CUTRIC Canadian ZEB Database Report #3: December 2023 by CUTRIC_CRITUC

Canadian ZEB Database™: Canada's Zero-Emission Bus Landscape and Transitioning Readiness

Knowledge Series Report #3, 2023 December 2023 Authors: Desmond Jaricha, Social Scientist: Low Carbon Smart Mobility Jessica Hanson, Manager: Project Manager: Zero Emission Bus (ZEB) Initiatives Titash Choudhury, Manager: Business Development and Social Analytics Dr. Josipa Petrunić, President & CEO 1

COPYRIGHT © 2023 This document is for the sole use of the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC). The document contains proprietary and confidential information that shall not be reproduced in any manner, or disclosed to or discussed with any other parties, without the express written permission of the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium. Information in this document is to be considered the intellectual property of CUTRIC in accordance with Canadian copyright law. This report was prepared by the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium. The material in it reflects the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium’s best judgment, in the light of the information available to it, at the time of preparation. Any use which a third party makes of this report, or any reliance on or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third parties. The Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium accepts no responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made or actions based on this report. Expansion of the Canadian ZEB DatabaseTM was made possible through funding and support provided by Infrastructure Canada.

Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC) Consortium de recherche et d’innovation en transport urbain au Canada (CRITUC) 18 King Street East, Suite 1400 Toronto, ON M5C 1C4 info@cutric-crituc.org

Table of contents List of figures ............................................................................................................................ 4 List of acronyms ........................................................................................................................5 Acknowledgments.................................................................................................................... 6 Executive summary .................................................................................................................. 7 1.

Background ........................................................................................................................9

Objectives ......................................................................................................................... 13

Database design and development .............................................................................. 14

ZEB survey ........................................................................................................................ 15

Definitions and assumptions ......................................................................................... 15 5.1. ZEBs in Canada........................................................................................................... 16 5.2. Stages of transit electrification in Canada .......................................................... 16 5.3. Infrastructure ..............................................................................................................17 5.4. Electric vehicle supply equipment..........................................................................17 5.5. Data inclusion criteria ............................................................................................... 18 5.6. Additional criteria in the report .............................................................................. 18 5.7. Criteria not included in the report.......................................................................... 19

Data analysis ................................................................................................................... 20

Current status of ZEBs in Canada ................................................................................ 21 7.1. Current status of BEBs .............................................................................................26 7.2. Charging infrastructure for BEBs .......................................................................... 31 7.3. Challenges of BEBs ...................................................................................................33 7.4. Current status of FCEBs ......................................................................................... 34 7.5. Fueling infrastructure ............................................................................................... 37 7.6. Challenges of FCEBs ................................................................................................. 37

Trends in transit electrification .................................................................................... 39

CNG to RNG (R-CNGs) buses ........................................................................................ 43

10. Canadian ZEB Database™ challenges ......................................................................... 44 11. Next steps ........................................................................................................................ 46 12. Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 47 13. References....................................................................................................................... 48

List of figures Figure 1: ZEB Database™ components

Figure 2: Stages of electrification

Figure 3: Total ZEBs across all stages of zero emissions transitioning in 2023

Figure 4: Number of ZEBs in all stages of transition, by year

Figure 5: Total ZEBs by year

Figure 6: ZEBs according to stages of transitioning

Figure 7: Total number of ZEBs in funding, procurement, commissioning and inservice

Figure 8: BEBs across all stages of transitioning by province

Figure 9: BEBs across Canada by stages

Figure 10: BEBs by vehicle manufacturer

Figure 11: BEBs by length

Figure 12: BEB charging infrastructure

Figure 13: Distribution of chargers according to charging rates

Figure 14: FCEBs by province and territory

Figure 15: FCEBs by stages

Figure 16: FCEBs by length

Figure 17: ZEB linear future trend 2018–2026

Figure 18: ZEBs future exponential trend 2018–2026

Figure 19: Linear trend analysis of in-service BEBs from 2018–2026

Figure 20: Exponential trend analysis of BEBs “in-service” from 2018-2026

List of acronyms AV

Autonomous vehicle

BEB

Battery electric bus

CIB

Canada Infrastructure Bank

CNG

Compressed natural gas

CUTRIC

Canadian Urban Transit Research & Innovation Consortium

Electric vehicle

EVSE

Electric vehicle supply equipment

FCEB

Fuel cell electric bus

GHG

Greenhouse gas

HFC

Hydrogen fuel cell

ICE

Intercity Express

Kilowatt

NRCan

Natural Resources Canada

R-CNGs

Renewable compressed natural gas

RNG

Renewable natural gas

TCO

Total cost of ownership

TTC

Toronto Transit Commission

YRT

York Region Transit

ZEB

Zero emissions bus

ZETF

Zero Emissions Transit Fund

Acknowledgments CUTRIC would like to thank all the municipalities, transit agencies, crown corporations, and not-for-profit, private and public operators who participated in the 2023 Canadian ZEB Database™ survey.

Executive summary Canadian ZEB Database™: Canada's Zero-emission Bus Landscape and Transition Readiness Report #3 is part of CUTRIC’s Knowledge Series publication program. It supersedes the corresponding Report #2 published in The

November 2022. This updated report highlights the state of ZEB technology adoption to October 2023, documenting the ZEB landscape across Canada – from pronouncements to purchase, (as made by city councils, for example) through to procurement and actual deployment on roads. It classifies ZEB technologies as follows: Battery electric buses (BEBs), powered by electricity stored in a rechargeable onboard battery pack Fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs), powered by a hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) that converts hydrogen into electricity and stores it in an on-board battery Renewable compressed natural gas (R-CNG) buses are compressed natural gas (CNG) buses fuelled with a blend of CNG and renewable natural gas (RNG), which is made using refined or upgraded anaerobically generated biogas instead of traditional fossil fuels. Autonomous electric shuttles powered by electricity stored in a rechargeable onboard battery pack; these mobility modes constitute an emerging class of shared mobility for first-kilometre/last-kilometre applications in local transit systems In-depot and on-route charging infrastructure for BEBs (CUTRIC does not have data on hydrogen supply chains or electrolyzers, but plans to do so in the future) This report uses data directly provided by transit agencies, municipalities, crown corporations, not-for-profit organizations, private and public operators, and the public domain to establish provinces’ and municipalities' overall readiness and progress towards decarbonizing their fleets. It covers the number, types, stages, provinces of location, and manufacturers of the ZEBs deployed across Canada. The report also highlights the issues and challenges faced by transit agencies in their decarbonization plans.

The data reveal that BEBs are the most prevalent ZEBs in Canada. The number of BEBs has increased significantly in the past year, thanks to collaborations among various stakeholders, including government, transit agencies, manufacturers, and consultants such as CUTRIC. The data also show that the distribution of ZEBs is not uniform across Canada, with some provinces and territories, such as Ontario and Quebec, leading the transition process. Others, meanwhile, have not yet adopted any ZEBs. This finding suggests the need for more incentives and funding programs to encourage greater participation of those agencies and provinces. The data also identify the manufacturers that are the main suppliers of ZEBs in Canada for the various technologies. Using the data from the Canadian ZEB Database™, this report predicts that the Government of Canada will achieve its goal of introducing 5,000 ZEBs by 2026. CUTRIC continues to track the adoption of ZEBs nationwide.

