PROLOGUE
SeveralmonthsafterthefalloftheBerlinWallRalfDahrendorfwrote abookfashionedonEdmundBurke’s ReflectionsontheRevolution in France.1 LikeBurke,hechosetoputhisanalysisintheformofaletter toagentlemaninWarsaw.2 TheintentionwastoexplaintheextraordinaryeventstakingplaceinEurope.DahrendorfdidnotshareBurke’s liberalconservatismandhisbookdoesnotreadlikeBurke’spolitical pamphlet.Dahrendorftriedtoreflectcalmlyfromhisstudyat StAntony’sCollegeinOxfordontheimplicationsoftheturbulent periodaround .HesawaliberalrevolutionevolvinginEastern Europeandhetriedtoidentifyopportunitiesthatthisrevolution createdaswellaspossibletrapslyinginitspath.
MybookiswrittenintheformofalettertoRalf,mylateGerman mentor.ItfollowsDahrendorf ’slinebytryingtoreflectontheimplicationsoftheequallyturbulentperiodthreedecadeslater.Iseean illiberalcounter-revolutiondevelopinginEuropeandIaimtounderstanditsrootsandimplications.IsEuropedisintegrating?Canopen societysurvive?Howistheeconomiccrisistobeovercome?Will Europeansfeelsecureagain?
AlthoughDahrendorf ’sandmybooksarewritteninthesamespirit andinthesamelocationtheyareneverthelessquitedifferent.Imay wellholdthetitleofRalfDahrendorfProfessorialFellow,butIamnot RalfDahrendorf,ofcourse.HegrewupinfascistGermany;Igrewup incommunistPoland.Hisadultlifewitnessedstatesdevelopingthe welfaresystem,parliamentsregulatingmarkets,andtheprintedpress beingthekeysiteofdemocraticdiscourse.Myadultlifewitnessed statesdismantlingwelfaresystems,parliamentsde-regulatingmarkets,
andtheinternetbeingthekeysiteofdemocraticdiscourse.Dahrendorf wasamemberofthepoliticalestablishment(‘albeitamaverickone’3):a Germanminister,aBritishLord,andaEuropeanCommissioner.Ialso movedbetweendifferentcountries,butremainedakindof ‘intellectual provocateur’ withnopoliticalaf filiationsorfunctions.4
Mostimportantly,ourbooksdealwithoppositeprocesses.His booktalksabouttherevolutionopeningbordersforpeople,ideas, andtrade,aboutconstructingtheruleoflawanddemocracy,about overcomingtheghostsofWestphaliaininterstaterelations,whilemy booktalksaboutthecounter-revolutiondestroyingallthat.Hisbook isaboutextendingtheliberalprojectintoEasternEurope;mybookis abouttheretreatofthisprojectunderpressurefromanti-liberal insurgentsalloverthecontinent.
Thisisnotabookonpopulism,however.Thisisabookabout liberalism.Populismhasbecomeafavouritetopicwithinliberalcircles andnoonehaseverexposedpopulistdeceptionsanddangersbetter thanliberalwriters.Yet,liberalshaveprovedbetterat finger-pointing thanatself-reflection.Theyspendmoretimeexplainingtheriseof populismthanthefallofliberalism.Theyrefusetolookinthemirror andrecognizetheirownshortcomings,whichledtothepopulist surgeacrossthecontinent.Mybookintendstoaddressthisimbalance;thisisaself-criticalbookbyalifelongliberal.
WhenDahrendorfwrotehisbooktherewasalotofconfusionin Europe,butuncertaintywaschieflycon finedtoitseasternpartwhere thecommunistsystemhadbeguntocrumble.Today,theentiretyof Europeisinastateofconfusion,withtheliberalsystembeginningto crumblenotjustinWarsawandBudapest,butalsoinLondon, Amsterdam,Madrid,Rome,Athens,andParis.Europe’scitizensfeel insecureandangry.Theirleaderslookincompetentanddishonest. Theirentrepreneursseemfranticanddistressed.Politicalviolenceis ontherise,chieflybecauseofterrorism,butnotjust.Howisitpossible thatapeaceful,prosperous,andintegratedcontinentisfallingapart? WhydidseeminglypragmaticEuropeansembarkonajourneyinto theunknownunderpopulistbanners?WhyisEurope’seconomic
governanceneitherjustnoreffective?Whoorwhatshouldbe blamed?Howshallwesurvivethecurrentturmoil?And,mostcrucially,howisthependulumofhistorytobereversed?Thesearethe questionsIwillbewrestlingwithhere.
