EarthquakesandSustainableInfrastructure. Neodeterministic(NDSHA)ApproachGuarantees PreventionRatherThanCureGiulianoF.Panza
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EARTHQUAKES AND SUSTAINABLE INFRASTRUCTURE NEODETERMINISTIC(NDSHA) APPROACHGUARANTEES PREVENTIONRATHER THANCURE Editedby
GIULIANO F.PANZA VLADIMIR G.KOSSOBOKOV
EFRAIM LAOR
BENEDETTO
DE VIVO Elsevier
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InmemoryandtothecentenaryofVladimirI.Keilis-Borok
VladimirIsaakovichKeilis-Borok(31.07.1921 19.10.2013)
Contributors TahmeedM.Al-Hussaini DepartmentofCivil Engineering,BangladeshUniversityofEngineering&Technology,Dhaka,Bangladesh
GiorgioAltin OrdinedegliIngegneridella ProvinciadiTrieste,Trieste,Italy
BogdanFelixApostol NationalInstitutefor EarthPhysics,Ilfov,Romania
SethN.Carpenter KentuckyGeologicalSurvey, UniversityofKentucky,Lexington,KY, UnitedStates
SudiptaChakraborty DepartmentofCivil Engineering,BangladeshUniversityofEngineering&Technology,Dhaka,Bangladesh
IshikaN.Chowdhury BUET-JIDPUS,BangladeshUniversityofEngineering&Technology, Dhaka,Bangladesh
GianPaoloCimellaro DepartmentofStructural,GeotechnicalandBuildingEngineering, PolitecnicodiTorino,Torino,Italy
CarmenOrtanzaCioflan NationalInstitutefor EarthPhysics,Ilfov,Romania
MariaRosariaCostanzo DepartmentofEarth Science,EnvironmentandGeoresources(DiSTAR),UniversityNapoliFedericoII,Napoli, Italy
MattiaCrespi GeodesyandGeomaticsDivision,DICEA,SapienzaUniversityofRome, Rome,Italy
MelissaDeIuliis DepartmentofStructural, GeotechnicalandBuildingEngineering,PolitecnicodiTorino,Torino,Italy
BenedettoDeVivo DepartmentofGeosciences, VirginiaTech,Blacksburg,VA,UnitedStates; PegasoOn-lineUniversity,Napoli,Italy; NanjingUniversity,Nanjing,Jiangsu,China; HubeiPolytechnicUniversity,Huangshi, Hubei,China
ZhifengDing InstituteofGeophysics,China EarthquakeAdministration,Beijing,China; KeyLaboratoryofEarthquakeSourcePhysics, ChinaEarthquakeAdministration,Beijing, China
ElenaDumova-Jovanoska Ss.CyrilandMethodiusUniversity,FacultyofCivilEngineering, Skopje,RepublicofNorthMacedonia
MohamedN.Elgabry NationalResearchInstituteofAstronomyandGeophysics(NRIAG), Helwan,Cairo,Egypt
LihuaFang InstituteofGeophysics,China EarthquakeAdministration,Beijing,China; KeyLaboratoryofEarthquakeSourcePhysics, ChinaEarthquakeAdministration,Beijing, China
HasanalFaysal DepartmentofCivilEngineering,BangladeshUniversityofEngineering& Technology,Dhaka,Bangladesh
ShanghuaGao InstituteofEarthquakeForecasting,ChinaEarthquakeAdministration, Beijing,China
MarianoGarcía-Fernández CSIC Museo NacionaldeCienciasNaturales,Madrid, Spain
AlexanderGorshkov InstituteofEarthquake PredictionTheoryandMathematicalGeophysics,RussianAcademyofSciences,Moscow,Russia
HanyM.Hassan NationalResearchInstituteof AstronomyandGeophysics(NRIAG),Helwan, Cairo,Egypt
HeshamHussein NationalResearchInstituteof AstronomyandGeophysics(NRIAG),Helwan, Cairo,Egypt
MaurizioIndirli ENEA,ItalianNational AgencyforNewTechnologies,Energyand
SustainableEconomicDevelopment,Bologna, Italy
IrwandiIrwandi DepartmentofPhysics,UniversitasSyiahKuala,BandaAceh,Indonesia; STEMResearchCenter(STEM.id),Universitas SyiahKuala
JunboJia AkerSolutions,Sandslimarka,Sandsli,Norway
ChangshengJiang InstituteofGeophysics, ChinaEarthquakeAdministration,Beijing, China
María-JoséJiménez CSIC MuseoNacionalde CienciasNaturales,Madrid,Spain
Jens-UweKlügel InternationalSeismicSafety Organization,ISSO,Arsita,Italy;NPPGoesgen,Goesgen,Switzerland
VladimirKossobokov InstituteofEarthquake PredictionTheoryandMathematicalGeophysics,RussianAcademyofSciences,Moscow,Russia;InternationalSeismicSafety Organization,ISSO,Arsita,Italy
MihaelaKouteva-Guentcheva NationalEarthquakeEngineeringCenter Universityof Architecture,CivilEngineeringandGeodesy (NEEC-UACEG),Sofia,Bulgaria
EfraimLaor NationalResearchInstitutefor DisasterReduction,HolonInstituteofTechnology,HIT,Holon,Israel
AndreaMagrin NationalInstituteofOceanographyandAppliedGeophysics OGS, Trieste,Italy
ElenaFlorinelaManea NationalInstitutefor EarthPhysics,Ilfov,Romania
SebastianoMarasco DepartmentofStructural, GeotechnicalandBuildingEngineering,PolitecnicodiTorino,Torino,Italy
SokolMarku MarineGeology,AlbanianGeologicalSurvey,Tirana,Albania
KristinaMilkova Ss.CyrilandMethodius University,FacultyofCivilEngineering, Skopje,RepublicofNorthMacedonia
LallianaMualchin CaliforniaDepartmentof Transportation(Caltrans),Placerville,CA, UnitedStates;InternationalSeismicSafety Organization,ISSO,Arsita,Italy
ConcettinaNunziata DepartmentofEarthScience,EnvironmentandGeoresources(DiSTAR),UniversityNapoliFedericoII,Napoli, Italy
RapoOrmeni DepartmentofSeismology, InstituteofGeosciences,WatersandEnvironment,Tirana,Albania
GiulianoF.Panza AccademiaNazionaledei Lincei,Rome,Italy;InstituteofGeophysics, ChinaEarthquakeAdministration,Beijing, China;AccademiaNazionaledelleScienze dettadeiXL,Rome,Italy;InternationalSeismic SafetyOrganization,ISSO,Arsita,Italy;Beijing UniversityofCivilEngineeringandArchitecture,Beijing,China
ImtiyazA.Parvez CSIRFourthParadigm Institute(formerlyCSIRC-MMACS),NAL BelurCampus,Bangalore,Karnataka,India
IvankaPaskaleva EPU,Pernik,Bulgaria
AntonellaPeresan InternationalSeismicSafety Organization,ISSO,Arsita,Italy;National InstituteofOceanographyandExperimental Geophysics,OGS,SeismologicalResearch Center,Udine,Italy
HabibRahimi DepartmentofSeismology, InstituteofGeophysics,UniversityofTehran, Tehran,Iran
MehdiRastgoo DepartmentofSeismology, InstituteofGeophysics,UniversityofTehran, Tehran,Iran
GiuseppeRolandi UniversityNapoliFederico II,Napoli,Italy
FabioRomanelli DepartmentofMathematics andGeosciences,UniversityofTrieste,Trieste, Italy;InstituteofEarthquakeForecasting, ChinaEarthquakeAdministration,Beijing, China
LeontinaRomashkova InstituteofEarthquake PredictionTheoryandMathematicalGeophysics,RussianAcademyofSciences,Moscow,RussianFederation
PaoloRugarli CastaliaSrl,Milan,Italy
FarhanaSarwar FederalGovernmentGirls DegreeCollegeQuettaCantt,FGEI(C/G), Rawalpindi,Balochistan,Pakistan
AlexanderSoloviev InstituteofEarthquake PredictionTheoryandMathematicalGeophysics,RussianAcademyofSciences,Moscow,RussianFederation
FrancoVaccari DepartmentofMathematicsand Geosciences,UniversityofTrieste,Trieste,Italy
ZhenmingWang KentuckyGeologicalSurvey, UniversityofKentucky,Lexington,KY,United States
EdwardW.Woolery DepartmentofEarthand EnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofKentucky,Lexington,KY,UnitedStates
ZhongliangWu InstituteofEarthquakeForecasting,ChinaEarthquakeAdministration, Beijing,China
YanZhang InstituteofGeophysics,China EarthquakeAdministration,Beijing,China
Abouttheeditors GiulianoF.Panza isformerFullProfessor ofGeophysics,TriesteUniversity,Head SANDGroupAbdusSalamICTPTrieste, co-fundedwithAcademicianVladimir Keilis-Borok;Dr.H.C.BucharestUniversity; EmeritusHonoraryProfessoratIGG-CEA, andHonoraryProfessoratBUCEA,China. Mr.ZhaoMing,DeputyDirectorCEA ofDepartmentInternationalCooperation welcomedhimasMarcoPoloinSeismology. HeisamemberofAccademiaNazionaledei Lincei,AccademiaNazionaledelleScienze dettadeiXL,AcademiaEuropaea,Russian AcademyofSciences,TWASAcademy,and arecipientoftheEGUBenoGutenberg medal,AGUInternationalaward,Premio LinceoANL,CentralEuropeanInitiative MedalofHonour,CommemorativeMedal VAST,MedalofHonorNRIAGEgypt; fifth Class/Knight-OMRIforveryhighscienti fic merits,andiswidelyrecognizedforhislinks tofundamentalresultsingeophysicswith implicationsofgreatinterestforthecommunity.In2009,hedeliveredtheLectio MagistralisopeningTriesteUniversityAcademicyear,attendedbyChamberofDeputiesPresident.Hisresearchinterestsinclude earthquakepredictionandhazards,and geodynamics,andhehasanh-index(Scopus,2021)of47.
