ExtremeWild fireEvents andDisasters
RootCausesandNewManagement Strategies
Editedby
FantinaTedim
FacultyofArts,UniversityofPorto,Porto, Portugal;CharlesDarwinUniversity,Darwin, Australia
VittorioLeone
FacultyofAgriculture,UniversityofBasilicata (retired),Potenza,Italy
TaraK.McGee
DepartmentofEarthandAtmosphericSciences, UniversityofAlberta,Edmonton,AB,Canada
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Contributors
MiguelAlmeida ForestFireResearchCentreofADAI,UniversityofCoimbra, Coimbra,Portugal
MalikAmraoui CentrefortheResearchandTechnologyofAgro-Environmental andBiologicalSciences(CITAB),UniversityofTras-os-MontesandAltoDouro, VilaReal,Portugal
JoséAranha CentrefortheResearchandTechnologyofAgro-Environmentaland BiologicalSciences(CITAB),UniversityofTras-os-MontesandAltoDouro,Vila Real,Portugal
DavideAscoli DISAFADepartment,UniversityofTorino,Grugliasco,Italy
ChristopheBouillon NationalResearchInstituteofScienceandTechnologyfor EnvironmentandAgriculture(IRSTEA),RisksEcosystemsEnvironmentVulnerabilityResilience(RECOVER)researchunit,Aix-en-Provence,France
MarcCastelnou BombersGeneralitat.DGPEiS.DI.,Barcelona,Spain;University ofLleida,Lleida,Spain
PedroChamusca CentreofStudiesofGeographyandSpatialPlanning(CEGOT), UniversityofPorto,Portugal
FernandoJ.M.Correia FacultyofArtsandHumanities,UniversityofPorto,Porto, Portugal
MichaelCoughlan InstituteforaSustainableEnvironment,UniversityofOregon, Eugene,OR,UnitedStates
GiuseppeMarianoDelogu FormerChiefCorpoForestaleediVigilanza Ambientale(CFVA),AutonomousRegionofSardegna,Italy
PauloM.Fernandes CentrefortheResearchandTechnologyofAgro-Environmental andBiologicalSciences(CITAB),UniversityofTras-os-MontesandAltoDouro,Vila Real,Portugal
JoséRioFernandes CentreofStudiesofGeographyandSpatialPlanning (CEGOT),UniversityofPorto,Portugal
CarmenFerreira FacultyofArtsandHumanities,UniversityofPorto,Porto, Portugal
HolyHardin PublicAffairsScienceandTechnology(PAST)FusionCell,Argonne NationalLaboratory,Lemont,IL,UnitedStates
VittorioLeone FacultyofAgriculture,UniversityofBasilicata(retired),Potenza, Italy
HelenaMadureira CentreofStudiesofGeographyandSpatialPlanning(CEGOT), UniversityofPorto,Portugal
CatarinaG.Magalhaes FacultyofArtsandHumanities,UniversityofPorto,Porto, Portugal
SarahMcCaffrey RockyMountainResearchStation,USDAForestService,Fort Collins,CO,UnitedStates
TaraK.McGee DepartmentofEarthandAtmosphericSciences,Universityof Alberta,Edmonton,AB,Canada
AntonioOliveira CentrefortheResearchandTechnologyofAgro-Environmental andBiologicalSciences(CITAB),UniversityofTras-os-MontesandAltoDouro,Vila Real,Portugal
JoanaParente CentrefortheResearchandTechnologyofAgro-Environmentaland BiologicalSciences(CITAB),UniversityofTras-os-MontesandAltoDouro,Vila Real,Portugal
MarioG.Pereira CentrefortheResearchandTechnologyofAgro-Environmental andBiologicalSciences(CITAB),UniversityofTras-os-MontesandAltoDouro,Vila Real,Portugal;InstitutoDomLuiz,UniversityofLisbon,Lisbon,Portugal
LuísM.Ribeiro ForestFireResearchCentreofADAI,UniversityofCoimbra, Coimbra,Portugal
DominicRoyé UniversityofSantiagodeCompostela,SantiagodeCompostela, Spain
FantinaTedim FacultyofArtsandHumanities,UniversityofPorto,Porto, Portugal;CharlesDarwinUniversity,Darwin,NWT,Australia
DomingosX.Viegas ForestFireResearchCentreofADAI,UniversityofCoimbra, Coimbra,Portugal
GavriilXanthopoulos HellenicAgriculturalOrganization “Demeter ”,Instituteof MediterraneanForestEcosystems,Athens,Greece
Acknowledgments
Thisworkwaspreparedintheframeoftheproject ‘FIREXTR Preventandprepare societyforextreme fireevents:Thechallengeofseeingthe “forest” andnotjustthe “trees”’ (FCTRef:PTDC/ATPGEO/0462/2014),co-financedbytheEuropean RegionalDevelopmentFund(ERDF)throughtheCOMPETE2020 Operational ProgramCompetitivenessandInternationalization(POCIRef:16702)andnational fundsbytheFoundationforScienceandTechnology(FCT),Portugal.
Extremewild fireevents:The de
finition
FantinaTedim 1, 2 ,VittorioLeone 3 ,MichaelCoughlan 4 ,ChristopheBouillon 5 , GavriilXanthopoulos 6 ,DominicRoyé 7 ,FernandoJ.M.Correia 1 , CarmenFerreira 1 1FacultyofArtsandHumanities,UniversityofPorto,Porto,Portugal; 2CharlesDarwin University,Darwin,NWT,Australia; 3FacultyofAgriculture,UniversityofBasilicata(retired), Potenza,Italy; 4InstituteforaSustainableEnvironment,UniversityofOregon,Eugene,OR, UnitedStates; 5NationalResearchInstituteofScienceandTechnologyforEnvironmentand Agriculture(IRSTEA),RisksEcosystemsEnvironmentVulnerabilityResilience(RECOVER) researchunit,Aix-en-Provence,France; 6HellenicAgriculturalOrganization “Demeter” , InstituteofMediterraneanForestEcosystems,Athens,Greece; 7UniversityofSantiagode Compostela,SantiagodeCompostela,Spain
1.1.1Anescalatingworldwideproblem
Intheabsenceofhumanactivity,wild firesareanaturalphenomenoninmanytypesof vegetationcoverandforestecosystems,buttheircurrentmanifestationaroundthe worldisfarfrom “natural.” Humansmakethemworseateverystep;theiractivities arebecomingthepredominantcauseof firesandareincreasingtheavailableforest fuels(e.g.,plantinginappropriatespeciesforhigh-riskareas);bybuildingnexttoor insideforests,theyincreasetherisktopeopleandpropertyandcontributetothe riskof firespread [1].Notwithstandingescalatingmanagementcosts,increasedknowledge,developmentoftechnologicaltoolsanddevices,improvementoftraining,and reinforcementofresources,wildfirescontinuetosurpriseus,largelybecausetheaforementionedsocialactivitiesincreasethelikelihoodofextreme firebehaviorandimpacts.Climatechangeprocesseswillfurtherescalatetheassociatedriskandcosts.
Almosteveryyear,wild firesofunprecedentedsizeandintensityoccuraroundthe globe.Manyofthemprovokemassiveevacuation,fatalitiesandcasualties,anda highertollofdamage,exceedingallpreviousrecords.Thesepowerfulwildfi resrepresentaminorityamongallwild fires,buttheycreateadisproportionatelylargethreatto firefi ghtercrews,assets,naturalvalues,societies,andtheirmembers [2].SomecountriessuchasAustralia,UnitedStates,andCanadahavealonghistoryofthesepowerful andoftendestructivephenomena [3 10].
Withitsabundantforestsandextremelyhotanddryclimate,sinceEuropeansettlementAustraliahassufferedfromextremelydeadly fireevents;alongseriesstartingin 1851with BlackThursday [11],when fi rescoveredaquarterofwhatisnowVictoria.
