Theme 1: Topic 3
The Demographic Transition Model
The Demographic Transition Model Stage 1 HIGH
Stage 3
Stage 4
Large families Birth rate falls due to changing social conditions
Birth rate and death rate
The Demographic Transition Model is a model of the way that population growth can be divided into four stages as birth and death rates change over time. It is based on what has happened in Europe and North America. The part of the graph representing population growth is the area between the lines, where birth rate is higher than death rate.
Stage 2
Death rate falls due to better health care and living conditions
Small families Birth rate Death rate
LOW TIME Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Birth rate Death rate Natural increase
Reasons for falling birth rates and death rates Falling birth rates are caused by: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■
availability of contraception more women go out to work girls are educated and marry later reduction of infant mortality more family planning education less need for children as a labour source
Falling death rates are caused by: ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ ■
improvement in health care facilities increased availability of medicines and doctors more and better quality food available improvement in water supplies improvement in sanitation and hygiene reduction in wars and conflicts
TASK 1: Study Source a What is meant by birth rate, death rate and net migration? b What is the difference between natural population change and overall population change? c Explain how a country with a high birth rate could experience population decline. d Explain how a country with a low birth rate could have a high rate of population growth. TASK 2: Study Source a Calculate the natural population change of Morocco per 1000 people. b Calculate the overall population change of Poland per 1000 people. c Draw a bar graph to show the overall population change for all five countries listed in Source B. d Calculate the overall rate of population change of the country in which you live, as a percentage. You will need to find out the birth rate, death rate and net migration. For
any country this information can be found at: www.indexmundi.com/factbook/countries TASK 3: Study Source a Make a copy of the Demographic Transition Model in Source C. Shade in the natural increase. b Make a copy of the table under the graph. Complete the first two rows of the table using the words high, low or decreasing. Complete the third row using the phrases small increase, large increase, slower increase and fluctuating. c Explain why a large population increase occurs when a country is in Stage 2. d Explain why there is only a small population increase when a country is in Stage 4. e Today some countries have birth rates that are lower than death rates, so their population is declining. On your copy of the Demographic Transition Model, add an extra stage to show this and label it ‘Stage 5’.
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