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ClimateChangeand ExtremeEvents ClimateChangeand ExtremeEvents Editedby AliFares
CollegeofAgricultureandHumanSciences,PrairieViewA&M University,PrairieView,TX,UnitedStates
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Contributors
VidyaAnderson
ClimateLab,DepartmentofPhysical&EnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofToronto Scarborough,Toronto,ON,Canada
RipendraAwal
CollegeofAgricultureandHumanSciences,PrairieViewA&MUniversity,PrairieView,TX, UnitedStates
MarkAnthonyAyure-IngaAgana
UniversityofArkansas,Fayetteville,AR,UnitedStates
BilalM.Ayyub
DepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,DirectoroftheCenterforTechnologyand SystemsManagement,UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark,MD,UnitedStates
PhilipB.Bedient
DepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,RiceUniversity,Houston,TX,UnitedStates
NormandE.Bergeron
InstitutNationaldelaRechercheScientifique,CentreEauTerreEnvironnement;Centre InteruniversitairedeRecherchesurleSaumonAtlantique,QuebecCity,QC,Canada
UditBhatia
IndianInstituteofTechnologyGandhinagar,Gandhinagar,India
ClaudineBoyer
InstitutNationaldelaRechercheScientifique,CentreEauTerreEnvironnement,QuebecCity, QC,Canada
DanielCaissie FisheriesandOceansCanada,Moncton,NB,Canada
RomneyB.Duffey
Private,IdahoFalls,ID,UnitedStates
ZhengN.Fang
CivilEngineering,TheUniversityofTexasatArlington,Arlington,TX,UnitedStates
AliFares
CollegeofAgricultureandHumanSciences,PrairieViewA&MUniversity,PrairieView,TX, UnitedStates
AndrewJ.Felton
DepartmentofWildlandResourcesandTheEcologyCenter,UtahStateUniversity,Logan,UT, UnitedStates
Vittorio(Victor)A.Gensini
NorthernIllinoisUniversity,DeKalb,IL,UnitedStates
WilliamA.Gough
ClimateLab;DepartmentofPhysical&EnvironmentalSciences,UniversityofToronto Scarborough,Toronto,ON,Canada
HamidehHabibi
CollegeofAgricultureandHumanSciences,PrairieViewA&MUniversity,PrairieView,TX, UnitedStates
AsifIshtiaque
SchoolforEnvironmentandSustainability,UniversityofMichigan,AnnArbor,MI,UnitedStates
NishantKamboj
IndianInstituteofTechnologyGandhinagar,Gandhinagar,India
ShahzaibKhan
IndianInstituteofTechnologyGandhinagar,Gandhinagar,India
TuDamNgocLe
FacultyofArchitecture,MienTrungUniversityofCivilEngineering,TuyHoa,PhuYen,Vietnam
DongfengLi
CivilEngineering,TheUniversityofTexasatArlington,Arlington,TX,UnitedStates
TahaB.M.J.Ouarda
InstitutNationaldelaRechercheScientifique,CentreEauTerreEnvironnement,QuebecCity,QC, Canada
AndreSt-Hilaire
InstitutNationaldelaRechercheScientifique,CentreEauTerreEnvironnement;Centre InteruniversitairedeRecherchesurleSaumonAtlantique,QuebecCity,QC,Canada
YatingZhang
CenterforTechnologyandSystemsManagement,UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark,MD, UnitesStates
EnricoZio
EnergyDepartment,PolitecnicodiMilano,Milano,Italy;MINEParisTech,PSLResearch University,CRC,SophiaAntipolis,France;EminentScholar,DepartmentofNuclearEngineering, CollegeofEngineering,KyungHeeUniversity,Seoul,RepublicofKorea
Extremeeventsandclimatechange: Amultidisciplinaryapproach 1 AliFares,HamidehHabibi,andRipendraAwal CollegeofAgricultureandHumanSciences,PrairieViewA&MUniversity,PrairieView,TX,UnitedStates
Introduction Aneventcanbeidentifiedasanextreme(weatherorclimate)whentheweatherorclimatevariable exceedsathreshold,closetotheupperorlowerendsoftheusualrangeoverapredefinedduration (Seneviratneetal.,2012).Manystudiesshowedthatfrequency,intensity,spatialextent,duration, andtimingofheavy-to-extremeeventshaveincreasedacrosstheworld,whichcouldbebecauseof globalwarming(Norouzietal.,2019; Stott,2016; Booetal.,2006).Globalwarming/climatechange effectshaveacceleratedinrecentdecades(SheffieldandWood,2011).AccordingtotheUS National ClimateAssessment,overthepast50years,thenumberandstrengthofweather-relatednatural catastrophes,suchasmajorhurricanes, heatwaves,floods,droughts,andtorrentialdownpours, have increasedintheUnitedStates(http://www.c2es.org/content/national-climate-assessment/).
