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ClimateJustice

ClimateJustice IntegratingEconomics

andPhilosophy

GreatClarendonStreet,Oxford,OX26DP, UnitedKingdom

OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwide.Oxfordisaregisteredtrademarkof OxfordUniversityPressintheUKandincertainothercountries

©OxfordUniversityPress2019

Chapter2©TheWorldBank2019

Themoralrightsoftheauthorshavebeenasserted

FirstEditionpublishedin2019

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Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedin aretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans,withoutthe priorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress,orasexpresslypermitted bylaw,bylicenceorundertermsagreedwiththeappropriatereprographics rightsorganization.Enquiriesconcerningreproductionoutsidethescopeofthe aboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment,OxfordUniversityPress,atthe addressabove

Youmustnotcirculatethisworkinanyotherform andyoumustimposethissameconditiononanyacquirer

PublishedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyOxfordUniversityPress 198MadisonAvenue,NewYork,NY10016,UnitedStatesofAmerica

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LinkstothirdpartywebsitesareprovidedbyOxfordingoodfaithand forinformationonly.Oxforddisclaimsanyresponsibilityforthematerials containedinanythirdpartywebsitereferencedinthiswork.

Contents

ListofFigures vii

ListofTables ix

ListofContributors xi

1.ClimateJustice:IntegratingEconomicsandPhilosophy1 RaviKanburandHenryShue

2.PoorPeopleontheFrontLine:TheImpactsofClimateChange onPovertyin203024 JulieRozenbergandStéphaneHallegatte

3.GoverningtheCommonstoPromoteGlobalJustice:Climate ChangeMitigationandRentTaxation43 MichaelJakob,OttmarEdenhofer,UlrikeKornek, DominicLenzi,andJanMinx

4.EquityImplicationsoftheCOP21IntendedNationally DeterminedContributionstoReduceGreenhouseGasEmissions63 AdamRose,DanWei,andAntonioBento

5.ClimateChangeandInequity:HowtoThinkaboutInequities inDifferentDimensions95 NicoleHassounandAndersHerlitz

6.ClimateChangeandEconomicSelf-Interest113 JulieA.Nelson

7.Noncompliers’ Duties123 AnjaKarnein

8.Divest–Invest:AMoralCaseforFossilFuelDivestment139 AlexLenferna

9.JusticeandPosterity157 SimonCaney

10.DiscountingandtheParadoxoftheIndefinitely PostponedSplurge175

MatthewRendall

11.TheControllabilityPrecautionaryPrinciple:Justification ofaClimatePolicyGoalUnderUncertainty188 EugenPissarskoi

12.TheSocialCostofCarbonfromTheorytoTrump209 J.PaulKelleher

13.Long-TermClimateJustice230 JohnNolt

Appendix:DeclarationonClimateJustice247

Index 251

ListofFigures

2.1.Chosenindicatorsforpovertyandinequalitiesforfourcountries28

2.2.Summaryofclimatechangeimpactsonthenumberofpeopleliving belowtheextremepovertythreshold,bysource34

2.3.Increaseinpovertyrateduetoclimatechangeintheworstcase climatechangescenarioconsidered36

2.4.Incomelossesforthepoorest40percentineachcountryandinour fourscenarios(y-axis)againstaverageincomelosses37

3.1.Revenuesfromcarbonpricingundera450ppmscenariowithfull technologicalavailability48

3.2.Currentsourcesoftaxrevenuesaswellaspotentialoflandtaxesand distributionaleffects52

3.3.Totalshareofresourcerentsneededtosimultaneouslyachieve universalaccessto(a)water,(b)sanitation,(c)electricity,and(d) telecommunication54

3.4.Projectedchangesineconomicrentsaccruingtofossilenergycarriers andcarboninmitigationscenarios,relativetobaseline,overthe twenty-firstcentury(inUS$trillion)56

4.1.Lorenzcurveinrelationtopopulation(countriesorderedbypercapita COP21emissionallowancesinascendingorder)67

4.2.LorenzcurveinrelationtopercapitaGDP(countriesorderedby percapitaGDPindescendingorder)68

4.3.MarginalcostcurvesofGHGmitigationforCalifornia,EU,and Chinain203074

4.4.MacroeconomicmarginalcostcurvesforChina,EU,andCaliforniain203078

4.5.MarginalcostcurvesofGHGmitigationforCalifornia,EU,and Chinain2030(includingfueleconomystandardsinCalifornia’sMAC)80

4.6.MarginalcostcurvesofGHGmitigationforCalifornia,EU,China, andIndiain203084

5.1.Case7 105

5.2.Inequalitymapscomparingcountriesandgenerations107

5.3.Case10109

ListofTables

2.1.Impactofclimatechangeonextremepoverty35

4.1.ComparisonofAtkinsonindexbetweentheBAUscenarioandCOP21 scenario70

4.2.Correlationofkeyvariables71

4.3.Basicdata74

4.4.Economy-wideemissionstradingsimulationamongCalifornia,theEU, andChinainyear203076

4.5.Economy-wideemissionstradingsimulationamongCalifornia,theEU, andChinainyear203079

4.6.Economy-wideemissionstradingsimulationamongCalifornia,theEU, andChinainyear203082

4.7.Economy-wideemissionstradingsimulationamongCalifornia,theEU, China,andIndia(offset)inyear203085

A.4.1.UnconditionalGHGmitigationpledges,203089 5.1.Case1100

5.2.Case2101

ListofContributors

AntonioBento isaProfessorattheSolPriceSchoolofPublicPolicyandthe DepartmentofEconomicsoftheUniversityofSouthernCalifornia.Heisalsoa researchassociateoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch,andaresearchfellow oftheSchwarzeneggerInstituteforStateandGlobalPolicy.ProfessorBentoisan appliedmicroeconomistwitharesearchprogramintheareasofenvironmental, energy,urban,andpubliceconomics.Hisworkhasbeenpublishedinleadingjournals includingthe AmericanEconomicReview,the JournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsand Management,the JournalofUrbanEconomics,andthe EnergyJournal.ProfessorBento contributedtotheNewYorkStateClimateChangeActionPlan,theNewYorkState BiofuelsRoadmap,theUNScienti fi cCommitteeonProblemsoftheEnvironment, servedasacontributingauthortotheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange FifthAssessmentReport,andwasrecentlyappointedasaleadauthortotheInternationalPanelonSocialProgress.

