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SAP HANA Intelligent Transportation System Analysis in Moscow Team “Mujeres Desesperadas” Volodymyr Serdechniuk Vitalii Zhukov Olga Gladuniak Dmytro Karpov

13 april 2014

The creation of ITS will improve Moscow social image, reduce the accident rate and increase the income of city budget Executive summary •

•

•

Moscow transportation system needs improvement of safety, social and economic issues Consideration of the following questions will fulfill those needs:  Problems solved by ITS  Risks and opportunities  SAP HANA architecture  Integration into the existing concepts Proposed initiatives will allow to create more safe and socially attractive image of Moscow

Sources: team analysis

Implementation of ITS will result in $590m profits and will reduce the number of congestions and travelling time, improve ecology, will be supported by local citizens and increase the income of city budget.

ITS deployment will face both risks (legislation, long implementation) and opportunities (increase in public transport reliability and road transport safety), however, the latter dominates the former.

Partnership of SAP and TMS will reduce time “en route” in peak hours by 25% and number of accidents by 17%, increase average peak hour speed by 60% and will allow SAP to earn $4.6b of revenues Total investments of $2.53m to the construction of 318 advanced traffic lights, 1030 information screens, 600 parking machines and 7600 road signs will lead to full integration of ITS into the existing transportation concepts

The implementation of ITS will solve the most vital problems of Moscow transport system and will allow to concentrate on the prospective future projects which will develop the image of Moscow even further (e.g. development of bicycle space).

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Implementation of ITS optimizes and improves transport system of Moscow and brings $590 m annually Transport System Problems Traffic congestions

High accident frequency rate

High road maintenance costs

Problems Improvements Initiatives solved        

  

ITimplementation

` Restrictions Optimization

Social

Air

tension

pollution

Costs

Profits

GPS in transport Control, payment automating Mobile Software Wi-Fi

$2,42 m1) Covered by HANA Covered by HANA

$114 m annually 3)

Control of the number of cars Paid entry in center Cargo carriage restrictions

Covered by HANA $280,5 m2) Covered by HANA

$450 m annually 2)

Management of ingoing/ outgoing transportation means Control over transportation means Price differentiation in parking

Covered by HANA Covered by HANA $1 m4)

Results

$26mln annually 4)

1)

-estimation of Sirius services 3) -annual road bribes - reduced travel time HANA – $1 b annually costs on SAP HANA 2) 4) - Reduced -estimation based on British experience - estimation based on Moscow experiment in 2013 - budget benefits - reduced pollutions - citizens approval - reduced congestions - investors undertake the costs - social benefits costs

ITS eliminates road bribes, reduces congestions, air pollution and costs. Besides, it improves image of Moscow and contributes to the budget Sources: www.sirius.su/price, mosgortrans.ru, www.zr.ru, glonass-system.ru, case materials, team estimates

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ITS implementation is faced by moderate risks, however, they may be partially mitigated and opportunities overwhelmingly dominate them

Low

III

I

II

Risk mitigation 1.Insure unexpected costs rise 2.Increase citizens’ awareness of ITS effectiveness through media 3.Implement ITS after adoption of all necessary laws by Moscow city council 4.Develop an elaborate schedule of ITS project implementation

Risk matrix ITS almost for sure will face several risks with moderate or low severity

High

IV

High

Promptness

Severity

Opportunities 1. Reduction of maintenance costs for road and transport complex 2. Increase in road transport safety 3. Decrease in average travel time 4. Increase in public transport reliability 5. Improvement of ecological situation in the city 6. Shaping a positive image of Moscow 7. Rise of investment flows to Moscow

Impact

Low

High

4

1

3 2

7

5

6

Low

Low

Likelihood

High

Risks I. High costs of project implementation may imply non-profitability II. Specific elements of ITS may face citizens disapproval (e.g. collecting tolls for entering the city center, video surveillance) III. Legislation may be a major institutional constraint slowing the deployment of the project IV. Long-lasting project implementation

Opportunity matrix

ITS offers significant opportunities both short term and long term

The opportunities of the ITS project deployment heavily overweight the potential risks both in quantitative and qualitative terms.