Theseriesofferociousbushfirescontinuedwith1st February1898 RedTuesday that burnedout260,000ha,causedthedeathof12people,anddestroyedmorethan 2000buildingsinSouthGippsland;thenin1926inGippsland,EasternVictoria Black Sunday,with60fatalitiesandwidespreaddamagetofarms,homes,andforests. Finally,theseriespeakedwiththe1939 BlackFriday blazeinVictoria,whichkilled 71people,destroyedmorethan650structures,andburned1.5totwomillionhectares. Manyyearslater,in1983,inthe AshWednesday bushfires,inVictoriaandSouth Australia,morethan22 fi resburnedabout393,000haandkilled75people [12] Thenin2009, BlackSaturday firesbecometheworstinAustralia ’shistorywith 500injuredand173fatalities,farexceedingthelossoflifefromanypreviousbushfi res.ForsoutheasternAustralia(oneofthethreemost fire-pronelandscapesonEarth [13]),bushfi resexhibitanabruptincreaseinthefrequencyofpyrocumuloninbus (pyroCb;accordingtotheWorldMeteorologicalOrganization,pyrocumuloninbusis theunofficialnamefor cumulonimbus flammagenitus)eventsoverthelastdecade [10] andabiggervalueof fireintensityandtotalpowerinGW [14].
Thehistoryofwild fireintheUnitedStatesispepperedwithstoriesofdisasterand destructionleadingbackintothe19th century [15].From1871to1918,wild firesinthe Midwesternstatessparkedbysteam-poweredmachineryandfueledbythewasteof earlyindustrialloggingfrequentlyengulfedwholesettlements.Eveniflackofevidencepreventsusfromdefiningthebiophysicalseverityofthesehistoric firedisasters, thecontemporarycontextofseverewild firedisastersisneverthelesstiedtothishistory asaconsequenceofthe firesuppressionpolicythatemergedinthatperiod.Towardthe endofthisperiod(e.g., w1910),wild firesuppressionpolicybecamedoctrineinthe UnitedStatesasthefederalgovernmentsetouttoprotectitsnewNationalForests from fire.ThisprovedespeciallychallengingintheWesternUSwhereforestsare pronetolarge,standreplacing fires.Perhapsthe fi rstwell-documentedextreme fi re intheUnitedStatesisthe1933TillamookBurn.The fi restartedinhotanddryweather inlocationscharacterizedbycarelesslyleftloggingslashandburned16,000hainthe fi rst10days.When firefightersappearedtohaveitundercontrol,theonsetofgaleforcewindschanged firebehaviorabruptly.Within20hours,the fi reburnedanadditional97,000ha.This fi reproducedapyroCbcloud12.9kmhigh [15].Fire fighters wereoverwhelmedandhelplessintheireffortstostoptheblaze.Itwasonlyextinguishedtwoweekslaterbyheavyrain.Theburnt-overlandscapeofstandingdead treesprovidedfuelforadditionalcatastrophic fi resoverthefollowing20years.The burnalsoleftitslegacyinthe firesuppressionlandscapeservingastheimpetusfor the 10a.m.policy wherebyitbecamepolicyonNationalForesttoextinguish fi res by10a.m.themorningaftertheywerereported.
Currently,inmanypartsoftheUnitedStates,wildfi resarefueledbyalegacyof fire suppressionpractices.Thesehavecontributedtothebuild-upofdensefuelsinmany forestsafterthedisturbanceofoldgrowthforestsbylogging [4,7].Recentpowerful anddisastrouswildfi resinstatesasfarapartasTennessee(2016)andCalifornia (2017 18)havealsobeenattributedmainlytoextremeweatherevents,speci fically co-occurrenceofdroughtandhighwinds [3,9].The2016ChimneyTops2FireinTennesseekilled14peopleanddestroyed1684structures.Theblazewasfueledby droughtconditions,70yearsof firesuppression,andgustinghighwinds.Inthe Octoberof2017,theNunsFireinNorthernCaliforniakilled42people,destroyed 4ExtremeWild
nearly1355buildings,andburnedover225,000ha [16].TheNunsFirewasstartedby wind-damagedelectricalandgasutilitiesandspreadveryfastfannedbyseasonal windscalledthe “Diablowinds,” withgustsofupto110kmh 1.InJulyandAugust of2018,theCarrFireburnedover92,000ha.Itdestroyed1604structuresandhasbeen blamedforatleasteightdeaths,includingthree firefighters [16].Finally,theCamp FireignitedNovember8,2018,becameCalifornia’smostdestructiveanddeadliest wild fire.Fueledby20mpersecondwinds,the fireburned40,000hainthe first twodays,andthe firehadburnedover62,862ha;itdestroyed13,696residences and4821otherstructures,andkilledatleast85peopleinandaroundthetownofParadise,California [17]
Canada,similartotheUnitedStates,hasitsownlongengagementwithinfrequent, large,high-intensity,crown fires [5].Theiroccurrenceisanincreasingconcern [8] Themostdestructivewild firesintermsoflossoflivesandstructuresoccurredbetween 1825and1938 [8].In1911,1916,and1922 firesdestroyedmultipletownsinOntario, killingmorethan500people [18].Themostsignificantlossoflifeoccurredduringthe 1916Matheson firewithprobably223fatalities [19].Areducednumberofstructures havebeendestroyedsincethe1938DanceTownshipFire [19].In2003,inBritish Columbia,morethan338structuresandbusinessesweredestroyedoraffected,and threeoperationalstafflosttheirlives [20].In2011,theFlatTopComplexWildfi res destroyedabout340homes,sixbuildingswithseveralapartments,threechurches, and10businesses,aswellasaffectedthegovernmentcenter [8].Sometimesthese extreme firesarecharacterizedbylongdurationandsubstantialimpacts.ThedevastatingFortMcMurrayHorseRiverWildfireinAlberta,whichstartedonMay1st, 2016,andwasdeclaredoutafter15months,forcedsome90,000to fleethecityof FortMcMurrayandnearbycommunitiesintheRegionalMunicipalityofWoodBuffaloanddestroyed3244residentialandotherbuildings [21].Itburnedanddestroyed some589,552haofforest [22].
Inthelastfewdecades,thisrealityemergedinseveralcountries,mostnotablyin SouthernEuropeandSouthernAmerica,includingGreece(2007and2018),Portugal (2003,2005,and2017),andChile(2017).ChileandPortugalexperienced,in2017, theworst fireseasoneverrecorded,withunprecedentedeventsofextreme fire behavior.The2017 firesinChilewereofunusualsizeandseverityfortheaustralMediterraneanregions,affectingatotalof529,974ha;fourindividual firesburnedover 40,000haofland.Theyaffectedlargeextensionsofexoticforestplantationsof Pinus radiata and Eucalyptus [23].
InPortugal,afterthedisastrous fi reseasonsof2003and2005,2017broughtthe mostcatastrophicseasoneverwith112fatalitiesandwild firesthatreached firelineintensities(FLIs)of80,000kWm 1,rateofspread(ROS)of15.2kmh 1,andseveral episodesofdowndraftthatexplainmostofthelossoflives [24,25].InPedrogao GrandeFire(June2017)mostofthepeople(45outof66)diedontheroads,overtaken bythesudden,scaring,andextraordinary firemanifestationsspreadingwithamazing speedinacontinuousarti ficialforestcoverof Pinus and Eucalyptus.