SimonCaney isProfessorinPoliticalTheoryattheUniversityofWarwick.Heworkson issuesincontemporarypoliticalphilosophy,andfocusesinparticularonissuesof environmental,global,andintergenerationaljustice.Heiscompletingtwobooks GlobalJusticeandClimateChange (withDerekBell)and OnCosmopolitanism bothof whichareundercontractwithOxfordUniversityPress.Heistheauthorof Justice BeyondBorders (OxfordUniversityPress,2005).Heco-edited ClimateEthics:Essential Readings (OxfordUniversityPress,2010)withStephenGardiner,DaleJamieson,and HenryShue.Hispublicationshaveappearedinjournalssuchas Philosophy&Public Affairs, JournalofPoliticalPhilosophy,and Politics,EconomicsandPhilosophy.Hehasalso writtenreportsforpublicbodies,includingabackgroundpaperon ‘EthicsandClimate Change’ fortheWorldBank,andareporton ‘ClimateChange,EquityandStranded FossilFuelAssets’ forOxfamUSA.

OttmarEdenhofer isDesignatedDirectorofthePotsdamInstituteforClimateImpact ResearchandProfessorfortheEconomicsofClimateChangeattheTechnicalUniversityBerlin.Moreover,heisfoundingdirectoroftheMercatorResearchInstituteon GlobalCommonsandClimateChangeaswellasadvisertotheWorldBankregarding issuesofeconomicgrowthandclimateprotection.HeisamemberoftheGerman NationalAcademyofSciences(Leopoldina)andoftheNationalAcademyofScience andEngineering(acatech).Hehaspublishednumerousarticlesinleadingpeerreviewedjournalsandhigh-rankingdisciplinaryjournalsandauthoredvariousbooks. From2008to2015heservedasCo-ChairofWorkingGroupIIIoftheNobelLaureate IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange,shapingtheFifthAssessmentReporton

ClimateChangeMitigationsubstantially,whichhasbeenconsideredalandmark reportandprovidedthescientificbasisfortheParisAgreement.

StéphaneHallegatte istheLeadEconomistwiththeGlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR)attheWorldBank.HejoinedtheWorldBankin2012after tenyearsofacademicresearch.HewasaleadauthoroftheFifthAssessmentReportof theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.Heistheauthorofdozensofarticles publishedininternationaljournalsinmultipledisciplinesandofseveralbooks.Healso ledseveralWorldBankreportsincluding ShockWaves in2015,and Unbreakable in2016. Hewastheteamleaderforthe WorldBankGroupClimateChangeActionPlan,alarge internalcoordinationexercisetodetermineandexplainhowtheGroupwillsupport countriesintheirimplementationoftheParisAgreement.Heholdsanengineering degreefromtheÉcolePolytechnique(Paris)andaPhDineconomicsfromtheÉcoledes HautesÉtudesenSciencesSociales(Paris).

NicoleHassoun isAssociateProfessorinPhilosophyatBinghamtonUniversityanda visitingscholaratCornellUniversity.Shehaspublishedmorethanseventypapersin journalslikethe AmericanPhilosophicalQuarterly, JournalofDevelopmentEconomics, JournalofAppliedEthics, AmericanJournalofBioethics,and PhilosophyandEconomics. Her firstbook, GlobalizationandGlobalJustice:ShrinkingDistance,ExpandingObligations, waspublishedbyCambridgeUniversityPressin2012andhermanuscript GlobalHealth Impact:ExtendingAccessonEssentialMedicinesforthePoor isundercontractwithOxford UniversityPress.ProfessorHassounalsoheadstheGlobalHealthImpactproject intendedtoextendaccesstomedicinestotheglobalpoor.GlobalHealthImpact launchedattheWorldHealthOrganizationinJanuary2015.Theprojectisintended toassistpolicymakersinsettingtargetsforandevaluatingeffortstoincreaseaccessto essentialmedicines.

AndersHerlitz,PhD,isaresearcherattheInstituteforFuturesStudiesinStockholm whereheworkswithintheresearchprogram ClimateEthicsandFutureGenerations andleadstheresearchprojectGoodandJustAllocationofHealth-RelatedResources.

Dr.Herlitz’sworkprimarilyfocusesonvaluetheory,distributiveethics,andpopulationlevelbioethics.

MichaelJakob isaresearcherattheMercatorResearchInstituteonGlobalCommons andClimateChange(MCC)inBerlin.BeforejoiningtheMCC,hespentmorethan five yearsasaPhDstudentandpostdocresearcheratthePotsdamInstituteforClimate ImpactResearch.HeholdsaPhDineconomicsfromtheTechnicalUniversityofBerlin andhasobtaineddegreesinphysics,economics,andinternationalrelationsfrom universitiesinMunich,St.Gallen,andGeneva.Hisresearchinterestsincludeclimate changemitigationindevelopingcountries,thepoliticaleconomyofclimatepolicy,as wellastheinterlinkagesbetweenenvironmentalpolicyandhumanwell-being.

RaviKanbur isT.H.LeeProfessorofWorldAffairs,InternationalProfessorofApplied EconomicsandManagement,andProfessorofEconomicsatCornellUniversity.He hasservedontheseniorstaffoftheWorldBankincludingasChiefEconomistfor Africa.Hehasalsopublishedintheleadingeconomicsjournals,includingthe Journal ofPoliticalEconomy, AmericanEconomicReview, ReviewofEconomicStudies, Journalof

EconomicTheory,and EconomicJournal.HeisPresidentoftheHumanDevelopment andCapabilitiesAssociation,ChairoftheBoardofUnitedNationsUniversity-World InstituteforDevelopmentEconomicsResearch,Co-ChairoftheScientificCouncilof theInternationalPanelonSocialProgress,memberoftheOECDHighLevelExpert GroupontheMeasurementofEconomicPerformance,pastpresidentoftheSociety fortheStudyofEconomicInequality,pastmemberoftheHighLevelAdvisoryCouncil oftheClimateJusticeDialogue,andpastmemberoftheCoreGroupoftheCommissiononGlobalPoverty.