Asaresultofincreasinggreenhousegasesfromanthropogenicsources(Solomonetal.,2007), significanttrendshavebeenobservedinmaximumandminimumtemperatureextremesinmanyareas acrosstheworld,whichcausefewercolddaysandnightsandmorewarmdaysandnights(HeimJr, 2015). Safeeqetal.(2013) analyzedtrendsinobservedtemperatureduring1969–2007ontheisland ofOahu,Hawaii,toevaluatethespatialandtemporalvariabilityaswellasquantifytherelationship betweenlocaltemperatureandregionalclimateindices.Theirresultsrevealedthatdespitethesubstantialspatialandtemporalvariabilityinthetemperaturetrendsontheisland,therewasa0.17 °C/decade islandwideminimumtemperatureincreaseduringthefourdecadesoftheirstudyperiod.Thecomplexityoftheissueofclimatechangeandextremeevents(Faresetal.,2014; HabibiandSeo,2018) requiresaninterdisciplinaryapproachtohelpunderstandthedifficultyoftheproblemandalsoto theinterconnectivitybetweenclimatechangeandextremeevents.Thisbookusesamultidisciplinary approachinaddressingextremeeventsunderachangingclimatebasedonanin-depthanalysisofpast andcurrentconditionsaswellasfutureoutlooks.Inaddition,itdiscussestherelationshipbetweenclimatechangeandextremeeventsandtheirimpactonseveralaspectsofhumandailyactivitiesand manifestations.
Overviewofthechapters Thebookcomprises12chapters;afterthefirstchapter,therestaregroupedintothreecomplementing sections.Thefirstsectionaddressestemperaturesandsevereconvectivestorms;thesecondsectionof thebookcontainschaptersrelatedtohydrologicalresponsesthatgiveanoverviewofthecurrent knowledgeandfutureoutlookoftherespectivetopics.Thethirdsectionofthebookcoversmitigation, adaptationmeasures,andgovernance.Thissectiondiscussesthepotentialimpactsofclimatechange andextremeeventsonecosystemresponses,lifelineinfrastructures,greeninfrastructure,andsea-level rise.Italsoreportsonhowgovernanceandpoliciesaredealingwithclimatechangeandextreme events.
Weatherparameters Thissectioncoversthreechapters. Chapter2,TemperatureExtremesinaChangingClimate,coversthe pastandprojectedhottemperatureextremesandtheirexpectedsocialandenvironmentalimpacts.Surfacetemperatureandtheoccurrencesofhotextremeshavebeenincreasingsincethepreindustrialtimes (almost140yearsago),whichcouldbetheconsequenceofglobalwarming(Seneviratneetal.,2012; IPCC(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange),2013).Anin-depthoverviewofobserved changesintemperatureanditsimpactarediscussedinthefirstpartofthechapter.Theindicesand metricscommonlyusedforevaluatingandpredictingthechangesintemperatureextremesfollowed bytheobservationaldatacollectionandanalysisarepresented.Differentregionalandglobalclimate models,aswellasintegratedanddownscalingtechniques,areoneofthemaincomponentsofunderstandingthefuture/projectedtemperatureconditionoftheearth.Thesemodelsandtechniquesarediscussedindetailinthesecondpartofthechapter.Thelastpartof Chapter2 givesusanoverviewof mitigationandadaptationstrategies(e.g.,reducinggreenhousegasemissionsandincreasingtheresilienceofinfrastructureandcriticalbuildings)appliedacrosstheUnitedStates.Themethodsforevaluationandoptimizationofthesestrategiesareintroduced,whichhelpgovernmentsandstakeholders developandimplementthebestclimateadaptationsandresiliencymeasures.
Changesinglobalairtemperatureaffectdailytemperaturesofsurfacewaterbodiessuchaslakes, streams,andriversthroughouttheyear.Oneofthevitalclimateelementsofaquaticecosystems(e.g., rivers,oceans,andseas)isthewatertemperaturebecauseitinfluencesmostprocessesaffectingwater quality,biologicalactivities,andmarinelives,forexample,fish,insects,zooplankton,andphytoplankton(Dallas,2009).Thetemperatureofsurfacewaterbodiesdeterminestheorganismsthatcantolerate suchtemperatureandthriveinsuchfreshwatersystems. Chapter3 givesanin-depthoverviewofthe mainphysicalprocessesthatdefineextremetemperaturesinthecontextofpotentialchangesresulting fromclimatechangebecauseoftheirpotentialimpactondecreasingaquaticspecies’growthanddistributions.Detailedinformationabouttemperatureextremes,theirtrends,physicalprocesses,andhow climatechangemayimpacttheseprocessesarediscussedinthischapter.
