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EconomicGrowthandEmploymentin Vietnam

Vietnamhasenjoyedsignificanteconomicsuccesssincetheimplementationofits doimoi reforms,includingrapidgrowthinGDP,exportsandforeignanddomesticinvestment,andasheddingofpoorlyperformingstate-ownedenterprises. Despitethis,however,theeconomicsituationformanyordinarypeoplein Vietnamisfragile,withincomeonlyjustabovethepovertyline,andhighunemployment,especiallyamongtheyoung.Inaddition,inflationishigh,andthe state-ownedsectorisstilllarge,muchofitstillperformingbadly.Thisbook providesacomprehensiveoverviewofthecurrenteconomicsituationinVietnam. Itoutlinesthestateoftheeconomy,payingspecialattentiontoemployment; discussesgovernmentpoliciesincludingontradeandintegrationwiththeglobal economy;andconcludesbyassessingthekeychallengesfacingVietnam’seconomygoingforward.

DavidLim isProfessorEmeritusofEconomicsatGriffithUniversityand PresidentoftheTechnologicalandHigherEducationInstituteoftheVocational TrainingCouncilofHongKong.

RoutledgeStudiesintheGrowthEconomiesofAsia

1. TheChangingCapitalMarkets ofEastAsia

EditedbyKyCao

2. FinancialReforminChina

EditedbyOnKitTam

3. WomenandIndustrialization inAsia

EditedbySusanHorton

4. Japan’sTradePolicy Actionorreaction? YumikoMikanagi

5. TheJapaneseElectionSystem Threeanalyticalperspectives JunichiroWada

6. TheEconomicsofthe Latecomers

Catching-up,technologytransfer andinstitutionsinGermany, JapanandSouthKorea Jang-SupShin