InanotherMediterraneancountry,Greece,the fireproblemhasbeenworsening steadily,inspiteofincreasedinvestmentsin firefightingpersonnelandresources.After 17 fi rescausedfatalitiesin1993,and16fatalitiesin2000,in2007Greecefacedits worst fireseasonintermsofburnedareaaccompaniedbynumerousfatalities.In
thatdryyear,andfollowingthreeheatwaves,theconditionsbecameexplosivebetweenAugust23and27whenaseriesofalmostsimultaneousveryaggressive fires inPeloponnese,Attica,andEviaescapedinitialattack,overwhelmingthe firefighting forces.Theybroughttheburnedareatoapproximately270,000haofforest,olive grovesandfarmland,morethan5timestheaverage.Thedeathtollreached78people. Morethan100villagesandsettlementswereaffected,andmorethan3000homesand otherstructuresweredestroyed.The financialdamagebysomeestimatesreached five billionUS$ [26,27]
Asecondwild firedisasterhitGreecein2018,inaseemingly “easy” fi reseason, withunusuallyhighprecipitationuntilmid-July.OnJuly23,the fi rstdaywithpredictedveryhigh firedangerduetoexpectedextremelystrongwesterlywinds,an intense firestartedatmid-dayinwesternAttica,approximately50kmwestofAthens. While firefightingeffortswereconcentratedthere,asecond firestartedat16:41in EasternAttica,20kmnortheastofAthens.Fannedbyawest-northwestwindof 45 70kmh 1 withguststhatexceededeven90kmh 1,the fire firsthitthesettlementofNeosVoutzasandthen,movingwithapproximately4.0kmh 1,spread throughthesettlementofMati,burningmosthomesinitspathuntilitreachedthe sea.Neitherthegroundforcesthatwereslowtorespondnortheaerialresources thathadtofacetheextremewindcoulddomuchtolimitthedisaster.Manypeople whotriedtoescapebyrunningtowardtheseaweretrappedbythe fireonthesteep cliffabovethewaterandlosttheirlife.Therewerealsofatalitiesamongthehundreds ofpeoplewhomanagedtoreachthewater,eitherduetotheeffectsofheatandsmoke orduetodrowning.Althoughtheburnedareawasonly1431ha,100peoplelosttheir lives,makingthisEasternAtticaFirethesecond-deadliestwildfi reinthe21stcentury, aftertheKilmoreEastFirein2009inVictoria(Australia)thatkilled120people [28].
InNorthEurope,extraordinarywildfi rescanassumelargesizeinareasnormally characterizedbytherelativeabsenceof fires.Forinstance,thewild fireofV€ astmanland incentralSwedenthatstartedonJuly31st,2014,burned13,800haofforestmainly coveredbywind-fallentrees.Thewild firecausedonefatalityandrequiredFrench andItalianwaterbomberstocomeandhelp fi ghtthe fire.Morethan1000people and1700animals(cattleandsheep)wereevacuated,andthousandsofpeoplewere preparedforevacuationwhenthe fireapproachedtowns.Approximately,1.4million cubicmetersofwoodand71buildingsweredamagedordestroyedbythe fire [29].
Thegrowingincidenceofsuchlarge-scaleanddisastrous fireeventsaroundthe globemakesitimportanttodevelopamethodtoclassifyandde finethem.Doingso isanessentialprecursortothedevelopmentofacommoninternationalapproachto theirstudyandtothedevelopmentoftheriskreductionandresponsecapabilities requiredtomanageriskthatwillonlyincreaseinthecomingdecades,namelydue toclimatechange.
1.1.2Theneedofastandardizeddefinition
Theaforementionedwild fireshavecapturedtheattentionofthescientificcommunity andhavebeenstudiedusingdifferentanalyticalapproachesfromaseriesofdisciplines (e.g., fi reecology,forestry,engineering,geography,anthropology,psychology,or
socialsciences),benefitingfromthetechnologicaladvancesincomputersciences, remotesensingdata,thedevelopmentofsoftwaretoolssuchasGeographicalInformationSystems(GIS),and firebehaviorandspreadmodeling;however,almostevery disciplinehasitsowndefinitionofthesewild fireswhichseemtopossess,bythemselves,nointrinsicidentity [30]
Inthescientificliterature,wefound25termstolabelthesewild fires.Thisplurality ofterminologyisaccompaniedbyadiversityofdescriptorscovering firebehavior, post firemetrics,impacts,and fireenvironment(Table1.1).Furthermore,evenwhere thesametermisused,noagreementonthedescriptorsusedwasfound.Someofthe descriptorsdonotpresentquantitativethresholds,and,forthesamedescriptor,thresholdsaregreatlyvariableandinfl uenced,amongotherthings,bythedistributionof fire sizeswithineachregionorecoregion,geographicalconditions,andlandscapevegetationcomposition [31].
Amongthetermsdescribedin Table1.1,extremewild fireevent(EWE)bestcapturesthenatureofwild firesthatexhibitcharacteristicsofextremebehaviormanifestationswithextremelyhighpowerand,frequently,unusualsize,thusexceedingthe capacityofcontroleveninthemostpreparedregionsoftheworld.Theycausemajor negativesocioeconomicimpactsandundesirableenvironmentaleffects,iftheyoccur inareasofsocialconcentrationorenvironmentalimportance.
Theterm “extreme” isusuallyusedasthetopvalueofarangeofcategoriesor “extremevalues” ofastatisticaldataset,exhibitingatypicalheavytaileddistribution ofdata.Inthiscasewhatcanbecalledextremeeventcanvaryfromregiontoregionin anabsolutesense.ThismethodofanalysisiscorrectbutdoesnotcontributetounderstandingtheidentityofEWE.Incontrast,thedefi nitionofEWEproposedbyTedim etal.[31] isanattempttocreateanoverarchingcategorization,adoptingselectedattributesofwild firehazard.Thisapproachwaspossiblebyusinganinterdisciplinary approachandevidencefromanalysesofwildfi reeventsindifferentregionsofthe world.
1.2EWEdefinitionandrationale
1.2.1EWEdefinition
ThedefinitionofEWEsbyTedimetal.([31],p.10)is: “apyro-convectivephenomenonoverwhelmingcapacityofcontrol(firelineintensitycurrentlyassumed 10,000kWm-1;rateofspread >50m/min),exhibitingspottingdistance > 1km,and erraticandunpredictable firebehaviorandspread. Itrepresentsaheightenedthreat tocrews,population,assets,andnaturalvalues,andlikelycausesrelevantnegative socio-economicandenvironmentalimpacts.” Fig.1.1 presentsavisualrepresentation oftheaforementioneddefinition,whereallthecomponentsareconsidered.Itisevident thatsomeEWEscangeneratehugeimpactsandthusturnintoadisaster,requiringprolongedsocioenvironmentalrecoveryandreinstatementofsocioenvironmentalresources,amenityvalues,andculturalheritage.
Sudden changes ofbehavior
aAndalsoextremewildfire,extremebushfireevent,extreme fireevent,extreme fire. bItincludeshighlevelofenergy,chaos,nonlinearity,massspotting,eruptive firebehavior,vorticity-drivenlateralspread,violentpyroconvectiveactivity.
AnEWEisaverycomplexprocess,andthethresholdsusedinitsdefinitionresult fromadeepanalysisofthestateof firescience.EWEsarecharacterizednotjustby theirscalebutalsobytheirerraticandunpredictablebehavior.Thelatterreflects how,as firesbecomemoreextreme,theircomplexpatternsofinteractionwiththe ecological,forest,agricultural,andbuiltenvironmentsinfluencetheirbehavior [32]; eachofitsphysicalattributesisrelatedandinfluenceeachotherinaconcreteway andcreatesfeedbacks.However,ifthe fi reisabove10,000kWm 1 buttheROSis 40mmin 1 insteadofover50mmin 1,asproposedinthedefinition,canwestill classifythe fi reasEWE?Theanswerisaffirmativebecausethemostsociallyrelevant EWEattributeistheFLIthatprecludesanyefforttocontrolthe fire,andintheexample presented,thevalueisabovethethreshold.FuturemeasurementsofEWEswillhelpto validateandtoadapttheselectedthresholds.
EWEsareincreasinglyfrequenteventsthatexhibitnon-instantaneousextreme behaviorforatleastseveralhours,but normal fires [31] toocanhavepunctualmanifestationsofextreme firebehavior(e.g., firewhirls)becauseofthecombinationof severalconditions,forinstance,theinfl uenceoftopography;theycancreatelocalsituationsthatexplaintheentrapmentof firefightercrewswithtragicend.