MylettersuggeststhatEuropeanditsliberalprojectneedtobe reinventedandrecreated.Thereisnosimplewayback.Europehas failedtoadjusttoenormousgeopolitical,economic,andtechnological changesthathavesweptthecontinentoverthepastthreedecades. Europeanmodelsofdemocracy,capitalism,andintegrationarenot insyncwithnewcomplexnetworksofcities,bankers,terrorists,or migrants.LiberalvaluesthatmadeEuropethriveformanydecadeshave beenbetrayed.Theescalationofemotions,myths,andordinaryliesleft littlespaceforreason,deliberation,andconciliation.
Another ‘valleyoftears’ isthereforeaheadforEuropeans,because Idon’tthinkthateitherChancellorMerkelorPresidentMacronwill single-handedlygetEuropeoutofthecurrentpredicament.However, liberalismmaybedown,butitisnotout.Theneo-liberaldetourhas donemuchdamage,butthereisnoreasontoabandonsomecore liberalcredos:rationality,liberty,individuality,controlledpower,and progress.Thecounter-revolutionarieshavemademanygainsby exploitingpathologiesoftheEU,liberaldemocracy,andthefree market,buttheylackaplausibleprogrammeofrecoveryandrenewal.
Europehasmanydarkchaptersinitshistory,butitalsohasbright onesshowingaremarkablecapacityforintellectualreflection,public deliberation,andinstitutionalinnovation.Istronglybelievethatthe currentEuropeanpredicamentcouldwellturnintoanotherwonderful renaissance,butthiswillrequireseriousreflectiononwhatwent wrong.Thisletterattemptsthisreflectionwithoutprejudiceanddread.
Iamapoliticalanalyst,notaphilosopherorhistorian.Itryto understandhowcertainpoliticalideasshapestrategiesofpoliticaland economicentrepreneurs.Typologiesandtheevolutionofvarious liberalstreamsarebetteranalysedsomewhereelse.Unlikemost historians,Ilookbacktounderstand,ifnotenvisage,thefuture. Bypointingtovariousnovelfeaturesofdemocracy,economics,and
communicationItrytosuggestanewliberalprojectforacontinent challengednotonlybythecounter-revolutionary ‘earthquake’,but alsobygradualtechnological,societal,andenvironmentalprocesses. Thisletterispartlyaboutmodernity,connectivity,anddigitalization. Howisitpossibletomakestates,cities,regions,andinternational organizationsperformbetterinanevermoreinterdependentenvironment?Howcantransparency,accountability,andgovernmentality beenhancedinaEuropewith ‘fuzzy’ borders?Howshallcitizensbe protectedfromviolence,exploitation,andclimatechange?Howisthe politicsoffeartobereplacedwiththepoliticsofhope?AttimesImay soundexceedinglygloomyinthisletter,butIbelieveinahappy endingforEuropeandevenforliberals.
1 FROMREVOLUTIONTO COUNTER-REVOLUTION
DearRalf,
SeveralhoursaftertheBrexitreferendumresultswereannounced studentsandtutorsfromyourStAntony’sCollegegatheredinthe EuropeanStudiesCentre.Mostofthosepresent,aprettyinternational crowd,weredepressed,someevenhadtearsintheireyes.Theycould notbelievethatthemajorityofBritishvotersoptedforleavingthe EuropeanUnion.Theycouldnotunderstandwhyamountainof rationalargumentsinsupportoftheremainvotefellondeafears. Whywasavastbodyofstatisticalevidenceshowingthecostsof leavingtheEUignored?HowcouldseeminglypragmaticBritsrefuse totrustthem:theacademics,thejournalists,theexperts?Andwhy hadshadypoliticianssuchasNigelFarage,AndreaLeadsom,and MichaelGoveprevailedoverthewinnersofrecentparliamentary elections,DavidCameronandGeorgeOsborne?Mostofthesequestionsremainedunanswered.
JustbeforetheBrexitreferendumIwasinItalywheretheFive-star movementledbyacomedian,BeppeGrillo,woncontroloverRome andTurininlocalelections.InRomethesocialdemocraticadministrationhasbeenaccusedbytheFive-starmovementofnepotism, incompetence,andcorruption.TheelectionresultswereanunexpectedblowtotheleaderoftheDemocraticParty,PrimeMinister MatteoRenzi.StunnedItaliancommentatorswerebluntlytoldby Grillo: ‘Youareunabletocomprehendthebirthandriseofmy movementbecauseyouaretranslatingeverythingintoyourown language.Youaresimplycutofffromreality.’1 Afewmonthslater
MatteoRenzisteppeddownasPrimeMinisterafterfailingtowina majorityforhisconstitutionalreformsinareferendum.
