2.2 Road map

plan preparation (e.g. for identifying shelters and evacuation points). Disaster risk reduction is included in school curricula and in university courses which also contributes to the country’s preparedness. In terms of response, projects in pilot sites have developed warnings that are linked, in terms of their severity, to specific response actions. Some pilot sites also conduct field exercises to improve the community’s ability to respond to actions. However, these initiatives have not been mainstreamed to the whole country. Moreover, DRM is not mainstreamed in the education sector at full scale, program in some elementary, secondary and tertiary school exists but the process need to be systematized. Warnings themselves are not always understood by the population or are not disseminated widely enough (with the exception of warnings sent through radio and television), both of which limit the ability of many stakeholders to react.

The analysis of the existing system in Ethiopia highlights that the country has developed a clear identification of roles and responsibilities of different institutions and has established policies mandating risk assessment. There is a general understanding of hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities at the country level. Archives of historical data related to floods and droughts, as well as for other hazards, are currently in the process of being incorporated into risk maps.

2.2.1 Recommendations

Ethiopia has a solid basis from the organizational and institutional point of view. There have been significant developments of DRR policies in the last few decades and an evolution of institutional mandates towards an integrated DRM strategy. Nevertheless, all of the four components of the EWS require some improvement in order to reach the desired reference level. DRR stakeholders would greatly benefit if flood/drought hazard and risk mapping was completed for the whole territory and down to the local level in order to identify threats, potential consequences and cascading effects of hazard events. Risk information should be consolidated to support preparedness plans, currently only available in some pilot sites. The institution currently responsible for this task, the National Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) can provide scientific and technical support to the risk assessment process and should mobilise further active involvement of other key stakeholders , including the Regional Disaster Risk Management Commissions, Woreda and Zonal Commission, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity, National Meteorological Agency, and academia. To build on the many advances, the government should aim to improve the monitoring and forecasting service, including through an increase of automated measurement stations (e.g. precipitation, discharge) and the advancement in the technological and scientific tools in support of the monitoring and forecasting system. Ethiopia should also aim to improve its operational capacity with a 365/24/7 service implementing fail-safe systems and standardized operational procedures for issuing warnings.

This responsibility should fall once again on the NDRMC, in collaboration with the National Meteorological Agency and the ministry of Water Irrigation and Electricity. Under the coordination role of NDRMC, dissemination and communication of warnings should be improved in order to reach the population with timely, impact-based messages clear enough to trigger reactions. Improvements are particularly needed in the means used for communication and in the connection between messages, the expected scenario and the related action. Moreover, although DRR is included in school and university curricula and awareness campaigns are conducted in pilot sites, preparedness plans are not systematically and at full scale in place, and only contingency plans exist. NDRMC should coordinate the development of preparedness plans, SoPs and education campaigns especially for fast-developing hazards in collaboration with the other institutions involved (the Federal Disaster Risk Management Commissions, Ministry of Water, Irrigation and Electricity, National Meteorological Agency, Basin Development Authority, Woreda and Zonal Commission, Ministry of Agriculture).

2.2.2 Priorities The present road map is composed of several priorities of intervention that have been identified considering Ethiopia’s national context and in consultation with the national stakeholders. The priorities listed below are not in order of importance.

Priority Priority Description 1) Consolidate disaster risk knowledge

Disaster risk knowledge is of concern to multitudes of national organizations, civil societies and the general public. Except for NDRMC, which is the lead body mandated to work on DRM, and its parallel organizations at lower administrative levels, locally sourced data and information about disaster risk is sparse and not broadly available. Hence, entities that can potentially make use of risk data and risk information, including decision-makers and practitioners, do not have such data and information available to them. Given that systematically organized data and information about disaster risk is foundational to developing an effective Early Warning System, it is important to consolidate the national disaster risk data and information in a meaningful way.

The Woreda Disaster Risk Profiles being developed by NDRMC serve as a solid base upon which to build a national disaster data and information platform. It not only provides a product which profiles the major disaster risk that a woreda faces, but also indicates the hazards, vulnerabilities and exposure elements. A fully developed network of research of academic centres focusing on DRM should be fostered and the mechanism for constant and continuous exchange of such centres with the institutions involved in DRM should be established.