1. Background The Canadian ZEB Database™ serves as a national database that monitors the Canadian ZEB landscape and quantifies the transition to full ZEB fleets. This section provides context for CUTRIC’s initiatives that led to the development of the Canadian ZEB Database™ and their associated reports. It describes CUTRIC’s steps to help transit agencies align with the Government of Canada’s vision to help school boards and municipalities purchase 5,000 zero-emission school and transit buses over the next five years. ZEBs are a key factor in Canada’s overall efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fight climate change. In 2021, the transportation sector in Canada accounted for 25 per cent of Canada's GHG emissions, with public transit contributing 1 per cent of Canada's transportation emissions [1]. ZEB technology enables the heavy-duty sector to achieve well-to-wheel1 decarbonization of transportation by promoting transit use over personal vehicle use, which will have long-term benefits for reducing GHG emissions from the automotive sector. According to the Government of Canada, ZEBs will help reduce pollution, create jobs, promote economic growth, and build clean and inclusive communities [2]. In addition, transit operators will benefit from lower maintenance and operating costs. In October 2020, Infrastructure Canada announced C$1.5 billion to accelerate the adoption of ZEBs and charging infrastructure [3]. In February 2021, it announced plans to spend another C$14.9 billion on public transportation projects over the next eight years. And, in August 2021, Infrastructure Canada launched the Zero Emission Transit Fund (ZETF), a C$2.75 billion fund to support public transit and school bus operators across Canada in purchasing a targeted 5,000 ZEBs over five years. The ZETF enables public transit agencies and school boards to electrify their fleets. It is also intended to create Canadian jobs in the zero-emissions manufacturing sector [2]. The ZETF program also includes a C$10 million feasibility and planning fund for municipalities and transit agencies aiming to complete planning activities for their fleet electrification.

“Well-to-wheel” is an analogy that means from the original energy source to the vehicle’s tailpipe emissions.

CUTRIC was selected by Infrastructure Canada as the National Planning Service to deploy funds through technical analyses. It entered into a Contribution Agreement with the Government of Canada to support transit agencies by producing comprehensive and accurate ZEB electrification planning and implementation studies from 2022 to 2026. During this time period, CUTRIC is also supporting transit agencies in their electrification planning efforts by hosting focus groups with transit agencies and manufacturers of buses and chargers to obtain data regarding shared experiences, concerns and recommendations related to decarbonized transit technologies and implementation challenges. In 2021, CUTRIC initiated its monthly ZEB Committee and allied Power Providers & Utilities (PPU) Transit Decarbonization Committee. These committees bring together transit agencies, manufacturers, utilities and power providers to share valuable knowledge about transit fleet electrification. As part of the ZEB Committee initiative, CUTRIC launched the Canadian ZEB Database™. This database includes a list of Canadian transit agency electrification plans consolidated into a single national database, along with quantitative data on the status of vehicle and charger adoption in the country. The purpose of this database is to provide federal, provincial and municipal governments, transit agencies and manufacturers with a better understanding of the successes and challenges transit agencies face in their electrification efforts. It also serves as a monitoring tool to determine whether the Government of Canada is on track to achieve its goal of deploying 5,000 ZEBs by 2026. In June 2022, CUTRIC published its first Canadian ZEB Database™: Canada’s ZeroEmissions Bus Landscape and Electrification Readiness Report as part of its Knowledge Series publication program. That report showed that prior to April 2022 when data collection was completed, 1,696 ZEBs had been introduced in Canada at various stages of adoption. BEBs accounted for 55 per cent of ZEBs, while CNG buses and FCEBs accounted for 42 per cent and 3 per cent respectively. The report also highlighted several challenges and opportunities for advancing ZEB adoption in Canada, such as regulatory barriers, infrastructure gaps, consumer awareness, financing options, innovation potential and international collaboration [7].

The ZEB Database™ was followed by Canada’s Zero-Emissions Bus Landscape and Electrification Readiness Report #2 issued in November 2022, which showed growth in the sector. The report showed that from May to September 2022, a total of 1,922 ZEBs were introduced in Canada. BEBs constituted 61.2 per cent of these ZEBs, while CNG buses and FCEB buses constituted 36.8 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. The report also identified the key challenges and opportunities for ZEB adoption, such as cost, range and maintenance of ZEBs, interoperability of charging infrastructure, and issues related to ZEB policies and regulations [4]. The ZEB Database™: Canada’s Zero-Emissions Bus Landscape and Transition Readiness Report #3, issued in November 2023, reflects the progress made by Canada in transitioning to ZEBs from September 2022 to October 2023. This report shows that 5,426 ZEBs were introduced in Canada over that time and are at different stages of transition. This is an exponential rise in the number of ZEBs from Report #1 and #2. Of this total, BEBs constitute 98 per cent, while FCEBs constitute 2 per cent. Report #3 also highlights challenges and lessons learned in ZEB deployment, such as capacity restraints at transit facilities, lead times for vehicle and electrical equipment, and price inflation and funding uncertainty for purchasing ZEBs and allied infrastructure beyond 2026.

The Canadian ZEB Database™ is important for the public transit and public policy sectors for the following reasons: o Monitoring the landscape: The ZEB Database™ is a national database that monitors the Canadian ZEB landscape [4]. It provides an overview of the electrification and decarbonization status of transit agencies, municipalities and provinces nationwide [4]. o Planning and transition support: Transitioning to ZEBs requires careful planning and understanding of operational and technical differences between the different propulsion technologies [5]. The ZEB Database™ provides ZEB transition studies and comparative analyses of value to public transit agencies [5]. o Promoting sustainable technologies: The ZEB Database™ supports transit agencies in their transition to sustainable technologies, such as ZEBs, by providing them with information and analysis on the status and adoption of ZEBs

in their regions. [4]. This is a crucial step in meeting Canada’s 2050 target for reducing pollution [5]. o Economic growth and job creation: The ZEB Database™ provides a comprehensive overview of zero emissions technologies across various stages of development, from emerging to mature. This enables the identification of current and future investment opportunities that can foster economic growth in the low-carbon economy, and generate new employment opportunities in the manufacturing, installation, maintenance and operation of ZEBs and allied infrastructure. [2]. o Climate change mitigation: The ZEB Database™ supports the fight against climate change by helping document the total number of GHG-reducing ZEBs on the roads [4]. o Supply chain and procurement trends: The ZEB Database™ highlights issues arising in supply chain and procurement patterns.

2. Objectives In this third report, CUTRIC aims to offer an update on the standardized national scan, analysis and characterization of the Canadian ZEB landscape. This report presents accurate and updated information detailing the current state of ZEBs, allied infrastructure deployments and future trends in Canada for 2023. The report documents transit agency progress toward ZEB procurement, adoption and deployment, and compares it to the Government of Canada’s target. The objectives of this report are to provide the following outcomes:

3. Database design and development The Canadian ZEB Database™ is grounded in a rigorous methodological approach that guarantees the precise collection, analysis and representation of ZEB data across transit agencies and jurisdictions. The successful deployment of ZEBs requires meticulous strategic planning, and a comprehensive understanding of the technology and implications of bus-fleet electrification [6]. This principle is embodied in the design of the ZEB DatabaseTM, which aims to support the planning needs required to enable transit agencies, municipalities and private transit operators to successfully transition to ZEBs. The Canadian ZEB Database™ is composed of three components:

Figure 1: ZEB Database™ components

Data: Data for the Canadian ZEB Database™ is composed of primary and raw information collected from various sources. The two main data sources are the Canadian ZEB Database™ survey, which is CUTRIC’s transit agency-focused survey, and transit agency and manufacturer web sites. Data collected through these sources includes vehicle assets and infrastructure data that help monitor the current state of ZEBs in Canada [7]. Rollup sheet: The rollup sheet organizes raw data into a structured format. It serves as an intermediary between the raw data and the analytics dashboard, making it easier for researchers and analysts to understand the information [7]. CUTRIC uses Smartsheet™, a cloud-based data software, to collect, analyze and store all data related to the Canadian ZEB Database™. The rollup sheet is populated directly from the “data” Smartsheet™ and is designed to automatically organize the information in a standardized layout highlighting key values [7]. 14

Analytics dashboard: The dashboard is a visual representation of the data collected. It provides a snapshot of the current state of ZEBs in Canada, and a review of the provinces and municipalities that have committed to procuring ZEBs over the next two years. The dashboard is designed to support transit agencies and municipalities in tracking their efforts toward transportation electrification [7]. In summary, raw data are collected, structured and organized in a rollup sheet, which is then visually represented in an analytics dashboard for simplified understanding and tracking of Canada’s progress toward transportation electrification and decarbonization.

4. ZEB survey The ZEB survey plays a crucial role in gathering data for the Canadian ZEB Database™, providing valuable insights into Canada’s progress towards zero emissions transitioning. The ZEB survey is sent to transit agencies to obtain direct data inputs related to the ZEB DatabaseTM. A link to the survey is emailed to municipalities, transit agencies, crown corporations, non-profits, and private and public fleets and agencies. Upon receipt of initial responses, CUTRIC follows up with the remaining participants through email reminders and telephone calls to maximize response rates. For Report #1, which covers data collected to June 2022, the ZEB survey was mainly distributed to CUTRIC's member transit agencies. For Report #2, the participant base was expanded, and the data collected from June to September 2022 included nonmember transit agencies. From September 2022 onwards, CUTRIC further expanded the reach of its survey participant group through targeted outreach efforts to large, medium and small transit agencies, including both member and non-member agencies. CUTRIC’s objective is to attain a participation rate of 100 per cent from transit agencies across Canada by 2026.

5. Definitions and assumptions The ZEB Database™ is predicated on several definitions and assumptions, which have been validated to represent the methodological rigour of the ZEB Database™ accurately. These assumptions are as follows:

5.1.

ZEBs in Canada

The following definitions outline the types of ZEBs considered and captured in the ZEB Database™. 1. Battery electric buses (BEBs) powered by electricity stored in a rechargeable onboard battery pack 2. Fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) powered by electricity stored in a rechargeable onboard battery pack, which is produced via a hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) that converts hydrogen into electrical power onboard. 3. Autonomous electric shuttles powered by electricity stored in a rechargeable onboard battery pack; these mobility modes constitute an emerging class of shared mobility for first-kilometre/last-kilometre applications in local municipal systems

5.2.

Stages of transit electrification in Canada

Figure 2: Stages of electrification

Below are the six definitions of the stages of electrification – from initial conceptualization by an agency through to full deployment with passengers onboard. Stage 1. Pronouncement is defined as the stage at which a governing body issues a public statement of intent to commence or explore a transition to zero emissions. Stage 2. Feasibility study is defined as the stage at which there is commitment to engage an external entity for a predictive assessment of partial or full-fleet ZEB

applications, based on parameters such as energy consumption, costing and performance feasibility. Stage 3. Funding is defined as the stage at which a city, provincial or federal governing authority has committed to fund the project. Stage 4. Procurement is defined as the stage at which a contractual obligation to purchase ZEBs or related infrastructure has been initiated or signed. Stage 5. Commissioning is defined as the stage at which ZEBs are deployed preservice, undergoing checks, inspections and testing for safety. Stage 6. In-service (operating) is defined as the stage at which revenue service commences.

5.3.

Infrastructure

The ZEB Database™ captures charging and fueling infrastructure for ZEBs according to the following criteria: Electric buses o Types of charging stations, such as in-depot and on-route charging stations o Location of charging stations, such as a garage depot or on-route o Number of charging stations o Charging rate at a charging station in kW o Charging model, whether series or parallel Hydrogen buses o Hydrogen production method o Hydrogen delivery details

5.4.

Electric vehicle supply equipment

Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) refers to devices that provide electric power for recharging BEBs. The Canadian ZEB Database™ records EVSE for BEBs according to the following criteria: o Number of charger cabinets (devices that provide power to charge the batteries of electric buses)

o Number of charging dispensers (dispensers connect cabinets to charging hardware and function as a control device) o Type of charging hardware (pantograph or plug-in) o Manufacturer(s) of charging equipment for the above criteria

5.5.

Data inclusion criteria

The Canadian ZEB Database™ report is based on data collected from the following sources: o Transit agency or municipal/regional websites o Approved council meeting minutes, reports, resolutions and strategies o Transit agency interviews or direct outreach by telephone, video or email o Press releases o Focus groups hosted by CUTRIC, including focus groups held at the CUTRIC members-only ZEB Committee and CUTRIC Members meetings o Surveys o CUTRIC in-house reports, policy briefs and white papers o Other, for example, public policy documents issued by funding bodies

5.6.

Additional criteria in the report

The Canadian ZEB Database™ report includes additional data on the following criteria: o Modes or platform type: Bus and electric trolley o Types of ZEBs: BEBs, FCEBs, autonomous shuttles, specialized transit services and platforms, and associated infrastructure o Operational standards for EVSE: OppCharge™, J3105, J1772, etc. o Stage of transit electrification: Pronouncement, feasibility and modelling, funding and financing, procurement, commissioning and inservice deployment o Geography: Canadian provinces and municipalities

o Other data as required to define quantitative and qualitative measures of electrified assets, for example, number, type, length, etc.

5.7.

Criteria not included in the report

The Canadian ZEB Database™ report provides insights into the zero-emission transition process of transit agencies only. This is because the DatabaseTM originated from focus groups that CUTRIC hosted, where transit agencies and manufacturers who are early adopters of ZEB technology shared their experiences, challenges and recommendations for those who have not started the electrification journey.

The Canadian ZEB Database™ report enables transit agencies to learn from the valuable lessons of other transit agencies and apply them to their own situations. The following criteria are not included in the report: o

Rail and other non-bus modes

Intercity express (ICE) buses with gasoline or diesel, including hybrid diesel-electric buses, and associated infrastructure assets

School buses and non-revenue vehicles

Private fleets or private interests

Non-Canadian jurisdictions

Other data not essential to characterize the quantity and quality of transit electrification, such as performance data, weather and operating conditions, ridership numbers, revenue, political context and policy landscape.