AftertheBrexitreferendumI fl ewtoPolandwhereopposition partiesaccusedthewinnerofthepreviousyear ’ selectionsoforchestratingaconstitutionalcoup,paralyzingthejudiciarysystem,and purgingpublicmediaofsuspectedcritics. ‘ Iamnotadictator,’ Jarosł awKaczy ń skitolddaily Rzeczpospolita . ‘ Polandisanexample ofdemocracyandanislandoflibertyinaworldwherefreedomisin shortsupply.’ 2
Whatisgoingon?Whoiswrongandwhoisright?Howdoesone establishtruthinthiseraofpost-truth?HaveEuropeanvotersgone insane?AreNigelFarage,BeppeGrillo,andJarosławKaczyński prophetsorfrauds?Dothesethreeabove-mentionedpolitical experienceshavesomethingincommon?DotheyshowanewdevelopmentinEuropeanpolitics,andifso,howdowenameit?3 Weclearly liveinturbulenttimeswithhighlyuncertainoutcomes.Long-standing assumptionsdonotholdanylonger.Symbolicpoliticshastakenover fromrealpolitics.Everythingseemspossibleatpresent.Andyet,we needtomakesenseofthehistoryrollingoverEuropewithaforceand paceunknownsinceyouwrote ReflectionsontheRevolutioninEurope nearlythreedecadesago.
Letmereturntoyourconcernsandputthecurrentdevelopments inthecontextofthe Revolutionthatyouexamined.Idoso becauseIbelievethatwearewitnessingaconcertedefforttodismantle thesystemcreatedafterthefalloftheBerlinWall.Wearewitnessinga counter-revolution.
WhathappenedinGreatBritainon June isonlyoneof manyepisodesheraldingtheriseofapowerfulmovementaimedat destroyingthenarrativeandorderthatdominatedtheentirecontinent after .UnderattackisnotjusttheEUbutalsoothersymbolsofthe currentorder:liberaldemocracyandneo-liberaleconomics,migration andamulticulturalsociety,historical ‘truths’ andpoliticalcorrectness, moderatepoliticalpartiesandmainstreammedia,culturaltolerance andreligiousneutrality.AsthecitedItalian,British,andPolishcases
show,therearelocalvariationsofthismovement,butthecommon denominatoristherejectionofpeopleandinstitutionsthathave governedEuropeinthelastthreedecades.Moreover,let’snotdelude ourselvesbypointingtotheresultsofthe electionsintheNetherlands,France,andtheUnitedKingdom.MarkRutte,EmmanuelMacron, andTheresaMayhaveembracedsomeofthecounter-revolutionary rhetorictowinthepopularvote.Ruttecastigatedmigrants,Macron bashedtraditionalparties,andMayembracedahardBrexit.Canliberalismsurvivewithsomanyillibe ralornaments?Shouldliberals rejoicebecausesoftpopulistspr evailedoverhardones?Evenin prosperousandstableGermany,theright-wingnationalistAlternativeforGermany(AfD)enteredth eBundestagwithnearlyahundred seatsinthe elections.AngelaMerkelremainedinpower,but herpartyandsocialdemocraticall iessufferedahistoricdefeat.
Weshouldalsoconsiderthebroadergeopoliticalcontext.Illiberal politiciansarerulingwiththevoters’ blessinginEurope’stwolargest neighbours,TurkeyandRussia.TheelectionofDonaldTrumpas PresidentoftheUnitedStatesofAmericaalsohasgraveimplications fortheoldcontinent.TheUSmaywellbeseparatedfromEuropeby theAtlantic,buttheUSisaquintessentialEuropeanpower;nomajor decisionistakeninEuropewithoutAmericainmind.DonaldTrump talkslikemanyEuropeancounter-revolutionariesandwhenrunning forthepresidencyhewaspubliclyendorsedbysuchprominent EuropeaninsurgentsasMarineLePenandNigelFarage.
TheMeaningofChange
Whyisthisacounter-revolution?Thereareneitherbarricadesraised onEuropeanstreetsnorsit-instrikesinfactories.Thereisnoparticularideologyinspiringandunitingprotestmovements.Thereis muchtalkaboutanti-politics,but thosewholeadtheprotestcreate partiesandtrytowinelections.Yet,itwouldbeamistaketo assumethatrevolutionorcounter-revolutionmustalwaysinvolve massmobilizationsandviolenceculminatingonacertaindate.