VladimirKossobokov isPastVicePresidentoftheIUGGCommissionof GeophysicalRiskandSustainabilitywithan MSinMathematics,DepartmentofMechanicsandMathematics,MoscowState Universitygainedin1975.Monthsbefore
graduationhejoinedVladimirKeilis-Borok (atthattimeProfessoratInstituteof PhysicsoftheEarth,USSRAcademyof Sciences)toworkonpatternrecognition ofearthquake-proneareas.Theirfruitful collaborationlastedfordecades.Professor Kossobokovhasplayedapioneeringrolein designandtestingreproduciblemethodsfor earthquakeprediction,hazards,andrisks assessmentbasedonglobalandregional geophysicaldatabasesthroughexploratory dataanalysis,patternrecognition,and appliedmathematicalstatistics.HisfundamentalcontributionshaveledtoformulationoftheUnifi edScalingLawfor Earthquakes,tothelaunchin1992oftheongoingreal-timeintermediate-termearthquakepredictionexperimentthateventually con firmed(withastatisticalcon fidence above99%)thepredictabilityoftheworld’ s largestearthquakes,aswellastobetter understandingofclimatesinEuropeand solar terrestrialinteractions.
EfraimLaor hasaPhDin “Policy,StrategyandAdministrationofLargeScale EmergencySituations,” (DisasterManagement)fromKing’sCollegeLondon.
Hisworkhasencompassedshort-and long-termstrategic,operative,andtactical planning,asamemberofthink-tankteams, whichhaveformulatedconceptionsfor the “ EmergenciesandBattle fi eldofthe Future.”
Hehasagreatdealofoperationalexperience,includingasCOoftheseventh ArmoredBrigade,IDF.
Hehasbeeninvolvedinnumeroussearch andrescue,reliefandreconstructionmissionsinIsraelandabroad,includingresponsestoandrecoveryfromearthquakes, tsunamis, floods,typhoons,cyclones, fires, NaTech,HoTech,pandemics,nucleardisasters,andcivilstrife.
Hehasbeenaninvitedlecturerandkeynotespeakeratnumerousconferences,seminars,andtrainingevents.
HeisalsotheHeadandaLectureratthe “GeographyofDisasterAreas,” Mastersand PhDProgram,UniversityofHaifa,and theChiefScientistatAFRAN National ResearchInstituteforDisasterReduction, HIT.
HeistheFormerChairman,GoINational SteeringCommitteeforDisasterReduction, CEOofthe “FastIsraeliRescueandSearch Team[F.I.R.S.T.],” (12units;7600SARcallouts),andateammemberoftheUnited NationsDisasterAssessmentandCoordination(UNDAC).
BenedettoDeVivo iscurrentlyFullProfessorofExplorationandEnvironmental
GeochemistryatPegasoOnlineUniversity, Napoli,Italy;AdjunctProfessoratVirginia Tech,Blacksburg,VA,USA(since2006); NanjingUniversity,Nanjing,China(since 2016);HubeiPolytechnicUniversity,Huangshi,China(since2019);andretiredfrom UniversityNapoliFedericoII.Hehasan h-indexof50(GoogleScholar)and44 (ElsevierScopus/Mendeley).Heisalsothe recipientofthe 2019GoldMedalAwardof theAssociationofAppliedGeochemists for outstandingscientificcontributions/achievementsinappliedgeochemistry;Fellowofthe MineralogicalSocietyofAmericaandAssoc Appl.Geochemists.HehasbeenChairmanof theWorkingGroup “InclusionsinMinerals” oftheInternationalMineralogicalAssociation;ChiefEditor(2007 16)of J.Geoch. Explor. (Elsevier)and Geochemistry-Expl-EnvAnalysis (2017 18).Hisresearchinterests include fluidandmeltinclusionstudies, volcanology,explorationandenvironmental geochemistry,andhealth.Hehaspublished 350papers,15thematicbooks(Elsevierand EOLSS/UNESCO),33monographs,and seventextbooks(inItalian).
Preface Ifyouarerightandyouknowit,speakyour mind.Speakyourmindevenifyouareaminority ofone.Thetruthisstillthetruth. Mohandas Gandhi
Thebook “EarthquakesandSustainable Infrastructure:Neo-Deterministic(NDSHA) ApproachGuaranteesPreventionRatherThan Cure” aimstocommunicateinonevolume the “state-of-the-art” scienti ficknowledgeon earthquakesandrelatedseismicrisks. Earthquakesoccurinaseeminglyrandom wayandinsomecasesitispossibletotrace seismicitybacktotheconceptofdeterministicchaos.Therefore,seismicity,apparently, canbeexplainedbyadeterministicmechanismthatarisesasaresultofvariousconvectionmovementsintheEarth’smantle, expressedinthemodernmovementoflithosphericplatesfueledbytidalforces.The polarizedplatetectonicsandthecomplex natureofseismicphenomenahighlightthe needtoavoidtheuseofoverlysimplistic models,particularlyfortheassessmentofthe risksassociatedwithearthquakes.Ina perspectiveofprevention,coherentand compatiblewiththemostadvancedtheories, itisessentialthatatleasttheinfrastructure installationsandpublicstructuresare designedsoastoresist(orsustain)future strongearthquakesandcontinuetooperate intheiroriginalcapacity.Anearthquake compatiblewiththeseismogeniccharacteristicsofacertainarea,evenifsporadicand thereforelabeledas “unlikely,” canoccurat anytime.
Whenanearthquakeoccurswithagiven magnitudeM,thesamegeneratesaseismic motionofthesoilthatcertainlydoesnot dependonitssporadicityinthestudyarea.In thisperspective,theanti-seismicdesignparametersmusttakeintoaccountthemagnitudevaluesdefinedaccordingtotheseismic historyandseismotectonics,asrequired bytheNeo-DeterministicSeismicHazard Assessment(NDSHA)approach,ratherthan beingreducedorincreaseddependingonthe greaterorlesserearthquakesporadicity,as foreseenbysomepeople,adoptingtheprobabilisticapproach(ProbabilisticSeismic HazardAssessment[PSHA]).
Consequently,tomovefromaperspective focusedonresponsetoemergenciestoa newperspectivebasedonpreventionand sustainability,itisnecessarytofollowthe neo-deterministicapproach(NDSHA)to guaranteepreventionandhencesavinghumanlives.
