AIR NEW ZEALAND CUP Form
Teams
Latest Match
Round Eleven P
W
L
D
Last Met
Win TAB Value ASAP % Odds Odds Margin
Ratings Trend 30-07-09
Round 11 - 7:35pm Thursday October 8, Napier - Sky Sport 1 WLWWWW Hawke's Bay LLWLLL C-Manukau
W 22-19 v BOP
10
6
3
1
45 - 14
60%
$1.05
$1.30 W by 16
L 17-28 v Canterbury
10
2
8
0
14/9/08
20%
$8.00
$4.00
Round 11 - 7:35pm Friday October 9, Christchurch - Sky Sport 1 WLWWWW Canterbury LLLLLL Manawatu
W 28-17 v Counties
10
8
2
0
24 - 25
80%
$1.05
$1.15 W by 21
L 15-43 v Wellington
10
3
7
0
2/8/08
30%
$8.00
$8.00
W 38-10 v Otago
10
5
4
1
6 - 22
50%
$1.90
$2.10
WWWLLW Auckland
W 27-13 v Southland
10
5
5
0
10/8/08
50%
$1.85
$1.90
WWLWWW Waikato
L 10-38 v Taranaki
10
3
7
0
10 - 39
30%
$2.35
$2.10
W 33-22 v N Harbour
10
6
4
0
26/9/08
60%
$1.55
$1.90
W by 1
Otago fought hard on Taranaki’s day. With Thompson inspiring they bring plenty to the breakdown and the lineout. Down south they’ll make it tough for Waikato who are now 5 from 6. They’re looking more stable with Leonard, Donald and De Malmanche back. Sweeney is in everything and if they can lower the error rate and close some holes they could make the semis.
W by 2
Expect a gut buster. Both desperately need this for the semis and play similar no nonsense rugby. Southland were flat, even Robinson’s kicking was off, v Auckland. Back home they’ll show, driven by the work rates of Rutledge and McIntosh. Tasman again adapted best to ugly conditions in Whangarei. MacDonald, Goodman, Petenise and Cook are firing but mainly they bring team and can win this too.
W by 8
BOP are another who remain in the semi race. They battled tough v the ‘Bay’, but defensive lapses eventually cost them. NH were also downed in a close one v Waikato. They pounce on errors, can find wide and will have targeted this. Still, you’d think the ability of Bourke and Delaney to control options will give them territory and they’ll look to expose Harbour’s often sleepy defence.
W by 13
The stiff 1st half wind didn’t faze Northland who put in again v Canterbury. The reality is they lack the class to break good line defences. They haven’t beaten Wellington since 2000 and its difficult to see that changing here. The latter are finding some shape despite missing ABs and injury forced re-shuffles. Schwalger, Vito, Ramasy, Leuia, and Mathewson are all standing up and Jane is exceptional.
Round 11 - 5:30pm Saturday October 10, Invercargill - Sky Sport 1 WDWWLL Southland
L 13-27 v Auckland
10
6
3
1
6-3
60%
$1.55
$2.10
LWWLWW Tasman
W 21-16 v Northland
10
6
4
0
19/9/08
60%
$2.35
$1.90
Round 11 - 7:35pm Saturday October 10, Albany - Sky Sport 1 LLLWWL Nth Harbour
L 22-33 v Waikato
10
3
7
0
31 - 38
30%
$2.00
$2.10
LWLWLL BOP
L 19-22 v Hawkes Bay
10
6
4
0
16/8/08
60%
$1.75
$1.90
Round 11 - 2:35pm Sunday October 11, Whangarei - Sky Sport 1 LDLWLL Northland LWLLWW Wellington
L 16-21 v Tasman
10
3
6
1
27 - 43
30%
$5.50
$4.00
W 43-15 v Manawatu
10
6
4
0
13/8/05
60%
$1.13
$1.30
Despite an 11th table position and early positives, the ‘ASAP Ratings’ have Manawatu second last. They’ve fought hard and got a few individuals but they couldn’t compete up front or out back with Wellington. Canterbury were patchy away v Counties but will plan their run at the title now. With plenty of ABs back and at home with a shield to protect you’d expect a comfortable win.
