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PROCESSSAFETY ANDBIGDATA

PROCESSSAFETY ANDBIGDATA

SAGITVALEEV

DepartmentofComputerScienceandRobotics, UfaStateAviationTechnicalUniversity,Ufa,Russia FacultyofEcologyandEngineering,SochiStateUniversity, Sochi,Russia

NATALYAKONDRATYEVA

DepartmentofComputerScienceandRobotics, UfaStateAviationTechnicalUniversity,Ufa,Russia FacultyofEcologyandEngineering,SochiStateUniversity, Sochi,Russia

Elsevier

Radarweg29,POBox211,1000AEAmsterdam,Netherlands TheBoulevard,LangfordLane,Kidlington,OxfordOX51GB,UnitedKingdom 50HampshireStreet,5thFloor,Cambridge,MA02139,UnitedStates

Copyright©2021ElsevierInc.Allrightsreserved.

Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic ormechanical,includingphotocopying,recording,oranyinformationstorageandretrievalsystem, withoutpermissioninwritingfromthepublisher.Detailsonhowtoseekpermission,further informationaboutthePublisher’spermissionspoliciesandourarrangementswithorganizationssuch astheCopyrightClearanceCenterandtheCopyrightLicensingAgency,canbefoundatourwebsite: www.elsevier.com/permissions

Thisbookandtheindividualcontributionscontainedinitareprotectedundercopyrightbythe Publisher(otherthanasmaybenotedherein).

Notices

Knowledgeandbestpracticeinthisfieldareconstantlychanging.Asnewresearchandexperience broadenourunderstanding,changesinresearchmethods,professionalpractices,ormedical treatmentmaybecomenecessary.

Practitionersandresearchersmustalwaysrelyontheirownexperienceandknowledgeinevaluating andusinganyinformation,methods,compounds,orexperimentsdescribedherein.Inusingsuch informationormethodstheyshouldbemindfuloftheirownsafetyandthesafetyofothers,including partiesforwhomtheyhaveaprofessionalresponsibility.

Tothefullestextentofthelaw,neitherthePublishernortheauthors,contributors,oreditors,assume anyliabilityforanyinjuryand/ordamagetopersonsorpropertyasamatterofproductsliability, negligenceorotherwise,orfromanyuseoroperationofanymethods,products,instructions,orideas containedinthematerialherein.

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ISBN:978-0-12-822066-5

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Preface

Bigdataandprocesssafetyisanewinterdisciplinaryfieldthathasformedat theintersectionofinformationtechnology,managementandcontroltheory,andproductionsafetymanagement.

Thesuccessfulapplicationofbigdatatechnologiesinthefieldofprocess safetyisbasedontheknowledgeandcompetenciesofpersonnelinthefield oflargesystemsmanagementandcontrol,aswellashardwareandsoftware systemdevelopersandtechnologists.

Aboutthebook

ProcessSafetyandBigData discussestheprinciplesofprocesssafetyand advancedinformationtechnologies.Itexplainshowtheseareappliedto theprocessindustryandprovidesexamplesofapplicationsinprocesssafety controlanddecisionsupportsystems.

Thisbookhelpstoaddressproblemsfacedbyresearchersinindustrythat aretheresultofincreasedprocesscomplexity,andthathaveanimpacton safetyissues,whichhavealsobecomemoreandmorecomplex.Thebook presentswaystotacklethesesafetyissuesbyimplementingmoderninformationtechnologies,suchasbigdataanalysisandartificialintelligence.Itprovidesanintegratedapproachtomoderninformationtechnologiesusedin thecontrolandmanagementofprocesssafetyinindustry.

Bookfeatures

•Pavesthewayforthedigitaltransformationofsafetyscienceandsafety management

•Takesasystemapproachtoadvancedinformationtechnologiesusedin processsafety

•Providesexamplesofhowartificialintelligenceisappliedinthecontextualizationofthedatastreamsthataremonitoredtoimprovesafety performance

•Appliesbigdatatechnologiestoprocesssafety

Audience

Thebookisprimarilyintendedforresearchersfromacademiaandindustry, whoareworkingonprocesssafetysystems.

Thebookcanalsobeusedatthegraduateoradvancedundergraduate levelasatextbookforcoursessuchasprocesssafety,controlsystems, computationalscience,andmanyothers.

Organizationofthebook

Thisbookconsistsofsevenchapters.

1. Large-ScaleInfrastructuresandProcessSafety

2. RiskandProcessSafetyStandards

3. Measurements,Sensors,andLarge-ScaleInfrastructures

4. DatabasesandBigDataTechnologies

5. SimulationTechnologiesforProcessSafety

6. BigDataAnalyticsandProcessSafety

7. RiskControlandProcessSafetyManagementSystems

Acknowledgments

Astheauthors,wehopethatthebookwillstimulatefurtherresearchin processsafetyprovision,andapplytheresultsoftheresearchinrealworld applications.Wehopesincerelythatthisbook,coveringsomanydifferent topics,willbeveryusefulforallreaders.

TheauthorsaregratefultoAnitaKoch,Elsevier’sAcquisitionEditor, andthewholebook’sproductionteamatElsevierfortheircooperation, help,patience,andcourtesy.

SagitValeev NatalyaKondratyeva

CHAPTER1

Large-scaleinfrastructuresand processsafety

1.1Introductiontosystemapproach

Tounderstandtheproblemofprocesssafetymanagementtominimizerisks usingbigdatatechnologies,weneedtorecalltheconceptsusedinsystem analysistheory.Thebasicdefinitionofsystemanalysisisthedefinitionof theconceptofasystem.Therearemanydefinitions,andtheyreflectthe featuresofaparticularproblemsolvedintheframeworkofsystemanalysis. Inthecontextofourtasks,theelementsandrelationshipsbetweenthatform thesystemareimportant.Thus,asystemisagroupofinteractingorinterconnectedobjectsthatformasinglewhole(System,2020).

