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Population and Development Issues

SCIENCES

Geography and Demography, Field Director – Denise Pumain

Demography, Subject Head – Brigitte Baccaïni

Population and Development Issues

First published 2022 in Great Britain and the United States by ISTE Ltd and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, this publication may only be reproduced, stored or transmitted, in any form or by any means, with the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction in accordance with the terms and licenses issued by the CLA. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside these terms should be sent to the publishers at the undermentioned address:

ISTE Ltd

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

27-37 St George’s Road 111 River Street London SW19 4EU Hoboken, NJ 07030

UK USA

www.iste.co.uk

www.wiley.com

© ISTE Ltd 2022

The rights of Yves Charbit to be identified as the author of this work have been asserted by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s), contributor(s) or editor(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of ISTE Group.

Library of Congress Control Number: 2021950758

British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data

A CIP record for this book is available from the British Library

ISBN 978-1-78945-051-4

ERC code:

LS8 Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology

LS8_3 Population biology, population dynamics, population genetics

SH1 Individuals, Markets and Organisations

SH1_3 Development economics, health economics, education economics

SH3 The Social World, Diversity, Population

SH3_8 Population dynamics; households, family and fertility

2.4.

2.2.3.

2.2.4.

3.3.

3.4.

4.1.

4.2. Health and reproductive rights at the heart of demography:

4.2.1.

4.2.2.

4.2.3.

4.2.4.

4.2.5.

4.2.6.

4.2.7.

4.3.

4.3.1.

4.3.3.

4.3.4.

4.3.5.

4.4.

5.2.2.

5.3.

5.3.1.

5.3.2.

5.3.3.

5.4.

5.4.1.

5.4.2.

5.5.

5.6.

6.1. Measuring and analyzing poverty and inequalities

6.1.1. Defining poverty

6.1.2. Measuring

6.2. The evolution of poverty

6.2.1. Means of subsistence around 2015

6.2.2. The evolution of extreme poverty in the world...........

6.2.3.

6.3. Poverty in Niger

6.3.1. The sociodemographic characteristics of households

6.3.2. Poverty and the labor market

6.3.3. Food insecurity in 2011

6.4. Conclusion: toward a new poverty indicator?

6.5. References ....................................

Chapter 7. Mental Health: An Underestimated Development

7.1.

7.2.

7.2.1. Genealogy of an international

7.2.2. The global morbidity

7.2.3. Lack of mobilization and investment in mental

7.2.4. The costs of mental disorders

7.2.5. Mental health in the demographic and epidemiological

7.3. Senegal, an emblematic case of the situation in African countries ...

7.3.1. Colonial heritage: the Fann school

7.3.2. The care supply: insufficient and unevenly distributed .

7.3.3. Therapeutic pathways and adherence to treatment ........

7.4. Conclusion: a fight that still has to be waged ................

7.5. References ....................................

Chapter 8. Migration Remittances and Development...........

Serge FELD

8.1. Introduction

8.2. Volume and trends in remittance

8.2.1.

8.3. The consequences for households:

8.3.1.

8.3.2.

8.3.3.

8.3.4.

8.4.

8.5.

Chapter 9. Climate Change and Demography ................

9.1.

9.2.

9.2.3.

9.3.

9.4.

9.5.

9.6.

Chapter 10. Population Policies .........................

10.1.

Introduction Population in the Development Paradigm

I.1. Population and development

This book assumes that the reader has some background knowledge of demographic dynamics. In fact, these have been studied in a complementary volume1, the chapters of which focused on major demographic variables (fertility and its regulation, especially nuptiality, contraception and abortion; mortality and morbidity; and finally, international migrations), as well as on their interactions. The current prevailing paradigm of the demographic transition and a more recent theoretical development – the demographic dividend – completed this earlier volume.

