8 September 2022
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The growth outlook
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Spring is upon us or almost here depending on the starting date you use, and improvements in the temperature can often lead to generally improved sentiment which may lead to a slightly improved economy. The links are a bit tenuous and too often people get focussed on specific factors thinking they will hugely determine where things are headed. The job of us economists is to acknowledge special factors and seasonal influences but concentrate on the broader underlying trends to gauge generally what lies ahead and what people should consider as they make their plans. We have to my mind decidedly proven over the past 15 years that we cannot reasonably predict changes in the pace of economic growth, inflation, interest rates, or of course exchange rates. Best add oil prices, minerals prices, dairy payouts beyond one season, and to a great extent house prices. We know we can’t do these things but people nonetheless keep asking for forecasts even right after we describe the way things in the past turned out vastly different from what we anticipated. It all comes down to reasonable risk management and the ability for all parties down the track to be able to say that at the time such and such a thing was the reasonable action to take in light of what we knew at the time and where things looked like they were headed. So, keeping that caveat in mind, when we look towards where the economy is headed there will be some people who might be getting excited about things based on the weather getting better. Most however will continue to wallow in the dominant negative factors for all the rest of this year towards the middle of 2023. Identifying the negative factors is never hard. We humans have a natural tendency to focus on the negatives and the media play them back to us. Keepingon eye on thepositive factors is generally more difficult.
Russia is using gas supply as a weapon against European countries and the soaring cost of energy is hitting household budgets and crimping business profits and ability to produce. The artificial energy crisis risks throwing Europe and the UK into recession for the latter part of this year into 2023, especially as interest rates are rising at the same time not so much to slow growth as to make sure no one expects high inflation to continue. Falling housing wealth Average NZ house prices have fallen 10.8% from their November 2021 peak and maybe will decline another 5% or so. Pure guesswork frankly. As peoplesee thepapervalueoftheirhousingassets decline they are likely to cut back spending.
Cost of living surge
We are having to allocate more money to paying the weekly shopping bill and that is also causing spending to be cut in other areas.
Here then are a couple of lists. The first list is of most but not all of the negatives which will impede the pace of economic growth over the next couple of years. Or, to put it another way, will make life running a business difficult and returns on investments potentially weak and volatile.
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Fixed mortgage rates rose 3% 3.5% in ten months compared with rises of less than that over 4.5 years last tightening cycle. Even though rates have decreased 0.2% 0.4% since June, most people rollingoffan old rate now will potentially be paying an interest rate near double what they were on previously.
Weather/climate change
We are choosing to allocate more money to getting out of our oppressive low income country for a while and that means less money available for spending on other things.
Offshore travel
Binge over During the pandemic we binged on many large consumer items. Now, having got our new spas installed, we don’t need any more for a few
We are having to withstand some fairly bad weather in many parts of the country and increasingly give thought to what climate change means at the personal level. For myself it means installing a new culvert to handle heavier rain events and allow for blockage of the old one from potential slips caused by new overflows from my road which the council shows no interest in addressing House construction correction There won’t be a fundamental over supply of property in New Zealand but talk of such is one factor which has caused potential buyers of new builds to back off. Stories of failed projects and demands for higher payments abound. Pre sales have become much harder to achieve and although there won’t be a crash there is a good chance that the volume of house building has already peaked and will now ease off for the next three or so years.
Recession in UK and Europe
Interest rates
Confidential to the email recipient Page | 3 decades. Sales of the likes of furniture and appliances will pull back now from an unsustainable one-off surge.
boosting factors
At least once a generation many young Kiwis go to Australia to make money. The draw to do so currently may be the greatest we have ever seen given the extreme shortages of labour across the Tasman and strong growth in many sectors.
Food exports
The NZ currency is trading at below average levels. We did not go into this current period of challenge with a high exchange rate as has often happened in the past when interest rates have been increased. Rate rises this time are happening offshore as well and New Zealand does not stick out as offering a likely ongoing interest rate premium to investors.
NZ dollar
Infrastructure spending
There is decades worth of activity needed to catch our infrastructure up to the demands of our population and to prepare for the future.
Businesses are cutting output and having to replan future growth because of the low unemployment rate and high absenteeism.