Anysystemhasitsmaingoal.Inourcase,theprocesssafetymanagement systemshouldprovideagivenlevelofsafety.Entities(elements)ofthesystemcanhavetheirowngoals,usedbythesystemtoachieveitsowngoal.

Thegoalsoftheelementsareformedbasedonthepurposeofthesystem.

Todothis,adecompositionofthegoalsofthesystemisperformed,andthe elementsandrelationshipsbetweenthemtoachievethemaredetermined.

Thepropertyofasystemtoformitsgoalbasedonthegoalsoftheelementsisdeterminedandmaintainedwithintheframeworkoftheconceptof thelifecycleofsystems:

•Atthestageofsystemdesign,theelementsofthesystemaredetermined andtherelationshipsbetweenthemaredescribed.

•Atthestageoffunctioningofthesystem,theoperabilityoftheelements ismaintainedandthequalityoftheconnectionsbetweentheelementsis controlled.

•Atthedisposalstage,elementsareidentifiedthatcanbereusedor recycled.Ifthisisnotpossible,thentheelementscanbeburiedor destroyedintheexternalspecializedsystem.

Thesystemarchitectureonthedesigningstagecanbepresentedintheform ofsubsystemsandlinksbetweenthem.

Thepurposeoftechnologicalprocessesinourcaseistheconversionof rawmaterialsintoafinalorintermediateproduct.Thatiswhytheycanbe

attributedtotheelementsoftheproductionsystemofthefinalproduct. Modernproductionsystemsaredefinedbytheirspatialboundariesandtechnologicalprocessesbytemporaryboundaries.Anysystemfunctionin anothersystemsurroundingit—forexample,theenvironment—influences ourproductionsystemandbyitselfisunderproductionsysteminfluence.

Insomecasesasystemcanbedescribedthroughthedescriptionsofits elementsandtherelationshipsbetweenthem,aswellasthroughthedescriptionsofthefunctionsitperforms.

Notethatthesystemhaspropertiesthatarenotinherentinitselements. Thisistheso-calledsynergisticeffect.

Whenclassifyingsystems,attentionispaidtointeractionwithothersystems.Ifthereisanactiveexchangeofrawmaterials,energy,orinformation withothersystems,thentheyareclassifiedasopensystems.

Anexampleofanopensystemisamodernpetrochemicalenterprise,in whichoilproductscomingfromoutsideareprocessedintothefinalproduct, andelectricitycomingfromthepowersystemisspentontechnologicalprocesses.Closedsystemsdonotexchangeenergywiththeenvironment (anothersystem).

Whendescribingsystems,afunctionalapproachisused(describingthe systemasablackbox),whenonlyitsinputvariablesandoutputvariablesare specifiedforitsdescription.Thefunctionofconvertinginputvariablesto outputdatacanbepresentedintheformofadescriptionofitsproperties, withoutrevealingthedetailsofitsimplementation.Thisapproachdoes notallowdecomposingacomplexsystemintosubsystems,butcanfacilitate itsanalysisandmodelingusingvariousmethodsofthetheoryofidentificationofsystems.

1.2Large-scaleinfrastructures

Industrialinfrastructuresarelocatedonlandorinwater,someofthemcan shifttheirlocation,andallofthemhaveanumberoftypicalfeaturesthat characterizethemasaspecialclassofcomplexsystems.Theirfeatures includethefactthattheyoccupyalargeareaandvolume,andtheirorganizationalstructureincludesmanyinterconnectedcomplextechnicalobjects. Thefunctioningofthelarge-scaleinfrastructureissupportedbyalarge groupofpeopleorganizedhierarchically.Allofthemhavedifferentqualificationsandprofessionalknowledge.

Largeindustrialinfrastructuresarestudiedandresearchedinvariousfields ofscienceandusingdifferentapproaches:

•Systemsapproach.Inthisarea,welookatsystemicpatternsthat,among otherthings,affectprocesssafetyfeatures(Leveson,2016).

•Integratedadaptivesystemsapproach.Wearelookingforsolutionsto theproblemsofadaptingthecontrolandmanagementsystemtaking intoaccountchangesinthesystem(Curry,Beaver,&Dagli,2018).

•Cyber-physicalsystemsapproach.Here,whenanalyzingandstudying thepropertiesofasystem,thefeaturesofinformationexchangebetween subsystemsandtheoptimizationoftheseprocessesbasedoncomputer networksaretakenintoaccount(Li,2016).

Anotherfeatureoflargeinfrastructuresisthattheyusealargeamountof electricity,orothertypesofenergysources.Therefore,thereisanurgent requirementtooptimizetheprocessesofenergyconsumptionandthe useofalternativeenergysources(Brennan,2012).

Onemorefeatureoflarge-scaleinfrastructureistheapplicationofmoderncomputersystemsforcontroloftechnologicalprocessandprovisionof efficientmanagementprocedures.

Dependingonthepurposeandneedforaccesstotheresources,infrastructuresarelocatedinhard-to-reachplaces,or,conversely,nearmegacities,iftheiroperationrequirestheparticipationofalargenumberof people.

Infrastructureisoftenaffectedbyvariousfactorsrelatedtocomplexclimateconditions.Forexample,oilplatformsintheArcticareexposedto lowtemperaturesandgale-forcewinds.Oneofthemaincharacteristics ofindustrialinfrastructuresisthattheyalmostalwaysposeapotentialrisk tothepersonnelworkingonthem, aswellastothepeoplewholive nearthem.

