Vanguard Markets | Monday, March 16, 2015 | Issue 033
Verbatim
“
I remember when we were in South Africa on a state visit, MTN paid a courtesy call on me and one of the key things that we raised – myself and Ngozi (Okonjo-Iweala) the Coordinating Minister of the Economy, was the need for them to list. We are working very hard to make sure that companies that are supposed to list, list. That is the only way Nigerians can participate in some of these companies. And in the next four years we will look at it; it is a very delicate area. This government does not want to do something that will injure the private sector.
”
- President Goodluck Jonathan speaking at Nigerian Stock Exchange, Lagos, March 12, 2015 EMPLOYMENT
NBS survey shows formal sector new jobs’ slowdown in Q4 2014 World Bank figures show that as many as 41 million Nigerians, or 24% of the country’s 170 million population, are unemployed. The figures are grimmer for young persons below 24 years. The World Bank estimates that as many as 80% of this group do not have jobs. Government figures place this closer to 38%, which is still alarming. In the run up to elections, political parties are promising to create million of new jobs if elected though how they plan to is vague.
FOREX RATES
$/N
196.5
197.1 196.8 196.5 196.2 195.9 Fr
Mo
£/N
HE NATIONAL BUREAU T of Statistics published its 4th Quarter Job Creation and Employment Generation Survey last week. It covers from September-December, 2014. According to the agency’s statistics 1,121,052 new jobs were added to the national economy last year. The figures on private employment are useful because they serve as a proxy of economic health. One canary in the coal-mine view is that companies will shed jobs faster than the economy is contracting, and hire slower than the economy is growing. Now in its third year, the NBS’ Quarterly Job Creation and Employment Generation Survey survey covers 5,000 establishments spread across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The latest survey had a response rate of 82.10%. A sample of 5,000 establishments was taken across the country covering all sectors of the economy. NBS categorizes employers into 3 groups: formal (these have 10 employees and above or are professional firms with less than 10 employees), informal (less than 10 employees or operating with only basic structures), and public (government ministries, departments, and agencies across the three tiers and arms). The low employee cut-off mark for the formal sector allows the survey to capture micro-, small-, and me-
Job seekers crowd around an official at last year’s recruitment exercise for the Nigerian Immigration Service. Reports said 500,000 applicants were invited to apply for about 4,500 vacancies.
New jobs for all sectors: Q3 2012- Q4 2014 Sectors Formal Sector Informal Sector Public Institutions Total
2013 2014 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 174,326 80,412 76,385 101,597 76,018 78,755 145,464 138,026 232,327 112,567 140,673 143,278 158,894 175,786 198,144 227,072 24,368
28,075
28,931
20,827
5,959
4,812
5,735
4,387
431,021 221,054 245,989 265,702 240,871 259,353 349,343 369,485 Source: National Bureau of Statistics
dium scale enterprises (MSMEs) far better than many other surveys do. In the formal sector, 38.10% of
new workers during the review period were hired to fill positions left by ex-employees. Business expansion
came next at 24.37%, while 18.86% were employed to ease the work burden on existing staff members. In considering the number hired to fill positions left by ex-employees (52,588) it is important to recall that they were replacements to departed personnel, and did not have a net positive effect on employment figures. During the year, employee replacements totalled 145,975 out of 438,263 creaed in the formal sector. It is illuminating how replacements slowed down in absolute numbers in the last quarter (52,588), against 55,422 in the third quarter. This could highlight a watch-and-see attitude on the part of businesses to refill their payrolls when employees leave due to the first signs of economic turmoil that became obvious in the final three months. The informal sector was a different story. It added 14.50% more jobs over the third quarter, while the formal sector shrunk by 5.11% in new job additions. The breakdown of new jobs by business activity showed that education added the most jobs in the 4th quarter (39.65%), followed by manufacturing (22.75%), trade (7.72%), which was almost tied with accomodation and food services (7.36%). Agriculture came further down on the list (6.40%) and so did financial intermediation (3.39%).
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We
Th
Fr
290.7218
301.0 298.0 295.0 292.0 289.0 Fr
Analysis
Tu
Mo
Tu
Euro/N
We
Th
Fr
207.9167
217.0 214.0 211.0 208.0 205.0 Fr
Mo
Tu
We
CNY/N
Th
Fr
31.3868
31.80 31.60 31.40 31.20 31.00 Fr
Mo
Tu
We
CFA/N
Th
Fr
0.3079
0.34 0.33 0.32 0.31 0.30 Fr
Mo
Tu
We
Th
Currency
Central Rate
SWISS FRANC
194.9985
YEN
1.6179
WAUA
269.7703
RIYAL
52.3916
DANISH KRONE
27.8775
SDR
269.3819
Fr
FIXED INCOME & FOREX
Source: FMDQ