Canadian ZEB Database™ Zero-Emissions Bus Landscape and Transitioning Readiness Report #5

Canadian ZEB Database™: Canada's Zero-Emission Bus Landscape and Transitioning Readiness Knowledge Series Report #5, 2024 October 1st, 2024 Written by: ●

Desmond Jaricha Social Scientist: Low Carbon Smart Mobility

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Jessica Hanson Manager: Project Manager: Zero Emission Bus (ZEB) Initiatives

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Dr. Josipa Petrunić President & CEO

Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC) Consortium de recherche et d’innovation en transport urbain au Canada (CRITUC)

CONFIDENTIALITY AND COPYRIGHT © 2024 This document is for the sole use of the addressee and the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC). The document contains proprietary and confidential information that shall not be reproduced in any manner, or disclosed to or discussed with any other parties without the express written permission of the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium. Information in this document is to be considered the intellectual property of CUTRIC in accordance with Canadian copyright law.

This Report was prepared by the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium. The material in it reflects the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium's best judgment, in the light of the information available to it, at the time of preparation. Any use which a third party makes of this Report, or any reliance on or decisions to be made based on it, are the responsibility of such third parties. The Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium accepts no responsibility for damages, if any, suffered by any third party as a result of decisions made or actions based on this Report.

Expansion of the Canadian ZEB Database™ was made possible through funding and support provided by Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada (HICC).

Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC) Consortium de recherche et d’innovation en transport urbain au Canada (CRITUC) 18 King Street East, Suite 1400Toronto, ON M5C 1C4

info@cutric-crituc.org

Table of contents List of figures

i

List of tables ii List of acronyms iii Acknowledgments iv Executive Summary 1 1.

Introduction and background 3

2.

Objectives 8

3.

ZEB Database™ design and development

4.

ZEB Database Survey™ 11

5.

Definitions and assumptions

6.

9

12

5.1.

ZEBs in Canada 12

5.2.

Stages of transit electrification in Canada

5.3.

Infrastructure 13

5.4.

Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE)

5.5.

Data inclusion criteria 14

5.6.

Additional criteria in the Report

15

5.7.

Criteria not included in the Report

15

12

14

Data analysis 16

Table of contents 7.

Current status of ZEBs in Canada

17

7.1.

Current status of BEBs 21

7.2.

Charging infrastructure for BEBs 27

7.3.

Challenges of BEBs 31

7.4.

Current status of FCEBs 33

7.5.

Fuelling infrastructure 36

7.6.

Challenges of FCEBs 37

7.7.

No electrification plans

7.8.

Funding sources 40

38

8.

Trends in transit electrification

43

9.

Pilot studies 48

10.

CNG to RNG (R-CNGs) buses 50

11.

HandyDART / ParaTransit / Specialized Transit

12.

On-demand Transport (ODT) 53

13.

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) 54

14.

Canadian ZEB Database™ challenges 55

15.

Next steps 57

16.

Conclusion 58

52

References 59

List of figures Figure 1: ZEB Database™ components 9 Figure 2: Stages of transit electrification 12 Figure 3:Total ZEBs as of July 2024 17 Figure 4: Number of ZEBs in all stages of transition by year 18 Figure 5: Total ZEBs by stages of transition and year 19 Figure 6: ZEBs according to stages of transitioning 20 Figure 7: Total ZEBs by propulsion type and year 21 Figure 8: BEBs across all stages of transitioning by provinces/territories 22 Figure 9: BEBs across all stages of transitioning by province 2023-2024 23 Figure 10: BEBs across Canada by stages of transition 24 Figure 11: BEBs across Canada by stages of transition (2023-2024) 25 Figure 12: BEBs by vehicle manufacturer 26 Figure 13: BEBs by bus length (2024) 27 Figure 14: BEB charging infrastructure (2024) 28 Figure 15: BEB charging infrastructure suppliers (2024) 28 Figure 16: BEB chargers by supplier (2023-2024) 29 Figure 17: Distribution of chargers according to charging rates 20 Figure 18: Chargers by charging rate 2023-2024 20 Figure 19: FCEBs by province and territory 33 Figure 20: FCEBs by provinces and territories (2023-2024) 34 Figure 21: FCEBs by stage of transition 38 Figure 22: FCEBs by bus length (2024) 35 Figure 23: Transit agencies with no electrification plans by province 36 Figure 24: ZEB linear future trend (2018-2026) 45 Figure 25: Linear trend analysis of in-service BEBs (2018-2026) 45 Figure 26: Trend line - ZEBS in procurement, commissioning and in-service 47 Figure 27: Pilot studies according to province 49

I

List of tables Table 1: Source of transit electrification funds

40

Table 2: Zero emissions transitioning funds

41

Table 3: Procurement process utilized by transit agencies

42

II

List of acronyms AV

Autonomous vehicle

BEB

Battery electric bus

CCBF

Canada Community Building Fund

CIB

Canada Infrastructure Bank

CNG

Compressed natural gas

CUTRIC

Canadian Urban Transit Research & Innovation Consortium

CUTZEB

Canadian Urban Transit Zero Emissions Bus Joint Procurement Initiative

EIP

Energy Innovation Program

EVID

Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Demonstration Program

EV

Electric vehicle

EVSE

Electric vehicle supply equipment

FCEB

Fuel cell electric bus

GHG

Greenhouse gas

HFC

Hydrogen fuel cell

ICE

Intercity Express

ICIP

Investigating in Canada Infrastructure Program

NRFP

Negotiated request for proposals

ODT

On-demand Transport

PAGITC

Programme d'aide gouvernementale aux infrastructures de transport collectif

R-CNGs

Renewable compressed natural gas

RNG

Renewable natural gas

STM

Société de transport de Montréal

TCO

Total cost of ownership

TTC

Toronto Transit Commission

YRT

York Region Transit

ZEB

Zero emissions bus

ZEBI

Zero Emissions Bus Initiative

ZETF

Zero Emissions Transit Fund

ZEVIP

Zero Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program III

Acknowledgments CUTRIC would like to thank all the municipalities, transit agencies, crown corporations, private and public operators who participated in the 2024 Canadian ZEB Database Survey™.

IV

Executive summary The Canadian ZEB Database™: Canada's Zero Emissions Bus Landscape and Transitioning Readiness Report #5 is part of CUTRIC's Knowledge Series publication program. It supersedes the corresponding Report #4 published in April 2024.

Report #5 highlights the state of zero emissions bus (ZEB) technology adoption up to July 2024.

It documents the ZEB landscape across Canada from pronouncements to funding, as made by municipal council and other jurisdictions responsible for transit, through to procurement and inservice deployment on roads. This Report uses data from transit agencies, municipalities, crown corporations, private and public operators and the public domain to establish transit agencies' and municipalities' overall readiness and progress toward decarbonizing their fleets. It covers the number, types, stages, provinces and manufacturers of ZEBs deployed across Canada. The Report also highlights transit agencies' issues and challenges in their decarbonization plans.

Section one provides an update on ZEB deployment in Canada from February 2024 to July 2024.

At the time of publication, there are 5,459 ZEBs at various stages of deployment nationwide.

This figure consists of 5,370 battery electric buses (BEBs) and 89 fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs).

Data collected from 43 transit agencies show a growing number of agencies advancing fleet electrification, including those moving from planning to implementation stages. The number of ZEBs in the in-service stage has remained steady since January 2024.

Section two highlights the current status of BEBs. Ontario transit agencies lead in the number of BEBs across all stages of deployment (2,640), followed by transit agencies in Quebec (1,612), Alberta (475) and British Columbia (456). ZEBs are now being reported in Newfoundland which previously did not have transit agencies electrifying their fleets. Specifically, Happy Valley-Goose Bay municipality recently announced plans to purchase one electric bus along with two electric bus chargers.

Since the last reporting period in January 2024, there has been an increase in BEBs reported by participating transit agencies in the “pronouncement,” “funding,” “procurement,” and “commissioning” stages. The number of BEBs reported in the “feasibility” stage has declined.

The number of BEBs reported in the “in-service” stage remains unchanged. Nova Bus remains the leading supplier of BEBs with New Flyer, Vicinity Motor Corp and BYD USA holding smaller market shares in Canada. Most reported BEBs are 40-foot buses in configuration. There are 597 charging stations reported in various stages of deployment. ABB leads the market share in charging infrastructure followed by Siemens, Proterra, ChargePoint and ClipperCreek. Challenges in adopting BEBs include the availability of buses and parts, high capital and infrastructure costs and capacity issues.

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Section three discusses FCEBs. These ZEB types are gaining traction as a zero emissions option and are being reported by transit agencies in Nova Scotia (47), Manitoba (20), Ontario (14) and Alberta (8). Most reported FCEBs are still in the feasibility stage with no buses in regular service.

Challenges for deploying FCEBs include high costs, an underdeveloped hydrogen supply chain and limited manufacturer options.

Section four reports transit agencies without electrification plans. Thirteen transit agencies (primarily in Ontario) report no immediate plans for zero emissions transitions. Agencies in Saskatchewan, Alberta and New Brunswick also fall into this category. Key reasons include infrastructure and operational constraints, costs, geographical location, governance issues and public resistance.

Section five discusses funding sources. Of the 43 surveyed transit agencies, 32 use federal funds, 21 use provincial funds and 27 use municipal funds. One agency uses private funds. The Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program (ICIP) and the Zero Emissions Transit Fund (ZETF) are the most commonly used programs. Additionally, some agencies use city/transit bids and tenders, joint procurement and Negotiated Request for Proposals (NRFP) to purchase ZEBs. Section six explores electrification trends. The data suggest Canada is on track to meet its goal of 5,000 ZEBs by 2026, potentially reaching 7,000 ZEBs by the end of that year. However, a more conservative projection predicts 1,400 ZEBs in service by 2026 representing 28 per cent of the target. To meet the goal transit agencies need to expedite pre-procurement and procurement processes.

Section seven discusses pilot studies. Eight transit agencies are conducting pilot studies with 18 electric buses. Ontario transit agencies lead with three agencies running 10 pilot buses followed by transit agencies in Manitoba (4), Alberta (3) and Saskatchewan (1). These pilot programs range from four weeks to three years.

Section eight highlights the challenges associated with data collection, data analysis and data reporting in the ZEB Database™. Despite a robust methodology, challenges remain such as reliance on voluntary data submissions, incomplete data from some agencies and changes in agency representatives.