Unfortunately,therearemanyexamplesofthesehazardsevents (Sanders,2015).

Dependingonthecharacteristicsoftechnologicalprocessesinindustrial infrastructures,iftherulesforperformingtechnologicalprocessesareviolated,aswellastherulesformaintainingtechnologicalinstallationsthey can(andunfortunatelydo)causesignificantdamagetotheenvironment (Nriagu,2011).

Let’slookatexamplesofindustrieswherelargeinfrastructurefacilitiesare operated.

Petrochemicalenterprises.Productionandprocessingofoilandgasareassociatedwithcomplexandexpensivetechnologicalprocesses.Oil-producing landandseasystemsareusedtoimplementtheseprocesses.Processingof hydrocarbonrawmaterialsisimplementedatpetrochemicalenterprises.

Transportationofpetroleumproductsiscarriedoutusingpipelinesandvarioustypesoflandtransportandwatertransport.

Energysector.Petrochemistryiscloselyrelatedtotheelectricpower industry,astechnologicalprocessesrequiretheuseoflargeamountsofelectricity.Theobjectsoftheenergyindustryincludehydroelectricpowerstations,nuclearpowerplants,andreservoirsystems.Inturn,powerplantsuse naturalgasandotherhydrocarbonstogenerateelectricity.

Transportindustry. Thisincludestheaviation,railway,andautomobile industries.Theseindustries,inturn, includeairports,trainstations,bridges,roads,andriverandseaports.Thetransportindustryisoneofthemain consumersofvarioustypesoffuel: kerosene,gasoline,fueloil,and lubricants.

Industrialbranch. Consumersofpetrochemicalproductsarevarious industrialenterprisesthatproduceavarietyofhigh-techproducts,suchas cars,tires,dishes,etc.Industryisalsoaconsumeroflargeamountsofelectricity.Thedatacollection,storage,andtransmissionindustrybasedon computer-aidedinformationprocessingconsumessignificantenergy resources.Datacentersoflargecompaniesuseelectricitytocooltheirclusters,whichgenerateheatduringdataprocessing.

Weshallnowlookfurtheratvariousinfrastructureobjectsthatarethe partsoflargeindustrialinfrastructures.

1.2.1Drillingrig

Adrillingrigisacomplexmechanicalsystemthatrequiresconsiderable effortfromateamofspecialiststoinstall,maintain,anddismantleit.When performingtechnologicalprocesses,itisnecessarytocomplywithsafety rules,sincethetechnicalprocessesofdrillingoperations,installationofdrillingcolumnelements,anddeliveryofdownholeequipmentelementsare associatedwiththemovementofmechanicalstructuresoflargeweight andincludevariousmanualoperations.Amoderndrillingrigcanbeclassifiedasacomplexmechatronicsystem.Itcancontainaroboticsystemfor changingandinstallingcasingpipes,anautomatedwinch,etc.Tocontrol themanipulator,ahybridcontrolsystemisused,includinganautomatic controlsystemandcontrolbasedonoperatorcommands.Thepersonnel servingthedrillingrigmaynumbermorethan30.Sincethedrillingprocess isusuallyacontinuousprocess,theworkisperformedinshifts.Puttingawell intooperationcantakeuptoayear.Thistimedependslargelyonthetypeof wellbore.

Tomonitorthestatusofallsubsystemsofthedrillingrig,thefollowing datasourcesareused:pressuresensors,speedsensors,drillpositionsensors, temperaturesensors,andvariousactuators—electricmotors,motors,pneumaticautomationsystems,valves,etc. Fig.1.1 showsamoderndrillingrig anditssimplifiedschemeandmaintypesofhazards.

Themostdangeroussubstancesforteamonthedrillingrigincludeformationgas,hydrogensulfide,anddieselfuel.Emergenciesarerelatedto electricalequipment,cablebreakage,andgasreleasefromthewell,and destructionoftheunit’sstructuresduetocorrosionandfatiguestresses.

1.2.2Oiloffshoreplatform

Anoffshoreoilplatformfortheextractionorprocessingofhydrocarbons operatesunderextremeclimaticconditionsandtheimpactofdynamicloads onitsstructure.Thisisduetohighhumidity,exposuretosolarradiationand strongwind,seawater,andwaves.Inadditiontotheusualsubsystemsforan oilrig,itincludessubsystemsforensuringthesafetyofinfrastructurefrom theinfluenceofseaconditions,communications,andrescuevehicles (Khan&Abbassi,2018). Fig.1.2 showsanoffshoreoilproductionplatform thatincludesaplatform,logisticssupportsystems,adrillingrig,andalife supportsystem.

Theoperationoftheoilplatformisassociatedwithvarioushazards, whichmaycauseemergencysituations,withlossofperformanceandwith threattothelifeofpersonnel.Themaintypesofhazardsarepresentedin Fig.1.2.

Fig.1.1 Modernrigandmaintypesofhazards.

1.2.3Tankerfortransportationofliquefiedgas

Mostoftheoilandgasfieldsareremotefromtheplacesoftheirprocessing andconsumptionofmarketableoilandgasproducts.Oilpreparedattheoil fieldistransportedtotherefinerybypipeline,rail,orwater(seaandriver). Themaintypesofhazardsforapipelinearecausedbydamagetometalconstructionthroughthecorrosionprocesses.

Liquefiedgasistransportedonaspecializedtanker.Thetankerincludes thefollowingmainsubsystems:liquefiedgasstoragesystems,thevesselsfor transportinggasstoragefacilities,andsystemsformaintainingoptimalcharacteristicsofliquefiedgas.Transportationofliquefiedgasisrelativelydangerous(Mokhatab,Mak,Valappil,&Wood,2014). Fig.1.3 showsatanker transportingliquefiedgasandeventsthatcanleadtohazardoussituations.

