Berkadia Seniors Housing | Commentary Report

SENIORS HOUSING COMMENTARY WI N TE R 2 0 2 6

INTRODUCTION The U.S. seniors housing sector is standing at the precipice of one of the most dynamic and rewarding investment environments of the past decade, a transition from post-pandemic stabilization to a period defined by acute scarcity and robust demand. For institutional investors and sophisticated operators, the landscape presents a confluence of demographic tailwinds, maturing fundamentals, and unprecedented pricing power that collectively underpin some of the strongest growth and yield prospects in commercial real estate today.

2026 marks a watershed for seniors housing: nearly all primary markets are approaching the 90% occupancy threshold, and momentum is accelerating toward historic highs. With baby boomers, America’s largest generation, now entering their 80s, the population segment driving demand for senior living is expanding more rapidly than active inventory, creating a sustained supply-demand imbalance that will stretch through

the decade. Transaction activity is surging as capital seeks scale and operational excellence, while operating margins are rising thanks to stabilized labor costs and accelerating rent growth.

A dramatic supply reset is further amplifying scarcity value, as construction starts remain at record lows and ground-up development lags well behind projected needs. Investors with the foresight and agility to act now will benefit from both immediate cash flow and a long runway of upside, fueled by market fundamentals that show no sign of softening. Whether the strategy is value-add, long-term hold, or institutional asset aggregation, the sector’s attributes are aligning for compelling returns and cross-cycle durability.

In this report, we explore the forces redefining seniors housing investment, key market trends, and the competitive landscape shaping opportunities in 2026 and beyond.

RECAP

Occupancy rates nearing 90% as supply falls behind demographic growth

Operating margins expand as labor costs stabilize and rent growth accelerates

Institutional buyers targeting fewer, higherquality assets at premium prices

Surge in demand as baby boomers enter prime seniors housing age

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DEMOGRAPHICS Demographic Tailwinds All baby boomers will be age 65 or older by 2030, with baby boomers accounting for 20% or more of the total population in 25 states.

The oldest boomers are approaching the age of 80, a key milestone that historically prompts a shift toward seniors housing and care. The population aged 80 and older is projected to grow dramatically, potentially nearly doubling by 2035 and reaching approximately 19 million by 2030.

This growth rate is expected to outpace all other age groups.

As the oldest boomers hit this age, the demand for senior living facilities is poised to surge significantly.

FASTEST-GROWING AGE 80+ POPULATIONS

18%

BENCHMARK PENETRATION RATE FOR FUTURE SENIORS HOUSING DEMAND PROJECTIONS

NEVADA

ARIZONA

IDAHO

UTAH

TEXAS

SOUTH CAROLINA

65+ POPULATION TRENDS

THE GRAYING GOLD RUSH

75.8 71.2

79.8

78.3

Million

Million

26.0%

Million

PROJECTED GROWTH RATE OF U.S. RESIDENTS AGE 65+ BY 2045

Million

63.3 Million 2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

80+ POPULATION TRENDS

26.8

99.5%

PROJECTED GROWTH RATE OF U.S. RESIDENTS AGE 80+ BY 2045

22.9 18.8 14.7

29.2 Million

Million

Million

Million

Million 2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

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2026 FORECAST The Scarcity Surge As we enter 2026, the seniors housing industry has reached a watershed moment. The sector is shifting from a period of recovery to one defined by acute scarcity and aggressive capital deployment.

The primary question for the upcoming year – will property offerings increase? – is met with a resounding “yes” regarding transaction volume, even as physical supply remains historically constrained.

The market is being reshaped by a perfect storm of demographics and disciplined development. The first of the baby boomers turn 80 this

4

year, triggering a demand surge that is colliding with a construction pipeline at its lowest level since 2006. NIC MAP Vision data indicates that while new construction starts represent less than 1% of existing inventory, transaction activity is soaring, with property prices per unit jumping an average of 33% year over year.

Industry leaders emphasize that the cushion of available units is rapidly vanishing. With industrywide occupancy projected to hit 90-91% by year-end, the strategy has shifted from wait and see to a competitive race for existing assets.