Communismcollapsedwithlittleifanyviolence.Poland ’ sSolidarity movementwasabletoorganizemassstrikesin ,notadecadelater. Changecamechieflythroughpactsbetweenoldandnewelitesand throughelections.Andyetitishardtodenythatthisrelativelypeaceful processchangedEuropebeyondrecognition.Historydidnotend,but theoldorderhasgraduallybeenreplacedbyanewone.Althoughsome oftheformercommunistswereabletostayinpower,theywereableto dosoonlyafterendorsingthenewliberalorder.Thisiswhyyourightly calleditarevolutiondespiteallqualifications.And,sinceyouwrote yourbookin ,therevolutionhasgreatlyprogressed.
TheSovietUnionandYugoslaviadisintegrated,Germanyhasbeen reunitedandtheEuropeanUnionaswellasNATOhavebeenvastly expanded.Westernarmies,laws, firms,andcustomsmovedeastward. Manypeopleenthusiasticallywelcomednewregimesintheirterritory, butsomefeltdisadvantagedeitherbecauseoftheirethnicbackground (e.g.RussiansinLatvia,SerbsinBosnia-Herzegovina)orbecausethey lackedadequateprofessionalskillstofunctioninthenewcompetitive environment.Along-standingbalanceofpowerinEuropehasbeen effectivelyreshuf fled.Russiasoonbegantoseeherselfasanunderdog, butalsoFrancefoundherselfinaweakerpositionvis-à-visGermany thanwasthecasebefore.
Geopoliticalrevolutionhasbeenfollowedbyeconomicrevolution. Withthefallofcommunismsomeofitsmoreuniversalidealscame under fire:collectivism,redistribution,socialprotection,andstate interventionintheeconomy.Thispavedthewayforneo-liberal economicstoassumeadominantpositionthroughouttheentire continent,notjustinGreatBritain.Deregulation,marketization,and privatizationbecametheorderofthedayeveninstatesrunby socialistparties.Theprivatesectorhassubsequentlyexpandedatthe expenseofthepublicsector.Marketsandmarket-valuesmovedinto spheresthatusedtobethedomainofthepublicsectorinEuropesuch ashealth,education,publicsafety,environmentalprotection,and evennationalsecurity.Socialspendinghasbeencontainedifnot slashedaltogetherforcertaindisadvantagedgroups.Evenincountries
suchasFranceorSpain,oncehometopowerfulunions,lessthan percentoftheworkforceisunionizednow.MembershipofPoland’s Solidaritytradeunionhasfallen fivefoldsince .Todaylessthan percentofPoland’sworkforceisunionized.
AcrossEurope,politicswasincreasinglypresentedasanartof institutionalengineeringandnotasanartofpoliticalbargaining betweentheelitesandtheelectorate.Moreandmorepowerswere delegatedtonon-majoritarianinstitutions centralbanks,constitutionalcourts,regulatoryagencies tomakesurethatreasonrather thanpassionguidespoliticaldecisions.Politicsgivingintopublic pressurewasconsideredirresponsibleifnotdangerous.Majorities weresaidtospendmoneytheydidn’thave,todiscriminateagainstall kindofminorities,tosupportsuchethicallyknottycausesasthedeath penaltyortorture.Citizensweretobeeducatedratherthanlistenedto. Thenotionthatpublicinterestsneedtoreflectpublicwisheshasbeen questioned.Interestsweresaidtobebestidentifiedbyexperts:generals, bankers,traders,lawyers,and,ofcourse,leadersoftherulingparties.
TheEUwithitsenlargedpowersfollowingthe Maastricht Treatyhasbeenaprototypeofanon-majoritarianinstitutionledby ‘enlightened’ expertslargelyindependentfromelectoralpressures. True,theEuropeanCouncilconsistedofdemocraticallyelectedpoliticians,buttheintroductionofmajorityvotinghasmadeitdifficultfor memberstatestovetosomedecisions.Infact,nationalexecutives provedeagertobypasstheirrespectiveparliamentsbymakingdecisionsintheEuropeanCouncil.