Fromthenaturalhazards fi eld,ithasbeenshownthatriskperceptionisinfl uenced bythephysicalcharacteristicsofthehazard [33];thus,agoodunderstandingofEWEs isfundamentaltodecreasetheirimpacts.
AcompleteunderstandingoftheEWEdefinitioniseasierifwediscussitsrationale, valorizing:ThephysicalpropertiesofEWE;thedurationofanEWE;thesize;theconsequences;andthefactthatanEWEdoesnotnecessarilycreateadisaster. Fig.1.2 helps tomakeclearthisdiscussion;itdepictshowphysicalpropertiesof firesinteractwith Figure1.1 ThevisualrepresentationofEWEdefinition.
humandimensions,i.e.,humanactions,residentialdevelopmentpatterns(RDPs),and Wildland UrbanInterface(WUI)characteristics,inthecontextofsocioecologicalsystems [34],wherewildfiresoccur,thusinfluencing firebehavioranditsconsequences.
1.2.2EWEdefinitionrationale
1.2.2.1ThephysicalpropertiesofEWEs
ThepillarofEWEdefinitionarephysicalattributesconcerningthepyroconvectivenatureofthephenomenonand firebehaviorwhichresultfromtheinteractionofhuman andnaturalsystems.Itisevidentfrom Fig.1.2 that,afterthe fi reoutbreak, fi reprogressionandspreadareinfluencedbytheinteractionandfeedbackbetweenthe fi reenvironment(characterizedbyseveralfactors,suchasfuelloadandcharacteristics, existenceofdrought,andweatherconditions),topography,humanactivities(e.g., landuseoptions,landmanagement,theuseofprescribedburning, firesuppressionactions),andWUIcharacteristicsandRDPs.
Thescientificcommunityidenti fiesasthemainphysical firepropertiesFLI, flame length(FL),andROS,whichcanallbeexpressedinquantitativeterms.Another important firepropertywhichisexpressedqualitativelyisthepresenceornotof
Figure1.2 EWEdefinitionrationale.Theredbarsrepresent fireswithdifferentFLI.Thelonger thebar,thehighertheintensity.Theimpactsof firesresultfromtheinteractionandfeedbacks betweenthephysicalcharacteristicsof firesandthevulnerabilityofexposedelements.A wild firebecomesanEWEwhenitsfeaturesexceedthecapacityofcontrol(10,000kWm 1). Thelettersa,b,c,andd,respectively,indicate(a) fireundercontrolcapacity(i.e.a normal fire) butaffectingavulnerableareaprovokingadisaster;(b)anEWEturningintoadisaster;(c)an EWE;and(d)awildfirebelowthecapacityofcontrol(i.e.a normal fire).
spotting;however,whenpresent,itisfurtherdescribedbyfrequency,distance,andaccelerationofspot fires.Lessfrequentlyused firepropertiesaresmokeandradiantheat thatarethemainkillers [35] andconvectivephenomenathatincreasetheextremeness oftheevent.Whereasconvectiveactivityisincludedinthedefi nition,local fire weather,smoke,andradiantheatarenotconsideredbecauseoftheimpossibilityto establishthresholdsthatcouldhaveworldwiderepresentativeness.
FLIisthepivotal firebehaviorparameterandcanbedeterminedfrommeasurementsorobservationsofROSandfuelconsumption [36] oralternativelyfromFL,usingsimpleequations [37].FLIinfluencesthecapacityofcontrol,andthevalueof 10,000kWm 1 iscurrentlyacceptedasthethresholdofimpossibilityofcontrol [38 40].Beyond10,000kWm 1,itiswellacceptedthatevenheavywaterbombers areineffective [41],and fi recontrolisnotpossiblewithcurrentdaytechnologyand technicalresources [42].WithanincreasingFLI,thequantityofwaterrequiredas anextinguishingagenttocontainthe flamesgrows.Inaddition, fireintensityinfluencesthepatternof fi reseveritythroughouttheaffectedarea [43,44] andtheresistance ofthestructures,consequentlyactingonthelossesandthenumberoffatalities.
ROSisimportantto firefightingstrategyand firesize [45] affectingthecapacityof suppressionandtheabilitytomoveawayfroma firesafely [2].ROSisdependenton thetype,loadandcontinuityoffuel,topography,andweatherconditions(mainlywind velocity).ThehighertheROS,thewiderthespreadofwild fire,thusincreasingthe perimeterof flames [46].ROScanreachvaluesofabout20kmh 1 [47];itisconsideredextremewhenitis 3kmh 1 [47],andisoftenaugmentedbymassivespotting. ROSaffectsdeploymentofcrewsandresources,theefficacyofthesuppressionoperationswithcascadeeffectsontheimpactsinducedbythearrivalofa firefront:Decisionstostayanddefendassetsorleave,andevacuationofpeopleandanimals.This showstheimportanceofsocietalandcommunityresponses.Themorethepeople haveactedtoprepareland/properties(e.g.,communitywidedefensiblespacescan create firebreakstoslow firespread,increaseefficacyofsuppression),themorethe timecrewswillhavetorespondandreducelocalizedrisk;thiscanmakeiteasier forthemtoplanwheretheycandeploylimitedresources.
FLinfl uencestheabilityofa firetocrossbarriersandsospreadindiscontinuous fuels [48],reachcanopies [49],andaffectradiationloadonbuildings [2,50]
Spottingactivity(i.e.,theignitionofnew firestartsoutsidethe fireperimeterby fi rebrandsofbark,needles,twigs,pinecones,acorns,moss,orlargeremberslaunched fromaprimary fire,conveyedbytheconvectivecolumnandlandingonreceptivefuels [51 53])actstocarry fireacrossgapsinvegetation(fi rebreaks,agricultural fields, etc.)andtoignitebuildings [50,54].InEWEsthepowerfulconvectioncolumn,the strongprevailingwindand/orthehotdowndraftsfromthecolumnandthepreheated deadfuelsresultinspottingdistancessometimesexceeding10ormorekilometers, renderingallpreventiveeffortstocreatehorizontalfueldiscontinuityuseless [2,52,53,55,56].Rapidaccelerationofspot fires,duetohighwindandverydryfuels, cansharplyincreasetheriskof firefighterentrapment [56].Inthepresenceofspecies withloose fi brousbark(e.g., E.obliqua and E.macrorhyncha)aconcentratedshort distancespottingisthemain firepropagationmechanism,whilethe fi rebrandsresponsibleforlong-rangespottingarelongribbonsofdecorticatingbarkofsomesmooth-
barkedeucalyptspecies,suchas E.viminalis,E.globulus,andE.delegatensis [56] Long-rangespottingrequiresastrongupwardmotionbythebuoyantplumetotransportrelativelylarge firebrandsseveralkilometersabovethegroundandhighwinds alofttotransportfuelparticlesforextendeddistancesdownwind [56].
EWEsareviolentpyroconvectivephenomena,forwhichalargeintegralofinstantaneousenergyrelease(IIER)ormagnitudeisrequired [57].Pyroconvectiveactivity andthecreationofapyroCboccurwhenaveryintense firegeneratesheat,moisture, gases,andparticles,intheformofaplumewithanupwardmovement,poweredbythe amountofenergyreleasedbythecombustion,integratedbythelatentheatreleased whenvaporcondensationoccurs [6,57 59].Whentheverticalupwardmotionceases, convectiveupdraftscanreverseandbecomedowndrafts,whichhitthegroundand spreadout,inalldirections,soinducingchangeablewinddirectionandbecoming responsiblefortheerratic firespread [60],withimplicationsfor firefighters’ andpeople safety.Rarely,apyroCbproducesdownbursts,whicharegusty,erratic,andintense windscausingunpredictablechangesin fi reintensity,FL,ROS,directionof fi re spread,andemberspotting [61].