Election year spending
The latest data show that the government’s fiscal deficit for 2021/22 is running some $5bn less than Treasury predicted in December. With the political opinion polls showing an increasing chance of Labour losingnext year’s general election, we can anticipate they will do what Labour governments have done in the past when facing a loss. They will open up the spending spigots in the May Budget.
Business profits and ability to plan are being hit badly by continuing disruptions to the supply of materials, especially from China where currently over 60 cities are locked down to fight Covid 19.
Labour shortages
There is a food crisis offshore caused by climate change and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. New Zealand, like Australia, is a food producer. Higher food prices may hit household budgets, but there will be a boost to our export receipts and encouragement to farmers to plant more to take advantage of the sometimes high food prices.
Supply chain disruptions
Insulating/growth
Rising uncertainty about military action offshore will naturally act to discourage some business investment while injecting caution amongst consumers.
Now, here is a list of factors which will either boost the pace of growth or at least provide some insulation against the dampening effects of the negatives
Brain drain to Australia
Rising global military tensions
The decline in house building from current levels will be slowed by the fact that there is a large backlog of work ordered but not yet able to be started or completed because of resource shortages. Job security The most unique feature of this period of economic challenge is the low unemployment rate of 3.3% and the still positive levels of business hiring intentions despite their high pessimism about the economy overthecomingyear. High job security for wage and salary earners has very important implications. It means many people remain interested in buying property and will emerge to place orders for new houses or bid for existing ones once things look better some months from now. Good job security will also limit the extent to which spending is cut back along with the incentive to shift to Australia for work.
The level of funds in household bank accounts is some $38bn or 21% more than just before the pandemic. There is a good buffer for levels of household spending. Growing sectors Some sectors in the economy are experiencing ongoing long-term growth. A few include aged care, healthcare, space, games development, horticulture, green energy.
Absence of mass layoffs
The negative factors currently and immediately prospectively in play dominate the positive factors and that means below average growth in our economy. But recession is not highly likely given some of the unique characteristics of this period of volatility and challenge including the strong labour market.
Backlog of house building
Foreign students
Household bank deposits
Businesses are aggressively short of staff and there are likely to be very few mass layoffs akin to what we have seen in previous periods of challenge. The two recent announcements have concerned a ski field hit by no snow for a while, and a tertiary institution affected by the absence of foreign students and domestic students going to work instead of studying. Foreign tourists
The number of foreign students in New Zealand is once again rising with good flows expected in 2023. But it will likely take a number of years for numbers to return to where they were same as for inbound tourism.
The number of foreign visitors to New Zealand is likely to be good this summer, even though flows will be constrained by weak economic conditions in source countries, lack of airline capacity, and wordofmouth warningsabout the impactonone’s experience of the lack of staff.
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• Probably too early to call but it feels like the past 4 weeks have seen a gentle slowdown of the falls, almost like we’re approaching a soft landing near the bottom. I’m definitely feeling more positive about the next 6 months.
• Noticeable and frustrating upswing in the number of contracts not completing.
Northland • Our region mirrors the markets of the regions that drive our buyer demand. A fall in the sale volumes in Auckland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty is affecting sale volumes in the North. This has not necessarily had too much impact on values, but we will see this in coming months.
• I am findinga lot of interest online which does not translate to visits to open homes. $4m properties are in a difficult bracket. $2m properties are popular by comparison.
• We cover areas within Auckland as well as Northland and see little difference between the areas. The biggest issue at the moment is buyers with properties to sell not selling due to expected sale price being more than buyers are prepared to offer. We have a number of chain sale transactions, all needing to be negotiated to complete, and if one won't then the chain is falling.
• With Spring around the corner there appears to be more people getting ready to put their home on the market. It has been a very wet winter here and this has put people off. Listing numbers are right down. I get the feeling we are going to see the more traditional type of spring market that we use to see about 15 years ago
• Open home numbers steady average 3 to 4. Auctions our office had 80% clearance for July. August is slower but there is a lot of conditional int subject to sale and or finance a lot of properties with offers being cashed out. Back to a more. Normal market
• Cbd apartments low buyer closure rates continue, falling prices required to sell and vendors typically holding out. City fringe apartments I sell are in reasonable demand and prices holding, still low numbers but higher closure rates.