Whentransportingvarioustypesoffuelbylandvehicles,specially equippedrailwaytanksorcartransportsystemsareused(see Fig.1.4). Thetransportationoftheseproductsrequiresenhancedsecuritymeasures andisassociatedwithhighrisksofcriticalsituations.

Tomaintaintheworkingpressureinthepipeline,gaspumpingsystems areused,andmaybeequippedwithgasturbineunits.Onmaingaspipelines, compressorstationsareequippedwithcentrifugalcompressorswithagas

Fig.1.2 Offshoreoilrigandeventshazardclassification.

turbinedriveoranelectricdrive.Herehazardsincludefiresandexplosions (Mokhatab,Poe,&Mak,2015).

Gaspipelinescanalsobelaidalongthebottomofthesea;thepipeline copiestheprofileoftheseabed,bendingunderitsownweight.Inorder toensurereliableoperationofamoderngaspipeline,tomonitorthepressureintheunderwaterpartofthegaspipelineandthegasvelocityinit,and tolocalizeanemergencygasleakquickly,parallelinstallationoffiberoptic cableispossible.

Fig.1.3 Transportationofliquefiednaturalgas.
Fig.1.4 Trucksareusedforthetransportationofdieselandpetrol/gas/gasoline/benzin.

Tocontrolthestateofthepipeline,monitoringsystemsareused,which includealargenumberofdifferentdevicesformeasuringthestateofpipeline elements.Themainhazardsincludeexplosions,fires,andleaksof toxicgases.

1.2.4Petrochemicalproduction

Oilandgasprocessingareperformedatapetrochemicalplant.Thepetrochemicalplantcontainsasufficientlylargenumberofoilprocessingunits connectedbyasingletechnologicalcycle.Themainhazardsarefires,explosions,leaksoftoxicmaterials,thecomplexityofpersonnelevacuation,and largedamagetotheenvironment(Sanders,2015).

Petroleumproductsarestoredinoilstoragefacilitiesthatincludetransportinfrastructure,apipelinesystem,manylandtankers,andfiresafetysystems.Themainhazardstopersonnelandresidentsofcitiesareleaksoftoxic substancesandoilproductsenteringtheenvironment. Fig.1.5 showsadiagramoftheprimaryoiltreatmentunitandthemaintypesofhazards.

Thevariouspumpingsystems,shut-offvalves,andprocessmonitoring devicesareusedforpumpingpetrochemicalproducts.Thepetrochemical companycanincludepowersupplysystemsandby-productrecyclingsystems(Mannan,2013).

Fig.1.5 Primaryoilrefiningunit.

1.2.5Industrialenterprise

Petrochemicalproductssuchasgas,gasoline,plastics,etc.areusedinvarious industries:metallurgy,transportsystems,andpowergenerationatpower plants.Themaintypesofhazardsarefires,explosions,leaksoftoxicsubstances,damagetotheenvironment,andthedifficultyofevacuating personnel.

Inmodernindustrialenterprises,variousproductsareobtainedfromthe productsofoilrefineries.Technologicalprocessesarebasedonapplication ofdifferentindustrialunits.Theycanincludegasflaringequipment,awaste storagesystem,andaproductionwastedisposalsystem.Themaintypesof hazardstopersonnelandtheenvironmentarerelatedtothetoxicityof appliedmaterialsandpossibleemissionsofhazardoussubstancesduringtheir disposal.

1.2.6Monitoringanddatacollectionsystems

Monitoringanddatacollectionsystemsallowustomeasurethestateofthe characteristicsoftechnologicalprocesses.Thefeaturesofindustrialmeasuringsystemsarehighrequirementsfortheiraccuracyandreliability.Tocollectandtransmitdata,controllers,computers,andlocalareanetworksofthe enterpriseareused.

Forexample,firesafetysystemsareautomatedsystemsandinclude smokedetectors,heatdetectors,andfiredetectors.Intheeventofasource ofignitionusingsensors,itispossibletolocalizethesourceandsendanalarm tothecontrolcenter.Infiresafetysystems,itispossibletosuppressthe sourceofignitionusingfireextinguishingmeans.Firesafetymeansinclude sprinklers,automaticventilationsystems,automaticsystemsforblocking accesstotheroom,andsystemsofstopvalves.Alltheseelementsareused tocontrolfirepumpsandtosupplysubstancesforextinguishingfires (Fig.1.6).

Industrialplantsmonitortheenvironment.Specialequipmentestimates airqualityandthelevelofemissionsofharmfulsubstances.Tomonitorthe stateoftheenvironment(forexample,toanalyzewaterquality),distributed measuringsystemsbasedonmoderntelecommunicationsystemsareused. Thesesystemscanmeasurethestateofwaterinapipelinebyprocessing andtransmittingdataonitsquality.Solarpanelsareusedassourcesofelectricityforthemeasurementsystem.

Industrialcontrollersareusedfortechnologicalprocesses,managedby supervisorycontrolanddataacquisitionsystems(SCADAs).Information

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which the matter of the text is taken; the figures following each citation indicating the pages in "History for Ready Reference" where the matter may be found, the figures inclosed in parentheses showing where the same matter may be found in the first (1895) edition of the work. These extracts vary from a quarter of a column to five or six columns in length.

[Transcriber's note A colon (:) at the end of a line indicates the following line begins a subheading, a citation, or the citation title.]

STUDY I.

HISTORY AND ITS STUDY.

