SAN FRANCISCO
Q1 2023 MARKET UPDATE
A Note From Colleen...
Dear Friends!
Spring has sprung & I know we are all more excited than ever to welcome the sunshine! With the end of Q1, we are seeing signs of stability in the market. Yes, in some pockets of the city prices are lower than 12 months ago. And yes, interest rates are up (and have been about the same more or less since the fall), but we’re also seeing some life with new buyers entering the marketplace and the number of transactions trending upwards!
Just in the last week, I wrote two offers representing buyers, and all were very competitive receiving multiple offers. My takeaway is that for the best, most desirable homes, buyers are willing to compete. That being said, we just haven’t seen a lot of quality come on the market this year, and by quality, I mean something I’d give an “A” to for location, condition, and floorplan. These A properties are moving quickly & often with multiple offers.
Buyers will step up and get what they want if the home feels compelling. Please read on below for some fascinating just released statistics, and if you have questions about what you’re seeing out there or if I can be a resource for you, please reach out to me!
All the best,
PS - At a more macro level, check out this N e w York Times article with some interesting info on national real estate trends.
TOP PRODUCER, 2009-2022 Ranked in the top 1% of real estate agents in San Francisco c 415.706.1781 f 415.321.7235 e colleen@colleencottersf.com 1801 Fillmore Street San Francisco, CA 94115 DRE 01703078
The Cotter Group’s Thoughts On The Current Market
THE DATA
As we look back on the first quarter, it’s evident that the real estate market has seen a significant decline in most key metrics compared to the unprecedented demand spike that was experienced in late 2020 and early 2021.
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
The first quarter recorded an 18.2 percent reduced median sales price for single-family homes and an 8.5 percent decrease for condominiums compared to the same time last year.
THE PULSE
Despite these figures, the current real estate market sentiment is vastly different from what it was just a couple of months ago. Many buyers are taking advantage of the current landscape and securing deals that haven’t been seen in years.
The market is currently feeling very nuanced & can vary dramatically neighborhood by neighborhood & also by property type. Noe Valley & the northern neighborhoods like Pacific Heights remain in high demand & there is very limited inventory for Buyers. While the current situation offers promise for buyers, fluctuating mortgage rates and limited inventory continue to be a challenge in the market….
OPEN HOUSE ACTIVITY
Open house attendance is up considerably from Q3 & Q4 of 2022. We are seeing new Buyers enter the market.
RATES
Mortgage rates have been trending lower for the last five consecutive weeks and are now hovering around 6.28 percent for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage.
Locally, we see the majority of our clients looking at Jumbo products where Citi Bank & Wells Fargo have grown to be the most competitive rate wise, offering strong relationship pricing which move’s their 30 year fixed at 4/17 in the low 5% range.