AnjaKarnein isAssociateProfessorofPhilosophyatBinghamtonUniversity(SUNY) wheresheteachespoliticalphilosophyandethics.Herprimaryresearchinterests concernquestionsofclimatejusticeandourdutiestofuturegenerations.Since2013 shehasbeeneditorofthedomain “Climate,Nature,Ethics” oftheinterdisciplinary journal WIREsClimateChange.

J.PaulKelleher isAssociateProfessorofBioethicsandPhilosophyattheUniversityof Wisconsin-Madison.Hestudiesethicalandphilosophicalaspectsofpublicpolicy, especiallyhealthpolicyandclimatechangepolicy.

UlrikeKornek receivedherPhDineconomicsfromtheTechnischeUniversitätBerlin in2015.AfterworkingatthePotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch,she currentlyholdsapositionasapost-doctoralresearcherattheMercatorResearchInstituteonGlobalCommonsandClimateChange.Herresearchinterestsareinenvironmentaleconomicswithafocusoninternationalclimatepolicyusingnumericaland analyticalmodeling.ShealsoholdsadiplomainphysicsfromtheOtto-von-Guericke UniversitätinMagdeburg,Germany.

AlexLenferna isaFulbrightScholarandPhCintheUniversityofWashingtonPhilosophyDepartment,andanEndeavourResearchFellowattheUniversityofNewSouth Wales’ PracticalJusticeInitiativeClimateJusticeResearchStream.Hisresearchfocuses onclimateethicsandhisPhDdissertationmakesamoralcaseforarapidandjust transitionawayfromfossilfuels.Alexholdsmaster’sdegreesinphilosophyfrom RhodesUniversityandtheUniversityofWashington,completingtheformerasa MandelaRhodesScholar.Hereceivedgraduatecertificatesinbothenvironmental studiesandclimatesciencefromtheUniversitiesofKansasandWashingtonrespectively.Alexhasrecentlyservedasaresearchconsultantwith350.org,afellowwith CarbonWashington,aleaderonanumberofdivestmentcampaigns,andaclimate justicestewardwiththeAllianceforJobsandCleanEnergy.Heisa first-generation SouthAfricanwhosefamilyhailsfromMauritius.

DominicLenzi isapost-doctoralresearcherattheMercatorResearchInstituteon GlobalCommonsandClimateChange,intheworkinggroupScientificAssessments, Ethics,andPublicPolicy.Heisaphilosopherworkingonethicalandpoliticalissues raisedbyclimatechangeandthesustainabilityoftheglobalcommons.Dominic’s currentresearchfocusesuponjustentitlementstonaturalresources,andtheethicsof negativeemissions.

JanMinx,PhD,isheadoftheMCCWorkingGroupAppliedSustainabilityScienceand ProfessorforClimateChangeandPublicPolicyatthePriestleyInternationalCentrefor

ClimateattheUniversityofLeeds.Hetakesaninterdisciplinaryresearchapproachto issuesofenergy,climatechange,andsustainabledevelopmentwithapplicationsto citiesandinfrastructure,globalsupplychainnetworks,aswellashistoricandfuture transformationprocessesofsocietiesandtheirgovernance.BeforejoiningtheMCC, hewasHeadoftheTechnicalSupportUnitoftheWorkingGroupon ‘Mitigationof ClimateChange’ oftheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)coordinatingtheWorkingGroup’scontributiontotheIPCC’sFifthAssessmentReport.Hehas co-authoredarticlesinscientificjournalssuchas Science, Nature, ClimateChange,and the ProceedingsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences amongothersandisamemberof theeditorialboardofthejournals EconomicSystemsResearch and CarbonBalanceand Management

JulieA.Nelson isProfessorofEconomicsattheUniversityofMassachusettsBostonand SeniorResearchFellowattheGlobalDevelopmentandEnvironmentInstituteatTufts University.Herresearchinterestsincludeecologicaleconomics,ethicsandeconomics, andfeministeconomics.Sheistheauthorofmanypublicationsincluding Economics forHumans (UniversityofChicagoPress,2ndedition,2018)andarticlesinjournals rangingfrom Econometrica and EcologicalEconomics to EconomicsandPhilosophy and Hypatia:JournalofFeministPhilosophy. SheiseditoroftheEconomicsandBusiness Ethicssectionofthe JournalofBusinessEthics,andisthe2018President-Electofthe AssociationforSocialEconomics.

JohnNolt isDistinguishedServiceProfessorintheDepartmentofPhilosophyatthe UniversityofTennesseeandaResearchFellowintheEnergyandEnvironmentalPolicy ProgramattheHowardH.BakerJr.CenterforPublicPolicy.Hismainareasofresearch arephilosophicallogic,formalvaluetheory,environmentalethics,intergenerational ethics,andclimateethics.Heistheauthororeditorofsevenbooks,threeonlogicand fouronenvironmentalethics mostrecently EnvironmentalEthicsfortheLongTerm (Routledge,2015).Noltisalong-timeenvironmentalactivistandproponentofsustainableliving,andformanyyearshechairedtheCommitteeontheCampusEnvironment,whichadvisestheChancellorattheUniversityofTennesseeoncampus environmentalpolicy.

EugenPissarskoi isamemberofthedepartmentsofEthicsandEducationandNature andSustainableDevelopmentattheInternationalCentreforEthicsintheSciencesand HumanitiesoftheEberhardKarlsUniversityofTübingen.Havingstudiedphilosophy andeconomicsattheUniversityofMannheimandtheFreeUniversityofBerlin,he receivedhisPhDfromtheInstituteforPhilosophy,FreeUniversityofBerlin,withthe thesis “ClimateChangeandSocialWelfare.” Thishasbeenpublishedas GesellschaftlicheWohlfahrtundKlimawandel (2014)withoekomverlag.From2010to2017,hewas researcherattheInstituteforEcologicalEconomyResearch,Berlin,andheworkedwith theresearchgroup “LimitsandObjectivityofScientificForeknowledge:TheCaseof EnergyOutlooks” atKarlsruheInstituteofTechnologyin2011.Inhisresearch,he mainlyfocusesondecision-makingunderuncertainty,methodologyofappliedethics, andenvironmentalethics.