"It is seldom appreciated what a very large share of the world’s literature is history of some sort. The primitive savage is probably the only kind of a man who takes no interest in it. But as soon as a spark of civilization illumines this primitive darkness men begin to take interest in other men, not only beyond their immediate surroundings, but beyond the limits of their own generation. Interest in the past and provision for the future are perhaps essential differences between the civilized man and the savage. Accordingly as this care for the past and future increases, all literature divides itself into that which concerns the forces of nature, and that which concerns the history of man."

1. VARIOUS VIEWS AS TO WHAT HISTORY IS:

R. Flint:

History of the Philosophy of History, 1686-1687 (1648-1649).

archive.org/details/historyphilosop00flingoog

"With us the word ‘History,’ like its equivalents in all modern languages, signifies either a form of literary composition, or the appropriate subject matter of such composition, either a narrative of events, or events which may be narrated."

R. FLINT.

2. THE PROPER SUBJECTS AND OBJECTS OF HISTORY:

E. A. Freeman: Practical Bearings of European History, 1687-1688 (1648-1649).

T. B. Macaulay: History (Essays), 1692 (1658).

"The perfect historian is he in whose work the character and spirit of an age is exhibited in miniature. … By judicious selection, rejection, and arrangement, he gives to truth those attractions which have been usurped by fiction. … He shows us the court, the camp, and the senate. But he also shows us the nation. He considers no anecdote, no peculiarity of manner, no familiar saying, as too insignificant for his notice, which is not too insignificant to illustrate the operation of laws, of religion, and of education, and to mark the progress of the human mind."

T. B. MACAULAY.

3. THE PHILOSOPHY OF HISTORY:

R. Flint: Philosophy of History, 1688 (1649).

4. HISTORY AS A SCIENCE;

and HISTORY AS THE ROOT OF ALL SCIENCE:

H. T. Buckle:

History of Civilization in England, 1688 (1649). www.gutenberg.org

J. G. Droysen:

Outline of the Principles of History, 1689 (1650). archive.org/details/outlineofprincip01droy

T. Carlyle: On History (Essays), 1689-1690 (1650-1651).

"There is, I speak humbly, in common with Natural Science, in the study of living History, a gradual approximation to a consciousness that we are growing into a perception of the workings of the Almighty ruler of the world. … The study of History is in this respect, as Coleridge said of Poetry, its own great reward, a thing to be loved and cultivated for its own sake. … For one great, insoluble problem of astronomy or geology, there are a thousand insoluble problems in the life, in the character, in the face of every man that meets you in the street. Thus, whether we look at the dignity of the subject matter, or at the nature of the mental exercise which it requires, or at the nature of the field over which the pursuit ranges, History, the knowledge of the adventures, the development, the changeful career, the varied growths, the ambitions, aspirations, and, if you like, the approximating destinies of mankind, claims a place second to none in the roll of Sciences."

BISHOP STUBBS.

5. HOW TO STUDY HISTORY:

A. B. Hart: How to Study History, 1693 (1654).

6. THE EDUCATIONAL AND PRACTICAL VALUE OF HISTORY; ITS MORAL LESSONS:

J. A. Froude: Short Studies on Great Subjects, 1690 (1651).

W. E. H. Lecky: The Political Value of History, 1690 (1651).

C. K. Adams: Manual of Historical Literature, 1690-1691 (1651-1652).

W. Stubbs: The Study of Modern History, 1691 (1652).

"The effect of historical reading is analogous, in many respects, to that produced by foreign travel. The student, like the tourist, is transported into a new state of society. He sees new fashions. He hears new modes of expression. His mind is enlarged by contemplating the wide diversities of laws, of morals, and of manners."

T. B. MACAULAY.

7. THE PROVINCE AND VALUE OF THE HISTORICAL ROMANCE:

G. H. Lewes: Historical Romance, 1692-1693 (1653-1654).

A. Thierry:

The Merovingian Era, 1693 (1654).

J. R. Seeley: History and Politics, 1693 (1654).

"To say that there is more real history in his (Scott’s) novels on Scotland and England than in the philosophically false compilations which still possess that great name, is not advancing anything strange in the eyes of those who have read and understood ‘Old Mortality,’ ‘Waverley,’ ‘Rob Roy,’ the ‘Fortunes of Nigel,’ and the ‘Heart of Midlothian.’"

A. THIERRY.

"We can hardly read the interesting Life of Lord Macaulay without perceiving that the most popular historical work of modern times owes its origin in a great measure to the Waverley Novels. Macaulay grew up in a world of novels: his youth and early manhood witnessed the appearance of the Waverley Novels themselves. He became naturally possessed by the idea which is expressed over and over again in his Essays, and which at last he realized with such wonderful success, the idea that it was quite possible to make history as interesting as romance."

J. R. SEELEY. {736}

8. THE IMPORTANCE OF A KNOWLEDGE OF UNIVERSAL HISTORY:

O. Browning: The Teaching Of History In Schools, 1604 (1655).

"To know History is impossible; not even Mr. Freeman, not Professor Ranke himself, can be said to know history. … No one, therefore, should be discouraged from studying History. Its greatest service is not so much to increase our knowledge as to stimulate thought and broaden our intellectual horizon,

and for this purpose no study is its equal. " W. P. ATKINSON.

STUDY II.

Page references in first 1895 edition in parentheses.

THE DAWN OF HISTORY; PRIMITIVE PEOPLES.

I. THE THREE MARKED DIVISIONS OF THE HUMAN RACE WHEN THE EARLIEST HISTORIC RECORD BEGINS:

(a) The Aryan: 144 (137), 145 (138) and Appendix A., Volume V. (Volume I).

(b) The Semitic: 2963-2966 (2886-2889).

(c) The Turanian: 3245, 1740, 2265 (3129, 1701, 2221).