Human-causedclimatechangeisincreasingthefrequencyandstrengthoftorrentialdownpours; thesetrendsarepredictedtocontinueastheearthgetswarmer(Brooks,2013);consequently,itisnecessarytounderstandtheimpactsofclimatechangeonseverethunderstormsandtornadoes,especially thosethatproducelargehailanddamagingstraightwinds. Chapter4,SevereConvectiveStormsina ChangingClimate,summarizesthecurrentknowledgeonthistopic,someofthecriticalquestionsthat stillneedanswers,andresearchopportunitiesinthisarea.Thefirstpartofthechaptercontainsa
concisesummaryofthepresentknowledgeonthetopicfollowedbyasectionexplainingtheconducive settingsthatinducesuchoccurrencesandtheirdocumentedchangeability.Thefollowingsection coversthesignificantlarge-scaledriversoftheseeventsandtheirrelationstoclimatevariability. Thechapteralsoincludesadiscussiononclimateteleconnections(e.g.,ElNinoSouthernOscillation), whicharerecognizedfortheirinfluenceontheglobalweatherpatternsandextremeweather.Inthelast partofthechapter,theauthordiscussesthelatestresearchexaminingsevereconvectivestormsand theirrelationstoclimatechange,withexplicitattentiontotheconvection-permittingdynamicaldownscalingmethodology.Furthermore,theauthorhighlightssomeofthecutting-edgeresearchnecessary toincreasetheabilitytopredictsuchevents,lessentheirenvironmentalimpacts,andminimizetheir harmfulandadverseeffectsonhumanlivesandresources.
Hydrologicalresponses Chapter5 discussesthepatterns,mechanisms,anduncertaintiesintheresponseofterrestrialnetprimaryproductivitytoprecipitationextremes.Anin-depthoverviewofprojectedandobservedincreases inprecipitationextremesandtheirlinkstoanthropogenic-drivenatmosphericwarmingaregiveninthe introductionsectionofthechapter.Thegoalsofthechapterandtheoutlineofitsremainingcontent markthelastpartofthechapter’sintroductionsection.Thefollowingsectionenumeratessomekey examplesoftheimpactsthatprecipitationextremeshaveonecological,social,andeconomicsystems. Thehistoryofresearchandconceptualthoughtsonprecipitationextremeswithinecologyarethendiscussed.Thewovenwithinhistoryisthestandingdebateaboutwhatisan“extreme”event.Patternsand mechanismsofecosystemresponsestoprecipitationextremes,withemphasisontheirtemporalvariability,arepresentedinthemiddlesectionsofthechapter.Currentandfutureresearchneedsofforests, savannas,grasslands,deserts,andotherecosystems,includinghuman-managedecosystems,werediscussedinthelastsectionbeforethesummaryofthechapter.Thechaptersummaryhasanoverviewand keytakeaways,knowledgegaps,andpathwaysonhowtomoveforward.
FloodEarlyWarningSystems(FWS)underChangingClimateandExtremeEventsisthetitleofthe secondchapterofthehydrologicalresponsessectionofthebook.Itfocusesonsomeofthecurrentflood warningsystemsoperatingintheUnitedStatesandintroducesthebasicconceptsofaneffectiveflood warningsystem,includingrainfallmonitoringsystems.Thechapterdiscussesthemaincomponentsof atypicalFWS,including(1)raingaugenetworksandtheiroperationplatformand(2)aremotely sensedrainfallthatencompassesradarsystemssuchasNext-GenerationWeatherRadar(NEXRAD) andsatellitesystemssuchasTropicalRainfallMeasuringMission,theGlobalPrecipitationMeasurementmission,andtheGeostationaryOperationalEnvironmentalSatellitesmission.Hydrological modelingisthenextimportantcomponentoftheFWS;itusesdataofrainfallandotherparameters toinitiatefloodwarningsandestimationoftheirpotentialdamages.Itinvolveshydrologicandhydraulicsoftwarepackages.Oneofthemaintakeawaysisthatthereisaneedtoinvestinfloodwarning systemsimprovementasapartofsustainableurbandevelopmentpracticesandfloodadaptationprogramstominimizeflooddamages.
Theimpactofglobalwarming,suchasrisingsealevelsinresponsetochangingweatherpatterns,is alreadyaffectingecosystems,freshwatersupplies,andhumanhealth.Climatechangeishardtoavoid; however,reducingandpossiblystabilizingthesubstantialamountofheat-trappinggases(greenhouse gasconcentrations)releasedintotheatmospherecouldlessenitsmostdestructiveimpact (VijayaVenkataRamanetal.,2012; Kabischetal.,2016).Thiseffortisonlydealingwithclimate
changemitigation.Inrecentyears,theadaptationprocesseshavebeenconsideredasaviableoptionto reducethevulnerabilitytothepredictednegativeimpactsofclimatechange(Nyongetal.,2007).Itis morespecifictoadoptanintegratedapproachthatcombinesmitigationandadaptationstrategiesand practicestoaddressclimatechangeandassuremorereliableoutcomes(Kabischetal.,2016; Nyong etal.,2007).