In this work, population is considered in relation to major development issues. Within the scope of this brief introduction, it is impossible to account for the immense field of theories analyzing the relationships between population and development. A simple empirical illustration, based on four single indicators, is therefore proposed: one related to development and the other three to demography. The United Nations database (UN DESA 2019) provides five-yearly average values

1 Charbit, Y. (ed.) (2021). Demographic Dynamics and Development. ISTE Ltd, London, and John Wiley & Sons, New York.

Population and Development Issues, coordinated by Yves CHARBIT. © ISTE Ltd 2022.

for these indicators, calculated since 1950 for all countries, continents and sub-regions.

Figure I.1. Population growth rate (in %) by income level (2015–2020 average) (source: UN DESA (2019))

The development indicator provided by the World Bank ranks countries according to their income level: high (73 countries), upper-middle (54 countries), lower-middle (50 countries) and low (32 countries). In July 2020, the income brackets, in dollars, were as follows: low-income: <1,036; lower-middle income: 1,036–4,045; upper-middle income: 4,046–12,535; high-income: >12,535. The three demographic indicators are population growth rate (Figure I.1), infant mortality (the number of deaths in the last year among children under one year) (see Figure I.2) and the number of children per woman (see Figure I.3). It is important to note that there is a strong relationship between development – as measured by a country’s income level – and the three demographic indicators. When wealth increases, the growth rate decreases, while infant mortality and fertility decrease. For the first two indicators, the decrease is regular across different income brackets. In contrast, low fertility in high-income countries (2.6 children per woman) diverges from the other three categories, whose comparable levels (between 5.5 and 6.6) are twice as high.

High (> 12,535)

(< 1,036)

(4,046 – 12,535)

– 4,045)

Figure I.2. Infant mortality by income level (2015–2020 average) (source: UN DESA (2019))

High (> 12,535)

(4,046 – 12,535)

(1,036 – 4,045)

(< 1,036)

Figure I.3. Number of children per woman by income level (2015–2020 average) (source: UN DESA (2019))

Beyond this purely empirical initial observation, the broad question of the factors underpinning the relationships between population and development must be addressed through two questions. How can development reduce mortality? How can it reduce fertility?

I.1.1. Development and the decline in infant mortality

Infant mortality is particularly sensitive to poverty and, more generally, to family living conditions. It is important to draw a distinction between two levels, that of macroeconomic development, which is analyzed at the state level, and that of social development, where the relevant unit of analysis is the family.

At the state level, development enables investment in health, whereas in the absence of development, this is generally not prioritized over other forms of investment. Improved healthcare provision results from the creation of infrastructure: hospitals, health centers and mobile teams to support the most isolated populations. Indeed, in the absence of development, healthcare services are concentrated in large cities, to the detriment of small towns and rural areas. The creation or improvement of transportation, as well as access to drinking water and a functioning sewage and wastewater disposal system all contribute to the reduction of gastrointestinal infections. Finally, if there are more healthcare workers who are better trained and better paid, healthcare can improve significantly.

Figure I.4. a) Drying of surgical gloves. b) Wastewater disposal problem (source: Charbit). For a color version of this figure, see www.iste.co.uk/charbit/population.zip

At the family level, development influences the demand for healthcare. There are a number of positive impacts on children’s health from increased incomes. This could be achieved provided that wealth created through development is not monopolized by certain groups at the expense of the mass of the population who could be left in poverty; and further, that families have sufficient resources to be able to devote part of them to their children’s health, in terms of vaccination, medical visits, purchase of medicines, etc. Another positive outcome is the quantitative and qualitative improvement of food: a higher daily calorie intake and increased animal protein in the diet helps to strengthen children’s resistance to disease, thereby increasing their chances for survival. For all of these reasons, infant mortality decreases when economic development occurs. Figure I.4 illustrates the wider problem of infection risks, particularly in urban areas: on the left, poor aseptic techniques (drying of surgical gloves in front of a health center in Guinea); on the right, issues with wastewater disposal (Senegal).