2. THESE DIVISIONS WERE NOT PROPERLY RACIAL, BUT LINGUISTIC, THOUGH USAGE HAS GIVEN THEM A RACIAL SIGNIFICANCE:

"Aryan in Scientific language is utterly inapplicable to race. It means language, and nothing but language … I have declared again and again that if I say ‘Aryas,’ I mean simply those who speak the ‘Aryan’ language."

MAX MÜLLER.

"The ‘Semitic race’ owes its name to a confusion of ethnology and philology. A certain family of speech, composed of languages closely related to one another, and presupposing a common mother tongue, received the title of ‘Semitic’ … But

whatever justification there may have been for speaking of a Semitic family of languages, there was none for speaking of a Semitic race."

A. H. SAYCE.

3. BIRTHPLACE OF THE ARYANS:

C. F. Keary: The Dawn of History, 144-145 (137-138). www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/52030.

J. N. Larned: A Historical Sketch of Europe, 1018 (990).

J. Rhys: Race Theories, 145 (138).

4. EARLY ARYAN MIGRATIONS:

(a) To India.

W. W. Hunter: History of India, 1740-1741 (1701-1702).

M. Duncker: History of Antiquity, 1741-1742 (1702-1703).

M. Williams: Religious Thought in India, 1742 (1703).

(b) To Greece.

E. Curtius: History of Greece, 2603 (2535).

C. W. C. Oman: History of Greece, 1604-1605 (1566-1567).

J. N. Larned: Europe, 1019-1021 (991-993).

D. G. Hogarth: Authority and Archaeology, Volume VI., 23-25.

(c) To Italy.

T. Mommsen: History of Rome, 1016-1017, 1845 (988-989, 1805).

F. Haverfield: Authority and Archaeology, Volume VI., 25.

(d) To Western Europe.

J. Rhys: Celtic Britain, 412 (402).

J. N. Larned: Europe, 1019 (991).

(e) In General.

Appendix A. at end of Volume V. (Volume I.).

Ethnological Map, before Title Page, Volume I.

5. ORIGIN OF THE SEMITIC PEOPLES:

George Adam Smith: Historical Geography of the Holy Land, 2964-2965 (2887-2888).

6. THE VARIOUS DIVISIONS OF THE SEMITES:

(a) In General.

J. F. McCurdy: History, Prophecy, and the Monuments, 2963-2964 (2886-2887).

(b) The Babylonian.

J F. McCurdy: History, Prophecy, and the Monuments, 2965-2966 (2888-2889).

Z. A. Ragozin: The Story of Chaldea, 246-247 (239-240).

A. H. Sayce: Recent Discoveries in Babylonia, Volume VI., 14-15.

(c) The Canaanitic and Phoenician.

F. Lenormant: Ancient History of East, 2598-2599 (2530-2531).

(d) The Hebraic.

A. Kuenen: Religion of Israel, 1936 (1895).

H. Ewald: History of Israel, 1937 (1896).

S. R. Driver: Authority and Archaeology, Volume VI., 12.

7. DISTINCTIVE CHARACTERISTICS OF SEMITES, AND THEIR CONTRIBUTION TO THE WORLD CIVILIZATION:

A. H Sayce: Babylonian Literature, 246 (239).

E. Renan: Studies in Religious History, 2965 (2888).

"We owe to the Semitic race neither political life, art, poetry, philosophy, nor Science. What, then, do we owe to them? We owe to them Religion. The whole world, if we except India, China, Japan, and tribes altogether savage, has adopted the Semitic religion."

E. RENAN.

8. RELATION BETWEEN THE EARLY SEMITES AND THE

PRIMITIVE CHINESE:

R. K. Douglas: China, 430-432 (416-418).

T. de Lacouperie: History of Chinese Civilization, 246 (239).

9. ORIGIN AND RACIAL CONNECTIONS OF THE PRIMITIVE EGYPTIAN PEOPLES:

H. Brugsch Bey: Egypt under the Pharaohs, 777 (750).

G. Rawlinson. History of Ancient Egypt, 777 (750).

W. M. F. Petrie: Recent Research in Egypt, Volume VI., 18-20.

10. THE EARLIEST SEMITES KNOWN TO HISTORY:

J. F. McCurdy: History, Prophecy, and the Monuments, 2965-2966 (2888-2889).

Max Müller: The Enormous Antiquity of the East, 2966 (2889).

A. H. Sayce: Babylonian Literature,

246 (239).

"The Babylonians were … the first of the Semites to enter the arena of history, and they did so by virtue of the civilization to which they attained in and through their settlement on the lower Euphrates and Tigris."

J. F. MCCURDY.

{737} STUDY III. Page references in first 1895 edition in parentheses.

THE LIFE OF PRIMITIVE PEOPLES; ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH.

1. GENERAL CHARACTER OF WORK OF EXCAVATION OF BURIED CITIES:

W. M. F. Petrie. The Story of a "Tell," 782 (755).

G. Smith: Assyrian Discoveries, 149-150 (143).

H. V. Hilprecht: Recent Research in Bible Lands, Volume VI., 12. Sunday School Times, Volume VI., 13.

2. PREHISTORIC CULTURE AND CIVILIZATION:

(a) Babylonia.

A. H. Sayce: Babylonian Literature, 246 (239).

J. F. McCurdy: History, Prophecy, and The Monuments, 2965-2966 (2888-2889).

S. R. Driver: Authority and Archaeology, Volume VI., 12.

Perrot and Chipiez: Art in Chaldæa and Assyria, 2969 (2892).

"When civilization makes up its mind to reenter upon that country, nothing more will be needed for the reawakening in it of life and reproductive energy, than the restoration of the great works undertaken by the contemporaries of Abraham and Jacob."

PERROT AND CHIPIEZ.