Historiansmayquestionmyperio dization.Liberalidealshave in fl uenceddifferentgenerationsofpoliticianssincetheAgeof Enlightenment.Partieswhichformallycalledthemselvesliberalhad morepowerbefore thanafter. 4 Neo-liberaleconomicshadbeen ontheriseinWesternEuropeforanumberofyearsbeforethefallof theBerlinWall.TheliberaltypeofdemocracywasborninEastern Europein ,butinWesternEuropeitwasbornmuchearlier.That said, representedasymbolictriumphofliberalideals.Withthe falloftheBerlinWallliberalismbecame ‘ theonlygameintown ’
acrosstheentirecontinent.Post-c ommuniststateshavebecomethe mostenthusiasticadvocatesofneo-liberaleconomics.Theyalso embracedtheprocessofEuropeanintegrationwiththegreatestfervour. Differentstreamsofliberalismmergedintoasinglepan-European ideologicalproject;formerlydis tinctpoliticalgroupingsofthe centre-leftandcentre-righthaveu nitedundertheliberalbanner; theliberalorderhasbeenembracedinsuchdistantgeographic locationsasLisbon,Helsinki,andBu charest.Inthissense,theliberal revolutionhasindeedbeenbuilt ontheruinsoftheBerlinWall, eventhoughhistorydoesnotendorbeginonanyparticulardate. 5
TargetsofContestation
You,Ralf,may findmydescriptionofliberalruleoverthepastthree decadestooharshandone-sided.Yet,unlessyouassumethatthe insurgentshavedivinepowersofdeception,itishardtoexplainwhy votersbegantodeserttheliberalcause.6 Somethingmusthavegone verybadlywrong,don’tyouthink?
Thelegacyofthepastthreedecadesisnotonlynegative,ofcourse. TheSovietsystemwasinef ficient,unjust,andoppressive;thereisno reasontobenostalgicaboutitsdemise.Neo-liberaleconomicsproved abletogenerategrowthandinnovation.Andthedangersofamajoritarianpoliticsactingwithnoconstitutionalor fiscalconstraintsare real.Whyshouldagovernmentofthedaybeallowedtocreatedebts thathavetoberepaidbythenextgenerationsoftaxpayers?Its democraticmandate,howeverstrong,relatestothecurrent,notthe futuregenerationofelectors.Andifthewinnersofelectionstryto curbtherightsofreligiousminoritiesortherightsofwomen,should thisbeallowed?
EventheopaquedemocracyintheEUcanbedefended.AsRobert A.Dahlrightlyargued,largerunitsareobviouslyfurtherawayfrom theircitizens,buttheyareinabetterpositiontocopewithglobal pressuresforthesakeoftheircitizens.Thereisanimportanttrade-off betweencitizens’ participationandsystemeffectiveness.7
However,thisisarathergenerousevaluationofthepost- order anddoesnottakeintoaccountpowerpolitics.Eachrevolutionproduceswinnersandlosers;thelatteroughttobeaccommodatedin somewayorelsetheyrebel.Satisfyinglosersisnevereasy.West GermanyhasinvestedahugesumofmoneyinEastGermany,but despitealltheinvestmentssomecitizensintheeasternpartarestill resentfulaboutthepost- changes.Theymaybefreeandaffluent atpresent,buttheyfeellikesecond-classGermancitizens.Clearly, accommodatinglosersisnotonlyaboutmoney.Polandhasgrown morethananyEuropeancountryoverthepastdecade,yetin the majorityofPoland’selectoratesupportedacounter-revolutionary partycampaigningonananti-liberalandanti-Europeanticket.They foundtheelitesuccessfullyrulingPolandmoreinterestedinthe opinionofinternationalratingagencies,foreignpress,andEuropean bureaucratsthaninthatoftheirownordinarycitizens.Warningsthat thisregimechangewouldgeneratedirepoliticalandeconomicconsequenceswereignored.
MostotherpartsofEuropehavenotdonesowelleconomicallyas GermanyandPoland,whichobviouslymadeiteasierforthecriticsof the(neo-)liberalrevolutiontothrive.Consider,forinstance,Hungary wherethecombinationofweakstatecapacity,incompetenteconomics,andcorruptionpavedthewayforanauthoritarian,ifnotautocratic,leadersuchasViktorOrbán.Portugal,Greece,andSpainfound themselvesinsolventfollowingthe global financialcrisis.With GDPplungingandunemploymentsky-rocketingitwasobviously impossibletokeepeverybodyhappy.Thosedependentontheshrinkingpublicprovisions,thosewithnoskillstocompeteinthemarket, orthosesqueezedbymobilemigrantlabourwerereadytoswitch theirvotetopoliticalentrepreneurswhoopposedthedominant order.Evenrelativelyaf fluentcountriessuchasItaly,France,Austria, Holland,Denmark,Sweden,andFinlandhavefounditdifficultto avoidpressurecomingfromanti-establishmentparties.
TheEurocrisisandthesubsequentrefugeecrisisdemonstrated thattheneworderislesseffectiveandliberalthanclaimedbyits
proponents. ‘Post-capitalism’ and ‘post-democracy’ areclearlyinferior totheoriginalbrand.8 Thetwocrisesalsohighlightedthegrowing imbalancesamongindividualstatesofEurope.Therearenotonly creditorstatesanddebtorstates,butalsodecision-makersand decision-takers.SomeeventalkaboutaGerman(accidental)empire inEurope.9 Moreover,thetwocrisesshowedthatEuropeanleadersare unabletoreversetheircourseandadoptmoreeffectiveactions.Strict rulesoftheFiscalCompactTreatyleftvirtuallynospaceforindebted countriestoadjusttheireconomicpoliciesandthereisnoagreement onhowtohandlemigrationinahumaneandeffectivemanner.