I.1.2. Development and the decline in fertility

As with infant mortality, the development of infrastructure contributes to the reduction of fertility in developing countries, particularly if governments are committed to implementing family planning programs that promote the use of modern contraception methods. However, availability is not sufficient if it does not correspond to demand from the population, because the acceptance of contraception by women and couples involves a fundamentally economic and sociological dimension. Indeed, decline in fertility generally occurs in a context of economic and social development, characterized by a change in women’s status: education, urbanization and the development of the workforce gradually help them to move away from their traditional role in the reproductive sphere. It becomes socially acceptable to use contraception to restrict fertility, especially in cases where the four characteristics of western societies are met: a secularized mentality, confidence in science and technology and, above all, women’s decision-making autonomy.

With economic and social development, women will see their status change and, over time, will no longer limit their aspirations to reproduction. Educated women oppose the traditional roles assigned to them and are instead most interested in personal development. Moreover, since education allows them to access jobs in the modern sector, they will have a salary and will therefore be able to negotiate greater autonomy with respect to their husband, and with respect to their parents in the case of single women. On the other hand, (non-religious) schooling systems convey more egalitarian models, putting these same women in contact with the western nuclear family model, more so than their illiterate counterparts. Finally, from a “technical”

point of view, educated women, with better knowledge of their physiology, use modern contraception methods more effectively. For all of these reasons, educated women will be pioneers in their society: some of them are co-decision makers with their husbands on the use of contraception; others often use contraception against the will of their husband and relatives, who see it as a dangerous factor of sexual emancipation.

Figure I.5(a) illustrates – almost to the point of caricature – the profile of these pioneering, educated, urban women who are well integrated into the modern employment sector, and whom others imitate in a process of diffusion. Figure I.5(b) shows that the process in Iran has led to a restricted nuclear family model. Currently, fertility is almost at replacement level (2.15 children per woman in 2020), despite a strict natalist Islam, which has long been hostile toward contraception, abortion and female labor.

This brief mention of the relationship between development and health, and between development and education, certainly does not exhaust the complexity of interactions. The chapters that follow detail the complex and wide-ranging nature of “development issues”.

I.2. Major development issues

Chapter 1 is devoted to prominent authors of the past who, between the 16th and the 19th centuries, laid the foundations for the relationships between population and development. The seven chapters that follow deal with major issues: education

Figure I.5. a) A pioneer woman. b) A restricted nuclear family (source: UNFPA)

(Chapter 2), employment (Chapter 3), gender inequalities (Chapter 4), poverty and social inequalities (Chapter 5), migration and transfers (Chapter 6), climate change (Chapter 9) and population policies (Chapter 10). Chapter 5 addresses the choice of a child’s sex before birth and complements Chapter 4. Chapter 8 focuses on the intergenerational transfers that were analyzed in Chapter 3 of Demographic Dynamics and Development. Chapter 7, which focuses on mental health, complements Chapter 6 of Demographic Dynamics and Development. which centers on physical health. The concluding chapter addresses the complexity of the other factors involved, aside from demography, which calls into question the role of population as the sole obstacle to development.

Chapter title

1. The Precursors: The Mercantilists, Malthus, Marx (Charbit)

2. Education, Population and Development (Bella and Charbit)

3. Employment and the Informal Economy (Charmes)

4. Gender Inequalities (Rabier)

Case study

The relevance of Marx

Education and demography in Southern and South-Eastern Asia

Employment and informal economy in the Maghreb

Gender, educational offer and demand in Africa

5. Sex Selection: Public Policies to Balance the Scales (Guilmoto and Rahm) Armenia and Vietnam

6. Poverty and Inequalities (Charbit, Omrane and Oumarou)

Inequalities in Niger

7. Mental Health: An Underestimated Development Issue (Petit) Mental health in Senegal

8. Migration Remittances and Development (Feld)

Remittances and household living standards

9. Climate Change and Demography (Henry) Trapped populations

10. Population Policies (May)

Conclusion. Is Population Really the Problem? (Charbit)