Thelevelofthreata firerepresentstosocietyisthusstronglyinfluencedbythecharacteristicsof firebehavior.Forinstance,a firewithanFLof0.5minanycontext cannotproduceintensitiesthatoverwhelmthecapacityofsuppression,whereasthe radiantheatof flamesthatleap100mabovethetreeline,asinAustraliain2009, cankillfrom300m [62]
AnEWEdefinitionthatfocusesonthephysicalattributesofa firecanbeusedin anypartoftheworldbecauseitisnotplace-dependentasthe fireprocessisthe sameeverywhere.Atsametime,presentingthecapacityofcontrolasathresholdto defineanEWE,itispossibletounderstandthelimitationsofsuppressioncapacityresourcesandsystems(muchlessthan10%ofthe fireintensityspectrumobservedin wild fires [55]),consideringthatthehighestFLIrecordsofarcanbe 150,000kWm 1 for2009KilmoreandMurrundindiVictorian fires [63]).Thisdoes notmeanthatthisvaluerepresentsthemaximumFLIthata firecanreach.
Inaddition,itispossibletohaveanabsolutescaleof firepowerwiththeresultthat, independentofgeographicalandculturalcontext,anEWEisanEWEanywhereinthe world,regardlessofthevariabilityofconsequences.Thissupportstheimportanceof includingcomplementarysocialresponsecapability(e.g.,householdandcommunity actionsonvegetationmanagement,creationofdefensiblespaces,increasehouseresistance,physicalandmentalpreparedness)thatcanslow firespread,reduce fi reintensity andsourcesofspottingtosomeextent,andreducetherisktodwellingsandmainlyto people.
1.2.2.2ThedurationofanEWE
Awild fireclassifi edasanEWErequiresthatinsomemoment,itpresentsthecharacteristicsandthecriticalthresholdscontainedinthedefinition.Toreachthem,itis necessaryfor firetospreadforsometimetogainenergypotentialwhichdepends onseveralconditions(e.g.,amountandstateofthefuel,weatherconditions,atmosphericinstability),butthiscanoccurshortlyafterthe fireoutbreak.InPedrog~ ao
Grande(2017,Portugal),the fi retookjust2hourstoassumethecharacteristicsofan EWE,althoughthemaximumintensityoccurredabout6hoursafterthe fireoutbreak; mostofthelossesandfatalitiesoccurredinlessthananhour [25]
Theperiodwhenthe fireexhibitsviolentbehaviorandwhenmostdamageoccursis arelativelyshortinterval,althoughtheseperiodscanrecurinclosesuccession [64].In theTasmania fireof7February1967,injust5hours,226,500ha,or85%ofthetotal areaof264,000ha,burnedcausingextensivedamage.Theremaining36,000ha burnedoveraperiodofseveralweeksafterward [65]
EWEscanpersistoverprolongedperiodsoftime,butthiscannotbeadefi ningcharacteristic,asitstronglydependsonthecontinuityandamountoffuelsandpersistence offavorableweatherconditions. BlackFriday fireinAustralia(w36,000kWm 1), 1939,isconsideredoneoftheworsteventsinthecountrybutdidnotburnfora longtimebecauseofsuddenweatherchanges,namelyrainfall [66].KilmoreEast fi re(2009,Victoria,Australia)burnednearly100,000haanddestroyedmorethan 2200buildingsinthe first12h.The firemergedwiththeMurrindindi fi re,burning approximately400,000haoveraperiodof3weeks [56].
Asthedurationofawildfi reisvariableeveninthesamecountrybecauseitis dependentonthe fi reenvironment,itisnotpossibletodetermineathresholdthatcould beusedworldwide.
1.2.2.3Theconstraintsofwildfiresize
EWEsasapyroconvectivephenomenonwouldmostcertainlybelarge,butsizeisnota suitabledescriptorofthistypeofeventsasitisaveryweakandmisleadingattribute. Asaruleofthumb,thediameterofthe flamingzonecanbearoughmeasureofthe heighttowhichtheconvectioncolumnresists,mixingwiththeairitispassingthrough asitrises [58].AtthepointofpyroCbonset,the flamingzoneisunusuallylargeand fl ame-frontintensityissimultaneouslygreat [67].IntheEWEofPedrogaoGrande (2017,Portugal),thehighestintensity(upto60,000kWm 1)withadownburstphenomenonoccurredabout6hoursafterthe fireoutbreak,whenthe firewasonlyabout 3799haoutof29,354ha;in1hour(from8to9p.m.),the fireburned4459ha [25]. Thereisastronginversecorrelationbetweentheprobabilityofcontainingwild fires and firesizeandintensity.Anattempttoquantifythisrelationshipforinitialattack crewsinCanadawasmadebyHirschandMartell [40] andHirschetal. [68],and althoughnotformallydocumented,thesametypeofrelationshipexistsforsuppression activitiesbyairtankers(K.Hirschpers.com.).
Sizeandseveritydonothaveadirectcorrelation,asthelatterreflectstheinteraction betweenlandscapecharacteristicsand firebehavior.Evenvery-high-intensity fires createanheterogenouspatternofburningseverityinsidetheaffectedarea [44,69] Sizetellsuslittleaboutlosseswhichdependontheaffectedareacharacteristics, and,mainlyonthevulnerabilityoftheexposedpopulationandassets.Forinstance, inthenorthernCaliforniawild fireeventinOctober2017,theTubbsFireburned 14,895ha,destroyed5636structures,anddamaged317ones,whileNunsFirewas alargerevent(burned22,877ha)withlowerdestruction(itdestroyed1355structures anddamaged172ones) [9].TheEasternAtticaFire(Greece,2018)isanotherexcellent
exampleofawild firethatprovokeshugedestructionandlossoflives,whileitonly burned1431habecauseitstoppedwhenreachedthesea.
Finally,sizecanalsobetheresultofwildland fireuse,whichisanaccepted fire managementpracticeinareaswherenaturallycausedwildfi resarenotathreattoassets,homes,orpeopleasithappensintheUnitedStates.
As firesizesvarytremendouslyaroundtheworld,selectionofanabsolute firesize forEWEatworldlevelisdif ficulttoestablishorevenimpossible,asitisplacedependent.
1.2.2.4EWEconsequencesareplace-dependent
Althoughthequantitativemetricsusedinourdefi nitionaresolelybasedonthephysicalattributesofthewild fires,wedonotignorethatcontextmatters.Thus,in Fig.1.2 wedepicttheinfluenceoffactorsaffecting firebehaviorandtheirthreattosociety.The roleofthecontextisindirectlypresentinitsinfluenceonthephysicalcharacteristicsof fire(e.g.,land/forestusepracticesatcommercial,communityandregionallevelsof analysis)and,directly,inthehumanactionsthatinfluence firebehavior(e.g.,defensiblespace),aswellastheimpactsoncrews,population,assets,naturalvalues,socioeconomicactivities,andenvironment.
Sometimes fireconsequenceshavebeenusedtodefineextremeevents.However, theintegrationofconsequencesinthedefinitionofextremeisnotconsensualandin ouropinionisinadequate.Recentandspecializedliterature findstheintroductionof impactsinthedefi nitionofextremeeventsveryconcerningbecauseifthepurpose isreducingthelossesandimpactsandtheseareincludedinthedefinition,howisit possibletoassesstheefficiencyofmanagementorresiliencetoextremeevents? [70] Theimpactsofextremeeventsaregovernednotonlybythephysicalpropertiesof thehazardbutalsobythecharacteristicsofplaces(e.g.,thecharacteristicsoftheWUI) andpeople’spreparedness.ThephysicalattributesofEWEs(Fig.1.2)characterizethe levelofthreatandactastriggersonvulnerablesocietiesandecosystems [71,72];betweenthesetwocomponents,thereisaloop [73],butitisnotadequatetointegrate impactsinthedefinitionofEWE.Ifwedonotestablishadifferentiationbetween EWEanditsimpacts,webecomeunabletoaddresshowprevention,andmitigation hasdecreasedvulnerabilityandincreasedtheeffi cacyofsocialandeconomicrecovery post-event.