MatthewRendall isLecturerinPoliticsandInternationalRelationsattheUniversityof Nottingham.Muchofhisworkhasfocusedonlarge-scalewarandpeace,including

suchtopicsastheethicsofnucleardeterrence,whetherthereisa “separatepeace” amongdemocracies,andcollectivesecurity.Hehasalong-standinginterestinRussian foreignpolicy,particularlyduringtheperiodoftheConcertofEurope(1815–54).More recentlyhehasalsobeenwritingaboutintergenerationaljustice,climatechange,and othertopicsinmoralphilosophyandpoliticaltheory.

AdamRose isaResearchProfessorintheUniversityofSouthernCalifornia(USC) SolPriceSchoolofPublicPolicy,andaFellowoftheSchwarzeneggerInstitutefor StateandGlobalPolicy.ProfessorRose’sprimaryresearchinterestistheeconomicsof disasters.Hehasspearheadedthedevelopmentofacomprehensiveeconomicconsequenceanalysisframeworkandhasdonepioneeringresearchonresilience.Hisother majorresearchareaistheeconomicsofenergyandclimatechangepolicy,wherehehas focusedontheaggregateanddistributionalimpactsofclimatemitigationpolicy, includingadvancingmethodologiesinbothcomputablegeneralequilibrium,and macroeconometricmodeling.ProfessorRoseistheauthorofseveralbooksand250 professionalpapers,includingmostrecently DefiningandMeasuringEconomicResilience fromaSocietal,EnvironmentalandSecurityPerspective (Springer), EconomicConsequence AnalysisTool (Springer),and TheEconomicsofClimateChangePolicy (EdwardElgar).He wasrecentlyelectedPresidentoftheInternationalSocietyforIntegratedRiskManagementandaFellowoftheRegionalScienceAssociationInternational.

JulieRozenberg isanEconomistwiththeWorldBankSustainableDevelopment Group.Herworkincludesgreengrowth,climatechangemitigationstrategies,climate changeadaptation,anddisasterriskmanagement.Sheisanauthorof “Decarbonizing Development:ThreeStepstoaZeroCarbonFuture” and “Shockwaves:Managingthe ImpactsofClimateChangeonPoverty.” ShefocusesonhelpingWorldBankteamsand clientstakeclimatechangeconstraintsandotherlong-termuncertaintiesintoaccount inthepreparationofprojectsandstrategies,inordertobuildresilienceinWorldBank clientcountries.SheholdsanengineeringdegreefromtheÉcoleNationaleSupérieure deTechniquesAvancéesandaPhDineconomicsfromtheÉcoledesHautesÉtudesen SciencesSocialesinParis.

HenryShue wastheco-founderoftheInstituteforPhilosophyandPublicPolicyatthe UniversityofMaryland(1976–87),theinauguralHutchinsonProfessorofEthicsand PublicLifeatCornellUniversity(1987–2002),andProfessorofInternationalRelations, UniversityofOxford(2002–7).Bestknownfor BasicRights:Subsistence,Affluence,and U.S.ForeignPolicy (Princeton,1980;2ndedition,1996),hepublishedhis firsttwo decadesofwritingsonclimatechangeas ClimateJustice:VulnerabilityandProtection (OxfordUniversityPress,2014).Hisarticlesonthemoralityofviolenceappearedas FightingHurt:RuleandExceptioninTortureandWar (OxfordUniversityPress,2016).He iscurrentlywritingaseriesofarticlesontheurgencyofactiononclimatechangein lightofdutiesofjusticetofuturegenerations.

DanWei isaResearchAssociateProfessorintheSolPriceSchoolofPublicPolicyof USC.Herresearchfocusesoneconomicmodelingofenergyandclimatechangepolicies andeconomicconsequenceofnaturalorman-madedisasters.Sheperformedmacroeconomicimpactanalysesofstateclimateactionplansforseveralmajorstatesinthe US.Shecontributedtothecapacitybuildingonmacroeconomicimpactmodelingof

climateactionplansinGuangdong,ChinaandBajaCalifornia,Mexico.Intheareaof economicsofdisasters,shemadesignificantcontributionsineconomicimpactstudies ofmajordisasterscenariosfortheUnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey.Shewasakey investigatorinanNationalScienceFoundationstudytoanalyzedynamiceconomic resilienceofbusinessestodisastersandaFederalEmergencyManagementAgency studytodevelopadisasterdeductible/creditformulaforpost-disasterpublicassistance. Sherecentlyledastudytodevelopandapplyaneconomicframeworktoevaluate resilienceinrecoveringfrommajorportdisruptions.

1 ClimateJustice:IntegratingEconomics andPhilosophy

1.1.Introduction

Climatejusticerequiressharingtheburdensandbenefitsofclimatechange anditsresolutionequitablyandfairly.Itbringstogetherjusticebetween generationsandjusticewithingenerations.Inparticularitrequiresthat attemptstoaddressjusticebetweengenerationsthroughvariousinterventionsdesignedtocurbgreenhouseemissionstodaydonotendupcreating injusticeinourtimebyhurtingthecurrentlypoorandvulnerable.More generally,issuesofdistributionandjusticeareofparamountimportanceinany discourseonclimatechange.TheUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopment Goals(SDGs)summitinSeptember2015,andtheConferenceofParties(COP) totheFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeinParisinDecember2015, broughtclimatechangeanditsdevelopmentimpact,includingclimatejustice,centerstageinglobaldiscussions.

