthemhaveeatenfishinthelastmonthversushowmanyofthem haveevertouched,seen,orbenefiteddirectlyfromdiamond;Ibetyou,therewouldbe manymorepeoplewhohavedonetheformerthanthosewhocananswerintheaffirmativetothelatter.
Mypointofdepartureinthisbookisthattoensurenature’sgifttohumanityisfully realized,weneedtoensure Infinityfish becomesareality,andtodoso,weneedtoreassesshowindividualsandsociety(we)valuefishstocksandtheecosystemthatholds them.Weneedtoreevaluatehowwevaluethepresentversusthefutureandhowwe valuemarketandnonmarketvalues.Akeychallengetoeconomicsishowtovaluebenefitsfrommarineecosystemsinacomprehensivemannerandinawaythatcapturestheir long-termvalue.
Inthiscontribution,Iexploretheimporta ntissueofvaluesandvaluationanddemonstratethatthewaywecurrentlyvalueourmarinelivingresourceshelpstodeplete them.Iemphasizetheeconomicapproachofdiscountinginfisheries,thatis,themechanismbywhichthepresentvalueofaflowofbenefitstobereceivedinthefutureis determinedtoday.Giventhetimevalueofmo ney,adollarisworthmoretodaythanit wouldbeworthtomorrow( Robinson,2020 ).Ascommercialfishersandfisheriesmanagersoftenviewfishasmoney,discountin gplaysanimportantroleintheireconomic choicesastowhenandhowmuchtofish( Akpalu,2008;Tehetal.,2015 ).Meanwhile, discountinghasbeenidentifiedbymany environmentaleconomistsasapossible sourceofproblemwhendealingwithproject swithlong-termbenefitsandshort-term costs,( Heal,1998;Sternetal.,2006 )suchasfisheries( Clark,1973;Ekeland,Karp,& Sumaila,2015 )andclimatechange( Cheung,Watson,&Pauly,2013;Sumaila,Cheung, Lam,Pauly,&Herrick,2011 ).Inthecaseoffisheries,theconsequencesofdiscounting underminetheconservationoffishstocks,hamperingtheabilityofnotonlyfuture generationsbutalsothecurrentgenerationtomeettheirfishproteinneeds.Iprovide suggestionsonhowtovaluetheseresourcesinordertoensurethattheyareconserved andusedsustainablysoourgrandchildrencanalsohavetheopportunitytodothe samefortheirowngrandchildren thatis,achieving InfinityFish !
Ashumans,wetendtoviewanythingclosetous,bothtemporarilyandspatially,as “largeandweighty”whileweputlittleornoweighttoanythingfurtherawayfromus. Thistendency,whichispartlycapturedbytheeconomicconceptofdiscounting(Pigou, 1920;Ramsey,1928;Sumaila,2004),hasbeenabigstumblingblocktoourabilitytolivein harmonywithnature(Robinson,2020;Sumaila&Walters,2005).Thispartlyexplainswhy wekeepoverexploitingbiodiversity(Brondizio,Settele,Dı´az,&Ngo,2019;Isabella, Therese,&Annika,2020;Ruckelshausetal.,2020)and,inparticular,depletingmarinefish stocks(Jacksonetal.,2001;Paulyetal.,2002).Italsopartlyexplainswhywekeep pollutingtheenvironment,forexample,withCO2 (Isabellaetal.,2020)andplastic (Abbott&Sumaila,2019;Lauetal.,2020)becausewewanttofront-loadourbenefits
(Sumaila,2004).Itisalsopartlythereasonweareunabletostopdepletingbothmarine andterrestrialbiodiversity(Paulyetal.,2002;Ruckelshausetal.,2020)andunabletotake actiontomitigateclimatechange(Po ¨ rtner,2019)-becausewewanttoback-loadourcosts (Sumaila,2004)!Notsurprisingly,valuationofenvironmentalandnaturalresourcesisa topicalissuethatcontinuestodrawtheattentionofresearchersinthisarea.Itgoeswithoutsayingthatpropervaluationofthegoodsandservicesderivedfrommarineecosystems,inparticular,andtheenvironment,ingeneral,iscrucialinhelpingsocietymake rationaldecisionsonhowtotrade-offdifferentcompetingusesfortheseresources (Turkelboometal.,2018;CheungandSumaila,2008).