Developing and developed countries

The three inequalities

Table I.1. Presentation of chapters and in-depth case studies

Typically, each chapter introduction briefly presents the issue, the hypotheses chosen and the sources used. A “general” section provides useful statistical or

demographic data, or a typological classification. Where applicable, the following levels are distinguished: world, continents and some of the main sub-regions of the relevant continents. These sections also provide data in accordance with different development levels (developed countries, developing countries and least developed countries). Finally, the chapters explore one or more case studies, listed in Table I.1. These may be centered on a particularly important country, sub-region or sub-theme.

I.2.1. The precursors: the mercantilists, Malthus, Marx

All too often, it is believed that reflection on the relationships between population and development is recent and contemporary, at least, with the sciences of demography and economy that were formed at the end of the 18th century. In fact, long before, with concepts and data at their disposal, the precursors proposed various doctrines and theories, and their writings clearly express the importance of population from a development perspective. Chapter 1 first presents the mercantilist economic theory. From the middle of the 17th century until the end of the 18th century, it was closely associated with European monarchies, particularly under French absolutism. The mercantilists developed a population doctrine based on the idea that a large population, along with a flourishing economy, was indispensable to the Prince’s political power. Then, in 1798, Malthus was the first to have dynamically analyzed the relationships between population and subsistence levels. But contrary to the widely held idea that he was hostile to population growth, careful reading of his writings shows that he proposed an original model of demo-economic growth, extending his initial analyses of the agricultural sector to the industrial and commercial sectors, undoubtedly a clear testimony to the development opportunities offered by the industrial revolution. The third part of the chapter is devoted to Marx, whose descriptions of the functioning of English capitalism, in particular the precariousness and exploitation of the workforce, are still relevant for studying developing countries today.

I.2.2. Education, population and development

Chapter 2 centers on education, a basic human right that should be experienced by everyone, regardless of their status. The right to education for all was first stated in the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights (Article 26). It was later confirmed by other international instruments and programs, legally binding or not. The most recent is the Sustainable Development Program, approved and adopted by the 193 Member States of the United Nations in September 2015. In its 4th Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 4), it calls on governments to ensure access to inclusive and equitable quality education, and to promote lifelong learning

opportunities for all. Over time, recognition of the right to education for all in a large number of countries has been accompanied by a significant increase in school enrollment worldwide, which has benefited girls in particular and reduced the gap between them and boys. The chapter first presents a statistical and demographic overview of education by level, with the most recent data issued by the UNESCO Institute for Statistics, updated every year in the “Global Education Monitoring Report”. Taken from a recent study of 21 countries in Southern and Southeast Asia (Charbit and Moussy 2018), the various impacts of the education of women on demographic variables are recalled: mortality, health (namely, the vaccination of children), fertility, nuptiality and contraception. Finally, a summary of the relationship between education and development is proposed on the basis of the widely documented “UNESCO World Report” of 2016: long-term economic growth, social development, participation in political life, conflict reduction and urbanization.

I.2.3. Employment and informal economy

Concepts relating to the informal economy, such as national accounting and working population, were adopted in the early 1990s and supplemented in the early 2000s (Chapter 3). Since then, they have been the subject of regular data collection in an increasing number of countries. The adoption of international definitions has made it possible to unify the still very diverse observation methods, favoring approaches by businesses, households, a mixture of businesses/households or following administrative statistics (as soon as a consensus emerges around a definition based on the absence of benefits from a contributory social protection scheme). Not only does the chapter recall the evolution of concepts and measurement methods, but also the extent of informal employment worldwide and in the main regions. Northern Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia) offers a particularly privileged field of observation, in the sense that a number of approaches have been tried there, and that longer and more recent time series are available, enabling sufficiently robust comparisons despite national variations and specificities. An overview of the situation and employment trends in the informal economy over the last decades has been drawn up for the four countries in Northern Africa: the definitions and measurement methods in use have been specified, and the precise characteristics have been analyzed. In conclusion, paradoxically, the lack of formal recognition of the informal economy – which would be illegal – does not prevent relatively good knowledge of this same informal economy, and of the supporting policies for the promotion of micro-enterprises, especially those oriented toward the employment of young graduates in the labor market and the creation of income-generating activities for the poorest, rather than consolidating existing activities.