Section nine discusses the next steps for enhancing the comprehensiveness of the Canadian ZEB Database™. The next ZEB Database Survey™ will launch in January 2025 and the report is scheduled for release in March 2025. CUTRIC continues to conduct a series of validation efforts internally to ensure the accuracy of information represented and shared within these reports.

Where inaccuracies occur, efforts are made to correct the information promptly.

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1

Introduction and background

The Canadian ZEB Database™ is a national database that monitors the Canadian Zero Emissions Bus (ZEB) landscape and quantifies the transition to full ZEB fleets. This section provides context for the Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium’s (CUTRIC's) initiatives that led to the development of the Canadian ZEB Database™ and their associated reports. It describes CUTRIC’s steps to help transit agencies align with the Government of Canada's vision of helping school boards and municipalities purchase 5,000 zero emissions school and transit buses by 2026.

The Report classifies ZEB technologies as follows: •

Battery electric buses (BEBs) powered by electricity stored in a rechargeable on-board battery pack.

•

Fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) powered by a hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) that converts hydrogen into electricity that is stored in an on-board battery.

•

Renewable compressed natural gas buses (R-CNG) powered by compressed natural gas (CNG) blended with renewable natural gas (RNG), the latter of which is made using refined or upgraded anaerobically generated biogas.

•

Autonomous electric shuttles powered by electricity stored in a rechargeable on-board battery pack; these mobility modes constitute an emerging class of shared mobility for firstkilometre/last-kilometre applications in local transit systems.

The Report also classifies ZEBs based on types of transit services where ZEB technologies can be implemented. These service categories are as follows: •

Bus rapid transit (BRT) is a bus transit system that delivers fast and cost-effective services at metro-level capacities by utilizing dedicated lanes and busways.

•

HandyDART / ParaTransit / Specialized Transit is a door-to-door shared transit service for people with permanent or temporary disabilities that prevents them from using fixed-route transit.

•

On-demand transport (ODT) is transit service that allows passengers to reserve their trip online or through a software application at a suitable time within the service operating hours and to be collected from a predetermined location.

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The Report further classifies ZEB charging infrastructure as follows: •

In-depot and on-route charging infrastructure for BEBs refer to charging stations located at designated depots, terminals or along bus routes where BEBs are parked overnight or during scheduled stops to replenish their batteries.

Canada is committed to reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and fighting climate change.

Zero emissions transit vehicles are a key factor in this effort. The transportation sector is responsible for 28 per cent of Canada's GHG emissions with public transit accounting for one per cent of the transportation emissions [1]. By encouraging transit use over personal vehicle use, ZEB technology can decarbonize the heavy-duty sector from well-to-wheel1 and produce long-term benefits for lowering GHG emissions from the automotive sector.

According to the Government of Canada, ZEBs will reduce pollution, create jobs, stimulate economic growth and foster clean and inclusive communities [2]. Additionally, transit operators may experience lower maintenance and operating costs. To accelerate the adoption of ZEBs and charging infrastructure the Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB) allocated $1.5 billion2 in October 2020 [3]. In February 2021, it unveiled plans to invest $14.9 billion in public transportation projects over eight years. In August 2021, the CIB launched the Zero Emission Transit Fund (ZETF), a $2.75 billion fund (reduced to $2.75 billion in 2024) to support public transit and school bus operators across Canada in acquiring a target of 5,000 ZEBs over five years [4, 5]. The ZETF enables public transit agencies and school boards to electrify their fleets. It also aims to create Canadian jobs in the zero emissions manufacturing sector.

The ZETF program includes a $10 million feasibility and planning fund for municipalities and transit agencies aiming to complete planning activities for their fleet electrification. Infrastructure Canada (now known as the Ministry of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities of Canada) selected CUTRIC as its National Planning Service to deploy funds through technical analyses using CUTRIC’s RoutE. i™ 3.0 suite of standardized non-profit tools . CUTRIC entered a contribution agreement with the Government of Canada to support transit agencies by producing comprehensive and accurate ZEB electrification planning and implementation studies from 2022 to 2026.

CUTRIC also supports transit agencies in their electrification planning efforts through its national Zero Emissions Bus (ZEB) Committee , which serves as a platform for focus groups, information exchange and data-sharing vis-à-vis ZEB experiences by transit agencies, manufacturers and utilities. This Committee also offers transit agencies the opportunity to make recommendations to government agencies with regards to funding decarbonized transit technologies and implementation challenges.

1 2

“Well-to-wheel” is an analogy that means from the original energy source to the vehicle’s tailpipe emissions.

All currency is in Canadian dollars

4

As part of the ZEB Committee program, CUTRIC launched the Canadian ZEB Database™ initiative.

The ZEB Database™ includes a list of Canadian transit agency electrification plans consolidated into a single national database, providing quantitative data detailing the status of vehicle and charger adoption and qualitative data on funding sources that support these procurements. The purpose of the ZEB Database™ is to provide federal, provincial and municipal governments, transit agencies and manufacturers with a better understanding of the successes and challenges transit agencies face in their electrification efforts. It also serves as a monitoring tool to determine whether the Government of Canada is on track to achieve its goal of deploying 5,000 ZEBs by 2026.

In June 2022, CUTRIC published the first Canadian ZEB Database™: Canada's Zero-Emissions Bus Landscape and Electrification Readiness Report as part of its Knowledge Series publication program. The Report shows that, at that time, 1,696 ZEBs had been introduced in Canada at various stages of adoption. Battery electric buses (BEBs) accounted for 55 per cent of ZEBs, while CNG buses and FCEBs accounted for 42 per cent and 3 per cent, respectively. The Report also highlights several challenges and opportunities for advancing ZEB adoption in Canada such as regulatory barriers, infrastructure gaps, consumer awareness, financing availability, innovation potential and international collaboration [6].

In November 2022, CUTRIC published Canada's Zero-Emissions Bus Landscape and Electrification Readiness Report #2 which shows growth in the sector. The Report shows that from May to September 2022 a total of 1,922 ZEBs had been introduced in Canada over that time period.

BEBs constituted 61.2 per cent of these ZEBs, while CNG and FCEB buses constituted 36.8 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively. The Report also identifies the key challenges and opportunities allied to ZEB adoption such as cost, range and maintenance of ZEBs, interoperability of charging infrastructure and issues related to ZEB policies and regulations [7].

In December 2023, CUTRIC published ZEB Database™: Canada's Zero-Emissions Bus Landscape and Transition Readiness Report #3 , which highlights the progress made by Canada in transitioning to ZEBs from September 2022 to October 2023. The Report shows that 5,426 ZEBs had been introduced in Canada at different stages of transition over that time period. Of this total, BEBs constitute 98 per cent while FCEBs constitute two per cent. Report #3 excludes CNG and R-CNG buses due to insufficient data on renewable CNG supply sources used by transit agencies.

Report #3 also highlights challenges and lessons learned in ZEB deployment such as capacity restraints at transit facilities, vehicle and electrical equipment manufacturing lead times, price inflation and funding uncertainty for purchasing ZEBs and allied infrastructure beyond 2026 [8].

In March 2024, CUTRIC published ZEB Database™: Canada's Zero-Emissions Bus Landscape and Transition Readiness Report #4 which provides an overview of ZEB deployment in Canada from October 2023 to January 2024. The Report shows 4,945 ZEBs had been introduced in Canada

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at different stages of transition. This number represents a decrease from Report #3 data, which can be attributed to shifts in transit planning such as the impacts of national economic inflation, limited funding availability and extended vehicle and infrastructure lead times. The decline in numbers is not observed equally across each stage of transition. Data indicate the majority of the decrease is observed in the early stages of transitioning (from pronouncement to funding), while the number of ZEBs in the later stages (procurement to in- service) increased. The Report also shows ZEB deployment varies by province with transit agencies in some provinces (e.g., Alberta, Ontario and New Brunswick) experiencing a decline while agencies in others (e.g., Quebec, British Columbia and Manitoba) experiencing growth [9].

In October 2024, CUTRIC released ZEB Database™: Canada's Zero-Emissions Bus Landscape and Transition Readiness Report #5. This Report provides an overview of ZEB deployment in Canada from February 2024 to July 2024. The Report reflects 5,459 ZEBs in various stages of transition from pronouncement to in-service deployment across the country today. The increase from Report #4 data reflects the growing number of transit agencies advancing fleet electrification. It also indicates that several agencies reported in previous editions of the ZEB Database™ have now moved beyond initial pre-planning stages – such as feasibility studies and consultations – to established decarbonization and ZEB transition plans. The increase in ZEB numbers nationwide is observed across each stage of transition except for the in-service stage which has remained constant since January 2024.

Report #5 shows ZEB deployment varies by province with transit agencies in some provinces (e.g., Alberta, British Columbia, Ontario and Saskatchewan) experiencing growth, while transit agencies in others (e.g., Manitoba, Prince Edward Islands, Nova scotia Quebec) have remained stagnant since January 2024.

The Report shows 597 chargers are being deployed in Canada today across different provinces and across different stages of transition with pantograph chargers being the most adopted type of charger and 150kW being the most common power rating among reported chargers.

This Report discusses ongoing pilot studies for ZEBs conducted by transit agencies and the funding sources utilized for ZEB electrification at the federal, provincial and municipal levels.

It also identifies the challenges and lessons learned in ZEB deployments initiated in Canada in recent years, including unexpectedly short ranges, challenging gaps in technical expertise within transit agencies, lengthy vehicle and infrastructure manufacturing lead times, increasing price inflation and funding uncertainty beyond 2026.The Canadian ZEB Database™ is important to

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Canada’s public transit and public policy sectors for the following reasons: •

Monitoring the landscape: The ZEB Database™ is a national database that monitors the Canadian ZEB landscape. It provides an overview of the electrification and decarbonization status of transit agencies, municipalities and provinces nationwide [5].

•

Planning and transition support: Transitioning to ZEBs requires careful planning and understanding of operational and technical differences between the different propulsion technologies [6]. The ZEB Database™ provides ZEB transition studies and comparative value analyses to public transit agencies [6].

•

Promoting sustainable technologies: The ZEB Database™ supports transit agencies in transitioning to sustainable technologies, such as ZEBs, by providing them with information and analysis on the status and adoption of ZEBs in their regions [5]. This is a crucial step in meeting Canada's 2050 target for reducing pollution [5].