W by 1
Round 11 - 2:35pm Saturday October 10, Dunedin - Sky Sport 1 WLLLWL Otago
The ‘Bay’ took advantage of BOP’s erratic defence to just get up. They could possibly drop one and still make the semis but it wouldn’t want to be this. With Waldrom, Guilford and Dagg excelling and Berquist’s accuracy that’s unlikely, albeit the careless handling and option issues. Counties again showed their talent for turning scraps into points out wide v Canterbury, but lack 80 minute grunt.
This should end the slim semi chances of one. Taranaki brought cohesion, defence and some width v Otago led by Tony Penn and Jason Eaton. Ripia’s territorial grasp continues to grow and that game would really trouble Auckland. The latter brought some urgency for a change and found enough running chances to get over a flat Southland. Kaino. Afoa, and Moeke looked good but the team will face real unity here.
Round 11 - 7:35pm Friday October 9, Nplymouth - Sky Sport 2 (Replayed 9.30pm Sky Sport 1) WWWLLW Taranaki
Match Day Form
04-10-09
Source: The All Sports and Prices Index (ASAP Index) produced by Cogito Limited. ASAP Ratings: The form guide is founded on the ‘ASAP Ratings’. After each game teams record a computerised rating. This rating is based on the scoring mechanism of the sport. Factors which go towards the rating include points differential and home/away percentages. The Graph: The graph tracks the trend of the ratings between the displayed dates and predicts the future margin before the addition of home advantage points for today’s game. Key: The form column indicates the last 6 matches. The home team is listed first. The ‘Value odds’ column indicates the odds required to gain value according to the ‘ASAP Ratings’. The ‘ASAP Margin’ forecasts the likely winning margin based on the ‘ASAP Ratings’. All Sports And Prices Index © Copyright 2009.
are all standing up and Jane is exceptional.
RANKINGS – RATINGS – ODDS Ratings Last Rank Week 1 1 2 2 3 3
Ratings Performance Meter
Teams Canterbury Wellington Auckland
P 10 10 10
W 8 6 5
L 2 4 5
D Streak 0 W4 0 W2 0 W1
Pts For 289 262 199
Pts Ave % Agst Score Win 176 29 80% 203 26 60% 191 20 50%
Bon Comp Comp ASAP Pts Pts Rank Ratings 5 37 1 33.5 5 29 3 28.7 6 26 7 26.7
TAB Odds $2.15 $4.00 $9.00
4 5 6 7 8
4 8 5 6 7
Hawke's Bay Taranaki Tasman BOP Southland
10 10 10 10 10
6 5 6 6 6
3 4 4 4 3
1 1 0 0 1
W4 W1 W2 L2 L2
266 209 229 209 181
208 188 174 182 173
27 21 23 21 18
60% 50% 60% 60% 60%
4 2 4 2 2
30 24 28 26 28
2 9 4 6 5
25.3 24.7 24.2 23.9 21.5
$9.00 $30.00 $30.00 $12.00 $12.00
9 10 11 12 13 14
10 9 11 12 13 14
Waikato Otago Nth Harbour Northland Manawatu C-Manukau
10 10 10 10 10 10
6 3 3 3 3 2
4 7 7 6 7 8
0 0 0 1 0 0
W3 L1 L1 L2 L6 L3
205 188 187 187 210 192
223 229 234 241 268 323
21 19 19 19 21 19
60% 30% 30% 30% 30% 20%
2 6 4 2 5 3
26 18 16 16 17 11
8 10 12 13 11 16
20.4 19 15.8 15.6 12.6 9.6
$9.00 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a
TEAMS
ASAP Rating
Graph
Form Guide Key
Copyright ASAP Index © 2009