I.2.4. Gender inequalities

Gender relations in the healthcare and education sectors are among the most unequal and are an essential dimension of demographic change (Chapter 4). While global maternal mortality decreased by 45% between 1990 and 2010, and by 41% in Africa, it remains 15 times higher in developing countries than in developed countries. More than 125 million girls and women alive today have been subjected to female genital mutilation (FGM) in 29 countries across Africa and the Middle East. The HIV epidemic still largely affects women, especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Gender stereotypes and patriarchy, a combination of male dominance and the so-called inferior status of women, are serious obstacles to the implementation of public health policies. The sexist discrimination they experience influences their knowledge of their own bodies, their right to seek medical treatment and their financial means to access it. In addition to anthropological discrimination, there is economic discrimination. The poverty of families, wage inequalities between men and women, over-representation of women in the informal labor sector (which is often more exposed and more dangerous), as well as the discrimination they face in order to become financially independent, limit their access to authentic autonomy. The last part of the chapter shows to what extent gender determinants are at the heart of educational supply and demand in Africa. Despite the progress made in education around the world, and in particular in Africa, there are still strong gender imbalances in terms of access, level of education, competences acquired through general and professional training, and opportunities to pursue college and university studies, with girls and women being particularly affected.

I.2.5. Prenatal selection and public policies

One aspect of the relationship between population and development has long been overlooked: the increasing masculinization of births (Chapter 5). Since the 1980s, the traditional preference for sons, declining fertility and access to affordable reproductive technologies have meant that the sex ratio at birth has been male-biased in a number of countries in Asia, the Caucasus and Eastern Europe. Behind this unexpected increase in sex ratio at birth (SRB) lies a fundamental form of gender discrimination: selective abortion of female fetuses. Over 125 million women have “disappeared” around the world – around 4% of the world’s female population – due to a strong preference for boys, with girls being undervalued. This chapter presents an overview of gender selection and the public policies aimed at re-normalizing the male-biased sex ratio and combating sex-based discrimination. Significant progress has been made in recent decades to acknowledge and respond to sex selection, and

various national, regional and international programs and policies have been implemented to counterbalance it. In the meantime, sex ratios at birth have started to return to normal in a number of countries. Nevertheless, the impact of anti-selection policies and campaigns on the balance of trends remains poorly understood. The two case studies presented (Armenia and Vietnam) show that the available data, in terms of policy monitoring and evaluation, contribute to a better understanding of the effectiveness of policies and help to identify the multiple, unintended consequences of public action on reproductive behavior and demographic results. More rigorous efforts for monitoring and assessing the policies destined to prevent gender-based prenatal selection are needed in order to accelerate the eradication of harmful practices, and implement the 2030 Development Agenda for women.

I.2.6. Poverty and inequalities

While economic development is assumed to involve social development –improving the living conditions and personal development of individuals and families – today, poverty is one of the major problems many states still have to face (Chapter 6). More precisely, poverty is a marker of inequality between sub-populations in the same country. These relate to gender, education and place of residence; they are also largely cumulative. First, the chapter recalls the various definitions and indicators associated with the term “poverty” that are used in international publications. There has been a gradual shift from poverty in terms of means of living (food survival) to monetary, economic poverty, and then poverty in terms of individual psychological and social development. There are also three dimensions of poverty: severity, incidence and depth. Chapter 6 also analyzes poverty in the continents, in their major regions and classifies world countries according to income level. All of the demographic indicators confirm the importance of a country’s income level. Extreme poverty has decreased considerably in less than a quarter of a century, even in fragile states, although Africa is still a continent where extreme poverty is much more common than elsewhere. For this reason, Niger has been chosen as the case study, given its population growth is the highest in the world (3.9% per year as of now), and the incidence, severity and depth of poverty are significant. The data available on households makes it possible to construct the profiles of those who are most vulnerable to poverty. And in this agricultural Sahelian country, whose food resources are jeopardized by climatic hazards, food insecurity is recurring.