•

Fostering economic growth and job creation: The ZEB Database™ provides a comprehensive overview of zero emissions technologies across various stages of development, from emerging to mature. The Database™ enables the identification of current and future investment opportunities that can foster economic growth in the low-carbon economy and generate new employment opportunities in the manufacturing, installation, maintenance and operation of ZEBs and allied infrastructure [2].

•

Supporting climate change mitigation: The ZEB Database™ supports the fight against climate change by helping document the total number of GHG-reducing ZEBs on the roads [5].

•

Highlighting supply chain and procurement trends: The ZEB Database™ highlights issues arising in supply chain and procurement patterns

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2

Objectives

The Canadian ZEB Database™: Canada's Zero Emissions Bus Landscape and Transitioning Readiness Report #5 is part of CUTRIC's Knowledge Series publication program. It supersedes the corresponding Report #4 published in April 2024. Report #5 offers an update on the standardized national scan, analysis and characterization of the Canadian ZEB landscape.

This Report presents accurate and updated information detailing the current state of ZEBs, allied infrastructure deployments and future trends in Canada as of July 31, 2024. The Report documents progress toward ZEB procurement, adoption and deployment across Canada’s public transit agency industry, and compares that progress to the Government of Canada's national ZEB target.

The objectives of this Report are to provide:

1

A rigorous methodology for developing of an accurate Canadian ZEB Database™

2

A clear tool to measure and assess various types of ZEBs deployed across Canada at different stages of the transit electrification and decarbonization process using consolidated data from transit agencies and the public domain

3

A forecast of trends in Canada’s ZEB landscape that will shape the next twoyear period to 2026, in comparison with the targets set by the Government of Canada and provincial or municipal governments

4

A summary of challenges ahead and lessons learned in the procurement, adoption and deployment of ZEBs across Canada to assist public transit agencies, municipalities and private transit operators in their ZEB procurement journey

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3

ZEB Database™ design and development

The Canadian ZEB Database™ is grounded in a rigorous methodological approach that guarantees the precise collection, analysis and representation of ZEB data across transit agencies and jurisdictions.

The successful deployment of ZEBs requires strategic planning and a comprehensive understanding of the technology and implications of bus-fleet electrification. This principle is embodied in the design of the ZEB Database™, which aims to support the planning needs of transit agencies, municipalities and private transit operators to transition to ZEBs [10].

The Canadian ZEB Database™ is composed of three components:

Figure 1: ZEB Database™ components

•

Data: Canadian ZEB Database™ data comprise of primary and raw information collected from various sources. The two main data sources are the Canadian ZEB Database Survey™ (CUTRIC's proprietary transit agency-focused survey) and transit agency and manufacturer websites. Data collected through these sources include vehicle assets and infrastructure data that detail the current state of ZEBs in Canada [10].

•

Rollup sheet: The rollup sheet organizes raw data into a structured format. It is an intermediary between the raw data and the analytics dashboard, making it easier for CUTRIC researchers and analysts to understand the information [4]. CUTRIC uses Smartsheet™, a cloud-based data software platform to collect, analyze and store all data related to the Canadian ZEB Database™. The rollup sheet is populated directly from the "data" Smartsheet™ and is designed to automatically organize the information in a standardized layout highlighting key values [10].

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•

Analytics dashboard: The dashboard is a visual representation of the data collected. It provides a snapshot of the current state of ZEBs in Canada and a review of the provinces and municipalities that have committed to procuring ZEBs over the next two years. The dashboard is designed to support transit agencies and municipalities in tracking their efforts toward transportation electrification [10].

In summary, raw data are collected, structured and organized in a rollup sheet, which is then visually represented in an analytics dashboard for simplified understanding and tracking of Canada's progress toward transportation electrification and decarbonization.

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4

ZEB Survey

The ZEB Database Survey™ plays a crucial role in gathering data for the ZEB Database™ providing valuable insights regarding Canada's progress towards zero emissions. The ZEB Database Survey™ is distributed to transit agencies and municipalities via email to obtain direct data inputs.

Upon receipt of initial responses CUTRIC follows up with participants through email reminders and telephone calls to maximize response rates.

The Canadian ZEB Database™: Canada's Zero-Emissions Bus Landscape and Electrification Readiness Report #1 presents data collected primarily from CUTRIC members up to June 2022.

In Report #2, CUTRIC expands the participant base for the ZEB Database Survey™ to include nonmember transit agencies using data collected from June to September 2022. From September 2022 onwards (Report #3, Report #4 and Report #5), CUTRIC further expands the reach of its ZEB Database Survey™ participant group through targeted outreach efforts to large, medium and small transit agencies, including both member and non-member agencies.

CUTRIC's objective is to attain a 100 per cent participation rate from transit agencies across Canada as part of the ZEB Database Survey™

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5

Definitions and assumptions

The ZEB Database™ is predicated on several definitions and assumptions, which have been validated to represent the methodological rigour of the ZEB Database™ accurately.

5.1 ZEBs in Canada The following definitions describe the types of ZEBs considered and captured in the ZEB Database™: •

BEBs are powered by electricity stored in a rechargeable on-board battery pack.

•

FCEBs are powered by electricity stored in a rechargeable on-board battery pack, produced via a hydrogen fuel cell (HFC) that converts hydrogen into electrical power on-board.

•

Autonomous electric shuttles are powered by electricity stored in a rechargeable on-board battery pack. These mobility modes constitute an emerging class of shared mobility for firstkilometre/last-kilometre applications in local municipal systems. CUTRIC has not received any data indicating progress in deployment of autonomous shuttles, but it continues to monitor developments in the ZEB landscape regarding this technology.

5.2 Stages of transit electrification in Canada Figure 2 illustrates the six stages of electrification captured in the ZEB Database™, from initial conceptualization by an agency to full deployment with passengers onboard. These stages are described below.

Figure 2: Stages of electrification

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Stage 1. Pronouncement is defined as the stage at which a governing body issues a public statement of intent to commence or explore a transition to zero emissions.

Stage 2. Feasibility study is defined as the stage at which there is a commitment to engage an external entity for a predictive assessment of partial or full-fleet ZEB applications based on parameters such as energy consumption, costing and performance feasibility.

Stage 3. Funding is defined as the stage at which a municipal, provincial or federal governing authority has committed to fund the project.

Stage 4. Procurement is defined as the stage at which a contractual obligation to purchase ZEBs or related infrastructure has been initiated or signed.

Stage 5. Commissioning is defined as the stage at which ZEBs are deployed pre-service, undergoing checks, inspections and testing for safety.

5.3 Infrastructure The ZEB Database™ captures charging and fueling infrastructure for ZEBs according to the following criteria: Electric buses ● ● ● ● ●

Types of charging stations, such as plug-in and pantograph charging stations Location of charging stations, such as in-depot or on-route Number of charging stations Charging rate at a charging station in kW Charging model, (series or parallel)

Hydrogen buses ● ●

Hydrogen production method Hydrogen delivery method

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5.4 Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) Electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) refers to devices that provide electric power for recharging BEBs. The Canadian ZEB Database™ records EVSE for BEBs according to the following criteria: ● ● ● ●

Number of charger cabinets (devices that provide power to charge the BEBs) Number of charging dispensers (devices that connect cabinets to charging hardware and function as control units) Type of charging hardware (pantograph or plug-in) Manufacturer(s) of charging equipment for the above components

5.5 Data inclusion criteria The Canadian ZEB Database™ Report is based on data collected from the following sources: ● ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Transit agency or municipal/regional websites Approved council meeting minutes, reports, resolutions and strategies Transit agency interviews or direct outreach by telephone, video or email Press releases Focus groups hosted by CUTRIC, including focus groups held at the CUTRIC membersonly ZEB Committee and CUTRIC Members meetings Surveys CUTRIC in-house reports, policy briefs and white papers Other, for example, public policy documents issued by funding bodies

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5.6 Additional criteria in the report The Canadian ZEB Database™ Report includes additional data on the following criteria: ● ● ●

●

Modes or platform type: fixed route bus and on-demand transit Types of ZEBs: BEBs, FCEBs, autonomous shuttles and associated infrastructure Operational standards for EVSE: OppCharge™ [11], Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) J3105 Electric Vehicle Power Transfer System Using Conductive Automated Connection Devices1 [12], SAE J1772 SAE Electric Vehicle Conductive Charge Coupler2 [13], etc.

Stage of transit electrification: pronouncement, feasibility and modelling, funding and financing, procurement, commissioning and in-service (operating)

5.7 Criteria not included in the report The Canadian ZEB Database™ report provides insights into the zero emissions transition process of transit agencies only. The focus on transit agencies is due to the ZEB Database™ originating from focus groups that CUTRIC hosted, where transit agencies and manufacturers who are early adopters of ZEB technology shared their experiences, challenges and recommendations for transit agencies yet to start the zero emissions transitioning journey.

The Canadian ZEB Database™ report enables transit agencies to learn from the valuable lessons of other transit agencies and apply them to their situations. The following elements are not included in the report: ● ● ● ● ● ● ●

Rail and other non-bus modes Trolley buses Internal combustion engine (ICE) buses with gasoline or diesel, including hybrid dieselelectric buses and associated infrastructure assets School buses and non-revenue vehicles Private fleets or private interests Non-Canadian jurisdictions Other data not essential to characterize the quantity and quality of transit electrification such as performance data, weather and operating conditions, ridership numbers, revenue, political context and policy landscape

3 It provides guidelines for conductive power transfer, primarily for heavy-duty electric vehicles like buses, through automated charging systems. The standard covers the general physical, electrical, and communication requirements for the interface between the vehicle and charging infrastructure. It also includes three sub-documents: J3105/1 (Infrastructure-Mounted Cross Rail Connection), J3105/2 (Vehicle-Mounted Pantograph Connection), and J3105/3 (Enclosed Pin and Socket Connection) 4 It defines the general requirements for electric vehicle (EV) charging connectors in North America. It establishes the physical, electrical, communication, and performance criteria for the charging interface between EVs and off-board AC and DC charging stations. This standard supports both Level 1 (120V) and Level 2 (240V) AC charging, as well as DC fast charging up to 500V

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Data analysis

The fifth version of the Database™ includes data collected from January 2024 to July 2024.

The present iteration of the ZEB Database™ surveys 140 transit agencies. This Report presents updated data collected from 43 agencies representing diverse transit agencies.