Discountingplaysacriticalroleinfisheriesmanagement,asitdeterminesfisherbehavior. Ifmanagersanddecisionmakerscanunderstandfishers’rateofdiscounting(Teh,Teh,& Sumaila,2014),theycanmakemoreinformedmanagementdecisionstosupportsustainabilityandtheconservationoffishstocks(Sumaila&Domı´nguez-Torreiro,2010).Thediscountingapproachpresentedinthisbookiseasilydigestibleandinlinewithsimplecommon sense;theproposedapproachesarenovelanddifferentiatethemselvesfromthosepresented inexistingbooks,suchas PannellandSchilizzi(2006),which“tacklesthediscountingissue fromanumberofangles,rangingfromrelativelyshort-termprivatefinancialdecisions,to verylong-termpublicissuesspanninggenerations”; Gollier(2012),whichoutlinesthebasic theoryofthediscountrateandthevariousargumentsthatfavorusingasmallerdiscount rateformoredistant“cashflows”;and Kula(1997),whocontendsthatconventionaltimedependenttheoriesinwelfareeconomicsarebasedontheunwarrantedassumptionthat peopleliveforever,anassumptionthatunderpinsthecriteriaformanydecision-making activitiesandonethatleadspublicsectorpolicymakerstodiscriminateagainstfuturegenerations.Thesebooks(includingthisone)identifytheproblemassociatedwithdiscounting justas Pigou(1920) and Ramsey(1928) didmuchearlier.Thecontributionofthecurrent bookisthatitproposesadifferent“outoftheconventionaleconomicsbox”solutiontothe problemidentified.
Thechaptersinthebookareorganizedaroundfourbroadissues:(i)broadeningthe scopeofwhatwevaluewithrespecttofishandthemarineecosystem;(ii)explicitlytaking theinterestoffuturegenerationsintoaccountbyproposing“intergenerationaldiscounting”; (iii)presentingsomeapplicationsofdiscountingtorealworldmanagementchallenges;and (iv)tacklingbroaderissuesinsupportof Infinityfish.
Broadeningthescopeofwhatwevalue
Thischaptergivesanintroductiontotherelevanceofthecontentandinformationtofollow. InChapter2, Gettingvaluesandvaluationrightis amustforachievingInfinityfish,Istressthecrucialityofpropervaluesifwearetoprotectourmarineecosystemsandsafeguardfishasarenewableresourceintothedistantfuture.Iexploretheliteraturetodeterminewhetherthetheory andpracticeofvaluationarerobustenoughtoensure Infinityfish (Sumaila,2008).ThisisfollowedbyChapter3, Comprehensivevaluationofbenefitsfrom restoredecosystemsneededforInfinity fish,withastudythatdemonstrateshowtocomprehensivelyvaluethebenefitsfromrestored marineecosystems(Sumaila,Pitcher,Haggan,&Jones,2001).