6. Data analysis CUTRIC is committed to continuously updating the Canadian ZEB Database™. The third iteration of this database, therefore, includes data collected after September 2022, following the data collection termination period for data collected for Report #2 [4]. On August 25, 2023, CUTRIC distributed the third ZEB survey to 140 transit agencies across Canada. Data collection was undertaken between August 25 and October 13, 2023. During this time period, the ZEB survey received responses from 36 transit agencies, with participation from a diverse range of participants. This is a slight decrease from the 43 transit agencies that participated in the second ZEB report. At the time of responding, some participating agencies were just entering the initial stages of transitioning to a zero emissions fleet, such as “pronouncements” and “feasibility studies.” Others had previously participated in the ZEB survey and were at a more advanced transition stage such as “funding”, “procurement,” “commissioning” or even “inservice” (Figure 2). For these agencies more advanced in the process, changes in responses compared to response data received for Report #2 in 2022 indicate positive, and sometimes rapid progression in the transition journey. For example, in the one-year period intervening the ZEB Survey carried out for Report #2 in 2022 and the ZEB Survey carried out for Report #3 in 2023, some participating agencies had moved from the “pronouncement” stage to the “feasibility” or “funding” stage. Other agencies advanced even further to the full “procurement” stage this year, having been in the “funding” stage in 2022. The ZEB survey also indicates some areas of stagnation, with certain transit agencies at the same stage of transition now as in 2022. The factors leading to this stagnation are discussed later in the analysis. The data received from transit agencies is supplemented by data collected through various sources, such as public transit agency websites, press releases from media outlets, peer-reviewed academic articles, webinars and workshops. CUTRIC also incorporates data from the web sites of manufacturers that specialize in ZEB vehicles and charging and fueling infrastructure. These varied sets of raw data are consolidated to form the basis of the ZEB Database™ descriptive statistics and comparative analysis of ZEB-adoption trends in Canada. 20

For this report, responses and data received before October 13, 2023, have been included. Any data received after October 13 have not been included. Those data inputs will be consolidated in the fourth edition of the ZEB survey and Report #4, scheduled for release in January 2024. The fourth edition of the ZEB Survey and ZEB Database™ report will feature survey enhancements, as well, which are the result of ongoing database augmentation aimed at improving the comprehensiveness and utility of the ZEB Database™.

7. Current status of ZEBs in Canada As of October 23, 2023, the Canadian ZEB landscape comprises 5,426 ZEBs at different stages of transition, starting from “pronouncements'' through to “feasibility studies”, “funding”, “procurement”, “commissioning” and “in-service.” BEBs constitute 98 per cent of all existing national transit electrification plans, while FCEBs constitute 2 per cent. Figure 3 provides an overview of the quantity of ZEBs within Canada. The figure represents 5,330 BEBs and 96 FCEBs at various stages of transition, ranging from initial pronouncement to active service. 96

5330 Battery Electric Bus

Fuel Cell Electric Bus

Figure 3: Total ZEBs across all stages of zero emissions transitioning in 2023

CUTRIC has not received any data indicating any stage of transition towards the deployment of autonomous shuttles. However, it continues to monitor developments in the ZEB landscape regarding this technology. Since 2022, when data were last collected, there has been a significant increase in the adoption of ZEBs by transit agencies in Canada. This trend is visually represented in Figure 4, which delineates the variances in data between ZEB surveys conducted in September 2022 and October 2023, respectively. As shown in Figure 4, the number of ZEBs in Canada has risen more than threefold (346 per cent). 6000

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635

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Figure 4: Number of ZEBs in all stages of transition, by year

The adoption of ZEBs has increased significantly due to several factors. According to the data, technological innovations have enhanced the suitability of ZEBs to Canadian transit conditions, leading to their increased popularity. In addition, the rate of increase reflects concerted efforts by provinces, municipalities, transit agencies, manufacturers, and other stakeholders in the transit sector to rebound and potentially exceed pre-COVID operational levels of service through a growth in public transit overall – some of which is being leveraged to advance decarbonization goals that had been stalled or stymied from 2020 to 2022 by COVID19-era supply chain issues. Initially, these stakeholders may have adopted a gradual and phased approach to recovery. However, with the support of government funding and policy supports locally, as well as economic resurgence and resource availability, there has been a 22

marked movement towards embracing ZEBs at the transit agency level over the past year. One factor at play in this surge is the federal funding program, Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program (ICIP), which fosters the development of clean, modern and inclusive infrastructure. The ICIP requires approval and nomination by provincial governments, followed by approval by Infrastructure Canada, prior to funds being deployed. This process slowed down the use of these funds in the 2020 to 2022 period for transit agencies. As ICIP was released nationwide, pronouncements ensued in jurisdictions leveraging those funds this year to procure ZEBs. The 2021 Zero Emissions Transit Fund (ZETF) marked a paradigm shift in the transition to zero emissions. The program expedited the process which requires approval from Infrastructure Canada and Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB). The ZETF significantly accelerated the adoption of ZEBs by implementing both planning (feasibility) and procurement (capital) funding. It is designed to ensure that transit agencies and school bus operators have developed a comprehensive plan for electrification and are adequately prepared before making large capital requests of government to fund large capital procurements and/or facility redesigns and rebuilds. Since its inception, the ZETF program has evolved. Data from 2023 indicates a maturation of the program and its policies, and the increased involvement of transit agencies in transitioning to ZEBs. During CUTRIC’s 5th Annual Zero Emission Transit & Mobility Conference held in October 2023, Infrastructure Canada announced that through the ZETF and CIB’s Zero Emission Bus Initiative, Infrastructure Canada is currently supporting the acquisition of over 6,500 ZEBs. Infrastructure Canada also highlighted some challenges of the program, including that the ZEB industry and market conditions are dynamic, impacting project delivery. Therefore, it is even more important to have stable and predictable funding to manage risks and deliver results. In light of the ZETF program, CUTRIC’s most recent ZEB survey data reveals a marked and exponential increase in the number of BEBs, with a growth rate of 355 per cent since 2022. Over the same time, FCEBs had a growth rate of 123 per cent. This is illustrated in Figure 5.

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Fuel Cell Electric Bus 2021

2022

2023

Figure 5: Total ZEBs by year

Based on the data, Canada is on course to achieve its target of introducing 5,000 ZEBs by 2026. However, CUTRIC’s analysis of the ZEB landscape reveals a significant discrepancy between the pronounced and the actual number of in-service ZEBs. Figure 6 shows that many ZEBs are in the early stages of pronouncment and feasibility, representing a commitment to adopt and study ZEBs. However, this does not guarantee their deployment into service. For example, transit agencies may announce their intention to adopt ZEBs, but reduce their initial number. They may delay or cancel their plans after conducting feasibility studies that reveal overwhelming technical, financial and human resources risks. In addition, the number of buses announced by transit agencies may not correspond to the number of buses actually procured due to delays and inflation. Because of delays, the budget allocated by a transit agency for ZEBs may not be sufficient to purchase those buses when the funds are finally available.

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2 Feasibility

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Figure 6: ZEBs according to stages of transitioning

The later phases of funding, procurement, commissioning and active service present a more precise overview of ZEBs currently in operation or soon to be deployed. At these stages, official contracts and agreements have often been signed by procuring bodies, such as cities. The 2023 ZEB survey data show that a total of 2,144 ZEBs exist in the “funding” to “in-service” stages. This figure is likely a much better predictor of ZEBs-on-roads over the next two years, compared to the 5,426 ZEB figure across all stages. Figure 7 illustrates how ZEBs in the last four stages of transitioning – funding, procurement, commissioning and in-service – are distributed according to the most recent ZEB survey.

231 23

595 1295

Funding

Procurement

Commissioning

In-Service

Figure 7: Total number of ZEBs in funding, procurement, commissioning and in-service

7.1.