The data received from transit agencies is supplemented by data collected through various sources, such as public transit agency websites, press releases from media outlets, peerreviewed academic articles, webinars and workshops. The Report also incorporates data from manufacturers' websites specializing in zero emissions vehicles and charging and fueling infrastructure. These varied sets of raw data are consolidated to inform the ZEB Database™ report’s descriptive statistics and comparative analysis of ZEB-adoption trends in Canada.

Any data received after July 31, 2024 have not been included. These data inputs will be consolidated in the sixth edition of the ZEB Database Survey™ and Report #6, scheduled for release in 2025. The sixth edition of the ZEB Database Survey™ and ZEB Database™ report will feature enhancements resulting from ongoing database augmentation aimed at improving the scope and utility of the ZEB Database™.

Based on the data received some participating agencies are still in the initial transition phase to a zero emissions fleet, while others are at a more advanced transition stage. Changes in responses compared to data from Report #4 (2024) show positive and sometimes rapid progress in the transition journey. The ZEB Database™ also reveals some areas of stagnation, where some transit agencies are at the same stage as they had been at the beginning of 2024. The factors behind this stagnation are discussed later in this Report.

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7

Current status of ZEBs in Canada

As of July 31, 2024, the Canadian ZEB landscape includes 5,459 ZEBs at different stages of transition ranging from "pronouncements'' through “feasibility studies,” “funding,” “procurement,” “commissioning,” and “in-service.” BEBs comprise 98 per cent of all existing national transit electrification plans while FCEBs constitute two per cent. Figure 3 represents the 5,370 BEBs and 89 FCEBs at various stages of transition ranging from initial pronouncement to active service.

Figure 3: Total ZEBs as of July 2024

Since January 2024, the adoption of ZEBs in Canada has increased. This trend is visually represented in Figure 4, which illustrates ZEB adoption data from 2021 to 2024. As shown in Figure 4, the number of ZEBs across the different stages of transition increased by 10 per cent since Report #4.

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Figure 4: Number of ZEBs in all stages of transition by year

The data show increases occurred in most stages of transition with pronouncement (7 per cent), feasibility (7 per cent), funding (39 per cent), procurement (5 per cent) and commissioning (21 per cent) (Figure 5). This increase may result from local government funding, policy support, economic resurgence and ZEB supply and availability, which have spurred the adoption of ZEBs at transit agencies over the past year.

The increased adoption of ZEBs also underscores the dedication and contributions of various sector and industry stakeholders. Organizations such as CUTRIC play a crucial role, in advocating for and supporting the widespread implementation of ZEBs across Canada. Their efforts include pushing for policy changes, providing research and insights and fostering collaboration among industry leaders to accelerate the transition to cleaner, more sustainable public transportation.

This concerted effort drives the adoption of ZEBs and helps achieve broader environmental goals.

In contrast, the in-service category remains unchanged at 255 buses (Figure 5). This stagnation suggests that while the transition stages are progressing, the actual deployment of ZEBs into active service has not yet seen a similar increase, likely due to supply chain factors and the time required for new buses to enter service after completing final commissioning checks and tests.

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Figure 5: Total ZEBs by stages of transition and year

The later phases of procurement, commissioning and active service provide a more precise overview of ZEBs currently in operation or soon to be deployed. At these stages, procuring bodies, such as cities, have typically signed official contracts or agreements. The ZEB Database™ indicates that 979 ZEBs are currently in the “procurement” to “in-service” stages. This figure is likely a much better predictor of ZEBs-on-roads next year than the 5,459 ZEBs across all stages.

Figure 6 illustrates how ZEBs are distributed across the six stages of transitioning.

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Figure 6: ZEBs according to stages of transitioning

The data regarding ZEBs categorized by propulsion type reveal a shift in the market from January 2024 to July 2024. Specifically, there is an 11 percent increase in BEBs over this period. This rise indicates a preference or enhanced adoption of battery electric technology within the ZEB sector. Conversely, during the same timeframe, there is an 11 percent decline in FCEBs. This decrease suggests a reduction in the deployment or uptake of fuel cell technology for public transit. These trends are illustrated in Figure 7, which represent the changes in ZEB propulsion types. The figure highlights the contrast between the increasing prevalence of BEBs and the decreasing presence of FCEBs, reflecting shifts in industry dynamics and possibly influencing future strategies and investments in zero emissions public transportation.

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Figure 7: Total ZEBs by propulsion type and year

7.1 Criteria not included in the report BEBs are the most common type of ZEB technology in Canada. Their preference can be attributed to their expected lower total cost of ownership (TCO) over the vehicle's life cycle and their quieter vehicle operation, perceived superior reliability and expected technological improvements in battery technology [14]. BEBs are expected to be more cost-effective and require less maintenance than diesel-powered buses, depending on the power grid from which they source their power, over the long term [15]. However, their adoption is not evenly distributed across the thirteen provinces and territories as demonstrated in Figure 8.

According to the data, transit agencies in Ontario report the highest number of BEBs at various stages of transition, totalling 2,640, followed by transit agencies in Quebec (1,612), Alberta (475) and British Columbia (456). The high uptake of BEBs in provinces such as Ontario and Quebec can be attributed to factors such as higher population density, a higher number of urban areas with higher ridership rates and a higher concentration of public transit systems and government and municipal supports, which have encouraged the adoption of BEBs in these provinces. The remaining provinces and territories of Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, Northwest Territories and Prince Edward Island Saskatchewan have transit agencies with fewer than 100 BEBs each. Data also indicate that transit agencies in Nunavut and Yukon have not initiated zero emissions transition plans concerning BEBs or transit decarbonization strategies.

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Figure 8: BEBs across all stages of transitioning by provinces/territories

The number of BEBs reported by transit agencies in the 2024 ZEB Database™ increased in the provinces of Alberta (62 per cent), British Columbia (26 per cent), Ontario (10 per cent) and Saskatchewan (144 per cent) (Figure 9). This growth can be attributed to several factors. New transit agencies are increasingly participating in fleet electrification programs, contributing to the rise in BEB numbers. Additionally, transit agencies lacking established electrification plans have made progress after conducting feasibility assessments and securing necessary funding.

These agencies have announced more concrete and actionable plans for integrating BEBs into their fleets. The 2024 ZEB Database™ Report #5 includes the debut participation in the province of Newfoundland. The town of Happy Valley-Goose Bay recently announced plans to purchase one electric bus along with two electric bus chargers [16]. This marks a step forward in the province’s commitment to adopting cleaner transportation options and reflects growing regional interest in zero emissions technologies.

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Figure 9: BEBs across all stages of transitioning by province 2023-2024

ZEB Database™ data indicate most BEBs are still in the “pronouncement” stage accounting for 2,805 (52 per cent) of all BEBs nationwide. This delay in moving beyond mere declarations can hinder the advancement of BEB adoption and slow the transition to cleaner public transit options.

Additionally, seven per cent of BEBs are in the “feasibility” stage, indicating that while some transit agencies are exploring the practicalities of BEB integration, many have yet to address the detailed technical and logistical requirements for successful deployment. This stage often involves extensive analysis and planning, which can extend the timeline for BEBs to become operational.

The 23 per cent of BEBs in the “funding” stage highlight the critical challenge of securing financial resources. Obtaining adequate funding is essential for advancing BEB projects from planning to actual deployment. Delays in this stage can stall progress and affect the overall timeline for BEB adoption. Moreover, the 12 per cent of BEBs in the “procurement” stage shows that while some buses are being actively acquired, the procurement process can be complex and time-consuming. This stage involves negotiating contracts, selecting suppliers and finalizing logistics, which can introduce delays and uncertainties.

Finally, with only five per cent of BEBs currently in the “in-service” stage, the limited number of operational BEBs underscores the slow pace of real-world deployment. This small proportion of operational BEBs reflects a broader challenge in transitioning from planning and procurement to actual service, potentially impacting the effectiveness of public transit’s shift towards zero emissions. Figure 10 shows these data.

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Figure 10: BEBs across Canada by stages of transition

The data show more BEBs in the first three stages compared to the last three. The stages after funding – procurement, commissioning and in-service – can be time-consuming for transit agencies and allied stakeholders. The timelines involved are due to the various hurdles transit agencies must navigate, such as facility upgrades, workforce considerations, real estate considerations and funding gaps. Overcoming these hurdles may take several years longer than expected at the outset of a decarbonization strategy. Additional challenges, such as utility restrictions, vehicles and allied infrastructure supply chain lead times and inflation, can alter the number of buses and allied infrastructure being procured compared to the initial plans of a transit agency at pronouncement stage.

According to the data for 2024 there is an upward trend in the number of BEBs in “pronouncement” (7 per cent), “funding” (35 per cent), “procurement” (17 per cent) and “commissioning” (21 per cent) from January 2024. Conversely, the "feasibility" stage has a decline of -18 per cent, indicating a reduction in the number of BEBs at this intermediate stage from January 2024.

Interestingly, the number of BEBs in the "in-service" stage remains unchanged as shown in Figure 11. This stagnation suggests that while progress is being made in the initial planning and transition phases, the deployment of BEBs into active service is not yet experiencing the same level of advancement.

These results highlight the complex and uneven progression of BEBs from initial planning stages to final deployment. The BEBs in later stages, such as procurement and commissioning, are particularly noteworthy as they provide a clearer and more predictable picture of BEBs that are either currently in operation or soon to be deployed. The data indicate that the transition process is gradual and there is very little movement toward realizing a more significant presence of BEBs on the roads.

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Figure 11: BEBs across Canada by stages of transition (2023-2024)

The ZEB Database™ collects data from transit agencies about the manufacturers from which they are purchasing their BEBs and allied infrastructure. Out of 5,370 BEBs in the Database™, 3,909 have supplier information. The data indicate Nova Bus has a 61 per cent share, followed by New Flyer with a 34 per cent share (Figure 12). Vicinity Motor Corp and Build Your Dreams (BYD) USA have shares of one per cent each. Different manufacturers might offer varying prices, delivery timelines, vehicle specifications and options (such as propulsion type, model, size, range and load capacity), charging solutions and local support for product maintenance. As a result, transit agencies may opt to purchase from a specific manufacturer.