AUCKLAND From: Tevita Mailau, Pauliasi Manu, Charlie Faumuina , Paea Fa’anunu, Francis Smith, Tom McCartney, Kurtis Haiu, Jay Williams, Andrew Van der Heijden, Dean Budd, Chris Lowrey, Peter Saili, Onosa’i Auva’a, Hamish Paterson, Taniela Moa, Grayson Hart, Ash Moeke, Daniel Bowden, Benson Stanley, Winston Stanley, Jamie Helleur, Teddy Stanaway , Thomas Timani, Dave Thomas, Atieli Pakalani, Paul Williams, John Afoa, Jerome Kaino, Keven Mealamu, Joe Rokocoko, Isaia Toeava
BAY OF PLENTY From: James McGougan, Marcel Cummings-Toone, Culum Rettalick, Luke Braid, Joe Savage, Matt Vant Leven, Josh Hohneck, Zac Hohneck, Josh Olsen, John Moore, Ted Tauroa, Colin Bourke, John Pareanga , Josh Katene, Solomon King, Junior Poluleuligaga, Josh Hall, Phil Burliegh, Mike Delaney, Cory Aporo, Zar Lawrence, Lance MacDonald, Jason Hona, Wayne Hughson, Clinton Toopi, Nick McCashin, Nigel Hunt, Tanerau Latimer, Andre Ellison (ol), Ben Smith (ol)
COUNTIES-MANAKU STEELERS From: Cody Martin, Courtney McKay, Sikeli Nabou, Sherwin Stowers, Matt Holloway, Augustine Pulu, DJ Forbes, Siale Piutau, Waka Setitaia, Josh Hall, Ahsee Tuala,Fritz Lee, Jamie Metcalf, Lelia Masaga, Mark Selwyn, Samisoni Fisilau, Tim Nanai Williams, Siua Halanukonuka, Ilisa Maasi, Jason Roache, Rees Logan, Viliami Fihaki, David Raikuna, Graham Dewes, Jamie Chipman, Seremaia Tagicakibau, Kojak Faioso, Notise Tauafao, Simon Lemalu, Tasesa Lavea, Josh Hall (ol), Matt Holloway (ol)
HAWKE’S BAY From: Hika Elliot, Ash Dixon, Clint Newland, Sona Taumalolo, Josh Keys, Jodi Allen, Ross Kennedy, Bryn Evans, Matt Egan, Michael Johnson, Karl Lowe, Thomas Waldrom, George Naoupu, Adam Bradey, Hugh Reed, Pama Petia, Chris Eaton, Dane Shelford, Matt Berquist, Andrew Horrell, Aayden Clarke, Sam Giddens, Jason Shoemark (captain), Richard Buckman, Mark Jackman, Israel Dagg, Zac Guildford, Jason Kupa, Neil Thomson, Bryn Evans
MANAWATU TURBOS CANTERBURY From: Andrew Olorenshaw, Rodney Ah You,Peter Borlase, Corey Flynn, Ti’i Paulo, Will Catherwood, Luke Romano, James Broadhurst, Sam Whitelock, Matt Todd, Michael Paterson, George Whitelock, Ash Parker, Nasi Manu, Willie Heinz, Tyson Keats, Andy Ellis, Dan Carter, Colin Slade, Stephen Brett, Tim Bateman, Ryan Crotty, Adam Whitelock, Casey Laulala, Chris Small, Sean Maitland, Tu Umaga-Marshall, James Paterson, Sam Monaghan, Isaac Ross, Brad Thorn, Owen Franks, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw, Wyatt Crockett
From: Grant Polson, Talau Hala, David Te Moana, Ma’afu Fia, Sean O’Connor, Rob Foreman, James Goode, Reece Robinson, Lisiate Fa’aoso, Michael FitzgeraldNick Crosswell, Hamish Gosling, Josh Bradnock, Doug Tietjens, Bertus MulderBrent Thompson, Aaron Smith, Aaron Good, Aaron Cruden, Isaac Thompson,Francis Bryant, Johnny Leota, Tavita Taufui, Andre Taylor, Lote Raikabula, Tomasi Cama, Kurt Baker, Casey Stone
NORTH HARBOUR From: James Afoa, Mike Reid, Ben Afeaki, James Parsons, Michael Mayhew, Anthony Boric, Filo Paulo, James King, Chris Smith, Malakai Ravulo, Tom Chamberlain, Richard Mayhew, Robbie Colhoun, Vili Ma’afu , Chris Smylie, Matt France, Mike Harris, Ben Botica, Andrew Mailei,, Anthony Tuitavake, George Pisi , Nafi Tuitavake, Josh York, Rudi Wulf, Jack McPhee, Ken Pisi, Tony Woodcock, Luke McAlister