Mitigation,adaptation,andgovernance Thelastsectionofthebook,mitigation,adaptation,andgovernance,containssixchapters. Chapter7, LifelineInfrastructuresandHydroclimateExtremesClimate:AFutureOutlook,isthefirstchapterof thesection.Itintroducesthecriticalgapsinknowledgeandmethodologiesofclimateandweatherextremestressorsandstressedinfrastructurelifelinesaswellasascience-basedapproachforresilient transportationnetworksunderexacerbatedstressesfromprecipitationextremesinchangingclimate scenarios.Naturalorhuman-inducedhazardsarepredictable,andbestrecoverystrategiesareadopted toensureresiliencyandrobustlifelineofagiventransportnetworkduetoadvancesinnetworkscience. Thischapterhastwomainparts.PartIdiscussesthedifferentaspectsofcharacterizingandquantifying riskstotransportationinfrastructuresfromextremeeventsandtheirassociatedmethodologies;supportingexamplesarealsoillustrated.Inthesecondpartofthechapter,anetworkedperspectiveoncritical infrastructureispresentedinthecontextofposthazardrecoveryusingtheIndianRailwaysNetwork spanning,servingthedailycommuteofthelargermetropolitanareaofMumbai,asacasestudy.
Thesecondchapterofthemitigation,adaptation,andgovernancesectionofthisbookfocuseson greeninfrastructuresandtheirroleinmitigatingextremeeventsunderpast,current,andfutureclimate changeconditions.Thedesignandimplementationofgreeninfrastructures(e.g.,greenways,parks, gardens,greenroofs,woodlands,waterways,communityfarms,forests,andwildernessareas)could reducegreenhousegasemissionsandprovidenatural-basedsolutionstofillthegapbetweenclimate changemitigationandadaptationactions.Suchinfrastructuresarepartofamultifacetedecosystemsbasedapproachandaneffectivestrategythatsupports ecosystemresilience andhumanbenefits throughecosystemservices. Chapter8 containsfourparts.Asystematicreviewofdifferenttypes andapplicationsofgreeninfrastructuresispresentedinthefirstpartofthechapter.Airpollutionremoval,temperatureregulation,carbonsequestration,andimportantecosystemservicesareincludedin thissecondpartofthechapter,whichalsodealswiththecharacteristicsandcategoriesofgreeninfrastructures.Greeninfrastructurehasmultipleenvironmentalandhealthbenefitsforcommunities,and itsapplicationcanincreasethehealthandenvironmentalequityacrosscommunitiesinthefaceofclimatechange.Healthandenvironmentalequityisthetopicofthethirdpartofthischapter.Thelastpart concentratesonthekeycharacteristicsandclassificationsofgreeninfrastructurebyfunction,inadditiontoitscategorizingnomenclature.Ifgreeninfrastructurepracticesareadoptedglobally,theycould haveapparentmitigatingeffectsonclimatechangeimpacts.However,futurestudiesarerequiredto developguidanceforcommunitiesanddecision-makerstodetermineandapplythemostsite-specific suitedgreeninfrastructures.
Adaptationtoclimateextremesandsea-levelriseincoastalcitiesofdevelopingcountriesisthe topicofthenextchapterofthissection.Itgivesanin-depthoverviewoftheresponsesofthosecities tothechallengesofsea-levelriseunderachangingclimatefacingtheirvulnerarypopulationsandtheir combinedmitigationandadaptationmeasures.Althoughadaptationtoclimatechangeandsea-level riseoptionsarecontext-based,itisessentialtoshareindividualexperiencestohelpothercitiesfind
themostsuitableadaptationpathwaysspecifictotheirconditions. Chapter9 hastwomainparts.The firstpartdiscussesthestate-of-the-artofclimatechangeadaptationinsmallandmediumcoastalcities indevelopingcountriesthroughcharacterizingcoastalexposureandimpactsofclimatechangeand examiningadaptationstrategiestothoseexposuresandimpacts.Thesecondpartdiscusseshowtoconductasynthesisofadaptationstrategiesforcoastalcities,especiallysmallandmediumtownsthathave feweradaptationcapacities.
Thecontentoftheseabove-discussedchapterssupportstheconceptthattheimpactofclimate changeismultidimensionalandhasacascadingeffect.Thesuccessofmitigationandadaptationefforts needsthesupportofmultiplepolicyactors(e.g.,individual,community,andorganization)atdifferent levelsofgovernance(i.e.,global,national,regional,andlocallevels)toparticipateinclimateadaptationandmitigationprocesses(MoserandBoykoff,2013).