7. IndustrializationinMalaysia Importsubstitutionandinfant industryperformance RokiahAlavi

8. EconomicDevelopmentin Twentieth-CenturyEastAsia Theinternationalcontext

EditedbyAikoIkeo

9. ThePoliticsofEconomic DevelopmentinIndonesia Contendingperspectives

EditedbyIanChalmersandVedi R.Hadiz

10. StudiesintheEconomic HistoryofthePacificRim

EditedbySallyM.Miller,A.J.H. LathamandDennisO.Flynn

11. WorkersandtheStateinNew OrderIndonesia VediR.Hadiz

12. TheJapaneseForeign ExchangeMarket BeateReszat

13. ExchangeRatePoliciesin EmergingAsianCountries

EditedbyStefanCollignon,Jean Pisani-FerryandYungChul Park

14. ChineseFirmsandTechnology intheReformEra YizhengShi

15. JapaneseViewsonEconomic Development

Diversepathstothemarket

KenichiOhnoandIzumiOhno

16. TechnologicalCapabilitiesand ExportSuccessinAsia

EditedbyDieterErnst,Tom GaniatsosandLynnMytelka

17. TradeandInvestmentinChina TheEuropeanexperience

EditedbyRogerStrange,Jim SlaterandLiminWang

18. TechnologyandInnovationin Japan

Policyandmanagementforthe 21stcentury

EditedbyMartinHemmertand ChristianOberländer

19. TradePolicyIssuesinAsian Development Prema-chandraAthukorala

20. EconomicIntegrationinthe AsiaPacificRegion IppeiYamazawa

21. Japan’sWarEconomy

EditedbyErichPauer

22. IndustrialTechnology DevelopmentinMalaysia Industryandfirmstudies

EditedbyJomoK.S.,Greg FelkerandRajahRasiah

23. Technology,Competitiveness andtheState

Malaysia’sindustrialtechnology policies

EditedbyJomoK.S.andGreg Felker

24. CorporatismandKorean Capitalism

EditedbyDennisL.McNamara

25. JapaneseScience SamuelColeman

26. CapitalandLabourinJapan Thefunctionsoftwofactor markets

ToshiakiTachibanakiand AtsuhiroTaki

27. AsiaPacificDynamism 1550–2000

EditedbyA.J.H.Lathamand HeitaKawakatsu

28. ThePoliticalEconomyof DevelopmentandEnvironment inKorea

Jae-YongChungandRichardJ Kirkby

29. JapaneseEconomicsand Economistssince1945

EditedbyAikoIkeo

30. China’sEntryintotheWorld TradeOrganisation

EditedbyPeterDrysdaleand LigangSong

31. HongKongasanInternational FinancialCentre Emergenceanddevelopment 1945–1965 CatherineR.Schenk

32. ImpedimentstoTradein Services Measurementandpolicy implication

EditedbyChristoperFindlay andTonyWarren

33. TheJapaneseIndustrial Economy

Latedevelopmentandcultural causation

IanInkster

34. ChinaandtheLongMarchto GlobalTrade TheaccessionofChinatothe WorldTradeOrganization

EditedbyAlanS.Alexandroff, SylviaOstryandRafaelGomez

35. CapitalistDevelopmentand EconomisminEastAsia TheriseofHongKong, Singapore,Taiwan,andSouth Korea

Kui-WaiLi

36. WomenandWorkin GlobalizingAsia

EditedbyDong-SookS.Gills andNicolaPiper

37. FinancialMarketsandPolicies inEastAsia

GordondeBrouwer

38. Developmentalismand DependencyinSoutheastAsia

Thecaseoftheautomotive industry

JasonP.Abbott

39. LawandLabourMarket RegulationinEastAsia

EditedbySeanCooney,Tim Lindsey,RichardMitchelland YingZhu

40. TheEconomyofthe Philippines Elites,inequalitiesandeconomic restructuring

PeterKrinks

41. China’sThirdEconomic Transformation Theriseoftheprivateeconomy

EditedbyRossGarnautand LigangSong

42. TheVietnameseEconomy Awakeningthedormantdragon

EditedbyBinhTran-Namand ChiDoPham

43. RestructuringKoreaInc. Jang-SupShinandHa-Joon Chang

44. DevelopmentandStructural ChangeintheAsia-Pacific Globalisingmiraclesorendofa model?

EditedbyMartinAnderssonand ChristerGunnarsson

45. StateCollaborationand DevelopmentStrategiesin China

ThecaseoftheChina–Singapore SuzhouIndustrialPark (1992–2002) AlexiusPereira

46. CapitalandKnowledgeinAsia Changingpowerrelations

EditedbyHeidiDahlesandOtto vandenMuijzenberg

47. SoutheastAsianPaperTigers? Frommiracletodebacleand beyond

EditedbyJomoK.S.

48. Manufacturing CompetitivenessinAsia Howinternationallycompetitive nationalfirmsandindustries developedinEastAsia

EditedbyJomoK.S.

49. TheKoreanEconomyatthe Crossroads

EditedbyMoonJoongTchaand Chung-SokSuh

50. EthnicBusiness ChinesecapitalisminSoutheast Asia

EditedbyJomoK.S.andBrian C.Folk

51. ExchangeRateRegimesin EastAsia

EditedbyGordondeBrouwer andMasahiroKawai

52. FinancialGovernanceinEast Asia Policydialogue,surveillanceand cooperation

EditedbyGordondeBrouwer andYunjongWang

53. DesigningFinancialSystemsin EastAsiaandJapan

EditedbyJosephP.H.Fan, MasaharuHanazakiandJuro Teranishi

54. StateCompetenceand EconomicGrowthinJapan YoshiroMiwa

55. UnderstandingJapanese Saving Doespopulationagingmatter? RobertDekle

56. TheRiseandFalloftheEast AsianGrowthSystem, 1951–2000 Internationalcompetitiveness andrapideconomicgrowth XiaomingHuang

