4.2 Road map

4.1.3 Monitoring and forecasting

Zambia has a hydrometeorological monitoring and forecasting network in place that includes automatic stations, but the coverage remains low (126 stations; 86 automatic stations). Some initiatives to expand the network are ongoing, which will greatly improve forecasting abilities and the accuracy of warnings. Currently, investments are needed in staff training and technical equipment. On the institutional front, roles and procedures are established, but the processes of data exchange and coordination between institutions are not formalized or more specifically automatic. While hydrometeorological data are computed with up-to-date technologies and models, hydrological forecasting is a fast evolving domain which requires attention and development.

4.1.4 Communication and dissemination

Many different types of media are used in Zambia’s communication and dissemination of warning. The latter are very detailed for droughts. Early warnings for floods are not in place. There are presently no set mechanisms to verify whether warnings have reached the target population and work is required to identify ways of ensuring the greatest coverage. DMMU acts as a coordinator, but there are no standard operating procedures for the uniform codification of warnings, nor for the sharing of information from the national to the local level.

4.1.5 Preparedness and response

Zambia has implemented disaster risk reduction education programmes from primary school to universities, which helps raise the country’s preparedness level. Nevertheless, Zambia does not have preparedness plans for the whole country, only in select pilot sites. Regrettably, the latter do not always sufficiently account for the needs of people with different vulnerabilities, and not regular exercises nor updates are undertaken to keep the population prepared for their efficient execution in case of a disaster. In terms of response, designated early actions correspond to different severities of warning, but only for drought. Sufficient funding is not set aside to support rapid response. 4.2 Road map

The analysis of the existing system in Zambia highlights that stakeholder roles are well established and ongoing initiatives to respond to natural hazards, especially those aimed at improving disaster risk knowledge and the monitoring network are strong. However, many initiatives are limited to pilot sites. Monitoring and warning systems for drought are in place and the population responds based on the different severities indicated.

4.2.1 Recommendations

Zambia has developed a clear identification of roles and responsibilities of different institutions and has established policies mandating risk assessment. Archives of historical data related to flood and droughts are currently undergoing a reorganization in order to incorporate them into risk maps.

The country should complete flood/drought hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping at local scale for the whole territory to identify threats and potential consequences and to consolidate risk information to support preparedness plans. The institutions currently responsible of this task according to the legislative review should be the DMMU in the role of a coordinator, the National Disaster Management Council (NDMC), the National Disaster Management Technical Committee (NDMTC), the respective Ministries of Health, of Agriculture, of Energy and Water development, of Community Development, and the Zambia Vulnerability Assessment Commission (ZVAC). The country should also complete the set-up of an adequate monitoring and forecasting service including by increasing the number of automated measurement stations (e.g. precipitation, discharge), further training the personnel, setting-up of warning centres to be operational 24/7, of fail-safe systems and of standardized procedures for issuing warnings. The responsibility for these actions should be with the Zambia Meteorological Department (ZMD) and Zambia Water Resources Management Authority (WARMA), in coordination with DMMU and in collaboration with the National Disaster Management Technical Committee (NDMTC). Dissemination and communication of warnings should be improved in order to be able to reach the population with impact-based messages clear enough to trigger reactions. This objective should be achieved under the coordination of the DMMU, but with the support of Provincial and District Disaster Management Committees (PDMC, DDMC), Satellite Disaster Management Committees (SDMC), ZMD and Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA). A framework for preparedness and response, incorporating Early Warning should be reinforced as it is currently in its early stages with the exception of a few rural pilot sites. The actors involved are the Ministry of Defence, Provincial and District Disaster Management Committee (DDMC, PDMC). The consolidation of risk information and the forecasting system will build a new baseline for the construction of preparedness plans.

4.2.2 Priorities

The present road map is composed of several priorities of intervention that have been identified considering Zambia’s national context. The priorities listed below are not in order of importance.