The woreda disaster risk profiles represent a wealth of information for DRM. The involvement of sectoral ministries to improve the type and quantity of data collection and its subsequent analysis is important to increase the utility of gathered data and extracted information. The engagement of other public entities in the WDRP data collection can be considered to ensure rapid and cost-effective effort; in-house data collection efforts of sectoral ministries and other agencies can be harmonized with the WDRP so as to reduce redundancy. Reducing the number of indicators could improve usability as well as maintenance of the risk profiles in future. The revision of indicators could reflect the experience gathered through the application of the risk profiles in Disaster Mitigation Plans and Emergency plans. The indicators could further be rebalanced to cover the different sectors and taking into account different possible applications. Consistency should be maintained to ensure cross comparability with the already developed risk profiles. Revision of the methodology should also include improvement of the quantitative aspect of the risk profiles –this would make possible the use of the risk profiles for cost benefit analysis.

Digital platforms offer a rapid, low error and cost-effective means of WDRP data collection and storage. IT tools should be developed for a better data collection/update, data storage and analysis of the risk profiles.Moreover, based on the DRM Policy mainstreaming guideline, Lead Agencies should use WDRP as a base for DRR plans.

A fully operational woreda-net system for exchanging risk information from national and regional authorities to woreda DRM structures is on way and should be completed as soon as feasible.

Supplemental and secondary data from other sources, including freely available satellite data can be incorporated to enrich WDRP. Furthermore, web based system and portals should be developed for creating access to all DRR implementors.

Proposed Actions

2) Improve disaster risk monitoring and forecasting systems

The large majority of disasters that strike Ethiopia are climate induced. Hence, it is critical that Ethiopia has a robust weather forecasting system in place. Ethiopia already has a long tradition and experience in weather observation, monitoring and forecasting. There is also an ongoing and solid cooperation with Regional Climate Services, and new initiatives are being implemented in the framework of the Global Framework for Climate Services. Real-time monitoring systems for both meteorological and hydrological conditions need to be strengthened by automating existing stations and installing new automated stations. Real-time transmission of data is also key for flood monitoring. The combination of open source hardware and software allows for increased flexibility. Existing stations have low spatial coverage and the new stations should improve the quality and timeliness of information. The responsibility of the monitoring network resides with NMA; NDRMC will strengthen the institutional relation to NMA in this respect.

Meteorological and hydrological models need to be downscaled in order to provide more detailed information on target populations. The tools for the delivery of user-specific weather and climate information also need to be improved.

Existing global and regional datasets, and real-time monitoring stations as well as satellite information need to be integrated. Global and regional datasets are of crucial importance for complementing existing national information in many countries in Africa.

Improving systematic and real-time data and information sharing among different institutions. Access to risk information is critical before and during an emergency. Modern technologies offer practical solutions for improving data exchange. The MyDewetra platform is a good solution for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations (see also Priority 5). The technological tool needs to be complemented by a data exchange procedure among different organizations and allow for the use of all available information present at the national, as well as the international level. Furthermore, the platform should be tested and contextualized for the Ethiopian environment with local datasets and procedures. Furthermore, the system should be decentralized and able to manage data and information from local authorities. The system should be connected with existing systems in place at NDRMC and line-ministries; this will eventually increases the coordination of different on-going efforts on the hydro meteorological early warning systems, avoiding duplication.

3) Further develop communicati on and dissemination

The dissemination and communication of warnings is crucial before and during emergencies. Warning communication is an essential link between monitoring and response capability. Early warnings need to contain clear actionable messages that reach at risk populations, are understood by them, and that can therefore enable them to act to reduce the impact of a disaster. Developing a uniform integrated communication system for alerting the population, the communication system needs to include standard messages for the different predicted or monitored risk scenarios and should clearly target different categories of the population with different needs during emergencies. Warnings should use simple colour thresholds and be developed with important coordination among Ethiopian authorities. Attention must be given to develop a communication system able to translate complex technical and scientific information into targeted messages so as to make sure that the information is understood by the entire population. Civil societies and organizations (school, youth associations, etc), can contribute to improving communication and complement information with the local knowledge. The improvement of the warning communication system should also include the elaboration of actions to verify that warnings have been received.

Adopting multiple channels of communication including national, local and indigenous platforms. There are many available technologies that can serve as a reliable communication channel, however in community and national EWS across the globe, no-to-low technology has also provided excellent results in transmitting messages. An effective warning dissemination should be based on multiple channels, from SMS, emails and broadcast to no-to-low technologies (Flags, boards, whistles and megaphones) and can be different for different receptors, i.e. organizations, practitioners, civil societies or population. Particularly interesting for Ethiopia is the broadcasting to mobile-phones of micro-targeted alerts (see for example the IT-Alert system developed in Italy). In the case of Ethiopia, the multi-lingual aspect is also a challenge to be faced in order to maximise the effectiveness and comprehension of warning messages. In addition to the multiple channels identified above (i.e. SMS, Broadcast, emails, etc), a web-based portal for risk communication should be established at the national level. The portal should convey information on risk to populations, as well as warnings, and should host organised education material on the subject that can be used to increase the level of preparedness of the population at all levels. The portal should be connected to existing systems such as the Woreda Risk Information system, Woredanet and MyDewetra. This effort should complement and support the current strong local experience in using indigenous knowledge for disseminating information and will also support the decentralization of early warning as per the DRM policy.