ThecaseofGreeceisveryillustrativehere.Greeceisnolonger allowedtotakesovereignsocio-economicdecisions,butthepolicies imposedonitbyfellowEuropeansareclearlynotworking.Afterthree successiveandexpensivebailoutsthereislittlehopethatGreecewill everrepayitsdebts.NorisitcredibletoclaimthatGreecewill effectivelycontrolitsbordersafternumerousEUsummitstelling Greecewhatoughttobedone.NowonderthehandlingofGreece hasdisappointedmanyGreekswhoseviewswereignoredafterthe referendumandthe elections.Frustratedalsoarethevoters incountrieseffectivelyrulingGreecebecausetheyclearlyarenot gettingproperreturnsontheirinvestments.
Whenfacedwiththeelectoralpressurefromthe ‘newkidsonthe block’ theestablishedright-andleft-wingpartieschosetojumpinto bedtogetherratherthanadmittingpastmistakesandreversingtheir policies.Wewitnessedsuchpreviouslyunimaginablealliancesas thosebetweentheconservativeNewDemocracyandsocialist PASOKinGreeceandbetweenBerlusconi’sForzaItaliaandthe post-communistDemocraticPartyinItaly.Thisonlyreinforcedthe impressionthatoldideologicaldividinglinesaregoneandhavebeen replacedbyanew(neo-)liberalnotionofnormalityor,ifyouwish, rationality.Theofficialnarrativebecameblackandwhite.TheestablishmentinsistedoncontinuingwithprojectsthatgaveEurope ‘prosperityandpeace’ anditaccusedcriticsoftryingtoundermineitsnoble efforts.Self-reflection,letaloneself-criticism,havebeenmissing.
TheEUwasproclaimedtobetheengineofcooperationandthose whocriticizeditwerecalledagentsofPutin.ThefactthattheEUhas recentlygeneratedmajorconflictsbymishandlingtheEurocrisis,the refugeecrisis,andtosomeextentalsothecrisisinUkrainehasbeen ignoredordenied.Basicfacetsofneo-liberaleconomicswerestill treatedassacrosancteventhoughthistypeofeconomicscontributed tothe financialbubbleof andcausedhardshipformillionsof Europeans.Norwasthereanacknowledgementthattheexisting systemofparliamentaryrepresentationneedstobefundamentally rethought.Curbingthepowersofcentralbanks,constitutionalcourts, theEU,andothernon-majoritarianinstitutionshasnotbeenseriously contemplated,letaloneorchestratedbythemainstreamparties.
Withthepassageoftime,unsolvedproblemsstartedtomountand theofficialrhetoricbecamemoreaggressive.Questioningtheestablishedtabooswasportrayedasirresponsibleifnotinsane.Therulers werepreparedtooffersomecosmeticconcessionstoanevermore desperateelectorate,butsofarnoseriousplanBhasbeenproposed bythewinnersofthe revolution.Theelectoratehasbeen remarkablypatientforsometime,b utithasslowlystartedtodesert theestablishedparties.Thishasopenedawindowofopportunity foralternativepoliticians.Theyhavepromisedthatachangeofa governmentwouldmeanagenuinechangeofpoliciesifnotthe existingsystemaltogether.
TheCounter-RevolutionaryInsurgents
Thecounter-revolutionarypoliticiansrepresentaverymixedbag. TheyincludesuchdiversecharactersasMarinelePen,BeppeGrillo, MatteoSalvini,GeertWilders,Gerolf Annemans,AliceWeidel,Alexander Gauland,ChristianThulesen,JimmieAkesson,TimoSoinini,Norbert Hofer,NigelFarage,ViktorOrbán,JarosławKaczyński,RobertFico, AndrejBabis,AlexisTsipras,andPabloIglesias.Theirpersonalbackgroundsandideologicalrootsareverydifferent:fromneo-fascistto neo-communist,fromlibertariantoconservative,fromanti-austerity
toanti-Muslim,fromnationalisttosecessionist.Somearemoderate, whileothersarehardliners.Thosewhomanagedtotakecontrolof theircountriestalkandactdifferentlyfromthosewhoarestillcampaigningfromthesidelines.However,theyallhaveonethingin common:theyareagainsttheorderinstalledafterthe revolution. TheyattacknotonlythosewhoruledEuropeafter ,butalsotheir keypoliticalprojects:Europeanintegration,constitutionalliberalism,andneo-liberaleconomics.