1.2.2.5EWEanddisaster
Tedimetal. [31] clearlydifferentiatedanEWEfromadisasterrecognizingthat(1)not allEWEsproducehugeconsequencesbecausenotallEWEswillaffectpeopleandsocietalresources;itisimportanttoconsiderwhetheraneventwillimpactvulnerable peopleandassets.Lossesofsocialassetsmaybeexacerbatedbyfactorssuchaslocation,buildingmaterials,design,andcommunitiesurbanplanning [45,74 76];and(2) normal fires canalsoproducehugeconsequencesbecauseofinadequatemanagement orcontrolactions(e.g.,lackofresources,lackofcoordination,wronginstructionsand
16ExtremeWildfireEventsandDisasters
evaluationofsituations),lackofpreparednessbyindividualsandconcernedcommunities,orpoorlandmanagement.
Thecircumstancesaroundfatalitiesarerelatedto(1)people’sattitudesand behavior,forinstance,last-minutedecisiontoevacuateorescape,lackofawareness andpreparedness [77 79];(2)spatialandenvironmentalconditions [6,14,28];and (3)entrapmentsandburnover [80 82].
Forinstance,inCanada, firesthatexhibitextreme fi rebehavioroccureachyear. Throughouttheboreal,manyofthese firesstartnaturally(andhavebeendoingso forcenturies)buthavelittledirectnegativeimpactonpeopleorecosystemsalthough theirbehaviorisextreme.IftheFortMcMurrayHorseRiverFireof2016hadstarted 50kmeastofwhereitdid,itwouldhavehadlittlesocialand/oreconomicimpactand nothavebeenonthenationalandinternationalnewsformonths.Itmostlikelywould havebeencomparabletothe2011RichardsonFirethatwas100 150kmnorthofFort McMurrayandburnedroughlythesameamountofarea(w500,000ha)butwasinno wayseenasadisaster.
Ontheotherhand,sometimessmallbutintense firescancausedamagetohomes andpeople.AnexamplecouldbetheTubbsFire,in2017,inCalifornia;itwasnot thelargestwild firebutwasthemostdestructive(atthetime)asitmoveddownslope intothecityofSantaRosaandthesurroundingcommunities [9].In1994,ofthe fires aroundSydney(Australia),themostdestructivewasoneofthesmallest:Withjust 476ha,andwithamaximumintensityabout6650kWm 1,theComo-JanelliFireprovokedfourfatalitiesandthelossof99houses [14,45].TheMountCarmelFirein December2010,inIsrael,burnedabout4000habutclaimed44lives.
Anotherexcellentexampleisthe2018wild firedisasterinEasternAtticainGreece alreadydescribed.
1.3Awild fireclassi fication:Integrating fireintensity withpotentialconsequences
Thewild fireclassi ficationproposedbyTedimetal. [31] isnotthe firstonedeveloped. Byram [83] wasthe firsttocomeupwiththeideaofmeasuring firesbytheirrateof heatrelease [84].Ratherpopularwild firesclassifi cationshavebeenproposed [38,79 90],allofthemmainlybasedonmeasurableparametersof firebehavior, suchasFLandFLI.Someoftheseclassi ficationsareintegratedwithnarrative,interpretationof firebehavior,typeof fire,andsuppressioninterpretation [40].Theseclassi ficationsonlyreferto fi resbelowthethresholdof10,000kWm 1 [86,87,89,91],so theycannotbeappliedtoEWEs.Inothercases,theupperlimitis > 10,000kWm 1 [38,92],avaluewhichonlyrepresentsthelower10%ofthe fireintensityspectrum observedinwildfires [56] andcannotbeappliedtoEWE,whichcovertheremaining 90%,precautionarilyconsideringtheupperlimitofFLIin100,000kWm 1 [84,93,94].Thepurposeoftheclassi ficationsdescribedearlierwastoprovideinformationon firefightingproductivityandeffectivenessofsuppressiontosupportplanning andtactics.
Gill(1998) [84] proposedaclassifi cationbasedonsevencategoriesof fireintensity tofacilitatethecommunicationofthenatureof firevariation,thehighestonebeing between35,000and100,000kWm 1,asitwassupposedthe firescouldnotgo overlevel7.Therecentvaluesofintensityofabout150,000kWm 1 providedbyTolhurst [63] forVictorian firesinAustralia,2009,confi rmthatEWEsareunpredictable phenomenathatcanevolvetounknownlimits,especiallyconsideringtheinfluenceof climatechange.
InFrance,aprototypeofwild firesclassi ficationproposedbyLampin-Cabaretetal. [95] isbasedonintrinsicphysicalmeasurementofthephenomenonanditsconsequences.Ithasaposterioripurposeandnopredictivecharacter;itclassifi es fi res dependingontheeffectsanddamagefoundonstandardelementsofthe fi reenvironment(vegetation,people,buildings,andinfrastructures)butdoesnotcharacterizethe levelofriskofforest firehazard,northeeconomicconsequencesoftheevent.
Morerecently,exploratorystudieswereconductedtosupportthedevelopmentofa bushfireseverityscaletoprovideawarningforpotentiallossesofpropertiesandhuman lives [6].Thesestudiesrecognizetheimportanceof firepowertoexplainitsdestructive potential,asastrongerrelationshipexistsbetweencommunitylossandthepowerofa fire [6,14,96].Inaddition,thesestudiesdemonstratethatthecurrent firedangerscale usedtoassesstheprobabilityfor fireoccurrenceandthespreaddynamicsaswellas thedifficultyofcontroldonotadequatelyreflectthedestructivepotentialofa fire [6].
Thewild fireclassificationproposedbyTedimetal. [31] recognizestheimportance of firepowertoexplainthelosses,butitdoesnotonlyfocusonFLI,adoptingamulticriteriaapproachtomakethescaleprecise,objective,andoperational.Theparameters usedtocreatethisclassificationarereal-timemeasurablebehaviorparameters(FLI, ROS,andFL)andreal-timeobservablemanifestationsofextreme firebehavior(presenceofpyroCbanddowndrafts,spottingactivity,anddistance) [31].Itpresentsseven categoriesof fi res,fourlabeledas normal fires (categoriesonetofour)andthreeatthe highestend(categories fivetoseven)thatcoverdifferentcategoriesofEWEs.Whereas thecurrentclassifi cationsofsomenaturalhazardsaredescriptive(e.g.,Richterand Mercalliscalesforearthquakes)orprospective(e.g.,SaffirSimpsonscaleforhurricanes),theclassifi cationbyTedimetal. [31] isbothdescriptiveandprospective.
Oneofthepossiblecriticismsiswhethertheclassifi cationproposedbyTedimetal. [31] developsaholisticviewofEWEsasasocioecologicalphenomenon;itseemsto bebasedsolelyonmeasurable firebehaviorparametersandsuppressiondifficulty.The secondsentenceoftheEWEdefinitionincludesstatementsrelatedtothepotential impactofwild fireswhichrevealitasakeyaspectofthedefinition.Peoplecaneasily understandthata fireofcategory7canprovokemorelossesandinjuriesthanoneof category2,applyingthesamelogicofothernaturalhazardsclassi fications.Consideringthatmanytimespeopleneedtofacea firebythemselves,itiscrucialthatcitizens areawareaboutthethreatsandthepotentialconsequencestoprotectthemselvesin fireswithdifferentintensities.
Toimprovetheclassifi cationbyTedimetal. [31],inthischapterwehaveenhanced itbyintegratingthemultiple fireattackmechanisms(i.e.,smoke,radiantheat, flames, spotting,andwind)andtheirpotentialconsequencestopeople,crews,andassets,in eachofthesevencategoriesof fi res(Table1.2).Theproposedintegrationisnotbased
Table1.2 Wildfireclassificationintegratingpotentialphysicalandpsychologicalconsequences.