• Buyers know there is more stock coming to market and they are hoping prices will continue to drop so there is no incentive for them to make a move. The pressure has been on buyers for so long, and now its off. They can relax, watch and wait.
Real estate agent insights In each month’s survey of real estate agents alongside REINZ I invite respondents to offer up a sentence or two on how they are seeing conditions at their coalface. This week I reprint many of the comments made for the regions of Northland down to Waikato. Enjoy.
• Noticed a huge increase of people attending open homes but they are in absolutely no hurry and trying to get things for a bargain.
• I feel that there is a flattening out of prices
• Do feel a change in the market right at this minute with overall stronger buyer inquiry. Still no FOMO however I believe this will follow. Stock is limited and buyers want to find a home this may well see us achieve a shift in price through competition.
Auckland • Sellers waiting until prices go up.
• The market is slower but genuine buyers are paying a good price for the right property
• Most segments of our local market seem to be enjoying a winter hibernation.
• The market in my area is way better than the media would have you believe
• Generally the market has turned a corner for us across all markets including coastal and
• I find the sellers want to transact but on their terms, they are still after all these months not conditioned and accepting of market changes, they do not know a good offer when they see it at all and want top dollar even with a radical change to the market like we have experienced. However, the buyers are too much the other way so it is not abnormal to be closing up to 1m gaps with much reluctance on both ends which leads to lost opportunities more often than not.
• Weoperate in West Aucklandand Lower Hutt (WLG) and have noticed lifts in inquiries in both these areas and a lift in unconditional sales.
• Buyers aren't finding a lot of choice despite high overall listings numbers. New builds are out of favour and off plan or partially built sales for small neighbourhood projects are next to nil. 'A grade' properties are finding multiple buyers.
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• The wealthy are still buying, some amazing sales prices in the high range in Auckland
• I recently listed a four bedroom plaster home on the North Shore. I have had over 70 buyer inspections in just two weeks on the market huge numbers. Usually these homes take a while and do not attract that much interest and open homes recently were slow one or two groups through. I have at least 8 motivated buyers. It definitely feels as if there is a lift in the market
• I always have a gap for homes in Remuera in the $4 $6m range and when I do the open home numbers are high!
• It appears banks and mortgage brokers are instigating buyers to put lowers offers so they can get the loan approved. On the flip side vendors are not happy to go below their grumpy price.
• Moreand more buyers are makingoffers now instead of sitting on the fence
• Multi offers are back in play and auction clearance rates are nudging up. Websites appear to have lots of listings but not enough good ones when you cut through the 'off the plans' properties there's not a lot there which is consistent with a late winter market. Some optimism around with interest rates nudging down recently. Definitely the fall in prices has stopped but more listings will be coming in spring so it is hard to know what will happen once that happens. Spring appraisal requests are starting to come in best they get on the market before everyone else!
• By and large, the market has fallen considerably (10 20%) for properties with development potential, and eventually affected smaller units as well. The premium properties (2million+), seem to be holding their value.
• A couple of our photographers and stagers are citing "low number of bookings over the next few weeks" a good indicator of a potential lack of upcoming listings despite the Spring season.
• We've noticed a 22% increase in enquiry levels since the lowering of 1 year rates 3 weeks ago. Unconditional sales were up nearly 30% in August compared to June and July.
• Feeling like more activity. Vendors seem to be more likely to meet the market. Now realising that the market has come back and they won't get the sale price their neighbour received a year ago.
• The buyers that are out there actively looking are wanting something that is 200K out of their budget. Hopes are high and budget is low.
• The coal face feels more positive than it has from a buyer and seller perspective. Waikato • Buyers are looking for any excuse not to proceed and then they fade away
• The tide is beginning to turn in Auckland. Buyers are now looking for opportunities.
• If buyers can get finance they are now in a strong position to buy as long as valuers value the property in line with contracts. Valuers are being cautious and expecting prices to still fall. Bay of Plenty • Definitely a big increase in buyers over the last few weeks.
• Buyers in the market, but many are conditional on selling their own homes first.
