Readiness for Entering Kindergarten

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Readiness for Entering Kindergarten: The Impact on Future Academic Achievement Lynn D. Fielding, Jay Maidment, and Christian N. K. Anderson

Overview: This paper1 describes how children’s entering kindergarten scores in reading and math predict their subsequent achievement each year with surprising accuracy through Grade 5 but also, though less accurately, through Grade 8. Part I summarizes our 13 major conclusions and observations in a 6 pages tightly written format shaped for a fairly nontechnical readership but based on some statistical correlations and technical explanations. If it is too technical, skip to Part II which covers the same points in a longer but more lay‐person/parent‐friendly descriptions with graphs showing the relationship of children’s scores when they enter kindergarten compared to the odds of where they will be five years later. Part III assumes statistical expertise in its supporting tables, graphs, and extended descriptions of the mathematical models. Appendices A‐D provide supplementary data.

PART I DATASET INFORMATION: The Northwest Evaluation Association (NWEA) located in Portland, Oregon,2 has, since 1976, tested scores of millions of elementary school children in the United States. In 2015 it provided us with test results for five cohorts of students (about 380,000), beginning with students who started kindergarten in the fall of 2006 and were tracked through the fall of 2010, and ending with students who began in the fall of 2010, tracked through spring 2015.3 This paper uses two groups of students. The reading set (n=61,691) consists of students for whom 12 consecutive reading scores from fall‐K to spring‐Grade 5 are available in addition to these same students’ math scores beginning and end of school year from fall kindergarten 1

This paper is an amalgamation of the work product of Lynn Fielding, Jay Maidment, and Christian Anderson from March 2015 to the present. Jay Maidment prepared a 26‐page stand‐alone work dated February 16, 2017, describing the development of a model predicting reading test scores in the fall of Grade 5 from kindergarten fall scores. The Maidment work describes the chronological process of the model’s development, its final state, and its mathematical nuances in greater detail than this paper. 2 See Appendix A for an extended description of NWEA. 3 See Appendix B for an extended description of this dataset, including some science scores.

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Readiness for Entering Kindergarten by childrensreadingfoundation - Issuu