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Figure 12: BEBs by vehicle manufacturer

Based on the ZEB Database™, 40-foot buses comprise 97 per cent of the Canadian BEB landscape with 4,458 buses. All other BEBs reported constitute 60-foot buses (72 buses) and 28-foot buses (44 buses) as shown in Figure 13. The remaining BEBs lack supplier data either because the transit agencies have not finalized the intended supplier, did not disclose the supplier through the ZEB Database Survey™ or because the data are not publicly available.

The 40-foot bus is the most common size used in transit fleets due to its balance of capacity and maneuverability [17]. This standardization often leads to cost efficiencies in manufacturing, procurement and maintenance, making 40-foot buses a more attractive option for transit agencies. The widespread adoption of 40-foot buses can also be attributed to their compatibility with existing infrastructure, reducing the need for costly adjustments. Many transit systems are designed around 40-foot buses and corresponding infrastructure such as bus depots, maintenance facilities and routes optimized for this size. Although 60-foot buses provide higher passenger capacity, they pose challenges when navigating narrow city streets and require more room for turning and parking. These larger buses are typically deployed on high-demand routes where their size is necessary to accommodate the volume of passengers. [17]. In contrast, 28foot buses offer better maneuverability but have reduced passenger capacity, making them less suited for heavily traveled routes. [17].

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Figure 13: BEBs by bus length (2024)

7.2 Charging infrastructure for BEBs The ZEB Database™ offers insights into the current status and plans for charging stations supporting BEBs across Canada. According to the latest data, there are 597 charging stations in various stages of development, ranging from initial planning (pronouncement) to those already in service. This represents a decline from Report #4 which reported 678 chargers. The data also reveal a shift in the types of charging technologies being adopted. Pantograph chargers are the more prevalent with 385 chargers reported, followed by plug-in chargers which number 212.

This represents a change from the findings in Report #4, where plug-in chargers have the higher number totalling 376 compared to 146 pantograph chargers.

This shift highlights the evolving preferences of transit agencies, influenced by advancements in pantograph charging technology. Pantograph chargers, particularly with improvements in automation, are becoming increasingly popular due to their convenience for both in-depot and on-route charging. They are more compact and allow for faster charging in more locations compared to plug-in chargers [18]. These technological advancements make pantograph chargers a suitable option for modern transit systems, leading to their increased adoption.

The ZEB Database™ also identifies the main suppliers of BEB charging infrastructure in the Canadian market. ABB holds a 72 per cent market share followed by Siemens (19 per cent).

Proterra, which filed for U.S. bankruptcy protection in 2023, has an eight per cent share, while ChargePoint and ClipperCreek have shares of one per cent each. Figure 14 and Figure 15 illustrate data on the types and suppliers of chargers, respectively.

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Figure 14: BEB charging infrastructure (2024)

Figure 15: BEB charging infrastructure suppliers (2024)

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Compared to previous reports, the data for Report #5 reveal an increased adoption of ABB chargers since January 2024, while the number of Siemens chargers decreased. This trend highlights the procurement choices made by various transit agencies, which have now been finalized and publicly disclosed or reported.

Several factors have influenced these procurement decisions. Cost considerations are significant as agencies aim to optimize budgets while ensuring efficient operations. Additionally, the overall charging strategy of each agency, which includes long-term planning and compatibility with existing infrastructure, has also been a critical obstacle. These strategic decisions reflect the agencies’ efforts to balance financial constraints with the need for reliable and effective charging solutions. (Figure 16).

Figure 16: BEB chargers by supplier (2023-2024)

According to the latest available data, there are currently 216 chargers in operation, marking an increase from the 150 chargers reported in Report #4. This growth underscores the country's expanding adoption of charging infrastructure for BEBs. Detailed data analysis reveal that 150-kW chargers are the most commonly adopted and have 196 chargers. This represents a rise from the 130 chargers documented in Report #4. Following these, the 60-kW and 300-kW chargers maintain their numbers with eight units each, showing no change from the earlier report. The data also report two 450-kW chargers and two 11-kW chargers. The overall increase in charger numbers reflects the ongoing adoption of charging infrastructure, supporting the transition to more sustainable public transportation options.

Figure 17 and Figure 18 illustrate charger rates for BEBs.

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Figure 17: Distribution of chargers according to charging rates

Figure 18: Chargers by charging rate 2023-2024

Transit agencies often lack data on charging infrastructure, mostly because they have not finalized their charging strategy. The missing data include the type (i.e., pantograph or plugin), location (i.e., in-depot or on-route), charging rate (i.e., 150 kW or 450 kW) and suppliers of chargers. These data gaps pose a challenge for data analysis and reporting, limiting the comprehensiveness of the charger section of the ZEB Database™ Report. In addition, these data are not publicly available as most transit agencies only provide general details, such as the number of chargers they intend to acquire, while specific information about the chargers remains undisclosed.

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7.3 Challenges of BEBs The adoption of BEBs poses several challenges for transit agencies.

•

Availability of buses and parts: Transit agencies face obstacles in deploying BEBs due to supply chain constraints that affect both the vehicles and associated charging infrastructure.

According to the ZEB Database Survey™, one transit agency reports that Proterra’s bankruptcy is causing difficulties with parts availability and maintenance for its BEB fleet. Similarly, Edmonton Transit Service (ETS) is also experiencing the impact. As reported by CBC News, more than half of ETS's electric buses are awaiting replacement parts, with some buses remaining out of service for over a year due to delays caused by these supply issues. The total cost of these delays has reached approximately $1.8 million [19]. A March 2024 news release reports Calgary Transit has paused its planned electric bus pilot project due to supply chain issues faced by the vendor, which has affected the expected delivery of 14 Vicinity ZEBs [20]. These disruptions underscore the broader impact of supply chain challenges on the timely deployment of BEBs across various transit systems.

•

High capital costs: According to manufacturer engagement a BEB with a battery capacity of 520 kWh can cost between $1.2 million and $1.5 million (2024) for a 40-foot configuration and $1.9 million and $2.1 million (2024) for a 60-foot configuration, more than double the price of a diesel-powered vehicle. Batteries represent a significant portion of BEB costs.

More affordable batteries are needed to make BEBs competitive with diesel buses.

•

Additional infrastructure costs: The chargers required to electrify a given fleet can add substantial capital costs. According to manufacturer engagement, a typical high-powered opportunity charging system with up to 450 kW of capacity costs approximately $1.1 million (2023). In comparison, lower-powered depot chargers cost anywhere between $56,000 and $560,000 (2023) per system depending upon the sophistication of the units, the volume of units procured at one time and the installation process's complexity. Two transit agencies report the cost of charging infrastructure as a barrier to expanding their fleet of BEBs. They emphasize that increasing the BEB fleet will necessitate substantial investments in upgrading electrical supply and service systems and modifications to their garages. One key challenge is infrastructure upgrades to support a full transition to electric buses – in particular, the increased cost of assets and infrastructure and the necessary funding to implement those assets. Without addressing these infrastructure and funding requirements, advancing the electrification of transit fleets remains a formidable obstacle.

•

Low performance and maintenance of buses: One transit agency reports that its buses are frequently out of service and downtime continues for up to 97 days due to various maintenance issues. These issues include battery replacements, complete propulsion system overhauls, 31

compressor and high-voltage junction box replacements and repairs to electric modules and DC boxes. While the agency hopes that the buses will last for 12 years, it anticipates that achieving even 10 years may not be possible due to the frequent maintenance needs and breakdowns.

Another transit agency reports that its BEBs are averaging only 2,300 kilometres per month in stark contrast to their diesel counterparts, which average 4,400 kilometres per month. This discrepancy is causing scheduling and operational efficiency difficulties, further complicating the BEB fleet's effective deployment.

Another transit agency reports the 50 per cent funding the federal government provides is insufficient to cover its needs. It currently faces high operating and maintenance costs, reaching up to $1.43 per kilometre. Additionally, it highlights that one electric bus cannot achieve 400 kilometers on a single charge. This limitation and the high costs associated with maintaining the technology make it more expensive to keep these buses in service.

Capacity restraints at transit facilities: Transit agencies report some transit facilities are decades old and upgrading the facilities to incorporate the design requirements for BEBs would be challenging, costly and complex. For some agencies, constructing a new transit facility is the only viable option. New facilities can take years to obtain funding and approvals, along with lengthy construction time.

•

Workforce capacity: Some transit agencies report their municipal staff lack the technical skills and knowledge to carry out the planning and implementation steps involved in transitioning from a diesel-powered bus fleet to a BEB fleet. This deficiency requires external consultant services from organizations such as CUTRIC, which can provide valuable guidance and assistance in developing a comprehensive infrastructure and operating budget plan for the transition.

•

Scheduling and energy costs: The duration of charging, the total draw of power from the grid, associated electricity costs and demand charges pose challenges when large numbers of BEBs are engaged in low-power in-depot charging. Depending on garage operations and capacity, fewer but more powerful chargers may be viable alternatives if distributed on-route and leveraged throughout the day to accommodate scheduling constraints. However, these solutions rarely result in cheaper energy prices [21].

•

Real estate: On-route charging presents real estate challenges and incurs installation costs.

When on-route charging systems are adopted, there is a need for roadside land acquisition and space allowances to install the chargers.

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7.4 Current status of FCEBs Adopting hydrogen fuel cell electric buses (FCEBs) is growing as a promising option for many transit agencies. FCEBs consume hydrogen onboard and emit clean water vapour from their tailpipes as the only form of emissions. The fuel-cell module generates electricity by consuming hydrogen, which charges onboard batteries that power an electric motor.

As previously cited, FCEBs constitute two per cent of the ZEBs currently being adopted across Canada. Data collected by CUTRIC indicate that FCEBs are being adopted in four of the 13 provinces and territories. Transit agencies in Nova Scotia report 47 FCEBs, Manitoba (20), Ontario (14) and Alberta (8) (Figure 19). In the case of Alberta, the City of Edmonton and Strathcona County are conducting a joint pilot study launched in October 2023 to assess the buses in realworld conditions [22].

Figure 19: FCEBs by province and territory

The ZEB Database™ reveals a 11 per cent decline in the number of FCEBs reported across Canada since Report #4. A provincial breakdown of the data reveal variations in the FCEB trends among different regions. Specifically, transit agencies in Alberta report an increased adoption of FCEBs by 14 per cent while agencies in Manitoba reported a 39 per cent decline in FCEBs. Transit agencies in Nova Scotia and Ontario report stagnancy (Figure 20). Data provided by Winnipeg Transit highlights a decrease in FCEBs in Manitoba reflecting the agency’s’ current and updated FCEB deployment plans.

