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Perhaps there was too much initial hype, making it look now like consumers are not following the trend.
Charged: What is the weakest link in the development of vehicle electrification? SG: Cost efficiency in the EV/HEV industry is definitely problematic. If most of the EV/HEV products were within the $20,000-30,000 range, demand from the market would increase dramatically. Another weak link in the development of vehicle electrification is range anxiety. This depends largely on the common drive pattern, the availability of a charging infrastructure, and to a certain extent the income of the individual or family. A family with only one car is unlikely to go electric if they live in an area without a dense infrastructure to support their drive patterns, or to permit the occasional holiday trip. Geography plays a key role: for example, in Europe, longer trips can easily be made by rail. Charged: What is the real potential for commercial vehicle fleet electrification? SG: Electrification makes the most sense for a fleet operation or for vehicles that drive in the city. Consider the frequent use of stop-start by medium and light duty trucks with high utilization rates and defined routes and destinations. Parcel delivery companies like UPS,
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FedEx, or mail services are perfect candidates. If MPG is increased, they would have a higher return of investment than in long-distance semi-trucks. However, the cost of electrification will be higher compared to the passenger vehicle market. Currently, electrification presents standards-driven solutions without being optimized for the individual application. In the next few years, electrification for commercial vehicles will be optimized with improved technologies, and the market will grow substantially. Charged: What segments of the EV industry do you think will see the strongest growth?
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There needs to be a shift in focus away from pure production and sales number planning to start concentrating on how to make EV/HEV products more attractive for the end customer.
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JAN/FEB 2013 79