Intergenerationaldiscounting
Chapter4, MakingfuturegenerationscountviadiscountingtoensureInfinityFish:Astatic model,andChapter5, MakingfuturegenerationscountviadiscountingtoensureInfinityfish: Adynamicmodel,aretheheartofthebookwhereIintroducethereadertoconceptssuch asintergenerationaldiscounting,discountingclocks,front-loadingofbenefits,andbackloadingofcosts.AstaticversionofwhatIdenoteas intergenerationaldiscounting is presentedinChapter4,whileitsdynamicversioniscoveredinChapter5.Themethod stimulatedacommentfrom PragerandShertzer(2006;seeappendix5B),whichwe respondedtoin SumailaandWalters(2007).Readersareencouragedtoreadthesetwo piecessincetheyprovidefurtherexplanationsoftheapproach.Ournotionofintergenerationaldiscountingexplicitlycapturesthefisheriesbenefitstofuturegenerationsbymaking surethecurrentgenerationdoesnotdiscountfisheriesbenefitsasiftheyweretheirsalone. Ourapproachtriestoensurethatthecurrentgenerationdoesnotdepletethefishandthus doesnotdeprivefuturegenerationsfromhavingfish.Atthecoreofit,ourapproachsays, “eatyourfishbutnotthoseofyourgrandchildren.”Intergenerationaldiscountingessentiallyarguesfortheassignmentofdefactopropertyandaccessrightstofish,tofuture generations.Thetricktoachievingthisgoalistousedifferentdiscountingclocksforeach generation,inwhichthediscountingofnetbenefitstofuturegenerationsstartsonlywhen theyarebornandnotbefore.Agreatsustainabilityandconservationfeatureofthis approachisthatitreducesthehumantendencytowanttofront-loadbenefitswhilebackloadingcosts.Finally,itisworthnotingthatourintergenerationaldiscountingapproach drawsinspirationfromthe7thGenerationPrincipleofIndigenousPeoplesofNorth America,wheretheobjectiveistomanagenaturalresourceswithdueconsiderationgiven totheneedsofthe7thGeneration.
Applicationsoftheintergenerationaldiscountingapproach
Chapter6, MakingfuturegenerationscountviadiscountingtoensureInfinityfish:Anexample ,isanapplicationofintergenerationaldisc ountingtothecollapseofcodstocksoff Newfoundland( Ainsworth&Sumaila,2005).IpresentinChapter7, AnecologicaleconomicmodelforspatialmanagementinsupportofInfinityfish ,anecological economic modeltoillustratehowalife-historycharacteristicsofafishspecies(i.e.,theintrinsic growthrate)andaneconomicincentivedriver( i.e.,thediscountratesofthefisherstargetingit)canbeusedtoisolateareasoftheoceanwhereeconomicsandecologyarea “deadlycombination”(andwheretheyaren ot)tosupporteffectivefisheriesmanagement(Cheung&Sumaila,2015).Finally,inChapter8, Theperformanceofdifferentfisheries managementsystemsinrelationtoInfinityfish ,Idescribehowthediscountfactorsofboth managementauthoritiesandfishers( Tehetal.,2015)togethercouldbeemployedto determinehowthebestmanagementalternati veinagivensituationcanbeimplemented tobalancetheneedsofthecu rrentgenerationwiththoseoffuturegenerationsasit relatestofishstocks( Sumaila&Domı´nguez-Torreiro,2010 ).
Tacklingbroaderissuesinsupportof Infinityfish
Gettingvaluesandvaluationrightwouldhelpensurethatwecountthefishofour grandchildrenastheirfish, not ours,usingintergenerationaldiscounting.Doingsowould alsogetusonthepathto Infinityfish byhelpingusaddressamyriadofmultistressors plaguingouroceansandfisheries(Noone,Sumaila,&Diaz,2013).Itwillmotivatethe kindofmindsetthatwouldallowustoensureeffectivemanagement(Sumaila,2019)to dealwithotherdriversofoverfishing,whichisthesubjectofChapter9, Goodgovernanceof oceanandfishstocksneededtoensureInfinityfish.Suchdriversinclude(1)managingthe commonpropertynatureoffishstocks(Sumaila2012),exploredindetailinChapter10, AddressingthecommonpropertynatureoffishstocksinsupportofInfinityfish (Sumaila,2010); (2)eliminatingorredirectingharmfulfisheriessubsidies(Sumailaetal.,2019),whichis coveredinChapter11, FisheriessubsidiesareanobstacletoachievingInfinityfish;(3)the necessitytorebuildandrestoretheworld’sdepletedfishstocks(Sumaila,CisnerosMontemayoretal.,2012)discussedinChapter12, Rebuilddepletedfishstockstoensure Infinityfish;(4)howcrucialitistoavoidoilspills(Sumaila,Cheung,etal.,2012)and indeedotherpollutantsintotheocean(e.g.,plasticpollution; Lauetal.,2020),whichis addressedinChapter13, AvoidoilspillstosupportInfinityfish;(5)theurgentneedtoeliminateillegalandillicittradeinfishcatchdiscussedinChapter14, Illegalandillicittradein fishcatchareincompatiblewithInfinityfish (Sumaila,2018);and(6)recognizingandaddressingthefactthatclimatechangeisahugechallengeto Infinityfish (Sumaila&Tai,2020; Sumailaetal.,2011).Issuespertainingtoclimateandtheoceanarediscussedin Chapter15, ClimatechangeisahugechallengetoInfinityfish,andChapter16, Overfishing, climatechange,andthechanceofachievingInfinityfish.