I.2.7. Mental health

Developing countries spend less than 1% of their health budget on mental health, and between 75% and 85% of individuals with serious mental disorders in these regions receive no care at all, although these pathologies affect all social groups (Chapter 7). In most of these countries, mental health is not part of priority health programs (e.g. HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, maternal and child health), nor is it one of the non-communicable diseases that have become major public health issues, such as diabetes or cancer. For the past 30 years, international advocacy for measuring the morbidity burden represented by mental illnesses for states, their direct impact on productivity and economic growth, as well as their associated social costs (marginalization and exclusion) have intensified. After a brief historical review of the spread of psychiatry in colonial times, the emergence of the concept of mental health is discussed. Five major barriers still impede access to quality services for southern populations: the lack of financial resources and political involvement, excessive centralization, the absence of primary mental healthcare, the scarcity of specialized and trained staff, and a deficit in public health expertise among healthcare managers and administrators. A more demographic and anthropological section follows, in which Senegal – because of its history – is used as a particularly heuristic vantage point of mental health in developing countries. As it is elsewhere, mental health is still perceived primarily as a problem of the individual and the family. Poverty and insecurity are major obstacles to gain access to mental healthcare, reinforced by a lack of political will and inadequate investment.

I.2.8. Migration remittances

Money remittances made by migrants are one of the major resources for the countries of origin. Chapter 8 first presents the volumes and trends in global cash flow since 1990 and identifies the countries receiving the largest remittances in volume, then as a percentage of the Gross National Income, and finally as a percentage of exports. The top 10 countries are obviously not the same. Indeed, in a country like India, where the population is vast, many other sources of income contribute to the Domestic Product; the opposite is true in small countries, such as Haiti, with no other resources than to send a portion of its working population abroad. A detailed analysis identifies 10 countries where remittances are the most important in each major world region. This statistical review concludes with a discussion of the positive and negative effects of remittances on the economic growth rate, which reveals discrepancies between the available studies, either

theoretical or empirical. The chapter then shifts from the macroeconomic level to the microeconomic level of households in the countries of origin receiving remittances from migrants working abroad. While it is true that remittances reduce the extent and intensity of poverty, researchers diverge on the reduction or exacerbation of inequalities. The debate on the use of migration income revolves around the question of whether it is squandered on lavish spending or contributes to social development by making resources available for health, housing needs or education. A World Bank survey of five countries in Western and Eastern Africa provides factual data that makes it possible to compare the use of remittances from migrants residing outside of Africa to another country on the continent, and finally from internal migrants sending money to the countries considered.

I.2.9. Climate change

Over recent decades, scientific knowledge has accumulated to a great extent, confirming the concerns expressed by the Meadows report of 1972. Chapter 9 presents the main impacts of environmental changes on demographic factors, established through the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, currently the main source of scientific knowledge on climate change. This choice, although too restrictive according to some specialists, offers a broad view on this vast subject. The geography of climate change helps to better understand spatial inequalities. The complexity of the mechanisms studied is highlighted: correctly describing the parameters, accurately understanding the mechanisms and adequately modeling future changes and their effects are precarious exercises. The second part of the chapter discusses the impacts of climate change on demographic factors: fertility and its inevitable inertia, mortality and health, and finally migrations, probably the subject most often mentioned. The in-depth case study focuses on so-called trapped populations. This term refers to those who are seriously vulnerable to climate change, but too poor to adequately cope with it.