Priority 1) Strengthen institutional and legal framework on EWS (to improve all 4 components)

2) Strengthen risk knowledge Priority Description

An effective Early Warning and Action system needs to be based on a solid institutional framework with a clear distribution of roles and responsibilities among organizations and agencies. DMMU has a strong coordination mandate which it executes effectively through the national and sub-national committees, composed of multitudes of stakeholders from the national and sub-national levels, international organizations and civil societies. This first priority aims to support the continued development of regulations (either existing or new) that assign clear roles and responsibilities to the different institutions involved in the overall system and develop operational procedures for the preparation of multi-hazard warnings, dissemination and related actions at all administrative levels. Starting from the National Disaster Management Policy, 2015, develop regulations for assigning roles and responsibilities to national and local authorities as well as for different levels of warnings and authorities responsible for action implementation. Integrate Early Warning System into national and local emergency/contingency planning.

Disaster risk knowledge is of concern to multitudes of national organizations, civil societies and the general public. There is a wealth of information on risk that is currently available but not systematically organized by national authorities. Hence, practitioners and the general public often have limited accessibility to the diverse knowledge products. The understanding of risk is foundational to any Early Warning System. Awareness should be high among organizations and individuals which are part of the EWS. DMMU is developing an Open Risk Data Hub that can improve the accessibility to risk knowledge at the national level. The quantitative disaster risk profile developed in 2019 by DMMU, UNDRR, and the CIMA Research Foundation is a solid basis of scientific information for flood and drought risk. Organize existing risk knowledge and information in a single national database that can serve as a risk information clearing house and can be used by multiple stakeholders to inform decision making and actions across the entire disaster risk management cycle. The above would aim to support cross sectoral synergies and provide information for resilience dividends. Mainstream existing risk knowledge at national and sub-national level for organizations and also for individuals. Mainstreaming should aim at improving accessibility to risk information for multiple stakeholders from national and sub-national organizations to practitioners. Develop new risk knowledge (risk assessment and mapping). The quantitative 2019 disaster risk profile for floods and droughts is a solid base, however, it does not cover other key hazards for Zambia and should be downscaled at local level. Furthermore, there is a need to develop risk scenarios at local and national scale to inform emergency planning which should fully integrate Early Warnings and Action

Proposed Actions

3) Improve monitoring and forecasting system

The Zambia Meteorological Department has a long tradition and experience in weather observation, monitoring and forecasting. There is also good cooperation with Regional Climate Services and new initiatives are being implemented with the support of the European Union and in the framework of the Global Frameworks for Climate Services—Africa. Zambia Water Resources Management Authority holds the responsibility for water resource management, but the capacity for monitoring and forecasting the hydrological conditions needs strengthening. Strengthen the real-time monitoring systems for both meteorological and hydrological conditions. This should be done by fostering automatization of existing stations and installation of new stations. Real-time transmission of data is key for flood monitoring. Open hardware stations can be a valid solution for disaster management.

Develop operational hydrological modelling. Operational hydrology is a younger discipline than operational meteorology and climatology and it is less developed. WARMA has established a cooperation with ECMWF to use GLOFAS in Zambia. Hydrological modelling needs to be developed for all main rivers in Zambia and will inform both flood and drought forecasts. There is also a need to develop a flash flood forecasting system. The responsibility for flash floods is with the Zambia Meteorological Department. Integrate existing global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations. Global and regional datasets have a crucial importance for complementing existing automatic stations in Zambia. Integrate remote sensing datasets. Earth observation can partially remedy the lack of in situ data. Satellite technology offers different accessible information and tools that can be used for meteorological, hydrological, and drought monitoring and forecasting. Develop capacities for impact-based Early Warnings. An impact-based forecast and warning approach translates meteorological and hydrological hazards into sector- and location-specific impacts, thus facilitating the identification of mitigation actions to reduce such impacts. Impact-based forecasts must be a joint work of the Zambia Meteorology Department, WARMA and DMMU. Improve systematic and real-time data and information sharing among different institutions. Access to risk information is critical before and during emergencies. Modern technologies offer practical solutions to improve data exchange. A pilot demonstration of Zambia’s MyDewetra platform showed the added value of using a open source web-GIS platform to share and change risk information among different organizations (see also Priority 6). The technological tool needs to be complemented with a data exchange procedure agreed by the different organizations.

