Climate Change Adaption - Viticulture

NORTH WEST TASMANIA - CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION - FACT SHEET

VITICULTURE VULNERABILITY RATING (Low—High)

PROGNOSIS Wine grape production is predicted to experience several detrimental effects under a changing climate. Although there are several adaptation options available to wine growers in the region, the introduction and marketing of new varieties may not be viable for all growers.

THE FUTURE OF VITICULTURE IN THE CRADLE COAST NM REGION The production of wine grapes in the CCNRM region is concentrated in the Kentish, Latrobe, Devonport and Central Coast LGAs. The entire CCNRM region is projected to have an increase in temperature of 2.6 to 3.3°C, which is similar to the rest of the state1.

It is suggested that the wine industry’s dependence on climate makes it particularly vulnerable to climate change2. The same study also suggests that there are dual impacts of climate change and that a temperature increase will not only impact on the ripening period but will also accelerate phenology causing earlier maturation and budburst.

Changes in rainfall expected in the wine growing region of the Cradle Coast is projected to increase in summer and winter by up to 10% and slightly decrease in spring but little change is expected during autumn. The predicted increase in rainfall may increase the risk of fungal disease during the crops’ vulnerable development stage2.

Changes in temperature during the growing season (October-April) will have an impact on the varieties of grapes suited to the region with each variety limited by an ideal temperature range (Table 1).

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Holz et al., 2010 Webb et al., 2006

This project is supported by Cradle Coast NRM, through funding from the Australian Government

NORTH WEST TASMANIA - CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION - FACT SHEET Table 1. Ideal grape variety growing season (Oct-Apr) temperatures. Source: Jones (2005) in Hayman et al(2009).

Another major contributing factor to wine growing is the number of Growing Degree Days (GDD). GDD are a measure of the heat to grow and ripen crops2.

Due to climate change, the number of GDDs are projected to increase across the region (Figure 1). Projections suggest that the increase in annual GDD at Kindred is expected to increase from less than 1000 to around 1750 by the end of the century2 (Figure 2).

Figure 1. Annual growing degree days under the A2 emissions scenario. Source: Holz et al., 2010

Figure 2. Change in growing degree days under the A2 emissions scenario from (―) 1961‑1990, (―) 2071‑2100, ( and ) daily ranges.

Source: Holz et al., 2010.

This project is supported by Cradle Coast NRM, through funding from the Australian Government

NORTH WEST TASMANIA - CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION - FACT SHEET An analysis using a range of temperature based parameters, under the A2 emissions scenario, found that by 2070 northern Tasmania will experience similar conditions to those currently occurring in the South Australian wine region of Coonawarra3. It is suggested that there will be potential for investment in varieties such as shiraz and carbernet sauvignon1.

ADAPTATION OPTIONS FOR WINE PRODUCERS For wine growers to continue to prosper under a changing climate there are several adaptation pathways; ⇒

Investigating the potential to introduce new varieties of grape capable of growing in warmer conditions.

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Continued management of frost risk as budburst is likely to occur earlier than current.

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Understanding and managing disease and considering the introduction of disease resistant crops.

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Exploring the potential for land use change which may arise in areas currently limited by temperature.

REFERENCES Hall, A. and G.V. Jones, 2008, Effect of potential atmospheric warming on temperature based indices describing Australian winegrape growing conditions. Australian Journal of Grape and Wine Research, 15(2), 97-119 Hayman, P.T., Leske, P., and Nidumolu, U., 2009, Climate change and Viticulture. Informing the decision making at a regional level, South Australian Wine Industry Association and South Australian Research and Development Institute., GWRDC Project SAW 06/01, Version 1.0 Holz GK, Grose MR, Bennett JC, Corney SP, White CJ, Phelan D, Potter K, Kriticos D, Rawnsley R, Parsons D, Lisson S,Gaynor SM & Bindoff NL 2010, Climate Futures for Tasmania: impacts on agriculture technical report, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania.

Webb, L.B., Whetton, P.H. and (Snow) Barlow, E.W.R. 2006, Potential impacts of projected greenhouse gas-induced climate change on Australian viticulture, Wine Industry Journal, 21(16) Image: State of Tasmania, 2012, The Wine Industry in Tasmania, A guide to investors, Department of Economic Development, Tourism and the Art 3

Hall and Jones, 2008

This project is supported by Cradle Coast NRM, through funding from the Australian Government