Migrantshavebeenatthecentreofpoliticalcampaignsformostof thecounter-revolutionaryinsurgents,becausemigrantsrepresenta quintessentialproductofthepost- policyofopeningborders,of protectingminorities,andofforgingeconomicinterdependence. Someofthesepoliticiansmaywellberacists,10 butthereisno evidencetosuggestthatxenophobiaisthemainreasonfortheir anti-immigrationstance.Iconsciouslyexcludedfromtheabove counter-revolutionarylistofpoliticiansthosewhoareprimarily drivenbyethnichatred,suchasIliasPanagiotarosoftheGreekGolden DawnPartyandGaborVonaoftheHungarianJobbikParty.
Ofcourse,throwingintoonebagsuchdiversepoliticiansas Jarosł awKaczyń skiandAlexisTsiprasisproblematic.Theformer isultra-conservative,whilethel atterisradicallyleftist.Kaczyń ski seesRussiaasathreat,whileTsiprasseesRussiaasanally.Kaczy ń ski wantstosoftenthenastyedgeofn eo-liberalism,whileTsiprasis fundamentallyopposedtoneo -liberaleconomics.Kaczy ń skiwould liketheEUtobemoredetachedandintergovernmental,while TsipraswouldliketheEUtobemorecompassionateandfederal.
Kaczy ń skiiswholeheartedlyagainstacceptingrefugees,while Tsiprasiscallingforajustandeffectivesystemofreallocationof refugees.Andyet,itisdif fi culttodenythatbothKaczy ń skiand Tsiprasloathetheelitesthatruledtheircountriesforthepast decadesandtheybothaspiretotransformtheirrespectivecountries inafundamentalway.Theymakeconcessionswhenpressedby suchpowerful fi guresasAngelaMerkelorinstitutionssuchas theEUortheIMF,butthisdoesnotmeanthattheyaregivingup
theirstruggleforafundamentallynewregimeintheirrespective countries.
Thecounter-revolutionarypoliticiansareoftencalledpopulist.This termismisleadingandstigmatizingandfailstoidentifythekey objectiveofthesepoliticians,namelytheabolitionofthepost- orderandreplacementoftheelitesassociatedwiththisorder.I find numerousstatementsofthesepoliticianshighlyobjectionable,but thisdoesnotmeanthattheircritiqueofthecurrentorderisnotvalid, atleastinsomepart.Therulingpoliticalandintellectualeliteisalltoo keentocallallkindsofcritique ‘populist ’ .
Populistsaresaidtoproposesimplesolutionstocomplicated problems.However,thereisnothingwrongwithsimplesolutionsif theyarejust,efficient,andadoptedaccordingtodemocraticprocedures.Theminimumwageandinheritancetaxrepresentwidelyused, simplesolutionsforcopingwithcomplexinequalityproblems. Shouldtheybecalled ‘populist’ andthereforeabandoned?Populists aresaidtousemoralisticrhetoric,makeunrealisticpromises,and launchunfairpersonalattacksontheiropponents.Sadly,allthese characteristicscanbeattributedtomostcurrentpoliticiansandnot justtothegroupdiscussedhere.Aheadofallnationalelections politiciansfromdifferentpartiesmakeemptysocialpromises.Bombasticandmoralisticrhetoricisalsopartoftheliberalrepertoire. Considerthe ‘axisofevil’ rhetoricontheeveofthe Iraqinvasion. Smearingpoliticalfoesisaroutinepartofallpoliticalcampaigns. Considerthewaytheliberalintellectualsandpoliticiansdescribetheir ‘populist’ opponents.AmeetingbetweenNigelFarageandJulian AssangeinMarch wascomparedtoaHitler–Stalinpactby NickCohenin TheGuardian. 11 Farage,accordingtoCohen, ‘exploits chauvinismandplaysonracialfears’,whileAssange ‘providessupport servicestothegangstercapitalistsofthenewRussianempire’ . ‘Extremesmerge.Redbleedsintoblack,’ concludedCohen.Iguess theauthorofthisarticleseeshimselfnotasapopulist,butasaliberal.