REITs and private equity are leading

a massive recapitalization wave, preferring to acquire and reposition stabilized properties rather than navigate a 29-month average construction cycle. High material costs and labor shortages mean new builds won’t hit the market in a meaningful way until 2028 or 2029.

For investors and operators, 2026 represents a window of opportunity where pricing power – driven by 4%+ annual rent growth – and rising margins are finally outpacing inflation, solidifying seniors housing as the highest-conviction play in real estate for 2026.

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2026 FORECAST High-Barrier Market Performance

Acquisition Strategy

While the national occupancy average is set to hit 90% this year, high-barrier markets – characterized by limited land, complex zoning, and high construction costs – are outperforming the baseline.

Investors are targeting these metros for their sticky demand and superior pricing power.

Although top‑tier, Class A assets in primary markets will remain highly sought after, scarcity is likely to guide 2026 strategies toward more creative plays. Repositioning underperforming seniors housing assets offers a compelling avenue to unlock value and deliver results sooner rather than waiting two to three years for new supply.

Transactions are expected to rise as debt becomes easier to secure and buyers seek to acquire assets before they reach full capacity.

Over 60%

OF PRIMARY MARKETS ARE EXPECTED TO SURPASS THE 90% STABILIZED THRESHOLD BY THE END OF 2026

TOP 5 RESILIENT MARKETS Rank

Market

Projected 2026 Occupancy

Annual Rent Growth Projection

Market Dynamics

1

Boston, MA

93.1%

5.2% - 6.0%

Consistently leads in occupancy; virtually zero new inventory planned for 2026

2

San Jose, CA

91.8%

4.8% - 5.5%

Extreme supply constraints; providers are pushing premium luxury-tier rates

3

New York, NY

90.5%

5.0% - 6.2%

High acuity demand is driving memory care and assisted living rates to record highs

4

Baltimore, MD

91.2%

4.5% - 5.0%

Steady absorption with almost no new competition entering the secondary submarkets

5

Tampa, FL

89.9%

5.5% - 6.5%

High migration of solo agers is keeping pace with the few new deliveries in the pipeline

# # # # #

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O P E R AT I O N S Strategic Margin Recovery in a Stabilizing Labor Market For the largest owners and operators in the seniors housing sector, 2025 was a turning point year. While labor costs remain the largest line item, the aggressive double-digit expense spikes of 2022 and 2023 have been replaced by a more manageable 4.5% annual increase in operating expenses (OpEx).

Crucially, major players are now seeing revenue growth (RevPOR) outpace expense growth (ExpPOR), leading to significant margin expansion across the board. Those companies with larger operating portfolios are seeing same-store revenue growth between 8% and 9.7%. These companies are able to leverage their massive scale to negotiate better rates for nonlabor expenses, which are currently rising at a slower rate than wages. Datadriven platforms are also being utilized to reduce the cost to serve per resident.

With new supply hovering near record lows, the demographic

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tailwind is helping operators push through rent increases of 7%, essentially absorbing the 3.2% national average increase in hourly wages. Improved efficiencies in AI are helping companies scale and staff more effectively, creating more reduction in labor costs.

The seniors housing sector has entered a rare golden window where top-tier owners and operators are realizing average operating margins above 25-30% for the first time since 2018. This profitability surge is the result of a powerful scissors effect: revenue lines are accelerating upward while the once-runaway expense lines are finally being reined in, signaling a complete recovery from the pandemic-era troughs and a transition into a high-yield growth phase.

Labor Market Labor remains the primary driver of operational expenses, yet recent trends signal a welcome shift toward fiscal stability. After a period of unprecedented volatility –peaking at an 8.9% average hourly wage increase in 2022 – the market has

entered a phase of normalization.

Hourly wage growth moderated to 3.2% in 2025, providing operators with the predictability essential for strategic budgeting.

While current growth rates remain slightly elevated compared to the 3.1% pre-pandemic average, the cooling of the labor market represents a significant victory. By pairing this stabilization with the systematic elimination of highcost contract labor, operators have successfully protected margins and bolstered net operating income (NOI), positioning the sector for sustainable long-term growth.