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Figure 20: FCEBs by provinces and territories (2023-2024)

According to the ZEB Database™ more than half of the FCEBs (53 out of 89) are still in the feasibility assessment stage. No FCEBs are operating in regular service, as illustrated in Figure 21. The only exceptions are found in Edmonton and Strathcona County, where a joint pilot study is underway to assess the performance and reliability of FCEBs. It is important to note the ZEB Database™ categorizes pilot studies separately, as these buses are not intended to be part of the transit agencies’ permanent fleets. The reasons for the lack of FCEBs in operation are they are still largely in the demonstration or pilot project phase in many regions. The lack of extensive successful case studies and demonstrated reliability in harsh Canadian climates can hinder their broader adoption. The infrastructure required for hydrogen production, storage and refuelling is still underdeveloped in Canada. The scarcity of hydrogen refuelling stations and the logistical challenges of establishing a comprehensive hydrogen network create barriers to the widespread adoption of FCEBs. Regarding procurement, the adoption pattern of FCEBs mirrors that of BEBs. The most commonly procured FCEBs are 40-foot buses, although 60-foot and 30-foot models are also being evaluated for their feasibility and potential integration into transit systems, as depicted in Figure 22.

New Flyer is the sole provider of FCEBs reported by transit agencies across Canada. This highlights the company’s pivotal role in developing and deploying fuel cell technology within the Canadian public transportation sector.

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Figure 21: FCEBs by stage of transition

Figure 22: FCEBs by bus length (2024)

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7.5. Fuelling infrastructure Data on hydrogen fuelling infrastructure is challenging to obtain from transit agencies and the public domain. This lack of data is due to FCEB adoption being in its early stages compared to BEB adoption in Canada. Furthermore, to be considered “clean” or zero emissions, hydrogen must be generated either by steam methane reform (SMR) with carbon capture (“blue” hydrogen), by nuclear (“pink” hydrogen) or by electrolysis using renewable sources such as hydro, wind or solar (“green” hydrogen).

Data from Winnipeg Transit reveal the agency is establishing its hydrogen supply systems and plans to produce hydrogen on-site. Initially, the production capacity will be 225 kg per day, which the city plans to increase to 450 kg per day. In a recent media release, Winnipeg Transit announced its intentions to establish a hydrogen production system using methanol to generate hydrogen for new ZEBs. This marks a shift from the agency’s earlier plan, reported in Report #4 to produce hydrogen using electrolysis [23]. The current project will use methanol already delivered to Winnipeg by tanker truck for sewage treatment. This alternative has been chosen due to the high cost of electrolysis-produced hydrogen. According to Winnipeg Transit, despite the increased emissions from methanol production, the overall emissions from producing hydrogen from methanol and using it to fuel buses are approximately 60 per cent lower than the total emissions from operating diesel buses. The hydrogen fuel station for this project is expected to be fully operational by June 2025 [23].

In other developments, the City of Edmonton has decided to halt its plans for constructing a hydrogen fuelling station in the southern part of the city citing insufficient current demand for hydrogen. This decision stems from financial constraints that prevented the City from securing funding for 40 new FCEBs. As a result, the immediate need for the hydrogen fuelling station, initially announced in April 2023, has diminished. The City indicates that it plans to revisit the hydrogen fuelling station project when there is clearer and more consistent demand for high volumes of hydrogen ensuring it delivers maximum benefit to both the industry and the city [24].

Six other transit agencies report they have FCEB programs but state they are unaware of the source of their hydrogen at the moment. CUTRIC will continue to monitor the uptake of FCEBs and collect data from other transit agencies using hydrogen technology to include in future reports.

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7.6. Challenges of FCEBs FCEBs offer transit agencies several benefits such as similar fuelling and operation compared to current internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, range comparable with ICE vehicles and emissions reductions. These benefits make it a technology worth considering for transitioning to a low carbon fleet. Like any other emerging technology, FCEBs have their unique challenges.

These challenges have been identified across all four ZEB Database™ Reports and consolidated as follows: •

Cost profile: Based on interviews with manufacturers, FCEBs are more expensive than BEBs, costing from $1.6 million to $1.8 million (2024) for a 40-foot and $2.3 million to $2.65 million (2024) for a 60-foot. Operations and maintenance costs for FCEBs are expected to be higher than BEBs due to extra components the vehicles require. These components include a fuel cell, fuel tank and related fuel supplies [25].

•

Underdeveloped domestic hydrogen supply chain and the high cost of delivered hydrogen: Some transit agencies face challenges in obtaining hydrogen at a reasonable price in their province due to the lack of well-established hydrogen supply chains. One transit agency states that its geographic location and local restrictions limit its ability to consider hydrogen currently, adding that hydrogen delivery via truck is not a realistic option.

•

Lack of manufacturers for specialized FCEB buses in the market: Several small to medium transit agencies use smaller specialty transit or paratransit vans for public transportation.

For smaller vehicles, the market depends on a handful of manufacturers (Letenda, BYD and Electric Vehicle Star) or custom-made powertrain solution providers (Lightning eMotors).

There are no FCEB options in size range of 30-foot or less, marking a significant barrier for agencies who use smaller buses to transition. On the larger side, transit agencies report that limited 60-foot FCEBs options in the market are challenging for its transition as well.

•

Lead times for vehicle and electrical equipment: The limited number of FCEB manufacturers and fuel suppliers limits the production and delivery of buses and related infrastructure in light of supply chain constraints.

•

Inflation: The transition and purchasing process may take longer than expected, which may affect the purchasing power of the transit agencies. Due to inflation, budgets secured may not be sufficient to acquire the planned number of buses.

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7.7. No electrification plans According to the ZEB Database™, 13 surveyed transit agencies report no plans to transition to zero emissions vehicles in the near term. Most of these agencies are located in Ontario (eight out of the 13). The provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta each have two agencies that are not pursuing zero emissions goals, while New Brunswick has one (Figure 23).

Figure 21: FCEBs by stage of transition

The following is a summary of the main reasons that transit agencies in Canada report not pursuing zero emissions transitioning: •

IInfrastructure and operations: Many transit agencies do not have ownership or control over their buses and infrastructure, as they rely on third-party contractors to provide and operate their transit services. This reliance on contractors creates a challenge for long-term planning and coordination of transit electrification. Some agencies express doubts about the availability and reliability of the electricity supply needed to support large-scale electrification of their fleets.

•

Cost: The high cost of transit electrification, especially in the context of limited and uncertain transit budgets, is a challenge for transit agencies. Some agencies contend that electrified transit may not offer lower net costs than conventional transit as the upfront capital costs of purchasing electric buses and upgrading the utility infrastructure may outweigh the operational savings from reduced fuel and maintenance costs. One agency states it operates as a contracted service and that the additional cost of integrating EVs would be prohibitive.

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•

Technological complexity: Agencies lack knowledge of and expertise in the technology and performance of EVs. Agencies raise concerns about the efficiency and durability of EVs in extreme weather conditions, both hot and cold, which may affect battery life and range. One agency states it does not have electrification plans due to the high carbon intensity of its electric grid, which is still largely dependent on coal power.

•

Geographical location: Geographical location and service areas also pose challenges for transit electrification. Some agencies express uncertainty about the performance and suitability of BEBs in cold climates, especially in regions where the technology has not been tested or proven. One agency that operates in rural areas and covers more than 5,000 square kilometres in its service area states that the limitations of BEB ranges make it unlikely to decarbonize its system with BEB technologies alone.

•

Governance: Agencies report they have not received any formal or official commitments from their governing bodies or administrations to transition to ZEBs. These agencies are still in the process of initiating discussions and consultations to address the community’s commitment to zero emissions and to determine the next steps to achieve their goals.

•

Public resistance: One transit agency in the province of Alberta reports it does not have any zero emissions transition plans due to the political and economic situation of the city, which is heavily reliant on the oil sector and any attempts to transition to zero emissions vehicles are faced with strong resistance from the public. Consequently, there are no considerations for adopting the technology in the foreseeable future. Similarly, a recent news article reports that residents of Jasper have launched a petition against the acquisition of electric buses.

They cite the high costs of the vehicles and the infrastructure required for their operation as primary concerns. The residents argue that the escalating expenses associated with this technology are not sustainable in the long term [26].

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7.8. Funding sources The ZEB Database™ reports on the funding sources transit agencies leverage to finance their fleet electrification projects. These data are crucial to understanding the financial foundations that underpin zero emissions initiatives across the country. The ZEB Database™ contains data from 40 transit agencies, an increase from 33 reported in Report #4. Of these agencies, 32 indicate they are using federal funds, 21 are using provincial funds and 27 are using municipal funds. One agency states it is using private funds. Table 1 below illustrates the transit agencies' breakdown of these funding sources.

Table 1: Source of transit electrification funds

Source of Funds

Number of Transit Agencies

Federal

32

Provincial

21

Municipal

27

Private

1

Transit agencies also report on the funding programs supporting their electrification initiatives.

The most utilized programs among the transit agencies are the Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program (ICIP) and the Zero Emissions Transit Fund (ZETF) with 16 and 11 transit agencies utilizing these programs, respectively. Some transit agencies are also utilizing other programs at a lower frequency. The ICIP is particularly prevalent for transit agencies due to its broad scope and robust financial support, designed to facilitate major infrastructure projects, including those focused on enhancing transit systems with zero emissions technologies. This program plays a crucial role in enabling substantial investments in infrastructure improvements, essential for successfully integrating electric buses and related technologies.

Similarly, the ZETF is another key program that supports the transition to zero emissions public transit. This fund is specifically targeted at accelerating the adoption of zero emissions vehicles and infrastructure, making it a valuable resource for transit agencies committed to reducing their carbon footprint. The fund is important for providing targeted financial support that helps overcome the financial barriers associated with transitioning to electric transit options.

The reliance on these funding programs reflects the critical need for financial assistance in achieving electrification goals. Table 2 presents a list of funding programs transit agencies use for their electrification initiatives.