57. ServiceIndustriesandAsiaPacificCities Newdevelopmenttrajectories

EditedbyP.W.Daniels,K.C.Ho andT.A.Hutton

58. UnemploymentinAsia

EditedbyJohnBensonandYing Zhu

59. RiskManagementand InnovationinJapan,Britain andtheUnitedStates

EditedbyRuthTaplin

60. Japan’sDevelopmentAidto China Thelong-runningforeignpolicy ofengagement TsukasaTakamine

61. ChineseCapitalismandthe ModernistVision SatyanandaJ.Gabriel

62. JapaneseTelecommunications Marketandpolicyintransition

EditedbyRuthTaplinand MasakoWakui

63. EastAsia,Globalizationand theNewEconomy F.GerardAdams

64. ChinaasaWorldFactory EditedbyKevinHonglinZhang

65. China’sStateOwned EnterpriseReforms AnindustrialandCEOapproach JuanAntonioFernandezand LeilaFernandez-Stembridge

66. ChinaandIndia Ataleoftwoeconomies DilipK.Das

67. InnovationandBusiness PartneringinJapan,Europe andtheUnitedStates

EditedbyRuthTaplin

68. AsianInformalWorkers Globalriskslocalprotection SantoshMehrotraandMario Biggeri

69. TheRiseoftheCorporate EconomyinSoutheastAsia RajeswaryAmpalavanarBrown

70. TheSingaporeEconomy Aneconometricperspective TilakAbeyshingeandKeenMeng Choy

71. ABasketCurrencyforAsia EditedbyTakatoshiIto

72. PrivateEnterprisesand China’sEconomic Development

EditedbyShuanglinLinand XiaodongZhu

73. TheKoreanDevelopmental State

Fromdirigismetoneo-liberalism IainPirie

74. AcceleratingJapan’sEconomic Growth ResolvingJapan’sgrowth controversy

EditedbyF.GerardAdams, LawrenceR.Klein,Yuzo KumasakaandAkihikoShinozaki

75. China’sEmergentPolitical Economy Capitalisminthedragon’slair EditedbyChristopherA. McNally

76. ThePoliticalEconomyofthe SARSEpidemic Theimpactonhumanresources inEastAsia GraceO.M.LeeandMalcolm Warner

77. India’sEmergingFinancial Market Aflowoffundsmodel TomoeMoore

78. OutsourcingandHuman ResourceManagement Aninternationalsurvey

EditedbyRuthTaplin

79. Globalization,LaborMarkets andInequalityinIndia DipakMazumdarandSandip Sarkar

80. GlobalizationandtheIndian Economy Roadmaptoaconvertiblerupee SatyendraS.Nayak

81. EconomicCooperation betweenSingaporeandIndia Anallianceinthemaking FaizalYahya

82. TheUnitedStatesandthe MalaysianEconomy ShakilaYacob

83. BankingReforminSoutheast Asia

Theregion’sdecisivedecade MalcolmCook

84. TradeUnionsinAsia Aneconomicandsociological analysis

EditedbyJohnBensonandYing Zhu

85. TradeLiberalisationand RegionalDisparityinPakistan MuhammadShoaibButtand JayatillekeS.Bandara

86. FinancialDevelopmentand EconomicGrowthinMalaysia JamesAng

87. IntellectualPropertyandthe NewGlobalJapaneseEconomy RuthTaplin

88. LaggardsandLeadersin LabourMarketReform ComparingJapanandAustralia

EditedbyJennyCorbett,Anne Daly,HisakazuMatsushigeand DehneTaylor

89. InstitutionsforEconomic ReforminAsia

EditedbyPhilippaDee

90. SoutheastAsia’sCredit Revolution Frommoneylendersto microfinance AdityaGoenkaandDavid Henley

91. EconomicReformand EmploymentRelationsin Vietnam NganThuyCollins

92. TheFutureofAsianTradeand Growth Economicdevelopmentwiththe emergenceofChina LindaYueh

93. BusinessPracticesinSoutheast Asia

Aninterdisciplinaryanalysisof TheravadaBuddhistcountries ScottA.Hipsher

94. ResponsibleDevelopment Vulnerabledemocracies,hunger andinequality OmarNoman

95. TheEverydayImpactof EconomicReforminChina Managementchange,enterprise performanceanddailylife YingZhu,MichaelWebberand JohnBenson

96. TheRiseofAsia Tradeandinvestmentinglobal perspective Prema-chandraAthukorala

97. IntellectualProperty, InnovationandManagement inEmergingEconomies

EditedbyRuthTaplinandAlojzy Z.Nowak

98. SpecialEconomicZonesin AsianMarketEconomies

EditedbyConnieCarterand AndrewHarding

99. TheMigrationofIndian HumanCapital

TheebbandflowofIndian professionalsinSoutheastAsia FaizabinYahyaandArunajeet Kaur

100. EconomicDevelopmentand InequalityinChina

ThecaseofGuangdong HongYu

101. TheJapanesePharmaceutical Industry

Itsevolutionandcurrent challenges

MakiUmemura

102. TheDynamicsofAsianLabour Markets

Balancingcontrolandflexibility

EditedbyJohnBensonandYing Zhu

103. Pakistan–ThePolitical EconomyofGrowth, StagnationandtheState,1951 to2009

MatthewMcCartney

104. KoreanWomenManagersand CorporateCulture

Challengingtradition,choosing empowerment,creatingchange JeanR.Renshaw

105. TradeLiberalisationand PovertyinSouthAsia

EditedbyPrema-Chandra Athukorala,JayatillekeS. BandaraandSamanKelegama

106. Pro-poorGrowthand LiberalizationinDeveloping Economies

ThecaseofNepal SanjayaAcharya

107. ChinaandtheGlobal Economyinthe21stCentury

EditedbyJohnSaee

108. StateStructureandEconomic DevelopmentinSoutheastAsia

Thepoliticaleconomyof ThailandandthePhilippines AntoinetteR.Raquiza

109. AnEconomicHistoryof Indonesia 1800–2010 JanLuitenvanZandenand DaanMarks

110. TaxationinASEANandChina Localinstitutions,regionalism, globalsystemsandeconomic development

EditedbyNolanCormac Sharkey

111. MacroeconomicandMonetary PolicyIssuesinIndonesia AkhandAkhtarHossain

112. EconomicReformProcessesin SouthAsia Towardpolicyefficiency

EditedbyPhilippaDee

113. ManufacturingEnterprisein Asia

Sizestructureandeconomic growth

DipakMazumdarandSandip Sarkar

114. ManagersandManagementin Vietnam 25yearsofeconomicrenovation (doimoi)

VincentEdwardsandAnhPhan

115. NewModelsofHuman ResourceManagementin ChinaandIndia

AlanR.Nankervis,FangLee Cooke,SamirR.Chatterjeeand MalcolmWarner

116. SustainingDevelopmentand GrowthinEastAsia

EditedbyTimoHenckel

117. SmallandMediumEnterprises inIndia

Infirmitiesandasymmetriesin industrialclusters

SatyakiRoy

118. WorkforceDevelopmentand SkillFormationinAsia

EditedbyJohnBenson,Howard GospelandYingZhu

119. UnderstandingManagementin China

Past,presentandfuture MalcolmWarner

120. ReformandProductivity GrowthinIndia Issuesandtrendsinthelabour markets

DibyenduMaiti

121. IntellectualPropertyValuation andInnovation Towardsglobalharmonisation

EditedbyRuthTaplin

122. MarketingandConsumption inModernJapan

KazuoUsui

123. EconomicGrowthand EmploymentinVietnam

DavidLim

124. AsianFinancialIntegration Impactsoftheglobalcrisisand optionsforregionalpolicies

EditedbyYipingHuangand ShiroArmstrong

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EconomicGrowthand EmploymentinVietnam

DavidLim

Firstpublished2014 byRoutledge

2ParkSquare,MiltonPark,Abingdon,Oxon,OX144RN

andbyRoutledge

711ThirdAvenue,NewYork,NY10017

RoutledgeisanimprintoftheTaylor&FrancisGroup,aninformabusiness

©2014DavidLim

TherightofDavidLimtobeidentifiedasauthorofthisworkhasbeen assertedbyhiminaccordancewiththeCopyright,DesignsandPatentAct 1988.

Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthisbookmaybereprintedorreproducedor utilisedinanyformorbyanyelectronic,mechanical,orothermeans,now knownorhereafterinvented,includingphotocopyingandrecording,orinany informationstorageorretrievalsystem,withoutpermissioninwritingfrom thepublishers.

Trademarknotice:Productorcorporatenamesmaybetrademarksor registeredtrademarks,andareusedonlyforidentificationandexplanation withoutintenttoinfringe.

BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData AcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary

LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationData Lim,David,author. EconomicgrowthandemploymentinVietnam/DavidLim. pagescm

Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex.

ISBN978-0-415-51944-1(hardback)—ISBN978-1-315-81901-3(ebook) 1.Jobcreation—Vietnam.2.Laborsupply—Effectofeducationon— Vietnam.3.Economicdevelopment—Vietnam.4.Vietnam—Economic conditions.I.Title. HD5822.5.A6L562014 331.1209597—dc23 2013038177

ISBN:978-0-415-51944-1(hbk)

ISBN:978-1-315-81901-3(ebk)

TypesetinTimesNewRoman byFiSHBooksLtd,Enfield

ToDee

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Illustrations

Figures

4.1Non-linearrelationshipbetweeneconomicgrowthandinflation45

10.1ThenationaleducationsystemofVietnam 128

10.2Alog-frameforthehighereducationsector 139

Tables

1.1AnnualgrowthratesofrealGDPandrealGDPpercapitaofselected Asianeconomies,1990–2010 6

1.2Annualgrowthratesofrealvalueaddedinagriculture,industryand services,1990–2010 8

1.3Grossdomesticsavingratio,grossdomesticinvestmentratioand inflationrateforselectedAsianeconomies,1990–2010 9

1.4Annualexportandimportgrowthrates,1990–2010 10

1.5Foreigndirectinvestment:levelandasshareofGDP,1990–201011

1.6Centralgovernmentexpenditureandrevenue,andcentralgovernment’s fiscalbalanceratioforselectedAsianeconomies,1990–201013

2.1HDI:World,EastAsiaandthePacific,medianandVietnamfor selectedyears 15

2.2HDI:Vietnam’sHDIranksandrelativepositions,1990–201116

2.3MillenniumDevelopmentGoalsandtargetsfor2015 18

2.4Countrieson-trackandoff-trackforMDGs 20

2.5IndicatorsofMDGs 21

2.6AbsoluteandrelativeoverallprogressontheMDGs:top20achievers22

2.7Absoluteandrelativeprogress,andrankinginindicatorsforselected MDGs,1990–2008 23

2.8Ginicoefficientsofdistributionofpercapitaincome 24

2.9Incomedistributions,2000–11 25

2.10HDIadjustedforinequalityinlifeexpectancy,educationandincome26

2.11HDI,lifeexpectancy,educationandincomeadjustedforinequality, 2011 26

3.1Employment-outputelasticity,Vietnam,1997–2008 32

xviii Illustrations

4.1GDPgrowth,inflationandbudgetdeficit,2001–12,Vietnam41

4.2Targetsforkeymacroeconomicvariables(asofDecember2011)42

4.3IMFpolicystatementsoninflationin19developingcountries: examplesfromtheArticleIVconsultationprocess 43

4.4Cross-countrythresholdstudies

4.5Country-levelthresholdstudies

5.1MilestonesinVietnam’stradedevelopmentandexternalrelations55

5.2Averagetariffsandeffectiveratesofprotectionbyinput-output industry,1998

5.3Sourcesofemploymentgrowthinmanufacturing,Vietnam,1995–9 and2000–8 58

5.4EffectiveratesofprotectioninmanufacturinginselectedEastAsian countries,1970–2004 60

5.5Vietnam:Effectiveratesofprotectionandkeyindicatorsofthe manufacturingsector 62