NDSHAdatesbacktotheturnofmillennium.Itisthesecondmillenniumscenarioandphysics-basedmultidisciplinaryapproach fortheevaluationofseismichazard,proven reliableby20yearsofexperimentsinmany countriesworldwide.Scenario-basedSeismic HazardAnalysis(SSHA)andMaximum CredibleSeismicInput(MCSI)arewellestablishedmethods,whicharepartof NDSHAevaluation.
Itshouldbeemphasizedtheimportance ofthevalidityofoneofthebasicprinciples ofgeology firstsuggestedbyJamesHutton
in TheoryoftheEarth publishedin1795.The principledictatesthatthegeologicalor physicalphenomenathatoperatenowhave alwaysactedwiththesameintensityinthe pastgeologicaltimes,andwhathappenedin thepastmayhappeninthepresentandwill happeninthefuture,withacaveattoward theconceptof “returnperiod.” Inother words,whathappenedinthepastcan happen,butfromtimetotimeinthepresent andinthefuture.
Notingthe fluctuationinspeci fieddesign valuesthatoccursfromcodeeditiontocode edition,structuralengineershaveexpressed disbeliefinthevalidityofthescienceupon whichthemapsarebasedanddissatisfaction withtheever-changingdesignrequirements forbuildings.Furthermore,asthedefinition ofthemapshasbecomemorecomplex,designershavelostanunderstandingofthe intentofthemapsandwhattheyrepresent. Importantly,themapsportrayprecisionin thedesignvaluesthatisinappropriate,given thesubstantialuncertaintyinthevalues portrayed.Thelegislationhenceshouldbe basedonNDSHAapproach,abletoovercomemostof,ifnotall,theobviouslimitationsandseriousmisconceptionsofother prevailingapproaches.
Inthefollowing,wesupplyaseriesof papersthatreviewsandupdatesthe NDSHAresearchandtheresultsobtainedso farinAfrica,America,Asia,andEurope,a collectionofevidencesthathopefullywill induceresponsiblepeopleandauthoritiesto considermorereliableproceduresforSHA evaluation.
In Chapter1,VladimirKossobokov(Hazard,Risks,andPrediction)introducesthestateof-theartapproachesaimedatreductionof disasterrisksdemonstratingthatalthough sciencecannotremove,yet,people’signoranceandfavorforillusionregardingreality,it candeliverreliableoperationalrecommendationsonthelevelofnaturalrisksfordecision-
makinginregardtoengineeringdesign,insurance,andemergencymanagement.The sourceofwidespreadscientificcrisisliesin misuseofscience,likeinprobabilisticseismic hazardanalysesevidentlymisleadingtounacceptablelevelsofdisaster.Onthecontrary, theneo-deterministicapproachappearstoset aninnovativestandardforReliableSeismic HazardAssessment.
In Chapter2,Jens-UweKlugel(Seismic hazardassessmentfromtheperspectiveof disasterprevention PartI:requirementsand stateoftheart;PartII:procedureandpractical example)concludes,afteranalyzingthekey characteristics,possiblestrengthsandlimitationsofdeterministicandprobabilistic approaches,includingthelatestdevelopmentsofbothmethodologies,NDSHA andPSHA,thatonlythedeterministic methodologyprovidesarobustand flexible enoughbasisforthedevelopmentofa disasterresilientdesignforcriticalinfrastructures(PartI)andoutlinestheprocedureforseismichazardassessment(SHA) forthedevelopmentofdisasterresilient designofcriticalinfrastructuresandlifelines (PartII).Thekeyelementofthismethodologyisdevelopmentofadamage-consistent seismichazardusing(i)siteintensityasthe leadingseismichazardparameterand(ii) NDSHAapproachtoseismichazardanalysis toachievetherequireddisasterresilience. Theprocedureincludestheincorporationof asafetyfactorwhichisbasedonthepredictionofanupperboundoftheenergy contentofthenextrecordstrongearthquake todeveloptheensembleofcascadingtime histories.Thehazardresultscanbeapplied inagraded,performance-basedapproachfor thedesignofcriticalinfrastructures.The applicationofthemethodologyforreassessmentoftheseismicdesignbasisofa nuclearpowerplantispresented.
In Chapter3,PaoloRugarli(TheViewofa StructuralEngineeraboutReliableSeismic
HazardAssessment)showsthatthepolicyto seismicdesignofthelast40yearsneeds upgrading:civilengineersmustbeaware thattheuseofPSHAmayresultinthe designofunsafebuildings.Thiskeyissuefor structuralengineersinvolvedinthedevelopmentofreliablestructuralanalysissoftware,tryingtoavoidthespreadingof misleadingresults,requiresagreatchangein seismichazardevaluation.Alltheimportant resultsinseismichazardassessmentreached inthelast30yearsorso,NDSHAevaluation, mustbeconsideredinthenextversionsof thestandardsandexplicitlytakenasreferenceapproach.
In Chapter4,EfraimLaorandBenedetto DeVivo(DisasterPredictionandCivilPreparedness)discussthepotentialroleof NDSHAinthepreparedness,mitigation,and managementofearthquakedisasters.The authorshighlighttheimportanceofNDSHA approachintheparadigmshiftfromdisaster reductiontoreductionofdisasterrisk, whichshouldchangethecommunity mainstreamunderstandingofsustainable infrastructure.
In Chapter5,MattiaCrespi,Vladimir Kossobokov,AntonellaPeresan,andGiulianoF.Panza(TheIntegrationbetweenSeismologyandGeodesyforIntermediate-Term Narrow-RangeEarthquakePredictionaccording toNDSHA)argumentthatearthquakes cannotbepredictedwithultimateprecision, sothattheprogressivereductionofthepredictionuncertaintyinspaceandtimeisan evergreentask,bothfromthescientificpoint ofviewfortheintrinsiccomplexityof seismicphenomenonandforitshighsocietal relevance.Tothisaim,well-testedalgorithmsexist(CN,M8,andM8S)for intermediate-termmiddle-rangeprediction. Theauthorsreviewthefundamentalideasof anintegratedapproachbasedonthesynergy ofhigh-densitygeodeticobservations(GNSS andSAR)andseismologicalinformation,
abletoachievetheintermediate-term narrow-rangeearthquakeprediction.
In Chapter6,AlexanderSoloviev(Modellingtheblock-and-faultstructuredynamicswith applicationtostudyingseismicityandgeodynamics)overviewsmodelingofthelithosphereblockstructuredynamics.Theseismic regioninthemechanicalmodelisconsidered tobeastructureofperfectlyrigidblocks, separatedbyinfinitelythin flatfaults,where deformationsandstressesarise,causing earthquakes.Theresultsobtainedby numericallysimulatingthedynamicsof variousblockstructures,includingthosethat approximatetheEarthspecificseismicregions,showthatthemodelisausefultool forstudyingtheeffectoffaultgeometryand blockmovementsonseismicityproperties.
In Chapter7,AlexanderGorshkovand AlexanderSoloviev(Morphostructuralzoning foridentifyingearthquake-proneareas)examine informationonpotentialearthquakesources asakeystartingissueforseismichazard assessment.Theypresentaphenomenologicalapproachforidentifyingpossiblelocationsofstrongearthquakesandits applicationfortheItalianregion.Themethodologyhypothesizesthenucleationof strongearthquakesatmorphostructural nodesformedattheintersectionsoflineamentsdetectedbyformalizedmorphostructuralzoning.Patternrecognitiontechniques pinpointearthquake-pronenodesbasedona widesetofgeophysicalandgeologicaldata characterizingnodes.
In Chapter8,AntonellaPeresanand LeontinaRomashkova(Earthquakeforecasting andtime-dependentNeo-DeterministicSeismic HazardAssessmentinItalyandsurroundings) prescribeanoperationalprocedurefortimedependentseismichazardassessmentthat hasbeendevelopedandintegrates intermediate-termmiddle-rangeearthquake forecastsfrompatternrecognitionanalysis (byCNandM8Salgorithms)withthe
scenario-basedNDSHA.Theauthorsprovideareviewoftheresultsfromrigorous prospectivetestingoftheintegratedprocedure,whichisongoingfortheItalianterritorysince2006.Theresultsobtainedsofar, includinganalysisofthestatisticalsignificanceofissuedforecasts,supportreliability ofthetime-dependentscenariosassociated withCNpredictions.