Current status of BEBs

BEBs are a type of electric vehicle that depends on battery power to propel the bus and operate auxiliary systems such as lighting, heating and air conditioning. BEBs remain the most common and viable zero emissions technology among Canadian transit agencies due to their lower total cost of ownership (TCO) over the life cycle of the vehicle, as well as their quieter vehicle operation, perceived superior reliability and expected technological improvements in battery technology [27]. BEBs are expected to be more cost-effective and require less maintenance than diesel-powered buses, depending on the power grid from which they source their power [9]. However, BEBs may still contribute to GHGs, depending on the source of electricity used. To minimize the carbon footprint of BEBs, it is recommended to use green energy sources such as hydro, wind or solar, all of which have lowcarbon intensity. While BEBs are the most common type of ZEB technology in Canada, their adoption is not evenly distributed across the nine provinces. This is demonstrated 26

in Figure 8 below. According to the data collected, Ontario has the highest number of BEBs with a total of 2,877, followed by Quebec with 1,400, Alberta with 519, and British Columbia with 300. The remaining provinces of Manitoba, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island have less than 100 BEBs each. Data also indicate that Newfoundland, Northwest Territories, Nunavut and Yukon are yet to initiate any zero emissions transition plans in relation to BEBs or transit decarbonization strategies. 3500

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2000 1400

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519 300 72

0 AB

0 ON

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Figure 8: BEBs across all stages of transitioning by province

The higher uptake of BEBs in Ontario and Quebec can be attributed to the following factors. First, these provinces have a higher population density and more urban areas with higher ridership rates overall. Coupled with the perceived and predicted lower operational and maintenance costs of BEBs over diesel buses, this may make it easier to justify the cost of electric buses to city councils or transit commissions in transit-intense communities in Ontario and Quebec on a per capita basis. Second, these provinces have a higher concentration of public transit systems overall, which means they are more likely to be able to afford the initial 27

investment in electric buses. For example, Quebec and Ontario rank first and second in transit ridership in Canada, respectively [10]. Third, government and municipal support have encouraged the adoption of BEBs in these provinces. For example, in Quebec, the federal and provincial government has recently announced a total of C$2.1 billion deal to purchase 1,229 electric buses for the province [11]. The Quebec government will contribute C$1.1 billion, while the Government of Canada will contribute C$780 million. The remaining balance of C$234 million will be contributed by 10 transit companies that are part of the project. This is North America's largest electric bus acquisition project and is expected to reduce GHGs by 930,000 tonnes [11]. Across the six stages of the adoption of BEBs, survey data indicates most BEBs are still in the “pronouncement” stage, accounting for 2,796 (53 per cent) of all BEBs nationwide. Another 1,285 (24 per cent) are in the “funding” stage, while 566 (11 per cent) are in the “procurement” stage. Only 231 (four per cent) of BEBs are currently “in-service” across Canada. These data are shown in Figure 9. Evidently, there are fewer BEBs “in-service” compared to in “pronouncement.” The stages after funding – procurement, commissioning and in-service – can be time-consuming for transit agencies and allied stakeholders. This is because they must navigate various hurdles that may arise, such as facilities upgrades, workforce considerations, real estate considerations and funding gaps, and overcoming these hurdles may take several years longer than expected at the outset of a decarbonization strategy. Additional challenges, such as increased bus pricing, utility restriction, and on-route charger ownership and maintenance can alter the number of buses and allied infrastructure being procured when compared to the intentions or expectations of a transit agency at the original pronouncement stage.

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Figure 9: BEBs across Canada by stages

The ZEB survey also asks transit agencies for information about the manufacturers from which they are purchasing their BEBs and allied infrastructure. However, approximately 18 per cent of transit agency respondents did not provide that data, nor was it available on their web sites or through press releases. This may be because “funding” stages or “procurement” stages include public tenders that are legally protected for fairness until public announcements are made about winning bids by the procuring body. In other cases, responding agencies indicated they were still considering options in the marketplace, and had not yet decided whether to arrange procurements with preferred vendors or whether to own or lease their vehicles, given different options and related costs in the marketplace today. As a result, out of 4,663 buses, CUTRIC has collected BEB manufacturer data for 3,862 of them , representing 82 per cent of the vehicles reported in the survey. The data are shown in Figure 10.

Proterra 3%

Vicinity 0%

BYD 1%

New Flyer 34%

Nova Bus 62%

Figure 10: BEBs by vehicle manufacturer

According to the ZEB survey, Nova Bus is currently leading Canada's BEB supply with a market share of 62 per cent, as reported by transit agencies. New Flyer follows with a market share of 34 per cent. Reasons why transit agencies may prefer one manufacturer over another include cost, proposed average vehicle range, charging options, perceived or actual reliability, and local support for maintenance. ZEB survey data also shows that 40ft buses constitute 97 per cent of BEBs in the Canadian ZEB landscape, totalling 4,197 buses. This is followed by 60ft buses (110 buses) and 28ft (24) buses . These results are shown in Figure 11.

60 ft 2%

30 ft 28 0% ft…

35 ft 0%

40 ft 97%

Figure 11: BEBs by length

7.2.

Charging infrastructure for BEBs

According to ZEB survey data, transit agencies often lack data on charging infrastructure, either because they have not finalized their charging strategy or because they have incomplete information on the specifications of the chargers they plan to purchase. This includes the type (i.e., pantograph or plug-in), location (i.e., in-depot or on-route), charging rate (i.e., 150 kW or 450 kW) and manufacturer of the chargers. This gap in knowledge and charger data poses a challenge for data analysis and visualization, as it prevents a comprehensive overview of the chargers in the ZEB landscape. Moreover, this data is not readily available in the public domain, as most transit agencies only disclose general information, such as the number of chargers they have purchased or are soon to purchase. However, in the 2023 ZEB survey, CUTRIC obtained data from 18 transit agencies on their BEB charging infrastructure. According to those data, there are currently 574 charging stations in various stages of transition, from pronouncement to deployment. Figure 12 shows the distribution of these chargers.

In-Service, 86

Pronouncement, 3

Feasibility, 0

Commissioning, 61

Procurement, 20

Funding, 404

Figure 12: BEB charging infrastructure

The data also reveal the distribution of BEB chargers by charging rates. Out of the 574 charging stations in the data set, a majority (558) are 150-kW chargers, followed by ten 60-kW chargers and six 450-kW chargers (Figure 13). The data also indicate that ABB, Siemens, Proterra and ChargePoint are the leading charging infrastructure suppliers in Canada.

558 60 kW

150 kW

450kW

Figure 13: Distribution of chargers according to charging rates

7.3.

Challenges of BEBs

The adoption of BEBs pose several challenges for transit agencies. CUTRIC’s 2021 and 2022 ZEB surveys identified several key challenges associated with BEBs, as follows: High capital costs: A BEB with a battery capacity of 400 kWh can cost between C$1 million and C$1.2 million (circa 2021-2022), approximately double the price of a diesel-powered vehicle [12]. Currently, batteries represent a significant portion of BEB costs. More affordable batteries are needed to make BEBs competitive with diesel buses. Additional infrastructure costs: The chargers required to electrify a given fleet can add substantial capital costs. Regarding basic capital costs, a typical highpowered opportunity charging system with up to 450 kW of delivery capacity costs approximately C$1 million (2021–2022 price). In comparison, lowerpowered depot chargers cost anywhere between C$50,000 and C$500,000 per system, depending upon the sophistication of the units, the volume of units procured at one time and the installation process's complexity [13].