5.6Growthoftotalexportsandkeymanufacturedexports, 2002–May2008

6.1Countrycomparisonsofvalue-addedperworkerinmanufacturing andagriculture

6.2Decompositionofemploymentgrowthbytypeoffirm 70

6.3ComparativeFDIflowsinVietnamandotherdevelopingcountries71

6.4IndicatorsofimportanceofFDIinVietnam 73

6.5ExportsbycountryandVietnam’sexportsbycommodity 75

6.6ForecastedimpactonrealGDPgrowthandjobloss,Vietnam,2009 and2010 76

6.7Fiscalstimulusmeasures,2009

6.8BudgetasproportionofGDP,2009

6.9DirectionofdevelopingAsia’stradeinpartsandcomponents, 1994–2006 82

7.1Numberandpercentofenterprisesatthesub-sectorlevel,200986

7.2ShareofSOEsinrevenueandoutputbysector

7.3Financialperformancesbyenterprisetype,2007–9

7.4Comparisonofefficiency,2000and2008 89

7.5Capital/labourratiosofenterprisesbyownership,2005

7.6Capitalintensitybyenterprisetype,2000and2008

8.1Numberofenterprises,2000–8

8.2Numberandgrowthrateofenterprisesbylegalstatus,2004–7101

8.3Employmentbylegalstatus,2000–8 102

8.4Percentageshareofemploymentbylegalstatus 103

8.5Selectedindicatorsofenterprisedevelopmentbylegalstatus,2000 and2007 104

8.6Employmentbyinstitutionalsectorandarea,2007and2009106

8.7Projectionsofemploymentbyinstitutionalsector,2015 107

9.1ConstraintsondoingbusinessinVietnamandEastAsia 116

9.2Firmsreportingdifficultyinhiringlocalstaff,Vietnam 116

9.3Firmsreportingdifficultyinhiringlocalstaff,Vietnamandselected ASEANeconomies

9.4Jobvacanciesbyoccupationandeconomicsectorinasampleof businessestablishments,2005

9.5Distributionofworkforcebyskilllevel,1998–2011

9.6GDPandlabourforcebyeconomicsector,1996–2010

9.7ProportionofhighlyskilledlabourandR&Dexpenditurefor manufacturingindustry,2000–4

10.1Numberofhighereducationinstitutionsbytypeandownership, 1999–2009

10.2Grossenrolmentratiofortertiaryeducation

10.3Percentageoftertiaryeducationenrolmentbysubject,2005132

10.4Graduatesbybroadfieldsofstudy,2005and2010

10.5Proportionofacademicstaffwithhigherqualifications

10.6Tertiaryeducationstudent-staffratio,2000–10

10.7CompetitivenessIndex,VietnamandselectAsiancountries,2012–13136

10.8Governancestructureofhighereducationinstitutions

11.1QualificationslevelsinTVETsystem

11.2NumberofTVETstudentsbyownership,2001–11

12.1GDPgrowth,inflationandsocialindicatorsduringtransition, 1989–95

Preface

Sincethe doimoi economicreformsinitiatedin1986tocreatea‘socialistorientedmarketeconomy’,Vietnamhasachievedspectacularresultsonthe economicfront,withrapidgrowthinitsrealGDP,exports,foreigndirectinvestment,domesticprivateinvestment,andasignificantsheddingofpoorly performingstate-ownedenterprises.Ithasalsodoneverywellonthehuman developmentfront,withmostofthetargetssetfortheUnitedNations’ MillenniumDevelopmentGoalsmet,especiallyonreducingtheincidenceof poverty.Itearnedmuchpraisefrominternationaldevelopmentagenciesandindependentobserversalike,andbecametheenvyofmanydevelopingeconomies.

Muchofthissuccesshasbeenduetothecentrepieceoftheeconomicreforms, thepursuitofanexport-orientedindustrializationstrategythatseeksalsoto attractforeigndirectinvestment,integrationintotheglobaleconomy,andaccessiontotheWorldTradeOrganization.

However,thereisanegativesidetothisdevelopmentsuccess.Therehasbeen difficultyinkeepinginflationundercontrolandthestate-ownedsectorisstill large,withasignificantproportioncontinuingtoperformbadly.Thecreationof workthatisproductiveanddeliversafairincome,importantforwhatthe InternationalLabourOrganizationcalls‘decentemployment’,hasalsobeenless satisfactory.Youthunemploymentishighandis,asinotherdeveloping economies,probablyunderstated.Theagriculturalsectorprovidesworkthatis oftensharedandhaslowproductivity.Thecapacityofthemanufacturingsector toabsorblabourislowandbelowthatofotherASEANeconomies.Theservice sectorhasexpandedbutitslowproductivityreflectsthefactthatitisonlythe sectoroflastresortwhenallelsehasfailed.

Thepoor‘decentemployment’recordmaymeanthatthemuch-vaunted achievementinreducingtheincidenceofpovertymaybelessthanitseems.A significantpercentageofthelabourforceremainsvulnerable,withincomesthat aresoclosetothepovertylinethatonlyasmallriseinexpenditureorfallin incomewillpushthembelowit.Amidstthisisironicallyagreatshortageof skilledworkers,whichholdsbacktherateofindustrialgrowth,ahighrateof whichisneededtoprovidejobsfortheexpandinglabourforce.

Thisbookexaminestheimpactofthe doimoi andotherpoliciesontheeconomybutwithparticularemphasisonthecreation‘decentemployment’,asthisis

Preface xxi

stillthebestwaytoeliminatepovertyandraisethelivingstandardofthepopulation.Thecrucialimportanceofemploymenttotheeconomicandsocial developmentprocesshasbeenrecognizedintheWorldBank’s World DevelopmentReport2013,whichhaschosenthecreationofjobsasitscentral theme.InthecaseofVietnam,asitspopulationiscloseto90million,whichis oneofthelargestinAsia,anditsworkingagepopulationnearly70million,failuretoprovideworkwillaffectthelivesofmany,whichcouldaffecttherestof theregion.