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s

Table 2: Zero emissions transitioning funds

t g

y

e

Source of Funds

Number of Transit Agencies

Investing in Canada Infrastructure Program (ICIP)

16

Zero Emissions Transit Fund (ZETF)

11

Zero Emissions Bus Initiative (ZEBI)

4

Emissions Reduction Alberta

2

Canada Community Building Fund (CCBF)

1

Zero Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program (ZEVIP)

1

Programme d'aide gouvernementale aux infrastructures de transport collectif (PAGITC)

1

Energy Innovation Program (EIP)

1

Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Demonstration (EVID) Program

1

Green Municipal Fund

1

Rural Transit Solutions Fund

1

The ZEB Database™ also reports on the procurement processes used to acquire ZEBs. Agencies are requested to select among the most common procurement processes as follows: •

Public bids and tenders: A procurement process that involves inviting suppliers to submit competitive bids for goods or services that the governing jurisdiction requires. The governing jurisdiction usually awards the contract to the lowest bidder who meets the specifications and requirements [27].

•

Joint procurement: A method of contracting in which two or more purchasers agree to use a single solicitation document and enter into a single contract with a vendor to deliver property or services for a fixed quantity of buses or chargers. Joint procurement can help purchasers save costs, access goods or services that may not be available and benefit from the expertise and experience of other participants [28].

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•

Negotiated request for proposals (NRFP): A process in which a need is identified, but the method of achieving it is unknown at the outset. These types of proposals allow for flexibility during the process and opportunity for vendor consultation and do not create a contract with the proponents submitting proposals. NRFPs involve only minor negotiations with the successful proponent. If unsuccessful the agency, retains the right to negotiate with the next highest rated [29].

The ZEB Database™ has data on 16 agencies’ procurement processes, five reporting they are using bids and tenders, five using a joint procurement process and six using a negotiated NRFP. The data are displayed in Table 3.

Table 3: Procurement process utilized by transit agencies

Procurement Process

Number of Transit Agencies

City/Transit bids and tenders

5

Joint procurement

5

Negotiated request for proposals (NRFP)

6

Other

0

The purpose of providing these figures it to inform transit agencies in the early stages of the zero emissions transition about the diverse range of funding sources and procurement approaches that can assist them in achieving their goals.

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8

Trends in transit electrification

This section analyzes current trends in transit electrification based on data from the ZEB Database™. According to current estimates, 5,459 ZEBs are currently at various stages of adoption in Canada. This estimate is 11 per cent higher than the 4,945 ZEBs reported in Report #4. The discrepancy may be due to various considerations such as increased participation of additional transit agencies in electrification programs, increased accuracy and completeness of reporting and improved data submission practices by transit agencies to the ZEB Database™.

These factors collectively contribute to the higher number of ZEBs now reported.

The federal government has set a goal of introducing 5,000 ZEBs by 2026 to reduce GHGs and support the transition to a low-carbon economy. The Canadian government has taken significant steps to support the transition to ZEBs nationwide. The ZETF, announced in August 2021, includes $2.4 billion in funding over five years to support public transit and school bus operator electrification plans, facilitate the purchase of ZEBs and build supporting infrastructure, such as charging and facility upgrades. This program has supported large joint procurement projects such as the Association du transport urban du Québec (ATUQ) procurement of 1,229 electric transit buses [30]. Similar projects, such as Metrolinx’s Transit Procurement Initiative, which aims to purchase 40 new electric buses (40-foot model), are being carried out across Canada, making it easier to purchase ZEBs at a lower cost [31].

In 2024, the federal government introduced the Canada Public Transit Fund, a significant investment aimed at enhancing transit systems in communities of all sizes across the country.

This initiative aligns well with CUTRIC’s mission to advance low-carbon, smart mobility technologies. The Canada Public Transit Fund is set to provide significant financial support, including an expected average of $2 billion per year, or $20 billion over 10 years, for MetroRegion Agreements. Additionally, the fund will offer $500 million per year, or $5 billion over 10 years, in both Baseline Funding and Targeted Funding. To access funding under the Metro-Region Agreements, local governments and transit agencies will need to collaborate with provincial governments to develop and share Integrated Regional Plans. These plans should detail how long-term capital investments in transit, active transportation, and complementary policies on transportation, land use, and housing will advance key objectives such as increased transit use, housing supply and affordability, climate resilience and social equity. A total of $20 million in funding is available for the 2024-25 and 2025-26 periods to support metro regions in developing high-quality Integrated Regional Plans. This fund builds on the success of existing initiatives like the Rural Transit Solutions Fund, the Zero Emission Transit Fund and the Active Transportation Fund. Ultimately, the Canada Public Transit Fund will contribute to the country's goal of net zero by reducing emissions in the transportation sector.[32]

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The Canadian Urban Transit Zero Emission Bus (CUTZEB™) Joint Procurement Initiative, an independent non-profit corporation that specializes in comprehensive and cost-effective joint procurement processes for small to medium-sized transit agencies, is also in its first round of joint procurement for 12 BEBs, along with in-depot and on-route chargers and supporting infrastructure as part of a turn-key solution for transit agencies [33].

The availability of the ZETF program and supporting programs has increased the number of transit agencies participating in zero emissions decarbonization efforts [34]. To evaluate the progress and feasibility of the federal government’s investment goals, CUTRIC applies a linear method of prediction to estimate the future number of ZEBs in Canada. This method assumes a constant rate of change in ZEBs over time. Based on both CUTRIC’s empirical ZEB Database™ and the Government of Canada’s funding data, the Canadian government is on track to introduce 5,000 ZEBs by 2026, resulting in 7,000 ZEBs in all stages of transition by 2026. Figure 24 illustrates the linear model of ZEB prediction based on all stages of transition.

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Figure 24: ZEB linear future trend (2018-2026)

These projections are based on the total number of ZEBs across all stages of transition. To accurately estimate the number of buses in active service by 2026, the linear trend analysis must focus specifically on buses currently in service. CUTRIC analyzes data from 2018 to 2024 and applies a linear trend analysis to forecast the number of ZEBs in service by 2026. The data indicate that approximately 360 ZEBs will be in service by 2026. Figures 25 and 26 illustrate these projections.

Figure 25: Linear trend analysis of in-service BEBs (2018-2026)

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The linear trend analysis predicts Canada will have approximately 360 ZEBs in service by 2026.

These estimates do not account for buses at other stages of the transition process. Several factors, such as funding availability and accessibility, supply-chain dynamics and technological maturity, can accelerate or hinder the actual deployment of BEBs. These predictions do not include other zero emissions technologies, such as renewable compressed natural gas buses (R-CNG), which may also contribute to the electrification of transit fleets.

In a recent interview with a BEB manufacturer, CUTRIC was informed that it typically takes about one year from when a transit agency finalizes a bus procurement to when the manufacturer completes the delivery of the buses. This interview was part of a new methodology being trialled

by CUTRIC, aimed at gathering direct insights from manufacturers regarding ZEB procurement and production processes and understanding how these processes impact the progression of buses through the six stages of transition.

In addition, transit agencies need time to commission new buses, including pre-service operations, training and testing. Based on this information, CUTRIC concludes that ZEBs not reaching the procurement stage by late 2024 are unlikely to be in service by the target year of 2026.

The linear trend analyzes buses from procurement to in-service stages. The model predicts there will be 1,400 ZEBs in service by 2026 representing 28 per cent of the government’s target of 5,000 ZEBs. To meet the target, transit agencies will need to accelerate their pre-procurement activities and finalize their procurements promptly to allow manufacturers sufficient time to fulfill orders. Consequently, federal, provincial and municipal funding sources must be readily available to enable transit agencies to complete the procurement activities. This analysis serves as a powerful reminder to transit agencies that have not started the electrification process to begin their transition soon, to participate within the remaining time frame.

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Figure 26: Trend line - ZEBS in procurement, commissioning and in-service

FCEBs and R-CNG buses have the potential to expand the Canadian ZEB landscape, especially in provinces where hydrogen infrastructure and supply chains are already in place where CNG buses are currently in operation. The viability of these technologies for reducing carbon emissions is supported by their operational benefits and alignment with existing infrastructure. As interest in these alternative technologies grows and advancements continue to emerge, CUTRIC anticipates the evolving landscape will likely reflect the increasing role that FCEBs and R-CNG buses play in meeting Canada's transportation sustainability objectives soon.

In summary, the Canadian ZEB Database™ supports the Canadian government's goal of deploying 5,000 ZEBs by 2026. It provides high-level projections of ZEB deployment using linear trend models, analyzes data from multiple perspectives and identifies necessary actions to potentially enhance bus deployment efforts to achieve this target

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9

Pilot Studies

The ZEB Database™ tracks pilot studies conducted by transit agencies, which involve temporary deployments to evaluate the effectiveness of ZEBs in specific operational contexts. These pilot studies are crucial for assessing how ZEBs perform under real-world conditions and fit within the unique requirements of different transit agencies.

The ZEB Database™ gathers and analyzes data from these pilot studies to promote sustainable and efficient transit solutions. By sharing insights and lessons learned from these early-stage projects with other transit agencies and sector stakeholders across the country, CUTRIC seeks to support the broader adoption and optimization of ZEB technology in transit systems.

The ZEB Database Survey™ requests participating transit agencies to provide detailed information about their ongoing pilot programs as follows: ●

Type of pilot program: Transit agencies are asked to describe the nature of their pilot programs. This description includes information about the tested buses' types, quantity and manufacturer.

●

Duration: Transit agencies are asked to specify the duration of pilot studies. This information helps to gauge the long-term impact and effectiveness of electrification efforts.

●

Progress reports: Transit agencies are encouraged to share web links to publicly available reports detailing the progress and outcomes of their pilot projects. These reports serve as valuable resources for the broader transit community.X

The ZEB Database™ reports eight transit agencies conducting pilot studies involving 18 electric buses (Figure 27). Agencies in Ontario lead the way with three transit agencies accounting for 10 pilot buses under study. One transit agency in Manitoba reports four buses currently under pilot, while agencies in Alberta report three buses. One agency in Saskatchewan reports one bus under study. All of the buses reported in these pilot studies are standard 40-foot buses. The duration of these pilot programs varies, ranging from a minimum of four weeks to a maximum of three years.