Scheduling and energy costs: The duration of charging and the total draw of power from the grid, along with associated electricity costs and demand chargers, pose challenges when large numbers of BEBs are engaged in lowpower in-depot charging. Depending on garage operations and capacity, fewer, but more powerful chargers may be viable alternatives if distributed on-route and leveraged throughout the day to accommodate scheduling constraints. However, these solutions rarely result in cheaper energy prices [13]. Real estate: Chargers on-route present real estate challenges and incur installation costs. When on-route charging systems are adopted, there is a need for roadside land acquisition and space allowances to install the chargers. These challenges continue to pose barriers to the adoption of BEBs in 2023. In addition to these challenges, transit agencies also reported the following barriers in the 2023 ZEB survey. Availability and range of equipment: Transit agencies cite supply chain shortages as barriers to deploying BEBs, for both vehicles and charging infrastructure. Some transit agencies also cite the limited range of available buses on the market as a challenge in their plans to electrify their fleets. Capacity restraints at transit facilities: Transit agencies have reported that some of their transit facilities were constructed years or decades ago, and that upgrading those facilities to incorporate the design and requirements for BEBs would be challenging, costly and complex. For some agencies, constructing a new transit facility is the only viable option. However, new facilities can require years to obtain funding and approvals.

7.4.

Current status of FCEBs

In this section, CUTRIC highlights current electrification plans among transit agencies undertaking FCEB technology. Adopting hydrogen FCEBs is a promising option for many transit agencies. FCEBs consume hydrogen on-board and emit clean water vapour from their tailpipes as the only form of emissions. The fuelcell module generates electricity by consuming hydrogen, which is used to charge on-board batteries that power an electric motor. CUTRIC’s 2023 ZEB survey identifies several noteworthy developments for FCEBs. As previously cited, FCEBs constitute 2 per cent of the current ZEBs being adopted across Canada. Data collected by CUTRIC indicate FCEBs are being 34

adopted in three of the 13 provinces and territories. Manitoba has proposed 29 FCEBs, Ontario has proposed 14 FCEBs, and Alberta has proposed three FCEBs (Figure 14). In the case of Edmonton, the procurement constitutes a pilot study launched in October 2023, which will assess the buses in real-world conditions [14].

60 50

50 40 29

30 20

10 3 0 AB

0 BC

0 NS

Figure 14: FCEBs by province and territory

Based on ZEB survey data, most FCEBs – 50 in total – are still in the “feasibility” stage. There are currently no FCEBs “in-service” (Figure 15) except for Edmonton Transit which is currently conducting a pilot study. However, CUTRIC does not include pilot studies in its reporting as these are temporary deployments. Similar to BEBs, 40ft buses are the most common type of FCEBs in procurement, while 60ft and 30ft buses are also undergoing feasibility assessments (Figure 16). New Flyer is currently the only supplier of FCEBs reported by transit agencies in Canada.

50 40

30 20 10

10 4

0 1 Pronouncement

2 Feasibility

3 Funding

4 Procurement

5 Commissioning

Figure 15: FCEBs by stages

60 ft 9%

28 ft 0%

30 ft 9%

35 ft 0%

40 ft 82%

Figure 16: FCEBs by length

6 In-Service

7.5.

Fueling infrastructure

Data on hydrogen fueling infrastructure is challenging to obtain from transit agencies and the public domain. This is because FCEB adoption is in the early stages compared to BEB adoption in Canada. Furthermore, to meet the standards of clean or zero emissions, hydrogen must be generated either by steam methane reform (SMR) with carbon capture, also known as “blue” hydrogen, or by electrolysis using renewable sources such as nuclear, hydro, wind or solar, also known as “green” hydrogen. Based on the data obtained from two transit agencies adopting hydrogen technology, Winnipeg Transit and Mississauga Transit are both currently setting up their hydrogen supply systems. Winnipeg Transit will be producing its hydrogen on-site by electrolysis, while Mississauga Transit will rely on hydrogen delivery from a third-party supplier, who will use electrolysis to produce hydrogen from renewable sources. CUTRIC will continue to collect data from other transit agencies using hydrogen technology.

7.6.

Challenges of FCEBs

FCEBs offer conventional full-vehicle performance regarding highway speed, gradability, fueling times and range for all transit routes. These benefits make it a technology worth considering for zero emissions transitioning. However, like any other emerging technology, FCEBs have their own unique challenges. These challenges have been identified across all three ZEB DatabaseTM reports. Cost profile: FCEBs are more expensive than BEBs, costing from C$1.2 million to C$1.7 million each [15]. Operations and maintenance: Operations and maintenance costs for FCEBs can be more challenging than BEBs because of the extra components the vehicles require, such as a fuel cell, fuel tank and related fuel supplies [16]. Lack of best practices: Currently, there are no Canadian best practices or transit guidance documents for transit agencies who want to adopt this innovative technology. Lack of manufacturers for specialized FCEB buses in the market: Several small to medium transit agencies use specialty transit or ~25ft vans for public transportation. The Canadian market only offers BEB and FCEB options in the 40ft and 60ft ranges. For smaller vehicles, the market depends on either a handful of manufacturers (Letenda, BYD, EV Star) or custom-made powertrain 37

solution providers (Lightning eMotors). There are no FCEB options in the size range of 30ft or less, which makes it challenging to adapt. In addition to these challenges, data collected in the 2023 ZEB survey highlighted the following barriers transit agencies are facing in adopting FCEBs. Lead times for vehicle and electrical equipment: The limited number of FCEB manufacturers causes production and delivery delays for buses and related infrastructure. Inflation: The transition process may take longer than expected, which may affect the purchasing power of the transit agencies. Due to inflation, the budgets they have secured may not be sufficient to acquire the planned number of buses. Funding uncertainty beyond 2026: Transit agencies are concerned about funding availability after 2026. They urge the government to finalize the permanent transit infrastructure fund details regarding bus procurement. Underdeveloped domestic hydrogen supply chain and the high cost of delivered hydrogen: Some transit agencies face challenges in obtaining hydrogen at a reasonable price in their province due to the lack of well-established hydrogen supply chains.

8. Trends in transit electrification This section analyzes current trends in transit electrification based on quantitative data obtained from the ZEB survey. According to current estimates, 5,426 ZEBs are currently at various stages of adoption in Canada. However, this estimate is 17 per cent lower than the 6,500 ZEBs announced by CIB at CUTRIC’s October 2023 conference. The discrepancy may be due to under-reported and incomplete data submitted by transit agencies to the ZEB survey, as such, CUTRIC did not incorporate this into its report. Regardless, based on both CUTRIC’s empirical survey data and the Government of Canada’s funding data, the Canadian government is on track to meet its goal of introducing 5,000 ZEBs by 2026, resulting in about 6,000 ZEBs in some stage of adoption through to deployment by 2026.