4) Further develop communication and dissemination

5) Improve Preparedness and response capacity

The dissemination and communication of warnings is crucial before and during emergencies. Warning communication is an essential link between monitoring and response capability. Early warnings need to contain clear actionable messages that reach the populations at risk, are understood by them, and can therefore enable them to act to reduce the impact of a disaster. Develop a uniform integrated communication system for alerting the population (i.e. Common Alerting Protocol and colour code for alert). The communication system should include standard messages for the different predicted or monitored risk scenarios and it should clearly identify “who communicates what” . Extreme attention should be given to develop a communication system able to translate a complex technical and scientific message in a simple language so as to ensure that the information, including that relates to self protection actions, is understood by the entire targeted population. Civil society organisations and national or local organizations (school, youth associations, etc.) can effectively contribute to improving communication by complementing local knowledge. Adopt multiple channels of communication. There are many available technologies that can serve as reliable communication channels. In community-based and national EWS across the globe, no-to-low technology has also provided excellent results for transmitting messages. An effective warning dissemination should be based on multiple channels, from SMS to email, and broadcast to no-to-low technologies (flags, boards, whistles and megaphones) and be adapted to different receptors, i.e. organizations, practitioners, civil societies or the population at risk.

Communities need to be ready to respond in case risk becomes a adverse reality. In order to reduce negative impacts, the response action should be triggered by a warning and not by the disaster itself. Response capability typically involves actions that prepare for or reduce the impact of a hazard or a disaster. A community is deemed “response capable” when it knows, has practiced and has the means to engage in appropriate response actions. LInk community-based emergency planning to the national warning. DMMU should seek to provide guidelines for the implementation of emergency plans at the local level. Emergency plans should be designed by taking into account specific local hazard, exposure and vulnerability, ideally through a participatory approach and integrate Early Warning and Action systems for both slow and sudden disasters (flood, flash floods, droughts etc.)

Practice and exercise (e.g. multiscale field/tabletop exercises). Regular exercises and drills should be planned to test the response capacity of the institutions and the population. The drill should test the effectiveness of warnings, the understating of the messages communicated by the authorities, and the actions to be implemented for mitigating the impacts to different sectors. Public awareness campaigns should be carried out to inform civil society organisations and populations about potential impacts, behaviours, and actions to be taken in the case of warnings. The public awareness campaign should be developed in partnership with civil society organisations and with representatives of citizen/stakeholder groups.

6) Adopt an integrated IT system over multiple levels for improving availability and accessibility to risk information and Early Warning system

Rapid access to reliable real-time information is fundamental for the decision making process before and during an emergency. A shared web-GIS platform, with a database accessible to different user profiles (forecasters, disaster managers, decision makers) would enable them to access relevant information in real-time. The MyDewetra platform could be a starting point and could be integrated with the Open Risk Data Hub and platform being developed at DMMU. Modern technologies offer practical solutions for improving the data exchange, fostering systematic and real-time data and information sharing among different institutions. Reflecting their role and responsibilities within the institutional framework for preparedness, each institution at the regional, national or provincial level should ideally have access to a jointly populated and shared web-GIS platform. Institutions should be given the possibility to upload and share updated information on hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacity. Most of the local data and information used in Zambia’s 2019 quantitative disaster risk profile for floods and drought (data pertaining to exposure, vulnerability, or hazard maps, etc.) may also be used in real-time to assess the impact of imminent events. Regional climate centres within the Regional Economic Community should also contribute to a national data platform and share relevant monitoring and outlook data. The MyDewetra pilot demonstration showed the added value of using a open source web-GIS platform for sharing and exchanging risk information among different organizations and across different scales (regional, national, provincial level). Design and implement regulations to ensure data accessibility and data sharing. Standard Operational Protocols should be implemented among all contributing organizations, in order to ensure that data is effectively managed and used by organisations.

Integrate risk information and data in a shared platform. Risk information should be incorporated in the shared platform and readily available to be used for the construction of real-time impact scenarios. Hazard, exposure and vulnerability layers should be maintained and updated by different responsible institutions.

Integrate records of past events into the platform. The national disaster loss databases (e.g. DesInventar) should be connected to the platform.

Integrate all analysis tools for monitoring and forecasting into the platform, including global and regional datasets and real-time monitoring stations, forecasting models and remote sensing dataset.

Prepare warning messages (bulletins). Integrated into the platform, specific technological tools should facilitate the preparation and dissemination of warning messages.