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Figure 27: Pilot studies according to province

Since 2020, CUTRIC has been engaged in a collaborative feasibility study with the City of Mississauga to assess the implementation of 10 FCEBs for MiWay, the public transit agency serving the city. This study is a key component of a broader phased transition plan to achieve full electrification of the transit fleet. Through this partnership, CUTRIC and the City of Mississauga are working to evaluate the practicalities, benefits and challenges of integrating FCEBs into MiWay's operations, thereby contributing to developing sustainable and electrified public transportation solutions [25]. Similarly, the City of Edmonton and Strathcona County have been piloting two FCEBs since October 2023. This initiative is part of a broader effort to explore and evaluate the feasibility of incorporating FCEBs into their public transit systems. It aims to assess their performance, efficiency and potential for broader regional deployment [22].

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10

CNG to RNG (R-CNGs) buses

Buses that use compressed natural gas (CNG) engines and are fuelled by natural gas supplemented by renewal natural gas (RNG) supplies are referred to here as R-CNG buses.

This type of vehicle has gained global importance due to the urgent need to reduce GHGs while maintaining operational costs comparable to diesel and CNG. In some cases, R-CNG buses can be more cost-effective and cleaner than BEBs or FCEBs [25].

According to CUTRIC’s 2022 report Renewable natural gas as a complementary solution to decarbonizing transit, a newly manufactured CNG bus fuelled by RNG has similar capital costs to a regular diesel bus [25]. It does not require additional or new infrastructure, making it financially attractive for transit agencies struggling with decarbonization [35]. RNG can be directly injected into CNG pipelines, leveraging already installed refuelling infrastructure. Introducing R-CNG into a fleet does not require significant technological or operational changes, as CNG buses are an established technology.

R-CNG buses in Canada do not qualify for funding under the federal ZETF [36]. For RNG to be climate friendly, it must be produced from waste methane that would otherwise have been released into the atmosphere [35].

The present Canadian ZEB Database™ Report excludes CNG and R-CNG buses from the analysis.

This omission is due to the absence of detailed information on the sources of CNG supply for transit agencies across Canada. Specifically, there is a lack of comprehensive data regarding whether the CNG is derived from renewable sources and if so, what percentage is renewable.

Three transit agencies across three Canadian provinces currently operate CNG buses: 464 CNG buses in British Columbia, 343 in Ontario and 151 in Alberta.

According to data from the Toronto Transit Commission (TTC) the agency achieved a significant milestone in 2023 by transitioning its entire fleet of 299 compressed natural gas (CNG) buses to run on 100 per cent renewable natural gas (RNG). This transition marks a pivotal step in the TTC’s ongoing efforts to enhance sustainability and reduce the environmental impact of its operations.

The transition to RNG reflects a commitment to innovation and leadership in sustainable transit solutions. As one of the largest transit agencies in Canada, the TTC’s decision to adopt RNG sets a precedent and demonstrates a proactive approach toward achieving environmental sustainability. It also positions the agency as a role model for other transit organizations considering similar upgrades. This move may also enhance the TTC’s eligibility for future funding and support from government and environmental programs prioritizing using renewable energy sources. By adopting RNG, the TTC meets regulatory requirements and potentially benefits from incentives and recognition associated with leading edge environmental practices.

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With sufficient support and resources, transit agencies may be able to leverage readily available and relatively inexpensive CNG vehicles to decarbonize with minimal infrastructure requirements, building off a network of RNG supplies in the near future. This case is especially true for jurisdictions where installing charging equipment for BEBs or sourcing hydrogen fuel for FCEBs may be a long drawn-out or infrastructurally challenging process over the next 10 years.

CUTRIC will continue to monitor developments related to R-CNG buses to identify fuelling sources and percentages of renewable gas in the future to include those data in future iterations of the ZEB Database™.

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11

HandyDART / ParaTransit / Specialized Transit

The 2024 ZEB Database™ includes data collection on transit agencies that express or demonstrate interest in deploying ZEBs for HandyDART, ParaTransit and/or Specialized Transit services. These services offer door-to-door and shared transit options for people with permanent or temporary disabilities that preclude them from using conventional fixed-route transit systems. The ZEB Database Survey™ requests participating transit agencies to furnish comprehensive information on the number, type and manufacturer of specialized electric vehicles they plan to adopt.

In 2024, no agency provided data reflecting planning or procurement of these vehicles for specialized services using zero emissions technology.

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12

On-demand Transport (ODT)

The 2024 ZEB Database™ includes data collection on transit agencies that have indicated or shown interest in deploying ZEBs for on-demand transport (ODT) services. On-demand mobility is transit service that allows passengers to reserve their trip online or through a software application at a suitable time within the service operating hours and to be collected from a predetermined location. The ZEB Database Survey™ requests participating transit agencies to provide detailed information on the type of electric buses they intend to adopt, their quantity and the manufacturer.

In 2024, no agency provided data reflecting planning or procurement of these vehicles for specialized on-demand services using zero emissions technology.

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13

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)

The 2024 ZEB Database™ includes data collection on transit agencies that have indicated or shown interest in deploying ZEBs for Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) services. BRT is a bus transit system that provides fast and efficient services at metro-level capacities using dedicated lanes and busways. The ZEB Database Survey™ requests participating transit agencies to provide detailed information on the type of electric buses they intend to adopt, their quantity and the manufacturer. The ZEB Database Survey™ also requests participants to describe the road infrastructure model for implementing the BRT system such as dedicated, bi-directional, mixed flow, hybrid and contraflow lanes and whether the road will be electrified.

In 2024, no agency provided data reflecting planning or procurement of these vehicles for BRT services using zero emissions technology.

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14

Canadian ZEB Database™ challenges

Despite the robust methodology CUTRIC uses to develop, deploy and consolidate the Canadian ZEB Database™, challenges remain in establishing such a comprehensive reporting tool.

•

Data collection: CUTRIC relies on transit agencies to voluntarily provide data for the Canadian ZEB Database™ through its ZEB Database Survey™. To solicit responses from transit agencies, CUTRIC employs follow-up emails and telephone calls and engages in promotional activities through its national ZEB Committee. However, there is no assurance that relevant transit agencies will respond. When the ZEB Database Survey™ response rate is low, CUTRIC uses secondary data from transit, municipal and ZEB manufacturer websites, media and press releases.

Some transit agencies may be unwilling or unable to provide data unavailable in the public domain, leading to information gaps. This gap increases when some of Canada’s largest transit agencies do not participate in the ZEB Database Survey™. Data from these agencies is material to the accuracy of the Canadian ZEB Database™ and is needed to provide a comprehensive overview of Canada’s ZEB landscape.

Using multiple methods, CUTRIC is committed to obtaining 100 per cent of relevant data from all transit agencies relevant to the ZEB landscape. CUTRIC continues to appeal to all agencies to participate in the ZEB Database Survey™ in future iterations.

•

Missing/incomplete data: While some transit agencies have responded to the ZEB Database Survey™, the insights they provide cannot be incorporated into the analysis due to a lack of crucial quantitative data. In most cases, such transit agencies are in the early stages of electrification and have yet to determine the type, number and manufacturer of ZEBs they plan to adopt. At times, the lack of data may arise because the respondent does not have access to all the relevant information required for the survey. These data may be managed by another department within the organization, leading to incomplete submissions. CUTRIC follows up on incomplete submissions with email and telephone communications to address incomplete submissions.

•

Adoption timelines: Some transit agencies have long-term transition plans extending to 2030 or beyond 2050, well past the government's target of deploying 5,000 ZEBs by 2026. These agencies report numbers based on their full deployment vision, not just the 2026 target.

Consequently, it is challenging to precisely determine how many buses will be adopted in Canada by 2026. CUTRIC continues to work with transit agencies to verify and update their data to ensure the accuracy and consistency of the ZEB Database™.

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•

Transit agency representative: In some cases, CUTRIC connects with a transit agency staff member familiar with the zero emissions plans and willing to participate in the ZEB Database Survey™. However, staffing changes may result in changes in agency representation when CUTRIC deploys the next iteration of the ZEB Database Survey™. CUTRIC may then need to find another knowledgeable and authoritative transit agency representative to participate in the survey process. As a result, information gaps may arise.

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15

Next steps

CUTRIC is dedicated to improving the scope of the Canadian ZEB Database™. The next iteration of the ZEB Database Survey™ will launch in January 2025 with the report scheduled for release in the first quarter of 2025.

CUTRIC is strengthening its strategies to ensure 100 per cent participation from Canadian transit agencies. The ZEB Database Survey™ is continuously revising to enhance its structure, wording and logic. Additionally, CUTRIC is introducing a new methodology that involves conducting interviews and collecting data directly from bus manufacturers and suppliers of associated charging infrastructure. This approach aims to ensure that the aggregated data reported by transit agencies is consistent with the information provided by manufacturers. By cross-referencing these sources, CUTRIC seeks to improve the accuracy and reliability of the data, enhancing the overall understanding of ZEB adoption and infrastructure development.

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16

Conclusion

This Report presents the status of the Canadian ZEB landscape up to July 2024. It describes the number, types, stages, provinces and manufacturer types of ZEBs deployed nationwide. It provides insights into transit agencies' issues and challenges in their decarbonization plans.

As of mid-2024, 5,459 ZEBs are at various transition stages, reflecting progress in many regions.

Transit agencies in Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and British Columbia lead in BEB adoption. A transit agency in Newfoundland has joined the list of participating regions.

Trends show increased activity in the planning and procurement stages, although the number of BEBs in service remains steady. FCEBs are gaining interest, particularly for transit agencies in Nova Scotia, Manitoba, Ontario and Alberta. However, transit agencies face challenges such as high costs and underdeveloped hydrogen supply chains. Meanwhile, 13 transit agencies report no immediate plans for zero emissions vehicle transitions due to challenges including infrastructure, cost and public resistance.

Electrification funding sources include federal, provincial and municipal programs with the ICIP and the ZETF being prominent. The data suggests Canada is on track to meet its goal of 5,000 ZEBs by 2026 with projections indicating a potential 7,000 ZEBs. Achieving this target will require accelerating pre-procurement and procurement activities and funding availability. Eight transit agencies are running pilot studies with 18 electric buses with varying durations and geographic representation.

Looking ahead, CUTRIC is committed to enhancing the ZEB Database™. Despite a robust methodology, challenges such as incomplete data and changes in agency representatives persist in the development of the ZEB Database™. CUTRIC continues to conduct a series of internal validation efforts to ensure the accuracy of information represented and shared within these reports. Where inaccuracies occur, efforts are undertaken to correct them promptly.

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Canadian Urban Transit Research and Innovation Consortium (CUTRIC) Consortium de recherche et d’innovation en transport urbain au Canada (CRITUC)