(b) Egypt.

H. G. Tomkins: Studies on Times of Abraham, 778-779 (751-752).

W. M. F. Petrie: Recent Egyptian Exploration, Volume VI., 20, 21.

(c) Greece.

C. W. C. Oman: History of Greece, 1605, last column, (1567).

P. Gardner: New Chapters in Greek History, 1605-1606 (1567-1568).

S. H. Butcher: Aspects of Greek Genius, 1675 (1636).

A. J. Evans: London Times, Volume VI., 23, 24.

A. L. Frothingham: Archaeological Progress, Volume VI., 25.

(d) Italy and Rome.

Padre de Cara: The Academy, 1845 (1805).

J. N. Larned: Europe, 1020-1021 (992-993).

F. de Coulanges: The Ancient City, 2731 (2657).

Goldwin Smith: The Greatness of the Romans, 2732-2733 (2658-2659).

"It may seem a paradox, but we suspect that in their imperial ascendency is seen one of the earliest and not least important steps in that gradual triumph of intellect over force, even in war, which has been an essential part of the progress of civilization. The happy day may come when Science in the form of a benign old gentleman with a bald head and spectacles on nose, holding some beneficent compound in his hand, will confront a standing army, and the standing army will cease to exist. That will be the final victory of intellect. But in the meantime, our acknowledgments are due to the primitive inventors of military discipline. They shivered Goliath’s spear."

SMITH.

(e) India.

W. W. Hunter: History of Indian People, 1740-1741 (1701-1702).

(f) China.

R. K. Douglas: China, 430-432 (416-418).

3. Early Language and Literature:

(a) Babylonia and Assyria.

A. H. Sayce: Fresh Light from the Monuments, 150, 245-246, 664-665 (143, 238-239, 641-642).

A. H. Sayce: Social Life of Assyrians and Babylonians,

2044 (2000).

A. H. Sayce: Races of the Old Testament, 2963 (2886)

A. Lefèvre: Race and Language, 2971 (2894).

(b) Egypt.

H. Brugsch-Bey: History of Egypt, 777 (750).

M. Duncker: History of Antiquity, 777 (750).

E. A. W. Budge: The Mummy, 1684-1685 (1645-1646).

A. Mariette-Bey: Monuments of Upper Egypt, 2826 (2752).

(c) Phoenicia.

Perrot and Chipiez: Art in Phoenicia, 2601 end of last column, (2533).

(d) Greece

E. Curtius:

History of Greece, 1674-1675 (1635-1636).

W. E. Gladstone: Homer, 1699-1700 (1660-1661).

W. Leaf: Companion to the Iliad, 1700 (1661).

A. Lang: Homer and the Epic, 1700 (1661).

D. G. Hogarth: Authority and Archæology, Volume VI., 25.

(e) Italy and Rome.

T. Mommsen: History of Rome, 1845 (1805).

G. A. Simcox: History of Latin Literature, 2734 (2660).

(f) India.

M. Duncker: History of Antiquity, 1741-1742 (1702-1703).

M. Williams: Religious Thought in India,

1742 (1703).

4. EDUCATION:

(a) Babylonia and Assyria.

A. H. Sayce: Babylonian Literature, 246, 697-698 (239, 674-675).

A. H. Sayce: Social Life among the Babylonians, 698 (675).

A. H. Sayce: Fresh Light from the Monuments, 150 (143).

"The primitive Chaldeans were preeminently a literary people, and it is by their literary relics, by the scattered contents of their libraries, that we can know and judge them. As befitted the inventors of a system of writing, like the Chinese they set the highest value on education, even though examinations may have been unknown among them. Education, however, was widely diffused."

A. H. SAYCE.

(b) Egypt.

G. Maspero: Life in Ancient Egypt, 697 (674).

H. Brugsch-Bey: History of Egypt, 697 (674).

"In the education of youth the Egyptians were particularly strict; and ‘they knew,’ says Plato, ‘that children ought to be early accustomed to such gestures, looks, and motions, as are decent and proper; and not to be suffered either to hear or learn any verses and songs other than those which are calculated to inspire them with virtue.’"

J. G. WILKINSON.

(c) Greece.

(1) Athenian.

Plato: Protagoras, 701 (678).

Aristotle: Politics, 701-702 (678-679).

J. P. Mahaffy: Old Greek Education, 703 (680).

J. A. St. John: The Hellenes, 703-704 (680-681).

W. W. Capes: University Life in Ancient Athens, 5 (5).

Guhl and Koner: Life of Greeks and Romans, 1657 (1619).

(2) Spartan.

C. Thirlwall: History of Greece, 704-5 (681-2).

(d) Alexandria.

J. H. Newman: Historical Sketches, 708 (685).

(e) Rome.

J. J. Döllinger: Gentile and Jew, 708-709 (685-686).

(f) Judæa.

E. Schürer: History of Jewish People, 700 (677).

H. Graetz: History of the Jews, 700-1 (677-678).

(g) China.

W. A. P. Martin: The Chinese, 698-699 (675-676).

(h) Persia.

G. Rawlinson: The Five Great Monarchies,

699-700 (676-677).

5. RELIGION:

(a) China.

R. K. Douglas: China, 432-433 (418-419).

(b) Egypt.

A. B. Edwards: The Academy, 305 (296).

(c) Greece.

C. C. Felton: Greece, Ancient and Modern, 804-805, 2453 (777-778, 2401).

{738}

E. Curtius: History of Greece, 2452 (2400).

W. M. Leake: Topography of Athens, 2451 (2399).

C. Thirlwall: History of Greece, 2451 (2399).

G. Grote:

History of Greece, 680 (657).

(d) India.