I.2.10. Population policies

Are population policies useful or not? What is their contribution to the Development Goals? Chapter 10 focuses on the policy reform process (the adopted policy “model”), policy design and implementation, policy actors and stakeholders, political institutions (national and international, or transnational) and the monitoring and evaluation of policies (i.e. the impact of population policies). These different aspects are covered with reference to the main world regions and in light of the

internationalization of population issues, for example international population conferences, as well as international or transnational institutions dealing with population and development issues. The second, more empirical part is based on experiences in the design, implementation and evaluation of population policies. Three main concrete examples are covered and developed in this section. First, a comparison between Latin America, SSA and Asia, with regard to the political models adopted in each region (top-down, state-driven policies in Asia; policies spearheaded by NGOs and the private sector in Latin America; and a mixed model gradually adopted in SSA). Second, the coercive approach (China, India in 1975–1977, etc.) is compared to the liberal approach in Asia, the latter offering similar, if not better, results to the first. Third, it refers to the ongoing debate around the first demographic dividend and the possibility of replicating it in SSA, inspired by the Eastern Asia model.

I.2.11. Is population really the problem?

A reflection on the real importance of the population as a factor for non-development concludes the book. According to the classic neo-Malthusian view, population growth that is too rapid is a key factor of poverty. This chapter shows that the relationships between population and development could benefit from being analyzed in relation to three types of inequality: gender, economic and territorial. Gender inequalities, visible in wage differentials, professional careers or political roles, lead to the centuries-old domination of women by men within patriarchal societies. It is particularly relevant to the control over their sexuality and fertility. Economic inequalities refer to the question of wealth distribution. Regardless of whether population growth is fast or slow, it all comes down to power negotiation, the balance of power between groups within a country, or the relationships between developed and developing countries. Marx strongly conceptualized these inequalities in 1867 in Capital. His analyses regarding the intensification of workforce exploitation are completely relevant to the present day. Territorial inequalities point to several realities such as development differences between cities and rural areas (not covered in this book but in another of the series). The chapter focuses on migration from poor countries to rich countries and, more specifically, on the political dimension of migratory flows. What has recently emerged, especially in Europe, is the presence of a form of populism exploiting the old xenophobic and racist backdrop, which implies the outright rejection of foreign people. This means the question of non-development goes beyond the mere limits of demography, which is only one factor among others.

I.3. References

Charbit, Y. and Mousy, H. (eds) (2018). Demographic Change and Implications for Education Policy: Three Country Case Studies from Asia. UNESCO/IEPP, Paris.

UN DESA (2019). World Population Prospects 2019. Key Findings and Advanced Tables. Report, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, New York.

1 The Precursors: The Mercantilists, Malthus, Marx

1.1. Theories and doctrines

If the great authors from the past still deserve our attention today, it is because they had a global vision of the problems raised by the population and they developed original and strikingly coherent intellectual constructions to reflect this. Depending on the data at their disposal at the time, their thoughts could (or not) be solidly grounded on the empirical observation of major demographic variables: nuptiality, fertility, mortality and migrations. This consistency was both theoretical and doctrinal. It should be noted that in terms of population, theories consist of a set of propositions presenting a certain degree of generality, organized as a coherent system and likely to be formalized under a law (in this case, called a population law), empirically verifiable in different contexts. Most often, demographers rely on the theory of the demographic transition, the only global paradigm in this discipline. A doctrine is a set of normative arguments on population, which defines the goals to be attained, be they global (population growth or slowdown) or specific to major demographic variables (most often fertility, nuptiality, mortality or migration). Doctrines translate a system for explaining the world, an ideology. In this sense, they are the carriers of values that make up a system and aim to provide those they are destined to – in general, rulers – with satisfactory answers to social problems related to demographic behavior, for example, the consequences of too high fertility, too rapid urbanization and as background components, the triple constraint any society is confronted to: demographic reproduction, ensuring economic survival,

Population and Development Issues, coordinated by Yves CHARBIT. © ISTE Ltd 2022.

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