Intherun-uptoParis,MaryRobinson,formerpresidentofIrelandand theUNSecretaryGeneral’sSpecialEnvoyforClimateChange,institutedthe ClimateJusticeDialogue.1 TheobjectivesoftheClimateJusticeDialoguewere “tomobilisepoliticalwillandcreativethinkingtoshapeanambitiousandjust internationalclimateagreementin2015.” Aspartofthisproject,theglobal HighLevelAdvisoryCommitteetotheClimateJusticeDialoguewasformedin 2013.TheCommitteeincludedformerpresidentsandotherleadersfromthe fieldsofpolitics,science,business,civilsociety,andacademia,andpublicly advocatedforclimatejusticethroughtheirownworkandviaplatforms

1 <http://www.mrfcj.org/our-work/climate-justice-dialogue/>.

facilitatedbytheMaryRobinsonFoundation.Together,theysignedthe DeclarationonClimateJustice,whichisreproducedasanAppendixtothis volume.

Twooftheacademicdisciplineswhichhaveengagedclimatechangeandits justicedimensionsareeconomicsandphilosophy.We,aneconomistanda philosopher,servedontheHighLevelAdvisoryCommitteeoftheClimate JusticeDialogue.Overthethreeyearsofourserviceonthecommittee,we notedtheoverlapandmutualenforcementbetweentheeconomicandphilosophicaldiscoursesonclimatejustice.Butwealsonotedthegreatneedfor thesestrandstocometogethertosupportthepublicandpolicydiscourse, whichdoesnot andcannotaffordto seethingsinseparatesilos.This volumeistheresult.

Inthebroadpolicyandpublicdiscourse, “climatejustice” hasnowbecome acatch-alltermfortheintersectionbetweenpatternsandpathsofclimate changeontheonehand,andtheirconsequencesfordifferentconceptions ofjusticeontheother.Therearemanydifferentformulationsofclimate change,includingtheclaimthatitdoesnotexistatall.Andthereareeven moreperspectivesonjustice,witheachconceptualizationandspecification beingdeeplycontested.Sinceclimatejusticeisattheintersectionofthese terrains,itisnotsurprisingthatitisalsoatopicwheremanyacademic disciplinesseektomaketheircontributionstoadominantpolicyissueof ourtime.Outsideofthenaturalsciences,philosophyandeconomicsaretwo disciplinescentraltotheclimatechangediscourse.

Thisvolumehascontributionsfromeconomistsandphilosopherswhoare clearlyawareof,andinfluencedby,theotherdiscipline’scontributions.In thisoverviewweattempttocharacterizethevariousapproaches,howthey overlapandinteract,andwhattheyhavealreadylearnedfromeachotherand mightstillhavetolearn.Section1.2providesabriefnarrativeoftheoverlappingperspectivesofeconomicsandphilosophyasseenthroughthechapters inthisvolume.Section1.3presentsachapterbychapteraccountofthe volume.Section1.4concludeswithatentativeexplorationofsomepathsto betterintegrationofthetwodisciplinaryapproachestoclimatejustice.

1.2.OverlappingPerspectives

Onewaytoframehowdifferentdisciplinescanengagewithclimatejustice andtheimpactofalternativepoliciesonclimatejustice,istostartwitha distinctionbetweenthepositiveandthenormative.A firststepinevaluating anypolicy,whichincludesthepolicyofdoingnothing,orcontinuingwith the “business-as-usual” scenarioofthecurrentpolicy,istolayoutallthe implicationsofthatpolicyfromnowintothefuture.Asecondstepisto

evaluatethenormativeimplicationsofalternativepolicypaths.Ofcourse thetwoarenotunrelated,becausetheeffortweputintoelucidatingand elaboratingthisorthatimplicationofapolicywilldependuponhowimportantwethinkthatimplicationisforthenormativeevaluation.

Thenaturalsciencesareparamountindevelopingtheimplicationsof anthropogenicactivitieslikegreenhousegasemissionsontheclimate.But theimplicationsofclimatechangeforhumanandnon-humanwell-being bringustothesocialsciencessinceitinvolvestheorganizationandresponse ofeconomicandsocialrelationstoclimatechange.Hereeconomicmodeling iscentralinpredictingtimepathsofincomeandothereconomicvariables througharangeofIntegratedAssessmentModels(IAMs)asseeninthefamous SternReview (Stern,2007)andmanyotherexercises.Theseexercisesare contestedonthemodeling,buttheyarethekeyinputintothenextstep,of evaluatingthetimepathgeneratedbydifferentpolicies.

ThespecificsanddetailsofIAMsappeartobethepreserveofeconomists,but itisintheevaluationofthealternativetimepathsgeneratedbythesemodels thateconomistsandphilosophersoverlapintheirperspectivesandhavemuch tolearnfromeachother,andfurtherintegrationbetweenthetwohasalotto contributetothepolicydiscourse.Thepotentialoverlaps,anddebates,canin turnbeputintotwobroadcategories:(i)evaluationwithinatimeperiodor generation;(ii)evaluationacrosstimeperiodsorgenerations.Cuttingacross theseareissuesrelatedtofocusingoneconomicoutcomesversusabroader rangeofconsiderationsgoingbeyondthenarrowlyeconomic.

Comingthentonormativeevaluationwithinatimeperiodorgeneration, onefeatureofnoteisthattheParetocriterionofeconomictextbooks,thatin comparingtwoscenariosoneispronouncedtobesuperiorifinitnooneis worseoffandatleastonepersonisbetteroffcomparedtotheother,isdifficult to findineconomicanalysesofclimatechange.Thusitisrecognizedthat therearegainersandlosersfromclimatepolicy,withingenerations(and acrossgenerations).Theusualtropethateconomicsignoresdistributionis notfoundinclimatechangeanalysis,asarguedinKanbur(2015).Anditisnot foundintheeconomicsorphilosophychaptersinthisvolume.Rather, RozenbergandHallegatte(Chapter2)projecttheconsequencesofdifferent scenariosforpovertyintheyear2030.Rose,Wei,andBento(Chapter4)assess theincomedistributionimplicationsofemissionreductionsproposalsinthe ParisAgreementaccordingtodifferentequitycriteria.Jakobetal.(Chapter3) assesstheequityimplicationsofalternativeusesoftherevenuesfromacarbon taxorotherformsoftaxationofnaturalresourcerents.PhilosophersHassoun andHerlitz(Chapter5)focusontheissueofwithin-countryandbetweencountryinequality.