In Chapter9,FabioRomanelli,Giorgio Altin,andMaurizioIndirli(Spreading NDSHAApplicationfromItalytootherAreas) provideanin-depthdiscussionofthe NDSHAapplicationtothecitiesofRome, Valparaiso,andTriesteillustratingthe existingpossibilitiesforalocalscaleanalysis ofearthquakehazardandassociatedrisks.
In Chapter10,MariaRosariaCostanzo andConcettinaNunziata(S-wavevelocity profilingforsiteresponseevaluationinurban area)discussaverageone-dimensionalshear wavevelocitymodelsobtainedinthe denselyurbanizedcityofNapoli(Italy), throughfrequency-timeanalysisandnonlinearinversionmethodsappliedtocrosscorrelationofsynchronousambientnoise recordingsattwosites.Thecomparisonof thespectralamplificationscomputedalonga sectioninthehistoricalcenter,forthe1980 earthquake(MW6.8),withellipticityand H/Vspectralratios,atspeci ficsites,evidencesthekeyroleofsoundseismostratigraphies.
In Chapter11,FrancoVaccariandAndrea Magrin(AUser-friendlyApproachtoNDSHA Computations)describetheweb-basedsoftwareXeRiSthatallowstogeneratea comprehensivesuiteofrealisticgroundmotionparametersforascenarioearthquake modelingwithdifferentlevelofdetail.XeRiS isapowerfultoolusefulforbothgeophysical andearthquakeengineeringcommunity.
In Chapter12,MohamedElGabry,Hani Hassan,andHeshamHussein(RecentApplicationsofNDSHA:SeismicInputforHighRise
BuildingsinEgyptNewCapital)makeareviewandupdateofthelocalandregional seismicsourcesthatmayaffecttheCentral BusinessDistrict(CBD)projectsite.Both localanddistantearthquakeshavebeen incorporatedtoproduceNDSHAsynthetic seismograms(displacement,velocity,and acceleration)andspectralaccelerationstobe usedbythestructuraldesigners.TheestimatedNDSHAPGAmedianvalue(50th percentile)isabout0.16g,whichiscomparableto0.15gPGAoftheEgyptianbuilding codeforthezonewheretheCBDislocated, butthe84thand95thpercentileestimated NDSHAPGAreach0.23and0.28g, respectively.
In Chapter13,GianPaoloCimellaro, MelissaDeIuliis,andSebastianoMarasco (Neo-deterministicmethodtoassesstheseismic performanceofwaterdistributionnetworks) investigatetheservicefailuresofwaterdistributionnetworks(WDNs)duetonatural andman-madehazardsthatmayincurconsequencestopublichealth,economicsecurity,andsocialwelfare.Theyproposea resilienceindex(R)ofaWDNastheproduct ofthreeindices:(1)thenumberofusers temporarilywithoutwater,(2)thewater levelinthetank,and(3)thewaterquality. Todemonstratetheapplicabilityofthe methodology,differentdisruptivescenarios havebeenimplementedinasmalltownin southernItaly.
In Chapter14,LallianaMualchin(Seismic HazardAnalysisinaHistoricalContext:ExperienceatCaltransandElsewhere)recallshis vividpersonalexperienceabouthowprobabilistichazardassessmentapproachhad beenstartedinCaliforniaandwasexported outallovertheworldandhowdifficultit wastopassthroughtheoppositionsto applyingdeterministicMaximumCredible Earthquake(MCE)approachinpreparing twicethestateseismichazardmapof California.
In Chapter15,BenedettoDeVivo,Efraim Laor,andGiuseppeRolandi(WhereThere’ s NoScience-ProbabilisticHazardAssessmentin VolcanologicalandNuclearWasteSettings: Facts,NeedsandChallengesinItaly)givereasonsforpoordecisionsinhazardassessmentsforvolcanologicalandnuclearwaste settingsinItalyasthefailureofproviding scienti ficallycorrectrecommendations.Italianscientistsoftenofferrecommendations basedonprobabilisticassessmentstomeet thepoliticaldemandsratherthanoppose thosecontradictingscienti ficandethical grounds.Thearticledisclosesthismalpracticeconcerningthelargestcivilhospitalin southernItalyontheslopeofMt.Vesuvius, activevolcano,andplanningthesiteof radioactivewastedisposalnearthetownof ScanzanoJonicoinBasilicata.Theauthors suggestexpandingthebasicprinciplesof NDSHAtoreliableestimationsofothernaturalhazardsandmitigationofassociated risks.
In Chapter16,JunboJia(SeismicHazard andEarthquakeEngineeringforEngineering Community)discussestheemergingtopicof offshoreearthquakeengineering.Earthquakesandtsunamishavegreatpotentialto causedamagetooffshoreinfrastructuresand requiretheduedevelopmentofearthquake detection,description,andevaluationtechnologytoobtainearthquakeresistantforms andtechniquesofconstructionforoffshore platforms,offshorebridges,oilandgas explorationprojects,andtheprovisionof basicmaterialandtheoreticalsupportfor furtherimprovementofspecificationsand standards.NDSHAsuppliesreliablehazard estimationforengineeringapplicationsand implementationindesigncodesandstandardsuitablefortheprotectionofoffshore infrastructuresaswell.
In Chapter17,ZhenmingWang,Seth Carpenter,andEdwardWoolery(ScenariobasedSeismicHazardAnalysisandIts
ApplicationsintheCentralUnitedStates) appliedScenarioSeismicHazardAnalysis (SSHA),apartofNDSHA,toderiveseismic hazardsinthecentralUnitedStates,Kentuckyinparticular,andfacedthechallenge causedbythelargeuncertaintiesinearthquakelocations,magnitudes,occurrence rate,andgroundmotions,whichinturnled tolargenumericaluncertaintyinprobabilisticgroundmotionhazardestimateand makescommunicating,understanding,and usingthehazardmapsforthecentralUnited Statesdifficult.TheSSHAhazardinformationhasbeenusedforengineeringdesign andevaluationofbridgesandhighwayfacilities,aswellasothersafetyconsiderations inthecentralUnitedStates.
In Chapter18,MihaelaKoutevaGuentcheva,CarmenCio flan,IvankaPaskaleva,andGiulianoF.Panza(NDSHA AchievementsinCentralandSouth-Eastern Europe)provideasummarizingoverviewof theup-to-dateachievementsofthemultiaspectpoweroftheNDSHA,supportedby numerousapplications.Theauthorspoint outtothemajoradvantagetoinvolveinthe estimatesofthesiteresponseallfactors controllingthegroundmotion(seismicmechanicalfeaturesofthepropagatingmediaandtheseismicsource)andrecommend usingNDSHAforengineeringdesign,but, whenPSHAisrequiredbasedonnational regulations,tocomparetheresults/output ofPSHAwiththatofphysicsscenario-based analysisofNDSHA.
In Chapter19,ConcettinaNunziataand MariaRosariaCostanzo(Applicationof NDSHAtoHistoricalUrbanAreas)presentthe NDSHAsimulationofthetelluricmotionfor twourbanareas,heavilydamagedbyrecent andhistoricalearthquakes:PoggioPicenze, fortheApril6,2009(MW6.3)event,and Napoli,forthe1980(MW6.8)andforthe strongesthistorical1456and1688earthquakes.Consistencyexistsbetween
computedgroundaccelerationsandintensitydata(IMCS)ifweattributeMW6.6to 1688and6.9to1456earthquakes,respectively.Iftheliteraturemagnitudesare considered,highervaluesofthetelluric motionareexpectedforearthquakeslikethe 1688withmagnitude7andthe1456with magnitude7.3,tobeconsideredconservative scenarioearthquakes.
In Chapter20,CarmenOrtanzaCioflan, ElenaFlorinelaManea,andBogdanFelix Apostol(InsightsfromNeo-Deterministic SeismicHazardAnalysesinRomania)provide areviewofstate-of-the-artstudiesofseismic hazardwithemphasisonthecomplex physics-basedwaveformmodelingforthe territoryofRomania.Inthecontextof theVranceaintermediate-depthseismicity, theinnovativeNDSHAhasprovedtobe veryef ficientatnationalandlocalscales realisticallyreproducingthemacro-seismic, aswellasthelocalsiteamplificationforthe cityofBucharest.