• Last 6 7 weeks has seen a marked increase in buyer activity from inquiry to viewing. Though still placing cautious offers. We are starting to see some multi offers and back up activity. • South AKL market is very slow.
• Over the last 3 or so weeks I feel the market may be on the turn for the better. Why? Pre auction offers and multi offers are occurring for the first time in 9 or so months. Enquiry is improving also and buyers are returning to open homes • Properties $4m plus seem to be unaffected. Definitely more interest at last week's auctions.
Confidential to the email recipient Page | 7 lifestyle and the activity has increased significantly. I think people are ready to get on with it.
• Definitely fewer cash buyers around and an increasing number of conditional to house sale contracts. A lot of buyers reluctant to make offers because their city properties are not selling. Beach property vendors are still expecting high prices and subsequently are also not selling. Mortgagee sales are starting to appear.
• There seem to be more multi offers happeningand some are missingout. Buyers are more calm (accepting of todays rates etc?) than before and a number have sold and are earnestly seeking a home. A few vendors are still holding onto unrealistic prices. Some buyers are surprised they are missing out!
• There is still a massive gap between buyer and seller expectations regarding price.
• Have definitely seen an increase in buyer activity and motivation in the past 2 weeks
• Since the sun has come out the buyers are coming thick and fast. 3 properties under contract over the weekend. Buyers are stating they have a fear of FOMO.
• Open homes attendees increasing. New loan product up to 95% loan opening more doors for firsthome buyers. Fourmainstreambanks in conjunction with Kainga Ora.
• Plenty of properties coming to the market for us, getting busy at least a month early. Still very good demand for quality properties and mid range.
• Buyers seem more positive about the market and providing a property is priced right they are transacting.
• Beach Resort town. Shortage of listings going into spring / pre summer buying season is a concern.
• Plenty of buyer activity but difficulties around finance and decision making slowing the process down. Less stock on the market than last 2 months so will Spring spring?
• Home and income properties get more attention from buyers and are popular • Interesting market which is quite evenly poised as long as the vendors are realistic andbuyershavebeeneducatedthat property is unlikely to be "stolen"
• Lots of new listings coming on but very little to almost zero inquiry on many listings. Stock levels are very high and prices are falling as desperation sets in. Every sale is highly conditional and cash buyers (if they exist) are firmly in the driving seat with lots of options and buying power. With new seasons and finer weather hopefully spirits improve and buyers get out there and snap up historically low priced property.
Note the rises above 150% for the likes of Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Hawke’s Bay, Wellington, Nelson etc. The rise for Auckland is just 83%. We can calculate how stocks compare with the average for the past ten years. For the country as whole stocks are still 19% below average. But they are above average in Auckland, which will soonsee areturntorobust population growth,and Wellington which will not.
The rise in stock levels is not being caused by distressed vendors dumping their properties on the market as one might expect if economic conditions were extremely bad, interest rates very high, and household budgets no longer being able to sustain mortgage payments. In seasonally adjusted terms the volume of new listings rose by just 2.2% in August after falling 7.1% in July and 1% in June. There is no upward trend in fresh listings.
The trend in stock numbers is decidedly upward and the following graph shows the change in listing stocks for each region from a year ago.
Listings still rising – sort of
This week realestate.co.nz released their end of August data for listings of residential properties for sale around New Zealand. The main result was that the stock of listings at the end of the month stood 107% higher than a year earlier at 28,600.
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Over the past three months new listings numbers have fallen by 5%. The following graph shows that increases have however been recorded in Waikato, Gisborne, Coromandel, and Central Otago Lakes areas. Another way of looking at the market to gauge how much things are in favour of buyers, is to examine stock levels in terms of how many weeks worth of sales they would cover. That number nationwide now stands at 25. This is down slightly from 27 weeks in July which was the highest total since the end of 2014.
At the regional level the number of weeks worth of stock on hand compared with average is shown in the following graph. It tells us that stock levels are quite generous for buyers in Auckland and Wellington. But things remain tighter thanaverage in Northland, West Coast,and thebunch of places off to the right.