4.5%

AVERAGE ANNUAL INCREASE IN OPERATING EXPENSES Sources: Welltower, Ventas, Brookdale, LCS, and Atria/Sunrise

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O P E R AT I O N S AVERAGE HOURLY WAGE INCREASES

26.39

$

10%

8.9%

8%

6%

6.4%

6.1%

4.6%

4%

4.2% 3.2%

2%

0%

AVERAGE HOURLY WAGE FOR NURSING & RESIDENTIAL CARE FACILITIES NATIONWIDE UP 3.2% Y-O-Y

2020

2021

2022

Hourly Wage Increase

2023

2024

2025

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Pre-Pandemic Average (2015 - 2019)

Source: U.S. BLS

AVERAGE HOURLY WAGE

$18.96 - $19.92 $19.93 - $22.42 $22.43 - $24.31 $24.32 - $27.12 $27.13 - $31.86

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data reflects statewide average hourly wage for private Nursing & Residential Care facilities of all sizes. NAICS code 623

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SALES TRENDS Year-End Market Snapshot

2025 DEAL VOLUME BY ASSET TYPE

By the end of 2025, the seniors housing investment landscape shifted from a story of recovery to one of dominance. Following a robust start to the year, transaction velocity remained elevated in Q3 and Q4, driven by stabilizing interest rates and a flight to quality among institutional investors. 2025 saw one of the most consistent quarter by quarter sales volume totals in recent history.

MAJORITY ASSISTED LIVING

43.5%

MAJORITY INDEPENDENT LIVING SKILLED NURSING

34.2%

19.5%

ACTIVE ADULT 2.1% CCRC 0.7%

Assisted Living (AL) remains the undisputed market leader, ending the year with $7.74 billion in sales.

After accounting for 54% of volume in the first half ($2.03B), the sector saw an explosive second half, nearly

tripling its volume as investors aggressively targeted higher-margin assets with integrated memory care.

Independent Living (IL) emerged as the year’s greatest growth story, reaching $6.9 billion in total volume.

$3

120

$2

90

$1

60

$0

30

8

Number of Deals (excludes Affordable)

’2 Q3

’2 Q3

’2 Q1

’2 Q3

’2 Q1

’2 Q3

’2 Q1

’2 Q3

’2 Q1

’2 Q3

’2 Q1

Quarterly Volume Sources: RCA, LevinPro

5

150

4

$4

4

180

3

$5

3

210

2

$6

2

240

1

$7

1

270

0

$8

0

BILLIONS

TRANSACTION TRENDS

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SALES TRENDS This represents a staggering jump from the $1.55 billion reported at the mid-year mark. The surge indicates that the Independent Living recovery moved from a trend to a full-scale market repositioning, with IL assets now rivaling AL for the top spot in institutional portfolios.

Skilled Nursing (SNF) recorded $3.47 billion in transactions for the year. While the first half of the year saw a frantic pace ($2.05B), the sector actually cooled in the final six months. This suggests that the early-year activity was likely a

period of rapid consolidation that leveled off as operators focused on stabilizing their newly acquired higher-acuity beds.

In contrast, the Active Adult (AA) and Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRC) sectors remained niche plays. Active Adult finished with $370 million, failing to regain the momentum lost in early 2025. Similarly, CCRCs reported $120 million in sales, reflecting the inherent difficulty in trading large, complex Life Plan communities compared to more liquid rental models.

33.2%

Y-O-Y INCREASE IN AVERAGE PRICE PER UNIT IN 2025

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INVESTOR TRENDS Institutional capital entered 2025 already leaning into seniors housing, but by year-end it was clear the sector had moved into a new phase: fewer – but larger – deals, sharply higher pricing for best-in-class assets, and a structurally deeper buyer pool competing for scale and control.

is clear: there is a pronounced flight to quality, and scarcity value is firmly embedded in the pricing of exceptional assets.

Sales volume in 2025 increased 38.4% year over year, yet the overall number of transactions rose by less than 15%. That gap tells the story. Capital is concentrating at the top of the market, with investors underwriting bigger checks for fewer, higher-quality assets.