M. Williams: Religious Thought in India, 1742 (1703).

Hinduism, 1743-1744 (1704-1705).

J. T. Wheeler: History of India, 406 (396).

(e) Persia.

G. Rawlinson: Religions of the Ancient World, 3788-3789 (3666-3667).

M. Haug: Lectures on Zoroaster, 3790 (3668).

(f) Rome.

T. Arnold: History of Rome, 2981 (2903).

H. Macmillan: Roman Mosaics, 2981 (2903).

T. Mommsen:

History of Rome, 195 (188).

W. Ramsay: Roman Antiquities, 196-197 (189-190).

Guhl and Koner: Greeks and Romans, 3743 (3623).

N. Hawthorne: The Marble Faun, 2476 (2417).

Note. In nearly all cases, in the Studies that follow, all chronological divisions previous to the sixth or seventh centuries B. C. must be regarded as approximate only. The dates given are those generally accepted by the best scholars of the present day.

STUDY IV.

Page references in first 1895 edition in parentheses.

BABYLONIA AND ASSYRIA.

1. GEOGRAPHY:

G. Rawlinson: Five Great Monarchies, 2198 (2154).

F. Lenormant: Ancient History of the East, 2964 (2887).

G. Adam Smith:

Historical Geography of the Holy Land, 2964 (2887).

2. CHALDEA-BABYLONIA:

A. H. Sayce: Fresh Light from the Monuments, 245-246 (239), and following authorities.

3. THE ACCADIANS, SUMERIANS, ELAMITES, AND CUSHITES:

A. H. Sayce: Babylonian Literature, 246, 698 (239, 675).

A. H. Sayce: Fresh Light from the Monuments, 150, 246 (143, 239).

A. H. Sayce: Races of the Old Testament, 2963 (2886).

Z. A. Ragozin: Story of Chaldea, 795(768).

J. F. McCurdy: History, Prophecy, and Monuments, 2965-2966 (2888-2889).

Dr. Tiele: History of Babylonia, 2967 (2890).

F. Lenormant: Ancient History of the East,

128-129 (121-122).

A. H. Sayce: Contemporary Review, Volume VI., 14.

4. THE ERA OF CITY STATES (5000 to 3800 B. C.):

Z. A. Ragozin: Story of Chaldea, 246-247 (239-240).

5. CONQUESTS OF SARGON I. (3750 B. C.):

Dr. Tiele: History of Babylonia, 2967 (2890).

F. Max Müller: Enormous Antiquity of the East, 2966 (2889).

Z. A. Ragozin: Story of Chaldea, 247 (240).

A. H. Sayce: Contemporary Review, Volume VI., 13, 14.

6. HAMMURABI ESTABLISHES THE FIRST BABYLONIAN EMPIRE (2250 B. C.):

E. J. Simcox: Primitive Civilizations,

2967(2890).

J. F. McCurdy: History, Prophecy, and the Monuments, 2967 (2890).

A. H. Sayce: Ancient Empires of the East, 247 (240).

7. THE CITY OF BABYLON:

A. H. Sayce: Ancient Empires of the East, 247 (240).

G. Rawlinson: Herodotus, 245 (238).

W. B. Wright: Ancient Cities, 2969-2970 (2893).

B. T. A. Evetts: New Light on the Bible and Holy Land, 2970-2971 (2893-2894).

8. THE KASSITE EMPIRE AND EGYPTIAN INVASIONS (1800-1250 B. C.):

J. F. McCurdy: History, Prophecy, and the Monuments, 2967 (2890).

A. H. Sayce: Higher Criticism and Verdict of the Monuments,

2968 (2891).

A. Lefèvre: Race and Language, 2968 (2891).

G. Rawlinson: History of Ancient Egypt, 779-780 (752-753).

9. ASSYRIA GAINS AND HOLDS SUPREMACY (1250-600 B. C.):

Perrot and Chipiez: History of Art in Chaldea and Assyria, 2968-2969 (2891-2892).

L. von Ranke: Universal History, 2969 (2892).

10. THE CITY OF NINEVEH:

A. H. Sayce: Higher Criticism and the Monuments, 2967-2968 (2891).

A. H. Sayce: Fresh Light from the Monuments, 150 (143).

Z. A. Ragozin: Story of Chaldea, 2415 (2363).

Perrot and Chipiez: History of Art in Chaldea and Assyria,

2969 (2892).

11. THE LAST BABYLONIAN EMPIRE (625-536 B. C.):

E. A. W. Budge: Babylonian Life and History, 2969 (2892).

A. H. Sayce: Ancient Empires of East, 247 (240).

Introduction to Books of Ezra, Nehemiah, and Esther, 2577-2578 (2510-2511).

Ancient Empires of the East, 2577 (2510).

12. BABYLONIAN AND ASSYRIAN LIFE: (a) Literature.

A. H. Sayce: Fresh Light from the Monuments, 245-246 (238-239).

A. H. Sayce: Babylonian Literature, 246, 697-698 (239, 674-675).

A. H. Sayce: Social Life among the Babylonians, 698 (675).

A. V. Hilprecht: Sunday School Times,

Volume VI., 15-16.

(b) Education.

A. H. Sayce: Babylonian Literature, 698 (675).

A. H. Sayce: Social Life Among the Babylonians, 698 (675).

A. H. Sayce: Contemporary Review, Volume VI., 14.

(c) Trade and Commerce.

M. Duncker: History of Antiquity, 3207-3208 (3697).

E. J. Lubbock: History of Money, 2243 (2199).

Sir J. Simcox: Primitive Civilizations, 2243-2244 (2200).

(d) Treatment of Diseases.

G. Rawlinson: Herodotus, 2166 (2122).

F. Lenormant:

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