PartIexaminestheeconomicandhumanresourcedevelopmentperformances ofVietnam,payingparticularattentiontoemploymentcreation.PartIIexamines howthemacroeconomicmanagementframework,policiesonindustry,tradeand foreigndirectinvestment,globalizationandbusinessregulationsaffectthe creationofjobs.PartIIIexaminesthecapacityofthehighereducationandtechnical-vocationaleducationandtrainingsectorstodealwiththeshortageofskilled workers,andthushelpVietnamtoavoidthemiddle-incometrap.PartIVprovides someconcludingremarks.

SomeofthematerialforthisbookcamefromtwostudiesIdidforthe InternationalLabourOrganization(ILO)whileIwaswithGriffithUniversity. ThesecondstudywasproducedasoneofthebackgroundpapersforthepreparationofVietnam’s Five-yearSocio-EconomicDevelopmentPlan2011–2015.Iam gratefultoYanIslamoftheILO(Geneva)forgettingmeinvolvedinthestudies andalsoforhisguidanceandusefulcomments.Inthisrespect,Iwouldalsolike tothankPhuHunyhoftheILOinBangkokforhiscommentsonthefirststudy. AndtheofficesoftheILO,UNDPandInstituteofResearchandDevelopmentin HanoiweregenerouswiththeirtimeandhelpwhileIwasdoingfieldworkthere.

IamalsogratefultomywifeDeeandSamZhi,myformerPhDstudentin GriffithUniversity,forprovidingvaluableresearchassistance.Deealsoprovided muchneededsupportduringthefinalstagesofwritingthisbook,whichwas carriedoutwhenIwasbusyhelpingtheVocationalTrainingCouncilofHong KongtosetupitsTechnologicalandHigherEducationInstitute,whichoffers vocationally-orientednichedegreeprogrammes,andevenbusierastheInstitute’s foundingPresident/ViceChancellor.Andlastbutnotleast,Iwouldliketothank MiyukiNg,myexecutiveassistant,forproducing,amonghermanyotherduties, thetypescriptwithefficiencyandgoodcheer.

DavidLim

TechnologicalandHigherEducationInstitute HongKong

ProfessorEmeritus GriffithUniversity Australia 20May2013

Abbreviations

ADBAsianDevelopmentBank

ASEANAssociationofSouthEastAsianNations

CEECentralandEasternEurope

CIECentreforInternationalEconomics

CIEMCentralInstituteofEconomicManagement

CPRGSComprehensivePovertyReductionandGrowthStrategy

DBRDoingBusinessReport

FDIForeigndirectinvestment

FIEForeign-investedenterprise

GCGeneralCorporation

GDPGrossdomesticproduct

GDVTGeneralDepartmentofVocationalTraining

GSOGeneralStatisticsOffice

ICAInvestmentClimateAssessment

ICSInvestmentClimateSurvey

ILOInternationalLabourOrganization

IMFInternationalMonetaryFund

ILSSAInstituteforLabourStudiesandSocialAffairs

JETROJapanExportTradeOrganization

MDGMillenniumDevelopmentGoal

MOETMinistryofEducationandTraining

MOLISAMinistryofLabour,InvalidsandSocialAffairs

MPIMinistryofPlanningandInvestment

NISNewlyIndependentStates

PCIProvincialCompetitivenessIndex

SBVStateBankofVietnam

SCICStateCapitalInvestmentCorporation

SEDPSocio-EconomicDevelopmentPlan

SEGStateEconomicGroup

SMESmallandmedium-sizedenterprise

SOCBState-ownedcommercialbank

SOEState-ownedenterprise

STARSupportforTradeAcceleration

Abbreviations xxiii

TFPTotalfactorproductivity

TVETTechnical-vocationaleducationandtraining

UNCTADUnitedNationsConferenceforTradeandDevelopment

UNDPUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme

UNESCOUnitedNationsEducation,ChildrenandScienceOrganization

UNICEFUnitedNationsChildren’sFund

USAIDUnitedStatesAgencyforInternationalDevelopment

VASSVietnamAcademyofSocialSciences

WTOWorldTradeOrganization

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PartI

Economicandnon-economic performances

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1Economicperformances

Pre-1986period

DuringtheFrenchcolonialperiod,Vietnamoperatedasaclassiccolonialexport economy,producing,onthebasisofcomparativeadvantage,primarycommodities(e.g.coal,rubber,tobacco,indigo,teaandcoffee)forexporttoFranceand otherpartsoftheindustrializedWest,inreturnforessentialfoodsandmanufacturedgoods.However,thedevelopmentpathsdecidedforthenorthernand southernpartsofthecountryweredifferent.Industrialdevelopmentwastobe concentratedinthenaturalresource-richNorth,withrailroads,roads,power stationsandhydraulicworksconstructed,ashipbuildingindustrycentredin Hanoistarted,andsomeextractiveindustries(e.g.coal,ironandnon-ferrous metals)developed.Inaddition,whileirrigatedriceremainedtheprincipalsubsistencecrop,plantationagriculture(e.g.rubber,coffee,tea,cottonandtobacco) wasintroduced.TheSouth,whichwasbettersuitedforagriculture,wasdevelopedassuch,withricethemaincrop,whileindustryconsistedmostlyof food-processingplants,andfactoriesproducingconsumergoods.Thedevelopmentofexportsofmainlycoal,riceandrubber,andimportsofFrench manufacturedgoodsstimulatedinternalcommerce,resultinginricefromthe SouthbeingexchangedforcoalandmanufacturedgoodsfromtheNorth.