Populistsaresaidtooveremphasizethecleavagebetween ‘theelite’ and ‘thepeople’;theformerisbeingdemonizedandthelatter
idealized.Intheirview,politicsshouldbeanexpressionofthe volonté générale ofthepeople.12 Thepeoplemaynotbeas ‘ pure ’ and ‘sensible’ aspopulistsclaim;likewise,theelitemaynotbeas ‘corrupted’ and ‘inefficient’ astheyassert.Yet,thedistinctionbetweenthepeopleand theeliteisquitelegitimate,anddemocracyshouldmakesurethatthe formerhavesomecontroloverthelatter.Thisisnottoendorsea plebiscitariannotionofdemocracy,buttoarguefordemocracythatis responsivetoelectoralwishesandthatgivestheelectoratemeaningful meansofchangingtheelitesinpowerandtheiractualpolicies.
MargaretCanovanoncepointedoutthatdemocracyhastwofacets: redemptiveandpragmatic.Theformerseesthepeopleastheonly sourceoflegitimateauthorityandpromisessalvationthroughthe policyofpopularmobilization.Thelatterseesdemocracyasaform ofgovernmentwithinstitutionslimitingpowerandmakingiteffective.Populistsaretryingtoemphasizetheformeraspectandtoexploit thegapbetweenthepromiseandperformanceofdemocracy.13 Isthis suchadeplorablestrategy,Iwonder.
Ofcourse,muchdependsonthedetails.Populistsoftenusean extremelyhardlanguageappealingtothedarksideofhumaninstincts indefianceoftherecognizedmoralandpoliticalnorms.14 Infact,this istheirpurposefulstrategy.Challengingthenotionofestablished normalityrequirescrossingtheborderofpoliticalcorrectness.15 Liberalsmay finditmorallydisgracefulandaestheticallydispleasing.They mayportray ‘theuglyothers’ asirresponsibleanddangerous.Idon’t denythatthereareoftenlegitimategroundsforsuchportrayals.Yet, those ‘others’ areincreasinglymoreskilfulatwinningelections.As SimonJenkinsputitsuccinctlyinthe Guardian: ‘Thoseothersarenot “populist”––thelatestbuzzwordofintellectualabuse theyarejust popular.’16 Inthesummerof thecounter-revolutionaryinsurgentswerealreadyrunningagovernmentinHungary,Poland, Slovakia,andGreece.TheywerepartofagovernmentinFinland, andwereproppingupaminoritygovernmentinDenmark.InItaly theFive-starmovementandintheNetherlandsthePartyforFreedom werethemainoppositionparties,whileinFrancethe ‘populist’
candidatecamesecondinthepresidentialelections,defeatingleaders ofallotherestablishedparties.InGreatBritain ‘populists’ wereable tocarrythedayintheBrexitreferendumandgainedgroundin bothleadingparties,ToriesandLabour.IntheAutumnof ,the Euro-scepticANOpartyofthebillionaireAndrejBabiswonthe parliamentaryelectionsintheCzechRepublic,andtheelectionsin AustriaandGermanyrecordednotableachievementsofright-wing ‘populists’ fromtheFPÖandAfDparties.
Thelastcaseshowsthatthecounter-revolutionaryinfluencecan hardlybemeasuredbyelectoralperformancesonly.Theysetthetone ofthepoliticaldiscourseandestablishwhichissuesaredebated;they givevoicetopeople’sanxietiesandexposeliberal flaws;theyarouse thepoliticsoffear,acrimony,andvengeance.NigelFaragewasnot evenabletowinaseatintheBritishparliament,andyetitishardto overestimatehisimpactontheresultoftheBrexitreferendum.The factthatmainstreamliberalpartiesinFrancewerenotabletoput forwardastrongenoughcandidatetochallengeMarineLePenisalso telling.IamhappytogiveEmmanuelMacronthebene fitofthedoubt, butheisstillarathermysteriouspoliticalentrepreneur:anex-banker risingtopoliticalprominencethroughtheSocialistPartywhichhe thenbetrayedtoformhisownpoliticalmovement, EnMarche! (Forward!),whichhedefinesasneitherleftnorright.17 WhenMacronwon thePresidentialelection,Italiannewspaperslabelledhimasaviorof Europe,butseveralweekslatersomeofthemaccusedhimofdeclaring waronItalyandEuropeanprinciples.ThisisbecauseMacronrefused tohelpItalycopewithrefugees,brokeadealwiththeLibyanrival leaderswithoutconsultingItaly,andnationalizedaFrenchshipyardto avoidanItaliantake-over.
Self-proclaimedliberalshavealsoprogressivelyadoptedrhetoric thatresemblesthepopulistonebyanystandards.Thiswasmost strikingontheeveoftheDutchelectionsin .Inordertoseeoff thethreatofGeertWilders,theLiberalParty(VVD)adopted ‘astrategy thatcouldhavecomefromPresidentTrump’splaybook’,tocitethe NewYorkTimes. 18 InhisvictoryspeechtheVVDleader,MarkRutte,
