Vanguard Markets | Monday, July 21, 2014 | Issue 002
INTERVIEW
A cerebral approach to transactions at Olaniwun Ajayi LP ! Deal Engineer - page 3 Wolemi Esan
C-SUITE
Inside
Manufacturing roars ahead This is in line with growth rates of 14.2 per cent in the construction sector against 9.4 percent in 2012, and 12 per cent in the real estate sector versus 5.6 percent in the previous year. The take-off of the Nigerian Mortgage Refinance Corporation (NMRC) and the passing of the Pension Law Reform will give added fillip to home ownership in coming years further boosting the sector and its contribution to GDP growth.
Not so fast African wax fabrics mill
Source: shaddersafrica.com
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has released the first data set of growth rates since the country rebased its gross domestic product (GDP) in April. It reviews downward the 2013 national growth rate by 1.9 per cent from 7.4 per cent to 5.5 per cent. A careful study of the data confirms the maxim that the higher up the national GDP goes, the cooler the growth rate becomes. Bismarck Rewane, chief executive of Financial Derivatives, a consulting firm, observed said that ‘it is much easier to grow when you are small than when you are big.’ But the downward revision of the country’s growth is not the real story. That lies in the interesting trends revealed by the data.
Demographics is King Yvonne Mhango, sub-Saharan Africa economist at Renaissance Capital, in a report ‘Nigeria’s GDP: Bigger but Slower’ points out that the data
Annual GDP Growth
Real GDP Growth
7%
8% Nigeria
6%
Old GDP Series New GDP Series
7%
5%
6%
4%
Sub-Saharan Africa
3%
5% 4%
‘12
‘13 ‘14f ‘15f ‘16f
‘11
‘12
‘13
Source: World Bank
Source: National Bureau of Statistic, Central Bank of Nigeria
shows the nuggets in the Nigerian economy are not to be found in the oil and telecoms sectors as generally presumed. Instead, they are in manufacturing, specifically food, cement, and textile, as well as real estate. These are poised to benefit from the country’s booming population, and growing middle class. Despite the challenges faced in the power sector, manufacturing recorded solid growth of 22 per cent or a good one-third of total revised growth. This indicates the huge demand and market size for
producers in these beneficiary sectors. For example, the food, beverages, and tobacco subsector grew to 12 per cent – or almost half of total manufacturing quota - in 2013 from 7 per cent in the preceding year. Real estate is another dynamic sector. This should come as no surprise. Although it is generally agreed that valuations are excessive there is no debate that the rate of development in its cities is phenomenal. Cement, which makes up 1 per cent of GDP, grew by 25 percent from 14 per cent in 2012 to 39 per cent in 2013.
Mhango is clear that ‘telecoms growth is in the past and the sector has matured’. The issue the GSM companies are facing is a structural one, not one of tightening in disposable income as many commentators have noted about the brewery sector. Nigerians is a phone-saturated country. Beyond the din and ambiance of indistinguishable promos, most subscribers simply ignore the confusing menu of packages cast before them. In 2013, MTN, the market leader, added 9.3 million new subscribers but managed to grow revenues only by 5.7 per cent in the face of what the company describes as ‘aggressive competition and a difficult operating environment.’ This may have an unintended consequence. If growth is indeed slowing in the sector it means that there are fewer places to invest the huge revenues being generated by these companies. Therefore, the demand by Arunma Oteh, director-general of the Securities and Exchange Commission, and Oscar Onyeama, her
counterpart at the Nigerian Stock Exchange, that these companies be compelled to list makes a lot more sense. Slowing growth is evidence that companies in the sector are transitioning into the cash-cow phase, aka dividend distribution era. This will be a good thing.
Your listing or your life
A proposed bill to compel companies with either more than N40 billion in shareholders’ funds or over N80 billion in assets to list on the NSE raises serious questions.
Any cause for alarm? According to DaMina Advisors, a London-based risk research, and consulting firm, the decline is not good news coming on the heels of growing concern over the spread of the Boko Haram terrorist threat to the commercial capital of Lagos. DaMina analysts do not believe that a 4.5 per cent growth rate is unthinkable. If the foreign share of transactions on the NSE drop below the current 45 per cent suggesting capital flight, it will remove the cushion undergirding the high speculative forward price earnings multiples of many listed Nigerian companies.’ This could happen if a ‘combination of prolonged anaemic economic growth stagnation, falling oil exports, a fast depleted forex reserve stock and declining equity market valuations, which may be more proximate than is currently apparent.’ For the country’s policy-makers, the gallows consolation is that foreign investors looking for sub-Saharan exposure have few alternative choices. With a 2013 growth rate of 1.9 per cent, South Africa holds little attraction, and the prosperity of a growing number of regional economies are tightly correlated with Nigeria’s.
! Page 2
Back on the throne
Jim Ovia, founder of Zenith Bank, has resumed as chairman of Zenith Bank. This comes as no surprise to many who knew it was only a matter of time before he returned to what many call the Goldman Sachs of Nigeria.
! Page 2
Crossed fingers for Q2 earnings
Companies are set to begin releasing second quarter results. What lies in store?
! Page 6
Fixed Income & Forex
FGN Bonds & TBills 100B
FGN Bonds Treasury Bills
12.0
75B
11.5
50B
11.0
25B
10.5
0B
1M 2M
NITTY
3M 6M
9M 12M
10.0 04/07
09/07
14/07
17/07
O/N 1M
NIBOR 15.0
3M 6M
10/07
15/07
18/07
163.0
14.0
162.7
13.0
162.4
12.0
162.1
11.0
161.8
10.0 07/07
Bid Ask
FX ($/N)
161.5 07/07
10/07
15/07
18/07
07/07
10/07
15/07
18/07 Source: FMDQ