Buyer’s market continues
We can use the data on listings just above to gain insight into where conditions are most in favour of buyers. Or we can simply look at the results of my monthly survey of real estate agents. I ask agents which party in the transaction appears most motivated to get a deal done the buyers or the Ifsellers.thebuyers then we are in a seller’s market one which favour the vendors. But if the agitated party is predominantly the seller, then we are in a buyer’s market which is where we are in sold fashion now. At the NZ-wide level a net 38% of agents say that it is a buyer’s market, shown as the column being below zero in the following graph. A year ago we were solidly in a seller’s market according to a net 58% of responding real estate agents. The degree to which the country is in a buyer’s market has eased this past month from 48% in July and June. But I’m not prepared to call a turning in this situation towards less favouring buyers unless the September survey result shows a further change. Around the country the strongest buyer’s market is in a grouping of five regions Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Taranaki, Manawatu Wanganui, and Wellington. The least friendly markets for buyers are in Northland, Canterbury, and Otago outside of Queenstown Lakes which surprises me a bit and could reflect some low response numbers. Here are some graphs showing the trends for a number of regions. Enjoy. The first for Northland tells us that the region has been more difficult for buyers than the country overall in virtually every month for the past two and a bit years. Auckland has become slightly less in favour of buyers than the country on average recently.
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Bay of Plenty is more in favour of buyers than Sameaverage.for Manawatu Wanganui and Wellington. Canterbury is a buyer’s market, but less than average so. For Otago excluding Queenstown largely Dunedin, the buyer’s market is weaker than average.
Local House Price Momentum
This week I take a look at where things have been going recently for prices for houses on average from Otorohanga down to Kawerau including Taupo, Tauranga, and Rotorua. These indexes are based on a comparison of the price of properties sold with their CVs. Calculation of the average divergence is applied to an index for the whole area to get a good measure of price change not biased by variations from month to month in the types of properties sold. The following table shows how much each location’s average house prices have changed in the past three months, the change in the three months before that, and the change since just before the pandemic.Past 3 Previous Since months 3 months Pre Covid % % % Otorohanga 8.5 4.1 34.0 South Waikato 2.9 5.2 50.7 Waitomo 1.7 5.1 54.3 Taupo 1.5 0.4 49.3 Western Bay of P 5.1 0.9 44.9 Tauranga 5.2 1.7 40.3 Rotorua 4.7 3.8 27.7 Whakatane 3.9 2.1 44.0 Kawerau 13.2 3.9 24.3 NZ 5.3 2.9 29.8 NZ ex. Auckland 6.9 6.3 18.1 With regard to getting a feel for whether a location might be priced well away from trend we can use long term graphs showing average prices compared with the NZ average. Kawerau, Waitomo, and South Waikato prices on average are substantially out of line with long term trends.
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This survey gives insight into the plans of residential property investors. It delivers insight into the impact of policy and interest rate changes.
• There has been a firm lift in requests for property appraisals.
• Investors in shares have pulled back from defensive positioning towards favouring Growth and Aggressive portfolios.
This survey gathers together the views of licensed real estate agents all over New Zealand regarding how they are seeing conditions in the residential property market in their areas at the moment.
• There has been a firm rise in plans to purchase additional assets for one’s portfolio. • Interest in purchasing shares using an app has recovered to a seven month high.
Sponsored by Sharesies
• For the first time since September 2021 more agents report seeing more first home buyers in the market than report they are seeing fewer.
• For the first time since February 2021 agents are on average seeing more people showing up at open homes.
Portfolio Investment Survey
Crockers & Tony Alexander Investor Insight
This survey gives insight into changes in the asset types people are favouring. The key results from our latest survey which yielded 975 responses include the following.
What the surveys tell us
The key results from this month’s survey include the following.
• Intentions of investing in residential property have lifted from 25% in July to 29% this month.
REINZ & Tony Alexander Real Estate Survey
• Buyer concerns about high interest rates, access to finance, and the risk of buying then watching prices fall further remain elevated. But all three concerns have eased this month.
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Mortgages.co.nz & Tony Alexander
This survey gives insight into property demand from investors and first home buyers from the unique position of mortgage brokers. We can also gain insight regarding how banks are changing lending policies towards property buyers. Usually near 70 responses.
• The proportion of investors looking to increase their rents in the next 12 months continues to decline as does the average rent rise sought.