In Chapter21,MihaelaKoutevaGuentcheva,IvankaPaskaleva,andGiuliano F.Panza(NDSHAinBulgaria)applyNDSHA totheBulgarianterritory,exposedtohigh seismicriskfromlocalshallowandregional intermediate-depthearthquakes.Structural engineeringneedsalternativerepresentation oftheseismicloadingviaaccelerograms.The availablestrongmotiondatabaseisnot representativeoftherealhazardand NDSHAevaluationsuppliesdatabasesof realisticsyntheticseismogramsreadily applicableforearthquakeengineeringpurposes.Thecomparisonbetweentheresults derivedfromtherealdatabankandtheresultsobtainedfromthesyntheticdatabase compiledusingNDSHAisfullysatisfactory fordisplacementsandcornerperiods.
In Chapter22,ElenaDumova-Jovanoska andKristinaMilkova(NDSHA-basedvulnerabilityevaluationofpre-codebuildingsinRepublicofNorthMacedonia;novelexperiences)
provideamethodologyforseismicvulnerabilityevaluationofexistingprecodestructures,usingamultidisciplinaryapproach.As aresult,region-specificvulnerabilityand reliabilitycurvesthatrelatethepeakground accelerationvaluestotheprobabilityofexceedanceofacertaindamagestatehavebeen presented.Theresultshighlighttheadvantageofusingsite-specificNDSHAresponse spectraasseismicinput,asthedamage reportsfromearthquakesthatstruckOhrid in2017haveconfirmedthemeritsofthe appliedapproach.
In Chapter23,SokolMarku,Rapo Ormeni,andGiulianoF.Panza(Seismic characterizationofTirana-Durrës-Lezharegion(northwesternAlbania)andanalysiseffort throughNDSHAmethod)aimtosuggestthe mostadvancedandreliablewayofassessing regionalseismichazardandrisks.The strongestseismiceventsthatstruckAlbania haveoccurredintoanareaextendedbetweenShkumbiniRiverandcityofShkodra. Theregionisknownasoneofthemost activeseismogeniczonesinAlbaniaandis locatedbetweensomeofthemostimportant seismogeniclineamentsofthecountry. ComparingPSHAandNDSHAresultswith 2019groundmotionvaluesprovesthat NDSHAisamorereliablemethod.
In Chapter24,MarianoGarcía-Fernández, FrancoVaccari,María-JoséJiménez,Andrea Magrin,FabioRomanelli,andGiuliano F.Panza(RegionalapplicationoftheNDSHA approachforcontinentalseismogenicsourcesin theIberianPeninsula)applytwocombined seismogenicsourcemodels:polygonalzones andnodesobtainedbymorphostructural analysis.Hazardmapsofmaximumground displacement,Dmax,andmaximumground velocity,Vmax,uptoamaximumfrequency of1Hz,anddesigngroundacceleration, DGA,areproduced.NDSHAresultsshow largestDmaxvaluesincentral-western PortugalandsimilarhighVmaxbothinthe
westandintheeastoftheIberianPeninsula. DGAreachesitshighestvaluesincentralwesternPortugalandineasternSpain.
In Chapter25,YanZhang,LihuaFang, FabioRomanelli,ZhifengDing,Shanghua Gao,ChangshengJiang,andZhongliangWu (NDSHAAppliedtoChina)analyzetheactivitiesofChineseseismologiststoreduce damagefromearthquakes,inparticular,new approachestoearthquakeforecast/prediction.Theauthorsdescribeindetailthe applicationofNDSHAapproachtotheterritoryofChinaandtheimportantroleof cooperationwithItalianscientists,thefoundersoftheNDSHAapproach.Theresults obtainedinabouttwodecades,aswellasthe prospectsforfurtherresearchareofundoubtedinterestforspecialistsinthe fieldof seismichazardandriskassessment.
In Chapter26,ImtiyazParvez(Application ofNeo-DeterministicSeismicHazardAssessmenttoIndia)suppliesacomprehensive validationofNDSHAinIndiaandneighboringregionatnational,regional,andlocal scales.Thepre-disastermitigationeffort basedonNDSHAmaydriveseismicand civilengineerswhowishtoundertake detailedstudiesofearthquakehazard,especiallyintheeasternHimalayanregion, easternandwesternIndia,andsomebig citiessuchasDelhiandKolkata.NDSHA evaluationsuppliesnowapreventivetool thatcanbeused,withouthavingtowaitfor thenextgreatearthquakestooccur,forthe safedesignofbuildingsandotherinfrastructureinthecountry.
In Chapter27,FarhanaSarwar,Franco Vaccari,andAndreaMagrin(NeoDeterministicSeismicHazardAssessmentfor Pakistan)discussthepreliminaryregional seismichazardmapforPakistanand adjoiningregionspublishedin2018.The authorsupdatetheseismichazardassessmentforPakistanbyusinganewearthquake catalogandthelatestcomputercodesforthe
NDSHAevaluation.ThecomparisonbetweenprobabilisticPSHAandNDSHA mapsforPakistanshowsthatthecurrently adoptedPSHAmapsgenerallyunderestimatethelevelofgroundshakingthatmight beexpectedforfutureevents.
In Chapter28,TahmeedM.Al-Hussaini, IshikaN.Chowdhury,HasanalFaysal, SudiptaChakraborty,FrancoVaccari,Fabio Romanelli,andAndreaMagrin(NeoDeterministicSeismicHazardAssessment StudiesforBangladesh)investigatethecomplex regionaltectonicenvironmentandlimited informationonseismicsourcesandfault zones,underongoingcollaborationbetween UniversityofTriesteandBangladeshUniversityofEngineeringandTechnology. Variousscenariocomputations,including NDSHA-MCSI,havebeenperformedfor Bangladesh.Resultsindicatehigherseismic hazardthantheBNBC-2020codeprovisions forthemajorcitiesofSylhetandChittagong, whichwarrantsmoreextensivesourcespeci ficstudiesoftheimpactofmajor earthquakesonknownfaults,forwhich NDSHA-MCSIiswellsuited.
In Chapter29,HabibRahimiandMehdi Rastgoo(ApplicationofNDSHAatRegional andLocalScalesinIran)describeNDSHAfor AlborzregioninthenorthofIran,including thetwovalidationtestsatlocalscaleperformedforthecityofTehran.Thevalidation testsshowthatthehybridtechnique,which combinesmodalsummationand finitedifferencemethods,canbeusedforcomputationoftheaccelerationresponsespectra alongthetwo-dimensionalsedimentstructureofthecityanddifferentearthquake scenarioswithsourcesontheactivefaults aroundTehran.
In Chapter30,IrwandiIrwandi(ApplicationofNeo-DeterministicSeismicHazard AnalysistoSumatra)analyzesearthquake hazardinIndonesiaattwodifferentscales: theregionalscaleofSumatraIslandandthe
localscaleofBandaAcehcity.TheNDSHA regionalandmicrozonationmapsbasedon theavailableinformationontheEarth’ s structure,seismicsources,andthelevelof seismicityoftheinvestigatedarearepresent amilestoneforReliableSeismicHazard AssessmentthroughoutIndonesia,acountry exposedtoextremeearthquakerisks.
Evidently,theNDSHAapplications outscorethewidespreadPSHAbytaking advantageofasynergybetweento-date availablePatternRecognitionofEarthquake ProneAreas(PREPA),Intermediate-Term EarthquakePrediction(ITEP)ofdifferent spatialaccuracy,Scenario-basedSeismic HazardAnalysis(SSHA),UnifiedScaling LawforEarthquakes(USLE)thataccounts forfractaldistributionofseismicoccurrence, andGeodeticDataAnalysis(GDA)ofGPS, GSSN,andotherdeterminations.