Inalloftheseexercises,theinterflowandinterplaybetweeneconomics andphilosophyisstrong,whetherthecontributionisfromeconomistsor

philosophers.However,theassumptionsoftheeconomistsare “neoclassical,” withtheirmodelsbuiltonstandardrationalchoiceformulationofindividual behavior.Nelson(Chapter6),aneconomistherself,critiquestheseassumptionsasbeinginadequatecharacterizationsofindividualbehavior,makingthe pointthattheyalsorestrictpolicyoptionsavailableastheydonotallowfor moralandethicalbehavioronthepartofindividuals.Suchbehavioris exploredfurtherbyLenferna(Chapter8),whodevelopsthepositionthat therearestrongconsequentialistandnon-consequentialistargumentsfor divestmentfromfossilfuels.Karnein(Chapter7)addressestheseissuesatthe nationallevelandsuggeststhatwhenacountrysuchastheUSrefusesto complywiththeParisAgreement,itfacesothermoraldutiesasanoncomplier.

Asmightbeexpected,thetimedimension,lookingacrossgenerations,also leadstosignificantoverlapsbetweeneconomistsandphilosophers,andit alsoleadstosignificantdebates withineconomicsandwithinphilosophyas wellasbetweenthetwo.ThephilosopherCaney(Chapter9)explorestheimplicationsofthenormativeprinciplethatpolicyinanygenerationshouldbeso directedastoleavefuturepopulationsatleastaswelloffasthepresentgeneration.Ashenotes,thisisrelatedtoeconomicsNobellaureateRobertSolow’s dictumthatsustainabilityrequireseachgenerationtoleavetothenext “whateverittakestoachieveastandardoflivingatleastasgoodasourown” (Solow, 1992,p.15).ItdiffersfromLlavador,Roemer,andSilvestre’s(2015)perspective, whichaddsacommitmenttoimprovewell-beingovertime.

TheissueofdiscountingisnotafocusintheCaneyperspectivebutiscentral tomanydebatesineconomicsandphilosophy.Famously,the SternReview (2007)wascriticized,andpraised,forusingaverylowdiscountrateto evaluatethetimepathsgeneratedbyitsIAMs.Weitzman(2007)criticized thechoicebecauseactualinterestratesinthemarketplaceweremuchhigher, whichinturnraisedthequestionofwhymarketinterestratesshouldbeused fornormativeevaluation.Rendall(Chapter10)takesupthestandardreason givenineconomicsastowhythereshouldbediscountingofthefuture that withoutittherecouldbenorankingofalternativetimepathsextending toinfinity;discountingisneededtogive finitevaluessoalternativescan becompared.Rendall’sansweristosupplementdiscountingwithavoiding theriskofextinctionorpermanentimpoverishment.Aversionofasimilar perspective,centeredonhisControllabilityPrecautionaryPrinciple(CPP),is advancedbyPissarskoi(Chapter11).HearguesforinterpretingtheCPPto requirereducingCO2 concentrationstothepre-industriallevelof280parts permillion,tomostdecisivelyavoiddevastationoftheplanet.

Supplementationofadiscountedsumofbenefitsintothefuturewithother morallyrelevantconsiderationsisalsopresent,asanexpositionandacritique, inthefocusbyKelleher(Chapter12)onthestandardeconomicformulation ofevaluatingtimepathsofwell-beingasputforwardbyRamsey(1928)

whichissimplythesumofdiscountedpercapitautilitiesofeachgeneration multipliedbythenumberofpeopleinthatgeneration.Thisisclearlya utilitariansocialwelfarefunction,butKelleherfurthercharacterizesthe Ramseyapproach,whichisbasicallytheeconomistapproachasexemplified byStern(2007),asbeingonewhere

the betterness ordering...is ipsofacto a rightness ordering,wherearightnessorderingranksfeasiblepathsintermsof everything thatmatterstopolicychoice.... Manyphilosopherswillbecomfortablewith(andallphilosopherswillbefamiliar with)theidea...thatvalueconsiderationscannot bythemselves fullydetermine properchoicefromamongfeasiblepolicyoptions.Climateeconomists,inmy experience, findthisaharderideatomakesenseof.(Kelleher,Chapter12)

Oneexampleofconcernwithbroaderconsiderationsthanjustthevaluation oftimepathswouldbeafocusontheinjusticeofharmdonetohumanswho willbekilled,evenintheverydistantfuture,asaresultofchoicesabout climatechangemadenow.ThisthesisisdevelopedbyNolt(Chapter13).

Thustheoverlapsandinteractionsbetweeneconomicandphilosophical perspectivesaremanifold.Onthespectrumfrompositivetonormative analysisofpolicyoptions,economicsdominatesatthepositiveendwhile philosophicalcontributionsareprimarilyatthenormativeend,especiallyin highlightingthethinkingthroughofarangeofprinciplesforclimatejustice. Economicsreliesonthese,asseenintheassessmentoftheequityoftheParis Agreement.Buteconomistsappeartobemostcomfortablewithautilitarian frameworkofanalysis,whilephilosopherspushfurtherandharderforconsiderationofnon-consequentialistframesofevaluation.Furtherroutesto integrationwillbediscussedinSection1.4,butwenowturntoamoredetailed accountofthechaptersinthevolume.

1.3.TheVolumeChapters

WiththenarrativeframeworkofSection1.2,thissectionprovidesabrief accountofeachofthechapters.Thevolumebeginswithachapterthat initsverytitleevokesaconcernwiththedistributionalimpactofclimate change,goingagainstthestandardcharacterizationofeconomistsasbeing concernedonlywithgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)andnotwithitsdistribution.Chapter2, “PoorPeopleontheFrontLine:TheImpactsofClimate ChangeonPovertyin2030” byJulieRozenbergandStéphaneHallegatte, developsalternativescenarioswithnoclimatechangeasthebaseline.The driversofpovertyaremodeledandappliedtodataforninety-twocountries. Thesedriversincludedemography,sectoralshiftsinproduction,productivity, andeconomicgrowth,aswellasdistributionalpolicy.Intheframework

ofthismodel,twoscenarios, “prosperity” and “poverty,” arecomparedto eachother.