PhysicalPsychological
Category
PeopleCrewPeopleCrew
Normal fires1Nulltominimum.1)Nulltominimum.2)Minor problemsfromlackofsafety rulescompliance.
2Minimumtomediumbecausethereis generallyadequatetimetoreact.
1)Possible,butrare,minor problemsbecausethereis generallyadequatetimeto react.2)Problemsinthecase ofinappropriateormissing useofpersonalprotective equipment(PPE).
Possiblebutrareepisodesof stress.
Possiblebutuncommonepisodes ofstressbecausethereistime forrationalthinking,although higherifpeopleare unpreparedoreventsoccur duringthedaywhenparents areatwork,childrenareat school.Familyseparationand uncertaintyregardingthe locationandsafetyofothers increasestress.
Lowbecauseallsmall fires includethepotentialto escalate.
Low/moderatebecauseof thepotentialof fireto escalate.
Assets/StructuresEcosystems
Nulltominimum.Nulltominimum.
Possiblebutraredamage.Lowtomedium burningseverity.
31)Possibleaccidentsbyinappropriate attitudeandbehaviorconcerning evacuationorshelteringinplace.2) Possibleinjuriesfromdirect flame contactifpeoplearenotadequately trainedandpreparedtofacethe fire bythemselves.3)Possiblebutrare fatalities.4)Autonomousdefense usinghosesandwaterispossiblebut risky,especiallyinthecaseofan electricalpowerfailure(orshut-off bythepowercompany)whilethere isnoback-upofpetroldriven generators.5)Likelyinadequate responseforevacuationofdisabled orelderlypeople.
1)Possibleentrapmentand burnover,especiallyfromnot observingwhatthe fireis doingatalltimesandthinking ofwhatitwillbedoingnext. 2)Problemsfromlackof safetyrulescompliance.3) Seriousproblemsinthecase ofinappropriateormissing useofPPE.
1)Sporadicepisodesofstress becauseofthereducedtime forrationalthinking,lackof information,andtheabsence of firefighters’ support.2) Stresscanbehigherifpeople areunpreparedoreventsoccur duringthedaywhenparents areatworkandchildrenareat school.Familyseparationand uncertaintyregardingthe locationandsafetyofothers increasestress.
1)Possibleoccurrenceof stressduetolackof information,weaknesses inthecontroland commandchain,resource availability,and deploymenttotackle fires. 2)Fatigueandexhaustion canincreaserisk.
Possiblebutnotfrequent.Lowtohighburning severity.
41)Majoraccidentsmaybecausedby inappropriateattitudeandbehavior concerningtimelyevacuationor passivesheltering.2)Difficultyto findadequateresponsefor evacuationofnonmobilepeople: Children,disabled,orelderly people.3)Highdifficultyof autonomousdefensewithout adequateawarenessand preparednesstofacetheaggressive assaultofthe flames.4)
Impossibilityofautonomous defenseusinghosesandwaterinthe caseoflackofelectricityandthe inexistenceofpetrol-driven generators.5)Injuriesandfatalities fromdirect flamecontact.6)
Accidentsontheroadfromsmoke, flames,radiantheat,andfalling trees.7)Difficultyofcirculationby carfromlackofvisibility.8)The survivalconditionsareverydifficult sorequiringadditionalprecautions.
51)Difficultyto findadequateresponse forevacuationofnonmobilepeople: Children,disabled,orelderly people.2)Possiblefatalitiesincase ofescapeoroutsidehouses.3) Extremedifficultyofautonomous defense.4)Impossibilityof autonomousdefenseusinghoses andwaterinthecaseoflackof electricityandtheinexistenceofa petrol-drivengenerators.5)Relevant problemsofhealthfromradiantheat andsmoke.6)Highdifficultyof
1)Thelikelihoodofentrapment andburnoverincreases.2)
Fatalproblemsfromlackof compliancewithsafetyrules, especiallyfromnotknowing whatthe fireisdoingatall timesandinabilitytopredict whatitwillbedoingnext.3)
Fatalproblemsincaseof inappropriateormissinguse ofPPE.4)Difficultyof circulationofvehiclesfrom lackofvisibility.5)Difficulty toimpossibilityofaerial operationsfromsmoke,wind, andconvectiveactivity.6) Relevantproblemsofradiant heatwithconsequent exhaustionof firefighters.
1)Feelingoffear,loss,orlackof control,anxiety,affectingthe decisionofpassiveoractive shelteringandtimely evacuation.2)Diffuse episodesofstressbecause thereisnotimeforrational thinkingandtheurgencyto takedecisionfacingmore extreme firemanifestations.3)
Stresscanbehigherifpeople areunpreparedoreventsoccur duringthedaywhenparents areatworkandchildrenareat school.Familyseparationand uncertaintyregardingthe locationandsafetyofothers increasestress.
1)Possibleoccurrenceof stressduetolackof information,weaknesses inthecontroland commandchain,andthe incapacitytocopewithall thesimultaneous fires startedbyspotting,and issueswithresource availabilityand deploymenttotackle fires. 2)Fatigueandexhaustion canbecomeriskfactors.
1)Frequentandrelevant. Strongwindmaking buildingsmorevulnerable tomechanismsof fire attack.2)Potential damagesdependingon buildingdesignandtype ofRDPsandWUI.
Heterogeneityin burningseverity pattern,withwide areasofmediumto high.
1)Likelyentrapmentand burnoverdangeraggravated byspotting.2)Sometimes reachingadesignatedsafety zoneintimemaynotbe possible.3)Relevant problemsofradiantheatwith consequentexhaustionof firefighters.4)Problemsfrom smoke.5)Fatalproblemsfrom lackofcompliancewithsafety rules.6)Fatalproblemsin caseofinappropriateor
1)Strongfeelingoffear,lossor lackofcontrol,anxiety, namelyinthecaseofroadscut offbyfast-moving firefronts orclosedbyauthorities, incapacitytocommunicate withfamily,friends,and authorities.2)Diffuseand persistentpsychologicalstress duetothe fireexperienceand consequences.3)Highstress ifpeopleareunpreparedor eventsoccurduringtheday
1)Possiblediffuseand persistentpsychological stressduetothe incapacitytocontainthe flamesspreadunder theurgencyofimmediate multipledecisions;issues withresourceavailability anddeploymenttotackle fires,andcoordination anddevolutionof responsibility,situational awarenessifevents
1)Massivespotting exacerbateslosses occurrence.2)Potential damageslikely exacerbatedbybuilding designandtypeofRDPs/ WUI.3)Strongwind makingbuildingsmore vulnerabletomechanisms of fireattack.
1)Heterogeneous severitypatterns inside fire perimeter.2) Evidenceofareas withhighburning severity.
Continued
Category
PhysicalPsychological
PeopleCrewPeopleCrew circulationfromlackofvisibility.7)
Roadaccidentsresultingfrom fallingtreesprovokedbywindsor byfastmoving firefronts.8)Lackof informationtosupportemergency decisions.9)Difficultyor impossibilityofcommunicationby failureofpowerlinesandlifelines.
missinguseofPPE.7)Road accidentsresultingfrom fallingtreesprovokedby winds.8)Extremedifficultyof communication.9)Difficulty toimpossibilityofcirculation ofterrestrialvehiclesfrom lackofvisibility.10) Difficultytoimpossibilityof aerialoperationsfromsmoke, wind,andconvectiveactivity.
whenparentsareatworkand childrenareatschool.Family separationanduncertainty regardingthelocationandthe safetyofothersincrease stress. escalateandevolve.2) Fatigueandexhaustion canbecomeriskfactors. 3)Issuesarisingfrom workingwithunfamiliar firefighterteamsor interactionbetween professionalandvolunteer firefighters.