Pricing for premier seniors housing communities has broken away from the broader market in a way we have not seen before.

In 2025, the top quartile of Class A community pricing already commanded a significant premium over the market average price per unit. By year-end, that premium had accelerated to an unprecedented level, driven by transactions for truly best-in-class properties approaching the $400,000 per unit benchmark on average. The message from institutional buyers

40.2%

REIT

32.5%

OWNER/OPERATOR

10

This re-rating of Class A seniors housing is not just about headline prices; it is being validated in yields as well. In many core markets, cap rates for high-quality assets now sit in the low‑6% range, underscoring the intensity of competition for existing Class A product while reflecting strong conviction in both the sector’s fundamentals and the ability of leading operators to drive NOI growth over the next cycle.

The composition of the buyer pool in 2025 reinforces that narrative. What began as a private equity-dominated first half evolved into a more balanced contest among REITs, private equity, and sophisticated owner/operators. REITs ultimately retook the lead and, for the second consecutive year, emerged as the preferred exit path for sellers.

Private equity remained highly active, but the most notable shift came from owner/operators, who moved aggressively from being viewed primarily as sellers to becoming meaningful net acquirers.

DEAL VOLUME BY ACQUIRER TYPE

By teaming up with capital partners, these groups used 2025 to lock in long-term control of their operating platforms and expand at a regional or national scale.

The result is a structurally deeper, more competitive institutional buyer universe. REITs are paying for scale and long-term demographic upside. Private equity is targeting portfolio optimization and platform investments. Owner/operators are bidding to secure control over the real estate underpinning their operations. Together, they are forcing disciplined underwriting while still supporting firm – if not rising – pricing at the top end of the market.

For institutional investors, 2025 signaled that seniors housing has fully graduated into a core-plus, institutional asset class in select markets with the right sponsors.

Bigger deals, tighter cap rates, and an accelerating premium on bestin-class product suggest this is no longer just a demographic story; it is a market where operational excellence, platform strategy, and asset selection can drive outsized value creation in the years ahead.

2.6%

OTHER

24.7%

PRIVATE EQUITY

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BANKING TRENDS The seniors housing debt market is heading into 2026 with its strongest momentum since before COVID. Capital is back in size, but lender behavior and who does what have shifted meaningfully.

Banks, especially regionals, are setting the pace. After years on the sidelines, many are re-entering aggressively with nonrecourse options, cash-out refinances, lower rates, and a willingness to stretch proceeds for newer assets in strong primary and secondary markets, even at thinner in-place DSCRs. That bank led competition is pressuring other lender types on both pricing and structure.

450

HUD LOANS EXPECTED TO CLOSE IN FY2026, UP 33% Y-O-Y HUD remains the workhorse for more complex or non-core stories: older-vintage assets, secondary and tertiary locations, Medicaid exposure, 100% memory care, and skilled nursing. Where acuity, reimbursement, or market profile pushes beyond bank or GSE comfort, HUD is still the primary solution.

Among the GSEs, Freddie Mac is the key player for newer, privatepay assets in primary markets and will go head-to-head with banks on stabilized, institutional-quality deals. Fannie Mae’s presence in seniors housing is comparatively limited and not a major volume driver relative to Freddie and HUD. Debt funds are shifting, not shrinking. With banks offering cheaper capital on stabilized assets, funds are focusing on lease-up and transitional situations – providing higher loan-to-cost and flexible nonrecourse execution where bank or agency programs don’t fit. Life companies are active but remain a niche, specialized universe, even with a few new entrants.

Underwriting standards now diverge sharply by capital source. Banks and debt funds are accepting lower DSCRs, higher leverage, and more forward-looking NOI for newer assets in strong markets. HUD, Fannie, and Freddie are largely holding traditional programmatic discipline, creating two parallel tracks: tightly defined agency executions versus more marketdriven, flexible balance sheet and fund capital.

Lower benchmark rates and compressed spreads have pulled all-in borrowing costs down across the board. Banks, in particular, are delivering a step-change in terms –

nonrecourse structures, cash-out, and generous leverage while coverage is still ramping – making them the preferred execution for many core, private-pay assets.