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Figure 17: ZEB linear future trend 2018–2026

The federal government has set a goal of introducing 5,000 ZEBs by 2026 as part of its efforts to reduce GHGs and support the transition to a low-carbon economy. To evaluate the progress and feasibility of this goal, different methods of prediction have been applied to estimate the future number of ZEBs in Canada. One method is 39

a linear model, which assumes a constant rate of change in the number of ZEBs over time. According to this method, Canada will have up to 6,000 ZEBs in various stages of adoption by 2026, based on the current trajectory of ZEB adoption. Another method is an exponential model, which assumes an increasing rate of change in the number of ZEBs over time. According to this method, Canada will have up to 9,500 ZEBs at various stages of transition by 2026, indicating an optimistic outlook for ZEBs in Canada. Figure 17 and 18 illustrates the linear and exponential models of ZEB prediction, respectively. 100000 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

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Figure 18: ZEBs future exponential trend 2018–2026

These projections are based on significant developments in the Canadian ZEB sector in Canada. The Canadian government has taken significant steps to support the transition to ZEBs nationwide. The ZETF, announced in August 2021, includes C$2.75 billion in funding over five years to support public transit and school bus operator electrification plans, facilitate the purchase of ZEBs, and build supporting infrastructure, such as charging infrastructure and facility upgrades. This program has been supported by large joint procurement projects such as the Association du transport urbain du Québec (ATUQ) procurement of 1,229 electric transit buses [18]. Similar projects such as Metrolinx’s Transit Procurement Initiative, which aims to 40

purchase 40 new 40ft-metre electric buses, are being carried out across Canada, making it easier to purchase ZEBs at a lower cost [19]. The Canadian Urban Transit Zero Emission Bus (CUTZEB™) Joint Procurement Initiative, a independent non-profit corporation that specializes in comprehensive and cost-effective joint procurement processes for small to medium-sized transit agencies, is also in its first round of joint procurement for 14 BEBs, along with indepot and on-route chargers and supporting infrastructure as part of a turn-key solution for transit agencies [25]. The availability of the ZETF and supporting programs has led to a significant increase in the number of transit agencies participating in zero-emissions decarbonization efforts [26]. The linear and exponential trend analyses shown above suggest that the adoption of ZEBs is on track to meet the Government of Canada’s target of introducing 5,000 ZEBs by 2026. However, this projection is based on the number of ZEBs ordered or planned, not the number of ZEBs that have completed the transition stages and are in service. To estimate the actual number of ZEBs in service, CUTRIC analyzes data from 2018 to date, and applied linear and exponential trend analyses to forecast the number of buses that will be in service by 2026. Figures 24 and 25 show projections of the number of ZEBs in service by 2026.

450 400 350

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Figure 19: Linear trend analysis of in-service BEBs from 2018–2026

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Figure 20: Exponential trend analysis of BEBs “in-service” from 2018-2026

The linear trend analysis predicts that Canada will have about 400 BEBs in service by 2026, while the exponential trend analysis projects 2,800 BEBs in service by 2026, with 5,000 BEBs in service by 2027. These estimates do not account for buses that are at other stages of the transition process. Several factors, such as funding availability and accessibility, supply-chain dynamics and technological maturity can accelerate or hinder the actual deployment of BEBs. These predictions do not include other zero-emission technologies, such as FCEBs and R-CNG buses, which may also contribute to the electrification of transit fleets. While there are currently no FCEBs in service, there is growing interest in FCEBs by transit agencies. In addition to FCEBs that are currently in the earlier stages of transitioning, some transit agencies are conducting pilot studies to assess the viability of FCEBs. For instance, since 2020, CUTRIC has been collaborating with the City of Mississauga in a feasibility study of FCEBs for MiWay, the public transit agency for Mississauga, as part of a phased transition to full electrification [28]. The City of Edmonton has also been piloting two FCEBs since October 2023 [23].

R-CNG buses could significantly increase the number of zero-emission buses in service, especially in Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario, where CNG buses are already operating. CUTRIC aims to collect data on the number of CNG buses fueled by renewable natural gas (R-CNG) and incorporate them into future reports.

The data above shows how the Canadian ZEB Database™ provides CUTRIC and transit stakeholders with information they can use to make decisions about zero emissions fleet transitions and decarbonization strategies. CUTRIC’s Canadian ZEB Database™ also supports the Canadian government’s objective of deploying 5,000 ZEBs by the end of 2026 by offering a high-level projection of the Canadian ZEB landscape.

9. CNG to RNG (R-CNGs) buses CNG buses that use renewable natural gas (RNG) in their fuel supply chain, also known as R-CNG buses, have gained global importance due to the urgent need to significantly reduce GHGs, while maintaining operational costs comparable to diesel and CNG. In some cases, R-CNG buses can be more cost-effective and cleaner to operate than BEBs or FCEBs [17]. According to CUTRIC’s 2022 report, Renewable natural gas as a complementary solution to decarbonizing transit, a newly manufactured CNG bus fuelled by RNG has similar capital costs as a regular diesel bus and does not require additional or new infrastructure, making it financially attractive for transit agencies struggling with decarbonization [17]. RNG can be directly injected into CNG pipelines, leveraging the already installed refueling infrastructure. Furthermore, introducing R-CNG into a fleet does not require significant technological or operational changes, as CNG buses are an established technology. R-CNG buses in Canada, currently do not qualify for funding under the federal ZETF [26]. For RNG to be climate friendly, it must be produced from waste methane that would otherwise have been released into the atmosphere [17]. Renewably fuelled RCNG buses must use refined or upgraded biogas generated anaerobically, instead of from traditional fossil fuels.

For this version of the Canadian ZEB Database™ report, CUTRIC has excluded CNG and R-CNG buses from the analysis due to the lack of comprehensive data indicating transit agency CNG supply, whether it is an RNG source, and if so, at what per cent. However, CUTRIC believes that, with sufficient support and resources, transit agencies may be able to leverage CNG vehicles to rapidly decarbonize with minimal infrastructure requirements. This is especially true for jurisdictions where installation of charging equipment or sourcing of hydrogen fuel may be a long, drawn-out or infrastructurally challenging process over the next 10-year period. CUTRIC will continue to monitor developments related to R-CNG buses, with the aim of identifying fueling sources and percentages of renewable gas. At present, three Canadian provinces operate CNG buses. British Columbia has 464 CNG buses, Ontario has 343 and Alberta has 151.

10. Canadian ZEB Database™ challenges Despite the robust methodology used by CUTRIC to develop, deploy and consolidate the Canadian ZEB Database™, challenges exist with such a comprehensive reporting tool. This section discusses some of these challenges and the measures taken to mitigate them. Data collection: CUTRIC relies on transit agencies to voluntarily provide data for the Canadian ZEB DatabaseTM through its ZEB survey. To solicit responses from transit agencies, CUTRIC employs follow-up emails, telephone calls, and CUTRIC outreach and promotion activities through its national ZEB Committee. However, there is no assurance that relevant transit agencies will respond. When the ZEB survey response rate is low, CUTRIC resorts to secondary data from transit, municipal and ZEB manufacturer web sites, as well as media and press releases. In addition, transit agencies may not always be willing to provide the data, and it may not be available in the public domain, resulting in information gaps. This is especially the case when some of Canada’s largest transit agencies do not participate in the ZEB survey, such as the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC), TransLink and Société de transport de Montréal (STM). Data from these agencies is material to the accuracy of

the Canadian ZEB Database™ and is needed to provide a comprehensive overview of Canada’s ZEB landscape. Through multiple methods, CUTRIC is committed to obtaining 100 per cent of its data from all transit agencies of relevance to the ZEB landscape going forward, and continues to appeal to all agencies to participate in the Canadian ZEB Database™ survey in future iterations. Missing/incomplete data: CUTRIC has observed that, while some transit agencies have responded to the ZEB survey, the data provided could not be incorporated into the analysis due to a lack of crucial quantitative data. In most cases, such transit agencies are in the early stages of electrification and have yet to determine the type, number and manufacturer of ZEBs they plan to adopt. In some instances, this may be caused by a transit respondent not having access to the relevant in-house data, resulting in incomplete submissions. To address this issue, CUTRIC follows up on incomplete submissions with email and telephone communications to obtain missing information. Transit agency representatives: In some cases, CUTRIC may identify and connect with a transit member who is familiar with the zero-emissions transitioning plans of a transit agency and is willing to participate in the ZEB survey. However, due to the mobility of people in the transit sector, a pre-identified contact may no longer work at the transit agency when CUTRIC is ready to deploy the next survey iteration. This results in CUTRIC having to find another knowledgeable member about the electrification plans of the transit agency who is willing to participate in the survey. As a result, information gaps may arise. Lack of a comprehensive list of transit agencies and total number of buses: CUTRIC has developed a comprehensive methodology to build the Canadian ZEB Database™. However, there are gaps in determining the country's exact number of transit agencies and buses, which is required to calculate the total fleet transition nationwide. To address this, CUTRIC is collecting data and validating data sets with municipalities to build a baseline national reference guide showing the exact number of transit agencies and buses in operation across Canada.