Intothisset-uptheythenintroducetheimpactsofclimatechangeon agriculturalincomes,disease,naturaldisasters,etc.Forexample,foodprices andagriculturalincomesarederivedfromtheglobalagriculturalmodelof Havlíketal.(2015).Formalaria,theyusetheworkofCaminadeetal.(2014), whichprovidesestimatesofmalariaincreaseduetoclimatechange.Giventhe uncertaintysurroundingthequantitativeestimatesoftheseimpacts,they considerahigh-impactandlow-impactscenario.Thisgivesthemfourcases tocompare,crossing “prosperity” and “poverty” withhighandlowclimate changeimpact.

Inthepovertyscenario,theonewheredistributionalpolicyisnotsupportiveofpovertyreduction,theyestimatethat122millionmorepeoplewillbein incomepovertyin2030withahighimpactofclimatechange,comparedwith noclimatechange.Attheotherend,intheprosperityscenariowhendistributionalpolicyissupportive,withlowimpactofclimatechangethereare threemillionmorepoorpeopleinpovertyattheendofthescenarioperiod in2030.Theauthorsemphasizethatthisrangeprimarilyreflectspolicy choices howtheimpactofclimatechangeisminimizedandhowdistributionalpoliciesworktosupportpovertyreduction.Buteventhesenumbers, althoughtheyaredisaggregatedintermsofdistribution,areglobalaggregates. TheauthorsshowthattheimpactsofclimatechangeonpovertyareparticularlysevereinAfricaandinSouthAsia,wherelevelsofpovertyare alreadyhigh.

Chapter2playsthroughthe fifteen-yearconsequencesoftheclimate changethatisalready “bakedinto” thesystembecauseofpastgreenhouseemissions.Thenexttwochaptersinthevolumeconsidertheimmediateequity implicationsofdifferentformsofemissionsreductionsthemselves,without goingintotheimplicationsofthesereductionsforclimatechangeinthefuture. MichaelJakob,OttmarEdenhofer,UlrikeKornek,DominicLenzi,andJanMinx addressthedistributionalimplicationsofmitigationinChapter3, “Governing theCommonstoPromoteGlobalJustice:ClimateChangeMitigationandRent Taxation.” Thebasicideaisthatsincereducingemissionsineffectrestrictsthe useoftheglobalcommonsoftheatmosphere,itcreatesrents.Thequestion theniswhogetstherentsandhowaretheyused?

Thus,asJakobetal.detail,theParisAgreementtolimittemperatureincrease tobelow2°Cmeansaglobalcarbonbudgetofaround40gigatonsofCO2 per year.Thiswouldrequireacarbonpriceintherangeof$40to$80perton.Such carbonpricingcouldgeneraterevenuesoftheorderof$1trillionto$10 trillionperyear,dependingonthespecificintegratedmodelused,by2040. Thisisasignificantsumofmoneyandcouldbeusedtoaddressarangeof distributionalissues,includingthenegativeconsequencesofcarbonpricing

forthepooroftoday.Jakobetal.thenillustratethecloseoverlapbetween economicsandphilosophyastheytakethereaderthroughthebasicprincipleswhichcouldguidesuchrevenuerecycling.Theypointoutthatthereis considerabledebatenotonlyonrevenuedistributionwithinastatebut redistributionacrossstates: “Incontemporaryglobaljusticedebates,thereis deepdisagreementabouttheextentofsuchredistributiveclaims.Ontheone hand,cosmopolitansarguethatrobustprinciplesofdistributivejusticeought toapplyglobally,whileminimalistsarguethatstrongerprinciplesapplywithinstates.” Theygoontodiscussthepoliticalfeasibilityandimplementation issuesofthetaxationofclimateandnaturalresourcerents.

Chapter4,byAdamRose,DanWei,andAntonioBento,isinasimilarspirit toChapter3byJakobetal.butismorecloselyrelatedtotheParisAgreement. “EquityImplicationsoftheCOP21IntendedNationallyDeterminedContributionstoReduceGreenhouseGasEmissions” looksindetailatthespecific proposalsinParisforallocatingemissionreductionsacrosscountries.They firstlookatthecountry-specificreductionpledgesandcomparethesetoa rangeofequityprinciples.Second,theyallowtradingofemissionsallowances acrosscountries.Usingamodeloftradingequilibriumtheycalculatetheprice oftheemissionsallowanceandtheactualamountofsalesandpurchasesthat wouldoccuriftradingwereallowed.Thispermitsthemtoonceagainassess theequityimplicationsoftheinitialallocation.

Afterreviewingarangeofequityprinciples,Rose,Wei,andBentofocuson (i)theegalitarianprincipleand(ii)theabilitytopayprinciple.Theyinterpret the fi rstassayingthatemissionallowancesshouldbeallocatedinproportion topopulation.Ontheotherhand,theyinterpretthesecondassayingthat emissionsreductionsshouldincreasewithpercapitaGDP.These,andother moredetailedquestions,areaddressedusingtheCOP21IntendedNationally DeterminedContributions(INDCs)toreduceemissions.Thesewereagreed toby195countries,buttranslationintoprecisequantitativemagnitudes waspossibleforonlyasubsetofthecountries.Theythenconductaseries ofexercisessuchascomparingtheLorenzcurveoftheactualINDCswith theimpliedLorenzcurveoftheegalitarianprincipleandtheabilityto payprinciple.They fi ndthattheactualINDCsrepresentsigni fi cantdeparturesfromtheseprinciplesasmeasuredbyanumberofinequalityindices. Foremissionstrading,themodelisboileddowntoarepresentationof tradingbetweenregions speci fi cally,dataareusedforChina,theEU,and California.Onceagaintheauthors fi ndthatequityprinciplesareviolated bytheParisINDCs.Indeed,althoughemissionstradingiswellunderstood toreduceglobalcostsofemissionsreductionandisthusanef fi cientpolicy topursue,theircalculationsshowthat “wealthiercountriesstandtogain amuchhigherproportionofthesavings,therebyfurtherworseningthe equityoutcome.”