Epilogue
Intheepilogue,Ihighlightakeyresultorinsightfromeachofthemainchaptersinthe bookandprovideabitmorerelatedinformation.
Thisbookarguesthatgettingvaluesandvaluationrightiscrucialandfundamentalto ensuringthat Infinityfish isnotlost.Thisisbecauseunderstandingthecentralityofthenaturalenvironment(includingtheoceanandthelifeitcontains)tothewell-beingandsurvival ofhumanitywillsetthetuneforthepoliciesweputinplacetoguideourinteractionswith it.Itwillhelpustakeactionsthatreinforcepositivefeedbackfrompeopletotheoceanand viceversa,ratherthanthecurrentsituationwheremanyofourpoliciesandactions,for exampletheprovisionofharmfulfishingsubsidies(Sumaila&Pauly,2007)ortheineffectivewaywecurrentlymanagethehighseas(Sumailaetal.,2015;White&Costello,2014; Sumailaetal.2007)leadtonegativefeedbackbetweentheoceanandpeople(Sumaila& Tai,2020).
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2
Gettingvaluesandvaluationrightis amustforachieving InfinityFish
Introduction
Mypointofdeparturehereisthatthereconciliationoffisheriestoconservationisall aboutvaluesandvaluation.Akeychallengetoeconomicsishowtovaluebenefitsfrom marineecosystemsinacomprehensivemannerandinawaythatcapturestheirlong-term conservationandthevalueofsustainingthebenefitstheyprovidethroughtime.Three keyquestionsIposeandaddressinthischapterarethefollowing:
• Doestheeconomictheoryofvaluationcapturethegeneralneedtoensurethatfisheries arereconciledwithconservationtoensure infinityfish?
• Doesthepracticeoffisheriesvaluationenhanceourabilitytoreconcilefisheriesto conservation?
• Whatnewvaluationapproachesarebeingdevelopedtosupporteffortstoreconcile fisherieswithconservation?
Theoryofvaluation
Theeconomictheoryofvaluationisbasedonwhatpeoplewant—theirpreferences (Arrowetal.,1993;Brown,1984).Thetheoryisthereforebasedonindividualpreferences andchoices.Peoples’preferencesareexpressedthroughthechoicesandtrade-offsthey makegiventheresourceandtimeconstraintstheyface.Itisthereforeextremelyimportant thatwecaptureagivenpopulation’spreferencesfullyintothedecision-makingprocess regardingtheuseandnonusevaluesofmarineecosystemresources,inparticular,andnaturalandenvironmentalresources,ingeneral.Theeconomictheoryofvaluationofnatural andenvironmentalresourcescallsforacomprehensivecompilationofallvaluesintoatotal economicvalue(Goulder&Kennedy,1997).Thetheorystipulatesthatthetotaleconomic value(TEV)shouldincludemarket1 andnonmarketvalues2,whichconsistsofdirectuse
1 Valuestradedinthemarket(e.g.,thevalueoffishcaughtandsoldinthemarket).
2 Valuesnottradedinthemarket[e.g.,existencevalue(seebelow)].