11. Next steps CUTRIC is dedicated to improving the comprehensiveness of the Canadian ZEB Database™. The next iteration of the ZEB survey will launch in January 2024. It will include additional variables of consideration such as funding sources, hydrogen fueling infrastructure, bus rapid transit (BRT) and on-demand transit (ODT). The next report is scheduled to be released in Q1 of 2024. CUTRIC is also strengthening its strategies to ensure 100 per cent participation from transit agencies. A comprehensive list of transit agencies is being developed, and relationships are being established with CUTRIC transit members to obtain as much relevant data as possible. In addition, the ZEB survey is undergoing a continuous thorough revision to enhance its structure, wording and logic.

12. Conclusion This is the third version of the Canadian ZEB DatabaseTM report, highlighting changes in the ZEB landscape from October 2022 to October 2023. It illustrates the number, types, stages, provinces of location and manufacturers of ZEBs deployed across Canada, and provides information about the issues and challenges facing transit agencies in their decarbonization plans. Data from the Canadian ZEB Database™ is used in this report to predict that the Government of Canada is on track to achieve its goal of introducing 5,000 ZEBs by 2026. This report also shows that the number of BEBs in various stages of electrification have significantly increased over the past year. Collaboration between government authorities, transit agencies, manufacturers, consultants and other stakeholders have contributed to this growth, along with developments in BEB technology and related infrastructure. The data also indicate that the distribution of ZEBs is unevenly spread across Canada, with Ontario and Quebec leading the transition process. The data demonstrate there is little zero-emissions transition among transit fleets in other provinces. This finding may enable government authorities to design incentive and funding programs to spur those agencies and provinces to become more engaged in the process. The data also outlines the manufacturers that are leading the supply of ZEBs in Canada, based on different technologies. CUTRIC continues to complete a series of validation efforts internally to ensure the accuracy of information represented and shared within these reports. Where inaccuracies occur, efforts are instituted to rectify the information expeditiously.

13. References 1.

Government of Canada, “Zero Emission Transit Fund Applicant Guide,” 2021.

Infrastructure Canada, “Government of Canada investing to electrify transit systems across the country,” March 4, 2021. Available from: https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/government-of-canadainvesting-to-electrify-transit-systems-across-the-country895599052.html.

E. Jaratt. “Federal government announces $1.5-billion for zero-emission buses and charging infrastructure,” October 1, 2020. Available from: https://electricautonomy.ca/2020/10/01/federal-investment-zev-buscharging/.

T. Choudhury, J. Hanson, P. Pillai, J. Petrunić, “Canadian ZEB Database™: Canada's zero-emission bus landscape and electrification readiness,” CUTRIC Knowledge Series, Vol. 3, No.2, 2022.

Infrastructure Canada, “Government of Canada advances supports for zero emission bus transportation,” 2022.

Government of Canada, “Advancing Zero Emission Bus Electrification Planning: Applicant Guide.” Accessed October 29, 2023. Available from: https://www.infrastructure.gc.ca/zero-emissions-trans-zeroemissions/zeb-elec-plan-guide-aze-eng.html.

CUTRIC, “Canadian ZEB Database™: Canada’s zero-emission bus landscape and electrification readiness report,” in Knowledge Series, 2022.

U.S. Department of Transportation, “Benefits and Implementation Challenges of Transit Electrification.” Accessed October 29, 2023. Available from:

L. Eudy and M. Jeffers, “Foothill Transit Battery Electric Bus Demonstration Results: Second Report,” National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Golden, Colorado, 2017.

10.

Fraser Institute, “Transportation Performance of the Canadian Provinces – Appendix A: Provincial performance summaries,” October 2008.

11.

CBC News, “Quebec to get 1,229 electric buses in $2.1B deal with Nova Bus,” May 8, 2023.

12.

J. Petrunic, E. Abotalebi, and A. Raj, “Best Practices and Key Considerations for Transit Electrification and Charging Infrastructure Deployment to Deliver Predictable, Reliable, and Cost-Effective Fleet Systems,” 2020, CUTRIC. https://cutric-crituc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Best-Practicesand-Key-Considerations-for-Transit-Electrification-and-Charging48

Infrastructure-Deployment-to-Deliver-Predictable_-Reliable_-and-CostEffective-Fleet-Systems.pdf 13.

C. Johnson, L. Eudy, M. Jeffers, “Financial Analysis of Battery Electric Transit Buses,” 2020.

14.

City of Edmonton, “Hydrogen and Electric Buses,” 2023; Available from: https://www.edmonton.ca/projects_plans/transit/electric-buses.

15.

CUTRIC, “Pan-Canadian Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Demonstration & Integration Trial,” 2019.

16.

L. Meredith, and P. Amy, “Zero-Emission Bus Rollout Plan Guidance for Transit Agencies,” pages 1–16, 2020.

17.

CUTRIC, “Renewable Natural Gas as a Complementary Solution to Decarbonizing Transit,” 2022.

18.

M. Wanek-Libman, “Quebec confirms largest North American electric bus project with a C$2.1 billion price tag, more than 1,200 vehicles,” Mass Transit, 2023.

19.

“Metrolinx working with 10 transit agencies to purchase battery-electric buses,” Mass Transit, 2023.

20.

Research and Markets, “Canada Transit Buses (Diesel, Electric, Hybrid, Others) Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report 2023–2030,” 2023.

21.

CUTRIC, “Canadian ZEB Database™: Canada’s zero-emission bus landscape and electrification readiness report,” in Knowledge Series, 1, Editor. 2022: Canada.

22.

“TTC Green Bus Technology Plan Update,” 2018.

23.

City of Edmonton, “Hydrogen and Electric Buses,” 2023. Available from: https://www.edmonton.ca/projects_plans/transit/electric-buses.

24.

25.

Canadian Urban Transit Research & Innovation Consortium. August 21, 2023)]; Available from: https://cutric-crituc.org/.

26.

Government of Canada, “Zero Emission Transition Fund,” 2021.

27.

S. Diamond, J. Bowes, M Ghafouri-Azar, M. Wyndham-West, P. Mahajan, G. Yuan, et al. “Sustainable Development and Electrification of Transit Knowledge Synthesis Report,” OCAD University / Canadian Urban Transit Research & Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC), 2021.

28.

CUTRIC, “CUTRIC playing central role in groundbreaking hydrogen transit study,” 2020. Available from: https://cutric-crituc.org/news/cutric-playingcentral-role-in-groundbreaking-hydrogen-transit-study/.

CUTRIC Canadian ZEB Database Report #3: December 2023

Articles inside

Executive summary