New construction is back on the table. After a prolonged slowdown, more ground-up projects are emerging, especially in coastal markets, with broader activity expected as localized fundamentals justify new supply. Well-capitalized banks are actively seeking highquality construction loans, while debt funds remain a key option for sponsors requiring higher loan-to-cost or fully nonrecourse construction capital.

Net-net, seniors housing capital in 2026 is defined by both choice and clear segmentation. Borrowers can access HUD, banks, GSEs, debt funds, life companies, and selective REITs, with each occupying a distinct lane by asset quality, market, and business plan. For owners, operators, and developers – particularly with newer assets in strong markets – this is shaping up as a borrower-friendly window characterized by better pricing, higher proceeds, and increased structural flexibility. The key advantage lies in tailoring each financing to the right capital source while competition to deploy remains intense.

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MARKET TRENDS The seniors housing industry is undergoing a dramatic supply reset.

In 2025, new construction starts and the number of units actively under development have plummeted to levels not seen since the depths of the Great Recession – marking a historic low for the modern memory of the sector. Across both Independent Living and Assisted Living, no region features a robust pipeline by prior standards, and development activity is nowhere near keeping up with the powerful demographic tailwinds driving future demand.

National construction totals underscore the scale of this drop-off. Just 12,877 Independent Living and 12,693 Assisted Living units are currently under construction, meaning net absorption is now outpacing new development for the second consecutive year. The industry’s current construction levels are far below the projected demand.

Looking ahead, experts estimate that the sector will need to build at least two to three times the historical annual maximum to meet demand by 2030, a target that feels increasingly unreachable given the present climate.

This supply drought is transforming operating fundamentals. Tight market conditions, paired with high and rising occupancies

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across the country, are supporting sustained annual rent growth. With occupancy averaging nearly 91% for Independent Living and 88% for Assisted Living – and limited competition from new properties – operators are, at last, seeing the margin recovery they’ve sorely needed after pandemic-era and high-inflation challenges.

Monthly rents continue to climb, driven by these market constraints and robust absorption. The Northeast, for instance, leads the nation in occupancy and rents, with Assisted Living averaging $8,285 per unit and Independent Living tracking above $4,850, despite minimal new supply.

California and Florida, traditionally the engines of new product, have also seen their pipelines slow dramatically, reflecting industrywide caution and tighter access to development financing.

This sustained gap between demand and available product is fostering a more competitive, profitable environment for existing operators and investors. With net absorption repeatedly besting the pace of new construction, the market is set for continued upward pressure on rents and NOI. In many markets, operators are finding it easier to fill beds and rebuild financial strength, as residents have fewer choices and demand consistently overtakes supply.

This growing supply-demand gap is creating a highly competitive, profitable environment for current owners and operators. Without a ramp-up in development, the pressure on available units and the investment opportunity for wellpositioned stakeholders, is only set to intensify in the years ahead.

CONSTRUCTION, SUPPLY, & DEMAND 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0

2021

Net Absorption

2022

2023

Inventory Growth

2024

2025

Units Under Construction

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MAJORITY INDEPENDENT LIVING PROPERTY Region