Chapter10,titledMultilevelGovernanceinClimateChangeAdaptation:ConceptualClarification andFutureOutlook,concentratesonthestrengthsandlimitationsofthemultilevelgovernanceconcept anditsroleinfutureclimateadaptationandmitigationmeasuresandpractices.Thischapterprovides insightsoninteractionsamongalltheinvolvedactorsandtheirrolesindecipheringthecomplexitiesof adaptationgovernance.Despitetheneed,itisessentialtoexamineandvalidatetheusabilityofthe conceptinrelevantcontextsbeforeapplyingittoadaptationstudiesthatarediscussedafterward.Fundamentalquestionsandissuesthathavebeenaddressedthroughoutthechapterareasfollows:How manylevelsofgovernancearerequiredinclimatechangeadaptation?Shouldwefocusonthearrangementofmultilevelnetworksortheprocesses?Woulditbeallrighttoconsideronlyhorizontalorverticallevels?
Despitethelargeneedforamultiactornetworkofadaptationgovernance,onlysomeclimate changeactions(discursivelyandmaterially)havebeenobservedatlocalscales,particularly,across theUnitedStates.AlthoughtheUnitedStateshasbeenapioneerinclimatechangeresearches,it hasnotbeenactiveinwritingandimplementingpoliciesinresponsetoscientificunderstanding. Chapter11 givesanoverviewofclimatechangegovernanceintheUnitedStates,evaluatesitsactual positioninrelationtolocalClimateActionPlans(CAPs),andidentifiestheextenttowhichcitiesare engaginginGHGmitigationactivitiesusingdescriptivestatisticscomingfromacontentanalysisof cities’CAPsaswellasinterviewsoflocalclimatemanagers.Thischapterhasfourmainparts.Part1 discussesthepoliticsandpoliciesofclimatechangeintheUnitedStatesatdifferentlevelstoidentify intergovernmentalrelationstomultilevelnetworksinthecontextofclimatechangeactions.Thissectionalsodiscussesspecificfederallevelactionsthathaveenabledorhinderedclimategovernancein general.Thesecondpartgivesanoverviewofthestudiesonclimatechangegovernanceatthelocal levelandthespatialdistributionsoflocalCAPswiththelocalpoliticallandscape.Thethirdpartadvocatesfortheimportanceofunderstandingtheprevailingconditionsandfactorsthatinfluencepioneeringlocalities’innovationinclimategovernancetoimprovetheadoptionofclimatechange governanceatthelocallevel.ThelastpartofthischapterassessesthepositionoflocalCAPsin GHGemissionsreductionactionsbyanalyzingpreplanandpostplanGHGemissionsdata.Oneof thekeyfindingsisthatthenumberoflocalitiesacrosstheUnitedStatesthathavesymbolicallyjoined climateactionnetworksorsignedtheclimatemitigationagreementsismuchmorethantheonesthat implementedit.
Naturalandhuman-madedisasterscausefailuresofelectricalinfrastructuresthatwouldeventually affectmillionsofpeopleandresultinintersystemscascadingfailures(PescaroliandAlexander,2016; Zio,2016).Thusoneofthesignificantchallengesinthedesignofresilientelectricalinfrastructuresis
tounderstandthefragilityinducedbysysteminterdependenciesbecauseitcould“paralyzeentireregions,withgraveimplicationsforthenation’seconomicandsocialwell-being”(NIAC,2018).Forsuch matters,thereisasubstantialneedtoadoptanationalapproachtopreparefor,respondto,andrecover fromcatastrophicpoweroutagesaswellastoimproveourunderstandingofhowcascadingfailures acrosscriticalinfrastructureaffectrestorationandsurvival.Thelastchapterexplorespastandcurrent riskstotheelectricalpowergridduetonaturalhazardsandrecoverychallenges.Thischapterconcentratesonthedesignofanationalapproachthatincludesclearplansofmitigationandadaptationfrom catastrophicpoweroutagesandanadvancedunderstandingoftheimpactofcascadingfailuresfrom criticalinfrastructuretopowerrestorationandhumansurvival.Experiencesfrompastdisasters,along withsystemsengineeringimplications,arealsodiscussedinthischapter.
Allthetopicscoveredinthisbookhelptounderstandthecomplexityofclimatechangeandextreme eventsandtheirconnectivityandimpactonhumanlives.Thismultidisciplinaryapproach,aswellas thein-depthanalysisofpastandcurrentconditionsandfutureoutlooks,isrequiredinaddressingthe extremeeventsunderachangingclimate.