• A firm net 25% of advisers report that banks have become more willing to advance funds.
• Of those planning a purchase, interest in a new build has declined, driven perhaps by concerns about developer ability to deliver amidst many resourcing problems.
Tony’s View Spending Plans Survey
• Investors are still existing, but at the slowest pace since July last year.
• Net plans for purchasing more investment property have fallen away this month.
This month’s survey of the 28,000 subscribers to my weekly Tony’s View publication yielded 1,207 responses. The main result is an improvement in net spending intentions to 18% from a record 27% last month. Whilst better, the result still suggests falling household spending across a range of goods and services over the remainder of this year excluding offshore travel and Improvementsgroceries. in spending intentions were recorded for all categories except motor vehicles where a two year binge has come to an end. A net 9.9% of people plan cutting back spending on investment property and a net 3.8% intend cutting back on buying a house to live in. However, a net 5% intend buying more shares.
• Investor concerns about rising interest rates are abating.
Mortgage Advisors Survey
The main themes to come through from the statistical and anecdotal responses include these.
• The fixed rate term preference is near evenly balanced now between one and two years.
• Consistent with data from other sources, bank willingness to lend is seen by investors to be improving.
• Advisers report that first home buyers are returning to the market.
Nothing I write here or anywhere else in this publication is intended to be personal advice and you should discuss your financing and investment options with a professional. Rates up just a little It’s been another week of volatility in wholesale interest rates around the world. Key causes of the likes of the US ten year bond yield rising to 3.26% from 3.12% last week and 2.8% four weeks ago include a stronger than expected number for the services sector in the United States. Expectations have climbed once again that the Federal Reserve will soon implement another 0.75% rise in its funds rate.
The impact here in recent weeks has been for the markets to lift their expectation for where out cash rate will peak from 4% to just over 4.25%.
Margins on bank fixed rate loans are now well below averages for the past two years and there is only minor scope for any further rate cuts currently following the reductions which were made early in August. As for the coming year, any rate falls will be fairly minor for the fixed rates though they are likely.
If I were a borrower, what would I do? I would have most of my mortgage fixed for just one year and maybe a little bit at two years though having said that in earlier years when I did have a mortgage I never once opted for more than one fixed term. Many do, however.
Also pushing rates higher was the expectation in the United Kingdom of a substantial fiscal package aimed at insulating households and businesses from the worst effects of soaring gas prices caused by Russia cutting flows to Europe.
The markets have also shifted firmly away from pricing an easing of NZ monetary policy before the end of 2023 to just before the end of 2024.
Floating mortgage rates however will go higher because the cost to banks of funding them is closely related to where the official cash rate sits at the time of lending. The cash rate of 3% currently is set to be increased to 4% probably before the end of the year. After that we shall all just have to wait and see what happens with inflation, wages, inflation expectations, and capacity pressures in the economy.
The general view globally has shifted to inflation in the very near future maybe not being as bad as previously thought, but inflation proving somewhat more persistent further out. This view could easily flip right back the other way next week and in fact some of the pessimism eased off a bit last night.
Interest Rates
The one year swap rate at which banks here borrow in the wholesale markets to lend to homeowners at a fixed rate for one year has ended this week little changed from last week’s 4.18%. But this is up from 3.8% four weeks ago. The three year swap rate is little changed near 4.26% from 3.6% four weeks ago.
To see the interest rates currently charged by major lenders go to www.mortgages.co.nz
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These next four graphs show the margins for fixed rate loans. You can use them to get a feel for whether rates offered by banks are at unusually and potentially unsustainably low or high levels and could change even without their borrowing costs altering. Good luck. I can’t predict these margin shifts.
The following graphs show levels of the one, two, three, and five year fixed mortgage rates over the past three decades and are included each week in Tview Premium.
This publication has been provided for general information only. Although every effort has been made to ensure this publication is accurate the contents should not be relied upon or used as a basis for entering into any products described in this publication. To the extent that any information or recommendations in this publication constitute financial advice, they do not take into account any person’s particular financial situation or goals. We strongly recommend readers seek independent legal/financial advice prior to acting in relation to any of the matters discussed in this publication. No person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever which may directly or indirectly result from any advice, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication.
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