Assets/StructuresEcosystems
61)Thesurvivalconditionsarevery extreme,butitispossibletosurvive ifadequatelyprepared.2)Difficulty to findadequateresponsefor evacuationofnonmobilepeople.3) Likelyfatalitiesincaseofescape,or outsidehousesorincaseofpassive sheltering.4)Theerraticand unpredictable firebehaviorcan precludeevacuationandmake dangerousevacuationorescape.5) Timetomakedecisionsmaybe limitedandinadequateforcarrying outanorder.6)Impossibilityof autonomousdefenseusinghoses andwaterinthecaseoflackof electricityandtheinexistenceof petrol-drivengenerators.7)Lastminuteevacuationcanconductto dramaticend.8)Roadsarelikelyto becutoffforthosewhowerelatein decidingandbyfast-moving fire fronts.9)Extremedifficultyof
1)Likelyentrapmentand burnoverdangeraggravated byspotting.2)Injuriesfrom imprudentbutgenerous attemptstocontain firespread alsoduetoprofusespotting.3) Relevantproblemsofradiant heatwithconsequent exhaustionof firefighters.4) Problemsprovokedbysmoke. 5)Fatalproblemsincaseof inappropriateormissinguse ofPPE.6)Fatalproblems fromnoncompliancewith safetyrules.7)Roadaccidents resultingfromfallingtrees provokedbywindsorbyfastmoving firefronts.8)Extreme difficultyofcommunication andcompliancewithordersof thecontrolandcommand chain.9)Difficultyto impossibilityofcirculationof
1)Decisionsaremadeunder physicalstress/sufferingdue toheatandsmoke.2)Strong feelingoffear,totallossor lackofcontrol,anxiety,affect evacuationorescape.3)Stress increasedbecauseofthe collapseofphoneandmobile communicationnetworkwith subsequentincapacityof communicatewithfamily, friends,andauthorities.4) Lackofpsychological preparednessconductingto unsafedecision-making(e.g., last-minuteevacuation)can precipitatetheoccurrenceof fatalities.5)Peoplefocuson thethreatandnotonthe choiceoftheadequate behavior.6)Diffuseand persistentpsychologicalstress evenforwell-awareandwell-
1)Diffuseandstrong persistenceofstressalso becauseofinvolvementin rescueactivitiesof victims.2)Increasing issueswithresource availabilityand deploymenttotackle fires. 3)Fatigueandexhaustion canbecomeriskfactors.
4)Issuesarisingfrom workingwithunfamiliar firefighterteamsor interactionbetween professionalandvolunteer firefighters.5) Coordinationand devolutionof responsibility,situational awarenessifevents escalateandevolve.
1)Long-distancemassive spotting.2)Potential damageslikely exacerbatedbybuilding designandtypeofRDPs andWUI.3)Wind makingbuildingsmore vulnerableto fire.
1)Heterogeneous severitypatterns inside fire perimeter.2) Medium-tolargescaleextreme burningseverity.
autonomousdefense.10)Very relevantproblemsofhealthfrom radiantheatandsmoke.11)High difficultyofcirculationfromlackof visibility.12)Lackofinformationto supportemergencydecisions.13) Impossibilityofcommunication causedbyfailureofpowerlinesand lifelines.14)Highprobabilityofcar accidentsincaseofescapeinvery difficultenvironmentalconditions. 15)Strongwindscanmaketreesfall andprovokecaraccidentsortraffic jamswithlossoflives.16)Survival outsideasheltermadeverydifficult bywindandembertransport.
71)Thesurvivalconditionsarevery extreme,butitispossibletosurvive ifadequatelyprepared.2)Difficulty to findadequateresponsefor evacuationofnonmobilepeople.3) Maximumprobabilityoffatalities andcasualtiesdirectlycausedby radiantheat,smoke,and flamesand indirectlybyescapeinverydifficult environmentalconditions.4)Lastminuteevacuationcanconductto dramaticend.5)Roadsarelikelyto becutoffbyfast-moving firefronts orbyauthoritiesfrustratinglastminuteevacuation.6)Theerratic andunpredictable firebehaviorcan precludeevacuation,makefatal escapeanddangerouspassive shelteringinplace.7)Extreme difficultyofautonomousdefense usinghosesandwaterinthecaseof lackofelectricityandthe inexistenceofpetrol-driven generators.8)Entrapmentand
vehiclesfromlackof visibility.10)Difficultyto impossibilityofaerial operationsfromsmoke,wind, andconvectiveactivity. preparedpeople,can precipitatetheoccurrenceof fatalities.7)Veryhighstressif peopleareunpreparedor eventsoccurduringtheday whenparentsareatwork, childrenareatschool.Family separationanduncertainty regardingthelocationand safetyofothersincrease stress.
1)Likelyentrapmentand burnoverdangeraggravated byspotting.2)Fastandwise decision-makingisneededbut isdifficultbecauseofpoor informationduetosmoke, otheradverseconditions.3) Relevantproblemsofradiant heatwithconsequent exhaustionof firefighters.4) Problemsfromsmoke.5) Fatalproblemsincaseof inappropriateormissinguse ofPPE.6)Fatalproblems fromnoncompliancewith safetyrules.7)Extreme difficultyofcommunication. 8)Highprobabilityoffailure incommunicationsystems andlackofinformationtotake theadequateandtimely decisions.9)Difficultyof circulationofterrestrial vehiclesfromlackof
1)Strongfeelingoffear,totalloss orlackofcontrol,andanxiety affectdecisionsmainlyfor evacuationorescape.2)Lack ofpsychologicalpreparedness conductstounsafedecisionmaking(e.g.,last-minute evacuation)facingthe extrememanifestationsof fire andcanprecipitatethe occurrenceoffatalities.3) Fearmakespeoplefocuson thethreatandnotonthe choiceoftheadequate behavior;highlevelsofstress canprecipitatetheoccurrence offatalities.4)Extreme psychologicalstressevenfor well-awareandwell-prepared people.5)Stressincreased becauseofthecollapseof phoneandmobile communicationnetworkwith subsequentincapacityof
1)Diffuseandstrong persistenceof psychologicalstress becauseofinvolvementin rescueactivitiesof victims.2)Increasing issueswithresource availabilityand deploymenttotackle fires. 3)Fatigueandexhaustion canbecomeriskfactors. 4)Issuesarisingfrom workingwithunfamiliar firefighterteamsor interactionbetween professionalandvolunteer firefighters.5) Coordinationand devolutionof responsibility,situational awarenessifevents escalateandevolve.
1)Long-distancemassive spotting.2)Potential damagesexacerbatedby buildingdesignandtype ofRDPsandWUI.3) Emberattack,andradiant heatcaninducelossof tenabilityinstructures.4) Winddamagecanrender buildingmorevulnerable to fireattack.
1)Heterogeneous severitypatterns inside fire perimeter.2) Large-scale extremeburning severity.3) Unburnedpatches canbefound.
Category
PhysicalPsychological
PeopleCrewPeopleCrew burnoverdangeraggravatedby long-distancemassivespottingand bythelossoftenabilityofthe houses.9)Lackofmonitoringof boththeinternalandexternal conditionsofbuildingscanmake difficultdecisiontomovetowardan exitashouseslosetenability.10) Strongwindsmakedifficultthe survivaloutsideoftheprotectionof ashelter.11)Strongwindscanmake treesandpowerlinesfalland provokecaraccidentsortrafficjams withlossoflives.12)Impossibility ofcommunicationcausedbyfailure ofpowerlinesandlifelines.
AdaptedfromTedimetal. [31]
visibility.10)Difficultyto impossibilityofaerial operationsfromsmoke,wind, andconvectiveactivity.
communicatewithfamily, friendsandauthorities.6) Veryhighstressifpeopleare unpreparedoreventsoccur duringthedaywhenparents areatwork,childrenareat school.Familyseparationand uncertaintyregardingthe locationandsafetyofothers increasestress.7)Issues arisingfromevacuationand possiblydealingwithshortandlong-termrelocation,and livelihoodissues.
Assets/StructuresEcosystems