4) Improve preparedness and response capacity

Communities need to be ready to respond when risk becomes a reality. in order to reduce the impacts of a disaster, the response action should be triggered by a warning and not by the disaster itself. Response capability typically involves actions that prepare for or reduce the impact of a hazard or disaster. A community is deemed “response capable” when it knows, has practiced and has the means to engage in appropriate response actions. The National Disaster Risk Management Commission should improve preparedness and response plans so as to encompass pre, during and post disaster phases, from prevention to recovery and rehabilitation. The plans should be context specific and different for high and low land. Specifically, the emergency plans should start from the information collected and produced by the WDRP, by following the already prepared guidelines on the Emergency Plan preparation.

Early Warnings should be connected to Woreda Disaster Risk Profiles and target the hazards that are relevant for the specific woredas.

Awareness creation is fundamental for effectively responding and acting on warnings. This should be built by incorporating DRM within school curricula at an early stage. A scientific method could maximise outcomes. A baseline of citizen awareness should be prepared by organizing a survey. Specific lessons learned mechanisms should be fostered at the community, regional and national level. The mechanism should envisage the gathering of the relevant stakeholders after each event and analysis of the strength and challenges encountered in the emergency management. Within this context a coordinated use of social media can be organized to consolidate the awareness creation before and when the event is imminent.

Disaster Risk Management should be included in education at all levels and should also address Early Warning Systems and improve awareness of the population. In order to do that curricula that include EWS and DRM should be developed at every level of education. In order to improve risk perception and awareness a DRM campaign should be designed and implemented.

A free call centre should be created for the population so that it represents a reference for the risk information in Ethiopia and serves as a data clearing house.

The development of Preparedness and Emergency plans for the whole country based on risk information to define mitigation strategies (e.g. evacuation), different possible severity scenarios and severity of the warning. The plan should also include the development of rehabilitation guidelines. Furthermore, the plan should include a set of prevention and mitigation actions linked with early warning that should be based on evidence. Preparedness plan should include specific measure for food reserve and distribution.

5) Adopt an integrated IT system over multiple levels for Improving availability and accessibility to risk information and Early Warning system in general

Rapid access to reliable real-time information is fundamental for the decision making process before and during an emergency. A shared web-GIS platform with an accessible database would enable different user profiles (forecasters, disaster managers, decision makers) to access information in real-time. The MyDewetra Platform used in the pilot, could be a starting base for this and should be integrated with other initiatives under the coordination of NDRMC.

Modern technologies offer practical solutions for improving data exchange, fostering systematic and real-time data and information sharing among different institutions. Under this lens, each institution at the regional, national or provincial level should ideally have access to a shared web-GIS platform, accessible according to the organisations’ role and responsibilities within the institutional framework. Institutions should be given the possibility to upload and share up-to-date information on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. Most of the local data and information collected within the woreda risk profile, should also be used in real-time to assess the impact of imminent events. Regional climate centres within the REC’s could also share relevant data about monitoring and outlook through this same platform. The pilot demonstration showed the added value of using a web-GIS platform for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations and across different scales (regional, national, provincial level). Taylor myDewetra platform to Ethiopian Early Warning Model and integrate to existing systems in place at NDRMC (e.g. LEAP, Geonetcast, WDRP, CATS, EW, LIU, Disaster Inventory, SPIF). The platform should be translated in Amharic and be user friendly.

Capacity building should encompass several tasks: Provision of ICT equipment at all levels; Provide training at every level; Provide financial assistance for administrations; Provide continuous technical assistance.

Improvement of data sharing protocols and a legal framework to ensure data exchange as well as a framework for coordination, including to strengthen transboundary risk management.

The preparedness and emergency plans should be regularly tested through exercises based on prefigured risk scenarios. The drill should test the effectiveness of warnings, the understating of the messages communicated by the authorities, and the actions to be implemented for mitigating the impacts to different sectors. Drills should also address the efficiencies of equipment, logistic capacity and its redundancy.