Challenging, BUT FUN

The snow is coming down hard as I come to a stop light and look over at the car that has pulled up next to me. I notice the guy in the passenger seat waving and trying to get my attention. He lets me know I’m No. 1 by raising his finger. It isn’t the index finger. The man proceeds to mouth through the window his current dislike for the weather, and to tell me where I can put his dislike for the current elements. The light turns green, he leaves and I laugh. I understand his frustration; it’s the end of April. This is just one of the many stories in the life of a weatherman.

We get ridiculed and mocked on a daily basis about our forecasts. We know we’re going to get some guff when we choose this for a career. What we don’t realize is just how upset someone can get about the weather. I get calls and e-mails almost on a daily basis about something that the weather did to ruin someone’s day. It comes with the territory; at least I know they are watching.

Predicting the weather is a difficult task here in the Northland but, personally, I love it because no day is the same and it offers a ton of challenges. Just when you think you have got it all figured out, Mother Nature and her complicated relationship with Lake Superior take you for another ride.

By Justin Liles WDIO-TV

Lake Superior makes for a whole mess of challenges. One of the most important pieces of data in trying to figure out the weather around here is to first get a good read on the wind. If the wind direction is wrong, your entire forecast will be wrong. Will it be warmer or colder by the lake? What will the wind do to temps on the hill? How will it influence the type of precipitation we will have? How will it impact the timing? Will there be fog, rip currents, damaging winds or flooding? What is the water temp? Is there ice in the harbor or any part of the lake? These are just some of the questions for shoreline communities. We all know how much different the weather can be over the hill vs. by the lake. It’s a challenge that makes every day a fun one. The weather doesn’t exist just by the lake and on top of the hill. We have a much larger area to cover. With Canada to the north, we forecast for two countries. We have to forecast for three states: Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan. The weather in all of these places is so drastically different. The weather is not the same in east-central Minnesota as it is up by Grand Marais, Ely or International Falls. It’s much different in the U.P. of Michigan than down toward Hayward or out toward Bemidji. The bottom line is we attempt to forecast for all of these areas and there’s going to be some margin for error. I assure you it’s something we don’t like to admit. It’s human nature not to like being wrong. What matters is what you do with the information learned when you do miss.

In weather forecasting, technology is your friend but can also present its own challenge. The models we use can sometimes steer us in the wrong direction. I often get asked what the computer models are and why they are important. They are important in serving as a guide to get us pointed in the right direction while forecasting. They are computer-generated and are prone to some error; it’s our job to sift through the data and find the truth.

The best way to explain how a model works is like this: Imagine a computer model as a chocolate chip cookie. There are all kinds of chocolate chip cookies from which to choose. All are made just a little bit different, based on the ingredients used to make them. One cookie might taste better when cold vs when it’s hot. One might go well with milk and another might not. The same is true with computer models. They need to be looked at for guidance, but in the end one might be working better than the others. One might focus more on moisture, and another may give more weight to how fast as system is moving. We as meteorologists tend to latch on to our favorite cookie and can be blindsided by not trying out the others to make sure it’s the best cookie to use for the day. Too many times I see this happening in the weather field, and too many times it can lead to a busted forecast.

I know the guy at the stop light was frustrated. There might have been a little more snow than predicted. I just know from experience that predicting the future in such a diverse weather region has its challenges. And telling people we are going to see snow in late April and May — that’s the reason I go into the witness protection program during the final stretch of winter. u

Justin Liles is chief meteorologist for WDIO-TV in Duluth, and has been forecasting the Northland’s weather at the station since 2005. He can be reached at jliles@wdio.com.