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Temperatureextremesinachanging climate 2 YatingZhanga andBilalM.Ayyubb
CenterforTechnologyandSystemsManagement,UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark,MD,UnitesStatesa DepartmentofCivilandEnvironmentalEngineering,DirectoroftheCenterforTechnologyandSystems Management,UniversityofMaryland,CollegePark,MD,UnitedStatesb
Background Temperaturechange Onaverage,theEarth’ssurfacetemperaturegrewby0.85°Coverthepast140years,whereastheland generallywarmedfastercomparedwiththeocean(IPCC(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimate Change),2013).Thecarbonemissionsfromthepreindustrialagetothepresentwillcontinuetocause changesintheclimatesystem,buttheseemissionsalonewillnotresultinglobalwarmingof1.5°Cin the21stcentury(IPCC(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange),2019).However,iftheemission patternisnotaltered,cumulativegreenhousegasescanleadtoa2.6–4.8°Cincreaseofglobaltemperaturebytheendofthe21stcentury(IPCC(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange),2013).
TheannualaveragetemperaturesacrossthecontiguousUnitedStateshaverisenby0.7–1.0°Csince thebeginningofthe20thcentury,andanadditionalincrementof2.8–4.8°Cisexpectedbytheendof the21stcenturyifnomitigationactionistaken.Extremelyhotandcoldtemperaturesarelikelyto increasemorethanaveragetemperatures,meaningwarmdayscanbehotterandcolddayscanbeless freezing.Moreover,warmdaysareprojectedtoincrease,andcolddaysareexpectedtodecreaseinthe restofthe21stcentury(Voseetal.,2017).
HeatwaveshavebecomemorefrequentinthecontiguousUnitedStatessincethemid-1960s(Vose etal.,2017).Astudyfoundthattheannualnumberofheatwavesincreasedby3,intensityroseby0.5°C, anddurationgrewby1dayfortheaverageUScityfromtheyear1961to2010.Meanwhile,heatwave seasonstarted17.5daysearlierandlasted11.5dayslonger(Habeebetal.,2015).Moreintenseheat wavesandlessintensecoldwavesareexpectedintherestofthe21stcentury(Voseetal.,2017).
Theincreaseofextremelyhottemperaturesandheatwavesisattributabletobothnaturalandanthropogenicfactors;however,thelatterhasledtoa1–3°Cincreaseofmaximumtemperaturesduring heatwavesovermostlandareas(Wehneretal.,2018).Naturalfactorreferstothechangeinsolarand volcanicactivities.Anthropogenicfactorsincludegreenhousegasemissionsresultingfromhuman activities,land-usechangeduetourbanization,andwasteheatdischarges.Carbondioxideconcentrationhasincreasedby40%sincethepreindustrialtimes,whichisprimarilyduetofossilfuelcombustion
andsecondarilyduetoland-usechange(IPCC(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange),2013; EPA(EnvironmentalProtectionAgency),2016).Methaneconcentrationhasincreasedbymorethan 100%asaresultoffarmingandproduction,transmission,anddistributionofnaturalgasandpetroleum (IPCC(IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange),2013; EPA(EnvironmentalProtectionAgency), 2016).Nitrousoxideconcentrationhasincreasedby18%mainlyduetofoodproduction(IPCC (IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange),2013; EPA(EnvironmentalProtectionAgency), 2016).Theseincreasedgreenhousegasesabsorbandre-radiateextraSun’senergythatisoriginally releasedbacktospace,heatingtheatmosphereandtheEarth’ssurfaceandchangingtheEarth’soverall climate.Also,urbanizationreplaceslarge-scalevegetationwithasphaltandconcreteroads,buildings, andotherstructures,increasingheatabsorptionandstorageinurbansurfacesduringthedaytime.This heatwarmsthesurroundingenvironment,especiallyatnight,exacerbatingheatstressonpopulations duringheatwaves.Intensehumanactivitiesreleaseconsiderableheatfromfactories,vehicles,andair conditioners,furtherelevatingurbantemperaturesinsummers.
Impactsofextremelyhottemperatures Overthelasttwodecades,extremelyhotweathercausedmorethan8000deathsintheUnitedStates (CDC(U.S.CentersforDiseaseControlandPrevention),2019).Astatisticfor43UScitiesfromthe year1987to2005suggestedthatmortalityriskmayincreaseby2.49%per1F(0.56°C)escalationof heatwaveintensityandriseby0.38%per1-dayincrementinheatwaveduration(AndersonandBell, 2011).Theelderly,children,andinfantsareparticularlysusceptibletoextremeheat,andpatientswho takemedicationsthataffectthebody’sheatregulatorysystemarealsovulnerable.