Single Family Market SAN
FRANCISCO CITY WIDE
Year-Over-Year Comparison
Q1 2023 Q1 2022 % CHANGE
MEDIAN SALES PRICE DAYS ON MARKET $ PER SQUARE FOOT END OF MONTH INVENTORY WENT INTO CONTRACT PROPERTIES SOLD $1,528,000 15 $957 259 334 349
Q1 2023
WENT INTO CONTRACT PROPERTIES SOLD END OF MONTH INVENTORY # OF PROPERTIES SOLD OVER LIST AVERAGE % OF LIST PRICE RECEIVED 334 349 259 54.2% 105.4% 562 546 455 83.9% 120.65 -40.6% -36.1% -43.1% -35.4% -12.6% Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Single-family. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
Q1 2023 / Top Five Single-Family Home Sales / San Francisco 3450 Washington Street PRESIDIO HEIGHTS / $34,500,000 2863 Green Street COW HOLLOW / $9,995,000 50 St Germain Avenue CLARENDON HEIGHTS / $9,938,000 214 Spruce Street PRESIDIO HEIGHTS / $7,200,000 2627 Steiner Street PACIFIC HEIGHTS / $9,500,000 #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Single-family. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
Median Neighborhood Values / Q1 2023
*Denotes small sample size - use caution when interpreting statistics. Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Single-family. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
Marina/Cow Hollow Russian Hill Pacific/Presidio Heights Lower Pacific/Laurel Heights Cole Valley/Haight Buena Vista/Corona Heights Castro/Duboce Triangle Richmond/Lake Street Noe Valley Ingleside Terrace/Lakeside Diamond Heights Sunset Potrero Hill Bernal Heights/Glen Park Westwood Park/Sunnyside Mission Excelsior/Portola Bayview/Hunters Point Alamo Square/NoPa Hayes Valley AVG SOLD PRICE $6,197,500 $6,025,000 $5,075,000 $4,500,000 $3,450,000 $3,250,000 $3,067,861 $2,409,000 $2,075,000 $2,035,000 $1,987,500 $1,652,500 $1,650,000 $1,590,000 $1,375,000 $1,360,000 $1,175,000 $908,000$ / SQ. FT. $1,721 $1,646 $1,615 $1,571 $1,184 $1,083 $1,220 $959 $1,326 $821 $796 $991 $853 $1,035 $930 $936 $814 $635AVG % OF LIST PRICE RECV’D 94.4% 96.6% 97.6% 95.7% 98.6% 102.0% 104.2% 105.0% 107.3% 135.5% 92.3% 106.3% 99.3% 108.1% 101.9% 102.0% 105.3% 105.7%HOMES SOLD 2* 2* 8* 3* 1* 5* 8* 26* 18* 4* 2* 22* 7* 42* 14* 5* 15* 14* 0 0
NEIGHBORHOOD
Condominium Market SAN FRANCISCO CITY WIDE
Q1 2023 Q1 2022 % CHANGE
MEDIAN SALES PRICE DAYS ON MARKET $ PER SQUARE FOOT END OF MONTH INVENTORY WENT INTO CONTRACT PROPERTIES SOLD $1,100,000 34 $974 624 544 469
WENT INTO CONTRACT PROPERTIES SOLD END OF MONTH INVENTORY # OF PROPERTIES SOLD OVER LIST AVERAGE % OF LIST PRICE RECEIVED 544 469 624 31.6% 99.5% 938 821 1,113 54.5% 105.2% -42.0% -42.9% -43.9% -41.9% -5.4% Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Condos/TIC/Co-Ops. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
Q1 2023
Year-Over-Year Comparison
Q1
2023 / Top Five Condominium Sales / San Francisco
1958 Vallejo Street #11 PACIFIC HEIGHTS / $8,400,000
301 Mission Street #54B YERBA BUENA / $7,750,000
2121 Webster St. #605 PACIFIC HEIGHTS / $6,500,000
2121 Webster St. #507 PACIFIC HEIGHTS / $4,980,000
1515 Union St. #6A COW HOLLOW / $6,000,000
#1 #2 #3
Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Condos/TIC/Co-Ops. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
#4 #5
Median Neighborhood Values / Q1 2023
NEIGHBORHOOD
Marina/Cow Hollow
Alamo Square/NOPA