Therewerenoeconomicreasonstointerferewiththisclassicalcommodity exporteconomy.Thefewcustomsdutiesandexcisetaxesimposedwereprimarilyforcollectingrevenueforprovidingpublicgoods(e.g.street-lightingand education),andforcontrollingtheconsumptionofproductsconsideredharmful (e.g.alcoholandopium).Inessence,itwasafreetraderegimewhichservedthe French,whoneededrawmaterialsandamarketforFrenchmanufacturedgoods, well.

SuchacolonialexporteconomywasfoundalsoinmanyBritishcolonies(e.g. Malaya,CeylonandGhana),whereinternationaltradenotonlyactedasa‘vent forsurplus’bylinkingotherwiseidlenaturalresourcestostrongexternaldemand (Myint,1958)butalsoledtostaticefficiencythroughtheoptimumallocationof existingcapitalandlabour,anddynamicefficiencythroughtheinflowoftechnologyandforeigncapitalandlabour.However,therewasanegativesidetosuch apatternofdevelopment.Thedependenceonprimarycommoditiesandtheir

exportinanunprocessedformnotonlymeantthatthecountry’sprosperity dependedimportantlyonforcesoutsideitscontrolbutalsothedevelopmentofa dualeconomicstructurewheretheexportsectorandtherestoftheeconomyhad verylittletodowitheachother.Inaddition,evenwhentheunderlyingdemand fortheprimarycommoditieswasstrong,theirlowpriceelasticityofdemandand volatiledemandwouldleadtoinstabilityinexportearnings.Thiscould,inturn, increasethecostofdoingbusiness,reduceinvestorconfidence,anddisrupt governmentspendingonessentialservicesandimportantinfrastructuralprojects, allofwhichcouldbedetrimentaltothelong-termgrowthoftheeconomy.

DuringtheSecondWorldWar,theVietnameseco-operatedwiththeWestin fightingtheJapanese.AfterthedefeatoftheJapanese,anindependent DemocraticRepublicofVietnamwasdeclaredon2December,1945,onlyforthe Frenchtoreasserttheircolonialauthority.ThisresultedinthefirstIndochinaWar from1946to1954thatendedwiththedefeatoftheFrenchatDienBienPhuin May,1954.The1954GenevaAgreementsprovidedforaceasefirebetween communistandanti-communistnationalistforces,thetemporarydivisionof Vietnamatapproximatelytheseventeenthparallelbetweentheprovisionalnorthern(communist)andsouthern(non-communist)zonegovernments,andthe evacuationofanti-communistVietnamesefromnortherntosouthernVietnam. TheagreementsalsocalledfornationalelectionsinJuly1956tobringthetwo provisionalzonesunderaunifiedgovernment.However,theUnitedStatesand theSouthVietnameseGovernmentopposedthis,whichledtothecontinuationof thedivide,theVietnamWarbetween1959and1975,andmassivedestructionto theeconomyandcountry,andlossoflife.Vietnamwaseventuallyunifiedwith thefallofSaigonon30April,1975.

Forthefirst11yearsafterunification,Vietnamoperatedacentrally-planned economybasedonthedevelopmentmodelusedintheUSSRanditsEast Europeanallies,wheretheStatecontrolledallthemajorsectorsoftheeconomy, decidedwhattoproducetoachievenationalandsocialobjectivesandthe resourcestouse,anddistributedallproductionmaterialsandconsumergoods throughthestatedistributionsystem.Exceptionstopervasivestatecontrolwere few,thenotableonesbeingthe5percentofagriculturallandsetasideforpeasantsforindividualfamilyuse,andtheoperationofsmallshopsandsimple marketsfordirectsales.Whilethissystembroughtaboutsocialequality,ithadall theclassicproblemsofacommandeconomy.Thediverseandchangingneedsof societywerenotmetandunwantedgoodsaccumulated.Pricesweredistortedand scarceresourcesmisallocated.Dynamism,innovationandcreativity,crucialfor economicgrowth,werestifledandallbutdisappeared.Theguaranteeofjobsand freehousing,educationandhealth-careservicesnotonlyproducedadependency mentalitybutalsoconsumedtheresourcesneededforinvestmentandfuture growth.Inaddition,bureaucratizationincreasedandwithitcamerent-seeking activitiesanddead-weightlossestotheeconomy.

Asaresult,labourproductivitywasverylow,andwastesinproductionand economicactivitiesmassive.TheeconomystagnatedandeventhoughVietnam wasanagriculturally-basedcountry,itcouldnotproduceenoughfoodforits

populationandhadtoimportsignificantvolumesoffood.Thesituationwas worsenedbytheAmericaneconomicembargoimposedafterthefallofSaigon, andthecampaigntoremovetheKhmerRougeregimefromCambodiastartingin December1979.ItwasalsonothelpedbythefactthatVietnam’sinternational economicrelationswerealmostentirelywiththeUSSRanditsEasternEuropean allies,whoseownpoorlyruneconomiesgavetheVietnameseGovernmentafalse senseofeconomicefficiency.