ThesynergyofPREPA USLE ITEP GDA MCSI SSHAappliestoapretty widespectrumofgeophysicalobservables andallowsustodeliveruser-speci fic NDSHAproducts,whicharetestedtobe reliable,realistic,andusefulevaluationand mappingofapparentlytime-dependent seismichazardandassociatedrisks.Of course,althougheachmemberofthesynergyisrelevantinseismichazardassessment (indifferentterms),itisMCSI SSHAthat providesaquantitativeoutputofseismic inputforthestructuralengineercommunity atthe finalstageofNDSHA.
NDSHAevaluationaimsatminimizing theeffectofpossiblebaddatamassaging. Therefore,thegeneralenvelopingphilosophydevelopedandappliedwithinNDSHA evaluationshouldbesystematically extendedtoothertypesofhazardssuchas volcaniceruptions,landslides,wildfires, floods,hurricanes,andotherdangerous happenings,toprovidemostreliableinput forassessingassociatedrisks.
Webelievethatperhapsacommenton theuseofintermediatevaluesinanymacroseismicintensityscaleisimportantand probablywarrantedhere,becausetheyhave causedseveraldrawbackswhentheyhave beensubsequentlyusedtoderivequantified estimatesofhazardandseismicdesignparameters.Anyintensityscaleisdefinedas “AsequenceofNaturalOrdinalNumbers, i.e.,ascaleinwhicheachnumbertellsthe positionofsomethinginadiscretescaleof integers,suchasI,II,III,IV,V,etc.” Within ourcombinedexperience,wecannotlocate anyproblemforwhichtheartifactofintroducingnon-integerintensityvaluesisbotha solutionandanadvantage.Theillusionof highprecisiondoeslittletoimproveaccuracyinthe finalproductresultingfromusing thispre-instrumentalsystemforrecording thesizesofearthquakesaswitnessedby theireffects.Accuracy,webelieve,hasmore todowithbothaknowledge-basedconsiderationandacomprehensiveintegrationof alltheotherjudgmentsthathavetobemade.
ThedeclaredlegacyoftheGlobalSeismic HazardAssessmentProgram(GSHAP)isto establishacommonframeworktoevaluate theseismichazardovergeographicallarge scales,i.e.,countries,regions,continents,and finallytheglobe.Itsmainproduct,theglobal seismichazardmap,wasmeanttobea milestone,uniqueatthattimeandtoserveas themainPSHAreferenceworldwide.Today, formostoftheEarth’sseismicallyactiveregionsinEurope,NorthernandSouthern America,CentralandSoutheastAsia,Japan, Australia,andNewZealand,theGSHAP hazardmapisprovenoutdated,veryoften wrongasithasbeenshownonmanyoccasions:GSHAPwasprovenwrongafterthe 2010Haitidisaster;afterthe2011Tohoku mega-earthquake,itwasevenshownthat theGSHAPmapscouldhavebeenproved misleadingatthetimeoftheirofficialpublicationin1999.
ThenextgenerationofPSHAmodelsisatthe baseoftheGlobalEarthquakeModel(GEM) products(themostrecentonebeingMPS19for Italy).TheGEMFoundationreleased,attheend of2020,severalnationalandregionalearthquakehazardandriskmodelsandotherglobal modeldigitaldataproductsintheobservance ofthisyear’sInternationalDayforDisasterRisk Reductiontheme theroleofnationalandlocal disasterriskreductionstrategiesongood disasterriskgovernance.
Thishasbeenasmartmovefromthe GSHAPadvocates.Infact,asreportedinthis book,some20yearsafteritslaunch,ithas beenpossibletoprovethatGSHAPistotally unreliable.Infact,severalaretheevidences
ofhowuselessandmisleadingcanbemost ofitspublishedresults.GSHAPisunreliable aswitnessedbythemorethan700,000lives lostbetween2000and2011,when12ofthe world’sdeadliestearthquakeshaveoccurred wherePSHAhadpredictedmuchmore lowerseismichazard.Withthesamegeneral philosophyasGSHAP,plussomecosmetics, some10yearsagoGEMwasproposed.GEM isonthewrongtrack,ifitcontinuestobase seismicriskestimatesonarefined “standard method” toassessseismichazard.Howlong itwillbenecessarytowaittoprovethat GEMisaswrongasGSHAP?ShouldScience Communitywaitforadecadeto findGEMis aswrongasGSHAP?
Thepurposeofthisvolumeistopromote establishinganewparadigmofReliable SeismicHazardAssessment,asynergyofthe up-to-dateavailablescienti ficknowledge thatguaranteespreventionandreductionof unacceptablelossesratherthancurethe consequencesofdisasters.
Thebookisessentialreadingforgeologists,geophysicists,geochemists,exploration geologists,seismologists,volcanologists,
mostcategoriesofengineersfromcivilto mechanical,fromchemicaltocomputer, frombiomedicaltoelectrical;disasterand emergencymanagers,of ficialsatgovernmentalandmunicipalityechelons,logistic officersofmilitaryservices,infrastructure entrepreneurs, financialandinsuranceindustryemployees,multidisciplinarystudents,researchers,andprofessors.
Manyauthorswhoparticipatedinwriting thisbookkeepbeinginspiredbytheinnovativeresearchofVladimirIsaakovich Keilis-Borok(July31,1921 October19, 2013)and,inparticular,byhisabilityto find simplicityincomplexity,activestyle, scienti ficintuition,exceptionalwarmthof soulandhumanity.Catastrophicearthquakesandotherhazardousevents addressedinhisstudiesposeunacceptable threatstopeople. “Mymaintrouble,” he says, “isfeelingofresponsibility” (Los
AngelesTimes,July9,2012).Keilis-Borok hadfoundedauniqueinstitutewherepure mathematiciansworkedjointlywithphysicistsandgeologistsincollaborationwiththe worldfamousexpertsfrommathematics, physics,economics,socialsciences,law enforcement,environmentprotection, disastermanagement,andthegovernment (includingMikhailA.Sadovsky,IzrailM. Gelfand,MicheleCaputo,LeonKnopoff, ClarenceR.Allen,FrankPress,LeonidV. Kantorovich,VinodK.Gaur,KeiitiAki, AlbertoGiesecke,AllanLichtman,Raymond Hide,ClaudeAllègre,YakovG.Sinai,GiulianoF.Panza,DmitriV.Rundqvist,Michael Ghil,andmanyothers).Uponinvitationfrom MohammadAbdusSalam,founderofInternationalCenterforTheoreticalPhysics(ICTP, Miramare,Trieste,Italy),Keilis-BorokcoorganizedwithPanza,asICTPconsultant,a seriesofworkshopsstartingwiththe firstone on PatternRecognitionandAnalysisofSeismicity (December5 15,1983)andendingwith AdvancedSchoolon UnderstandingandPredictionofEarthquakesandOtherExtremeEvents inComplexSystems (September26 October8, 2011).In1991,Keilis-BorokandPanzaestablished “StructureandNonlinearDynamicsof theEarth” SANDGroupattheAbdusSalam ICTP.Keilis-Borokandhisschoolrevolutionizeddisasterpredictionstudiesasthefrontier problemofgeosciences.Hebrokethebarriers
betweenhightheory,numericalmodeling, anddataanalysisforthepurposesofimplementationintothepracticeofinvestigationthe hot,itchy,andoftencontroversialproblems. Hislastpublicationappearedinthe firstissue of InternationalJournalofDisasterRiskReduction describingamissedopportunityfordisaster preparednessinresponsetoadvancepredictionoftheMarch11,2011GreatEastJapan Earthquake,focusingonhowreasonable, prudent,timely,andcost-effectivedecisions canbemadetoreducetheconsequencesof damagingearthquake.
Forhisscientificexcellence,VladimirI. Keilis-BorokwaselectedtotheAmerican AcademyofArtsandSciences(1969),tothe USNationalAcademySciences(1971),tothe RussianAcademyofSciences(1987),to theRoyalAstronomicalSociety(1989),tothe AustrianAcademyofSciences(1992),tothe PontificalAcademyofSciences(1994,Council Membersince1996),andAcademiaEuropaea (1999).In1995,hereceivedDoctorHonoris CausafromInstitutdePhysiqueduGlobede Paris.In1998,EuropeanGeophysicalSociety awardedProf.VladimirI.Keilis-Borokwith the firstLewisFryRichardsonMedal “forhis outstandingcontributionstothestudyofthe nonlineardynamicsofthelithosphere,in particulartothedevelopmentoftheconcept thattheactivelithosphereisahierarchical nonlinearsystem.”