Castro/Duboce Triangle
Pacific/Presidio Heights
Buena Vista/Corona Heights
Noe Valley
Cole Valley/Haight
Russian Hill
Lower Pacific/Laurel Heights
Hayes Valley
South Beach/Yerba Buena
Richmond/Lake St
North Beach/Fisherman’s Wharf
Mission Bay
Mission Dolores
Mission
Sources: SFAR MLS & BrokerMetrics; Property types covered: Condos/TIC/Co-Ops. Only property data posted on the MLS is covered. All information is deemed reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy. All data is subject to errors, omissions, revisions, and is not warranted. ©2023 Vanguard Properties. All rights reserved. Equal Housing Opportunity. DRE No. 01486075
Dogpatch
Park
Nob Hill* Bernal Heights/Glen
Potrero Hill Telegraph Hill Diamond Heights Sunset SOMA Bayview/Hunters Point AVG SOLD PRICE $1,925,000 $1,550,000 $1,537,500 $1,500,000 $1,475,000 $1,362,500 $1,350,000 $1,250,000 $1,250,000 $1,210,000 $1,184,000 $1,125,000 $1,088,000 $1,081,000 $1,060,000 $1,035,000 $1,030,000 $947,500 $925,000 $919,500 $916,250 $915,000 $841,500 $747,000 $620,000 $ / SQ. FT. $1,211 $925 $1,133 $1,050 $1,059 $1,148 $952 $1,158 $979 $991 $1,072 $947 $931 $1,028 $970 $1,035 $832 $866 $830 $1,034 $1,184 $795 $1,038 $764 $624 AVG % OF LIST PRICE RECV’D 99.1% 101.0% 101.3% 101.1% 99.5% 102.1% 101.1% 98.9% 105.9% 100.9% 94.9% 100.4% 97.5% 99.0% 99.6% 99.3% 97.2% 102.0% 99.9% 101.6% 100.0% 98.3% 103.5% 97.2% 103.7% HOMES SOLD 13* 23* 16* 32* 9* 18* 12* 18* 13* 15* 51 22* 9* 18* 6* 13* 16* 9* 28* 8* 6* 4* 6* 20* 5*
Current Listings, In-Contract & Recently Sold Properties
219 Brannan St. #18D
SOUTH BEACH / $3,245,000
• Top Floor Penthouse at the Brannan
• 3 Bedrooms, 3 Bathrooms
• Floor to Ceiling Windows with Unobstructed Views of the Bay Bridge & CItyscape
• Walk-Out Terrace
• Herringbone Wood Floors Throughout
• 2-Car Parking
FOR SALE BrannanPenthouseLiving.com
99 Rausch Street
SOMA / $625,000
• 1 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom
• Private South Facing Patio
• South Facing Floor to Ceiling Windows Flooded with Natural Light
• Quiet Tree-Lined Street
• Full Amenity Building with a Doorman, Gym, and Rooftop Deck
FOR SALE
99Rausch202.com
COMING SOON
COW HOLLOW / $2,595,000
• Vacant 3 Unit Building
• 2 Full Floor Flats
• 1-Bedroom Garden Unit
• Top Floor Flat & Garden Unit Are Vacant
1756Union.com
1756-1758 Union Street
COMING SOON
2762 Union Street
COW HOLLOW / INQUIRE FOR PRICING
• 2 Bedroom
• 1.5 Bathrooms
• Condo Overlooks A Luxurious Sunny Garden
950 Corbett Avenue, Unit 2
SAN FRANCISCO / $1,650,000
• 3 Bedrooms + Den
• 2 Bathrooms
• 3 Fireplaces / Juliet Balconies / Brazillian Teak Hardwood Floors
• 1-Car Parking Equipped With EV Charging
• Boutique Elevator Building With Direct Unit Access
950CorbettUnit2.com
IN CONTRACT
Webster St
FRANCISCO
SOLD
JUST SOLD
2019
BUYER REPRESENTED SAN
/
$4,200,000
JUST SOLD
171 San Marcos Avenue
BUYER REPRESENTED FOREST HILL / SOLD $3,800,000
JUST SOLD
SELLER REPRESENTED
SAN FRANCISCO / SOLD $1,600,000
2295 Vallejo St. #310
COLLEEN COTTER 415.706.1781 colleen@colleencottersf.com BRE Lic. #01703078 ZOE FRANKEL 415.235.9422 zoefrankel@vanguardsf.com DRE Lic. #02134477 MARGARET O’DRISCOLL 415.846.3062 margaret@vanguardsf.com BRE Lic. #01131561 Contact colleencottersf.com 1801 Filmore Street | San Francisco, CA 94115