Average Rent

Average Occupancy

Annual Absorption

Units Under Construction

California

$

5,493

90.5%

1,249

1,445

Florida

$

4,549

89.4%

1,346

1,500

Great Lakes

$

3,706

90.9%

2,298

2,167

Great Plains

$

3,518

90.1%

692

838

Mid-Atlantic

$

4,175

92.5%

2,274

3,612

Mountain West

$

4,300

89.6%

1,308

1,141

Northeast

$

4,854

93.0%

662

922

Pacific Northwest

$

4,819

91.1%

1,230

782

Southeast

$

4,444

90.6%

1,998

1,614

Texas

$

4,076

88.9%

657

2,040

United States

$

4,335

90.8%

14,056

12,936

Average Rent

Average Occupancy

Annual Absorption

Units Under Construction

MAJORITY ASSISTED LIVING PROPERTY Region California

$

7,800

88.9%

2,702

2,576

Florida

$

5,521

87.0%

849

1,841

Great Lakes

$

6,337

88.6%

3,714

1,940

Great Plains

$

5,810

88.9%

705

473

Mid-Atlantic

$

7,280

86.2%

1,452

1,045

Mountain West

$

5,932

88.5%

769

734

Northeast

$

8,285

91.1%

1,926

1,185

Pacific Northwest

$

7,300

87.4%

564

740

Southeast

$

5,816

87.2%

985

1,134

Texas

$

5,860

86.1%

1,152

1,025

United States

$

6,320

88.1%

14,942

12,877

REGION California Florida Great Lakes Mid-Atlantic Mountain West Northeast Pacific Northwest Plains Southeast Texas

Data Provided by NICMap Data Service; There may be discrepancies when aggregating data

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BERKADIA TOP 2025 TRANSACTIONS

GRAND LIVING BRIDGEWATER & CITRUS HILLS Coralville, IA; Hernando, FL | 337 Units | IL/AL/MC SALE & FINANCING | CLOSED July 2025

ABBEY DELRAY

Delray Beach, FL | 505 Units | CCRC SALE | CLOSED April 2025

THE OASIS AT CORAL REEF

Miami, FL | 201 Units | IL/AL/MC SALE | CLOSED June 2025

CLASS A TROPHY ASSET IN DC METRO

Washington, DC MSA | 210 Units | IL/AL/MC SALE & FINANCING | CLOSED December 2025

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CLASS A TROPHY ASSET IN AUSTIN

Austin, TX | 241 Units | IL/AL/MC SALE & FINANCING | CLOSED January 2025

PROJECT RAVEN

Nationwide | 4,395 Units | IL/AL/MC REFINANCE | Agency | CLOSED June 2025

WATERCREST SANTA ROSA BEACH

Santa Rosa Beach, FL | 107 Units | AL/MC SALE | CLOSED September 2025

ALLEGRO PARKLAND

Parkland, FL | 175 Units | IL/AL/MC REFINANCE | Bank | CLOSED December 2025

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C O N TA C T I N F O R M AT I O N INVESTMENT SALES ADVISORS

MORTGAGE BANKING

STEVE ERVIN

DAVID FASANO

Senior Managing Director, Practice Leader of Seniors Housing & Healthcare 312.576.9370

david.fasano@berkadia.com TX License #737206

MIKE GARBERS

Senior Managing Director, Practice Leader of Seniors Housing & Healthcare 407.810.5135

ROSS SANDERS

ross.sanders@berkadia.com MO License#2007038807

Managing Director 214.684.5766

bianca.andujo@berkadia.com

JAY HEALY

STEVEN MUTH

jay.healy@berkadia.com

steven.muth@berkadia.com

RAFAEL NOBO

AUSTIN SACCO

rafael.nobo@berkadia.com

austin.sacco@berkadia.com TX License #597755

GARRETT SACCO

EDWARD WILLIAMS

garrett.sacco@berkadia.com TX License #746407

ed.williams@berkadia.com

steve.ervin@berkadia.com

mike.garbers@berkadia.com FL License #BK3300367

Managing Director 843.806.4393

Senior Managing Director, Practice Leader of Seniors Housing & Healthcare 314.221.8543

BIANCA ANDUJO

Senior Vice President, Head of FHA/ HUD and Seniors Housing Finance 301.202.3575

Managing Director 518.573.3190

CODY TREMPER

Senior Managing Director, Practice Leader of Seniors Housing & Healthcare 214.215.1364

cody.tremper@berkadia.com TX License #622302

BROOKS MINFORD Senior Director 208.309.1404

Managing Director 407.803.3634

Managing Director 346.444.8997

Managing Director 713.598.0909

Managing Director 404.654.2346

brooks.minford@berkadia.com FL License #SL3277361 VA License #225241778

ANDREW LANZARO Director 646.600.7817

andrew.lanzaro@berkadia.com

15

EZEKIEL DUPREY

Lead Research Analyst 602.445.1632

ezekiel.duprey@berkadia.com

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