Extremelyhotweatherintensifiescoolingenergydemandsandincreaseselectricalloadson powersystems.Itwasfoundthat1°Coftemperatureincrementthatstartsfrom18°Ccanresultin 0.45%–4.6%riseofpeakelectricityloadand0.5%–8.5%growthoftotalelectricitydemand,dependent onbuildingcharacteristics,climatezones,urbanmorphologies,andthetypeofenergyservicesprovided,suchasfansorairconditioners(Santamourisetal.,2015).Moreover,thecapacityandefficiency ofpowersystemsingenerating,transmitting,anddistributingelectricitydecreaseunderhotweather conditions,andthustheriskofpoweroutagesmayincreaseindenseurbanareas.
Extremehotweathercancauseasphaltmelting,concretehogging,andmalfunctionofsignaling equipment.Modernrailinfrastructureisparticularlyvulnerablebecauserailroadtracksarewelded toformacontinuousrailthatistypicallyseveralkilometerslong.Whensuchtracksexpanddueto intenseheatstress,bucklingmayoccuratspotsofweakness.Moreover,inpassengertrains,airconditioningunitsaretypicallydesignedtooperateunder38°C,andtemperaturesabove38°Ccanresultin electronicfaultandseriousdamagestoelectronicunits.Thisisthemainreasonfortraincancellation duringextremelyhotdays.
Extremehotweathercandeteriorateoutdoorairqualitybecausehightemperaturesandabundant sunshinecanspeeduptherateofchemicalreactions,whichpropelstheformationofozoneandfine particulatematters.Ozoneintheupperatmosphereplaysakeyroleinblockingharmfulsolarradiation, whereasozoneinthegroundlevelimpairshumanhealth.Duringheatwaves,atmosphericpressureis relativelyhigh,whichcanconstrainairconvectionandhinderthedissipationofpollutants,resultingin adangerouslyhigh-levelconcentrationofozoneandfineparticulatematters.
Temperatureextremeanalysisandprojection Metricsandindices TheExpertTeamonClimateChangeDetectionandIndiceshasdefinedasetofextremeindicesfor evaluatingandpredictingthechangeoftemperatureextremes,asshownin Table1.Theseindiceshave beenwidelyusedinclimatestudiessuchasthefifthIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange (IPCC)report.
Observationalanalysis Collectingobservationdatafortheatmosphere,ocean,andland-basedsystemsisessentialforscientists tounderstandanddescribetheconditionsofourclimatesystem.Thereareover11,000weatherstations aroundtheworld,whichmeasureandmonitorlandandatmosphericconditions.Dailyweatherrecords fromobservingstationsintheUnitedStatesareaccessiblefromtheNationalCentersforEnvironmental Information(https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datatools/findstation).Satellites,ships,andaircraft areadditionalapproachesfordatacollection.TheUSNationalOceanandAtmosphericAdministration operatesaconstellationofgeostationaryandpolar-orbitingsatellitestocollectcontinuousglobalenvironmentalobservations,includingprecipitation,seasurfacetemperature,atmospherictemperatureand humidity,seaiceextent,andglobalvegetation.ThesedataarearchivedintheComprehensiveLarge Array-DataStewardshipSystem(https://www.avl.class.noaa.gov/saa/products/catSearch).
TheUKMetOfficeHadleyCenterhasproducedarangeofobservationdatasetsbasedondaily weatherdatacollectedfromthousandsofstationsoversixcontinents.TheHadEXdatasethasbeen updatedtwicetoincludeamoresignificantnumberofstationsandindicesandtocoveramoreextended
Table1Extremetemperatureindices.
IndicesDescription
Usage
TNThecoldestdayofayear,season,ormonth Extremeprojection
TXThehottestdayofayear,season,ormonth Extremeprojection
FDThenumberofdayswhenTNisbelow0°C Impactstudy
FRThenumberofdayswhenTNisabove20°C Impactstudy
TN10pTheexceedancerateofdayswhereTNisbelowthe10thpercentileColdnightprobability estimation
TX10pTheexceedancerateofdayswhereTXisbelowthe10thpercentileColddayprobability estimation
TN90pTheexceedancerateofdayswhereTNisabovethe90thpercentileWarmnightprobability estimation
TX90pTheexceedancerateofdayswhereTNisbelowthe10thpercentileWarmdayprobability estimation
WSDIThenumberofdaysinayearwhenTXisabovethe90thpercentilefor 6consecutivedaysorlonger Heatwaveprojection
CSDIThenumberofdaysinayearwhenTXisbelowthe10thpercentilefor 6consecutivedaysorlonger Coldwaveprojection
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G .—E . Gould. Rostrum capitis longitudine seu longius, fere rectum, ad apicem deorsum curvatum, haud emarginatum; naribus parvis, basalibus, oblongis, in sulco positis; Alæ breves, remigibus primariis secundariisque fere æqualibus, plumis 4, 5, 6-que subæqualibus longissimisque; Cauda mediocris apice rotundato; Tarsi sublongi anticè squamis ferè obsoletis induti, halluce digito medio breviore, digitis lateralibus inæqualibus, internis brevioribus.