Sources: tvrain.ru/story, vozduh.msk.ru ,team estimates

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Implementation of HANA will increase the mobility of citizens by 25%, decrease the amount of traffic accidents by 17% and will allow SAP to earn $4.6b of revenues Transport process modeling allows to solve the following problems Issues

Initiatives by SAP

Results

Main effects

Travel time



Transport and passenger flow modeling Passenger transport route coordination

 

Average time en route in Peak Hours

Automated notification of drivers of SDA violation Operational reaction on accident





Traffic accidents

 

Increase of citizens mobility Traffic facilitation

67

50

min

min

2012



Reduction of the number of accidents Reduction in road deaths

2020

Average traffic accidents per month 940

9%

2009

Traffic jams

 

 

Informing drivers about situation on the road “Smart” traffic light regulation

Decline of time spent in jams Increased bandwidth of roads and intersections

 

1024 Terabytes of high capacity hardware Real-time Analytics Advanced Software

2020

15

 

Traffic facilitation Decrease in time-consuming of parking place search

21 Km/h 2020

Average speed near Parking

30

36

Km/h 2012

  

714

Km/h

Parking place search Drivers’ maintenance by GPS

Concerning these issues SAP can offer partnership with TMS for 2015-2020 years and propose Database as a Service built on top of HANA

2013

17%

Average Peak Hours’ speed

2012

Parking

860

Km/h 2020

Support from Moscow budget •

Discounted CF ($m) 990

920

850

790

730

670

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Sourse: case materials, dt.mos.ru, saphana.com , lta.gov.sg

•

Discount rate 8,15%(Russian bonds) Payments $1b per year for 6 years.

PV=$4.6b 5

ITS integration in Moscow will be achieved by increase in the number of advanced traffic lights, information screens and parking payment devices đ?&#x;?

đ?&#x;?

ITS Architecture Advanced Traffic Management Service Advanced Traffic Information Service

Electronic Fare Payment System

Advanced Public Transportation Service

More advanced traffic lights to be installed

Needs improvement

More information screens to be installed

ITS Service

Commercial Vehicle Operation

Responsibility: Situation Centre of TMS of Moscow City

ITS Moscow

Responsibility: TMS of Moscow City

Advanced Traveler Information Service Legend:

Needed

Advanced Vehicle and Highway Service

Number of information screens in Moscowđ?&#x;?

2016

Parking systemđ?&#x;‘ •

1000

1698

•

More information screens to be installed

Responsibility: TMS of Moscow City

Installed

Number of advanced traffic lights in Moscowđ?&#x;?

•

Moscow Current Infrastructure

Additional 318 traffic lights need to be installed Costs: $ 1k – one $ 318k - total

150 •

•

Additional 850 information screens need to be installed Costs: $ 670 – one $ 570k – total

• 1.

2.

3. •

Increase the number of payment devices at parking places in Moscow To install: 180 information screens 600 parking machines 7600 road signs Costs: $1.64m

Perspective projectđ?&#x;? • Investment project “Reconstruction and development of Small Ring of Moscow Railwayâ€?. Effect: 142m of passengers in 2017 • Development of bicycle space Total effect: reduction in the pressure on Moscow transport system in both public and private sectors

$2.53m to construction of additional advanced traffic lights, information screens and parking payment devices will create modern ITS in Moscow.

Sources: 1 ) its.go.kr/ENG, 2) dt.mos.ru, case materials, 3) team estimates

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Our creative mind and analytical background allow us to find comprehensive solutions to any problems Serdechniuk Volodymyr

KSE MA Student, Economic Analysis Bachelor of Math at Shevchenko KNU

Zhukov Vitalii

KSE MA Student, Economic Analysis Bachelor of Statistics at Shevchenko KNU

Gladuniak Olga

Karpov Dmytro

KSE MA Student, Economic Analysis Bachelor of International economics at Shevchenko KNU

KSE MA Student, Economic Analysis Bachelor of Statistics at Shevchenko KNU

Integrated ITS into the existing concepts

Identified the scope and estimated the impacts of ITS Implementation

Evaluated risks and opportunities

Analyzed SAP HANA architecture

Changellenge Moskow Cup 15% Quality Award (2013)

Changellenge Moskow Cup 15% Quality Award (2013)

Riga Peak-Time Finalist (2012)

Changellenge SPB Cup Finalist (2013)

+38(097)771-87-91 vserdechniuk@mail.ru

+38(063)604-00-35 zhvv92@gmail.com

+38(098)707-26-46 olga.gladuniak@gmail.com

+38(050)729-09-95 karpovdmytro@gmail.com

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