Theeconomylimpedalong,helpedbytheeconomicassistanceprovidedby theUSSRanditsallies.However,whenthisaiddisappearedafterthemid-1980s withthecollapseoftheseeconomies,theVietnameseeconomywasincrisis.By theendof1986,inflationreachedastaggering775percent,thestandardofliving wasabysmal,andtherewasnolongeranyvirtueorpoliticalpropagandavaluein beingequallypoor.

Post-doimoi period

InDecember1986,theGovernmentintroducedanextensivereformprogramme tocreateasocialist-orientedmarketeconomytocorrecttheeconomicshortcomings.Themajorcomponentsofthereform,knownas doimoi,translatedliterally as‘restoration’,aretherecognitionofthelegitimacyandrightsoftheprivate sector,theabandonmentoftheSoviet-typecentrallyplannedeconomicmodel, andtheestablishmentoftheStateasanadministrative,ratherthananeconomic, player.Specificmeasuresincludedliberalizingthedomesticmarket,encouraging foreigndirectinvestment(FDI)andtheprivatesector,andreducingthesubsidies tostate-ownedenterprises(SOEs).Agriculturallandremainsstate-ownedbutis distributedtopeasanthouseholdsforlong-termuse.Thesechangesresultedin privatehouseholds,nationalinvestorsandforeigninvestorsaccountingfor60per centoftheGDPin2008and90percentofthelabourforcein2009.

Thestatesectorstillplaysadominatingroleinthecommandingheightsofthe economysuchasenergy,themajornaturalresources,heavyindustry,communication,railways,aviationandpublictransport,andbankingandinsurance.Italso playsanactiveroleinareasthathaveasignificantimpactonlargesocialgroups, suchasconstruction,productionoffertilizer,constructionmaterialsandessential consumergoods,lightindustry,andtradinginagriculturalproducts.Thismeans thatthestatesectorstillaccountedfor34percentoftheGDPin2008,withthe collectivesectoraccountingforanother6percent.Theirsharesinthelabour forcein2009were10.0percentand0.5percentrespectively.

Thesereforms,whilenotexactlyturningVietnamintoamarketeconomy,did resultinverysignificantimprovementsfrom1990onwardinanumberofkey economicperformanceindicators.Theyear1990wasusedasthestartingpoint becauseearlierdatawereunreliableandtimewasneededfortheeffectsofthe doi moi reforms,introducedattheendof1986,tobefeltinasignificantway.The otheryearsare1995,2000,2005and2010.Comparisonisovertwoperiods: 1990–5,toshowtheimmediateimpactofthereforms,whichcouldbevery dramaticastheeconomywasabletooperatefreeofmanyofthestricturesofa

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The Project Gutenberg eBook of Baharia Oasis

This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States and most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included with this ebook or online at www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the United States, you will have to check the laws of the country where you are located before using this eBook.

Title: Baharia Oasis

Its topography and geology

Author: John Ball

H. J. L. Beadnell

Release date: April 10, 2024 [eBook #73366]

Language: English

Original publication: Cairo: National Printing Department, 1903

Credits: Galo Flordelis (This file was produced from images generously made available by the HathiTrust Digital Library/Cornell University)

SURVEY DEPARTMENT, PUBLIC WORKS MINISTRY EGYPT.

BAHARIA OASIS:

ITS TOPOGRAPHY AND GEOLOGY

CAIRO

NATIONAL PRINTING DEPARTMENT 1903

„ III. — THE ROADS CONNECTING THE OASIS OF BAHARIA WITH THE NILE VALLEY AND WITH OTHER O

PLATE I. Map of the Oasis geologically coloured at end

„ II. — Sketch Map showing Position of the Oasis „

„ III. Villages and Principal Sources of Water „

„ IV. — Section through Western Escarpment, 11 kilometres north of south end of Depression „

„ V. Diagrammatic Section from hill 15 kilometres northeast of Ain el Haiss to the Eocene-Cretaceous junction on desert to west „

„ VI. — Section from Mandisha through Jebel Mayesra and Conical Hill to Western Plateau „

„ VII. Map of the Synclinal fold from Jebel Hefhuf to its termination in the Western Plateau, 13 kilometres north-west of Ain el Haiss „

„ VIII. Sketch sections of Eastern Scarp „

FIG. 1. Section across Syncline, 12½ kilometres north-west of Ain el Haiss 66

„ 2. Sketch shewing probable relations of Eocene and Cretaceous in Anticline on Western Desert Plateau, 11½ kilometres north-west of El Qasr 69

PREFACE

The geological examination of the Oases of the Libyan Desert was commenced in 1897, when two parties were sent out to Baharia Oasis, one under the charge of Dr. Ball, who, with Mr. G. Vuta as topographer, started from Minia and explored the eastern half of the area, while Mr. Beadnell with Mr. L. Gorringe as his topographer started from Maghagha and examined the western side of the oasis. The expeditions commenced work in October, and mapping on the scale of ¹⁄₅₀₀₀₀ the whole area was surveyed before the end of the year. The return traverses were made to Minia by the first party via Farafra to Assiut by the second. The following chapters and maps set forth the results of this joint exploration, certain gaps being filled from the data of Ascherson.

BAHARIA OASIS

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