E . Gould. P XXI.
E. fuscus, remigibus cinereo fusco marginatis, striâ superciliari pone oculos extensâ cinereo-albâ; caudâ nigro-fuscâ basi castaneo fuscâ; gulâ abdomineque medio cinereo albis; hypochondriis tectricibusque caudalibus inferioribus pallide flavescentibus.
Long. tot. 6⁹⁄₁₂ unc.; rost. 1; alæ, 2⁹₁₂; caudæ, 3; tarsi, ⁹₁₂.
Head and all the upper surface brown; the primaries margined with greyish brown; stripe over and behind the eye greyish white; tail feathers chestnut brown at the base, and blackish brown for the remainder of their length; throat and centre of the abdomen greyish white, passing into pale buff on the flanks and under tailcoverts; bill and feet blackish brown.
Habitat, Patagonia.
This bird, though forming a well-marked genus, is in many respects, even in plumage, allied to Furnarius and Opetiorhynchus,— for instance, in the streak over its eyes, in the red band on its wings extending obliquely from the body to the third primary, and to some of the species of these genera in its rather plumose feathers. In its general manners, the same resemblance, together with some differences, always struck me. It lives entirely on the ground, and generally in dry sterile situations, where it haunts the scattered thickets, and often flies from one to another. When skulking about the bushes it cocks up its tail, imitating in this respect Pteroptochos and Rhinomya. Its cry is shrill, quickly reiterated, and very similar to that of several species of Furnarius and Opetiorhynchus. The stomach of one which I opened was full of Coleoptera. I procured specimens from three places on the coast of Patagonia; namely, Port Desire, St. Julian, and Santa Cruz; but it is nowhere common. I likewise saw it at a considerable elevation in the eastern valleys of the barren Cordillera, near Mendoza.
R . Is. Geoffr. & D’Orb. Rhinomya lanceolata. Is. Geoffr. & D’Orb. Voy. de l’Amer. Mer. pl. 7. f. 1. 1832, cl. 11. pl. 3. id. Mag. de Zool. 1832, 11. pl. 3. and 1837, p. 15.
I procured a specimen of this bird from the Rio Negro in Northern Patagonia, and I never saw one any where else; and M. D’Orbigny makes the same remark. On the Atlantic side of the continent, it replaces the several species of Pteroptochos which live on the shores of the Pacific. Its habits, in some respects, are similar; it lives at the bottom of hedges or thickets, where it runs with such quickness, that it might easily be mistaken for a rat. It is very unwilling to take flight, so that, I was assured by some of the inhabitants, that it could not fly, which, however, is a mistake. It frequently utters a loud and very singular cry. The Rhinomya is distantly allied to the Eremobius phœnicurus, which is found in Southern Patagonia, whose habits in some respects are similar.
1. P T . G. R. Gray. Hylactes Tarnii. Vigors, Proc. Zool. 1830.
Megalonyx ruficeps. D’Orb. & Lafr. Mag. de Zool. 1837. p. 15.
Leptonyx Tarnii. D Orb. & Lafr. Voy. de l’Amer. Mer. Av. p. 198, pl. viii. f. 1.
This species, as well as several others of the genus, and likewise of Scytalopus are confined to the west coast of South America. The P. Tarnii ranges from the neighbourhood of Concepcion, lat. 37°, to south of the Peninsula of Tres Montes, between 41° and 50°. It is not found in Tierra del Fuego, where the climate probably is too cold for it, for in other respects, the great forests of that country appear admirably adapted to its habits. Its limit, northward of the province of Concepcion, is evidently due to the change which there takes place, from dense forests to an open and dry country. The P. Tarnii is abundant in all parts of the Island of Chiloe, where it is called by the native Indians, guid-guid; but by the English sailors, the barkingbird. This latter name is very well applied, for the noise which it utters is precisely like the yelping of a small dog. When a person is walking along a pathway within the forest, or on the sea beach, he will often be surprised to hear on a sudden, close by him, the barking of the guid-guid. He may often watch in vain the thicket, whence the sound proceeds, in hopes of seeing its author, and if he endeavour, by beating the bushes, to drive it out, his chance of success will be still smaller. At other times, by standing quietly within the forest, the guid-guid will fearlessly hop close to him, and will stand on the trunk of some dead tree, with its tail erect, and strange figure full in view. It feeds exclusively on the ground, in the thickest and most entangled parts of the forest. It rarely takes wing, and then only for short distances. It has the power of hopping quickly and with great vigour; when thus awkwardly proceeding, it carries its short tail in a nearly erect position. I was informed that the guid-guid, builds a nest amongst rotten sticks, close to the ground.
2. P