Hazard,risks,andprediction VladimirKossobokov1, 2
1InstituteofEarthquakePredictionTheoryandMathematicalGeophysics,RussianAcademyof Sciences,Moscow,Russia; 2InternationalSeismicSafetyOrganization,ISSO,Arsita,Italy OUTLINE
1.Introduction
Scienceshouldbeabletowarnpeopleofloomingdisaster,VladimirKeilis-Borokbelieves. LosAngeles Times,July9,2012.
TheUNWorldConferenceonDisasterReductionwasheldfromJanuary18 22,2005in Kobe,Hyogo,Japan,andadoptedtheHyogoFrameworkforAction2005 15: “Buildingthe ResilienceofNationsandCommunitiestoDisasters,” daysaftertheDecember26,2004, MW9.2GreatAsianMegaEarthquakeandTsunami.DuringtheConference,aStatement (Kossobokov,2005)atthe “SpecialSessionontheIndianOceanDisaster:riskreductionfor asaferfuture” wasurgingonapossibilityofafewmegaearthquakesofaboutthesame magnitude9.0inthenext5 10years.Thepredictionhasbeencon firmedbyFebruary27, 2010,MW 8.8mega-thrustoffshoreMaule,ChileandtheMarch11,2011,MW 9.1offthe
PacificcoastofTohoku,Japan(Kossobokov,2011; Ismail-ZadehandKossobokov,2020).An opportunitytoreducetheimpactsfromtheseearthquakesandtsunamidisastershasbeen missed. Davisetal.(2012) showhowthepredictioninformationonexpectedworld’slargest earthquakesprovidedbytheM8andMScalgorithms(Keilis-BorokandKossobokov,1990; Kossobokovetal.,1990),althoughlimitedtotheintermediate-termspanofyearsand middle-rangelocationofa1000km,canbeusedtoreducefutureimpactsfromthelargest earthquakes.Theprimaryreasonsfornotusingthepredictionforimprovingpreparations inadvanceoftheTohokuearthquake “include:(1)inadequatelinksbetweenemergencymanagersandtheearthquakepredictioninformation;and(2)nopracticingapplicationofexisting methodologiestoguideemergencypreparationsandpolicydevelopmentonhowtomake decisionsbasedoninformationprovidedforanintermediate-termmiddle-rangeearthquake predictionhavinglimitedbutknownaccuracy.” TheTohokucasestudyexemplifieshow reasonable,prudent,andcost-effectivedecisionscanbemadetoreducedamagingeffects inaregiongivenareliabletimeofincreasedprobabilityfortheoccurrenceofalargeearthquakeandassociatedphenomenasuchastsunami,landslides,liquefaction, floods,and fires.
TheSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction2015 30,asuccessoroftheHyogo FrameworkforActionisasetofagreedcommitmentstoactonthepreventionof “ new ” disastersthroughthetimelyimplementationofintegratedeconomic,structural,legal,social, health,cultural,educational,environmental,technological,political,andinstitutionalmeasures.Yearsafterthe2005Hyogoand2015SendaiFrameworksforDisasterRiskReduction countriesfollowdifferentapproachesandmitigationstrategiesduetothevarietyofsocietal systemsandhazards.Moreover,theongoingCOVID-19pandemicisanitchyexampleof howpublicpoliciesbasedonpresumably “thebestscienceavailable” anddataofhigh qualityappeartobeextremelydifficult,uneven,andleadto Disaster eveninthecountries thatweresupposedlywellpreparedforsuchanemergency.Infact,thepandemicwitha rapidlygrowinggloballessthanayeardeathtollof1,820,841and83,579,767globalcasesreportedonJanuary01,2021(https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html ;asofFebruary13,2021, thenumbersraisedto2,385,203and108,289,000,respectively)shedsasoberingshoweronthe existingmythsaboutdisasters.
Isthereanyreasonforestimatinglong-termtrendsinventingtheMyththatfewerpeople aredyingindisasters,ifapandemiclikeCOVID-19orasingledeadlyeventlikethe December26,2004mega-thrustandtsunamithatkilled227,898peoplecanpushupsignificantlytheexpectedaveragerateofdeathtolls?IsClimateChangethebiggestcauseofdisasters,ifvulnerablepeopleandinfrastructurewidespreadintheareasexposedtoextreme catastrophiceventsofdifferentkinds?Isittruethatnothingcanbedonetostopthe increasingnumberofdisasters,ifacountrycanradicallyreduceitsriskofdisastersbyappropriateinvestments,incentives,andpoliticalleadership?Unlike30yearsago,Sciencedoes havetheknow-howtoreducedamagefromevenmajorhazardouseventstothelevelof incidentsratherthanDisasters.
Evidently,wedonotliveinablack-and-whiteworldandourbeliefsin “initialbasicprinciples” mayleadustomodelsthatcontradictwiththereal-worldobservations.Weknow quitewellthefamous “allmodelsarewrongbutsomeareuseful” (Box,1979)butoftenforget thatsomemodelsareuselessandsomearereallyharmful,especially,whenviewedas
completesubstitutesfortheoriginalnaturalphenomena.Nowadays,inaBigDataWorld whentheglobalinformationstoragecapacitysurpassedthelevelofmorethan6Zettabytes (6 1021 inoptimallycompressedbytes)peryear,opendataandenormousamountofavailableprettyfastuser-friendlysoftwareprovideunprecedentedopportunitiesfordevelopment andenhancingpatternrecognitionstudies,inparticular,thoseappliedtotheEarthSystem processes.However,BigDataWorldopensaswellwideavenuesfor findingdeceptiveassociationsininter-andtransdisciplinarydataandforinflictedmisleadinginventions,predictions,and,regretfully,wrongdecisionsthateventuallymayleadtodifferentkindsof disasters.
2.Thecoreseedofdisaster Commonlanguagevocabularybyitselfissometimesconfusingcommonpeopleunderstandingthemessage,althoughbeingthoughtprovokingandprettymuchinstructive. AccordingtotheCambridgeDictionary(https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/),
• Disaster is “somethingthatcausesalotofharmordamage: • floodsandothernatural disasters” or “afailureorsomethingthathasaverybadresult: • Hisideawasatotal disaster” or “anextremelybadsituation:theholidayendedindisaster.” Thelater suggeststhatsometimesyoudon’tneedanyhazardtoendupinDisaster.
• Hazard is “somethingthatisdangerousandlikelytocausedamage: • ahealth/firehazard. • Thebusytraf ficentrancewasahazardtopedestrians.” Hazard,asaverb,means “toriskdoingsomething,especiallymakingaguess,suggestion,etc.: • Iwouldn’tlike tohazardaguess” orinaformallanguage “toriskdoingsomethingthatmightcause harmtosomeoneorsomethingelse: • Thepolicyhazardedtheislandsandputthelives oftheinhabitantsatrisk.” Mysearchfor “naturalhazard” resultedwithno fitbutadozenof suggestionsincluding “naturaldisaster” astheonlyoneclosetomyqueries.
• Risk,asanoun,means “thepossibilityofsomethingbadhappening: • Inthisbusiness, therisksandtherewardsarehigh. • It’salow/high-riskstrategy(¼ onethatis safe/notsafe).” Risk,asaverb,is “todosomethingalthoughthereisachanceofabad result: • ‘It’sdangeroustocrosshere.’ I’lljusthavetoriskit.” Searchingaroundthe followingexamplefromtheCambridgeEnglishCorpuscaughtmyeyes: “Intheabsenceof evaluativeresearchtovalidateself-administeredriskassessmentquestionnaires,theinformationprovidedisofuncertainbene fit.”
• Vulnerability is “thequalityofbeingvulnerable(¼ abletobeeasilyhurt,influenced,or attacked),orsomethingthatisvulnerable: •Youwantadoctorwhounderstandsthe patient’svulnerability. • Thosewhoorganizedtheattacksexploitedvulnerabilitiesin thenation’sdefences.” Yes,indeed,forseismicriskassessmentwedoneedspecialistswho understandwellseismiceffects,constructiondesign,andnation’svulnerability.