TheeconomistauthorsofChapters2,3,and4buildspecificmodelsto predicttheoutcomesofvariouspolicies.Theirnormativeevaluativefocus variesbetweenindividualswithinacountry(Chapters2and3),across countries(Chapters3and4)andallindividualsintheworld(Chapter2). ThephilosophersNicoleHassounandAndersHerlitzbringtogetherthese considerationsinChapter5, “ClimateChangeandInequity:HowtoThink aboutInequitiesinDifferentDimensions.” Asismadeclearbytheeconomic modelsofChapters2,3,and4, “Climatechangeandclimatenegotiations actualizeequityconsiderationsinatleastthreerelevantdimensions:distributionsofbenefitsandburdensacrosscountries,withincountriesandacross individualsintheworld.”

Theauthorsgiveanumberofexampleswhereequitywithinnations,equity betweennations,andequityacrossallindividualsintheworldcouldmovein differentdirections.Thiscanclearlyhappeninpracticeforarangeofclimate mitigationefforts.Theythenproceedtodiscusshowthedifferenttypesof inequalitycouldbeweighedrelativetoeachother.Althoughtheydonot themselvespresentargumentsastowhytheweightsmightgoonewayor another,theyclearlyraiseanimportantsetofissuesforphilosophersto consider.Signi fi cantly,thereisanoverlapwitheconomists’ workondecomposingworldinequalityintoawithin-countriesandbetween-countries component(seeforexampleLaknerandMilanovic,2016),andtheirre fl ectionsoninter-countrydifferencesasre presentinginequalityofopportunity (Milanovic,2016).

TheeconomicmodelsofChapters2,3,and4haveastheirbasethe standard “ECON101” rationalchoicemodeloftheindividual.Thusthe emissionstradingmodeofChapter4,althoughappliedtocountries,treats themasindividualsinamarketwherepriceadjuststomatchsupplyofand demandforemissionsallowances.Implicitintheagriculturalincomemodel ofChapter2isfarmers’ rationalresponsetoclimatechange,determining pricesandincomesinagriculturalmarkets.Andalthoughtheframeworkof Chapter2admitsofexternalitiesandmarketfailuresintheallocationofthe globalcommonsthatistheatmosphere,theoveralleconomicanalysisisstill intheframeworkofconventionalwelfareeconomicswithrationalchoice individuals.ItistheseassumptionswhicharequestionedbyJulieA.Nelson, aneconomist,inChapter6, “ClimateChangeandEconomicSelf-Interest.” Nelsonprovidesacritiqueofeconomicapproachesfromtheinside,soto speak,thoughhercritiqueisfocusedmoreonthebasicmodelofchoicethat isthebreadandbutterofeconomics,whetherthismodelisappliedto individualsortonationsmodeledasindividuals.Shestartswiththeposition ofChristianaFigueres,executivesecretaryoftheUNFrameworkConvention onClimateChangeatthetimeofParis,thatnationaleconomicself-interest woulddrivenationstoagreement.WhileNelsonconcedesthat “thereissome

truthtoherargument,” sheposesthefollowingquestions: “Isherassertion aboutnational,andhuman,behaviortrue?Iseconomicself-interesttrulythe mostpowerful motivator?Isitreallythe best thingtorelyon,inoursearchfora saneandequitablesolutiontotheclimatechangecrisis?” Nelson’sanswersto thesequestionsposeachallengetotheanalyticbasisoftheeconomicmethod.

Whenanagreementleadstoaggregategainsoverallbuttherearegainers andlosersunderthataggregate,whatkeepsthelosersintheagreement? Economistsarguethat “sidepayments” fromthewinnerstotheloserswould keeptheagreement,butaseconomistswhoworkon “mechanismdesign” know,evenwiththistherewillbeincentivestocheataftertheagreementis signed.Nelsonquotesawell-knownbookbyPosnerandWeisbach(2010, p.170),whoareultimatelyforcedtocallonethicsas deusexmachina,outside their “incentivecompatibility” framework: “Buttheobligationtoachievea broad,deep,andenforceabletreatyimposesaseriousethicaldutyonrichand poornationsalike theobligationtocooperate.Inourview,itisunethicalfor anationtorefusetojoinaclimatetreatyinordertofree-rideoffofothers.”

Nelsongoesontoelaborateontheaccumulatingevidenceinpsychology andinbehavioraleconomics,thathumanbeingsdoindeedhavestrong ethicalmotivations.NelsonreferstoSen’s(1977,p.326)famousdistinction between “sympathy” and “commitment” asanearlywarningthatallwasnot wellwitheconomicorthodoxy: “Iftheknowledgeoftortureofothersmakes yousick,itisacaseofsympathy;ifitdoesnotmakeyoufeelpersonallyworse off,butyouthinkitiswrongandyouarereadytodosomethingtostopit,itis acaseofcommitment.”

Hercritiqueisdirectedateconomistswho “seemtobebelatedly ‘discovering’ thesocialnatureofhumanbeings.” TheawardofaNobelprizeineconomics toRichardThaler(2017)holdsoutthehopethattheseperspectivesmay becomemainstreamedineconomics,includingintheeconomicanalysisof climatechange.ButinmanywaysNelson’scritiqueisalsohopefulforclimate agreements.SheconcludesbyquotingChristianaFiguerestoshowthather ownmotivationswerenotfromself-interest,butfromdeepethicalroots.

Themoralbasisforactionisalsothefocusofthenexttwochaptersinthe volume.InChapter7, “Noncompliers’ Duties,” AnjaKarneinexploresthe possibilitythatthosewhohavefailedtofulfilltheirbasicresponsibilities towardclimatechange,whichincludesscoresofgovernmentsandlarge numbersofindividuals,oughttofulfillsomespecificotherresponsibilitiesas aconsequenceoftheirnoncompliance.Sincesomanyarenoncompliers,this isahighlysignificantissuethatisvirtuallyuntouchedsofarbyeitherphilosophersoreconomists.Itis,however,especiallydifficulttomakesenseof particulardutiesfornoncomplierswhentheoptionofcompliancewiththe originaldutystillremainsopen.Whywouldn’tthewholedutyofanoncompliersimplybetobecomeacomplier?

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