NORTHLAND From: Baker Steve Caine Rhyan, Carpenter Derek Clutterbuck Matt, Collins Justin, Collins Nick, Davies Justin, Dow Tim, Eyre Cameron, Fakafanua Damien, Fonua Sione, Gadolo Eroni, Gilmore Brook, Goodwin Dan, Griffin Roy, Haitana Karl, Hamilton Luke, Jowitt Cameron, McKenty Joel, Munroe Lachie, Murray Bronson, O’Connor Pat, Payne Jared, Ranger Rene, Tuu’u Mikaele, Wallis Matt, Woodman Troy, Elrick Jon
OTAGO From: Keith Cameron, Tom Donnelly, Paul Grant, Sam Hibbard, Eben Joubert, Seko Kalou, Jason Macdonald, Hoani Matenga, Kees Meeuws, Peter Mirrielees, Ben Nolan, Charlie O’Connell, Steven Setephano, Alando Soakai (Captain), Adam Thomson, Hayden Triggs, Sean Romans (Vice Captain), Johnny Legg, Chris Noakes, Aaron Bancroft, Luke Herden, Glenn Dickson, Andrew Parata, Brett Mather, Karne Hesketh, Lucky Mulipola, Fetu’u Vainikolo, Ben Smith, Ryan Shortland, Michael Witt
SOUTHLAND From: Andrew Olorenshaw, Rodney Ah You,Peter Borlase, Corey Flynn, Ti’i Paulo, Will Catherwood, Luke Romano, James Broadhurst, Sam Whitelock, Matt Todd, Michael Paterson, George Whitelock, Ash Parker, Nasi Manu, Willie Heinz, Tyson Keats, Andy Ellis, Dan Carter, Colin Slade, Stephen Brett, Tim Bateman, Ryan Crotty, Adam Whitelock, Casey Laulala, Chris Small, Sean Maitland, Tu Umaga-Marshall, James Paterson, Sam Monaghan, Isaac Ross, Brad Thorn, Owen Franks, Kieran Read, Richie McCaw, Wyatt Crockett
TARANAKI From: T. Penn (Captain), C. Carmichael, L. Corlett, J. Hincho, T. Tutavaha, A. Hore,S. Cleaver, M. Bent, N. Soqeta, C. Clark (vice Captain), L. Power, J. EatonJ. Willis, B. Souness, C. Walker, S. Waldrom, J. Hoeata, S. Vunisa, B. Goodin, B. Phillips, K. O’ Donnell, W. Ripia, J. Hayward, J. Cameron, N. Hohaia, W. Rickardsm, S. Austin, P. Perez, E. Jenkins, A. Malo, Andrew Hore, Jason Eaton
TASMAN From: Hamish Cochrane, Ben Franks, Tristan Moran, Sakaria Taulafo, Quentin MacDonald, Daniel Perrin, Alex Ainley, Anthony Elisala, James Foster, Joseph Wheeler, Mark Bright, Daniel Crichton, Glen Gregory, Daniel Hyatt, Jonathan Poff, Zane Winslade, Shaun Begg, Kahn Fotualii, Matty James, James Marshall, Andrew Goodman, Sione Holani, Ammon Matuauto, Mike Pehi, Kade Poki, Blair Cook, James Kamana, Afeleki Pelenise, Robbie Malneek.
WAIKATO From: Ole Avei, Vern Kamo, Hikairo Forbes, Ben May, Kieran Ramage, Nathan White, Kent Fife, Romana Graham, Toby Lynn, Kevin O’Neill, Ray Allen, Jack Lam, Sione Lauaki, Liam Messam (captain), Jordan Smiler, Dominiko Waqaniburotu, David Bason, Josh Sutherland, Sam Christie, Trent Renata, Callum Bruce, Roimata Hansell-Pune, Jackson Willison, Tim Mikkelson, Henry Speight, Dwayne Sweeney, Savenaca Tokula, Sosene Anesi, Aled de Malmanche, Stephen Donald, Brendon Leonard, Mils Muliaina, Sitiveni Sivivatu
WELLINGTON From: Adrian Barone, Anthony Bradshaw, Dane Coles, Arden David, Fa’atonu Fili, Scott Fuglistaller, Kaipati Gaualofa, Joe Hill, Michael Hobbs, Daniel Kirkpatrick, Alapati Leiua, Faifili Levave, Serge Lilo, Matt Luamanu, Motu Matu’u, Chris Middleton, Api Naikatini, Charlie Ngatai, Tomasi Palu, Anthony Perenise, Brett Pigott, Buxton Popoalii, Daniel Ramsey, Mark Reddish, Ged Robinson, Julian Savea, David Smith, Apoua Stewart, Shaun Treeby, Frae Wilson, Rodney So’oialo, Neemia Tialata, Hosea Gear, Cory Jane, Ma’a Nonu, Conrad Smith, Piri Weepu