• Prediction is “theactofsayingwhatyouthinkwillhappeninthefuture: • Iwouldn’t liketomakeanypredictionsabouttheresultofthismatch.” Isn’titacommonwayto avoidresponsibility?
Thus,thereisalotof flexibilityincommonlanguagethatjusti fiesthefollowingdisclaimer note: “AnyopinionsintheexamplesdonotrepresenttheopinionoftheCambridge
LOCATION
HAZARD RISK FIGURE1.1 AknotthattiestogetherHazard,Location,Time,Exposure,andVulnerabilityallaroundRisk.
DictionaryeditorsorofCambridgeUniversityPressoritslicensors.” Notethatmanypeople, includingscientists,donotdistinguishbetween “unpredictable,”“random,” and “haphazard,” whichdistinctioniscrucialforscientificreasoningandconclusions.
Wearelivinginariskyworld. Fig.1.1 illustratestheessentialtiesofRiskdefinedasthe chanceofinjury,damage,orloss.The figurecomplementswiththe fifthbasiccomponent oftimetothefourcomponentspresentedby BoissonnadeandShah(1984),whodefine Risk “asthelikelihoodofloss.” InInsuranceStudiestheExposureisdefinedas “thevalue ofstructuresandcontents,businessinterruption,lives,etc.” andVulnerabilityasthesensitivitytoHazard(s)atcertainLocation(i.e., “thepositionoftheexposurerelativetothehazard”).SinceHazardislikelytocausedamageandlossessometimes,theoriginTimeand durationofahazardouseventmaybecomecriticalinitstransformationtoDisaster.
Thus,riskestimateatlocationcandtimet,R(c,t),istheresultofsomeconvolutionofthe hazardwiththeexposedobjectunderconsiderationalongwithitsvulnerability:
whereH(c,t)isahazardestimateatlocationcandtimet,O(c,t)istheexposureofobjectsat risk,andV(O(c,t))isthevulnerabilityofobjectsatrisk.Mathematically,inspecificapplications,ccouldbeapoint,oraline,orsomeareaonorundertheEarthsurface,andthedistributionofpotentialhazards,aswellasobjectsofconcernandtheirvulnerability,couldbe time-dependentlackinganyobviousprincipleoforganization.
Evidently,thereexistmanydifferentriskestimatesevenifthesameobjectofriskandthe samehazardareinvolved.Speci fically,theestimatemayresultfromthedifferentlawsof convolution,aswellasfromdifferentkindsofthevulnerabilityofanobjectatriskunderspecificenvironmentsandconditions.Bothconceptualissuesmustberesolvedina
multidisciplinary,problem-orientedresearchperformedbyspecialistsinthe fieldsofhazard, objectsatrisk,andobjectvulnerability.
Whatdoweknowaboutthe fivecomponentsofarisk?Insomecases,likecrossingahighway,theirevaluationisevidentduetodataenoughforapedestrianreliableassessment basedonrecollectionsofcollectiveattitudeandknowledge.Inothercases,likeCOVID-19, thereisnosuchdatabutheuristicmodelexpectationsattheorigin,aswellasincourseof apandemic;sofar,thecollectiveattitudetowardmakinga “correct” decisionshowsup bothoftheextremesattheindividual,aswellasatthenationallevels.Wealsoknowquite wellthathazardouseventsmaycascade;underthecircumstances,aprimaryonemaycause thesecondary,tertiary,etc.damages,disruptions,andlosses.Thus,dependingontheparticularriskysituationandourresponse,ahazardouseventdevelopmentmaycauseornotcause adisaster.
Whensomebodymakesdecisionaboutanactioninresponsetothepredictionofadisaster, thechoiceisusuallybasedonacomparisonofexpected “blackeyes” (risks/costs)and “feathersincaps” (benefits).Ifthelatterexceedstheformeritisreasonabletogoforward. Buteachofdecision-makersmayhaveratherdifferentopinionsonhazards,risks,andoutcomesofdifferentdecisionsand,asitiswellknown,eventwoexperts(scientists,inparticular)mayhavethreeormoreopinions.Therefore,actualdecisionssometimes(ifnotalways) arenotoptimal,especiallywhentherearealternativewaysofgainingpersonalbene fitsor avoidpersonalguilt.Inmanypracticalcases,decision-makersdonothaveANYOPINION duetoignoranceinbeyond-designcircumstances,denialofhazard,andriskbasedon misconceptions,andasenseofpersonalresponsibilitytoanimpendingdisasterwhenitis toolatetotakeeffectivecountermeasures.
Inatheoreticalanalysisofearthquake,predictionproblemfromthestandpointofdecisionmakingtheory Molchan(1997, 2003) definestheoptimalstrategyasthetouchingpointofthe ErrorDiagramcurve G andthecontourlineofthegivenlossfunction g (see Fig.1.2 where lossesandcostsareproportionaltopredictionfailures n andvolumeofalarm m,respectively). Thegrayareaoftheerrorsetforallpredictionstrategiesbasedona fixedlimitedknowledge formsaconvexsetwhoseboundaryisthe G curve.Optimist ☺ followshigh-riskstrategy: “I wouldn’tliketohazardanypredictionsandtoriskachanceoffalsealarmingofanincipient catastrophe.” Ontheopposite,Pessimist ☹ followsalow-riskstrategy: “Iwouldn’tliketorisk achanceoffailuretopredictacatastrophe.” Bothstrategiesaretrivialextremesofthediagonalofrandomguessing.Givenalossfunction g,aknowledgeabledecision-makerwill followtheoptimalstrategyQ*wherethe g contourlinetouchesthe G curveforthe first timethatcorrespondstominimizingthecostsofresponsetopredictionandlosses.Realistic disastermanagerstendtobenotsuretheyaredoingtherightthing,relyingonfortuneto favortheprepared.
Eventheadvancedtoolsofdataanalysismayleadtowrongassessmentswheninappropriatelyusedtodescribethephenomenonunderstudy.A(self-)deceptiveconclusioncould beavoidedbyverificationofcandidatemodelsinexperimentsonempiricaldataandinno otherway.Unfortunately,manyalarmistsdonotcareatallabouttestinginadvance spreadingtheirdeceptiveclaims.Seismologyisnotanexception.
Regretfully,thefollowingstatement,originallyattributedtoseismichazardassessment, decadesagodoesnotloseitsrelevanceandappliestothepresent-daysituationinanalyzing otherpotentialdamagesandlossesforthetimelyimplementationofintegratedeconomic,
FIGURE1.2 Theerrordiagram: G curvefor findingoptimalstrategies.Optimalstrategyforagivenlossfunction g,correspondstothebestchoiceofcosts-and-benefitsatpointQ*wherethe g-contourlines(dashedlines)touchthe errorsetforallpossiblepredictionstrategiesbasedona fixedlimitedknowledge(grayarea)forthe firsttime. Randomguessdiagonalconnectsthetrivialextremesof optimistic and pessimistic strategies. 1.Hazard,risks,andprediction
structural,legal,social,health,cultural,educational,environmental,technological,political, andinstitutionalmeasures:
However,ignorancestillexistsontheseismicseverity(usuallyexpressedinintensityvalues)asitemay expectinthefutureaswellonthedamageastructuremaysustainforagivenseismicintensity(page233, BoissonnadeandShah,1984).
3.Whatdoweknowaboutearthquakes? Forareliableseismichazardassessment,aspecialistmustbeknowledgeableinunderstandingseismiceffects.
AnearthquakeisasuddenmovementthatgeneratesseismicwavesinsidetheEarthand shakestheground.Althoughhistoricalrecordsonearthquakesareknownfrom2100B.C., mostofthembeforethemiddleofthe18thcenturyaregenerallylackingareliabledescription.Earthquakesarecomplexphenomena.Theirextremecatastrophicnatureisknownfor centuriesduetoresulteddevastationinmanyofthem.Theabruptnessalongwithsporadic, irregular,andrareapparentearthquakeoccurrencesfacilitatetheformationofacommon perceptionthatearthquakesarerandomunpredictablephenomena.Modernadvancesin seismologyprovethatthisisnotthecaseinanumberofaspects.
